Hello, and welcome to the AVJennings half year FY 2024 results webinar. I'm Andrew Keys, and I'm facilitating today's webinar. In a moment, CEO and Managing Director, Phil Kearns, and CFO, Shanna Souter, will present the results. At the conclusion of their presentations, there will be a Q&A session. Participants are requested to type your questions into the Q&A portal, and I will happily read them out. Over to you, Phil. Good morning! Good morning, Andrew. Thank you. Hello, everyone. Welcome to our half year presentation for FY 2024. Joining me today, as Andrew said, is our CFO, Shanna Souter, and we look forward to answering your questions at the end of the presentation. Now, turning to the presentation. On behalf of AVJennings, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the lands on which we work and where we build our communities, and acknowledge the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and Maori people participating in today's event. We pay our respects to elders past, present, and emerging, and recognize and celebrate the diversity of these peoples and their ongoing cultures and connections to the lands and waters across Australia and New Zealand. While the industry and business have persevered through challenging macroeconomic conditions, our financials for the first half were also challenged, albeit where we expected, given our strong second half skew for revenue and earnings this year. Revenue and profit were well below the first half of last financial year. Some of the weakness this half is attributable to the impact of rising interest rates and the impact it had on contract signings through 2022 and early 2023. In those periods, buyers were incredibly reluctant to commit to a new home when getting a loan and financing a loan were difficult. Positively, our lead indicators for future financial performance have improved. We're reporting a 75% increase in contract signings to 294 for the six months to December 31, 2023. Inquiry rates have gone up by 26%, with buyers becoming more confident about the potential cost of purchase as interest rates stabilize. Pre-sales carried, pre-sales value carried forward was also up 34% to AUD 159 million. Most of these contracts will be settled this calendar year. As I mentioned, the financial results were below half one from last year. Revenue declined by 14% to AUD 120.4 million, primarily due to a 35% decrease in settlement volumes, but there was a higher contribution of value from built form products, accounting for 58% of revenue. Although remaining strong, gross margin percentage is at 26%, down from 35% the prior period. Margins were impacted by both cost pressures on some projects and the Brunswick project in partnership with the Victorian Government. We had profit before tax of AUD 4.2 million, down 81% on the prior corresponding period. In line with the company's prudent capital management approach, mindful of current earnings and the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the board decided not to pay a dividend during the period. NTA fell by 21% following the completion of the equity raise in November, which resulted in an increase in our total share count. ROE for the first half was 1.3%, well below the PCP, as you can see. Noting again, these half year numbers are also impacted by the strong second half skew we expect to see in our revenue and earnings for this year. Onto the strategy. Our vision extends beyond the horizon, and we're committed to developing communities for a sustainable future and ensuring we take the necessary steps today to set ourselves up for that future. Our strategy hasn't changed. We remain centered on flexibility in our product offering, modernizing our foundations, and building annuity income. Over time, successful execution on these objectives will deliver improved return on equity alongside an ongoing disciplined approach to capital management. We're continuously striving for improvements across the business, and our modernization program is focused on three core areas. Firstly, systems. We are progressing with upgrading our financial and operating systems to make them more fit for purpose and useful for our people. The first phase of this project is well progressed and primarily focuses on our financial system. Over time, the modernization will deliver greater business and efficiencies and improved real-time data visibility, contributing to improved governance, decision-making, and opportunities to scale without a corresponding increase in cost base. The second is capital. We completed an AUD 30 million equity raise in November, and we're currently engaging in discussions with bankers on debt arrangements, aiming for a more appropriate and modern capital structure to fund the business going forward. We're working collaboratively with our banks in this area. Last, but certainly not least, our most valuable asset is our people. We have a range of initiatives focused on people, and we are committed to fostering a culture of growth, challenge, accountability, and excellence to make the company a place that attracts and retains high-performing talent. To support a flexible product offering, we maintain a strategic diversification of our capital investment. We have capital deployed across five locations, with Victoria having the largest net funds employed percentage, with a 38% of total NFE. Similarly, our capital is well spread across land, housing, and apartments, with 52% allocated to land.... Our diverse offering allows us to easily move between land and housing as the market demands. The use of prefabricated walls in the construction process is a game-changing opportunity that sets us apart, providing us