Before and during this presentation, as I'm sure many of you know, to ask questions, just go to the bottom of your screen, the Q&A section, and just add them, and we'll get to those at the end of the formal presentation. But without any further ado, let me pass over to Hugh Toll, the CEO of Lynch Group. Over to you, Hugh. Thanks, Adrian. Look, good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for your time and interest. A s Adrian mentioned, I'm Hugh Toll. I'm the Chief Executive of Lynch Group. I'm joined by Steve Wood, who is our CFO, who'll cover off the financials as part of the presentation. I will turn to slide five, which is the key drivers page just on overall group performance. Our first half results exceeded guidance provided by the market in November at both revenue and EBITDA. Results reflect continued recovery in margins in our Australian operations and a decline in China's performance due to ongoing weakness in consumer confidence and demand, impacting realized pricing across our sales channels. First half group revenue grew 3% year-over-year, 6% up when excluding the additional week of trading included in the first half FY 2023 results. Australian revenue growth was supported by consistent customer demand via the supermarket channel, which was partially offset by declines in our wholesale channel serving florists. China revenue declined off the back of weaker domestic and export pricing on higher production volumes, w ith low levels of consumer confidence and higher volumes on market, pricing remained below expectation across the half. Group EBITDA at AUD 16.7 million was up 28% on the first half last year. This reflects significantly improved contribution from our Australian operations as a result of stable demand and good progress on ongoing margin recovery initiatives. China's results were primarily impacted by weak market demand and pricing. The group's first half results recorded a non-cash impairment charge against China's carrying value of goodwill of AUD 30.1 million. The impairment charge reflects a review of recent volatility in the group's earnings in China and current weakness in market demand and pricing, resulting in the application of higher discount rates to unchanged underlying assumptions for China's medium to long-term growth and returns. The impairment charge represents a write-down against the FY 2023 year-end goodwill balance of AUD 58.7 million. The group's confidence in positive medium to long-term outlook for the China floral industry remains unchanged. Turning now to the Australian highlights on slide six. Australia's first half revenue finished 4% up year-over-year, excluding the additional week of trading in the first half of FY 2023. Despite a general slowdown in consumer spending and confidence across the half, demand for supermarket floral products remained resilient. High volume first half events across spring and Christmas were well executed with our customers, resulting in strong sell-through rates in stores. Demand from florists remained generally weak across the half, impacting sales through our wholesale markets channel. Trading conditions for many florists remained challenging. Australian margin recovery initiatives progressed to plan across the half. Steady improvement to overall buying rates via reductions in freight and greater labor availability led to improved EBITDA performance. Pleasingly, we were able to operate across the first half in the absence of any major supply chain disruptions or challenges in securing labor. The Australian port disputes created cost and delays to our sea freight program towards the end of the first half, although impacts were manageable in scale. Moving to China on slide eight. First half China segment revenue finished 8% down year-on-year. The decline resulted from a combination of strong farm production volume growth, which tracked at around 15% up, a 4% decline in domestic pricing, which was cycling the weak first half pricing performance of FY 2023, an 18% decline in export pricing reflecting the path through of reduced China export freight rates, and lower export of volumes of third-party procured product to Australia. As noted in our previous full-year results presentation, following a very strong rebound in demand after cessation of China's COVID Zero policy in early 2023, our operations experienced a marked downturn in customer demand and pricing from late May. This continued across the first half of FY 2024, reflecting a general weakness in consumer confidence in spending as well as an uplift in volumes on market. Operational execution across growing, processing, sales, and distribution continued to be managed efficiently and effectively, delivering a significant volume lift over the first half with costs well controlled. We continue to take a measured approach to greenhouse expansion given current market conditions, with the first half addition of one hectare to support our expanding tulip production program. Preparations were made during the first half to open a second east coast production facility, and the new Guangzhou site was operational from late January. The site provides additional sales reach across our wholesale, retail, and web shop channels in an affluent and high-density population catchment, similar to our current operations in Shanghai. I'll now hand over to Steve, who will take us through the half-year financials. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for your time this afternoon. Our first half FY 2024 results reflect margin recovery in Australia and the effects of weaker pricing in China. The results exceeded the earnings guidance range provided at our AGM on the 24th of November, with both revenue and EBITDA ahead of that guidance. Group revenue of AUD 187 million was up 6% on a like-for-like 26-week basis compared to the prior year, with growth in Australia driven by consumer-demanded supermarkets and declines in China from the combined impacts of reductions in both domestic and export price. EBITDA for the half is up 28%, with Australia ahead of the first half in FY 2023 and China behind. Margins in Australia have trended up to 8.7% as margin continues to recover. Margins in China have declined as a result of pricing during the period. Group EBITDA achieved for the first half of AUD 16.7 million is above the guidance range of AUD 15 million-AUD 16 million from the 24th of November. Cash conversion of 66% for the half is a pleasing result against the same period last year, with working capital outflow down year-on-year as inventory management improved. As in prior years, cash conversion is expected to increase for the full year from the seasonality impacts of a lower cash-generating first half and a higher cash-generating second half. The group has today declared an interim fully franked dividend of AUD 0.04 per share, with a record date of 6th of March and expected payment date of the 20th of March. Moving to the Australian segment, which has delivered revenue and EBITDA growth during the half. Revenue is AUD 158 million, which is a 3.9% increase on the prior period on a like-for-like basis, driven by consistent demand for floral product in the supermarket channel. Performance in sale-or-return stores remained strong, with growth in the number of sale-or-return stores during the half. The number of sale-or-return stores as a proportion of the store network remains at approximately 25%. Revenue from florists served by the group's market sites and Flower HQ brand has declined against the same period last year. However, demand from florists has been largely stable during the half, but this is at levels materially down on the first half in 2023. The Australian revenue of AUD 13.7 million has been delivered on the back of executed margin recovery initiatives, which translated to cost improvements during the half. International freight rates from Middle Eastern and South American routes have stabilized at levels similar to those experienced in 2021, although these rates remain higher than those experienced pre-pandemic. Labor availability has not impacted operational efficiency during the half. However, the labor rate inflation is higher than historical norms, reflecting wider economic trends. The EBITDA margin for the half is 8.7%, which is ahead of both the second half FY 2023 and the same period last year. Moving to China now. China revenue is AUD 36 million, down 8% year-on-year. The key driver of the revenue decline is a reduction in export pricing as freight rates reduced post the China reopening, with these savings passed on in the transfer price to Australia. China freight rates remain elevated relative to FY 2021 levels and have not declined to the level experienced on Middle Eastern or South American routes. Domestic rose pricing is down 4% on the same period last year and now down 33% on the same period in FY 2022. Higher rose volumes have been achieved from prior year greenhouse development, delivering high revenue overall from China domestic customers relative to the first half of 2023. The China EBITDA of AUD 3 million is reflective of the subdued domestic pricing experience during the half. Operationally, production volumes and costs remain on track, with the major production costs of heating, fertilizers, packaging, and freight well controlled. Slide 12 shows the profit and loss statement. The full-year P&L shows an improvement in operating margin of 270 basis points over the same period last year, which is reflective of flat direct costs on higher revenue. Operating costs are up 7%, driven by the higher inflationary environment experienced in Australia during the period. The largest impact is in employee costs, where year-on-year increases are from a combination of rate increases and resourcing of some key roles within the business. Depreciation and amortization is also up 7% due to depreciation from China growth asset investment and right-of-use asset depreciation from property leases. Financing costs reflect higher interest charges on Australian debt relative to the prior period and additional lease liability interest from the property leases. All that leads to a net profit after tax adjusting for non-cash amortization of AUD 2.2 million, up from AUD 1.4 million in the prior corresponding period. Cash conversion is 66% for the half, with changes from working capital a deficit of AUD 5.6 million for the first half compared to a deficit of AUD 8.2 million in the first half of the prior year. This improvement is largely as a result of careful inventory management during the period. As in previous years, there is a seasonality element to the group's cash flows, which will see a substantial unwind of the working capital deficit in the second half. The year-on-year increase in cash outflow from leases, interest tax, and maintenance CapEx is driven from additional interest and tax payments in Australia. Growth CapEx