Many of you here in person today and a really great buzz in the room. Hopefully we'll build on that with a great set of results today. Before I kick off with the results, let me just remind you why we're here in the first place. We help people achieve a better later life. That's what Just is all about. We fulfill that purpose by helping more people, and we achieve that by growing sustainably, which as you know, is one of our key themes. We are the retirement specialist, and we use this strategic focus, our market insight and our intellectual property to differentiate Just. We successfully innovate and through that deliver award-winning service and exceptional outcome for our customers. Financially, we continue to be disciplined in our pricing and risk selection, both on the asset and liability side to ensure we write low-strain, profitable new business. This means we can stretch our organic capital generation to fund strong new business growth. It's a self-financing model that delivers attractive rates of return to our shareholders and will support a growing dividend over time. Turning to the highlights of those results I mentioned on slide 5. Let's start with underlying operating profit, which was up 19% to GBP 249 million. We committed this time last year that we would deliver 15% growth per annum on average over the medium term. We didn't promise to meet it every year, but we wanted to demonstrate the confidence we had in our ambition. A year in and a year out I promise we are more confident than ever. This profit was achieved by delivering a great sales result of, over GBP 3 billion, up 17%. The strong sales momentum that we experienced last year has continued into the current year, as evidenced by last week's announcement of our largest ever DB deal to date, a GBP 513 million transaction with Melrose, in what has been, by some stretch, our busiest ever start to the year for DB. In our retail business, rising interest rates provide a tailwind for our GIfL sales, and we expect it will be a stronger market in 2023 than we've seen for some time. The prospects for our retail business are brighter, and I'll come back to this topic later in my presentation. We've achieved this impressive growth while maintaining an exceptional new business strain of only 1.9%. Our new business teams continue to exercise superb pricing discipline. Interest rates and strong capital management has resulted in our capital coverage ratio improving by 35 percentage points to 199%, and our ROE has increased to close to 11%. We will strive to continue improving this metric by growing profitable new business and prudently managing the group. We also know the importance of a dividend to shareholders, we've increased it by 15%. Moving on slide 6. I said at a year in, we are even more confident in our ability to hit our 15% profit growth target. There's 4 main reasons for our growing confidence. Firstly, there's the DB market. With higher interest rates and sponsor contributions helping to rapidly narrow or indeed eliminate pension scheme deficits, the DB market has over a decade of elevated activity ahead. Next is our place in that market. We're a leader in the smaller transaction size segment, and we estimate in 2022 we have written over 1/4 of total market deals by number. As you know, we write bigger transactions too. Overall, we wrote close to 10% of market transactions by value last year, and we maintain that level of ambition as we move forward into 2023 and beyond. Next, our investments capacity and capability is much increased with over 60% growth in a liquid asset origination in 2022. Our growing manager of managers model is working really well here as we diversify our investments. Put all that together with an even stronger balance sheet and very low new business strain, we have all the components in place to drive the business forward and achieve our ambitions. There's much excitement amongst commentators about the potential increasing size of the DB market in the near term. We're excited about that too, but we view the positive outlook for this market over a much longer time period. I'd like to take a moment just to outline why we can expect around GBP 600 billion to transact over the next decade. First, down the top left, the remaining op-opportunity available is enormous despite 15 years of de-risking activity already. Cumulatively, only 11% of DB liabilities have moved to insurers via buy-in or buy-out transactions. For the last few years, it's only been around 1%-2% per annum, a tiny proportion. This is truly a multi-year opportunity. On top right, a reminder that the schemes continue to mature with insurers equally able to take pensioner and deferred members. Last September's interest rate volatility has reminded trustees, and especially their sponsors, of the inherent risks of managing these liabilities. The propensity to transact has increased. On the bottom right, funding rates improved gradually at first as sponsors increased contributions. Recently, we've seen more rapid increases driven by rising interest rates. We show the LCP estimate of how funding levels develop by quartile in the future. You can see the top quartile is fully funded today. On the present trajectory, this doubles to half of all schemes being fully funded in around five years' time. All these indicators point to substantial market growth in both the short and longer term. We are seeing that activity levels have increased substantially over the past few months to reflect all of this. The solid foundations we've established, I hope helped illustrate what we are confident in delivering continuing growth. Since 2013, we have completed around 300 DB transactions. That's over one in six of all the DB market transactions in that period. We're a top three insurer ranked by number of deals completed. Through this vast deal experience, we've built a leadership presence in this market. Our presence has grown rapidly as we scaled up. This business has real momentum. Last year, we showed how we could flex our resources to grow. We completed 56 deals, pretty much double