Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Verallia 2026 Q3 results analyst call. The call will be structured in two parts. First, a presentation by the Verallia Group management team, represented by Patrice Lucas, CEO, and Cristina Riesgo, CFO. Afterwards, there will be a Q&A session. During this session, you may ask questions in two ways, by submitting a written question in the box below the player or by joining the conference call and dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. I will now hand over to the management team. Please go ahead. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us, and welcome to our call for Q3 2026 financial results. As usual, we will go through our presentation and then we will have and we will take time for the Q&A session. After a quick introduction, we will go directly to our numbers with Cristina, and then I will come back on our outlook for 2026. As an introduction, just to remind you that Verallia is the global leader in glass packaging. We are the number 1 in Europe, number 2 in Latin America, and number 3 worldwide. On this chart, you have our ID card. You have on the left the 2025 split of our sales by segment. As you know, one of our strong assets is our customer base and the diversified and balanced end markets in which we operate. We operate in 12 countries with 34 glass plants and 63 furnaces. We do serve about 11,000 customers and produce around 18 billion bottles and jars per year. Please note also that we are running 19 cullet recycling centers, allowing us to control about 50% of our needs for external cullet. Before moving to our numbers, I would like to share with you the strategic partnership we signed with Moët Hennessy a few weeks ago. This partnership is focused on innovation for next-generation glass packaging. It is about customer intimacy, innovation, and decarbonization. It is customer intimacy with a long-term R&D partnership with one of our most iconic premium customers, combining customer expertise and industrial know-how. It is innovation with the objective to develop new glass generation glass packaging, targeting a 30%-50% weight reduction while maintaining strength and performance. Finally, it is about decarbonization because reducing weight is one of the levers to pursue industry CO2 emission reduction. This is the beginning of a journey of innovation to prepare the future of glass. Now about our financial numbers. Our profitability is in line with H1, despite the lower activity during the summer and despite the pressure on our costs with the current inflationary situation. Q3 revenue is down by -2.1% year-over-year to EUR 829 million, with an organic growth at -3.1% year-over-year, which is giving a 9-month revenue down by -1.6% year-over-year to EUR 2,527,000,000, with an organic growth of -1.7% year-over-year. About the adjusted EBITDA, Q3 is EUR 172 million, -4.8% versus Q3 last year, with a margin of 20.8%, -59 bps versus Q2 last year, which is giving a nine-month adjusted EBITDA at EUR 523 million, -1.5% versus last year, with a margin at 20.7%, similar to last year, just +3 bps. About the net debt, we are pursuing our leverage trajectory reduction. At the end of September, we are now at 2.5, compared to 2.6 in June and 2.7 in December. Now I let the floor to Cristina for more details. Thank you, Patrice. Let me start with the third quarter revenue bridge. As a reminder, we present these bridges excluding Argentina, given the hyperinflation and currency distortions that we see. You will see Argentina as a separate pillar in all the pages. We are sorry. I think we got a technical issue. I propose that Cristina is restarting- With Q3. With Q3, yes. Let's restart. As I mentioned, in the third quarter, revenue was EUR 829 million, down 2.1% reported or -3.1% organic. The decline is a volume story. Volumes cost us EUR 25 million, and this was concentrated in July and August after a stable first half. In Europe, this reflects the lower German beer volumes, fully in line with our industrial footprint and a slow summer in France and Iberia, especially in wines. Italy, on the other hand, kept a solid momentum helped by the ramp-up of the new Pescia furnace. In Latin America, volumes were up, led by beer, mainly in Brazil, and wine activity in Chile and Argentina improved materially after the decline we saw in the first half. I would point out that trends improved towards the end of the quarter, with September actually close to last year. The key point on this slide is price mix. That is a negative EUR 6.8 million. That is less than 1% of revenue, in line with the -EUR 7.7 million of Q2, which confirms that prices have stabilized year-on-year. The price effect has gradually faded over the year and was very limited in Q3. Currency added EUR 4 million, mostly the Brazilian reais, and there was no scope effect, and Argentina added EUR 10 million. Moving to the nine-month bridge. It's essentially