Well, good morning. I think that video sets the tone for how we're gonna have a conversation today. Good evening to those in Australia as well. Clifford and I are going to do a presentation of the results as usual. Let me start out by saying that I'm actually very pleased with the performance of the bank and our positioning for the future, despite the macroeconomic environment, and I think you'll see that come through today. Let's jump straight in with the headlines on slide three. In the middle column, you'll see that we've delivered a RoTE of 10.3%. I think this is a pretty good outcome in a difficult environment, and is underpinned by a cost income ratio of 52%. On the left-hand side, you will see that we've also delivered NIM of 1.85%, our target cost savings of GBP 69 million, and a broadly stable cost outcome in line with the guidance that we gave. I think given the benefits of the higher interest rates on NIM and the progress on our cost-saving program, I'm actually pretty confident that we will deliver on our cost income ratio strategy over the next few years. Our unsecured and BAU business lending have grown by an average of 7%, our mortgage business has now returned to a net growth model in half two. It's also pleasing to note that our relationship deposits have grown 13% year-on-year. Our balance sheet, as you can see, is robust, with a very low arrears profile and a strong coverage ratio of 62 basis points. I believe we are really appropriately provisioned for the next phase of the economic cycle. Our CET1 ratio of 15% at full year 2022 is also in a strong position, and that reflects the ongoing delivery of statutory profitability. Given the overall strong performance and this capital surplus, the board intends to recommend a dividend of GBP 0.10 per share and a further buyback of GBP 50 million, bringing the total buyback for 2022 to GBP 125 million. That brings the combined dividends and buybacks to a total distribution for 2022 of GBP 267 million. I'm also pleased, if you look at the right, to be able to revise our guidance upwards. You can see our 2024 RoTE increasing to circa 11%. This increase will be underpinned by a cost income ratio of less than 50%. We will move to our CET1 range of 13%-13.5% by 2024. Our shareholder distributions will reflect that outcome. In short, we're delivering on growth, delivering on costs, and delivering on our digital initiatives. We have a robust balance sheet that I think will support our delivery of targeted growth going into 2023. Let me now turn to slide four and touch on the broader macro environment that will influence our performance next year. As you can see from these slides, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated over the course of the year and have highlighted the impact of the recent events on current economic forecasts compared to earlier in the year. I think you can see that the revisions show a deterioration in activity levels and a significant reduction in GDP expectations. Inflation is expected to peak in 2022, but decline thereafter. Rates, however, will remain higher for longer, and therefore GDP shows a downward trend. Although unemployment is forecast to rise, it remains low by historical standards. We have also noted the, as you have, the recent updates the Bank of England and from the OBR last Thursday, all of which the outputs of which remain within the range of expectations set out amongst our IFRS nine scenarios. Despite the negative forecasts, the one thing I would remind you, there are businesses that are performing and need to grow, homes that will be refinanced and purchased, and consumers will still consume goods. This is the sixth largest economy in the world. As I said, although this is a tough environment and despite our tightened credit criteria, I still expect our balance sheet to grow in 2023. Let me now turn to slide five and talk about this year's growth. We have seen good growth across our unsecured business, as we had forecast at the half year, our business bank and mortgage business both returned to net asset growth in the second half of the year. Starting on the top left, our credit card originations are up 49% using tighter affordability assessments, we now have an 8% market share. Moving down the slide, overall business lending was stable half on half, with net growth in BAU lending in half two equating to a 5% annualized growth rate. M-Track and the launch of Marketplace have supported this business growth and that offer it by offering time for SMEs insights and services to help them manage their business. On the top right, you will see that our mortgage business returned to an annualized growth rate of 1.2% in half two, and we're entering 2023 with a prudently positioned portfolio, which is largely fixed rate, has an average LTV of 53% and an average LTI of 3.2 times. On the bottom right, our PCA sales have continued to benefit from the Virgin Brighter Money Bundles which we've deployed, and our cashback offers for customers have been very competitive. I'm particularly pleased with the strong growth in relationship deposits, which have increased from 33% in 2019 to 53% of the overall deposit base. For businesses, our digital BCA proposition has generated 70% growth in our BCAs year-over-year. I think our rebranding of the legacy SME business is proving to be very successful, and we've seen 46 weeks of net inflow as of September, which is the longest period of continued growth in the last five years. Let me turn to slide six. Over the past year, we have successfully implemented our purpose-driven flexible model, the working model, and we are now rolling out our agile delivery model. I think this combination of flexibility and agility has led to an 11% increase in colleague engagement, and has really helped us to deliver the cost targets, to launch new digital customer propositions and, of course, to achieve profitable growth. Now, just as we're supporting the customers, through the challenging economic environment, we're doing likewise for colleagues. We provided most of our colleagues with a GBP 1,000 cost of living adjustment. Recently announced a significant pay rise of 