what we did the previous year. We believe that's more than a quarter of the total market. Many of these came towards the end of the year. Smaller pension schemes are less complex and tend to have less interest rate hedging in place. They were able to take advantage of their notable improvement in funding level to transact quickly. Putting it all together, as I said, we believe we represented about 10% of the market by value last year. I said a moment ago that we have real momentum. Our first quarter sales, traditionally the quietest period of the year, are set to exceed the first 6 months of last year. We've lots more to go after. What can we achieve? We can do much more in the smaller transaction area where we have a leadership position and a competitive advantage. It's a huge underserved opportunity with over 3,700 pension schemes. We often transact on an exclusive basis when we achieve the scheme's target price. We've been successfully originating business through our highly effective bulk quotation service and by attracting a growing portion of repeat clients. Last year, of all the transactions we completed, half were originated through our bulk quotation service. We're continuing to invest in that proposition to extend our reach and grow the potential of this service in an increasingly active and busy market. In 2022, 15 of our transactions were from existing clients who we'd previously transacted with. We're always delighted to win this type of business because it's a very strong endorsement from the trustees of the service and member experience we provide. As we demonstrated, both approaches are scalable and have significant growth potential. Over 75% of all schemes have assets of less than GBP 100 million, These schemes can really benefit from our bulk quotation service. In addition, though, we will deepen our participation in the larger scheme segment on the right-hand side. Our largest-ever transaction has been steadily increasing year-on-year as we successfully expanded our capability and risk appetite. As Preeti Sagoo outlined at our DB event in November, we now have a fully mobilized platform for larger deals and have appetite for transactions that are over GBP 1 billion plus. That's all about the DB business, let's turn to our retail business for a few moments. We continue to be well-positioned to deliver excellent outcomes to our over 650,000 existing customers and a growing number of new customers. As you know, we provide a Guaranteed Income for Life for customers. This secure income is often purchased to cover the essential expenditure of the household. In these uncertain times, when so many customers have witnessed significant volatility in their retirement savings, our solutions provide much-needed reassurance to customers. Working through this slide, starting on the top left, the structural drivers for growth in this market are deeply embedded: demographics and saving behavior. The number of people in the U.K. aged 60 and older will gradually move from a quarter of the population towards a third over the next generation. I've not included a chart, but you'll all be familiar with the continued success of the government's auto-enrolment policy, which has resulted in 11 million people saving into DC pensions in the workplace and there's legislative efforts in train to expand that further. In the bottom left chart, you'll see that GIfL rates have increased by around 50% in the last 12 months, which has materially improved the attractiveness of this product. We've received significant demand from financial advisors as per the top right chart. The really interesting thing is that many of these advisors have in place an annuity with our customer for years. Now the income rate available to clients from GIfL means that for most advisors, they must consider this product as part of their client's retirement solution. Having a strong retail business gives us further options on where we deploy our capital. In 2022, the retail market was less attractive, so we chose to write less business. Far this year, however, the market is showing healthy growth, and we've written significantly more business at attractive rates of return. We see many opportunities to develop our retail business and to help the customers who have moved over GBP 120 billion of pension savings into pension drawdown accounts since 2014. We'd like to help these people achieve a secure retirement. In order to participate in the tremendous DB opportunity, we need to have the right investments to support new business pricing and deliver reliable and secure returns for our shareholders. We've had a very successful year. We made over GBP 1 billion of other illiquid investment in 2022. The table on the top left shows the flexibility that our manager of managers approach brings. For example, in 2022, private placement spreads were at their most attractive for some time, mirroring to some extent the public markets, while we were more selective on commercial real estate. Our growth in origination over the last 3 years demonstrates both the power and flexibility of our model. On the right are some examples of what we actually invested in during the year. This shows the geographical reach and sector breadth that our investment model can secure. This includes an inflation-linked UK ground rent, a US healthcare private placement, and a German renewable. We added 3 new investment managers to our roster in 2022, and they are already making a good contribution. This growing roster, the underlying growth potential in our chosen sectors, and the proposed changes to Solvency II asset eligibility give us confidence that we can continue to successfully originate the quantities of illiquid assets required for our growth plans. To summarize for now, the opportunities available to us have increased. We are accessing more of it, and our ability to fund that opportunity with a range of assets is being continually enhanced. We have the capital strength, resilience, and flexibility to fully participate and access this opportunity. First, our transformed new business