Good morning. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Home Capital Group Q3 financial results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. Thank you. Jill MacRae, VP of Investor Relations, you may begin. Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today, and apologies for the slight delay in the start time. Our agenda for today's presentation is as follows. We'll begin the call with remarks from Yousry Bissada, Home's President and CEO. Brad Kotush, our CFO, will then review our financial performance, which will be followed by a question-and-answer period for participants. We have members of our senior management team with us on the call to help answer your questions. On behalf of those speaking today, I note that this call may contain forward-looking statements and that actual results could differ materially from forecasts, projections, or conclusions in these statements. Please refer to our advisory on forward-looking statements on page two of the presentation. I would also remind listeners that Home uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results and that management will be referring to both reported and adjusted results in their remarks. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Yousry Bissada. Good morning, and thanks for joining. I'm pleased to be speaking to you today about our Q3 results. This was a quarter of good progress along the road back to the new normal of working and living conditions that we all miss and wanna get back to. I am pleased and comforted with the prudent and measured approach to opening up that governments, we here at Home Capital, and other businesses are taking to ensure that any progress is sustainable and enduring. We are seeing the benefits of this approach, not just in the form of higher GDP and employment figures, but also in the ability of people to gather safely again. Here at Home Capital, this was a quarter of progress as we moved forward in all areas of our operation, executing on our plans for our core business, technology, and our deposit operation. Today, I'll be discussing the current state of the housing affordability, our activities during the quarter, our outlook for the balance of the year, and our capital structure. After a bit of a breather earlier this summer, sales volume in September and October seem to be picking up across all housing types in our major markets. Prices have moved steadily higher as the growth in new listings is not keeping pace with the growth in sales. Attention is turning to the supply side of the equation to address the affordability gap. Here at Home, we're happy to see this. Canadians have repeatedly demonstrated their passion and commitment to homeownership, and we share their view that everyone deserves the comfort and security of a home. While it will require years of commitment and the coordination from all levels of governments as well as developers, lenders, and investors to create sustainable solutions, the current level of attention to this subject is a good first step. Turning to our Q3 earnings. Today, we're reporting net income of CAD 1.08 per share. We delivered strong growth in our book value and return on equity. Our teams also did a lot of work to set us up for future growth, and I'm pleased with the progress in a number of key areas this quarter. First, in originations. Our residential sales and underwriting team followed up a strong Q2 with an even better Q3. The processes and strategies we have put in place to drive growth are functioning the way we intended. For instance, working with our broker partners to become more efficient at processing applications and using the capability of our new CRM system to increase broker engagement. On the commercial side, originations picked up over Q2, and we're adding good business in attractive segments of the market. While we have started to benefit from a return to pre-pandemic underwriting guidelines during the quarter, we delivered this growth without compromising the prudent underwriting standards that we are known for. Our healthy credit experience this quarter and for the year to date reflects the underwriting discipline. Not only were our credit losses minimal, but the percentage of non-performing loans as a share of gross loans has declined to below pre-pandemic levels. Further, the continuing upward revision to economic outlook led to an additional release of our credit allowance. Brad will discuss more specifics on this portion of his presentation. Turning to our funding side, customer deposits through our Oaken channel grew to CAD 4.3 billion, and I'm happy to announce that our Oaken branch launched the Oaken app in early October for both iOS and Android devices. The launch follows extensive testing and feedback in one of our agile working groups. It offers flexibility, intuitive navigation, and an excellent user experience, as well as the ability for our customers to review their accounts with us 24/7. Our launch of the Oaken app aligns with our strategy of serving customers the way they want to be served. We are working to increase engagement with the app across all our Oaken customers. Over time, we'll be adding more features to enable a broader range of transaction options. I look forward to sharing our progress with you all. Beyond Oaken, we continue to move forward with our funding diversification plan. We closed our third RMBS transaction in October. The attractive terms make this a competitive option for funding our growth. Earlier this week, we participated in a bank-sponsored securitization conduit. Together, these instruments added an additional CAD 675 million