Good morning, and welcome to Bellway's full year results. We have a number of things to talk about this morning, not least current trading and outlook. First, I would like to mention a few highlights from FY 2022. Housing completions grew by 10% to a record 11,200 homes. Underlying PBT rose by 22% to GBP 650 million. Dividend per share increased by 19% to 140%. Importantly, we have a land bank now approaching some 100,000 plots which provides flexibility for the years ahead. Our strong results demonstrate the progress that we're making against our key components of our strategy. Namely, volume growth, value creation and Better with Bellway, our long-term commitment to run the business in a responsible and sustainable way. Both of these subjects are covered in more detail later in the presentation. Now, as we navigate through a period of uncertainty, it's worth looking at Bellway's shape and resilience. Our early reinvestment into the land market in the summer of 2020 enables us to open 120 new outlets in FY 2023 and increases the overall number of outlets in the second half of our financial year. Our WIP investment is focused on cash collection and notably, our construction programs are biased towards social housing completions. We have a strong order book of over GBP 2 billion and a resilient balance sheet with substantial net cash. We have an experienced senior operational team, some of whom are here today, with a proven track record on delivery and working in challenging environments. While we move through a turbulent period, our long-term model is our strength. We already have the platform to deliver above sector volume growth, but also retain the flexibility to respond to short-term changes in the market. If I could close on a positive note. There remains underlying demand for new homes. Politically, whilst I would prefer more stability, as I'm sure you do too, there is cross-party support for new housing, which is very encouraging if you was to look beyond the near term. Now for Keith with our financial results. Yep. Thanks, Jason. Good morning, everybody. I'll start with the financial performance for the year just gone, which was strong, with an underlying operating margin of 18.5% and, as Jason has already said, a 22% increase in underlying PBT to GBP 650 million. Housing revenue increased by over 13% to GBP 3.5 billion, which is a new record for the group, driven principally by volume growth. In line with the plans we set out this time last year, the number of homes sold rose by over 10% to a record of almost 11,200. This has been driven by a 16% increase in the number of private completions, which has more than offset the reduction in the number of social homes. That strong growth on the private line also meant that the overall average selling price was higher than previously expected at GBP 314,000. In the year ahead, construction programs are much more weighted towards social housing, and this will help to underpin total volume output in a slower market. It will also mean that the overall average selling price is likely to moderate, particularly in the second half of FY 2023, with a full year outturn likely to be around GBP 300,000. The market has been strong across the U.K., with demand most pronounced for good quality family housing. We used Ashberry in over 8% of completions, where demand and site layout support more than one selling outlet. Its use accelerates return on capital on larger sites, but it also helps act as a mitigant to weaker market conditions. Under 8% of homes were sold in London, which is where the usage of Help to Buy was most pronounced. Our average selling price in London is relatively affordable at under GBP 390,000, with investment still focused on the outskirts. Mix changes driven by our land buying criteria in recent years mean that both volume and selling price are likely to fall in London in FY 2023, and this will help to provide some protection as Help to Buy draws to a close. The underlying operating profit was GBP 653 million, an increase of 23% compared to the prior year, driven mainly by the extra volume and improvements in the underlying gross margin. That gross margin of 22.3% is still slightly below our usual land intake margin of around 23%, and that's mainly because there are still some legacy costs sitting in within site valuations in relation to COVID site extensions. In relation to the administrative overhead, expenditure in FY 2023 will be tightly controlled but considered in order to ensure the long-term health of the business. I currently expect the cost base to exceed GBP 150 million, and there are a number of reasons for that increase. Firstly, upward pressure in relation to employee-related costs, including salaries, pension contributions, and incentive schemes. This will ensure we remain an attractive employer in a labor market which is still very competitive. Secondly, there will be no new offices, but there will be necessary, yet restrained investment in divisional teams to support outlet openings and secure our longer-term growth ambition. The increased overhead will also include the cost of running our new building safety division and general cost inflation across most headings. The range of outcomes in relation to the operating margin for FY 2023 is more uncertain than usual. Assuming current prices and volume output similar to last year, I expect that we will achieve a full year underlying operating margin of over 18%. Our share of profit from joint venture completions rose to GBP 9 million. As I've mentioned in prior presentations, I do expect a small loss, perhaps GBP 1 million or so in FY 2023, and this reflects lower volume, but also upfront financing costs on a longer-term scheme. It's worth noting that the underlying interest cost will increase next year because of higher interest rates. Mainly this relates to the unwinding of the discount on land creditors. Roughly speaking, based on current interest rates, this