Slides
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APA Group Macquarie Australia Conference May 2025 Moomba Wilton Pipeline, 1968 (now Moomba Sydney Pipeline) For personal use only
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Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 2 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by APA Group Limited (ACN 091 344 704) as responsible entity of the APA Infrastructure Trust (ARSN 091 678 778) and APA Investment Trust (ARSN 115 585 441) (APA Group). The information in this presentation does not contain all the information which a prospective investor may require in evaluating a possible investment in APA Group and should be read in conjunction with the APA Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements which are available at www.apa.com.au. All references to dollars, cents or ‘$’ in this presentation are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated. Not financial product advice: APA Group Limited is not licensed to provide financial product advice in relation to securities in APA Group. This presentation is for information purposes only and is not financial product or investment advice or a recommendation to acquire APA Group securities and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making an investment decision, you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek professional advice if necessary. Past performance: Past performance information should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Forward looking statements: This presentation contains forward looking information, including about APA Group, its financial results and other matters, which is subject to risk factors. “Forward -looking statements” may include indications of, and guidance on, future earnings and financial position and performance, statements regarding APA Group’s future strategies and potential capital expenditure, statements regarding estimates of future demand and consumption, the future gas market and potential pricing and statements regarding APA’s sustainability and climate transition plans and strategies, the impact of climate change and other sustainability issues for APA, energy transition scenarios, actions of third parties, and external enablers such as technology development and commercialisation, policy support, market support, and energy and offsets availability. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward -looking words such as, 'expect', 'anticipate', 'likely', 'intend', 'could', 'may', 'predict', 'plan', 'propose', 'will', 'believe', 'forecast', 'estimate', 'target', 'outlook', 'guidance’, ‘goal’, ‘ambition’ and other similar expressions and include, but are not limited to, forecast EBIT and EBITDA, free cash flow, operating cash flow, distribution guidance and estimated asset life. At the date of this presentation, APA Group believes that there are reasonable grounds for these forward looking statements and due care and attention has been used in preparing this presentation. However, the forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions and are subject to risk factors associated with the industries in which APA Group operates. Forward-looking statements, opinions and estimates are not guarantees or predictions of future performance and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of APA Group, and may involve significant elements of subjective judgement and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not materially differ from these forward -looking statements, opinions or estimates. This information is based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change. APA Group assumes no obligation to update or revise this forward looking information and to the maximum extent permitted by law, APA Group, its officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of such information. Estimates: A number of important factors could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, opinions and estimates. These factors include: general economic conditions; exchange rates; technological changes; the geopolitical environment; the extent, nature and location of physical impacts of climate change; changes associated with the energy market transition; and government and regulatory intervention, including to limit the impacts of climate change or manage the impact of Australia’s transitioning energy system. There are also limitations with respect to climate scenario analysis, and it is difficult to predict which, if any, of the scenarios might eventuate. Scenario analysis is not an indication of probable outcomes and relies on assumptions that may or may not prove to be correct or eventuate. Investors should form their own views as to these matters and any assumptions on which any forward-looking statements, estimates or opinions are based. APA Group assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect any change in expectations, contingencies or assumptions, whether as a result of new information or future events. To the maximum extent permitted by law, APA and its officers do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information contained in this presentation. Investment risk: An investment in securities in APA Group is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of APA Group. APA Group does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of APA Group. Non-IFRS financial measures: APA Group results are reported under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). However, investors should be aware that this presentation includes certain financial measures that are non-IFRS financial measures for the purposes of providing a more comprehensive understanding of the performance of the APA Group. These non-IFRS financial measures include FCF, EBIT, EBITDA, and other “normalised” measures. The non-IFRS financial information is unaudited, however the numbers have been extracted from the financial statements which have been subject to review by the auditor. Not an offer: This presentation does not constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for or purchase any security. For personal use only