10%, which will be delivered in two installments throughout 2023. Given the impact, as we know, of the higher energy costs and the cost of living dynamics, we've launched a dedicated cost of living hub for our customers. This hub is very practical. It supports customers who are worried about repayments. We're also proactively engaging with customers if they're exhibiting any signs of stress. As part of our effort to help customers, we're addressing what we've seen as a recent escalation in calls to contact centers, typically across our savings and mortgage products. We're investing in adding surge capacity to service this need, both in terms of staffing and, of course, technology solutions. It's important to say that all of these colleague and customer initiatives are fully embedded in our cost investment plans for 2023 and 2024. All priced into the model. Let me just turn to the future on slide seven. I think we intend to deliver several new innovative propositions in 2023, and the slide sets out some key highlights. Following an initial launch of Virgin Slyce with a wait list of 40,000. Our new buy now, pay better proposition will be made available to the wider public starting this month. This proposition has been designed by exclusively by Gen Z customers, and this is to suit their credit needs as first time entrants to the credit market. It's different than others because it demonstrates responsible lending by testing for real affordability. It provides transparency around the cost of credit and helps to build credit customer scores. That's key. This is in stark contrast to many other offerings in the marketplace. The other key is we are expanding our product profile. In quarter one, we will launch an ESG focused wealth proposition, offering customers a simple digital platform to manage their investments. We will add to our travel insurance, which we've recently launched with a proposition for home insurance in Q one. Lastly, in mortgages, we'll improve customer experiences through an end-to-end digitalization, and we'll that will drive benefits from greater flexibility on pricing. We'll roll out the direct digital model in Q one and the broker digital model in Q two. Finally, as we announced last year, I'm pleased to update that we intend to launch our digital wallet in 2023, and we will launch also a new V-App which offers an integrated view of all of our products and digital propositions. I'll provide a little bit more detail on these developments later in the presentation. For now, let me pause there and hand over to Clifford, who will take you through the financials in more detail. Thank you. Thanks, David. I joined us here at Virgin Money during lockdown last March. It's great to be present for the first time to present to you all in person alongside David. You'll recognize this slide from our half year results last year, around the time I started, which sets out our equity story. As you heard from David, we've made great progress on our strategic delivery underpinning this story. We've managed our balance sheet prudently, maintaining strong provision coverage and capital. We've now restarted shareholder distributions. Alongside resilience, we're making good progress digitizing the bank, delivering cost savings. Launching new digital customer propositions. Finally, we started to demonstrate our growth potential, accelerating from here, driving further profitable growth. You're seeing the results of this strategic progress in our developing financial track record set out on the next slide 10. David explained the growth in our targeted margin accretive propositions set out top left. This, together with the improving rate environment, has enabled a sustained expansion in our net interest margin, top right. With cost broadly stable, we've delivered strong statutory returns double-digit for the last two years, bottom left. As a consequence, we're generating capital and have restarted distributions through dividends and more recently, sustainable buybacks, bottom right. Now turning to the details of our full year 2022 performance. I'll comment on profitability first, then the balance sheet capital, and finally our guidance. I'm pleased to report here on slide 11 our strong underlying performance. Income improved 12%, reflecting the COVID recovery and higher rates, while costs remained broadly stable, reducing our cost income ratio to 52% from 57% last year. Together, this resulted in a substantial improvement in our pre-provision profit of 26%. Underlying profit was flat in the year, given the impairment release last year. Moving now to statutory profit on slide 12. You can see here we've delivered another year of strong statutory profit. Adjusting items were down year on year, and included a GBP 60 million charge for intangible assets, following a further review of capitalization practices aligned to our digital agile model. Restructuring charges were GBP 82 million, less than initially planned, as we've delayed the phasing of certain projects from 2022 to 2023. I'll discuss this in more detail later. The GBP 58 million tax charge equates to an effective tax rate of around 10%. This was low due to our recognizing previously unrecognized historical losses. Going forward, we expect an effective tax rate in the mid-20s from full year 2023 onwards as there are now no more unrecognized historical trading losses. Finally, it's particularly pleasing to see the step up in tangible net asset value to GBP 3.83 per share, reflecting the statutory profit in the period, a lower share count given our share buyback, and positive reserve movements. These positive movements reflect the fact that our cash flow hedge swaps are currently net pay fixed, meaning the sharp rise in rates in the second half has resulted in large gains on the swaps flowing through to equity. We're including additional details on this in the appendix. I'll now talk through the key balance sheet items from slide 13. David updated on our strategy to grow relationship customer base further with deposits now 53% of total deposits. Our strong performance has helped us maintain our cost of deposits year-on-year, despite much