will be an extra GBP 5 million, but it could be more if there are further rate rises. Also, as of Friday, the full year effect of the Residential Property Developer Tax, together with the planned rise in corporation tax, means that our standard effective tax rate in FY 2023 will increase to around 25%, which is a slight amendment to the printed booklets that you have in front of you. It will then rise again to around 29% in FY 2024. In line with previous guidance, we've set aside an additional GBP 327 million in the second half of the financial year as a result of entering into the Building Safety Pledge and the Welsh Pact. Included in this amount, the net charge for the full year was GBP 346 million. The total amount that we've set aside since 2017 is over half a billion pounds, and the GBP 442 million of that which remains on the balance sheet at the year-end relates to apartments in England, Scotland, and Wales. In very simple terms, the remaining provision includes two broad categories. Firstly, known and likely issues where we have a surveyed cost estimate, and secondly, possible issues where we do not have a surveyed cost estimate. This second group includes an allowance for as yet undiscovered problems. This is where we've had no contact from freeholders, but where probability leads us to reasonably expect that we will incur a cost, particularly bearing in mind the requirement of the pledge to make good defects as far back as 1992. There are clearly judgments and estimates in each of these broad categories, not least because of the uncertainties around the final detail of the government contract, the interpretation and interplay between PAS and the EWS1 regime, the inflationary cost environment, and the exact timing of cash flows. To try to give you some clarity with regards to our approach. Where we do have a surveyed cost estimate, we have used those as the basis of our provision. Where we do not have a surveyed cost estimate, we've used our experience to date to reasonably assess both the cost and the likely scope of remediation. We've also included an estimate of future cost inflation using forward-looking build cost indices to help inform our judgments. Given the vast complexities in resolving issues, it could take many years to spend the entire provision. Nonetheless, even if we assume a vast acceleration in the pace of remediation, the monetary outflow is supported by our cash generative business, and it is digestible in the context of our GBP 3.4 billion asset-backed balance sheet. A technical accounting point. Accounting standards require us to discount the provision to a present value. This means that you will see an unwinding of this discount as an adjusting finance charge in the years ahead. In the first half of FY 2023, this will likely be around GBP 3 million. The cost in the second half will depend on the movement in gilt rates, which you will forgive me if I don't predict. We continue to pursue further recoveries from third parties where they've fallen short of the standards required, and we will recognize these going forward in line with normal accounting criteria. The 30-year timeframe of the pledge is, however, directed towards house builders and not the supply chain. That means the scope for upside beyond the GBP 30 million we've already recovered since 2017 is limited. Lastly, our building safety division is now established under the leadership of a new managing director, and we will invest in additional resource as new projects require them, so as not to detract from operations elsewhere in the business. I cannot guarantee that the goalposts will not change again, but at Bellway, our approach is prudent, it's considered, and it uses the learnings we've gained from the responsible actions we have taken to date. The balance sheet is included for reference, and I will talk through the most material items. Our owned and controlled land bank has risen to over 61,000 plots, and all of that land has been bought at attractive returns. The growth in plots reflects the success of our land buying strategy since the onset of COVID, and you'll see that again, there's an increased weighting of plots in our pipeline. These are pending the receipt of a detailed planning permission as under-resourced planning departments continue to suffer from a backlog of applications. Overall, our total land bank now stands at some 98,000 plots. If you go back to FY 2019, financial year 2019, that provides a useful comparison point, because back then, volume output was not too dissimilar to last year at just below 11,000 homes. Our overall land bank back then was some 30% smaller and comprised only 69,000 plots. Today's much stronger land bank has two main benefits. Firstly, it should lead to outlet growth in the second half of this financial year and beyond, and as Jason has already mentioned, we are hopeful that this will help to offset softer customer demand. Secondly, and importantly, our strengthened position allows us to reinforce our disciplined land buying criteria, ensuring that we are selective in the year ahead. We will still cautiously consider land purchases to maintain operational certainty, but we will contract fewer plots, and we will reduce cash expenditure on land. Investment in construction-based work in progress stands at GBP one and a half billion, which is an increase on last year, although plots are generally in earlier stages of production compared to 12 months ago. Our immediate WIP priorities are designed to preserve balance sheet resilience. In that regard, we will build out the current order book, and we will accelerate the production of contracted social housing plots. This approach will support cash collection, and it will help drive H1 completions, which broadly speaking, I expect to be in line with the 5,700 homes we completed in H1 last year. Beyond these WIP priorities, our WIP investment will be considered on a site-by-site basis, and as ever, it will