model, writing at above our target mid-teen IRR on shareholder capital invested. At roughly a 2% new business strain, we can add another GBP 1 billion of business for just GBP 20 million of capital. That gives us real flexibility. Secondly, our higher solvency ratio helps indirectly as it can give added operational flexibility, in particular with larger transactions that I mentioned earlier. For example, it might make financial sense to wait for the right backing assets or better reinsurance pricing rather than trying to secure all that at the same time as a larger deal. Our DB partner model can help us here too, as it gives us further optionality as we secure those bigger transactions. As we look forward to a very busy 2023 and beyond, we're confident in our ability to execute and capture value from our participation in this attractive market. With that, I'll hand you over to Andy, who'll take you through the numbers in more depth. Thank you, David. Good morning to you all. As David has outlined, in 2022, we've achieved a very positive start in growing the business in excess of our medium-term profit growth target. This performance, combined with the buoyant DB market, reinforces our confidence in continuing to meet this target in the future. 2023 is expected to be a record year for DB market volumes, with scheme funding levels boosted by the rises in interest rates. As David has noted, we expect to have written more business over Q1 of this year than we wrote over the whole of half one 2022. A very strong start. Moving to the results. Underlying operating profit has demonstrated strong growth, up 19% to GBP 249 million, and in excess of the medium-term average annual growth target of 15% we announced this time last year. Higher interest rates have boosted in-force operating profit, which rose by 29% to GBP 116 million, reflecting higher returns on surplus assets, but have constrained new business profit, which increased by 4% to GBP 233 million, as 17% higher sales were offset by a lower margin. The rise in rates over 2022 reduced new business margin by around 1% due to the higher discounting of the spread-based margins we earn over the lifetime of our annuity contracts. The income we expect to receive over the lifetime of the contract is unchanged. Our finance costs fell to GBP 73 million due to the full-year run rate from the September 2021 R21 refinancing, and are expected to fall a further GBP 6 million in 2023 due to the repurchase and cancellation of Tier 2 debt in November. Return on equity rose to 10.7%, achieving our greater than 10% target. A dividend per share on a like-for-like annualized basis has increased by 15%, aligned with our medium-term profit growth target. A strong operational performance against what was a volatile economic backdrop. We've maintained a tight rein on costs and are increasingly benefiting from investment in our capabilities and infrastructure as we scale the business for the future. The strong start to 2023 further reinforces our confidence. Moving on to Solvency II on slide 14. Here we show the key components that make up our organic capital generation. Cash from in-force funds our new business growth, day-to-day running expenses, and returns to capital providers. Excluding external factors over time, cash from in-force will grow as the business grows. The reduction in 2022 is again a factor of interest rates, with these providing a significant boost to the solvency ratio through reducing the Solvency Capital Requirement and risk margin, with the consequence being the unwind of these items each year is thereby lower. Lower year-on-year finance costs leave the cash available to support new business broadly unchanged at GBP 90 million. Through continued strong pricing discipline, and optimized asset origination and selective partnering, we're very pleased to have restricted new business strain to GBP 60 million, equating to 1.9% of premium, and again well within our 2.5% target. Net of new business strain, our underlying capital generation was GBP 29 million. As we communicated previously, our focus on ongoing sustainable growth means we expect the GBP value of new business strain to grow each year and the underlying core capital generation after funding the strain to remain broadly flat. Management actions add to our organic capital generation, and this year we're boosted by assumption changes. Principally, a longevity assumption change, recognizing that the heightened mortality rates we've seen over the past three years will take some time to trend back to previously assumed longevity levels. Adding management actions and assumption changes leads to organic capital generation of GBP 134 million. Increased in-force cash as the business grows and further reductions in financing costs in 2023 will support our continued future growth ambitions through our low strain new business model, with ongoing management actions and any potential further mortality releases expected to continue to add to our underlying capital generation. Mentioned earlier, the capital coverage ratio has strengthened considerably over 2022, driven by the rise in long-term risk-free rates and also by the strong organic capital generation. The ratio rose by 35 percentage points over the year to 199%. We are obviously very comfortable at this level, which provides both security and additional flexibility, in particular at a time of economic uncertainty. This slide provides a little more color on mortality trends, as well as illustrating the impact of our longevity assumption change. The graph starting on the left axis shows the average mortality rate per annum for the 65- to 84-year-old age band. For this age group in 2000, there was a 1 in 25 chance of dying that year. Over the next 20 years until the pandemic, year-on-year improvements meant that by 2019, this had reduced for the same age cohort to just a 1 in 40 chance of dying. The pandemic has clearly distorted this trend, with the population experiencing elevated deaths over the past 3 years. The light green bars on the far right show the old pre-COVID CMI_2019 projection, a declining mortality trend assuming continued but reducing year-on-year improvements. Our new assumption is illustrated through the dark green block on top. This takes into account our most recent experience post-COVID-19 and trends that recent experience gradually back towards the previous projection over time. We're reflecting the assumption in both our back book reserving, where we're a little over 60% reinsured, and new business pricing, where we're 90% reinsured, where we're seeing similar improvements in pricing from our reinsurers. Moving on to investments. 