of liquidity to our funding mix. We will continue to expand these and other funding sources in the future. Having more options ensure we're a reliable source for growth and competitive pricing. Our Ignite Program is moving forward. We are focused on the development and testing required to support the next wave of upgrades that will focus on the efficiency of our deposit operations. Our team have been hard at work to give us the tools and resources we need to build an organization that is ready to meet the challenges of the future. Now, looking at our plans for opening up here at home. I'm happy to say we have begun to welcome back people into our office. We took the step of requiring proof of vaccination for returning employees. We want our employees and our customers to feel comfortable when they are dealing with people from home, and we are taking steps to make them safe. At this stage, nearly all employees are back in the office one to two days per week as we shape what is the right mix of hybrid working model will look like for us. It is great to see the faces of the home team and hear conversations fill the office environments. People are excited to be together again and learning to thrive in a hybrid meeting and work. It's no surprise that in addition to being a great place to work, Home was named to Best Workplaces in Financial Services & Insurance for 2021. I wanna say a word about our capital plans, which Brad will discuss in more detail later on. We are pleased with the announcement by OSFI updating regulatory expectations around capital return. Accordingly, we have announced plans for CAD 300 million substantial issuer bid or SIB. This is consistent with our earlier communication that we would move swiftly to achieve our target CET1 ratio. We understand one of our most important responsibilities to our shareholders is effective management of capital. We recognize that the excess capital we're holding is a drag on ROE and that the profitability we're able to deliver. The SIB is the first step towards achieving an ROE that reflects the true profitability of this great business we're in. Looking ahead, we still believe the conditions are in place for a healthy housing market. Our broker partners report robust demand in our major markets, with sales gains in all categories of homes, including renewed strength in condominium sales. Employment numbers are increasing, so people are going back to work. The data on the deposit balances show that consumers have a lot of savings. We continue to follow the Bank of Canada on the timing and magnitude of rate increases and the potential effect on the market. However, we are not yet seeing cause for concern about credit. Our economic indicators are strong, and the B-20 stress test provides some affordability cushion against higher rates. In addition, the shorter duration of alternative mortgage book provides an up-to-date view on borrowers' ability to pay. We will continue to drive value for our open customers and take advantage of opportunities to diversify our funding. We will work to improve our return on equity for shareholders by optimizing our capital structure. Now, I would like to turn it over to Brad for a financial review. Thank you, Yousry, and good morning, everyone. This segment of the presentation begins on slide 6. Net income for the quarter was CAD 54.8 million, a decrease of 6.3% compared with the CAD 58.5 million in Q3 2020. Adjusted net income was CAD 56 million. Q3 net income per share was CAD 1.08 for the quarter compared with CAD 1.12 in Q3 2020. Adjusted net income per share was CAD 1.10 after adjustments related to our Ignite Program. Book value increased by 16.4% year-over-year to CAD 36.40 per share and return on equity was 12.2% for the quarter or 12.5% on an adjusted basis. Once again, we generated double-digit return on equity while holding substantial levels of excess CET1 capital. Slide 7 shows the sources of the change in earnings per share compared with Q3 2020. EPS was down by CAD 0.04 or 3.6%. Last year's earnings had the benefit of a higher reversal of credit provisions, partially offset by increases in EPS as a result of the lower number of shares. Average shares outstanding were lower due to normal course issuer bids during the year. Our net interest margin was 2.58% for the quarter, compared with 2.61% in Q2 and 2.51% one year ago. The year-over-year increase in NIM is mainly due to lower funding costs and contributed CAD 0.03 to the change in net income. Our expectation based on our current outlook for interest rates, asset mix and competition with other lenders is that there may be modest volatility in our net interest margin for the balance of 2021. Pre-tax, pre-provision net income was consistent with Q3 2020. On a sequential basis, adjusted EPS was down from CAD 1.44 to CAD 1.10, primarily due to lower reversals of provisions and higher non-interest expenses. Those expenses were up primarily from an increase in employee compensation, including employee incentives and severance costs. Our efficiency ratio is 47.3%, similar to one year ago. Slide 8 shows originations and loans outstanding in our single-family residential portfolio. Originations grew by 34% over the same quarter last year, with particular strength in our classic portfolio. Classic single family on balance sheet as of the end of Q3 grew 4% year-over-year. Originations in our commercial business declined in the Q3 compared with Q3 of 2020. Q3 of 2020 was an unusually active quarter for us due to favorable competitive dynamics in place at that time. Originations picked up over Q2 with emphasis on land and construction