have regard to our order book and the strength of localized demand. Our cash position is very strong. We ended last year with net cash of GBP 245 million, better than expected, principally because of the timing of land cash outflows. Notably, the average month-end cash balance of GBP 224 million was not dissimilar to the year-end figure, which demonstrates the strength of the group throughout the year. Land creditors remained low at GBP 393 million, and adjusted gearing inclusive of land creditors was just over 4%. While the long-term housing fundamentals are robust, Brexit, Ukraine, COVID, a change in government, high inflation and global economic concerns all weigh heavily on the share price. Of course, the end of Help to Buy, mortgage availability and rise in interest rates provide their own sector related threats. My intention is not to try to predict doom and gloom, but instead to rationalize the benefits of a sizable, yet sensible cash balance, which offers Bellway resilience and substantial downside protection. Importantly, it also allows us to remain agile, responsive and strategically flexible while still pursuing our longer term growth ambitions. In the year ahead, we will maintain this resilient position. Our strong land bank means we will spend less on land. Our WIP investment will be directed towards cash collection, and we will control our overheads while retaining key people in the business. As a result of this approach, we will remain in an average cash position throughout FY 2023, while ensuring that the long-term health of the business is not compromised. As a reminder, we have committed debt facilities of GBP 530 million, and they include GBP 400 million of rolling credit provided by four relationship banks and GBP 130 million of fixed rate USPP loan notes. We have substantial headroom arising from diversified sources of capital. Our position is strong. We can preserve value. It is not 2008, and we do not need to run for cash. We are proposing to increase the final dividend by 15% to 95 pence per share, and this will mean a total dividend of 140 pence and a full year dividend cover of three times underlying earnings. We still expect this cover to reduce to 2.5 times underlying earnings by FY 2024, which is in line with previous guidance. This is a forward-looking policy which considers the long-term potential for growth and recurring rather than one-off shareholder returns. It also ensures that there's sufficient capital available to secure necessary land investment in the years ahead. It also accommodates rising tax rates, building safety costs, and our desire to maintain balance sheet resilience at a time of heightened global uncertainty. Our Better with Bellway sustainability strategy includes eight priority areas, and it's now published on our website, which includes targets, KPIs, and a selection of case studies. Jason will touch on our Customer First program and our strong employee engagement scores. I've already covered building safety, but I did also want to briefly update you with regards to carbon reduction. We have two ambitious carbon reduction targets, both of which extend to 2030. I'm pleased to say that they've now both been validated by the Science Based Targets initiative. Our first target is to reduce Scope one and two emissions by 46%, which we covered at our Meet the Team Day in September. Our second target is to reduce Scope three emissions by 55% per square meter. That target's in line with the requirements of the Paris Agreement, which is intended to restrict the rise in global warming to well below two degrees Celsius. We're making good progress with regards to the Future Homes Standard with R&D projects in five locations. These include Energy House two, which is a home built in a laboratory chamber in Salford in Greater Manchester. In combination, these trials test the practical use of a variety of innovations from triple glazing through to air source heat pumps. There's still a lot to learn, but this approach, together with ongoing supply chain engagement, will help to ensure that the business is better prepared for the new building regulations. To summarize today's presentation, or at least the financial aspects. Financial guidance is more uncertain than usual, but assuming current pricing and volume output similar to last year, we expect to deliver a full year underlying operating margin of over 18% and an average selling price of around GBP 300,000. Our balance sheet is solid, with a strengthened land bank, and we have access to substantial sources of diversified capital. We expect to maintain an average cash position in the year ahead and over the next two years and by the end of FY 2024, the dividend cover is expected to reduce to two and a half times underlying earnings. Overall, Bellway is in an excellent position to weather the current storm, and it is well placed to continue delivering long-term value for shareholders. I'll now pass you back over to Jason. Thank you, Keith. I'm going to start with trading. I won't spend too much time on FY 2022, as I guess you're more interested in the current environment. If I could refer you to the first slide, you will see that in FY 2022, we enjoyed a strong trading period with reservations up by 7% and house price inflation up by 8%-10%. Underlying demand is apparent from our visitor rates and modest cancellation rate. While that demand meant that our order book remained strong, it also meant that we traded through outlets more quickly and had limited stock availability towards the year end. Moving into the current year. In the first 9 weeks since August 1, we have seen overall reservations down by 12% and private reservations down by 27%. Our cancellation rate has increased very slightly to 14%. Year to date, we have achieved a private sales rate of around 0.55 per week. It's worth breaking down that 9 weeks into separate months. As you can see from the slide, August sales continued largely as