with a significant competitive advantage. This innovation has already begun to accelerate our delivery of built-form housing, and in turn, capital recycling. The new walling system provides AVJennings with a range of other benefits, including reduced on-site trade visits, improvements in the energy efficiency of homes in advance of the regulated national construction code changes, increased certainty on program delivery, and a quality home with less warranty issues. As a manufacturing facility comes online and production scales over coming periods, the Pro9 JV has the potential to redefine AVJennings earnings and growth profile in the future. We're excited to share that we're nearing the start of production of the new Australian manufacturing facility. Equipment is ready for assembly on site, and production is scheduled to commence mid-calendar year. The Pro9 walling system features in our Stella Collection homes. To date, we have built or have under construction 18 Stella homes, and currently have a further 36 in the pipeline to be built across AVJennings communities. We take pride in providing higher quality, more comfortable, energy-efficient homes for our customers. The AVJennings Stella Collection homes include the Pro9 walling system, double-glazed windows, and quality fixtures and fittings, as well as offering a minimum eight-star NatHERS energy rating. This rating is well above the current minimum standard of seven stars. As a result, our Stella Collection homes can halve energy costs for homeowners. As I mentioned, a pipeline of homes is planned throughout FY 2024 across AVJennings communities in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. At present, our total lots under control stand at 13,905, down from 14,069 lots as at June 30, 2023. The small decline was due to the absence of any new acquisitions, as we maintain a prudent approach to capital management. Within our land bank, there are 6,608 lots that already have development approval ready to drive growth in the business. A subset of that cohort is the 1,299 lots already under construction. I'll now hand over to Shanna, who will share some of the more detail with you on the financial results. Thank you, Phil, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Before I provide more detail on the first half 2024 results, I wanted to acknowledge the restatement you will see in the accounts related to the June 30, 2023 period. The misstatement relates to an error that resulted in the underreporting of our profit at June 30 by AUD 3.9 million, and was identified during the half-year reporting period. The misstatement arose from an oversight on the reporting of profit attributed to our New Zealand operations during that period. The root cause was a breakdown in internal control processes to both prevent and detect the error, and immediate actions have been taken to address the gaps. I understand this is disappointing and frustrating for our investors and other stakeholders, and wanted to offer my sincere apologies. Now, on to the first half results. While revenue was down 14% against the prior comparable period, there was a significant shift in the diversification of our revenue from that period. As you can see on the screen, the proportion of revenue generated by housing is materially up on the same period last year, from 27%-41%. This is in line with our strategy to improve revenue diversification over time. You will also note a significant amount of revenue generated by apartments compared to the prior period, but without any corresponding lot settlements on the right-hand side. This revenue relates to the structure of our Brunswick project that we are delivering in partnership with the Victorian Government. On this project, revenue is recognized over time as performance obligations on behalf of the Victorian Government are satisfied. The reduction in settlement lots overall that you can see compared to the prior period, reflects a significant drop in land lots, as the first half of 2023 was still benefiting from the tail of post-COVID government stimulus that significantly benefited land sales. Housing settlements remained relatively flat period-on-period. As Phil touched on the relationship to the fourteen thousand lots in the pipeline, following settlements during the period and no new acquisitions, our total pipeline of lots decreased to just below 14,000. However, our pipeline diversity, with the current skew towards Queensland and Victoria, provides exposure to all of Australia's key East Coast markets and New Zealand. Our focus on progressing planning across the pipeline ensures longevity of the delivery pipeline, with a good distribution of lots across the varying stages of planning, as shown on the right-hand side of the slide. And while we will always monitor the market for opportunistic acquisition opportunities, we remain focused on delivering from our existing pipeline, and currently are exploring opportunities to accelerate delivery of that pipeline. We currently have close to 1,300 lots under construction, with over 50% of those lots relating to current and future built-form construction. While we have seen a slight increase in completed lots available for sale against the prior period, it remains relatively low at 112 lots, which is spread across numerous projects... We continue to monitor these stock levels when making decisions about the future deployment of capital. Looking to the balance sheet, the changes in the balance sheet against the prior period reflect the increases in production, primarily across both apartments and early-stage land projects, which has resulted in an increase in both current and non-current inventories. As