Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AXA First Quarter 2024 Activity Indicators Call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star and one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press star and two. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Alban de Mailly Nesle. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you very much, and good morning to all of you, and thank you for joining the call today. So let me go through the key highlights of Q1 2024, and I think the sentence that said it all is that we have achieved a very good performance in this first quarter. We delivered strong organic growth across all our lines of business, P&C, life and savings, health, and asset management. And this is obviously very consistent with our new strategic plan, which we presented to you in February. So we are growing all our businesses, leveraging our attractive positioning, in particular in P&C commercial lines and employee benefits, and our growth initiatives are starting to contribute. Overall, our total revenues increased by 6% to EUR 34 billion. Our balance sheet remained very robust, with a Solvency II ratio at 229%, reflecting our strong capital generation capacity. We also continue our actions on climate. We have recently strengthened the AXA for Progress Index targets across underwriting, investment, and our own operations. Let me now go through the key numbers of the press release, starting with P&C. P&C revenues are up 7%, with growth both in commercial and personal lines. In commercial lines, excluding AXA XL, we grew by 7%, and this was driven by favorable price effects across all markets, as well as higher volumes, notably in Europe and at AXA XL. At AXA XL Insurance in particular, prices were up 3% on renewals, which is a similar growth as last year's, so pricing is holding well. Excluding North America professional lines, pricing, including exposure, is slightly above loss trend. As explained in February, there are different dynamics, and we are managing the cycle proactively. We see a continued hard market in short tail lines, notably North America property, up 15%, while pricing is moderating in long tail lines with +5% in casualty, but this remains above loss trends. In North America, professional lines, pricing remains soft, and we remain focused on profitability. In France and Europe, still in commercial lines, we continue to see favorable pricing at +4% and +3%, respectively. And we also continue to see good demand from corporates across SMEs, mid-market, and large risks, and this is driving growth in volumes. So we are well positioned to capture the structural growth in this market, including through our growth initiatives in white spaces, mid-markets, and new risks. In personal lines, revenues were up 6%, with growth both in motor and non-motor, up 3% and 9%, respectively. Pricing was very strong overall, at +10% across both motor and non-motor. In motor, pricing continues to accelerate across geographies, notably in France and Europe, except for Switzerland. And this was partly offset by lower volumes and a change in business mix in the U.K., where we did, for the reasons you know, a full portfolio review, and we further strengthened our risk selection in addition to significant pricing actions. Overall, in personal lines, both frequency and severity are in line with our expectations in the first quarter, and therefore, we are confident in our margin improvement plan, which is, as you know, an important part of our 200 bps, uh, target for the improvement of our combined ratio in the plan. Finally, in reinsurance, as you know, the right sizing of Property Cat lines were completed in 2023, and so in 1Q 2024, the revenues were up 9%, driven by both favorable price effects in property and casualty and higher volumes and specialty. One last point on, N at Cat and large losses. Group Nat Cat experience in the first quarter was below its prorated annual budget, but we maintain our annual Nat Cat budget of 4.5 points of combined ratio for the year. And as for the large losses, we expect the potential impact from the Baltimore Bridge to be non-material at group level, i.e., less than EUR 100 million before tax. Now moving to life and health. In life, premiums were up 6% with very strong growth in capital light GA savings with 19%, +19%, notably in Japan from strong sales of a single premium whole life products, and in Italy from the successful launch of a new product. We had also strong performance in unit linked, +8%, driven by successful commercial campaigns across our distribution network and mainly in Italy and in France. We also saw a positive trend in protection, up 3%, notably from higher sales in protection with unit linked in Japan and in Europe, mostly from Switzerland. And lastly, in line with our strategy, premiums in traditional GA savings were down 14%. In health, premiums increased by 7% to EUR 4.8 billion, primarily driven by favorable price effects, both in group and individual businesses across our main geographies. In the U.K., we continue to take pricing actions, which will be earned over time, but we are also, very importantly, rigorously implementing the claims pathways to triage claims in order to manage our claims cost. That's, as you know, a very important aspect of our plan to improve profitability in our U.K. health business. On the net flows, so we saw strong flows both in protections and health. That was particularly partly offset by continued outflows in