expected, although still suffered a little from limited availability. In September, you can see there is a marked change in reservations with a reduction in private sales of around 40%. There are two reasons behind that performance. First, we had the passing of the Queen with an extended period of mourning. More latterly, the sudden changes in the mortgage market following the negative response to the then Chancellor's program of support and tax cuts. Early signs of trading in October suggest a similar rate or pattern to September. Customers are cautious about committing to a house purchase and are adopting a wait and see approach, principally due to the uncertainty around mortgage rates. That situation is not helped by our WIP position as much of our build is in the early stages of construction. A new home purchased from me today would likely attract a completion date of spring 2023, and that is beyond the period of a mortgage offer. Understandably, customers are unwilling to commit. Now, despite the slower start to the year, as at week nine, we are strongly forward sold with an order book approaching 7,300 homes, of which 71% is contracted, and most of which will unwind during the financial year. Overall, we are 77% forward sold for July 2023. For me, it's too early to write off the housing market. There are many reasons to suggest that beyond the near term, a slower but more normalized trading environment will return. There remains, as Keith has mentioned, long-term structural demand for new homes. We can offer attractive lower running costs due to energy efficiency. There are benefits from new stamp duty savings, and we still have very strong employment levels. If I could take a quick look at the mortgage market. In late September, some lenders stopped accepting new applications and removed many products from the market. The majority, including all the majors, are now lending again, having repriced in line with higher interest rates. Today, typical mortgage rates are between 5% and 6%. To ease affordability, some purchasers are taking out longer term mortgages, increasing the period from 25 years to 30 years or more. That said, there is likely to be a period of slower sales as the market adapts to higher interest rates. Whilst those higher interest rates were anticipated, we anticipated them to be over a slower and more gradual period. It's the immediacy, the pace of change that's led to the caution in the market. I also think it's worth mentioning the running costs of new home ownership and the energy efficiency benefits from our homes. A new study from the HBF has shown that a typical new build house produce savings of around £2,000 per year compared to the running costs of a second-hand property. Turning now to land. You can see our land bank is in good shape, now approaching 100,000 plots. Our early return to the land market in the summer of 2020 allows us to be very selective with any future investment. All land purchases are approved by myself and the land team at head office, and we cross-check the due diligence carried out by our divisions. This disciplined approach ensures that we can, before any decision is made, we can cross-check risk hurdle rates and return on capital employed. We have acquired around 1000 plots year to date, and I will continue to be very cautious with any further investment. Where I do intend to continue with investment is in strategic land, which is less capital intensive. You may recall that we restructured our strat land department some 18 months ago, and I'm particularly pleased with the performance of our strat teams as historically this has been a smaller part of our business. With bigger teams, bigger investment, our strategic land bank has matured to some 36,000 plots, and the majority of these plots have a realistic chance of securing planning success within a 3- to 7-year time frame. Turning now to production. Despite the volatility of recent weeks, it's still worth remembering that supply chain issues still persist. That said, we delivered a record volume this year of over 11,000 homes, so clearly the issues are becoming manageable. The biggest obstacle that we encounter is the envelope, the structure of the home. Sourcing enough bricks, blocks, roof tiles, and windows where the cost pressure is still proving to be a challenge. Although once inside with the internal trades, programs do tend to become more consistent and more reliable. Strong relationships in our supply chain are a big help, and we do our best to mitigate the problems. We may use concrete bricks in lieu of clay bricks. We are using more timber frame in lieu of block work. We often build retaining walls from timber or concrete instead of clay bricks. In addition, our Artisan range of standard house types is very much maturing and offering efficiency through repetition. Artisan is now plotted on 95% of all new sites and will account for around 40% of completions within this financial year. Now to touch on Better with Bellway. I'm very pleased with the results of our recent employee engagement survey, where 95% of our colleagues recommend Bellway as a great place to work. In the year, we've also made progress in a number of other areas, increased pension contributions, a new low emission car scheme, and we actively promote an inclusive culture right across the group. A big challenge for our industry is retaining and attracting new people, so being an employer of choice is a critical part of our success. We are very focused on training every level and every discipline, particularly in our earn and learn roles where we hope to grow to 12% of our staff within the next two years. Now importantly for our customers, we are a five-star house builder as measured by our customers, but I'm not sure that that holds the same weight as it may have done, say, five years ago. Our recently launched Customer First program is designed to take quality and service a step higher. Our eight-week