rather than restaurants and hotels. On a year-over-year basis, commercial loans on balance sheet at the end of the quarter decreased by 10%, resulting from payouts of securitized product as well as loans to retail stores and stores and apartments in particular. Our Oaken channel experienced good inflows this quarter and now makes up 31% of our total funding. The percentage of Oaken deposits held in savings rather than GICs increased to 23.5% from 18% as depositors are less inclined to lock in their funds in a period where rates may rise. Our overall Oaken balances increased by CAD 82 million or 10% year-over-year. For the year to date, inflows through our Oaken channel have accounted for all of our deposit growth as we've used a variety of other funding options to provide liquidity. As Yousry said, subsequent to the end of the quarter, we went live on our digital banking app. Everyone here at home is excited about the potential of this new platform. Following the end of the quarter, we announced the successful completion of our second RMBS offering of 2021 at an effective yield of 1.528% on the Class A notes. We are pleased that the pricing spread over Government of Canada bonds has narrowed with each issuance. Subject to market conditions, we will continue to be a programmatic issuer of RMBS. We also participated in a bank-sponsored securitization conduit. Slide 11 shows the details of our credit provisioning this quarter. We booked a reversal of CAD 3.8 million compared with a reversal of CAD 7 million in Q3 2020. The inputs to our third-party economic models continue to trend upwards, particularly the data on employment. The CAD 3.8 million reversal is split roughly evenly between our Stage 1, 2, and Stage 3 loans. Looking at lines of business, the most significant contributor to the provision reversal was our commercial portfolio, driven by both changes in risk parameters and actual repayments in this portfolio. For the year to date, provision reversals have totaled CAD 34.7 million, compared with provisions of CAD 41.8 million in 2020. Commercial loans have accounted for 62% of all year-to-date reversals of credit provisions. As a percentage of gross loans shown on slide 12, reversals of credit provisions were 9 basis points for the quarter on an annualized basis and 26 basis points for the year to date. Net write-offs for the year were CAD 0.2 million across all lines of business for the quarter, or approximately 1 basis point. For the year to date, net write-offs totaled CAD 0.4 million, or less than 1 basis point of gross loans. For the first three quarters of 2020, net write-offs were CAD 26.2 million or 20 basis points of gross loans, of which the majority was attributable to our retail consumer lending portfolio. The inputs to our economic models improved for levels of unemployment, as shown on slide 13, while the outlook for housing prices showed minor decreases across all scenarios. The total probability weighted loan loss allowance was CAD 35.7 million at the end of the quarter, while the allowance using just the base case declined from Q2 to CAD 27.7 million. The probability weighted allowance was approximately CAD 8 million higher than the allowance would have been using just the base case. The next slide shows a breakdown of our CAD 35.7 million allowance for credit losses as of the end of Q3. The chart on the right shows that 79% of our loan loss allowance is attributable to our Stage 1 and 2 loans. The allowance has decreased in all our lending categories due to general improvements in FLI, in addition to repayments and releases or reclassification of loans previously categorized as Stage 3. Non-performing loans have declined significantly, as shown on slide 15. Net non-performing loans now make up only 15 basis points of our total gross loans. Meanwhile, our allowance coverage has increased to 22.1% of total Stage 3 loans. Slide 16 shows our CET1 capital ratio of 22.57% at the end of the quarter, an increase of 30 basis points from the end of Q2. For the year-to-date, we have spent approximately CAD 70 million to buy back over 2.1 million shares at an average price of CAD 32.73. This represents a discount of 10% to our quarter-end book value. Because we were able to use cash at the holding company level, year-to-date NCIB activity has had no impact on our regulatory capital. As Yousry mentioned, we plan to achieve a CET1 ratio within our stated target range of 14 to 15% by the end of next year. Today's announcement of our CAD 300 million substantial issuer bid marks a significant first step towards achieving our target CET1 ratio. Now I will turn the call back to Yousry for closing remarks. Well, thank you, Brad. Now I'll ask Chris to poll for questions. Thank you. At this time, I'll just remind everyone, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our first question is from Étienne Ricard with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open. Thank you and good morning. Good morning, Étienne. Congrats on the quarter and the return of capital. On this topic, in prior conference calls, we talked about expectations for your capital to decline to target levels within an 18 to 24- month period. Now, the new plan of reaching the target, you know, 14 to 15% CET1 ratio by the end of 2022 is looking even better. What else is on your roadmap to return more capital by the end of 2022 in addition to the substantial issuer bid? Yeah. Thanks, Étienne. We've been consistent in focusing on share repurchases and mechanisms to as the valuation is where we view it attractive for us to repurchase shares. That's been our focus. We do plan on