higher policy rates. We've also successfully accessed the wholesale markets this year, despite challenging market conditions. The combination of our ability to grow our relationship franchise while maintaining our presence in the wholesale markets, gives me confidence that we will emerge a winner in the post-QE environment. Looking ahead, we'll continue to target growth in our relationship deposits. We'll also participate in the market for term deposit funding where and when it's advantageous to do so. We'll continue to access the wholesale market to maintain a diversified funding base. Now moving on to lending on slide 14. David explained our targeted growth in unsecured and business as usual business lending. I'm pleased with our progress this year, shown by the details on this slide. You'll see here that we have increased overall volumes with strong growth in unsecured, offsetting a modest reduction in business and with mortgages stable. In our mortgage business, we took advantage of stronger spreads in Q4 to grow prior to the September rate volatility. You can see that we also delivered growth in business as usual book in the second half of the year, offsetting ongoing reductions in the government-backed balances. I'm particularly pleased with our growth in unsecured, reflecting prudent growth in our high-quality cards book. Looking forward, we'll continue to diversify the balance sheet and grow overall lending balances in full year 2023. Having grown the mortgage book in the second half of this year, we expect to deliver further modest growth in full year 2023. In business, we expect to grow in the business as usual book next year, whilst government-backed balances will continue to run off. In unsecured, we'll look to take further market share, but expect growth to slow, reflecting our tightened affordability criteria. Moving now on to our margin performance on slide 15. I'm really pleased with our net interest margin performance shown here. Over the year, we've added 23 basis points to NIM, reflecting our gearing to higher rates, in particular, the benefit of our structural hedge, where we have reinvested balances that roll off each month at higher rates, and also improved deposit margins from a low level of rate pass-through on our deposit balances. Set against that, this year, we've written mortgage business that spreads below the back book, which is a headwind to margin. In full year 2023, we expect NIM to be between 185 and 190 basis points. This guidance incorporates higher average interest earning assets as we expect to hold an extra GBP 2 billion of liquidity through full year 2023 for collateral inflows and higher requirements. Our guidance reflects current rate expectations, which have stabilized at a lower level since September, and following the Chancellor's Autumn Statement last week. With five-year swaps currently around 4% and base rates expected to peak at around 4.5% next year. In terms of moving parts to that guidance, they reflect tailwinds from the structural hedge reinvestment, deposit margins and asset mix. Offsetting these by headwinds from mortgage spreads, which we expect to remain tight, higher wholesale funding costs, and the additional liquidity I talked about earlier. I'll now talk through our rate sensitivity further on the next slide. We set out here our structural hedge alongside our rate sensitivities. You can see on the left that our structural hedge has driven, and will continue to drive, sustainable NIM expansion. As one-sixtieth of the hedge rolls off per month and is reinvested at current higher rates. The yield on the hedge increased from 30 basis points at the start of the year to around 70 basis points at the end. With reinvestment rates around 4%, the total yield will continue to rise. On the right, we've set out our current interest rate sensitivity using our standard pass-through assumptions. The year one impact reflects the benefit of reinvesting the structural hedge at higher rates since we assume a parallel shift in rates. There's also some additional benefit in year one from lead lag as managed rate assets contractually reprice before managed rate liabilities. The benefit in years two and three relates entirely to the rollover of the structural hedge, which builds up meaningfully over time. In practice, we benefited more significantly from recent rate rises as deposit pass-through has been lower than that assumed in these sensitivities. You'll note our rate sensitivity remains positive in year one, even in the 25% down scenario, and this reflects our assumptions on product pricing from a more elevated rate deck stack today. I'll now move on to non-interest income on slide 17. Our non-interest income performance was strong, up GBP 20 million year-over-year, excluding fair value and one-off gains. This performance was supported by higher customer activity, including interchange and account fees following the easing of lockdown restrictions. Over time, we're targeting further growth in OOI as we see contributions from the various initiatives we've set out on this slide, including the new digital pro-propositions which David mentioned earlier. Turning now to costs on slide 18. Our first update on our cost performance, and then on our restructuring costs. We've delivered broadly stable underlying cost this year, as promised. A good performance given the challenging backdrop. Our cost programs are delivering savings as we digitize the bank, enabling us to absorb inflation, grow the business, as well as incur digital development spend. We set out our multi-year investment program last year, and you can see on the right we've made good progress this year, delivering around GBP 70 million of annualized growth savings at a cost of around GBP 80 million. We have shifted some initiatives into full year 2023, which has reduced the level of restructuring spend this year and related savings. As David described, following COVID, and given interest rate volatility, we've seen more customers in our stores and wanting support from our contact center staff. Longer- term, our digitization plans remain in place, we're here to support and reassure our