survey is already a very impressive 94%, and our nine-month customer survey has now improved to 82% with our ambition to grow towards 90% in the next three to four years. Not easy to achieve, but many of you who enjoyed our fun day out at Great Dunmow last month would have had an insight or would have seen what we're trying to offer to our customers. Our meet the builder approach, our cleanliness, our site tidiness, they're all designed to be more customer facing. This approach has enabled us to be one of the first house builders to sign up to the New Homes Quality Board. Finally, outlook. It is worth reiterating that Bellway is in a resilient position. We have around GBP 250 million of cash in the bank, and we have a strengthened land bank that supports less investment in the year ahead. That said, clearly we are in the midst of a period of volatility. While we had the capacity to deliver 12,200 homes for FY 2023, the market is unlikely to support that now, and I'm not willing to chase sales at the expense of margin. Operationally, we are strong. Outlet numbers are increasing and will help offset weaker demand. WIP is biased towards social housing completions and will help underpin volumes. Our order book is in excess of GBP 2 billion. Finally, as guidance for the full year, a volume similar to last year of around 11,200 homes feels more realistic today. This may of course change as we move through the autumn and spring selling seasons. Thank you. Keith and I are now happy to take questions. Thanks. Aynsley Lammin from Investec. Just two from me, please. On the flat volume assumption, just wondered if you could give us an insight into what you've assumed around sales rates and the expected split between private and social underlying that. Then secondly, just on build cost inflation, just wondered what it was currently running at and what you expect it to run for the FY 2023. Any kind of more insight there? Thanks. I mean, on the sales rate, I've probably spent so many times here saying don't focus it on a per site, per week basis, but I'm probably gonna do that now to answer the question. We came into this year with an order book 65% of that 11,200 target, which is unusually high. It's been there for the past two years because of COVID. A more typical carried forward position would be maybe 45%-50%. We expect the order book to unwind anyway, and we think if that order book unwound to that sort of level, you could deliver a private sales rate somewhere between 0.55 and 0.6 per week for the full financial year. Now, that is in line with what we've delivered in the first 9 weeks, albeit that exit rate is low, as you see in the presentation. It doesn't feel like a particularly racy sales rate to get to that sort of level of output. But it does require the September position to improve from where it's been. Aynsley, on build costs, it's not an easy question to answer. If I can just give you the facts. The material line is where the pressure is at the moment and those, where I mentioned about the envelope of the building, those costs, you know, bricks, blocks, roof tiles, where there's a lot of energy in producing those materials, that's where we're finding the most cost pressure at the moment. In terms of labor, you know, we're just starting with our contractors to go out to re-tender prices for 2023 to see if we can get better prices as the market cools down a little bit. We might see some softening in some of those labor prices as companies start to look for, you know, workload for 2023 and 2024. Overall, you know, best guess is cost pressure feels like 7%-10% at the moment, but I'm hoping to see some of that give in the new year. Ami Galla from Citi. Just two from me as well. The first one on trading. It's quite helpful color that you've given, but regionally in that 9-week period, are there any stark differences between, say, the urban areas versus, say, some of the regional markets? The second one really on the land market. You've mentioned you will be selective on land acquisitions going forward. I think most of the house builders are giving a similar commentary. What sort of activity levels do you really see in the land market today? Tied to that, on the SME builders side, is there any color that you can give us in terms of what's the underlying health of that subsegment? Are there any liquidity issues or funding pressures that they're seeing in the market today? Does that also mean that labor costs probably come down a lot more sharper? Okay. I'll do my best. Trading, I can't pretend that there's any difference U.K.-wide, Ami. I've got such a small window. You know, there's just been a sudden change since the Chancellor's intervention and the whole market's down. That's my reading of it. In terms of land acquisition, it's difficult to predict what will happen in the land market. I can only comment from Bellway's point of view. We don't need to buy any land, certainly not in this, our first half. You know, we'll probably sit on our hands for the best part and then see what the world looks like in 2023, in the new year. It's difficult to predict whether there'll be any forced sellers in the market. I would suggest that most house builders are adopting, you know, a similar position to us. Sometimes, Ami, you can still buy land, but with a little bit of wriggle room, so you can sign up conditionally and say, "Look, we'll pay this price, but we'll have a walk-away clause if the market deteriorates." We would be willing to do something like that, but on a limited basis. At SMEs, for me, the problem with SMEs is not the land market. These guys suffer from the planning regime, not the land market. Whereas we've invested heavily in land, so we can mitigate the problems of the planning environment, SMEs don't enjoy that luxury, so sometimes they're committing to investment, and it's taking them a year plus to get planning. I'd suggest SMEs are suffering more from planning than in the land