of AUD 5.5 million is broadly in line with the prior year, which leads to free cash flow for the year of a deficit of AUD 5.2 million, with net cash flow after dividends paid in September a deficit of AUD 13.5 million. Moving on to the capital expenditure and land in China. CapEx spend of AUD 7.7 million is in line with the same period last year and slightly below the previous half. The reduced CapEx compared to FY 2023 and FY 2022 reflects the more cautious approach to greenhouse expansion in China during the current economic conditions. Growth CapEx of AUD 5.5 million includes investment in production capacity expansion in Australia and greenhouse expansion and other farm infrastructure in China. Greenhouse expansion includes progress payments on expansion from prior periods, and other farm infrastructure includes investment to support additional tulip volumes. The maintenance CapEx of AUD 2.2 million is broadly consistent with previous periods. The closing developed land area of 83 hectares in China includes an additional hectare developed in the first half of the year. Full-year CapEx is currently forecast at between AUD 12 million and AUD 14 million, which includes a further hectare in the second half and finalization payments for existing development as well as moderate ongoing farm infrastructure and everyday stay-in-business or maintenance CapEx in both countries. The group's statement of financial position includes a non-cash impairment of goodwill in the China group. In total, an impairment charge of AUD 30.1 million has been recognized for the half, which reduces the carrying value of goodwill in China from AUD 59 million to AUD 28 million. This impairment has been recognized following an increase in the discount rate applied to the China group cash flows. Our underlying discounted cash flow model remains unchanged from previous periods in terms of medium to long-term outlook. However, due to the current volatility and decline in pricing as well as the current economic conditions in China, we have deemed it appropriate to add a company-specific risk factor to our long-term view on weighted average cost of capital. These assumptions, verified by our auditors and their independent experts, have resulted in an impairment of the China cash-generating unit. Importantly, our view on the medium to long-term outlook for the China business remains unchanged. Aside from the movement in intangible assets, increases in trade and other receivables, and trade and other payables reflect the seasonality of the business relative to the June period. Borrowings are unchanged at AUD 55 million, with AUD 22 million underwritten facilities remaining available to the group. Banking covenants for the period were achieved with satisfactory headroom. We have provided revenue, EBITDA, and key operating metrics split between geographies as well as reported the statutory reconciliations in the supplementary pages at the back of the investor presentation pack. I'll hand back to Hugh. Thanks, David. Now turning to slide 17, which goes to current regional trade settings. In Australia, current supermarket customer demand remained stable, with the first seven weeks of the second half flat on the same period in FY 2023, cycling a strong January result last year. Wholesale demand from florists has also stabilized at a lower base against the same period last year. The Valentine's Day event was well executed at an operational level, with the event delivering strong year-on-year revenue growth and sell-out results for our major customers. The event result is a strong indicator of ongoing supermarket demand for floral products despite a softer environment for consumer spending. Freight rates for our import program remain above pre-COVID levels, but we continue to see periodic reduction in air rates on some routes as capacity rebounds over time. The current Middle East situation does increase risk to capacity availability and rates for both air and sea over the coming period. Port labor disputes in Australia have created disruptions and additional cost over recent months, requiring a switchback to high-cost air freight on some routes. These changes are expected to be short-term in nature. In China, market demand for floral lines remains subdued, with the economy experiencing low consumer confidence in spending, particularly impacting discretionary products. Market volumes also remain elevated on last year levels. Average pricing performance for our farm, rose, and tulip volumes over the first seven weeks of the second half as tracked circa 30% below last year's levels, cycling the strong post-COVID lockdown rebound in market demand last year. Operational efficiency and cost control remains a key focus, a primary objective being to maintain leading unit cost efficiency across production, packing, and logistics. Costs continue to be well controlled as our operations and customer channels handle continued growth in volumes. Operations commenced at our second in-market production facility in Guangzhou in late January. The facility is similar to our current operations in Shanghai, allowing further development of our customer demand base across wholesale, retail, and web shop channels to market. We continue to carefully manage China's greenhouse expansion and capital deployment program given current market conditions. We expect to finish FY 2024 with 84 hectares in production, having added the further 5 hectares