Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of VERBUND AG. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participants have difficulties hearing the conference, please press star key followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. May I now hand you over to Peter Kollmann, who will lead you through this conference. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, Andreas Wollein and I would like to welcome you to our presentation for the first quarter 2021, and I would like to thank you for joining today's conference call. Before we move into analysis of our business development, I'd like to make a few general comments about the first quarter. The year 2021 started well for VERBUND, with relevant energy market conditions improving, despite COVID-19. Electricity wholesale prices improved above all due to rising prices for CO2 certificates, and of course, the strong commitment from EU member states towards a comprehensive decarbonization of our energy system. As I said, COVID-19 had no detrimental effect on our strategy and on the execution of our strategy. In addition, we have reached two important milestones. Number one, we decided to go ahead with Limberg III, which is a very large pumped-storage power plant with a capacity of 480 MW in the Alps, an investment cost of approximately EUR 0.5 billion. The second milestone is, to support our very strong, sustainable track record, we placed a very innovative EU taxonomy-aligned green and sustainability-linked bond with a 20-year maturity, senior unsecured, with an amount of EUR 0.5 billion. We had very high demand of an oversubscription 4.4x. We had a very positive echo across the world for this global innovation. Against this background, let me now present the figures for the first quarter 2021. At the beginning, let me highlight the most important influencing factors. Based on our hedging strategy for our own electricity generation from hydropower, the average achieved contract price was higher compared to the first quarter 2020. It increased by EUR 1.7- EUR 47.6. The hydro coefficient, as you know, determining the generation from run-of-river hydropower plants, was lower than the long-term average and considerably lower than in the first quarter 2020. We also saw slightly lower contributions from flexibility products in all categories of those products except intraday trading. The results development was also negatively influenced by lower contributions from the grid segment. Now, the impact of these influencing factors on the key figures is as follows. EBITDA decreased by 8.6% to EUR 302 million. The group result decreased by 7.6% to EUR 144.7 million. The operating cash flow was at a level of EUR 203, the free cash flow was positive at a level of EUR 35.3 million. That allowed us to reduce the debt level further. Net debt decreased by 2.3% to a level of EUR 8.838 billion. Let me now give you our adjusted outlook for the business year 2021. The adjustment is caused by higher expected average achieved contract prices. We now expect an EBITDA between approximately EUR 1.13 billion-EUR 1.3 billion and a group result between approximately EUR 480 million-EUR 590 million. The payout ratio will be between 45% and 55% of the adjusted group result. As always, the guidance is under the assumption of average hydro and wind generation for the remaining quarters, as well as the chances and the risks which we incur in our business model. On the next page, a few charts which will explain how the influencing factors on the results development in slightly more detail. With regard to the hydro coefficients, we saw slightly higher levels in January compared to last year. Much lower levels in February and March. At 0.99, the hydro coefficient, which as you know is an index quantifying the hydropower generation of the run-of-river power plants, was 1 percentage point below the long-term average, but, and that is a huge number, 10 percentage points below the level of the first quarter 2020. In addition, the production from annual storage power plants also decreased by approximately 15% due to less turbining. Own production from hydropower therefore decreased by 760 GWh or 11% compared to the first quarter 2020. Generation from thermal power plants was down by 77% or 444 GWh, stemming from decreased use of our CCGT Mellach for congestion management. Generation from wind power also decreased by 62 GWh or close to 20% due to less favorable wind conditions in Austria, Germany and Romania. A second important influencing factor on our results are, of course, the average achieved contract prices. At the end of the first quarter 2021, based on our hedging strategy, we achieved an average contract price of EUR 44.9 for 2021, whereas for the full year 2020, we achieved EUR 44.6. Please note that we have already hedged approximately 77% of the volumes for 2021 in the first quarter. On a mark-to-market basis, and this is important, as of 26th of April 2021, we calculate with a price of close to EUR 49. You know that ± EUR 1 has a sensitivity of approximately EUR 25 million in our EBITDA line. On the next page, on our flexibility products, as you know, this is a major trend in the new energy world, with increasing volatility in the European grid system that comes from the massive development of renewables and will continue. With our very flexible asset base consisting of CO2-free, low-cost pumped-storage power plants and the most modern CCGT in Austria, I think we are very well positioned to benefit from this trend through the sale of flexibility products. After a result of approximately EUR 32 million in the first quarter 2020, we registered a value of approximately EUR 31 million in the first quarter of 2021, so almost the same level. The slight decrease results from lower contributions literally in all flexibility products except for intraday trading. Please also note that since October 2018, our Mellach CCGT has been put into a strategic reserve mechanism under which we receive a fixed capacity payment and a payment for the generation. As a consequence, we were able to change an unpredictable, volatile cash flow against a quasi-regulated, secure, stable cash flow for a period of three years. For 2021, we maintain our previous guidance for all flexibility products of approximately