we see settlements coming through in late FY 2024, in line with the second half skew Phil has touched on, and further into FY 2025, including the settlement of Waterline Place in Victoria, the related inventory balances will fall. These are the same drivers for the movement in borrowing that you can see to fund the increases in production. Current liabilities have reduced against the prior period, as previously committed acquisition obligations have been paid during the period. This period is primarily related to the FY 2023 acquisitions of Clyde North, as well as a previous acquisition at Beaudesert in Queensland. Looking to the statement of cash flow. While cash receipts from customers are generally in line with the prior period, investments in higher levels of production, as well as the payment of the committed land acquisition obligations I just touched on, resulted in a AUD 69 million increase in operating cash outflows. Funding for the increased production and acquisition obligations also resulted in a material increase in debt drawn. Cash flow from financing activities are offset by the equity raised during the period, which contributed AUD 30 million of cash inflow to the business. Given the sustained challenging market conditions that are continuing to be ongoing, we retain discipline and prudent approach to capital management. This includes, as Phil touched on, a decision by the board to not declare a dividend during the period off the back of the softer financial results, completion of the equity raise during the period to fund built form production, and no new acquisitions during the period. We remain prudent with the deployment of capital into production to align it with market demand, as different corridors are performing differently at this point in time, and saw a 19% reduction in lots under development compared to the prior year. And while our gearing level has increased to 25.7%, it remains comfortably within our target range of 15%-35%. Our weighted average cost of debt increased in line with further interest rate rises during the period, and as previously touched on by Phil, our strategy to modernize our capital structure is progressing well with our current lender group. Thank you, and I will now hand back to Phil. Thanks, Shanna. We continue to see strong interest for our turnkey homes, including those from our Stella Collection. This trend reflects customer preference for a completed house and land package, where they value peace of mind, quality, and delivery certainty from a developer they can trust. One deposit, no progress payments, and then get the keys and move in on completion. As the macroeconomic environment stabilizes, leading economic and market indicators are on balance improving, certainly in a relative sense compared with a year ago. This relative improvement provides support for the housing market in the near to medium term. As the slide highlights, population growth is a tailwind for the industry, and migrant arrivals have increased, albeit driven by student arrivals rather than skilled labor. While immigration levels are forecast to normalize, they support continued demand for new housing, more so given the supply shortfall. The labor market remains tight, with low but rising unemployment. Rental vacancy rates are extremely low, and there are ambitious targets for new housing volumes provided by governments. Meanwhile, the outlook for interest rates tends towards stability, providing greater certainty for purchasers. This stability is critical for a rebound in the industry, and that slide there, I think, shows that quite clearly, where you can see through, particularly from about February 2023, the decline in demand and the contract signings from customers. As rates held tight around the June, July, August period, demand increased dramatically, and then you can see the results of the November interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank, where demand fell dramatically. And we hope that rates stabilize and we continue... Well, we see an increase in growth of contract signings from now on. On to slide 23. As I highlighted at the start of the presentation, the internal lead indicators of future financial performance for our business have improved. Compared to the same period last year, contract signings have increased by 75%, while our pre-sales value are up 34%. Additionally, inquiries have increased by 26%, with conversion rates from inquiry to sales up 38%. These indicators lay foundations for future growth and give us confidence that the business is heading in the right direction. Compared to FY 2023, we anticipate the decline in profit before tax for FY 2024, off the back of a sustained challenging macroeconomic overlay. We also expect a notable skew in settlements and earnings towards the fourth quarter. Contributing to this skew will be settlements from our merchant apartments at Waterline in Victoria, which commenced settlement in late FY 2024. Prudent capital management will continue to guide us, with no new acquisitions planned for the second half of 2024. The dividend position will be revisited during the financial year as we evaluate business conditions and our financial results. The company aims to provide a Q3 trading update in April 2024, and remains committed to executing our strategic goals. Thank you again for joining us today, and we're now happy to take your questions on the result. Thank you, Phil. Some questions that came through prior to the webinar, start there first. I have a few in relation to Pro9, relationship and joint ventures. Firstly, how much has AVJennings paid for its, share in the joint venture? We paid just over AUD 10 