Thank you for standing by and welcome to the South32 Outlook Conference Call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Graham Kerr, CEO. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the time for our call today. I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Katie Tovich, and our Chief External Affairs Officer, Kelly O'Rourke. After some brief introductory remarks, we'll open the call for questions. You would've seen yesterday, we announced the divestment of South Africa Energy Coal to Seriti Resources is now unconditional. We expect to complete the transaction on June 1. Exiting thermal coal is a transformative milestone for South32. With fewer operating sites and reduced accounts, we are a significantly simpler company. Today, we've released our update on our business and strategy going forward, including a plan to halve our carbon emissions by 2035. We are optimizing our business with a strong focus on safety while reducing our controllable cost base and delivering an overall improvement in our operating performance and stability. We are also unlocking value at operations through projects, including bringing our alumina refineries to nameplate production, improving energy efficiency at our aluminum smelters, growing nickel production at Cerro Matoso through the Q&P and Osmot projects, and advancing studies to extend the life of GEMCO and bring forward higher-grade material at Cannington. At Illawarra, we are assessing the IPC's decision on Dendrobium Next Domain and will be defining our pathway forward by the end of the calendar year. We have added multiple growth options to our portfolio and have a pipeline of greenfield exploration projects and partnerships with a bias to base metals. In Arizona, the Hermosa team are nearing completion of the pre-feasibility study for the Taylor's zinc, lead, and silver deposit and are progressing a manganese battery scoping study for the Clark deposit. Ambler Metals' joint venture in Alaska, where we have a 50% shareholding, is progressing a pre-feasibility study for the high-grade Arctic, copper and gold deposits. We have set new medium targets to halve our operational emissions by 2035, and we're strengthening our commitment to reach net zero by 2050. We will deliver the 2035 target through decarbonizing our existing operations, securing green energy, designing our growth projects with carbon neutral and low carbon technology. Our business is in a strong position, and today we've announced a $200 million expansion of our capital management program, with $316 million remaining to be returned by 30 September. As we look to the future, we have a great foundation to build from with well-performing operations, a strong balance sheet, high-quality growth options in attractive metal jurisdictions, and a plan to decarbonize our business. We have a video and a presentation available on our website which talks to these plans in more detail. We will now open the call to questions. Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, press press star one of your telephone and might see your name into the accounts. If you cancel your request, please press star two. If you are in speak please toggle your handset to answer a question. Your first question comes from Kaan Peker with RBC. Go ahead. Morning, Graham, and thanks for taking the question. Just on the capital allocation. I understand that given South32's focus on maintaining an investment-grade credit rating, but just on the roundabout calculation, if you just have $500 million-$600 million of capital is freed up on the balance sheet post completion of the sale. With $200 million allocated to the buyback, how should we view the remaining $300 million-$400 million odd? I'll circle back with another question, if that's okay. Yeah, no, look, appreciate the question. I'll get Katie to take through the detail of the calculations because I think that's important to understand. I would start with the overarching comment that nothing's changed in our belief that having a strong balance sheet is critically important to us as a business. Our capital management framework remains unchanged, and we've always sought to return cash back to our shareholders when it's excess and it's actually in the bank, not prospective. Maybe, Katie, you can talk to the calculation. Yeah. Thanks, Graham, and thanks for the question. Probably, we do have a slide in the pack that's a good reference slide 25, when you have a chance to have a look at it. If I step you through our net cash count at the moment. At the end of April, we closed with a net cash number at AUD 464 million. Post the sale completion, we would expect that net cash number to reduce by about $250 million, and that's off the back of broadly pre-paying the present value of the package that we're putting forward in terms of funding for Seriti. Also on the assumption that the $ 50 million restructuring facility will be drawn by Seriti at or around completion date, or at least in the several months thereafter. You'd expect to see about $ 250 million come out at that point. If you think about our capital management announcement this morning, that additional $200 million effectively we assume is committed. That brings us to $360 million of committed capital management activity from here on in. That brings you, broadly speaking, to around about $100 million net debt number. In terms of our forward portfolio outlook, our forward capital profile, that's about the position we want to be in right now. The way I think about it, again, nothing's changed. As commodity prices continue to remain strong, we'll continue to accumulate excess cash. Like we've always done, we'll look at the most effective way to get that back to our shareholders. Sure. That $200 million expansion of the buyback is just until late December? That's right. Yeah. We have the flexibility to move that date, and certainly as we look at the full year announcement, we'll consider what we've managed to return between now and the end of June before we get into the blackout period and reassess what the right form of return is for