environment. Thank you. Glynis Johnson, Jefferies. Four, if I may. First one in terms of capital allocation. Keith, you gave us all sorts of caveats to, or what you've included in your capital allocation thought process. Maybe if we can push you a bit further, what kind of downside do you believe that that payout ratio is still applicable for in terms of how the market progresses? Second one, actually following up on Ami's question on land buying. Of the 1,000 plots that you signed for, what are you assuming? How do you come to the value of that land, or is it that it has that conditionality? Thirdly, just in terms of incentives, it seems to be the tool of choice for the next couple of months or so. Can you just talk us through what kind of incentives you've seen, you know, step up, in the last few weeks in particular? Then lastly, another one for Keith. Cash outs. Obviously, cladding cash outs is something you probably have less ability to flex. What about land creditors through the next 12 months? You know, are there any other cash outs that we need to assume must occur, you know, and what do you have flexibility on? Well- Can you do the first and the last? Yeah. So on the capital allocation point, I suppose a little bit of history. As you know, we've always paid, as a listed company, probably the only house builder, I think, who's always paid a dividend and, you know, we want to keep that record. I suppose the way I'd answer it is, If you're in a bit of a blip and it's a little bit of a wobble, you don't really want to change that allocation policy. If it's something more pronounced, more prolonged and long-term and more drastic, where it brings a, not a question mark, but where you want to maintain that resilience, that's when you'd look to maybe flex that payout ratio. I'm not envisaging that, or I'm hoping that's not gonna be the scenario. In either of those answers, I think the position is we still want to be able to maintain a dividend, and we'll make the final decision at the time, depending on the circumstances at the time. In terms of cash outflows, what sensitivities do we have? Well, assuming we do that 11,200 this year and the sales market remains or improves to a more normalized albeit subdued level, we think a land spend of something like GBP 850 million might be a best case scenario in terms of cash out the door. That compares to GBP 1.1 billion last year, so you can see it going down over. Of that, 300 million is contracted land creditors. But I do want to put a caveat around that. That's based on a reasonable scenario. If the market falls away, it doesn't recover, clearly we can pull that back towards a much lower figure. The cladding piece, in terms of commitments on the cladding, despite our best efforts, you know, we probably spent less than GBP 30 million on cladding in the last financial year. So while we are likely to spend more in the year ahead, it's not gonna be a sort of GBP 100 million figure. It's probably somewhere in between what we spent last year and that GBP 100 million, so, you know, GBP 50 million, GBP 60 million of that sort of order. I can't think of anything else, particularly where you've got a big cash commitment. We haven't got big apartment blocks or anything like that. Just on the land point, Glynis. I've only bought 5 sites this year which make up that 1,000 plots. Two of those had what I call a walk away clause in it, so we can decide if we want to buy them in the future. One was a much larger site with a very strong margin in it. It's difficult to make assumptions at the moment. I get your question. What we do is we make sure that we cover all the Future Homes costs from 2023 into 2025. We ensure that the divisions put in slower sales rates, so we've got, you know, a downside scenario or more risk, realistic selling environment going forward. So that's all I can explain on that sort of short number of sites that we've got to date. We're very aware that we could be in a flatter revenue environment with still some pressure on the cost line. In terms of incentives are just a normal part of business for house builders. We've just got used to not having incentives 'cause of COVID for two years, so you know, them coming back is not unusual. Certainly from a Bellway perspective, we won't panic to bring out incentives. The reason I say that is I've only really got 100 or 150 plots to sell for half year, so I might use some incentives on tidying up those sales. I'm really selling, Glynis, into spring 2023. What we thought we would do is in the new year, when hopefully the politics have calmed down a little bit, have settled, then we'll have a new incentive campaign that we'll roll out UK-wide that might be focused on energy, it might be focused on mortgages, it might be focused on, you know, the specification of the house, but that's something we'll do for January, February. Yeah, Jon Bell from Deutsche Bank. I think I've got three. The first one is actually linked with Glynis's question. Jason, when you talk to your sales teams around the country, what are they saying at this stage that they need? Is it more Part Exchange? Is it greater price flexibility? Is it everything? Just keen to know what their messaging is from them. The second one, when the government asks you what you need, which presumably they do from time to time, does more Help to Buy ever come up for discussion, or is that a complete non-starter? And then the third one, you include in the pack the line, "More sites to help offset softer demand." Does it make sense to open those sites at this stage, given the environment, or maybe hold off and keep them fresh? What kind of flexibility do you have there on those sites? I'll start with your first one in terms of sales teams, John. This won't come as any surprise to you, but as you travel around the country, the sensitivity, the closer you get to Westminster, the more sensitive the sales teams are to what's going on in the world. They're