2022 was a standout year as we achieved over GBP 1 billion of other illiquid asset origination, backing around 33% of our new business. Going forward, we expect our target new business mix to be approximately half in investment grade public fixed income investments and cash, with 10%-15% in lifetime mortgages and 35%-40% in a range of other illiquid fixed income assets. The chart on the bottom left shows our other illiquid assets provide both diversity of asset types, attractive returns, and also a complementary mix of duration and ratings. We continue to maintain a strong LTM proposition as we know the market well and LTMs meet a real societal need. However, we have been more selective in our origination of LTMs to back new business over the past few years as part of our strategy to bring our property sensitivity down, as the chart on the bottom right shows. We'll continue to build our illiquid investment origination capability to ensure we maintain a range of investment opportunities to support our new business growth. Our origination of over GBP 1 billion of new illiquid assets in 2022 included over 50 separate investments with strong growth in longer-dated commercial ground rents and income strips, and also in private placement financing for companies and institutions. As demonstrated by the recent growth, our outsourced investment model provides us with the ability to scale rapidly and to flex allocations between sectors and geographies while maintaining strict underwriting through our in-house team. We've increased the size and experience of our investment team as we broadened our illiquid asset origination. Our team worked very closely with our external managers on the structure of each investment, retaining a right of veto on every new asset. The dramatic movements in interest rates we saw over 2022, in particular after so many years of low rates, have affected the business in a number of ways, many of which we've touched on already, but this slide provides an easy summary. In the markets that we serve, higher rates are hugely beneficial in the DB business as they improve pension scheme funding, lowering or eradicating scheme deficits and freeing them to transact. Higher rates are also making GIfL products more attractive again for retail customers and their advisors. Higher rates will likely reduce demand for LTMs after the record year in 2022. As noted earlier, we've reduced our allocation to this asset class over recent years. The most obvious effect on our financials is on the Solvency II coverage ratio, which is now nudging 200%. Whilst we were very comfortable two years ago at 156%, having a significantly higher ratio can help to provide us with more financial freedom. As noted earlier, the higher solvency ratio reflects lower SCR and risk margin, which leads to lower unwind of these items through the future organic capital generation, as we've received the benefit into surplus already. We see two offsetting effects for our operating profit under both IFRS 4 and IFRS 17. We get a higher return on our surplus assets, but lower upfront new business margin. As I explained at the half year update, we've suffered losses during 2022 on interest rate hedges that were protecting our Solvency II position. We've gradually removed those hedges over the year as the solvency ratio has risen, removing the risk of future hedging losses. I'd like to finish with a slide reviewing our capital position. As well as a significant improvement in the overall headline capital ratio, over the past 3 years, we've also seen a significant improvement in the quality of our capital. Although TMTP is very much valid capital, it will run off gradually over the next 8 years. The top left chart illustrates the reduction in TMTP as part of our capital ratio over the past three and a half years, with this dropping from 87 percentage points in June 2019 to 47 percentage points at the end of 2022. We expect TMTP to reduce further to less than 30 percentage points of our ratio when the Solvency UK reforms, including a reduction to the risk margin, are enacted. This remaining TMTP will continue to run off gradually over time, although also still subject to interest rate volatility on a much smaller amount. Turning to the chart on the top right, as we've explained previously, over recent years we've taken deliberate action to reduce our exposure to UK house prices. As a result, the sensitivity of the solvency ratio to a 10% fall in house prices has fallen to 12 percentage points. Our approach to risks more generally is set out across the bottom of the slide, indicating the risks that we choose to hedge on the bottom left, and those risks we retain and for which we believe we are well rewarded on the right. Other than our exposure to UK house prices through LTMs, the main other risk we retain is through our liquid and other illiquid credit assets. Here, given that we are a buy-and-hold investor, our main exposure is a credit default or downgrade, with both having a limited cost to us historically. As an example, despite significant downgrading of credit assets through the pandemic, the impact on our solvency ratio was less than three percentage points. As noted earlier, our improved capital position has allowed us the flexibility to reduce our interest rate hedging of the Solvency II balance sheet. This will restrict future IFRS volatility, with this sensitivity close to zero at the year-end. This does lead to an increased Solvency II sensitivity to interest rates, but as noted