the first half and the third quarter added together. The price effect sits mostly in Q1, and the volume effect almost entirely in Q3, as we just saw. Revenue for the nine months was EUR 2,527 million, down 1.6% reported and -1.7% organic. Volumes cost us EUR 27 million. EUR 25 of that came in the third quarter, and in the first half, volumes were down only marginally. Excluding expected decline in Germany, volumes remain slightly up over nine months with spirits, food, beers, and beer up and the decline, as we mentioned in Q3, mainly in wines. In Latin America, volumes were broadly stable, with improving trends in Argentina and Chile in Q3. Price mix was a negative EUR 30 million. That is negative overall, but it has eased materially. Around -EUR 16 million in the first quarter, less than EUR 8 million in each of Q2 and Q3. Currency added EUR 7.5 million, mostly the Brazilian real, and Argentina added EUR 8.5 million. Over the nine months, the revenue decline reflects the price adjustment at the start of the year and the expected lower German volumes. Turning to profitability, let's look at the third quarter EBITDA bridge. Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was EUR 172 million, with a margin of 20.8% versus 21.3% a year ago. That is down 59 basis points year-on-year. I would point out that it is in line with the 20.7% of the first half. There are two negatives and then our self-help. Activity was negative by EUR 25 million, and that reflects the lower sales volumes and our prioritization of cash generation with a more marked decrease in finished goods inventories in Q3 than last year. As a reminder, since Q2, the activity pillar shows only the impact of sales and inventory on margin. The fixed cost of our new furnaces sit in other. The spread between prices and costs was negative by EUR 60 million. A slightly negative price effect and still an unfavorable mix. Cost inflation itself was neutral. Thanks to our hedging, our energy costs were lower despite higher spot prices, and that offset the increase in other cost items like oil prices, mainly in freight and packaging. Against those two headwinds, our Performance Improvement Plan delivered EUR 11 million, a 2.2% reduction in net cash production costs. The other line added EUR 21 million, and that includes around EUR 10 million of savings from our footprint optimization plan, up from what we reported, EUR 8 million in Q2, and exactly as we worked down. Currency added around EUR 2 million, mostly the Brazilian reais, and Argentina was -EUR 1.3 million. The message again for the quarter is that self-help productivity, plus the restructuring savings, absorbed most of the volume and the price pressure and kept our margin in line with the first half. Now, looking at the nine-month consolidated adjusted EBITDA. Despite lower revenue, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 523 million, down only 1.5%, and the margin was stable at 20.7%, up three basis points. How do we protect our profitability? Again, activity was negative by EUR 26 million, and that is almost entirely the third quarter. In the first half, activity was broadly flat together with sales volumes. The spread was -EUR 36 million on lower selling prices, mainly in Q1, and the negative mix. On cost, we had a slight deflation, and it came from the first quarter. As I was mentioning, the expensive 2022 energy hedges rolled off. Then the offset. Similar to Q3, our Performance Improvement Plan delivered EUR 35 million year to date, again, a 2.2% net reduction in cash production costs, and other added EUR 18 million. In the first half, it was slightly negative as the first restructuring savings were offset by the ramp-up cost of the new furnaces in Pescia, Campobasso, and Zaragoza Hybrid. In the third quarter, with the savings building up, it turned clearly positive. Currency was a favorable almost EUR 4 million, and Argentina was -EUR 2.9 million. Over the nine months, net productivity and our restructuring actions kept our adjusted EBITDA broadly stable and the margin flat on a year-on-year, despite a difficult summer. Our continued cash generation flows through to the balance sheet, as you can see on the page. Net debt came down to EUR 1,736 million at the end of September. That includes EUR 62 million of lease liabilities. That compares to EUR 1,779 million at the end of June and EUR 1,861 million at the end of last year. Leverage improved again, as Patrice was mentioning at the beginning, to 2.5 times our last 12 months adjusted EBITDA from 2.6 in June and 2.7 at the end of December. I would note that we actually achieved this despite having a last 12 months EBITDA of EUR 684 million, which is slightly lower than December. It reflects clearly our new focus on strong cash generation, combined with a cash outflow of just EUR 11 million for the dividend that we paid out of the 2025 earnings. We continue to deliver on our deleveraging