Hi, welcome to today's event where we have the pleasure to present OrderYOYO. With us on the call or the event today, we have both the CFO, CEO, and Chairman of the board. Of course, it's not a delightful situation, but the reason for this call or event today is the small adjustment to the guidance for 2021 to 2023. The event will take place where we will do a short presentation around 5 to 7 minutes, and after that there will be room for asking questions. Do not hesitate to ask the questions in the meantime while we are doing the presentation. I will collect it all. You ask questions down in the box on your right side. On this short notice, I think I will hand it over to you, Søren, and you can take us through the short presentation. Yes. Thank you for the introduction, Michael. As Michael said, my name is Søren Gammelgaard, CEO of OrderYOYO. I'm here with Jesper Johansen, our Chairman, and Jesper Hyveled, our CFO. I'll just take a short walkthrough of the announcement yesterday, and then we will go to a Q&A as Michael said. Michael, if you could change to the next slide. Yeah. Yesterday we announced our updated guidance for 2021 and expectations for 2022 and 2023 as a direct consequence of post-COVID market conditions. In our company description, we guided on 3 metrics, ARR equivalent to December MRR annualized, GMV run rate equivalent to December restaurant partner revenue annualized, and finally, we have guided on our full year EBITDA result. In our 2021 half year report from August 25, we provided a guidance on total year-end restaurant partners as well. Now, in the updated guidance announcement yesterday, we're additionally giving guidance on our full year fiscal net revenue. If we start with the full year net revenue, we are expecting a total net revenue for 2021 in the range between 102.5 to 107.5 million DKK, which is equivalent to a growth between 40% to 47% compared to full year 2020 net revenue. As per our half year report from August 25th, the net revenue for the 1st 6 months of 2021 totaled 53.6 million DKK. Our guidance on December 2021 ARR equivalent to annualized December MRR, as I said, our previous guidance was in the range between 125-135 million. Now, with the updated guidance announcement yesterday, we are lowering the range to DKK 110 million-DKK 125 million corresponding to a growth of between 6% to 20% compared to December 2020 ARR. Our updated December GMV guidance is between DKK 1.1 billion-DKK 1.4 billion compared to our previous guidance of between DKK 1.4 billion-DKK 1.5 billion. We've adjusted the full-year EBITDA from the latest guidance, between DKK 5 million-DKK 10 million to now expecting an EBITDA result close to zero. Finally, as a direct consequence of the U.K. market development and trends, which I'll talk through on the next slide, the total number of restaurant partners by year-end 2021 is adjusted from 5,250 to now total 5,000 restaurant partners. The 5,000 restaurant partners by year-end is actually equivalent to what we originally expected in our company description in the IPO. If you can shift, Michael, to slide 23. I'll now talk through some of the market trends that we have experienced post-COVID pertaining to the reopening of societies from lockdown to what we call normality. These market trends are in particular relevant for the U.K. market. The Danish, Irish, and German markets all perform according to what we planned. As per our 2021 half-year report, U.K. market makes up approximately 60% of total ARR, which is the reason for the adjusted guidance just presented. In our half-year report 2021, we highlighted that we expected a slowdown in the growth of online takeaway ordering following the reopening of societies post-COVID. The slowdown of online takeaway ordering post-COVID was included in our earlier full-year guidance. However, we do see an extraordinary difficult situation for our restaurant partners in the U.K., as I said. The current U.K. market is in general under severe pressure, as per the announcement yesterday, both in terms of lack of employees in critical parts of the economy, as well as lack of supply of goods in general. These market conditions has led to a slower than expected growth in our restaurant partners in the U.K. and has consequently led to an increased closedown of restaurants across the U.K. The U.K. market has therefore seen an extraordinary and unexpected closedown of restaurants since the reopening in July and August. The extraordinary situation in the U.K. was not anticipated, which has led to an estimated delay of the expected growth in the U.K. market. However, despite these challenging, you could say, market conditions in the U.K., we do continue to anticipate strong long-term growth rates for the coming years in U.K. and in the other markets. As I said in the beginning, the Danish, Irish, German markets all perform according to plan. This short walkthrough of the announcement yesterday ends the presentation, Michael, so I think we'll move to Q&A. Michael? Yeah, sorry. I also needed to turn on the microphone. A little bit of a household question. How much of the negative effect is due to the expected slowdown of online ordering due to reopening the society, and how much is due to the negative effects you are seeing in the U.K., the extraordinary situation? Can you elaborate a little bit? If I read the message, I thought that you had expected this slowdown and your guidance downgrade was only because of the U.K. situation, but is that correct? Yes, that is correct. You might say you had already expected that the post-COVID-19 world would slow a little bit down in online ordering, but it's the special situation that takes all of the rest of the downgrade here. Perfect. Then the 6 months delay, of course, it's there's a question, why do we expect six months delays? Do you expect this situation to clear up in the U.K.? Do we have some signals that can explain why you say 6 months? Of course, it's nice that you give us a timeline. Nobody, not everybody would do that, but