shareholders at that time in terms of any remaining balance. Sure. Just on the second one, just looking at slide 21, it shows South32's greenfield exploration footprint. There's a lot of targets there. It does look like it's the commodity where most of the spend is being allocated. Can you just talk through, are you considering that build versus buy decision in this space? Thanks. Yeah, look, absolutely. We've always talked about when it comes to thinking about future growth opportunities, we've always had that bias to base metals, and clearly everyone likes copper. We've invested a lot, if you like, in exploration and early stage development projects. If you look at those exploration projects, you are correct, on slide 21, there's a strong focus on copper. While we talk about Hermosa, we focus on Taylor and Clark at the moment. If you start to call out, there are other property, if you like, prospective targets on the property of Hermosa, which obviously we're targeting copper. Also the big one for us obviously is Ambler Metals with a 50% ownership we have in the joint venture with Trilogy, where you've got the Arctic deposit, which we think in itself is a great deposit and certainly provides a basis to continue to search for more copper in that space. Look, I would say you'd expect to see us very active actually in the drill bit side of it, continuing to progress Ambler Metals. M&A has always been an opportunity, but the reality is today everyone's chasing copper. The push on copper price is higher. In my mind, it's hard to find a project that you could actually go out there and buy or a business where you're going to deliver an acceptable return to your investor. Never say never. There'll always be opportunities, but it'll always be done through the lens of value. Thank you. I'll pass on. Yeah. Thank you. Your next question comes from Rahul Anand with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. A couple for you, Graham, and one for Katie, if that's okay. The first one I had was the FY 2035 target to reach half of your emissions, operational emissions. Have you done any analysis around sort of what the capital costs or operating cost impacts might be on the back of that? How does Hillside fit into that picture? Yeah, look, one of the things we absolutely call out is when you look at the scope one, scope two emissions, 90% of it comes from four of our operations. As you'll see in the pack, there's one slide there that actually shows energy generation is a big contributor to Hillside and also Worsley. As we think about Hillside, part of the reason we talk about 2035 is that we're very conscious about managing our way through this process because Hillside's an important part of the South African economy. Roughly 30% of the actual product gets sold downstream to companies like Hulamin, which creates more jobs and more alliance in South Africa. We're also very conscious, if you like, there are a number of ways to work Hillside, is one. Eskom's got a public stated target of actually doing more about renewables in their own supply of energy. That's obviously something we're working with Eskom, very keenly seeing how that develops over the next decade, which is the timeframe they've given themselves. At the same time, we're also exploring a number of options through a project we've called Green Shoots at Hillside, and we're really focused on two elements. One is just around energy efficiency, which would be how we actually use, if you like, energy once we have it inside Hillside. The easy one there is the AP3XLE, which we've already rolled out at Mozal. We're looking at the application of that at Hillside. There are other things we're looking at there in terms of waste heat recovery, automated anode changes. There's a whole lot of new technology that's developing quickly in that space, which we think will help on the scope one or energy efficiency. On the other side, we're working with obviously other parties in South Africa, including Eskom, to see how they go on some of the energy source work they're doing when they're particularly looking at wind and solar. We think that offers quite a large opportunity in South Africa. 2035 gives us time to actually get this right. The reality is, I'm guessing most of the South32 or most people that have models, typically would only value the next power block, which runs you up to about 2031-ish in terms of timeframe. Clearly, this gives us enough time to transition to 2035 to a more renewable supply of power. Certainly have Katie and Dan. I don't know, Katie, if you want to add anything particularly on your side? No, fairly just to your point, that was the first program that was about being Green Shoots and we're actively studying green energy solutions. We'll probably get Grant Amos talking to what the options are. They'll primarily be your classic industrial studies are advanced to understand what the commercial options are there. Just to your question around what does that look like for capital, probably the focus in the short term will actually be at Worsley, where we have a number of projects that we're looking at. In the short term, the most obvious one is what we call the mud washing project at Worsley, and that has the ability to have a big impact, if you like, on energy intensity and requirements, but also how we use water. That's progressing through the study phase. The other one longer term is looking at how we actually convert from an energy source of coal to gas. That's certainly something that the team is working on down there at the same time. We did give some guidance in the pack when you look at the actual charters about what we expected to actually spend in the next two years. That was roughly $40 billion-$50 billion in terms of capital. Perfect. Thanks for that. Just checking that covers the question you had. Yes, it does. The second one I had for you, Graham, was around the Dendrobium coal mine, perhaps could be to Katie as well. AUD 450 million-AUD 550 million was the previous number. I'm citing AUD 420 million-AUD 520 million today in the pack. Is it fair