customers, and that's reflected in the pace of our change as well as our cost outlook, which I've set out on slide 19. We've updated this outlook slide from last November. As a reminder, our primary target is to deliver a cost income ratio of less than 50% by full year 2024. In November last year, we set out our ambition to deliver around GBP 175 million of gross cost savings between 2022 and 2024, at that time expected to reinvest around half in growth and inflation, then expected at low single digits per annum. It's clear that inflation and inflation expectations have stepped up since November last year. In addition, we face cost headwinds due to increased customer activity reflecting interest rate volatility and cost of living challenges. Nonetheless, we have considerable cost headroom. That is, we expect cost savings will continue to offset inflation and grow through full year 2024. For full year 2023, specifically, we expect cost to be broadly stable relative to full year 2022, notwithstanding double-digit inflation. At the same time, our outlook for income has strengthened relative to our expectations last year, supported by the higher rate environment. Taken together, we're confident in achieving our full year 2024 cost income ratio target, and for full year 2023 expect to deliver around 50% cost income ratio. Now moving on to our asset quality on slide 20. You saw we reported a modest cost of risk this year of around seven basis points. That performance reflects our solid credit quality, which has remained resilient with low arrears and default levels through the financial year, with some normalization more recently. On the left, we set out our ECL over time. You can see that we started the year retaining significant COVID related post-model adjustments. Given our experience through the year, we've now released these. At the same time, we've increased our model provision, reflecting the deterioration in the macro environment. We also now have in place targeted PMAs relating to potential cost of living impacts for both our retail and business customers. The net impact of all of this is that at a headline level, total provisions have reduced somewhat from full year 2021. Nonetheless, we remain very well provisioned with coverage above pre-pandemic levels, as you can see on the chart on the right. At this stage, our best judgment for full year 2023 is for our cost of risk to normalize around the through the cycle level, which we consider to be 30-35 basis points. While our credit quality indicators remain benign, we're well positioned for uncertainty that lies ahead, as I'll now explain on slide 21. David has spoken about the quality of our book, and you can see here why we're comfortable with our resilience. Starting with our overall portfolio, top left, and cycling through. Our total portfolio is defensively positioned with balances strongly weighted to mortgages, which comprise around 80% of loans. Our mortgage book is a low risk prime book, weighted towards owner-occupied, originated with strict affordability assessments, and with only 3% above 80% loan to value, and largely on fixed rates. In unsecured, underwriting criteria are prudent, and we've tightened further during the second half of 2022 to reflect affordability stresses on our customers. Our unsecured customers are generally more affluent. Their retail spend has picked up over the last year and continues to be weighted to discretionary or luxury items. Their repayment rates have remained stable, all indicators of credit quality. Our business portfolio remains well diversified with strong collateral levels and skewed to lending to the resilient sectors. We've provided additional details in the appendix, demonstrating the underlying strength of each of our portfolios, which gives us confidence in the current economic climate. Turning now to capital generation on slide 22. Our capital generation has been robust this year, reflecting solid statutory profits and stable RWAs, with 195 basis points of underlying capital generation. Excluding the software benefit from the opening capital position, we grew our CET1 capital by around 60 basis points, achieved despite 90 basis points of shareholder distributions. We were very pleased to announce our capital framework at half year and started buybacks alongside our 30% dividend payout. In full year 2022, we've announced total distributions equivalent to 57% of statutory profits after AT1, through a combination of dividends and buybacks, including the additional GBP 50 million buyback announced today. Altogether, we finished the year at 15% CET1 ratio, well above our target range, which I've set out on the next slide. On this slide, you can see our target capital range of 13%-13.5% CET1 ratio, and we expect to stay above 14% in full year 2023, reflecting current economic uncertainties. That includes an expected GBP 1 billion-GBP 1.5 billion additional risk-weighted assets from the implementation of the hybrid mortgage models in the first half of 2023. We expect to operate within our target range at full year 2024. Relative to the top end of our range, we currently have around GBP 375 million of surplus capital before future capital generation. That means further sustainable buybacks alongside dividends through full year 2023 and 2024, starting with the GBP 50 million buyback extension that we announced today. We expect any further buybacks beyond that in full year 2023 to be aligned to Q4, given the stress testing timetable this year. The extent of further buybacks will depend on profitability, RWA growth through full year 2024 and regulatory approval. I'll conclude with our guidance on slide 24. We've summarized here our guidance for full year 2023 on the left and upgraded our outlook for full year 2024 on the right. We've mentioned the various details through the course of this presentation. Our guidance reflects a realistic and up-to-date outlook for inflation being elevated through 2023 and possibly beyond, as well as interest rates, where medium-term swap rates have reduced and stabilized in recent weeks despite rising base rates. In full year 2023, we expect NIM to remain strong