from January last year. Before financial year-end, we also expect to be able to provide an update on negotiations for the addition of a fifth farm to enable capacity for long-term expansion beyond FY 2024. Moving finally to slide 18 for the group's overall outlook. Second half Australian revenue growth is expected to follow the first half trend rate of around 4%, underpinned by stable demand across our customer store networks. Second half China revenue is expected to remain adversely impacted by weak consumer sentiment over the short term, with pricing forecasts to remain below last year levels. FY 2024 full-year group EBITDA is expected to finish in the range of AUD 40 million-AUD 43 million, with continued margin recovery across the major high-volume events in Australia and price declines negatively impacting China's margin performance. We'll provide a further trading update after this year's Mother's Day event in May. So that wraps up the results presentation materials. Thanks for your time and interest. I think I'll hand back to Adrian, who can coordinate questions that you submitted online. Thanks, Hugh. So just a reminder to those on the call, to ask a question, just put it into the Q&A section at the bottom of your screen. So, Hugh and Steve, we've got a bunch of questions which kind of go around the grounds, and everybody gets a chance to contribute here. So, let me start with the first one. It starts in Australia. "Can you talk to the channel performance in Australia? Florists sound like a lot of downgrading. Supermarkets is a cost of living hit good or bad for you and potted, the CBA data talking to soft or garden sales through the second quarter of FY 2024." So florists, supermarket, and potted. Sure. Look, tough times for florists, generally speaking. I think given price points that they are typically targeting, people being more cautious about spending, et cetera, there's certainly been a reset down in terms of the revenue they've been able to generate. There's no public data to point to, but anecdotally, that could be anywhere between 25%-30% down and reset. We see that through our wholesale operations, selling through the markets, and direct to florists. But I think it also depends on where you are and who you are in terms of how that's played out, but there's certainly been a downward reset there. And I think it's all about price point. In terms of supermarkets, I think as we've seen in other foreign markets, I think convenience setting for buying flowers has proven to be the right place to be. Certainly, prominence of floral stands in supermarkets over the last 20 or 30 years has meant that people are happy to buy good quality at an attractive price point when they're doing their shopping. So we've seen through various cycles over the last sort of decades-plus that things may slow down, but they're not going to go backwards in a supermarket setting for flowers. The rate of growth will decline, but it's very rare to go backwards in these types of environments. So, I think the supermarkets are in good shape in terms of being a setting for moving floral. Look, potted has been a volatile game. I think during COVID in particular, lots and lots of people being at home were buying potted lines to decorate and cheer themselves up at home. So potted business for nurseries, for Bunnings, for the supermarkets boomed across 2021 in particular. You can see that from the metrics in the back end of our slide presentation that you've seen a retraction in that market over the last couple of years. So, that's stabilized, but I think the potted business certainly had a boom, and it's quieted down over the last couple of years. That's great. Okay. Thanks, Hugh. Next question and more recently, so, "How was Valentine's Day? And are you seeing any green shoots in China? So, jumping around here a bit and suggesting that some of the FMCG data has improved recently." Look, Valentine's is good in terms of the things that are within our control, in terms of how logistics played out for product delivery into our business, how we functioned operationally. The product quality this year was outstanding. So very, very happy with how we controlled what was under our own watch. In terms of customers, each customer goes with sort of different growth rates to target consumer demand within their own networks. Growth was really solid. I think both our ability to control what we can control, what went on in store, the growth rates that were targeted, and the ultimate sell-through rates were excellent. In many respects, one of the best events we've managed. So really pleased with how it played out. There was a second part to that question. Yeah, just in terms of green shoots and some of the FMCG data. Look, we certainly saw pricing improve into winter and Christmas, which you'd expect seasonally, and then stabilize across January when we would have expected a further increase. So, I think it's okay, but not great. We're not saying anything at the moment that's saying that there's any sort of near-term recovery in sort of consumer sentiment otherwise. I think sort of the service-based economy is still in reasonable shape. I think sort of household goods, etc., is still pretty hard going. So look, from our point of view, it remains tough up there. We haven't seen anything over recent weeks that suggests it's turning around anytime soon. Thanks, Hugh. "Just back to Australia. The Australian result looks