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Acknowledgement of Country At APA, we acknowledge the Traditional Owners and Custodians of the lands on which we live and work throughout Australia. We acknowledge their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respects to their Elders past and present, and commit to ensuring APA operates in a fair and ethical manner that respects First Nations peoples’ rights and interests. Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 3 For personal use only
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APA Group: 25 years of securing Australia’s energy future Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 4 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 2001* 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Growing distributions every year since 2004 (CPS) * 2001 calculated from the period of initial listing to the end of the financial year i.e. 13 June 2000 to 30 June 2001For personal use only
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Today’s key takeaways Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 5 01. FY2025 Underlying EBITDA ($1,960m - $2,020m) and DPS (57.0cps) guidance reaffirmed 4 02. 03. Strong market fundamentals. Role of gas confirmed well beyond 2050,1 with increasing demand for gas infrastructure capacity $100bn+ addressable market2 supporting long-term growth opportunities APA strategy remains unchanged Disciplined prioritisation on value accretive organic growth projects including Pilbara decarbonisation initiations, East Coast Gas Grid expansion and Beetaloo Operating cash flow, DRP and strong balance sheet provide ample funding for APA’s ~$1.8bn organic growth pipeline3 Ongoing operating cash flow and numerous capital management alternatives available to fund further growth opportunities 1. Includes Australian Energy Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2024, ACCC Gas Inqu iry Report Q1 2025 and Australian Government, Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Future Gas Strategy, May 2024. 2. Estimated addressable market sizes in Australia. Estimates are based on a number of key assumptions, including in relation to macroeconomic factors, future technology advancements and costs, market demand, regulatory requirements and government policies and there can be no assurance that the estimates are accurate. The actual addressable market size may dif fer materially from the estimates because events frequently do not occur as projected. 3. Estimated organic growth capital expenditure pipeline reflects management’s current expectations based on project design and is subject to change up to final investment decision and agreement on definitive documents. Actual expenditure in each year will depend on project commitments and timing, and may differ from estimates. Refer to slide 13 of this pack for the sources and uses of cash FY25 -FY27. 4. Underlying EBITDA and distribution guidance are subject to asset performance, macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes. I t does not take into account the impact of any acquisitions or divestments by APA. Guidance is not a predictor or guarantee of future performance and is subject to uncertainty and risks – please see Disclaimer on page 2. For personal use only
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Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 6 Our strategy to be the partner of choice in delivering infrastructure solutions for the energy transition remains unchanged $30bn $57bn $10bn $21bn Estimated Addressable market size1 APA’s strategy is focused on four asset classes Strategy positions APA to capitalise on Australian energy market dynamics Customer decarbonisation ambitions, with gas to remain a critical part of the future energy mix Renewables replacing coal, with increased gas/battery firming capacity and new electricity transmission infrastructure required Gas supply source shifting from southern to northern markets, with new sources of gas needed 1. Estimated addressable market sizes in Australia. Estimates are based on a number of key assumptions, including in relation to macroeconomic factors, future technology advancements and costs, market demand, reg ulatory requirements and government policies and there can be no assurance that the estimates are accurate. The actual addressable market size may differ materially from the estimates because events frequently do not occur as projected. For personal use only
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Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 7 Continued successful delivery of organic growth beyond the ~$1.8bn pipeline 1 will support the focus on delivering sustainable ongoing distribution growth Gas transmission and storage Contracted power generation - Remote Contracted power generation - GPG Electricity transmission • East Coast Gas Grid Expansion Plan Stages 3-5 • Ongoing lateral and gas storage investment to support GPG • Beetaloo Basin bringing critical new supply to NT and the east coast • Decarbonising mining in the Pilbara with renewables, firming and transmission (4GW pipeline of potential projects) • Further opportunities in Mt Isa and Kalgoorlie mining regions • East Pilbara Network (EPN) • Contracted GPG on east and west coasts of Australia • Supporting renewables firming requirement for 13GW of new GPG capacity • Connecting renewable energy zones in VIC and NSW • Strategic partnership with EDF Group (via Verta Energy JV) • Significant organic growth opportunities that deliver attractive returns above hurdle rates (targeting returns materially above APA’s post-tax WACC) • Customer engagement well advanced across all opportunities listed above • Funding of growth opportunities beyond the current ~$1.8bn organic growth pipeline1 will include consideration of all capital management initiatives including partnering (e.g. currently partnering with EDF Group) and asset recycling 1. Estimated organic growth capital expenditure pipeline reflects management’s current expectations based on project design and is subject to change up to final investment decision and agreement on definitive documents. Actual expenditure in each year will depend on project commitments and timing, and may differ from estimates. Refer to slide 13 for the forecast sources and uses of cash FY25-FY27. For personal use only