on a larger balance sheet, with further improvements in the cost income ratio alongside higher impairments to around through the cycle levels. We remain committed to distributing surplus capital, though we'll remain to maintain a CET1 ratio greater than 14% during full year 2023. Turning to the medium term and full year 2024 on the right. We're committing to our targets which we set out in November 2021, including a return on equity target of above 10% for full year 2024 and a cost income ratio of less than 50%. Inflation rates are clearly structurally higher than last year, and the macro outlook is weaker. While we're not specifically guiding, it's fair to say that our income outlook for full year 2024 is stronger than we thought last year. With our cost programs on track, we remain confident that we'll deliver a less than 50% cost income ratio in full year 2024, notwithstanding higher cost inflation. Finally, we expect to operate within our target capital range by full year 2024, enabling further buybacks. Taken together, while our return on equity target remains greater than 10%, we're pleased to confirm our statutory RoTE guidance in full year 2024 of around 11%. Overall, it's been a strong year for Virgin Money and our outlook is positive. I'll now hand back to David. Great. Thank you, Clifford. As I mentioned earlier, we intend to launch our digital wallet and begin to roll it out across the wider Virgin ecosystem. We're working closely with the team at Virgin Group, and I'm very excited about the potential of this initiative. Just to put it in context, let me now introduce a short video to help bring it to life. Feel like I'm in a trap. Alright, alright. Everything is random, but anything to stop us all. Alright, alright. Ooh, feel so electric. Ooh, I'm gonna get it. Ooh, feel so electric. Alright, alright. I am who I wanna be, who I wanna be, who I wanna be. I am moving to the beat, moving to the beat, moving to the beat. I'm not strong in the physical, feeling that power. power. I'm gonna get to know you, sing it louder. I am who I wanna be, who I wanna be, who I wanna be. I who I wanna be. I am moving to the beat, moving to the beat, moving to the beat. I'm not strong in the physical, feeling that power. I'm gonna get to know you, sing it louder. I am who I wanna be, who I wanna be, who I wanna be. I am moving to the beat, moving to the beat, moving to the beat. I'm not strong in the physical, feeling that power. I'm gonna get to know you, sing it louder. I am who I wanna be, who I wanna be, who I wanna be. I am. Ooh. Yeah. I am. Ooh. Yeah. I am. Ooh. Yeah. I am. Ooh. Yeah. Ooh. Yeah. I am. Yeah. I am. Yeah. I am. Yeah. I am. Feel so electric. I'm gonna get it. Feel so electric. Alright, alright. I am who I wanna be, who I wanna be, who I wanna be. I am moving to the beat, moving to the beat. I'm not strong in the physical, feeling that power. I'm gonna get to I'm gonna get to know you, sing it louder. I am who I wanna be, who I wanna be, who I wanna be. I I am. Ooh. Yeah. I am. Video is intended to show you the design that we have and how it's going to be deployed across the Virgin Group. When we acquired Virgin Money and created a single brand across Clydesdale and Yorkshire banks, we knew the potential of the brand and its application in the U.K. I think we've seen that realized over the past four years, especially as we've delivered our digital products. Now, we intend to unlock the power of the Virgin Money brand across the wider Virgin Group of companies. To date, our customers have already benefited from partnerships with the likes of Virgin Experience Days, Virgin Wines, Virgin Media, and of course, Virgin Red. This new digital wallet capability is the next logical step in deepening those relationships and leveraging the wider Virgin ecosystem. Our partnership with Virgin Red and the broader Virgin Group, in my mind, represents a significant competitive advantage. Ultimately, we will aim to deliver the digital wallet capability to as many of the 47 million customers across the Virgin Group as possible, with a focus initially on the Virgin UK 18 million customers. The other side of this is we also expect to be able to acquire new customers as the Virgin Group itself grows and expands their businesses. We expect that we will have several group companies using a fully functional wallet by late 2023, and we will publish some anticipated growth metrics at that time. Let me now turn to slide 27. This slide sets out how our digital strategy is taking shape to try and bring it all together. We have delivered a wide range of products and propositions this year and have a busy delivery agenda in 2023. On the left, you can see how we're growing our customer base with digital delivery. In the middle, you can see the new initiatives that are going to accelerate this growth. On the right, you will see our plan to develop a new Virgin app, which we are now calling the V-App. In the future, this Virgin FinTech style app will house the wallet, which you've seen, and the existing apps like Virgin Money, the Credit Card, and the Mortgage Coach, et cetera. This app will also house any new products like Slyce, which you've seen, as well as our wealth and insurance products. Simply put, our customers will be able to access all services, products, and benefits and offers from Virgin Money and other Virgin Group companies in one simple app. The V-App and the new wallet are funded within our current investment profile, and the wallet is in beta testing with our customers. The V-App is currently under development, and we expect to launch the beta version later this year. Our journey to delivering on our digital-first strategy is well underway, and this next phase will create a unique competitive capability which combines our technology, the Virgin brand, and the opportunity to grow our customer base by leveraging the worldwide Virgin companies in addition to those in the U.K. Let me now turn to the final slide. As we bring this presentation to a close, just a quick recap. As I said, we have a strong balance sheet and good momentum going into 2023. We will, of course, maintain a prudent risk