more relaxed if you're in sort of the northeast or in Newcastle. That was very similar to Brexit, you know, where I remember having the same discussion then. I think what they're encouraged by, the sales team, is that while reservations have come down by 40% suddenly, there's still interest there. They're still getting inquiries. We're still getting appointments. They're buoyed by that. In terms of Help to Buy, I think it's a well-asked question. I've got no dialogue with the government, you know, but, you know, they've managed to fill their in-tray up on their own, haven't they? What we should be doing, because with mortgage rates at 5% and 6%, this is gonna hurt first-time buyers. They're the ones who are gonna suffer first 'cause they've got no wriggle room in their finances. If the government could think about a Help to Buy product or a skinny Help to Buy product, as I call it, John, that's 10%, that will keep that housing ladder moving, that would still give first-time buyers the opportunity to get a deposit to move in, I think that would be a very healthy scheme. I'm not sure we need 40% deposits in London. I think that sort of distorts the market sometimes. A skinny Help to Buy for first-time buyers would be very good. I did mention it to someone here that I might write Liz Truss a letter and recommend it. They said, "Make sure you put a first-class stamp on it, Jason." Your one on outlets going forward. I think my approach to that, I've got two ways to run the business. I've got a short-term approach, John, about controlling costs, less land spend, and moderating WIP. I think that's where that category comes in. We will look at moderating WIP going forward. Any sites that we've got starting beyond our half year, normally we may have been quite aggressive, and we'd put all the roads in. We may put 100 foundations in. Well, just at the moment, we might only put in 50 meters of road now. You know, come off the gas a little bit. Let's just put enough foundations in to serve you know, the first sort of street scene and just cool down a little bit until we can see what the horizon looks like in 2023. Good morning. It's John Fraser-Andrews, HSBC. Three for me, please. The first is on the sales rate. Appreciate, Keith, sounds like per site is not your favorite topic. I think your sales rate in September, if outlets are lower, then clearly per site it's not as bad as down 39% on private. I wondered if you have that in mind. There's a year-on-year comparison. Second one is on pricing. It sounds, Jason, as if you haven't rolled out incentives at all. Have prices in current trading been absolutely firm with the year-end exit rate? Then the third one is on the cash position, the average cash. Is that a commitment, Keith, to sort of being positive? If market conditions do deteriorate, you'll just come off the land investment, and as you sell, particularly with your forward order book, you will actually end up quite strongly cash generative over the year if you don't do stable year-on-year completions. On the sales rate per site per week, you're right, the decline of 40% on private sales. If you look at it on a per site basis in September, it isn't as declined. I think we had 236 average outlets in the first nine weeks of this year. That was 255 this time last year. If you work it out, you're right to say it's probably about a 35% decline or something of that sort of order. I must be sort of perfectly honest. I think if you've got a 40% decline in sales, adjusting it for 4% or 5% or so is neither here nor there. The market's slowed down. It needs to recover to get back up to that 0.5, 0.6 level, 0.55, 0.6 for the rest of the year. We're just taking the view that we're in the eye of the storm and hopefully when people adjust to higher interest rates, that things will calm down a little bit. In terms of cash generation, I mean, I'd maybe describe it, there's more certainty over H1. I expect us to broadly be in an average cash position of GBP 200 million or so in H1 of this year. Then, we don't want to go into debt. I'm not saying you'll never dip into it very modestly. You've got GBP half a billion facilities, but in the current market, I think that strength of having a bit of cash just makes you feel better about the world. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a similar cash flow to last year when we end the year at FY23, July 2023, with GBP 250 million plus. Now you're right. If the market really slows down and you don't get those completions through, you'll probably throw off more cash because you'll pull back land spend even more. That's probably got a greater benefit in that scenario to the start of FY24 rather than the end of FY23. Just in terms of pricing, John. You know, as we sit here today, I've got no down valuations. I've got no pricing pressure across the group. I suspect there may be some in the new year. We will approach it on a regional basis or even a site-by-site basis, John. I would guess, you know, Manchester's gonna be a little bit more robust than probably Somerset or something like that. We will look at pricing levels in the new year just based on where you are on a site. If you've only got 10 to sell on a site, we may take a view if we wanna move on to the next outlet. It's a site-by-site basis, John, for us. Thank you. Alastair Stewart from Shore Capital. I got a couple of questions. Are your 120 new outlets all gonna be in existing regions? Forgive me, I can't remember offhand whether you were planning any new regions, but are they still going ahead if you were planning any? Jason, you mentioned the smaller house builders were suffering more under the planning system. Do you see any opportunities to buy any of the smaller guys, not really as acquisitions per se, but as land deals if the opportunities come your way? In terms of the new outlets, I think it's a very good point that you make, Alastair, because new outlets are quite strong for house builders. We