EUR 90 million. On the next page on APG, Austrian Power Grid. You know that APG is of very high importance for the group. It has a growing importance in the European grid system. It is also important because of its regulated character. We have shown you here on the chart, on the left-hand side, a comparison between the EBITDA according to local GAAP and the EBITDA according to IFRS. We have discussed many times before that because of IFRS, there is an increased volatility, which we would like to bring back to the kind of local GAAP numbers which we have. We are in discussions, or we have been in discussions with the IFRS board for many years, to basically accept a regulatory account which we have in local GAAP, also in IFRS. Things are moving in the right direction and maybe within the next two years, we are going to have a regulatory account in IFRS as well, which takes out the volatility of the numbers. In terms of the grid guidance, again, same as with the flexibility products, we maintain our guidance of approximately EUR 180 million for 2021. Please note that the current regulatory period, which started at the beginning of 2018, with a WACC of average 5%, will end in 2022, and from that point onwards, we will have a new regulatory period. The regulatory asset base for 2021 is approximately EUR 1.9 billion, but we have a very strong growth in the regulatory asset base over the next few years. Andreas Wollein will take us through the key financial figures and through our financial liability situation. Please, Andreas. Thank you, Peter. Going to slide seven, you see again the development of our most relevant financial key figures. EBITDA decreased by EUR 28.4 million or 8.6%. The decrease is attributable to the hydro segment, which was EUR 25 million lower compared to Q1 2020, mainly because of lower hydro volumes coming from our run-of-river power plants. New renewables and the grid segment were also down by around EUR 9 million and EUR 3 million, mainly due to less favorable wind conditions in all our markets in which we are active in, and lower contributions from the congestion management and of course,(cross- border product capacity auctions in the grid segment. All other segments and the sales segments were higher by around EUR 3.4 million and EUR 8.3 million compared to Q1 2020. The increase in the sales segment is coming from higher contributions from sales to end customers due to lower purchasing costs. Depreciation remained equal, but the financial result improved significantly, from -EUR 10 million to +EUR 3 million. This was mainly attributable to the other financial result, due to the positive measurement of securities according to IFRS 9. The lower earnings contributions from interest accounted for using the equity method had a negative effect. Lower interest expenses because of the bond repayments in 2020 showed a clear positive effect. The group result therefore decreased by around EUR 12 million to seven or 7.6%. The EBITDA margin increased strongly to a level of around 45%. EBIT margin also increased, from a level of around 19% to around 31%. The reason for this was mainly a strong decline in the electricity revenue. This effect can be attributed primarily to the recognition of changes in the value of electricity derivatives in profit or loss in accordance with IFRS 9. The offsetting measurement effects are presented under the procurement cost, the valuation doesn't have any impact on the results development. Finally, I would like to mention the additions to tangible assets, which were based on our CapEx plan above the previous year's level at around EUR 100 million. The additions concerned mainly the hydropower plant building in Bavaria and Germany, as well as our major grid investments. Moving on to slide eight, you see the development of the operating cash flow, which was down compared to the first quarter 2020, showed a decrease of 31.7% to EUR 203 million, mainly due to margining payments in our electricity trading business. The free cash flow showed a decrease from EUR 150.2 million to a level of EUR 35 million. Costs are lower. The aforementioned lower operating cash flow as described before, and increased investment activities. Net debt decreased slightly to around EUR 1.839 billion. The gearing decreased from 27% at the end of 2020 to 26% at the end of the first quarter 2021. Moving on to slide nine, mentioning a few words about the development of the financial liabilities. You see here the debt maturity profile, which shows a total repayment of only EUR 30 million in 2021, with a peak in 2024, which is based on the repayment of a fixed-interest bond amount of EUR 500 million. We also see that we have sufficient financial flexibility granted by our EUR 500 million syndicated loan facility, which is undrawn, and is available until 2023. The total amount of our financial liabilities is currently around EUR 826 million. The average interest rate on our debt is around 2.3%. 95% of our debt is subject to fixed interest rates. In 2021, the development of the external ratings of VERBUND was stable so far. S&P rating of VERBUND AG remained unchanged at single A flat stable outlook. Moody's rating also remained unchanged at a level of A3 stable outlook. The rating development is a result of the numerous measures VERBUND has taken in the past to increase cash flows and the improving market environment of our business model. Let me hand over to Peter again for presenting the CapEx plan. Thank you, Andreas Wollein. The total CapEx for the three-year period from 2021- 2023 is EUR 2.25 billion, split into growth CapEx of EUR 1.37 billion and maintenance CapEx of EUR 884 million. The main part of the growth CapEx, approximately EUR 728 million, will be invested into the regulated grid business, especially into the 380- kV Salzburg line, in order to increase the capacity to integrate new renewables and better address the volatility and congestion in the grid system. In addition, VERBUND is also investing into new renewable projects and selected hydropower plants. The investments relate to Austria and Germany. In addition to the growth CapEx, we are planning to invest around EUR 884 million in maintenance between 2021 and 2023. Please note that the CapEx plan does not include the acquisition of Gas Connect