if you can elaborate a little bit on why it's six months delay. Yes. So yeah, the 6 months delays is what we anticipate for 2021, 2022, in U.K. market in terms of restaurant partners. Of course, I mean, I'll hand it over to Jesper. But the 6 months is what we see in our current numbers. That's the reason, delayed by 6 months in current plan where we are now. It is really you can see it in your numbers that the curve has shifted down. And that's why you're giving us a kind of a good, very good guidance that the curve on your input factors that you are estimating your growth on. That's the reason why, if I understand it correctly. If I may add here, yes, we have, and I think it's a good question because why is it 6 months? People. We don't have a crystal ball and can say that this situation will change in 6 months' time in U.K. What you will probably see from the numbers as well is that we do expect that it's a 6-month delay. If you look at the growth rates that we have put into our new expectations, especially for 2023, it's actually a little lower than it was in the original plan. Said in another way, we have actually put in a time buffer for 2023, to make sure that if we are not seeing a cleanup in the situation in the U.K. after 6 months, we still we do not at that point in time have to make a new adjustment because we have put in a little buffer. Because of course, we don't have a crystal ball. What we can see is the numbers where we are, it looks like it's as Søren say, it's a 6 months delay. And that's why we say we expect it's a 6 months delay. That's what we're working towards. That's what we internally is working towards in terms of getting new restaurants, helping our restaurant partners. Of course, if the situation carries on in the U.K. for 12 months, we will be further delayed, but we have put in some buffer, especially in 2023, to ensure that we will not at that point in time have to go out and adjust again. It's not you trying to guess when the situation will clear up in the U.K. It's really mathematically perfect. That's a very good answer. There's a question, you know, lack of employees, lack of goods, as you mentioned in your statement yesterday, how is that directly hitting you as a partner? You know, I think the restaurant closed down. Is it temporarily? Is it maybe a little bit elaboration on these factors in the U.K., which we don't experience at home here in Denmark or in the Nordic region. If you can give a little bit how that is hitting your clients. Is it lower sales? Yeah. Is it closed downs? Our core segment is the sort of what we call QSR, quick-service restaurants that has their own delivery. They have delivery as part of their business. Lack of employees is both in terms of delivery, having delivery capabilities, and as well employees in the shops, which requires to some extent for some close downs. That's the lack of employees or and in particular on the driver side. In terms of lack of supplies, that's a effect of the matter in the U.K., which means that the goods to sell is diminished as well. Simply if I should take it very simple, some simply might have to shut down the delivery, and then you are not relevant in that restaurant. Yes. Secondly, there's less orders if I can't get my chicken fingers. Yes or whatever, you know. That is how it's hitting you. Of course some restaurant closures. The next question is actually to that, because there's a question here where people would like if you could give some sense how much is lost business because restaurants are closed and are closed for good because they will not open again, and how much is maybe someone turning off you about running a restaurant. If you can give us some sense on that. Yeah. I think it's both the close down of restaurants and the shift of sales channels as well, in the source. It's both. There is here, there's a very direct question. How much is derived from the decreased capacity among your retained restaurant partners and how much is churn? I guess if a restaurant closes down, it's lying in your churn. It's a little bit. Can you give a little bit elaboration? I said a little bit too early to see in your numbers how much is, I guess, what you would call lost forever or could be churned on again when they again can employ someone delivering and such stuff. What are your feelings here? Yeah. We, I mean, first and foremost, we actively churn if it's a churn. If it's closed, then of course, if situation changes in the U.K., and the shop reopens again, that's a win back. We actively churn if the shop is closed, either permanently of course, or temporarily. Can you give us? I think the question is a little bit, and I don't know whether you want to give that data, how much is temporarily shut down because they might not be able to deliver because they can't get a delivery guy, and how much is closed restaurants? To get a little bit of what could easily come back on and what might be harder to go out and retain again. We can take it another way. We're actually guiding the number of restaurant partners now from 5,250 to 5,000. That's 250 less than yesterday basically. Those 250 is actually restaurants that we are churning in the U.K., because they, for the time being, either is out of business or is totally closed. Absolutely. That our total restaurant base in the U.K. is around 3,000, I guess. That's something like around 77% of our estate in the U.K. is actually closing down. If you go up in the helicopter, what we have seen is actually, if you look at the total number of restaurants in the total U.K., it's actually up to 10% of all the restaurants that are closed. Okay that are being closed in the U.K. Now, how many of those, and this is where this industry is probably a little special. How many of those restaurants will open again under a different name or a new owner in 3, 6, 12 months time? It's difficult to say, but currently what you see in the U.K. market is up to 10% closed down, closures of restaurants throughout all different segments in the