million, Andrew. Again, related to that, is there any ongoing capital commitment in relation to the JV? No, there's no more capital commitments on that one moving forward. Then the third part of the Pro9 is relation. What's the transfer pricing arrangement? Yeah, there's no, there's no transfer pricing arrangement as such. However, we do get preferential treatment in regards to supply. All right. Thank you. Another question that came through beforehand relating to payables, so I'll direct this at Shanna. Noting the payables balance is still at AUD 81 million relative to, an observation of balance sheet capacity, how, how will that balance be cleared? And, you know, do you think you'll need to, include asset sales as, to, to manage that debt situation? Yep. Thanks, Andrew. The payable balance of AUD 81 that sits on, a large portion of that relates to land creditors. So again, consistent with what we saw during the first half, the payment of acquisition obligations that remain. We're very cognizant of those obligations over the next six-12 months, and are confident that we have levers within the business in relation to, settlements over the six-12-month period, as well as the available debt facility to manage those obligations. Thank you. Some other questions that have come through, from Tony Stocks. What do you mean by modernizing the capital structure? Does this include further changes in equity? Yeah. Do that? I can take it. Thanks for the question, Tony. So, and good question. So as we touched on at full year in relation to the modernization, it was a combination of equity and looking at our existing debt facility, which Phil touched on. We've obviously dealt with the equity side of it and what we felt was the immediate, near-term plans for equity. There's no future intent from an equity raise. We'll continue to look at our equity, position in relation to the broader market as we go forward. We are now focused on, as Phil touched on, the modernization of our capital side of it, the debt side, as it relates to the funding and are well progressed in conversations with our banks. That will look at what the current structure of the facility is, how it is utilized within the business and different projects. That is well progressed, but ongoing, and we'll provide an update to the market on that in due course. Thank you, Shanna. Next question from Patrick Cody: Relating to the restatements, when did the AUD 3 million underreporting in NPAT, when was it first recognized? And is today the first time that this has been notified through the ASX? Yep. Thanks for the question, Patrick. So as I touched on in my speech, it was picked up during the half year results. In line with our obligations on the reporting, we've worked through that with the auditors, and so this is the first time that it has been reported, because those numbers were just finalized, through the half year period and what the flow-on impact of it was to both June 30 period, but also then the first half period. There was no prior obligation, because it had not been worked through and identified, earlier, to facilitate an earlier notification, or we would have. Thank you. Question in relation to operating cash flows, which were noted as AUD 110 million outflow last half. Where will AVJennings source the funds for operating cash flows in the coming half? Yeah. So thank you for the question, and similar to the question before about the payables, we've got reasonably good visibility at this point and what we think the market will do over the next six-12 months to be able to fund the operations of the business over that period. Along with the review that we're currently undertaking of how we utilize debt within the business to fund production. We'll make sure that, you know, we're with that visibility that we're running the business within the bounds of what we have the capacity to do. Thank you, Shanna. A couple of questions here in the sort of category of dividends. Based on lead indicators, do you anticipate a dividend next half? And, do you have any plans for the large franking credit balance? On the dividend piece, I mean, that's obviously a board decision. It's something that we would love to do at every result, is announce a dividend. Over the period, over the last 12 months in particular, has been particularly strong, and you've seen the results of other developers. And we'll continue to keep doing what's the right thing for the business and what's prudent for the business. The prudent capital management piece isn't just something we put in a slide, it's something we think deeply about. So, we'd love to pay a dividend, but it's gonna depend on managing where the business is and what the macroeconomic view is. If there's another interest rate rise, let's say in April, for example, then that won't be a good thing for us or the industry. It does massive things, as I showed on that slide before, to demand from our customers. So, it's pretty reliant on what's happening externally as well as internally. Thank you. A financial reporting question, it has been observed that there's a focus on profit before tax. Why does the company focus more on that in its communications than net profit after tax? Yeah, look, I wouldn't say that we're more focused on it, or less focused on either. It's just what we've chosen to report on, but I'm happy to take that on notice and consider whether or not we need to be reporting more on NPAT and profit before tax going forward. Thank you, Shanna. Thank you, Phil. There are no more questions, so, we thank all the participants for dialing in and watching today, and we will conclude the webinar there. Thank you. Thanks, Andrew. Goodbye.
Loading workspace