to assume that you've probably tried to pare back a bit at Illawarra given the Dendrobium decision and what's the update there as well? I'll let Katie talk about the capital, and then I'll tell you where we're up to with Dendrobium. Yeah, sure. The AUD 420 million-AUD 520 million really is a number where we've carved out probably our innovation and improvement projects as opposed to the previous AUD 420 million-AUD 520 million number that we've talked to. Also, we've adjusted for FX. The previous AUD 420 million-AUD 520 million was at an AUD 0.59, and we're now assuming an AUD 0.78 at this level. That number is exclusive of any material changes in terms of our thinking around Illawarra, and we will certainly at the full year come back with an update in terms of what our full capital looks like. You would expect, as Graham said, AUD 420 million-AUD 520 million for sustaining CapEx, roughly AUD 40 million-AUD 50 million over a two-year window for decarb CapEx. You will see incremental investment in capital, which will encompass any decision we make around D&D, any decision we make around keeping Kincardine open through time, et cetera. Obviously any innovation and improvement projects that hit that appropriate hurdle rate. I think Katie's point is critical there because unlike when we started this journey six years ago, not only do we have those external options to be able to group around Arctic and Hermosa, we've also got some strong internal projects which are basically giving us the opportunity to invest in our business in high-returning projects. When you think about things like Osmot, Q&P, obviously, what we can potentially do at Cannington to bring forward some of that high-grade material. They're all the kind of things that will compete for capital. I think that's an important part of where we are today in terms of having options to actually create value for our shareholders. When it comes to D&D, as I said in the opening comments, we'll have greater clarity by the end of this calendar year. The reason I give you that background and that timeframe is, there are a number of developments that are underway. You would have seen, we talked earlier about we have a number of options in front of us. One included appealing the decision, another one was government intervention, and both of those are options that are being pursued at the moment. We actually have the appeal, if you like, currently running to the Land Court. The only thing I guess changed for us is you would have seen the New South Wales legislative council have passed a motion that considers D&D strategic infrastructure, and that really allows the minister to consider a revised proposal outside of the IPC process. It's still an approval process, but it's not the IPC approval process. The focus between now and November for us is to look at a revised mine plan that basically takes into consideration some of the issues that were raised by the IPC. Upon actually completing that revised mine plan and the feasibility study, we would then go through with the government to get an approval process on that, which is generally implied by what it looks like about a 24-week period upon receipt of the application. There is certainly some, if you like, a clearer path forward. For us, it's more about now developing and taking to feasibility level that revised mine plan at D&D. Okay, perfect. Katie, just the final question was a follow-up from Kaan. Katie, you talked about how you determined the $200 million number and how it leads you to about that $100 million net debt, post-payments of commitments for stake and the buyback. Should we take that $100 million net debt number as your target going forward? Look, I think we've talked to the fact that we want to maintain that interest rate through the cycle, and particularly the way we test that is in a forward low price scenario based on that forward view on our capital profile. You will expect to see that number move around somewhat. As our capital profile matures, as we make decisions around Hermosa, Illawarra, and so on. For now, as at today, look, we think that's the right net debt number for us to maintain that investment grade outcome on a forward view. Perfect. Okay, that's all from me. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on. Thanks, Rahul. Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Lyndon Fagan with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Thanks very much. Just to expand a bit on the emissions side of things. I'm just wondering whether you would consider direct ownership in renewable power assets to try and reduce emissions at your assets and, whether you think there could be a return there through lower OpEx. Yeah. Look, Lyndon, a good question. Obviously we'll have a look at every one of those on a case-by-case basis. To be perfectly honest, I'm not the person who would be willing to invest in renewables in South Africa when I think there are better people potentially set up to actually do that. I think they're gonna probably be better at actually building a renewable facility and actually running that. It doesn't mean you might not sign a longer-term offtake agreement that actually underpins it. We wouldn't be the people executing it or putting our capital into the country. Somewhere down like Worsley, it might be a little bit different depending on what the opportunities are that present themselves down there. Obviously, there is certainly, if you like, a large availability of green finance money across the world, and I think that's probably where the best bang for the buck is going to be. Thanks. Maybe just to sort of cover off a bit on Hermosa and Ambler Metals. There's obviously a bit of material in the slide pack on those assets. Just wondering if you could give us an update on potential production scope and timing. Yeah, look, if we take it into steps and take a step back. Maybe if we start with Ambler Metals, there was quite a detailed release that went out yesterday, would've been our time this morning, that actually mapped out the exploration program for this year. The way I