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1. As evidenced within Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2024, ACCC Gas Inquiry Rep ort Q1 2025 and Griffith University’s CAEEPR Report on electrification of gas loads in Australia’s National Energy Market, December 2024. 2. Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2025. AEMO’s step change scenario is noted as its ‘most likely’ scenario and hence has been used in APA analysis. Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 8 Demand for gas forecast to be strong beyond 2050 with increasing demand for gas infrastructure capacity Stable long term demand for gas with forecast consumption shifting to Gas-Powered Generation (GPG), driven by electrification including AI and data centres. This shift calls for more flexible supply and storage to meet seasonal and peak demand periods1 AEMO projected annual East Cost gas demand (step change scenario)2 AEMO GPG forecast consumption on East Coast (step change scenario)2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Negligible decline in gas demand underpinned by strong industrial demand and electrification PJ 89 PJ 190 PJ 2025 2043 2.1x growth in GPG demand will underpin existing pipeline capacity and drive further growth For personal use only
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9 Incremental expansion of APA’s East Coast Gas Grid can secure supply out to ~2034 and avoid southern market gas shortfalls AEMO supply/demand balance for the pipeline upgrades and expansions option in 2033(step change scenario)1 • Expansion of East Coast Gas Grid (ECGG)3 with storage would avoid gas supply shortfalls • There is no predicted shortfall until 2034 under AEMO modelling, inclusive of ECGG expansions stages 3 and 4 • 2034 is the first structural shortfall predicted by AEMO and APA’s stage 5 would address this • Australia’s East Coast has sufficient domestic gas reserves and resources to avoid gas shortfalls and ensure there is a strong LNG export market Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 AEMO 2025 GSOO total volume of domestic reserves and resources1 1. Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2025. AEMO’s step change scenario is noted as its ‘most likely’ scenario and hence has been used in APA analysis. 2. Years of supply calculated as 2025 GSOO domestic reserve / resource divided by 2024 actual production per 2025 GSOO (Figure 2 7). 3. For details about APA’s East Coast Gas Grid expansion plan, refer to the ASX release dated 24 February 2025. 2P developed 16,982 PJ 2P undeveloped 14,987 PJ 2C 37,915 PJ Domestic reserves / resources 2 19 Years of supply 8 Years of supply 9 Years of supply 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jan-33 Feb-33 Mar-33 Apr-33 May-33 Jun-33 Jul-33 Aug-33 Sep-33 Oct-33 Nov-33 Dec-33 TJ per day Total southern production Iona storage - injecting Storage Southern demand For personal use only
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10 APA aims to deliver incremental expansion of its East Coast Gas Grid 1 to meet customer demand while delivering strong returns for investors • Immediate expansion and medium-term projects (subject to customer commitments) propose to add capacity to APA’s East Coast Gas Grid for every year over the five year period • Additional APA capacity for north to south supply, coupled with other expansions across the grid, is expected to meet AEMO’s annual forecast gas supply shortages in southern markets • Unlocking northern Australia gas supply will help avoid the Australian market importing higher cost, higher emissions LNG With these expansions, there is no need to enter into long-term LNG import supply commitments Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 1. For details about APA’s East Coast Gas Grid expansion plan, refer to the ASX release dated 24 February 2025. For personal use only
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11 Unlocking access to future supply sources, commencing with the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin • Beetaloo Basin has promising lower cost, lower emissions gas compared to LNG import terminals and certain other domestic supply sources • Given the size and quality of the resource, Beetaloo is expected to have ample capability to efficiently service domestic East Coast gas demand • This could be delivered through a new pipeline transporting gas from the Beetaloo to Ballera • Potential for Beetaloo to also supply gas, in excess of domestic requirements, to LNG export markets via Gladstone and/or Darwin • In the immediate term, APA will build, own and operate the Sturt Plateau Pipeline (SPP) to connect the Tamboran Resources’ (Tamboran) operated Shenandoah South Pilot Project to the Amadeus Gas Pipeline, NT • SPP is the first of a number of potential pipeline projects that APA intends to partner with customers to transport gas out of the Beetaloo Basin • ~60% of the Northern Territory’s gas supply from 20261 is forecast to come from Tamboran’s first pilot gas development Indicative APA Northern Australia gas transmission and storage connections Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 1. Refer to APA ASX Announcement ‘APA signs project agreements for the development of the Sturt Plateau Pipeline in the Northern Territory’ release on 17 December 2024. For personal use only