traditional GA savings across most geographies in line with our strategy. In aggregate, our surrender ratio remains broadly stable versus full year 2023 and improved versus 1Q 2023. Moving on to new business, life and health, PVEP and NBV were up 14% and 6% respectively, and this was attributable to the favorable impact of lower interest rates and good volume growth, as I just mentioned. New business CSM was up by 1%, impacted by the model changes that we implemented in full year 2023. As you know, we update assumptions only at 1H and full year. At full year 2023, we updated assumptions in France, which had an unfavorable effect on the new business CSM. This effect impacts 1Q numbers, 1Q 2024 numbers, but not the 1Q 2023 that we reported. Therefore, the two periods are not directly comparable. NBV margin was down 0.4 point, and that reflects the unfavorable impact of lower interest rates and the effect of the model changes I've just mentioned. And overall, our business mix in life and health remains of high quality. One word on the in-force management. As you've seen, the German transaction will not go through. There's been a significant change in market condition since the deal was announced, and that has caused both parties, Athora, to reconsider their position. But we have taken advantage of higher interest rates to close the duration gap, and there is now more value to the book today for us. The fact that we have terminated the transaction will have no impact on the targets disclosed by the group as part of its new strategic plan, Unlock the Future. But you also saw that we announced today, or yesterday rather, that AXA Life Europe entered into a reinsurance agreement with New Re, a subsidiary of Munich Re Group, which will cover around EUR 3 billion of variable annuity reserves. This transaction is expected to result in a reduction of underlying earnings of around EUR 20 million per annum from 2024 onwards. But as you saw in the press release, this will be compensated underlying earnings per share wise by a EUR 200 million share buyback. Finally, in asset management, average assets under management increased by 2%, reflecting both favorable market effects and positive net flows. Net flows amounted to EUR 6 billion. We had strong inflows from third-party clients in both our core and our alt platforms, and more particularly in real estate, which reflects AXA IM's superior performance track record in this asset class. Revenues were up 3%, mainly driven by higher management fees due to an increase in average assets under management. Last word on Solvency II. So we continue to operate with a strong Solvency II ratio at 229% at the end of March, up 2 points versus full year 2023. So that comes from +7 points from normalized capital generation, -5 points of accrued foreseeable dividends and annual share buybacks, +1 point from sub-debt, reflecting the issuance of EUR 1.5 billion Restricted Tier 1 in January, but partly offset by the repurchase of around EUR 1.2 billion euros of sub-debt through a tender offer. As you know, we intend to maintain our stock of debt stable over the plan. - 3 points from expected regulatory changes, and + 2 points from financial markets, mainly higher equity markets. So we're happy with our strong Solvency II ratio that reflects our, capital efficient business model. To conclude, we are off to a very strong start this year, and that's very consistent with our plan. Therefore, we remain confident in our strategy. We are very focused on the execution and the delivery of the new strategic plan targets. That's all supported by the, attractive and highly diversified business model, which allows to deliver predictable earnings growth. I'm now happy to take your questions. Thank you, sir. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star and two. The first question comes from Will Hardcastle of UBS. Oh, hi. Thanks for let me take the first question. It's only one actually. It's to do with, if I look at the pricing, the premium, it looks like there's been volume reductions throughout the personal lines book, motor particularly. U.K. is enormous at a 50% price and 2% premium. You mentioned the mix shift there, Alban. I, I guess, is it- is there any way that we can get an indication of how much the U.K. motor volume has reduced? Because obviously we'd, we'd be looking in excess of 40%, but, but I assume that's not right. That'd be really helpful. Thank you. Thank you, Will, for your question. In fact, there are two things, or three, rather. Obviously, there's the very significant price increase that you saw, but there's also the fact that as we focus on the better risks, the average premium is also coming down, even though we increase the prices because we let go of the worst risks. And so, you have the very significant price increase, a reduction in the average premium and a bit of loss of volumes, but clearly not the 40% you mentioned. We're losing significantly less customers than that. Is that clearer? It is. I guess we're not going to get a sort of a 5%, 10%, 15% volume reduction, are we? Is that asking too much? That's a bit asking too much, yes. Thought it might. The next question is from Farooq Hanif of J.P. Morgan. Hi there. Thanks so much. I just wanted to ask a few questions. I'm sorry if it's more than two, but, can you talk about the cash impact on the new deal that you've done, with Munich Re on the VA book? So, I mean, obviously you're losing cash positive that you would have got from the German back book