think about, if you like, the exploration project for this program for this year, it's focused on basically three things. One is basically understanding more about the resource at actual Arctic and getting greater confidence around that. The second piece is there are a number of VMS-style targets in the VMS belt that we've been very explicit we like, and we show that on the slide pack. There's going to be some work around understanding them. There's drilling on about three of them, and there's a fair bit of sampling on the others to sort of get a sense of where to zero in on. There's a little bit more work around the Bornite deposits. Arctic to me is the key to this. Arctic itself today will absolutely be developed. If you look at the size and you look at the quality of that material, it's gonna be developed by someone. It's a question of when. I guess the key focus point for me is if we can find another Arctic style deposit in that VMS belt or even just add more tonnages, then I think you've got a real winner in terms of a project there. This drill season, which actually kicks off today, is gonna be an important part of that. The challenge up there, obviously, is we lost last year with COVID where we couldn't get on the ground. We've got the right protocols and systems in place this year, and there's been quite a high vaccination rate in the vulnerable communities. That gives us confidence about going back in again. Really can we add to Arctic is gonna be the key for that one, Lyndon. When it comes to Taylor, we called out today that we're on track to complete the pre-feasibility study around the Taylor deposit, and we'll talk to the market about that in July. In that, we'll be very clear around CapEx, throughput, timing, et cetera. I think there are some positive developments sort of coming legislatively, potentially, if you like, in U.S. We've already seen part of the reason that Clark is attractive is because obviously it's leaning towards battery technology. The manganese is actually on the critical list, if you like, of minerals in the U.S., which helps you potentially fast-track the permitting process. There is some talk now that zinc will also be added to that. They're all the things that we'll weigh up as we complete the pre-feasibility study. We certainly plan to have a deep dive in July, which we'll talk, if you like, about the capital component, the production rate, the timing, et cetera. I think the one thing that's certainly not disappointing is around the resource. The resource continues to be open. At depth, the ore sort of material, we're actually going to be doing a lot of the work, particularly as we go in with shafts, will allow us to actually access that high-grade material quicker. Again, we'll go into much more detail when we complete the pre-feasibility study. Thanks, Graham. Thank you. Your next question comes from Paul McTaggart with Citigroup. Please go ahead. Morning, all. Just two things. Firstly, just to firm up on the provisions that get passed across with the sale of SAEC. I think it's $900 odd million. Can you just firm that up? Around Worsley, potentially transitioning from sulfide to gas. That's okay as a kind of transition, I guess. Beyond that, gas probably doesn't cut the mustard for many people. Do you have plans further down the track or long-term plans to use an alternative to gas? Absolutely. I'll get Katie to talk to the provisions, Paul, and then I'll talk about the second piece, if you like, around our thinking about that down at Worsley. Thank you. Paul, just in terms of provisions, as we've said, it is a share sale, so all assets and liabilities will transfer on completion on the 1st of June. With that, the $875 million of provisions that we recorded that half year will move across. Okay, thank you. Paul, with regards to Worsley and maybe taking a step back in two fronts, is one, absolutely, we believe gas is obviously a transitionary energy source. We don't think that will be the permanent one, and obviously we'll look longer term at South32 around what can be done around solar, potentially hydrogen involved. That's certainly on the mind at the team. The transition from coal to gas is also not going to happen overnight because we need to manage a just transition around Collie. We're also very conscious that the suppliers of our coal also feed, if you like, some of the offtake we take, some of the offtake goes into the power station that supplies the grid with power. Pulling the pin on that is obviously problematic. We need to work through that piece of work. I think that taking a further step back, though, you would've seen Alcoa recently talked about their EcoSource, and they talked about the alumina carbon intensity, and they talked about the fact that out of Pinjarra, Wagerup, they were probably running at about 0.6%, if you like, CO2 emissions per ton of alumina. The global average is about 1.2%. Today, Worsley runs at about 0.83% because of that dependency on coal. Certainly we believe, the move to what we're doing around mud washing, what we're going to do around the conversion from coal to gas, will actually allow us to get in the ballpark of a similar kind of number we're talking about that Alcoa has today. Okay. Thank you. I should also add, already at Brazil, we're at 0.54%, so that's something we shouldn't lose sight of as well. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Kerr for closing remarks. Thanks everyone for joining us for on awful short notice. The overriding message I'd leave you with, look, our business is in a strong position. We've got a great foundation to build from with well-performing operations. We have a strong balance sheet. We have high-quality growth options, attractive metals and dividend streams, and a plan to decarbonize our business. The removal of SAEC from South32 vastly simplifies the group, and certainly puts us on a trajectory to continue to actually move towards that low-carbon future. Thanks everyone for your time today. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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