earlier, this is today against a much higher ratio. With that, I'll hand back to David for his concluding remarks. Thanks, Andy, and thanks to everybody in the organization who's listening who contributed to those great set of results. Just a couple slides for me to finish off. The first here is just like to emphasize that we're very much focused on doing the right thing for our people, as you've already heard our customers, but also for the planet. Our efforts have led to a consistent improvement in our ESG scores from the main agencies, Sustainalytics, MSCI, and CDP. In 2020, you may recall we were the first UK insurer to issue a green bond. In 2021, we followed this by becoming the first European insurer to issue a sustainability RT1 bond. I'm delighted to say that by year-end 2022, we had completed the full GBP 575 million investment commitment on those two bonds well ahead of the required post-issuance window. Overall, we invested in 23 green and social projects across a range of assets: renewables, social housing, and two green buildings, one of which funded the construction of NHS medical student accommodation in Kent. Importantly, our investments are aligned to wider social goals and government policy, such as the need for more social housing and building the path to carbon net zero. As the graph on the bottom right shows, we are well on track to achieve our target of net zero from our own operations by 2025. Our transition plan to net zero will lay out our pathway for investments and supply chain to also reach net zero by 2050, with an important intermediate goal of a 50% reduction by 2030. Let me sum up with some final conclusions. We've made a strong start towards achieving our medium-term profit growth target. With the opportunities available to our business, we have a unique opportunity to build substantial value for our shareholders. The DB market opportunity is multi-year and provides a very significant growth avenue for Just. All the ingredients for us to be successful in that space are there. That will be complemented over the medium to longer term, where the retail market, driven by demographic and proposition innovation, will become increasingly important to Just. We can only achieve strong performance when we have talented colleagues. We invest to grow our people, to develop a strong culture and build a high-performing team. This all combines to create what we call the Just way of working. Our performance has consistently exceeded the promises we made during the last 4 years by being innovative, focused, and disciplined. We execute and continue to deliver on our profit pledge, these same behaviors will be critical. We believe it's a winning formula and one that will ensure we can fulfill our purpose to help people achieve a better later life. Putting it all together, we're very optimistic and excited about the future for Just and what that brings. With that, we can throw the floor. Very quick on draw, Mandeep. You beat your boss. Mandeep, you go first. Mandeep Jagpal, RBC. Thank you for the presentation and taking my questions. Two from me, please. The first one is on new business returns. You mentioned the largest ever pipeline of GBP 6 billion, and we've heard similar commentary from other insurers in recent months as well. Given the level of demand and limited supply, are you seeing a pricing environment in bulk annuities where insurers are able to retain more of the economics of the transaction? Could we see in our performance versus the mid-teen IRR for new business? The second question on longevity, material release this year from updating assumptions, and Andy mentioned that the potential for further longevity releases going forward, what could the drivers of that be? For example, maybe from moving from the CMI 2022 model and subsequent models, as it appears the CMI will now be placing weight on the recent death data, having ignored it for the last few years. Great. Thanks, Mandeep. I'll take the first question on new business returns in DB market and Andy, I'll let you handle the longevity one. Clearly, yes, a very strong pipeline of deals, GBP 6 billion this early in the year is unheard of for us. That certainly helps us to continue to maintain our pricing discipline. Very, very conducive environment to deliver returns well in excess of our mid-teen return target. It's something which we've consistently done in the past, and all the indicators are very positive for 2023 and you'd imagine beyond. Andy, longevity? Yeah, long-longevity, yeah, always was an interesting topic. Our effectively our longevity assumption change, we decided on that before the latest CMI work started on CMI 2022. At the moment, we're using CMI 2021. That basically placed no weight whatsoever on the experience over 2021 or 2022. What we intend, what we aim to do was basically recognize that we are obviously seeing heightened mortality, and we expect that to at least continue in the short to medium term. Our assumption very much trends that back to pretty much the previous assumed longer term longevity. The work that's now ongoing has now come out in draft from CMI is actually looking at potentially placing about 25% weight on the 22-year experience, but actually bringing that into a view on longer term mortality. They end up with a higher longer term mortality level. or yeah. That if we flowed that through into our figures would give us a slightly bigger release than ours, but it's obviously quite a different shape in terms of, they assume quite a big reduction, but then effectively you won't ever hit the same trend as we had before. We'd be slightly above that all the way through into the future. We're looking at that at the moment. We've made no decisions on it. Yeah. Barry, do you wanna go next? Mix it up. Morning, it's Barrie Cornes at Panmure Gordon. I've got 3 questions, if I may. First of all, at 199%, is the coverage ratio perhaps too high now? Where would you like to see it? Would you have a range? What would you do if it remains elevated for a long period of time? Second question, just wonder, Andy, whether