deal, although that would have been obviously offset by buyback. But what's the cash impact of the Re deal? Secondly, can you explain what the market conditions were that have made you happy to keep the book? I'm presuming it's interest rates. And what would it take for you to look again at this back book? So, you know, either to sell it or to reinsure it, what would it take for you to sort of strategically change your mind on that? And I just wanted to also ask about the commercial pricing momentum. So it feels like, you know, it's still kind of declining, even if you take out U.S. Professional lines, in terms of the kind of difference between pricing and loss cost trend. Would you kind of agree with that? And then, you know, what would you say is your kind of expectation for the rest of the year and also for 2025 in terms of the commercial pricing momentum to deliver your plan? Thank you very much. Thank you, Farooq. So the cash impact of the transaction on AXA Life Europe is that we'll be able to release EUR 250 million of capital that'll be freed up by this transaction. On the German transaction. So as you remember, the transaction was signed in 2022. Over 2022 and still in 2023, interest rates increased, and we had discussions with Athora. We both honestly wanted to do this transaction, but given higher interest rates, there is more value to the book, to us. As I also said, we managed to close the duration gap. So expectations on both sides didn't meet, and at the end of the day, it was better for everyone to call it a day and to say, well, we're not anymore on the same line, so let's decide to terminate. So we're fine with holding the book, but all our options are open. If somebody comes with a good price, we wanted to sell two years ago, we might sell if we have a good offer. But as I said, given higher interest rates, given the right ALM and closed duration gap, it's not an issue if we keep the book. And third, on the commercial line pricing at AXA XL. So it's quite similar to the end of last year in the sense that, yes, U.S. professional lines are soft. That's very clear, which means that we are focusing on profitability. We are focusing on our current book of business, and we have increased the retention of our books of business because obviously you have better profitability with your current customers, rather than looking for new customers in such a market. But for the rest, for all the lines, we see very good momentum. Bear in mind that, at AXA XL, there is obviously a bias to Europe in the first quarter, and the pricing momentum in Europe is good. And you saw it around 5%, to make it simple. But it's even better in the U.S., where you see property still up 15% like it was last year. But you also see some places in casualty also up significantly in the U.S. So that's why I said that overall, with that pricing dynamic, excluding North America professional lines, we are slightly above loss trend still. So what should we expect for 2025? I don't see why the market should change abruptly in 2025. We are coming to a place where prices increase with loss trend slightly above, could be in line. I don't see competitive pressure that would take the prices down or below loss trend at this stage. Then 2026, we'll see. You know that for the plan, our assumptions is that, are that we maintain our margins at AXA XL, playing with the various cycles of the various lines of business. Thank you very much. The next question is from Dominic O'Mahony of BNP Paribas Exane. Hello, thank you for taking questions. So just to clarify something else. I think you said, so it sounds like the margin recovery in personal lines is very much on track, and that XL financial lines pricing remains above loss cost trend. But should I infer from that, that including financial lines, pricing probably isn't ahead of loss cost trends? Is that a fair inference from what you're saying? And then I just wanted to invite your thoughts on trends in North America casualty. I mean, some of your North American peers seem to be adding to reserves for the more recent vintages, so 2020 onwards. Interested in your reflections on how experience is running through the XL book on those more recent vintages. Thanks. So on your first point on North America financial lines, it's true that profitability, which I sound like a broken record on that one, which was extremely high, is now good on financial lines, and that's what matters to us. And as I said, we will manage this, focusing on our customers rather than looking for a new business at any price. That's not our stance. So I separated it from the rest, because for us, this is a specific line with a specific dynamic. And exactly for your question on casualty, what matters to us is whether we are above loss trend in those other long tail lines, and we are. On the casualty reserves, so as you know, we review our reserves twice a year, before half year and before full year. We had seen the change in the trend, I think, earlier than our competitors. Really, what matters for reserve is changing trends. We have not seen over the last month, a change in trends on casualty. What I mean by that is we haven't seen an acceleration. Now, we will do the reserve review in Q2, and we'll be able to tell you more at half year. Very helpful. Thank you. The next question is from Andrew Crean of Autonomous. Good morning, everyone. Can I ask, I suppose three areas? One, could you go into a little bit more on detail on German Motor, as to what the severity and