all get consumed by numbers of outlets, but you know, an aged outlet won't tend to sell doesn't do a lot for us, whereas launching new outlets, that new interest, that really does spike sales rates for us. They're all in existing divisions across the group with established sales teams. Keith alluded to in his presentation that we've put the one or two divisions that we'd planned on hold for the time being, and we'll just monitor that into 2023. We're not making any progress in that regard. Am I interested? I'm not sure whether your question is an M&A question or a land bank question but It's purely land bank. Yeah. I'm in most of the land, three-quarters of the land I bought, you know, over the last two years was probably agreed or purchased in the summer of 2020. I've got the benefit of probably some HPI in there, and I'll have to put up with a lot of cost inflation as well. I don't need to buy too much land, Alastair. I'm in a very strong position, so it's not something that interests me per se. Thanks very much. It's Charlie Campbell at Liberum. Just a couple of questions, please, if I can. Just wondering what the take-up of variable rate mortgages is. Clearly there's not, they've not been much of a thing in the last few years, but clearly they were in the past. The headline rates are obviously much lower on those. Just wondering if those are appealing to your customers at all. Then secondly, just wonder if you could just take us through the rationale for the strategic land acquisition, and maybe a number on the assets maybe might be helpful just to get an idea of the size of it. Thank you. The variable rate mortgages, I mean, we don't necessarily get those stats from the brokers who our clients tend to use. That's between the brokers and the customers. What we are getting as feedback is that more and more people are taking out longer term mortgages. Something like 2/3 of customers at the start of this year have had mortgages of terms in excess of 25 years, and that makes quite a difference in terms of the affordability. Also you've had a period of time, the rates bob about a little bit, but where you're getting a better deal on a 5-year fixed than you are a 2-year fixed. We're seeing those two things as being a bigger part of the market and I think that will continue. It's an easy way for people to keep those payments down as a percentage of take-home pay. The second question on the strategic land acquisition. Yeah, Charlie, on strategic land, the first little company we bought was small. It was just in the Midlands area. It was in a place where we perceived there will be growth. It wasn't big numbers, you know, it's 12 sites. We've recently acquired another that's probably 30-odd sites, you know. It's that sort of scale that's manageable and can be digested into our strategic and planning team, so we can process it internally. We quite like that because it gives us a little bit more visibility on the pipeline of sites coming through the system. It's quite healthy for us while we sort of pull out of the land market at the moment. This, you know, this first company, it's, you know, it's less than the cost of a site, but it's given you know, a dozen or so options. It's not a huge capital outlay. It's a long term, fairly modest in the size of the business, just part of that longer term land play. Yeah. Thanks very much. Morning. Sam Cullen from Berenberg. I've got 3, two of which are fairly straightforward, I think. The first one on the Building Safety Pledge and your kind of two buckets. Can you give us an idea of what the split of that 484 is between those two buckets, i.e., what you've surveyed and what's the sort of known unknown within that? Secondly, you talked about first time buyers a bit, and you disclose kind of first time buyers at the back of the pack. Do you have a number on the number of cash buyers you have each year? And then lastly, I guess tying in John and Glenn's question and your comments, Keith, around margin preservation. Do you have a sense of how much pain the business is willing to take on the volume front over the next 12-18 months should demand kind of continue to fall at the rate it has in the last 6 weeks, and what you're kind of willing to see in terms of volume declines? On the Building Safety Pledge, I was hoping somebody would ask 'cause I've got pages of analysis on this. It's broadly two-thirds of that provision relates to that first bucket, which is the known issues. Even then there are uncertainties around it, but that's roughly what the split is there. On margin and volume, what are you prepared to take? I mean, I'm never sure that the dynamic works that mathematically or scientifically to an extent it's driven by what the market is. I think the sentiment is we don't want to blindly pursue volume to hit an arbitrary target, especially in a slower market, because that can be value destructive. We take the view, it's a balanced approach. We don't want to chase a sales rate just for the sake of chasing the sales rate because the more you give away in incentives, you talked about incentives earlier on, you know, as soon as you open the floodgates on that, if you open them too widely, you'll have an incentive on every plot which you don't need. You've got to have that considered, disciplined approach. I can't give you a figure what it's all going to be market dependent, but the sentiment I think is important to understand. Cash buyers, again, that's not a figure we necessarily get from our mortgage brokers. I think when we did a bit of a survey, it was something like 10-15% probably don't need a mortgage of that sort of range. Now whether that changes going forward, it probably will a little bit 'cause I suspect people, if they can, want to avoid that mortgage. We've also had less reliance on first time buyers over recent years as well, which obviously plays into that market as well. All done. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you.