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1. Represents the targeted returns over post tax WACC that APA uses when making any financial investment decision for a particul ar project. Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 12 Creating securityholder value through the deployment of capital where we can generate attractive financial returns Indicative target returns above our post tax WACC1Prioritisation of projects Contracted Power Generation Gas Transmission and Storage Electricity Transmission Strategic fit and APA competitive advantage Value creation Financial considerations • Target returns above hurdle rates, reflecting underlying risk of the project • Appropriate payback period • Credit metrics (FFO / Net debt) • Impact to Free Cash Flow and distributions per security For personal use only
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Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 13 ~$1.8bn organic growth capex pipeline3 includes contracted power generation and gas transmission and storage projects as highlighted in APA’s FY24 Full Year Results Presentation, slide 16. • Targeting organic growth opportunities with returns at a material premium to WACC and which reflect the underlying risk of the project • FFO / net debt (10.7%) at 1H25 (31 December 2024) implies additional debt capacity at $1.6bn2 • Ongoing growth in operating cash flow provides further funding capacity • Focused on optimising APA’s cost base with targeted reduction initiatives (both operational and corporate costs) • Foundational investments well progressed, with focus now on extracting efficiencies • Significant diversified funding sources with establishment of hybrid program • Established partnership with EDF Group to support growth. Marubeni partnership long established, and will consider other partners for future growth • Recommenced Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) in FY24 • Continuing to explore asset recycling options Forecast sources and uses of cash FY25 - FY271 Ample capacity to fund the ~$1.8bn organic growth pipeline over FY25 -27 through operating cash flow, existing balance sheet capacity and DRP 1. Forecast sources and uses of cash reflect management’s current expectations. They are based on management’s view of the curre nt and anticipated needs of APA Group in the relevant financial year. They are subject to review and change from time to time. See the Disclaimer on page 2 of this presentation for further details regarding forward -looking statements. 2. Funds From Operations (FFO) / Net Debt and FFO/Interest calculated in line with S&P methodology. Historical ratios have been revised reflecting S&P revisions to the historical calculations. Debt capacity is based on the 12 month rolling FFO at the balance sheet date and APA’s target FFO/net debt of 9.5%. 3. Estimated organic growth capital expenditure pipeline reflects management’s current expectations based on project design and is subject to change up to final investment decision and agreement on definitive documents. Actual expenditure in each year will depend on project commitments and timing, and may differ from estimates. Existing ~$1.8bn organic growth capex pipeline SIB / Foundation Capex Distributions Operating cash flow DRP Balance sheet funding capacity Significant existing balance sheet capacity and ongoing growth in operating cash flow provides further funding capacity For personal use only
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Macquarie Australia Conference | May 2025 14 Investment thesis: Attractive distributions and significant near and long -term growth opportunities 01. Portfolio of gas, electricity and renewable assets with long- term contracted capacity $27bn+ FFO / Net Debt ratio. Strong Balance Sheet positioned to support growth 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. 08. 2050+ Long-life assets, natural gas required beyond 2050 to support the energy transition1 90% Highly defensive and predictable inflation-linked revenues 75% ~$1.8bn Organic growth pipeline for FY25-27 funded by operating cash flow and existing balance sheet2 $100bn+ Addressable market for long- term growth opportunities3 Enables focus on markets that deliver strong returns 10.7% FFO / Net debt4 Strong balance sheet well positioned to support growth 6.9% Attractive distribution yield Focused on delivering sustainable ongoing distribution growth5 Strong EBITDA margins and cost reduction initiatives. Targeting ongoing Underlying EBITDA growth ahead of inflation 1. Includes Australian Energy Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2024, ACCC Gas Inqu iry Report Q1 2025 and Australian Government, Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Future Gas Strategy, May 2024. 2. Estimated organic growth capital expenditure pipeline reflects management’s current expectations based on project design and is subject to change up to final investment decision and agreement on definitive documents. Actual expenditure in each year will depend on project commitments and timing, and may differ from estimates. Refer to slide 13 for the forecast sources and uses of cash FY25-FY27. 3. Estimated addressable market sizes in Australia. Estimates are based on a number of key assumptions, including in relation to macroeconomic factors, future technology advancements and costs, market demand, reg ulatory requirements and government policies and there can be no assurance that the estimates are accurate. The actual addressable market size may differ materially from the estimates because events frequently do not occur as projected. 4. Funds From Operations (FFO)/Net Debt and FFO/Interest calculated in line with S&P methodology. Historical ratios have been re vised reflecting S&P revisions to historical calculations 5. Yield calculated as at market close, 5 May 2025. Statements about ongoing distribution growth are not intended as distribution guidance. Any distribution guidance f or periods beyond FY25 will be approved by the APA Board as and when appropriate. For personal use only
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For further information: Andrew Nairn General Manager, Investor Relations M. +61 437 166 497 E. Andrew.nairn@apa.com.au www.apa.com.au For personal use only