impressive. Looks like you're tracking back to the margin level seen previously. Is this a fair observation, or are there other reasons why this is not the case?" Yeah, look, it's been a lot of hard work. I mean, you can see from the results we delivered across calendar year 2022, we were facing a lot of pressure in terms of obviously inbound freight costs, disruptions to supply chains creating additional cost burdens in our business, trying to find people to work and the amount of overtime that we were running, plus also some issues with customers along the way too in terms of how they were buying our product. So very pleased that that sort of margin trajectory has turned the corner. From the beginning of last calendar year, a lot of hard work has gone into that. And I think the trajectory into second half is where it should be. So we're heading in the right direction, but we're coming back from a very tough calendar year 2022. Thanks, Hugh. Next question. "Read the channel mix. I think this was more Australia. What is the percentage revenue from florists for these supermarkets?" Look, we've never disclosed that. I think our principal business is obviously the supermarket business working with the major customers here. So the bulk of our Australian revenue obviously is working with supermarkets, but a sizable chunk is through our wholesale network, what we call our markets business, which is obviously leveraging our own procurement platform to trade product with other wholesalers and directly into florists. So we've never provided that split. Thanks, Hugh. "So just turning our direction to China. So just with respect to the impairment, why was the impairment so large, and what are the main drivers for this change?" Yeah. So the impairment, the way we modeled the impairment, as I've sort of mentioned briefly in my commentary, we do a discounted cash flow model. And those assumptions, we do that every year as part of the assessment of intangible assets. We do it every six months, and we do it in detail in June. This time, we did it in detail in December as well. And our underlying assumptions of that cash flow haven't changed, okay? But there is some short-term volatility, and the pricing has jumped up and down a little bit recently. So what we thought it was prudent to do in the work this year was to up the risk rating in that model a nd it's really sensitive. Upping it by just 1% here or there has quite a big impact. We did a range of scenarios, but all of those scenarios involved the cash flows long-term staying the same as they are. This is where we've landed. It is approximately half of the goodwill that has been written down in that business. The important message there, Adrian, is that our medium to long-term view of that market is unchanged, and that's what the modeling says as well. Thanks, Steve. So another question, "Just sticking with China view. So what new customer channels are being developed from the Guangzhou facility?" Look, the web shop is a small but really important part of our business. So we're effectively selling product direct to florists and small community buyers across the country. Having a facility in market there means that not only are we combining our own product with third-party product we buy, we're able to deliver that into some of these customers' homes within a 24-hour window. So it's a growing part of our business. So that's new customers that are retail, let's call it, florists or community buyers in that market. Second thing is that our retail customer network also pushes into that part of Southeast China. So doing more work delivering direct into DC from our facility in Guangzhou, working with our existing retail customers with their store network in that region, and then wholesale. So it means that clearly, we work with larger regional wholesalers in that province, but being able to move into a second tier of smaller to mid-sized wholesalers means that there's a new set of customers that are prompted by having that facility in that market. So really, it just expands the universe of customers on sort of all three channels to market. Thanks, Hugh. Couple of questions here on China. I might combine these ones because they're relevant to the hectares that are actually there. So, "What's the outlook for new hectares in China? Could you do 5-10 a year, and have you secured new lands? And really, just with respect to that, what's the kind of more sustainable CapEx level in China given this half with AUD 6.2 versus AUD 5.2 last half? So on the land, but also the CapEx required coming forward." Yeah. Okay. So look, we cap out mid-90s. So we're getting closer to our land capacity for the four farms that we have. Two of our farms are complete. The other two, we're nearing completion on. So certainly, to be putting on 10 hectares a year, we do need that fifth farm. And that's something we've been working hard on for the last year or so. We're very close on that. But I think with COVID and then sort of delays across last year in being able to negotiate a suitable outcome that worked for us, we're at the front end of 2024 now. So we're not too far away. As I said in my speaking notes, we're certainly hopeful that we'll have that squared away by the time we report before the year 2024. In terms of appetite for growth, we can move very quickly in terms of hectare expansion if the market supports it. I think we're being more cautious at the moment because we have