renewing option of a quarterly dividend after we've completed those share repurchase activities. You're right, we have accelerated the timeframe. Since we talked, it's just a matter of utilizing those facilities. As I said, we've announced the CAD 300 million SIB, which we expect to close by the end of Q4, that expires on January twenty-first. Then we will review once the SIB has closed, we'll then review our- How confident are you in a potential credit rating upgrade, and how would that help Home if you're funding from, you know, even more funding sources? I think it would be very helpful. You know, our view is that we should receive a rating upgrade, but that's beyond our control other than the continued performance and how we can demonstrate that to the relevant agencies. Clearly, an upgrade would open up the deposit note market on a competitive basis, and that would probably be the first thing that we would turn to once we reach investment grade from both our credit rating agencies. That would be extremely helpful. It is not incorporated in any of our liquidity plans. As I said earlier, we're highly confident that we will continue to be a programmatic issuer of RMBS, and that we will continue to work in opening other lines and perhaps be able to participate in further securitization activities. Great. Thank you for your comments. You're welcome. Our next question is from Nigel D'Souza with Veritas Investment Research. Your line is open. Thank you. Good morning. I first wanted to ask a granular question on your PCL reversals this quarter. When I look at your loan category, specifically single-family residential mortgages, I see that there was a reversal in your Stage 3 loans there. I wanted to maybe tackle this a different way. You know, first trying to understand what caused these loans to migrate into Stage 3 to begin with. I ask that given a backdrop of deferrals and substantial fiscal support programs. Could you share with us what the impairment trigger was in the first place to classify these loans as Stage 3? Well, typically, it would be missed payments and some behavior. They would be over 90 days would generally automatically put them into Stage 3 or sorry, 60 days would automatically put them into Stage 3. As we went through, our current delinquency rate is better than it was pre-pandemic, and we've just seen a decline in those Stage 3s as they're either brought current or otherwise dealt with by our collections team. Got it. From what I understand, the Stage 3 reversals are reflective of workouts. You know, when these borrowers resume their payments, are they resuming the payments at the original contracted mortgage rate, or are they resuming the payments at the current mortgage rate? It depends on the situation. We may do a restructuring of the loan, and then that becomes a refinance and gets re-underwritten. Okay. The reason I ask. Sorry. Just so if it's brought up to date, we would continue as is. The reason I ask that is if we do have an environment of rising interest rates, does that at all, you know, impact the potential for Stage 3 reversals that we're currently seeing in single-family residential? A lot of that movement in and out of Stage 3 is typically related to their payment or bringing it current. Okay. We're comfortable. Sorry, just to expand on that in anticipation of further comments. We're comfortable with affordability cause as you may recall, with this introduction of the stress test in 2018, all the mortgages are stressed to a 2% increase. That's something that gives us a lot of comfort. Okay. That's really helpful. If I could end on a broader question, you know, from what I understand, if interest rates move up and mortgage rates are turning higher, that benefits the near-prime space. You have probably higher retention rates and maybe even a migration from prime to near-prime. Is it possible for you to quantify that benefit in any sense in terms of incremental mortgage growth? How much incremental mortgage growth or market share do you think you could gain for the first 100 basis points increase in interest rates and the second 100 basis points increase in interest rates? Well, there's probably two things are gonna happen. One is that you need to keep in mind in the near-prime space there's typically a lag in mortgage rates moving with deposit rates. It doesn't happen immediately. We saw some of that in 2018 when the rates rose. It took some time for the rate increases to take effect across the market. We do think that we could get more volumes, as you said, we'd probably get more deals as they can't qualify at major banks. You're right, the book would be stickier. Okay. Appreciate that color. Thank you. You're welcome. Our next question is from Jaeme Gloyn with NBF. Your line is open. Yeah, thanks. First question, just on the credit side, on the Stage 2 loans, noticing an increase in single-family Stage 2 loans, increasing quarter-over-quarter. Is there anything that you can draw out from that movement? Yeah. I think it's really just ordinary movement as we go through. I don't think there's anything that you would take away that's talking about the overall deterioration of the portfolio change. Okay. With respect to the bank-sponsored securitization conduit, like, how do the loans that you're placing into that conduit compare to the RMBS loans and also compare to the broader portfolio? They're probably closer to, they have similar covenant quality. They are classic loans that we're putting in there. I'd say it's pretty similar to the RMBS. Would that be of similar or higher or weaker credit quality or loan quality compared to the