Austria, nor the hydropower plant Limberg 3, as those two were based on our midterm planning. Now, on the next page, the outlook. As you know, key parameters for the development of our operational business are prices and hydro volumes. At the end of the first quarter 2021, we hedged approximately 29% of our hydro generation at an average price of EUR 49.2 for 2022, which is approximately EUR 4.6 above the level of the full year 2020. On a mark-to-market basis, as of the 26th of April, the average achieved price for 2022 would be at a level of EUR 56.9, which is approximately EUR 12.3 above the 2020 level. We have also hedged approximately 13% of our hydro generation for 2023 at an average price of EUR 55. The mark-to-market valuation shows a level of EUR 58.4 for 2023. With regard to the year-to-date hydro situation, we have to report a hydro coefficient of 0.91, which is 9% below the long-term average. On the basis of the aforementioned developments, the guidance for the full year 2021 is an EBITDA of approximately between EUR 1.13 billion and EUR 1.3 billion, and the group result is approximately between EUR 480 million-EUR 590 million. Of course, under the assumption of average hydro and wind generation for the remaining quarters of the year. For the entire year 2021, VERBUND plans to pay out between 45% and 55% of the group result after adjustment for non-recurring effects. As always, at this point, I would like to highlight the sensitivities. A deviation of ± 1% in the generation from hydropower has an impact of ± EUR 7 million in the result. A deviation of ± 1% in the generation from wind power has an impact of EUR 0.4 million in the group result, and a deviation of ±EUR 1 in the wholesale price has an impact of EUR 3.6 million in the group result, as we already have a very high hedging level for 2021. With that, we have come to the end of our presentation, and Andreas and I will be ready to receive your questions. Please. Dear ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our question and answer session. If you have a question, follow speaker one and press star one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced. You can ask the question. If you find your question answered before your turn to speak. You can zero two to cancel your question. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. One moment please for the first question. First question received is from Lueder Schumacher of Société Générale. Your line is now open, sir. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. Two quite specific questions on my side and one general one. The first one is, you mentioned, Peter Kollmann, the hydro coefficient year to date is 0.91. Quite low, obviously. Is that mainly due to a delayed snow melt, freezing temperatures, or unseasonably low temperatures lasting longer than usual, i.e., it's very likely to normalize going forward? The second one is on new renewables. Are you making any progress in terms of capacity additions? Are you currently participating in any auctions for solar or wind? The more general question is on the general market development. You're probably just leaning back. I can almost see the champagne corks popping. Carbon at EUR 55. German Calendar Year 20 22 is trading at EUR 68. We had cold weather conditions, some strange things going on in the German market as well. Gas plants not available, coal becoming a swing producer. What do you make out of all of this? Can European energy markets still deal with the winter that is, well, wintery, i.e., cold, unlike the previous three winters? How do you see fuel commodities and power prices going forward? Well, first of all, I have to say that my personal profit and loss, i.e., Peter Kollmann's profit and loss, is going to go down, because on the last conference call, I said that I would pay for a nice lunch in Paris, if CO2 prices would go to where they went now. I must say that I have been wrong in terms of my predictions. That is, of course, very good news for VERBUND. I will comment on the more general question which you asked, but before that, I would like to comment on your other two questions. On the 0.91, yes, it is low, and yes, you're right. It is a result of delayed melting of snow. That would have been great for the tourist season. Because of COVID-19, all the skiing facilities in Austria were closed. Nobody really took advantage of the cold weather and the snow, which lasted much longer than in previous years. You're right that it will normalize, because it will get warmer and the snow will come down. We just have a delayed effect. Again, climate is extremely difficult to predict. Are we going to have a very dry fall or a very wet fall? We just don't know. If we take everything into consideration, obviously we calculate on the basis of average hydro conditions for the rest of the year. In terms of the new renewables, as you know, we have been quite active in terms of participating in M&A processes. We also have looked at some potential development projects. On the inorganic, i.e., on the M&A front, we have not been successful. The main reason is that we have not deviated from our discipline, i.e., it is always possible to justify an investment by simply changing the power curve or by changing the duration of the asset or discount rate. All that has a huge impact on the IRR calculation. That is something we have not done. As a result of that, we have not been successful in winning on any of those M&A processes, although we continue to focus on that area. What we have done is we have gone into a joint venture with a very large landowner in Germany. There we are planning to develop approximately 1,500 MW of solar in Germany. That is a medium-term project. Now, on the more general question, I'm quite surprised about the large increase of CO2 prices. The power price, of course, is a function of the large increase in CO2 prices and in commodity prices. We see a situation that is currently very hard to predict. We are going to have some EU action in June, which is going to be interesting to observe. I give you my personal opinion, as always on those conference calls, I think that there is a lot of speculative activity in the CO2 price, because traders and hedge funds think that the CO2 price has just more momentum on the upside than on the