industry. If you look at our numbers, it looks like it is around 7%, extraordinary closures that we for the time being have taken out of our portfolio. If they reopen and we don't know whether that happens, we can resell again, but that will be a new restaurant in our book. Does that make sense? My feeling, and you're also calling it next one, and might be a leading question, but I'm sitting and feeling and looking at my TV, the world is closing down again. Actually, you should experience some of the- Yeah A little bit more. You should experience a little bit more of the situations that you that really drive the takeout orders. Sitting here, I do know it's an extraordinary situation. If they can't get employees, they can't get employees. In general, the trend on the online takeout market, the takeout market, are you still optimistic on that? Maybe the situation if we come into some harsh winter months might change the situation where some people will actually move back to those jobs. A little bit of a feeling on that, and I know now we are really looking in the crystal ball. If you look in the crystal ball and say how the employment market is in the U.K., but in general terms, our business model, direct online ordering for resale, as a sales channel for restaurants is still and remains very, very relevant. Online ordering in general as well is a trend that will continue. As I said in the intro, we did anticipate post-COVID a minor or a decrease in online ordering before COVID to post-COVID, but it's definitely a general trend that will continue, online ordering of takeaway. There's a very direct question. Are your restaurant partners churning because they really can't get employees or are they pressured on the money side, so they can't afford you? That's if you understand the question, there can be the difference where they need to try and see. I guess when you pay them as a part of their extra business you get by them, then I'm not sure that should be the big part. But can you elaborate a little? Is there maybe also some crunch on the credit side? You know, people cannot afford to have this service, or is it only the supply side, you know, they cannot get people? I mean, as a sales channel, direct online ordering, what we provide to our restaurant partners is a less expensive alternative to the higher commissions paid on portal. Whether they close for our sales channel vis-a-vis a portal wouldn't make sense for a restaurant. Now, of course, a walk-in or a direct, which without online ordering is of course a cheaper alternative, whether it's over the phone. I can't say exact numbers as to how many or if any will close down. In general, our value proposition of direct online ordering for the restaurant is when you talk online, less expensive than the portal offering. Of course there's always a question about timing. When did you start seeing this in the numbers? You know, it is a small adjustment and you are volatile, but did you see anything when you last reported? We talked, we spoke, was it August that you didn't see anything in the numbers there? When did this start to come into your numbers and really realizing that there might be some problems, that of course we all see in the news about the U.K.? If you can elaborate a little bit on that. I think last time we were all guiding and were on this webinar was August 25 in connection with our half year report. At that time we did say that we did expect, and that was in our guidance even from the IPO, a slowdown in 2021 compared to 2022. We did anticipate that already when we made our half year report in August 25. Now what is different is the market conditions in general as I mentioned in the beginning in the U.K., which we didn't see at that time. Yeah. There's a little bit of a question. U.K. might be a volatile market for some period, you're also saying 6 months. Is there somewhere where you might see you can push some maybe some resources, or something to make up for maybe focusing somewhere else than the U.K. until the situation maybe a little bit more normalizes over there? Some thoughts about that. Not in our current plan. U.K. is and still remains by far the biggest takeaway market in Europe and in our, as I said in the beginning as well, it makes up 60% of our ARR, and by far where we have the biggest potential. If the question is whether we will locate some of those resources to other markets, then no. We continue with the plan that we have in the current markets. We of course monitor and follow the U.K. market. That is still the main growth driver for future growth. There's a little bit of a housekeeping question here. Can you disclose a little bit about the math behind it? Because it looks like on the GMV side it's a much bigger. You give a much bigger range now, and it's a much bigger taken down than what you do on your ARR or on the restaurant partners. Can you give a little bit about those math that you are deriving from the GMV. You take a percentage of that, so that's taken more down than your ARR and your number of restaurant partners. A little bit elaboration about that. I suspect it's because you measure your ARR on a certain time, if that's kind of the question. Can you give a little bit about the math behind this, how the what you have taken overall? No, I mean, but yeah, it's a good question and it's a good observation. Remember we have a declining commission structure in that ranges from 9% to 5%. The less orders you have, you pay 9%. The more orders you have, you pay 5%. That will take up when you have a reduction in GMV and orders, that would actually take up the take rate of the MRR vis-a-vis GMV. That's one. In addition to our commission paid, we do sell marketing proposition as well, or marketing activities as well, which makes up a part of that difference between MRR and GMV. Yeah. That's the explanation. Very good explanation. There's a little bit of questions that if looking out in the landscape or maybe it just haven't shown up in people's. There's a little bit of