seen volatility in pricing from late 2022 right through till late 2023. Our view is that we can bring volume and capacity to market reasonably rapidly, and a lot of it will depend on sustainability and stability in pricing. We're very watchful about generating an appropriate ROI on our CapEx spend. We do it with a measured and sort of cautious approach depending on what's in front of us. I think no hesitation in saying that our capacity and willingness to sort of go harder on hectare expansion remains. But again, we keep a watchful eye over the market, and we do have a requirement to get that fifth farm banked before we can sort of really push ahead harder. Thanks, Hugh. Steve, a couple of questions for you on cash and balance sheet. So firstly, "On cash. So cash conversion was low on the half. Question is, is this seasonal? And if so, what will it be closer to by the end of the financial year?" Yeah, sure. Yeah. I mean, it is seasonal. And in the first half of the business is usually or always working capital negative. And yeah, that's a driver of the seasonality. M ost of that comes back in the second half. I mean, we were close to 100% last year. We've had a good run on inventory management. We've put a lot of work into reducing our inventory holdings. Obviously, the live product comes in and out of the business in no time, but I'm talking about more of the long-term things like ceramics, some of the wraps and so on. There's been big focus areas on that in the business to reduce our holdings. And that's trying to free up some working capital a nd some of that's come through. T he inventory level's quite a lot lower this December than they were the December 2023. So, a lot of work done there. It will substantially unwind in the second half. And so I'm expecting a much higher cash conversion rate at the end of the year. Thanks, Steve. While I've still got you, another question just on the balance sheet more broadly. "You've mentioned some of the working capital items, but just the question is more about your level of comfort with respect to the other financial drivers within the balance sheet?" Yeah, no problem. Yeah, so I've talked about the intangibles. That's obviously the biggest movement on the balance sheet for this half, and we've talked about that impairment right down, non-cash, obviously. Working capital is good and will improve as the year goes on. I'm happy with the inventory levels. And the borrowings is, I suppose, the other big part of the capital management. Borrowings is almost exactly the same number as last year. It's sitting at around AUD 55 million. And the borrowing covenants that we have locally here, we're satisfied with reasonable headroom. So yeah, I'm not concerned about anything sitting on the balance sheet, Adrian. Thanks, Hugh. Sorry, thanks, Steve. Hugh, back to you just on China. So let me combine a couple of questions here. So, "With respect to, do you expect Chinese prices to recover? What are the catalysts and are the peers making money? And just apropos the earlier conversation from Steve, why are you still so confident about the medium to longer-term outlook for China?" Sure. Look, my personal view on the market situation up there at the moment is that we're sort of facing multiple headwinds, which means that I don't think things can get much worse, which is a dangerous thing to say. But I think right now, we're seeing a significant volume step up on market, which comes from the smaller growers, but also some larger projects that have come to market in the last couple of years. So, a volume uplift in an atmosphere where consumers are being much more cautious on how they spend means that we're obviously seeing pretty tough pricing. We've seen that consistently for the last seven or eight months. In terms of where to from here, I think people will be a whole lot more cautious as we are about putting on space anytime soon. When it comes to the larger projects that have come to market in the last two to three years in China, they've really all been state-backed. I think sort of capital heading towards this space in China is going to be a whole lot more cautious about adding capacity. My sense is that as you see consumers being a little bit more free with their spending, you're going to see that sort of you're going to see an improvement in pricing. My sense is that things are pretty dark at the moment. We're close to dawn, and that we'll see pricing improve over the next 12 months or so. But it's not near-term. I've got confidence that the usual drivers of China, which is that transition to middle-class, people's affinity of loving, buying, giving, and receiving flowers like in any other market, will play out. Per capita spend up there still remains low. The prognosis or the prospects for the flower market up there are really sound. So very happy to continue to say that. Sorry, mate. Second question. No, no. I always forget. No, no, no. That's all, Hugh. I think we've exhausted the group. So, I think you've probably answered all those questions anyway. So, I'll just pass back to you to wrap up. Yeah. Okay. Well, look, thanks, everyone, for joining the call. Thanks for your time and attention and interest in our business. I'm hopeful that we'll see quite a few of you on the road over the next week or so. So look, thanks for your time, and look forward to catching as many of you as I can in person.
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