trajectory. Finally, the financing structure and liquidity. Total borrowings were EUR 2,224 million against EUR 488 million of cash, giving the EUR 1,736 million of net debt. Our debt is well spread across our sustainability-linked bonds and our conventional bonds, with maturities out to 2033. On top of that, we have the Term Loan B, our commercial paper program, and two undrawn revolving facilities. A significant part of our floating rate exposure is hedged through interest rate caps, so we are well protected on rates. Finally, total available liquidity was EUR 1,048 million at the end of September, up from EUR 976 million at the end of June, and we have no significant debt maturity before 2028. We are in a very comfortable position on liquidity and the maturity profile. With that, I'll hand back to Patrice for the outlook. Okay. Thanks, Cristina. At the end of September, what we could say is that we are on track to deliver our guidance despite a much more difficult context since Q2 with this inflationary environment. Within this context, the company is demonstrating its resilience. The good execution of our footprint adaptation in just few months is now supporting our performance. Therefore, we remain confident to meet 2026 guidance, and this is why we confirm our guidance for full year 2026, and aim to generate an adjusted EBITDA of around EUR 700 million and a free cash flow of around EUR 220 million, excluding the restructuring cash-out plan in relation to our footprint optimization. With our footprint optimization, our industrial adaptation plan being completed, we remain focused on strengthening our competitiveness, cash generation, and de-leveraging by, one, delivering enhanced PAP savings, and two, keeping CapEx under strict control around 8% of sales. Thanks a lot for your attention, and I think it's now time to answer your questions. If you wish to ask a question, you may do so by submitting a written question in the box below the player, or by joining the conference call and dial # key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial # key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Emmanuel Chevalier from CIC CIB. Please go ahead. Yes. Hello, do you hear me? Yes. Perfect, Emmanuel. Yes. Hello. Thank you for taking my question. I got two, please. The first one, the strong decrease in finished goods inventory in Q3. What can we expect for Q4? The second one is different. There has been further furnace closures in Europe recently. We saw last night that O-I had issued a profit warning. What can you tell us about the changes in the competitive environment, please? Thank you. Okay. First question, about the strong decrease in Q3, inventory decrease or inventory valuation in Q3. You are right, Emmanuel, so it has a significant impact in our Q3 results, and it was, I would say, a specific topic to Q3. With some wishes to control our inventory level and focus on cash generation, as it has been said by Cristina. This will not be the situation in Q4. When you are moving from Q3 to Q4, we do not expect this impact. Two, about the furnace closure in Europe. You are right, and you know that since the end of 2023, the industry has been closing a significant capacity amount. Last figure I have is that we should be now around 24 furnaces with the latest announcement of Ardagh. To be followed up, as a reminder, we have done our job with the closure of Essen. Keep in mind that in a short period of time, finally Essen in Germany, sorry. Keep in mind that in a short period of time, in Germany, Northwestern Europe, we moved from 10 furnaces to 6 furnaces, so significant reduction. We have done our part of the job, plus what we did in U.K. and in France, not rebuilding a furnace in Cognac. What we do see as a market environment is that we do see that over time, the overcapacity which is active since 2023 is reducing and which is, I would say, a good news for the better use of overall capacity in store in Europe. Today, when I am looking France, Italy, Iberia, Southwest Europe, we are close to be balanced between demand and capacity. The overcapacity we see in the scene for 2 years to 3 years is much more located in Northwestern Europe, in Germany, with especially the opening of Sino. But hope I have answered your question, Emmanuel. Yeah. Thank you. Very clear. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial # key 5 on your telephone keypad. There are no more oral questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for the written questions. All right. Well, thanks a lot. David Placet, I am the Head of IR. We indeed have a few written questions, which I will share with you now. Well, the first one, I think, from Piet Lagerwerf from GWS, has, I think, mostly been addressed by Patrice, but I will still repeat it and see whether you wish to add anything. It is, how would you describe the current capacity situation in Europe? Are there further closures needed to balance it? So that is market-wide. Okay. So back on that. The overcapacity is reducing since 2023. The capacity is reducing since 2023 with many closures. That is what I have just said. Some are still to come, in my view, according to what I am reading. We do believe that we have done our job, again, focusing on big impact in Northwestern Europe for us, with Germany moving from 10 to 6. But certainly maybe more to come. We will see. Which is going to push quicker the balance between capacity and demand. All right. Thanks, Patrice. Another one from Emmanuel Cuche. Can you please update us on your energy hedging coverage percentage for the remaining of 2026, and then for 2027 and 2028? We have a clear hedging strategy, clear hedging policy, which is to be at 80% year +1, 40% year +2, and 20% year +3 for Europe. First of all, just want to mention that for 2026, no impact on the non-hedged to come, as we are fully covered, I would say, 95%, 6%, and above. So no significant or material impact to come. For 2027, we are broadly in line with our policy. Still some position to be taken, being cautious with obviously the current forward we see. But we are broadly covered for 2027 and fully aligned with our policy for 2028 and 2029, with good positions compared to obviously the current spot price. This is where we stand. Fantastic. Thanks, Patrice. Another question that came from Piet Lagerwerf. I think one related to energy hedging, so you just answered that. Another question was how do you expect energy impacting profitability in 2027? But I guess that's been shared as much as we can there. And one more question is, do you expect EBITDA adjustments to come down in 2027? I assume that refers to the restructuring charges. I don't think we expect any more of these next year. Moving on to a question from Francisco Ruiz with BNP Paribas. How sustainable do you expect the weakness in volume seen during Q3 to be? Do you expect further restructuring measures should be executed? And then a reference to the O-I print, and I'm quoting Paco, "The print was significantly below expectations. Do you think this could add pressure for price increases next year?" So many questions there. First one, about the volume sustainability. It is clear that summer has been lower than what were below our expectation, especially July and August. In September, we were back much more in line with H1 trends. It was, I would say, much more specific compared to our forecast or view in July and August. And October so far is much more in line with what we saw in September, so much more aligned with what we had in H1. But obviously, we are monitoring that and adapting as per customer orders and customer forecasts. But basically, and for next year, we do not expect big volume increase, but much more in line and something which is going to be a zero plus compared to what we had in 2026. We want to be very cautious on that. About the restructuring. Again, we have done quite significant with positive impact this year, and I would like to mention that we have done that in a quite short period of time without any disruption being add-on cost, being problem with customer delivery service. I think it has been well managed in a short period of time, and we are taking the benefit in H2 and obviously full-year impact next year. At this stage, no more to come, but restructuring is part of a life of a company where we need to keep on trying to optimize processes, resources, and all of that. If at a point of time we have plans and we need to do because of a market environment or whatsoever, obviously this company will be ready to do so. But again, we have done a quite significant move this year, and according to what we see in front of us, a big part is done. Thank you, Patrice. Written questions keep flowing, so please bear with us. One is from Jaime Ramiro from GVC Gaesco. Can you please give us more color on pricing for next year? Considering the current gas prices, do you see Verallia and sector, sorry, with strength to increase them? And there was another question from Iñigo Egusquiza from Kepler, which is about the same. Can we expect price hikes of 2027 in the context of the current energy prices? And have you started negotiations with customers? Okay. This is a key question, obviously. Too early to be definitive because we are entering in this process, but what I can share with you, and I think it's not a surprise, is that you all know that we are, as we speak, in an inflationary situation, which is obviously calling for price increase. This is the intent, and obviously it will depend on market condition and environment. But there is a need and a willingness to recover the inflation situation from energy on gas and electricity and what is coming, all the items which are oil related, packaging, plastic, and logistic. Too early to comment on that, but for sure, the inflationary situation, environment, is pushing for price increase. We are