a question here. Are you more exposed to maybe low quality restaurants? You know, someone who will be harder hit about those. If you understand the question. If you're looking at Just Eat and those, they are also starting to talk about it, but maybe not as dramatically as you are. Do you have a little bit of more swinging there because exposure to restaurants who will a little bit sooner get into problem but maybe also a little bit sooner just open up again? Yeah, I mean, our defined segment is what we call the QSR, so the independent takeaway restaurant, not the chain restaurants. I don't want to comment on the quality of food of our customers. It's of course a segment that may be more volatile than a chain restaurant. I think what was the question was- Yeah. I think that's a good question. It's not about the quality of the food. You are a little bit more hit by non-chain restaurants. You are focusing on the one little independent, and of course he doesn't have a capital base. He maybe don't know how to hire people when there's not abundance of it. I think that was a good answer. Yes, you acknowledge that that's the segment you are operating in. They might be a little bit more volatile. Well, having said that, we are of course conscious of the restaurants that we onboard in terms of not as much the quality of food, but more in general do they have a customer base and consumers that wants to buy their food? Yeah. Um, that- You have talked about that, the onboarding process. You are seeing whether could this actually be a profitable customer in the future. Yes if people are ordering, that might be a little bit of a seal of approval. Of course, in situations, smaller restaurants might not be able to move so much around as bigger. I think that's a good question. A very direct question, you know, the impact on the guidance of churn, you know. If you said that the restaurant partner, and I know there's a lot of math behind that. Is most of this guidance adjustment you have made actually for closed restaurants, net churn, or is it still a little bit of someone whose ordering has gone a little bit down because they can't deliver food? The people are asking, is it primarily, unfortunately, churned or closed restaurant, most of your guidance you have taken down? It's primarily on churns and closed down restaurants. The slowdown of ordering, I think we did anticipate that, as I said in the beginning of post-COVID, that there would be a slowdown. We do have restaurants. We did anticipate the closed down or the fall in the number of orders. Restaurants that have problems getting drivers to deliver but still have pickup, we actually see a drop of delivery there, of course. You also see in some parts of the U.K. estate that they have lower orders than we anticipated because they can't deliver. The biggest part is because of closed down. It's coming from the same source. There's a little bit of a question here on the restaurant side. In August you had 5,041, now you're guiding 5,000. Is it all losing it in the U.K.? People are questioning. Still growing? When you say on the ARR side, it's also on the restaurant side. You are seeing no hard development in Denmark, Germany, and Ireland. There everything is going as. All this lower restaurant partners is coming from the U.K. is the question here. Correct. I think there's also a question here, is it permanent, those churn, you know? Do you have a feeling, you know? I think maybe we have tried to ask it, but you know, let's round up with that one. Are you positive that some of those restaurants will be opened again with the same owner who has now found again new employees so he can deliver and actually you are easier to turn him on again, you know, because he already knows you and you did work with him. Do we have any feeling that that might be the case? It's a little bit looking into the crystal ball again. I mean, as I said, and I think we've said it in prior calls as well, shops close and shops open with a new owner. A change of ownership is part of our operations and what we do. Of course, the restaurants that drop out now is if they reopen, same owner or new owner, a potential win back later. Now, when and if that will happen for those, that would be crystal balling, that I would like to know but don't. I understand. I think we should end up. I know you have to leave us here at 10:30 A.M. The lower growth expectation, there's a question here: Are you also maybe looking inside your organization and saying, "Should we look a little bit vet our customers a little bit more? Should we try and go a little bit up in quality?" Is that one of the explanation also, so you don't have those harsh swings or actually use money on getting someone on who get closed? Are you maybe in the future, some of the lower growth rates, are they explained by maybe you looking inside and saying, "should we do it a little bit different and vet our customers a little bit more? We always do that, and I think that's what I mentioned earlier in terms of the core segment that we target, refining that and understanding from our data and external data sources of course as well, who has the most potential. That and that's a key part of our business. To directly answer that question, yes, we are looking internally as well on how to improve those parts as always. That could turn growth a little bit down on the short term. Maybe we can catch it here, and it's a bookkeeping question. The EBITDA that you guide, is that adjusted for the other external costs? Just to remind us. Yeah. I can comment on that. It is before other external or non-recurring costs, as we call them. It's an EBITDA before. Yeah. Perfect. Yeah, we get that in- That definition is in the half-year report, 2021. Yeah, we're consistent on that. Perfect. Yeah, but I think on that, I know you have to go on. Thank you for taking the questions, and thank you for a lot of questions from the audience. Have a nice weekend to all. Thank you. Thank you all. Thank you, Michael.
Loading workspace