downside, given the political framework. Some people comment that it will be very difficult for politicians now to argue for a lower CO2 price. People think that it might well go up to EUR 60. We are cautious. Why? If the CO2 price and if power prices go up, we have a very positive impact in terms of our business. If the CO2 price goes down, from where it is today, we are well prepared, which I think is important from a business point of view. Longer term predictions of power prices, by definition, are very hard. I would like to make a comment which I have made before, and which I think is getting more valid. We have now not only seen from German industry, but also from the Federation of the French industry, that they have seen and written and discussed with the political leadership in those countries, that it is very hard for an industry which is already suffering through COVID-19, to deal with the very high power prices. They basically argue that the power price and the entire climate action should not be solely focused on that specific area, but it should take a broader perspective. What do they mean? They basically mean that it is not just the energy production which is responsible for CO2 emissions, but it is agriculture, it is traffic, it is buildings, it is heating, it is many other aspects. They feel that all those other aspects need to be taken into consideration as well, and the focus purely on CO2 should be decreased in order to get to a more competitive level and power prices for the industry. I think that is a very valid argument. This is something that is going to be discussed a lot within the next 6 to 12 months, and certainly, a place which we need to observe. Very interesting. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, before we take the next question, just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press the zero one on your telephone keypad. The next question is from Wanda Serwinowska of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open, madam, please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon. Wanda Serwinowska, Credit Suisse. As you asked two of my question, I got only one. I would like to ask about the pipeline, because you are growing the renewables outside Austria. You mentioned 1.5 GW to be built. Can you share more details? Can you share the timeline? How much money do you want to spend? I assume it's not included in your CapEx program so far. What returns are you looking for? If you could give us the WACC number, IRR number of WACC plus spread, what is the EBITDA contribution, and do you really expect to build 100% of the pipeline? Any details would be much appreciated. Thank you. Today, when you go to the area where we have entered this joint venture with the landowners, what you will see is agricultural fields and nothing else. We are at the very beginning of a project there. We still need to get access to the grid. We need to build, we need to develop. I'm more than happy to give you a number in terms of the framework which we're looking at. We have announced that we would be developing approximately 1.5 GW, as you have mentioned. I give you a very rough framework in terms of CapEx. It would be around EUR 500 million, and CapEx is actually below that, but I just want to give you a round figure. The returns which we're looking at is, we're looking at returns which are obviously above our WACC, in order to generate EVA. The WACC which we are currently using is around 4%, and we have a hurdle rate for this project above the 4%. I will not give you a detailed figure for reasons of competitiveness and for reasons of still being at the very early stages of this. If we can develop more in that region, the landowners which we have entered the agreement with own much more land than the 1,500. If this cooperation works well, which I'm currently assuming, there would be the potential to do much more. The one thing which we should not forget is that in Germany we have 1,000 hours of sun, whereas in other regions of Europe, we have 2,000 hours, like in Spain. However, the Spanish market has proven to be very expensive at the moment, which is the reason why we have not been successful yet, because we were not willing to, what I would consider overpaying for pipeline or existing projects. Thank you very much. A very quick follow-up. You said EUR 500 million of CapEx per GW or for 1.5 GW? For 1.5 GW. Okay, so it's a bit lower. Okay. Is it fair to assume that you can put the first megawatts in a two-year time, given that you are at the very beginning of the journey, and are you looking to sign any PPAs, given that the PPA market has started to develop in Europe? No, that is a very interesting one. We are observing the PPA market in Central Europe very carefully. As you know, Central Europe is much slower in the development of a PPA market than Spain. Spain has a very well-established PPA market, and in Germany it is only starting. If we were able to enter interesting long-term PPAs in Germany, that is something we would definitely look at. The very last thing, do you expect more upside on the capacity in Germany, given the target announced by the German government to accelerate a net zero target, or is it still too early to say? You mean the target for the renewable build-out or the CO2 reduction target? I mean the CO2 reduction, because if Germany wants to become carbon neutral by 2045, they need to double or triple or they need to really increase the renewables build-out in Germany. Do you see much more upside there, or is it still too early to say? Me personally, I'm critical about those numbers. I still see huge challenges. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. As we receive no further questions, I hand back to Mr. Kollmann. Yes. I would like to thank you as always for a very interesting discussion. Andreas and I will always be available should you have any further questions or if there are any additional points which you would like to discuss. With that, please stay healthy, get vaccinated, hopefully quicker than we here in Austria, and very much look forward to seeing you all, hopefully in person, over the next six months. All the best. Bye. Dear ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.
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