broader portfolio? Similar. Okay. In terms of the credit recoveries today and looking at the ACLs versus the base case scenario at CAD 8 million, what's a reasonable expectation to think about in terms of how much of that can still be released here over time? Our view right now, if referring to the residential portfolio, is that aside from stage migration, we're probably not going to see, and subject to any significant improvements in the forward-looking information, we're probably not gonna see any significant recoveries in the single-family ACL. The portfolio growth as we continue to originate more loans is going to presumably generate ACLs. We're gonna generate provisions as opposed to reversals. As you saw in the results, commercial is a little more volatile. The loans are typically a much larger size. So that's something that will move separately from our overall expectation related to our residential portfolio. The other two portfolios I think are relatively stable. Another way of summarizing it is we do think that as residential grows, we'll probably be booking provisions instead of recoveries, and commercial depends on volume and staging. Okay. Got it. Last one for me, just in terms of the non-securitized net interest margin declining for a couple of quarters in a row here. Still high historically but declining for a couple of quarters in a row. What are you seeing on the portfolio evolution early here in Q4? Is this a trend that looks like it could continue as mortgages continue to renew at slightly lower rates and the deposit pricing starts to back up a little bit? Is this something we should expect for a couple of quarters here at least? Yes, is the short answer, Jaeme. It's a competitive market. We're seeing strong competition in the overall market. You know, obviously we're striving, but it's competitive. One thing that's happening is that we're really pleased with the originations. As we build our prime book up, we're gonna wanna be keeping more of it. Our goal is to keep more of these mortgages on our balance sheet so that any marginal declines in NIM will be more than made up for increases in volume. Okay. On that same theme, we've, you know, I've heard one of your competitors talk about maybe leaving interest rates a little bit lower through the initial rate hike cycle. Is this something you've given thought to to maintain a little bit more spread as the deposit costs increase generally? Sorry, maybe are you talking about the mortgage rates or deposit rates? No, deposit rates. Holding deposit rates stable while prime rates and the Bank of Canada is hiking interest rates in that environment. Is that something you've given thought to as a strategy to maintain margin stability? Jaeme, it's Yousry here. The main driver is competitive forces. You can want to not change your rates to widen spread, but competitive forces may force you to move because we compete with a lot of different financial institutions on the deposit side as we do on the lender side. You can manage it as best you can, but you gotta get the volumes you're looking for. Okay, great. Thank you very much. Thanks, Jaeme. Our next question is from Graham Ryding with TD Securities. Your line is open. Hi. Hi. Good morning. Any details on the timeline? Excuse me. The timeline and the process for this substantial issuer bid? Yeah. Well, we announced today, Graham, as you know, and we're intending to close by the end of Q4, and that's probably as specific as we're going to be as we work through a seasoning process to determine bid price range. Yeah. Sorry, Graham. I kind of got ahead of myself there. Yes. Okay. Excuse me. Jumping to you made a comment, just volatility around NIM potentially. I think it was more of a near-term comment, but what we've driven such as reflection of competition or what were you? I missed your message there. It's certainly competition on the asset side as well as on the liability side. We're very much focused on growing our book through origination. To a certain extent, we are being perhaps more competitive on rates than we have been previously and particularly through the pandemic. I think I'd refer back to remarks that Yousry had made on our last call in terms of we had more conservative underwriting criteria through the pandemic. We relaxed it. Sorry, not relaxed it. We've gone back to our old stringent underwriting standards, and we're also expanding some of our geographies where we want to look at increasing our exposure. We're very much focused on growth while you know, being very prudent with our NIM. Understood. What would some of those new geographies be that you're targeting? Well, it's more an expansion of some of the postal codes. We get very granular with where we're focused as well as we may now be working with higher loan to values, and we adapt our pricing towards that. We have a great underwriting team who takes a look, and most of it will still be focused in our Ontario and BC markets. Okay. As you're exiting 2022 and hopefully your capital has been right sized into that targeted 14 to 5% CET1 ratio, what sort of ROE are you targeting beyond that? Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. We're just having a small technical difficulty. Conference will resume momentarily. Again, this is the operator. Sorry for the delay. Please stand by. Just waiting for the line to reconnect. Thank you. Again, sorry for the delay. We should have our presenters back on the line in just a moment. Please stand by. Hello? Sorry for the delay, ladies and gentlemen. We do now have the speaker line reconnected.
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