or not what the NTAV would have been if it was under IFRS 17. Would it been close to GBP 1.70 per share? The last question I had, just wanted giving David your confidence in the business going forward that you've talked about, and you live 19% growth in underlying operating profit, whether or not the figure of 15% is a little bit too conservative and maybe a harder figure might be appropriate. Thank you. Andy, I think I'll let you handle the first two on all this capital you've got and what would it look like in IFRS 17? Yeah. I think, I mean, obviously, where we are in terms of the capital ratio, we have been boosted a lot by interest rates. And clearly interest rates can be volatile. They could go down as well as up. We're conscious that in terms of where we've moved our hedging to, we now have sensitivity in that Solvency II position. That is certainly in our thinking. You know, we are looking at ways to bring the IFRS and Solvency II interest rate positions closer that we would have less of a differential between those, which I think would help with some of that. That's more in the future. At the level we're at at the moment, we believe that does give us, good flexibility, both in terms of the ability to support new business growth through, potentially not having to have all the assets on day one. And also potentially looking at things like warehousing longevity, that those sorts of things can give you a temporary hit on your capital ratio, where if you've got a higher ratio that's helpful to absorb that. Also for me, the economic outlook at the moment is quite uncertain. Again, having that higher ratio is helpful. If you put all of that together, we're quite comfortable with where we are today. Does that mean, in 5 years time, we'd still be saying we're comfortable at that level? You know, that's probably a bit of a crystal ball into the future. You know, I think, you know, certainly in the sort of short to medium term, we would, we would say that we were quite happy there. You know, equally, we were, we were happy 2 years ago when we were, in the 150s, 160s. You know, it's, it is a range and it can move around with economic volatility. The TNAV and IFRS 17. The TNAV and IFRS 17 will be broadly the same as we put out in January. We expect our TNAV under IFRS 17 to be broadly similar to where it is in under IFRS 4. That would still be the same for the year-end figures. On the underlying operating profit growth target. Yes, we just to recap, we made that pledge a year ago that we would deliver 15% per annum on average over the medium term. Clearly we've got off to a strong start last year. We're only in week 10 of 2023. There's still a funnel of doubt about where you'll end up over the year. At this point in time, clearly you'll have picked up from our comments. There's probably more upside potential than downside risk. Things can change. We're not gonna be updating that anytime soon 'cause it's a multi-year commitment. Certainly, very comfortable where we're sitting at this early in the year. 'Cause Larissa was a dead heat with Barry last time, so I'm gonna let her go next. Thank you. I'm Larissa van Deventer from Barclays. Two questions, please, both on profitability. The margin went down, you mentioned mainly due to interest rates. What will it take for that to get back up to 8% sustainably? On the new business strain, what do you see as the single biggest factors impacting that? Is it sustainable at these low levels? Thank you. Andy, do you want to... Probably both for you, Andy, talking about how we're thinking about the new business margin going forward and both and the new business strain too. Yeah. As, as I explained, the new business margin movement is very much a mechanical movement that comes very much just from the higher long-term discounting of the cash flows that we're getting on the annuities. As such, if, interest rates don't move around much, then I would expect it to stay broadly where it is at the moment. You know, that we've not given particular guidance on that because we don't actually know where interest rates will go. If they continue to increase, then you could see that margin might reduce a bit. We get an offset for that then in getting a higher return on our surplus assets. We've not guided because those two broadly offset, and then you get the same underlying operating profit sort of result coming through. That hopefully gives us some guidance on the margin. In terms of new business strain, yeah, the reason and we've talked quite a lot in the past about why is our new business strain so low? How do we manage to achieve that? It is a combination of factors. It 's a big focus across the organization and we are very focused on maintaining that low strain. And the whole organization is sort of behind doing that. When we're looking at deals, when we're looking at investments, we're all trying to feed into achieving that low business strain, and continuing to achieve that. Clearly, if you look at our participation in the DB market, I think, we are, we're obviously playing very strongly in the lower, in the lower sort of portion of that, where we have a fair amount of repeat business. We have quite a lot of business coming through our quotation tool. You know, that tends to come with a slightly lower strain than some of the competitive processes. All of that contributes. You know, the fact that we've got the optionality also with the retail business is also helpful in terms of how we, how we move forward. You know, that, w e've obviously consistently beaten our 2.5% target. We still target the business on 2.5%. Mm-hmm. I think, you know, we've shown our ability to come in under that. It's key to our model going forwards in terms of how we grow sustainably, is that we continue to keep that strain low. The only thing I haven't mentioned is obviously partnering is the other optionality that helps to, we can use to reduce that strain. It's not crucial, but it's a lever we can pull. The other thing is to emphasize, bringing the two points together, and you touched on it, is the whole organization's