entering in these negotiations. Okay. Thank you, Patrice. One from Senthil Sekar from Globe. Could you please discuss the demand environment in LATAM and how the competitive landscape is evolving? Are you seeing any pricing development changes in competitive intensity or industry capacity? Well, in Latin America, the context is a little bit different than in France. Pricing evolution, as we are an inflation country, we have much more regular price increase, regular negotiation. Obviously, Argentina is obvious, but Chile as well, and in Brazil, it's about the same. So we have the opportunity to come up an update of pricing much more aligned with the cost of factors. This is what we see. In terms of capacity, we see something which is balanced. And in terms of market, we see Brazil, which has been very robust in terms of growth since the beginning of the year. Good news for us coming from Latin America. Thanks, Patrice. Another one from Iñigo Egusquiza with Kepler. "Don't you think that maintaining the EBITDA guidance sounds a bit optimistic? This means an EBITDA of over EUR 175 million versus the EUR 160 million achieved in Q4 2025. Could you explain this improvement? Yeah, I'll take it. For Q4, the starting point is EUR 161 million that we generated last year. Our outlook for this year does not assume any recovery in volumes or any further price decline. What moves are mostly drivers that we control. First, we have the footprint savings that deliver EUR 10 million a quarter, as we saw over the first 9 months, and those were not in Q4 2025. Second, we have our performance action plans that also deliver more or less about EUR 10 million every quarter. Third, we have an easier price comparison. In Q4 last year, prices were still coming down, while this year they have been stable year-on-year since Q2. Then lastly, we also benefit from the indirect cost compensation on electricity CO2, that we have been very cautious up to now this year, since we were still waiting for the official confirmation from the authorities, and we'll book it in Q4 for the year for Iberia and for Germany. Finally, on activity, we actually expect inventory variation to weigh on EBITDA less than it did in Q3. Because we normally traditionally rebuild inventories in Q4. We will keep it very tight in control because our priority is to generate cash. But what we are going to do is produce to demand. Fantastic. Thank you, Cristina. I think we've now 2 last questions. I'll probably raise them together because they more or less relate, I think, to the same topic. One question from Senan Kiran from Muzinich: "Can you please share your thoughts about returning to investment grade?" Another one, from Piet Lagerwerf again, is: "Where do you expect leverage to trend over the next quarters? And at which levels would you pay a full cash dividend for 2027?" So basically, leverage, investment grade, and dividend. Look, I'll expand on this one. Leverage is down to 2.5, as I mentioned earlier. We are down from 2.6 in June and 2.7 in December. Net debt is EUR 184 million lower than a year ago. Returning to investment grade is clearly a goal that we want to pursue, and deleveraging is clearly a priority, as you saw with the decisions that we took this last quarter. Our financial trajectory, it's supporting this. Free cash flow, deleveraging, and a strong liquidity profile, together with the right working capital allocation choices, such as a scrip dividend, is driving our decisions. We keep a very regular and open dialogue with the agencies. As you saw, Moody's has just published a report leaving our rating and outlook unchanged. But in the end, rating decisions and their timing, it's in the agency's hands. We just need to ensure that we deliver on our deleveraging. We will not reverse engineer the ratings model, and so I cannot speculate on a date on a leverage level. Our priority is to keep the trend, and we'll announce a bit more on the Capital Markets Day and the outlook for the long to medium term. Fantastic. Thank you, Cristina. Thank you, Patrice. I think we're done with the written questions. The next question comes from Jean-François Granjon from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead. Yes, good morning. Just one more question from my side. I will come back on the spread price mix effect. We saw an acceleration of the decrease for the Q3 with -16 versus 36 in EUR for the first 9 months. We see a degradation for the price mixed spread effect. Can you explain why, and what do you expect for the Q3? You made some comment about the price increase with your current negotiations. Do you expect a lower impact for this spread effect next year? Thank you. Well, for next year, Jean-François, we cannot speak about it at this time, and only in February when we will present our full year result with a good view of all the negotiation and market environment. We will be back to you guys at that time. Before letting