frequency trends are there, and how that's stacking up? Secondly, could you say, I know you said Nat Cats were below your pro rata rate, but if you baked in manmade or large losses in Baltimore Bridge, are you basically on trend in the first quarter? And then thirdly, could you talk a little bit about reinvestment rates? You've got quite a headwind, I think, on the sort of discounting amortization. But against that, there should be a decent pickup in the reinvestment rate on the portfolio. If you could talk a bit about that, that'd be great. Thanks. Thank you, Andrew. So on German Motor, I think we are in line with our expectations. So we increased prices by around 17%. And at the same time, we saw no additional drift in frequency. So the price increases that we have implemented allow to correct for the drift that we had last year, without additional drift this year. So we are in line with our expectations. And I mentioned frequency because that was the issue last year, but we have no issue on severity either. On Nat Cat and large losses, large losses, before we had the Baltimore Bridge claim, that was also a good quarter. And so Nat Cat plus large losses is also a good quarter. On the reinvestment rate, so obviously, it's a mix of many currencies, and notably, if we not forget, that we also invest in Japan and Switzerland. We invested at 3.8% overall over the first quarter, and obviously, it's a small positive compared to our expectations. But if I broaden that, I think the way I would characterize the first quarter is that we have a good number of small positives. Small positives on the reinvestment rate, notably on the dollar side, and therefore, on the discount rate. Small positives in the pricing on retail, which is slightly better than expectations. So it's only Q1, obviously, yeah? But nevertheless, I think, as I said, we're off to a good start, so thanks to all this. What was the reinvestment rating for the year 2023 against the 3.8%? It was around 4%, if I remember well. It's slightly lower for the first quarter, but the currency mix plays a role. And the other reason is that for specific reasons, we focused for the first quarter on liquid assets, and so we didn't get the additional premium from illiquid assets, but we'll get that later in the year. Thanks. The next question is from Andrew Sinclair of Bank of America. Thank you very much. First for me is just about a point of clarity on the Baltimore Bridge, less than EUR 100 million. Can you give us a little bit of color in terms of the industry loss expectations for that, and if that industry loss goes higher, are you capped out, or are there any other kind of nonlinear elements we should be aware of, for Baltimore Bridge losses? Second was just thanks for the commentary on the drop in contribution from new business CSM, and the color on that year-on-year. Just looking at, in particular in France, on the non-CSM, other new business value in France, that was a really big jump, up, up 41%, despite protection GWP actually being slightly down year-on-year in France. Really surprised me, but just keen to take a little bit of color on that big jump in that other new business value. And the third for me was just on XL Re. I think the first time exposure seems to have grown in a long time. Is this just specialty that you're interested in, or do you have some appetite for growth in any other reinsurance lines as well? Thank you very much. Well, thank you, Andrew. So on your first question on the Baltimore Bridge, so what we said about having a loss of less than EUR 100 million, it's based on the assumption that the industry loss is around $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion in total. That being said, if the loss was to creep up to, say, $2.5 billion or $3 billion, our estimate is that it would still be less than EUR 100 million for us because of the policy limits that we have. The only increase that we would get in our loss is the increase in the reinsurance reinstatement premium that we would have to pay. So it is, in any case, capped to a low level. On the new business value versus new business CSM at AXA Health, if I understood correctly your question, a good part of it comes from the health part, which is in the NBV, but not in the NBV CSM. And on the NBV part, we have significantly increased prices and therefore margins. And that's probably the main reason why we increased the NBV in France. There's also a bit in protection in volumes, but that's health, which is really the cause of the improvement. And on the AXA XL Re, I think what we don't want to increase significantly is P&C. We want to be cautious on casualty reinsurance in the U.S., because we want to make sure that pricing, local pricing reflects the profitability and the risks. But on other lines, we're happy to grow. Very helpful. Thank you very much. The next question is from Michael Huttner of Berenberg. Thank you so much. I'll be really quick because I compliment all my peers, the questions and the answers are fantastic. It's on health in France, in the U.K. Can you give an idea of the speed of the improvement? Will we see it already in H1 in terms of profits or H2? It sounds as if you've done a massive turnaround, but you know, there's always this lag. Thank you. Well, thank you, Michael. Look, it's a transformation. It's not as easy or as quick as the recovery in German Motor to, because, as you know, it's about pricing, but it's mostly about the change in the way we manage claims, the pathways, the use, so to speak, of GPs. And so you will see some improvement already in YH, but we will be back to normal profitability, as we said, early 2025, or by the end of this year. So that would be a progressive. And can you say how much it is, the swing factor, if you like, from, say, 2023- 2025? No, I mean, what we expect for the whole of 2025 is to get back to the profitability we used to have until 2022. EUR 100 million, maybe EUR 200 million? Sorry, I'm pushing, but you're so generous today. I thought I'd try my luck. Look, it's, let's say between around EUR 150 million. Wow. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you, Alban. The next question comes from Peter Eliot of Kepler Cheuvreux. Thank you very much. A couple of follow-ups, please, from me first. Firstly, just going back on the German deal, just one, sorry, trying to put a little bit more... Just one, are there any financial implications of the cancellation of that deal? And secondly, I appreciate the economics are now much better than they were a couple of years ago. Should we assume that the main change really is in the risk profile of the business, or, you know, are the earnings looking a little bit better as well? Then also a follow-up on U.K. health, if I may. I appreciate, Alban, as you said just now, you know, it's not all about pricing. But if I do look at, pricing and, I mean, premiums were up 5% for, for Health Europe. And I, it doesn't sound like, you know, you had outflows from the U.K. So I just, it doesn't look like the pricing has been that strong, but I'm just wondering if I'm, if I'm missing something there. And, and finally, sorry, it's a little bit off topic, but just given your update on the ADC at the, the full-year results, would you be able to remind us how much income you're currently giving away to Enstar and, and what your options are on that? Thank you very much. Sorry, I was writing down your question. And thank you, Peter. So on the German deal, the financial implications are simply, I mean, compared to today, nothing. I mean, we keep the earnings, which are a bit more than EUR 30 million, and we don't do the share buyback that we would have done, and we don't get the cash, which was roughly EUR 400 million. So net, we would have gotten EUR 200 million net cash that we're not getting. That's the difference. But we keep the EUR 34 million-- EUR 30 million, EUR 35 million earnings from the book. It's again, it's duration match, it's okay. But if we were, if we had decided to sell it, that's because it's not fully in line with the nature of the life books that we want to have. So we were happy to sell it for that reason. It's obviously in better shape now than two years ago, thanks to higher interest rates. But as I said, if we find a good offer, we could sell it. On the U.K. health pricing, you will see in H1 that we will have increased prices further because we've done another set of price increases in April. On the ADC, I don't have the numbers with me. Ah, the team is telling me, what is it? EUR 20 million what? EUR 20 million per annum on the ADC. Thank you, and- Great, thank you very much. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from William Hawkins of KBW. Morning, everyone. Thank you very much. What is the movement in the SCR that contributes to the seven points of operating solvency change in the first quarter, please? And then, can you just remind me, to the extent that you emphasized, that it was a normalized capital generation figure, is it boosted by the light Nat Cats that you referred to or not? And then secondly, please, when you were making reference to maintaining the stock of debt through the plan in the context of what you've just done in the first quarter, can you just remind me what your specific intentions are with regards to the grandfathered RT1s? Are you intending over the next couple of years to replace it? Because obviously you can't replace it with allowable Tier 2. Or are you assuming that your solvency ratio is so high that it doesn't matter if you allow for some deleveraging, with the grandfathered debt drifting down? Thank you. Thank you. So on the SCR, within the +7 points, there is a -1 point from the impact of the business growth on our SCR. And there was no particular boost from Nat Cat. Nat Cat was, as we said, a bit below the appropriate number, but that didn't have a meaningful impact overall. On our stock of debt, so we plan to maintain our stock of debt absent M&A. I would- that was that was clear in February. We plan to manage proactively our stock of grandfathered debt, but it doesn't mean that we will replace one for one Tier 1 and Tier 2 by Tier 1 and Tier 2. We might use also some senior debt to keep the level of cash that we have and overall our gearing ratio, and that might have a slightly negative impact on our solvency, but we are talking potentially a couple of points. Thank you. We have no further questions. I will hand it back to Mr. Alban de Mailly Nesle for any closing statements. So thank you very much for joining this morning. As I said at the beginning, we are very happy with our numbers. Obviously, a bit disappointed with the German transaction, but on one hand, it's in good place now. We are open to other options, and we are very happy with the transaction that we've done with Munich Re on AXA Life Europe. So we're overall happy with our Q1. Thank you very, very much, and I'll see you at the latest in August for half year. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.