really strongly aligned around profitable growth underpinned by low new business strain. That's been our mantra for the last three, four years. It's underpinned by all our remuneration, by all the internal communication, and we also put all the appropriate controls around that. We're very much aligned as an organization behind that. Andreas, I think you were next. Thank you. Andreas from Peel Hunt. Just going back to the cash from in-force, the GBP 174 million. If we assume no change in interest rates, and obviously you'll be writing more new business and the back book will run off. Net-net, assuming, again, no move in interest rates, how will that GBP 174 million evolve over the next three years? Will new business net off the unwind given the level of interest rates where we are today? Thanks. generally in normal times, that cash from in-force would grow by about mid-single digit every year with the growth in in-force. Clearly you've had quite a big reduction in that because of the interest rates rise through 2022. I think as you look going forward, you can expect to see that grow each year with... Given we're adding, more volume to the in-force every year from new business. Yep. Gordon, you were, I think you were next. Thanks. Gordon Aitken from RBC. Just a couple of questions, please. One on bulk margins again. I saw a chart last week from one of the consultants, where they talked about buy-in pricing has come down. It was gilts plus probably 60. It's come down to gilts plus 30 since the mini budget. I'm just wondering if you recognize this improvement in pricing and also what's happened, and that was to the end of the year, what's happened so far this year in terms of pricing. We're at gilts plus whatever. The second question on longevity. I mean, I'm going back a few years, but, I mean, the last time you had a big release, I remember it was all a bit confusing 'cause it turned out life expectancy had come down, but it was a negative, and it was an offset of two numbers. There was a, I'm gonna say GBP 30 million negative, and there was a positive GBP 70 million from reducing life expectancy on the annuity book, which was more than offset by a GBP 100 million negative from the lifetime mortgage book. The whole thing with that, you explained at the time, was under IFRS, you had to assume that that bit you were losing off the back end, you were, well, you were earning a sort of 6% yield, and all of a sudden you're earning a cash yield which was close to zero. Has that impacted the numbers today on IFRS? Also, is there any impact on capital? Okay. I'll let you pick up the moving parts and the assumption changes on both IFRS and Solvency II in a sec. In terms of buy-in pricing, more generally pricing in the DB market, it did jump around a bit in 2022. That was largely reflecting what was going on in the financial markets themselves and hence, for example, the spreads over swaps, which is key. That was available for us and our competitors to invest in. I wouldn't though overstate net-net the economic impact of those pricing levels that we've seen. It certainly in terms of the discipline we've been applying, we've been holding a pretty firm line. We've seen it improve a bit as you've gone into 2023 just 'cause of the sheer volume. That certainly helps. I wouldn't want to overstate the impact. Of course, increasingly it's buyout pricing that's becoming more important because more and more schemes are moving towards buyout in one jump rather than going through the steps of buy-in, particularly at the smaller end of the market where we've got that leadership position. Andy, on the assumption changes? The longevity assumption change, which was just over GBP 90 million in IFRS, about GBP 70 million in Solvency II. Effectively, that is the net of the impact of that assumption change on both the annuity book and the lifetime mortgages. If you just looked at the annuities, you'd probably be about 20% higher than that. That's not as big a swing as you saw before. I wasn't here when the assumption change went through previously, obviously then we probably had far bigger LTM book than we do today. Yeah. That's right. I think also the shape of the change is different now. We're making most of the change at the short end, which has less impact on the long-dated LTMs, which is where the negs kick in. We have a question online from Farooq. Jason, can you just have the mic, please? T hank you. Yeah. Farooq from JP Morgan. Three questions, David. How has the pressure on commercial real estate prices and the economic climate impacted the ability to source illiquids? And are spreads still stronger than traded credit? Number two, slide 10 suggests that GIfL applications are up. 30%-40% since January 2022. Is this a leading indicator of potential growth in this line, and what's the relative new business margin? Finally, question 3, are you able to give us some more proof points about your ability to compete and win in the larger scheme deals and compete toe-to-toe with the larger competitors? Okay. Andrew, I'll give you the real estate question. Or I think it's a more general question on illiquid spreads versus public markets at the moment. Let me speak to both GIfL and on larger schemes first of all. Yeah, so that graph is showing that we're seeing a noticeable tick-up in GIfL applications, and that will translate into sales over the coming weeks. Of course, that's not a leading indicator for the whole of 2023. That just kind of tells you the direction of travel right now, which is aligned with my comments earlier, that this is a market that's very much growing as both the headline rates have become more attractive. Also advisors are waking up to the value of providing a guaranteed income to their customers in these times of uncertainty. Very, very promising early signs there. Pricing margins are very attractive in the GIfL market at the moment. As I said in my comments, it just allows us more choice in how we deploy our capital between a very attractive growing DB market and a retail market that's springing back to life. Larger scheme