the floor to Cristina, maybe for much more details, keep in mind that when you are seeing that in Q3, it is accelerating, the spread. Keep in mind that in Q1, we were slightly positive or zero plus. In Q2, we are at -21. And in Q3, we are at -16 million EUR. There is no acceleration compared to Q2. What is clear is that you see that we started the year before the Middle East situation with a spread which was close to be zero, I would say, for full year. Obviously, job being done on the selling price side and with a good position on the cost of factors. Since that, and starting in Q2 and in, let us say, in April, obviously, we got compared to our estimates, the degradation in terms of everything which was the non-hedged part of our energy, one, and two, everything which is Brent related cost. Obviously, it does weight on Q2 and in Q3 as well, a little bit less. Hope it is clear for you, Jean-François. Okay, absolutely. Okay. Thank you. The next question comes from Manuel Lorente from Santander. Please go ahead. Yes. Hello. Good morning. Just a follow-up on Q4 trends and the guidance confirmation for the full year. I think that Cristina did a pretty good job in order to build up the bridge in terms of profitability year-on-year, assuming a footprint, PIP, and CO2 savings, plus a little bit more benign pricing background, if I understand properly. However, if you look instead of what happened 12 months ago, what just had happened, and you address the issue on a quarter-on-quarter basis, things complete are a little bit more complex because if you look to the history, historically, your top line in Q4 versus Q3 is roughly 6%-8% lower. So you will have roughly EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million less of top line revenues. Assuming that in Q3, you already have the savings from footprint, the savings from PIP, and that is already consolidating in the number that you presented in Q3. It is not going to be a delta improvement in Q4. Probably my question is, why in a scenario of EUR 50 million-EUR 60 million less revenues in Q4 and the consolidation of those savings already in Q3 numbers and no further delta versus Q4, are you going to achieve a higher profitability than in Q3? Thank you. Thanks a lot. This is a very good and fair point. Cristina said it, we had significant destocking effect in our numbers in Q3. I think you have well understood the bridge compared to last year. I think it is quite clear, and we have the levers which have been described by Cristina. When you move from Q3 to Q4, destocking has a significant impact in the activity. If you look at the bridge between revenue and EBITDA, you see that the variation of the revenue is close to 100% in the EBITDA due to this variation of destocking, which will not be the case in Q4. This is one of the key explanation. Plus ICC, so the indirect cost compensation mechanism, which has been officialized and that will take us fully in Q4 for the full year. Because we are very cautious now waiting for the confirmation of that. The good news of that is going to be recurrent for the next year, especially in Germany and Iberia. So this is why we see this, and this is why we are so confident to meet our guidance- Great as it has been described. Great. Just a follow-up. What we should expect from the Capital Markets Day? Some of your competitors have, let's say, withdrawn the guidance expectations for next year in the current, let's say, choppy backdrop. I believe that last time I asked about this issue, you mentioned that we should expect both qualitative and quantitative, let's say, mid-target aspects. Can you elaborate a little bit about what you can elaborate on this time- Yeah, sure. regarding Capital Markets Day? Thanks a lot to speak about it. First of all, yes, we are going to have a rendezvous in more than two weeks from now, on November 18. This is going to be the opportunity for us to share a little bit more of how do we see the business, how do we see the segment evolutions. We will be back to some items, and especially we will discuss and we will, sorry, we will present our midterm view of our business for 2029. We are planning to give a midterm guidance for 2029, three years from now. What is going to take place in 2027, obviously it has impact, but it is another topic. What we want to propose is something which is a midterm objective to give a much more long-term view, midterm, long-term view, rather than just focusing on next year. Okay, great. Thank you. See you in a couple of weeks then. Thank you. We have no more questions? There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing remarks. Thanks a lot for your attendance, and thanks a lot for all the fair questions you put on the table. Let's meet now in more than two weeks, where we will have the opportunity to project ourselves at the midterm horizon. Thanks a lot, and have a good day.
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