deals, what can we do to convince you that we're going to continue being competitive? I guess it's just we'll keep winning them, is probably the short answer to that question. Of course, it's a lot of untapped potential for us here. I think we've done something like 2% of a market share on transactions of over GBP 250 million. It's not like we have to grow a lot in that overall market segment to deliver meaningful growth for us. As we showed in the slide earlier, we've had a gradual consistent tick-up in the average the largest case size we've done each year. We've just gone through half a billion GBP. We're quoting on deals in excess of 1 billion GBP now. We're getting good pricing feedback on those. We, we feel we're very competitive, but I think we'll just demonstrate it through delivery over the, over the periods to come. In terms of investment, so commercial real estate, yes, it was a more difficult market last year to achieve to get the returns that we wanted. You'll see that our volume of origination in commercial real estate was quite subdued last year. I think that's picking up a bit now, so you may see a bit more of that flowing through. It's almost, for me, it's that proof point a bit of the model that commercial real estate has reduced. Actually, we've seen increased private placements in particular through last year and also increased infrastructure. Those do move around. In terms of the overall spreads, we continue to see illiquid assets giving us a spread uplift over liquid assets. Obviously, what you have is less volatility about that. They won't tend to bounce around in quite the same way as liquid assets, particularly over the second half of last year, where spreads blew out a lot have come back in again. I'll come to you in a sec, Nick. Ria first, though. Thank you. Ria Shah, Deutsche Bank. Two questions for me. The first one's around the dividend. The 15% growth matched your medium-term ambition of growing the profits by 15%. Is that the policy that you're looking to hold going forwards? Second, the statement that you released in the morning talks about further optimizing the capital structure and the debt profile. Are you looking to reduce your debt stack any further this year or over the next few years? Great. Probably both for you, Andy, in terms of dividend growth plans. Yeah. Optimizing capital. In terms of the dividend, you know, clearly this is, given we only restarted the dividend last year, this was the first time we had the decision in terms of growth rate. We, our dividend policy is to have a growing dividend, and that is unchanged. Clearly, we needed to set a growth rate this year for the dividend. The board considered that and felt that given our confidence on the future and the fact that we've started the dividend at a deliberately low level, that we should have a reasonable growth rate on that. That setting that in line with our target, profit growth target, was appropriate at this point. In terms of further optimizing the debt, no particular plans to do anything in the near term on the overall debt financing. We've obviously got maturities coming up in 2025 and 2026, but it's likely that we would look when we get closer to that point at what we would need to do or what the optimal point would be to refinance those. Nick? Yep. Thank you. Morning. It's Nick Johnson from Numis. Two questions, please. Firstly, on ground rents, that appears to be really in the political spotlight again, and it feels like we could be getting some significant change to the leaseholder system soon. Could you just remind me how much of your exposure is residential and how much is commercial? In general, how you view risk, long-term risk to ground rent income? Sorry, that could be a bit of a red herring, just to cover that off, please. Secondly, you say you want to improve ROE. Just wondered where you want ROE to get to. Thanks. I'll do it both. In terms of I don't have the exact split on ground rents, but most of the ground rents we've been writing, particularly of late, have been more commercial ground rents than residential. We can come back to you with the exact proportions, but it's far more commercial. The residential ground rents that we do have, we've been very careful about in terms of making sure they wouldn't fall foul of any legislation changes. We're not expecting any particular challenges there. We continue... Well, we see it as a very good long-dated asset to back our annuity cash flows. In terms of ROE, yeah, we've only just got above our 10% target, probably not about to set another target, higher than that. We would be certainly looking to see that improve from the current 10.7% level. That's something that we are focused on trying to improve as we go forward. Great. Thanks for that, Nick. If you want more information on ground rents, our chief investment officer's at the back, so you can catch him afterwards, yeah. Anybody else? Marissa? Thank you. Quick last question. On the bulk annuity volumes that keep on coming up, do you face a capacity constraint at some point? If so, what is that constraint? actually, is there a constraint? Is that the question? Yes. Yeah. Is there a constraint? I think as we've kind of explored today, given the strength of our capital position and given the low new business strain that we're writing at, I think we've got quite a lot of flexibility on the rate at which we grow. We're very much focused on just though trying to write it at those attractive rates of return. For me, it's a very strong start to the year and very strong market conditions. We're not gonna get carried away and say we're gonna aim for a particular rate of growth this year. Ultimately, we want to deliver that 15% profit growth commitment. All the market forces are supportive and constructive in that direction at the moment. Great. I think that does take us to the end of the hour. Thank you very much for your attention and your support. Obviously, if you've got any other questions around the edges, you can chat to us now. Thank you very much.
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