appetite, as Clifford has talked about. We will engage on a proactive basis to support any customers that face difficulties. Although the environment, we all know will be challenging, we remain of the view that we can deliver targeted growth across all of our products. This is especially true, I think, given our brand, our digital momentum, and the partnership with Virgin Group. We are accelerating our digital capabilities, as you can see, to support this targeted growth, and we expect strong NIM performance from a combination of higher rates and mixed optimization. At the same time, though, we will continue to manage our costs to deliver, as Clifford said, on a net cost-income ratio of below 50% in 2024. We're obviously also on target to deliver a statutory ROCE of circa 11%, as Clifford said, and we will return to our target CET1 range of 13%-13.5% over the next two years. It's our intention to maintain our distribution strategy and mix as we return excess capital. Okay. After our questions today, so we've come to the end, you'll be able to pick up a QR code from the lobby, and that will provide access to demo videos of the wide range of digital products we have, including the digital wallet. We'll also make them available to those who aren't in the room via email shortly. That concludes the presentation. Thank you for your attention, and we'll now open up to questions. I think, Richard, you're going to... Oh, oh. There should be some microphones around. Oh, we have one straight away down here. Down here in the front, middle. We could throw them to you. Thank you. If you'd thrown it, I would have dropped it. Thank you. Thank you very much for the presentation. I wonder if I could ask a couple of questions just on the guidance for next year. There's clearly a lot of moving parts in a lot of the P&L lines. Firstly, on the margin, Clifford, you mentioned you expect tight mortgage spreads. Those have been quite volatile, particularly in the last 2 months. I guess firstly, you know, Virgin, the Virgin Money brand's pulled out of the market for a short period of time. If you could explain a little bit exactly what was going on there, and then what's happened to spreads over the last couple of months, and then what's embedded in your margin guidance in terms of mortgage spreads for 2023. That'd be the first one. Then on costs, again, if you could just help us break down, I guess, the moving parts. For example, you mentioned 10% wage increases implemented through the course of 2023. How should we think about underlying inflation, moves in terms of costs? Then, how much of the remaining GBP 105 million cost savings do you expect to deliver in 2023? Then offsetting that, how much to be reinvested? Thank you. Thanks. Clifford maybe will make one comment, but if you could cover the mortgages and the cost dynamics. You mentioned there that we pulled out of the market and what was going on there. I think the entire market had pulled out within three days. I don't think we were exceptional. We were amongst the first back in, and then the entire market was in within three days. I think that was just market behavior at the time, so nothing specific to that at all. Maybe on the margins, Clifford, and on the cost dynamics as well. Look, we've seen strong margins in mortgages maybe a year or two ago, margins really quite squeezed up until the summer. As swap rates moved up and customer rates struggled to keep up, you saw that margin squeeze. I think encouragingly, we saw some normalization of spreads during the summer ahead of the September volatility. Spreads really quite low prior to the summer, maybe low tens. Spreads normalizing through the summer towards three figures. Spreads really tightened as swap rates spiked around the mini budget. That caused that volatility in the market and the behavior that David indicated. As swap rates have come down, you've seen mortgage rates start to come down, but at a slower pace, spreads normalizing. Our expectation for full year 2023 is, I'd call it more normal spreads, you know, ± 100 basis points, getting towards that level. Still a dilution on our book mortgage spreads, which are in excess of that, I think in common with the industry. I think hopefully that gives you a feel for what we're seeing on spreads. I think as swaps have stabilized, I think that gives time for the market to normalize as so all players deliver appropriate returns. I think around costs, you know, we're pleased to announce our 10% pay review figure. That's paid in 2 installments, 5% and 5%. The net impact of that is an average of a 5% pay rise in our full year 2023. That's a primary driver of, call it, inflation for us and others, which is pay. A number of our other costs are fixed, at least in the short term. Property, for example, some of our longer- term contracts. We do see inflation coming through some of our third party suppliers that will fade, that will phase in over time. What we're expecting in 2023 and 2024 is continued progress on our cost income ratio. We're really focused on cost income. As we said last year, that's our primary target, and I've reconfirmed this today. It's cost income ratio where inflation and rates move somewhat in tandem. That's what we're focused on, and that's what underpins our ROE guidance for full year 2024. Having said that, we did indicate broadly stable costs in full year 2023 because we wanted to give a feel for where we're coming out. You can see for us that means plus or minus low single digits. But we're comfortable given the progress we're making on our cost, the momentum, the pipeline we've built up, we're comfortable that we can absorb growth and that wage inflation and other inflation at least for full year 2023. Thank you very much for that. Just on the cost savings, you generated GBP 70 million so far, the target's GBP 175 million. I think previously you'd said you'd expect to reinvest about half of it. That's right. You've done a little bit more than that so far, but by like, Well, I guess that's inclusive of inflation, but so how should we think about that GBP 70 million progressing in 2023? Yeah. I won't give a guide on that phase. I mean, we did say last year that costs would be broadly stable in full year 2022, so we're very clear on that, given the shifts in our amortization. We're making good progress on our cost savings. The figure of 175, the way we quote it, is gross annualized. Now that earns through, and you can see it's earned through GBP 70 million already in full year 2022. We expect to earn through further savings in 2023 from the work we've done previously, as well as future work, and that gives us confidence regarding our cost income ratios. We won't be guiding specifically on nominal costs for 2024. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. We have over here to the left. Morning, it's Andrew Coombs, Citi. One slightly technical question and one much simpler question. Cash flow hedges. Can you give us an idea of the pool to par effect and what's baked into your 2024 RoTE for the cash flow hedges? That's the first question. Second question is much simpler. 15% quarter one ratio. You're guiding to 13%-13.5% in 2024. Why have you only announced a GBP 50 million buyback? Why not a lot more? Great. Thank you, Andrew. Do you wanna pick up the first one, Clifford, on the hedges? Yes. I'd point you to page 48 in the presentation pack. We've indicated that the cash flow hedge reserve increased around GBP 700 million year-on-year. You can see we've fleshed it up there. We've also guided at the penultimate bullet that we expect average balances in the cash flow hedge to decline to less than GBP 250 million. There's some dilutive effect of the cash flow hedge in 2024, around 50 basis points, but it's much more modest. Clearly that could decline quicker or slower depending on where rates are, and we've used current rates in how we've guided here. If I just pick up on the, on the buybacks, Andrew. I think it's a judgment call. We're in a, an uncertain environment. We're very clear that we will get to our target rate of capital in 2024, and we are clear that we are migrating there with 14% in 2023. We're sort of saying let's take a path to a very substantial distribution, but we felt that this was the right judgment at this time on that journey. I guess in your judgment, and you're talking about potential for substantial distributions, just use your own word then, what would you need to see either in the second half or going into next year in order to pull the trigger on that substantial potential? Do you wanna go, Andrew? Yeah. I think there are a few things. We thought it was helpful to say our, frankly, our expectations remain above 14%. We wanted to sort of bracket expectations, because the current world is uncertain. I think all the usual things that you'd expect. We wanna be confident regarding RWAs. We flag hybrid and the Basel 3.1 consultation. I think we'll have made, you know, very good progress on all of that through the back end of this year. We flag the stress testing, which is well underway. In terms of, I think IFRS 9 is something we're all still working with, although it's been in operation for a number of years. I think the expectation is IFRS 9 will look ahead in terms of booking provisions. You can see we've seen some of that already. I think a stable outlook, perhaps and even a positive outlook, is something that would give any board confidence in meaningful buybacks. We've given this two-year timeframe because we feel that there's every expectation that this next recession will have run its course, and particularly with IFRS 9 will have crystallized those impairments up front. You know the surplus. We've given you guidance on ROE, we've given you guidance on RWAs. I think that should give you a feel for what will likely be substantial buybacks over the course of this next two years. Thank you. Thank you. I think we have one over here, just in the third row. Thank you. Hi, Grace Dargan from Barclays. Just on your ROC for 2024, why could that not be in 2023? I guess what are the key risks maybe to that happening sooner, aside from just backdrop? Then maybe secondly, just touching back on the capital and buybacks. Thinking about RWAs, are you concerned about pro-cyclicality into next year? Is that part of the uncertainty? I guess if so... How should we be thinking about that? Thank you. Thanks, Grace. Yeah, I think we've guided to 2024 consistently from last year because we see that as a, well, a normal year. I think there are two things. One is the our restructuring program, which would be very largely done by 2024. We said the substantial part of the remaining restructuring costs will be incurred in 2023. Expect some in 2024, but meaningfully lower, more normal. That's one factor. I think the other factor is, look, impairments. We've guided to 30%-35% cost of risk in 2023. I would say we're not gonna guide to 2024 as of today, but there's, you know, there's real uncertainty around what 2023 would be. I think it's reasonable to assume cost of risk would normalize in 2024. That's the basis of our 11% guidance. Thank you. Thanks, Grace. One follow-up to RWAs. Yeah. I think on RWAs, we, given our approach, we feel that our RWAs are quite resilient. We're not expecting material sort of credit migration. I think the hybrid model by design is more resilient, and we've guided to some step up there, and I expect it to be resilient after that. We're on the standardized approach for unsecured cards. We're on the foundation approach for business. While our RW intensity might be a bit higher than some other banks, the consequence is it's a bit more resilient to adverse movements in the credit environment. We're not immune, but that should give you a bit more confidence in sizing that, those possible buybacks. Perfect. Thank you. Thanks, Grace. Down here, I think. Oh, here we go. Yes, good morning. Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs. Could I ask two question, please? One on risk to loan growth and second on pricing in unsecured. I was just wondering, I mean, thank you for the disclosure about the affluent SKU in terms of your cards book. I was just wondering, could there be a situation or risk that part of this cohort of more affluent clients use some of the excess savings which have built up since the pandemic to repay some of the mortgage debt, some of the credit card debt, and could this impact the outlook for loan growth in 2023, 2024? Secondly, I was just wondering if you could comment on how pricing trends have evolved in terms of unsecured, so both personal lending and credit cards. Thank you. Great. Maybe I'll pick up the first point, and then Clifford can talk about pricing. I think the reality is we haven't seen any of those behaviors in terms of a prepayment model. We see the affluent customers in the card book tend to have the sort of substance that you've seen in the slides of their spend on discretionary and more luxury items. They may taper back some of the luxury end or make a little bit of a cut. I would see slower growth, which is how we've targeted it next year, rather than repeating what was a very high growth rate last year. I think we're anticipating that slowdown in growth, but still net growth. To date, none of those behaviors have manifested throughout the book. We'll watch it closely. On cards, we have seen some repricing to date, and we've done some. We're a big player in the balance transfer business, as you know, and our leading rate now is two years down from over 13 months before the summer. We've seen the competition sticking around there, I expect it to come down to the sorts of levels that we've been delivering. We've also seen some pickup in the headline APR rates from some of our competitors, including us. I think it's fair to say though that the unsecured market clearly responds slower than the mortgage market. Thank you very much. Thanks. Oh, over here. All right. Sorry. Thanks so much. It's Ed Firth from KBW. I'm going to ask you about acquisitions, because obviously you've got a lot of surplus capital now. There are a number of banks around that don't have a lot of capital. Then there are other books available and various other bits and pieces, and we're starting to see a lot of talk of inorganic growth amongst other banks. I just wondered how you look at that. You know, are you interested if other books are available, particularly books trading at a discount? Are the banks available? You know, what's your general sort of feel internally? Yeah. I think we've tried to be relatively consistent, Ed, on this over the past. I think what we're not a fan of or focused on is large complex acquisitions. I think the value of the Virgin acquisition was a more simplistic integration without all the current accounts, et cetera. We sort of would be open-minded if we saw small bolt-on or things which were, you know, specialist, which were complementary to our portfolio, but it's very much that spectrum. Right now, even with that said, we're not actually focused on that. We're really focused on the digital leverage and the performance which we have as an underlying momentum. Not a big focus for us and certainly not at the complex end. Do we have to- We'll go to the phone lines. Yep, we'll go to the phone lines now. Our first question comes from Ed Henning of CLSA. Ed, please go ahead. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Can I just ask a couple of questions on the margin? Clifford, thank you for the disclosure today. Can you just give us a little bit more on the deposit pass-through rate? You talked about being low obviously in this half. You know, how much are you anticipating that to pick up in 2023? Also, what have you assume for the yield curve rolling through there in 2023? As first question please. I'll get on to a second one. Thanks, Ed. Clifford? In terms of the interest rate assumptions, I would say we're bang up to date in terms of consensus. Our view on base rates is peaking at 4.5% next year, next calendar year. The five-year swap rate, it's around 4%, so a little bit lower than that today. It's anticipated by the market to be sort of flattish and then come down at the end of next year. I think you can run your own assumptions and models based on the sensitivities we've given. We think it's helpful. My view is things will stabilize or have stabilized at this level. You know, it'll all depend on news flow. I think it's clear that the Chancellor was looking for stability. In terms of pass-through, we set out the sensitivities. Our pass-through assumption in those sensitivities is around a third. We evolve our pass-through assumptions depending on where rates are. The rates are a little bit higher than they were last year. I think it's fair to say our pass-through has been less than that in this last phase of the cycle. I'm not gonna speculate on whether we'd catch up or meet or exceed those pass-through assumptions. I think you can make your own assumptions. Do you have more questions? Okay. Yep. Yeah, yeah, I do. Thank you. Sorry, just the phone line just broke up there. The second question is, you look at slide 19, you can see, you know, strong income growth rolling through in FY 2024. If you look at slide 24, you run through income driven by NIM expansion, non-interesting growth rolling through there. Can you just give us a breakdown of how you're thinking about that and how you're thinking about the expansion, especially if you're using the yield curve? I imagine the yield curve starting to come back in 2024, so that'll create a headwind on your margin. You think that's gonna be offset by your product mix. Is that correct? I think broadly, yes. I think if you look at page 15, we've highlighted the drivers through 2023. I think while the swap curve went up, it's come back down again. Went up to sort of the five-year rate, went up higher than 5% and it's come back down to four. There's still a very considerable pickup between the roll-off of our structural hedge, and we talked about in my script, at 50 basis points versus the around 4% that we're currently seeing. Even rolling that forward, if that 4% starts coming down, there's still quite a pickup. We expect the NIM expansion to play through the structural hedge really for quite some time. That's very much a tailwind. I think we've also talked about average interest earning assets, those GBP 2 billion, and that's worth around four basis points. The 1.85%-1.90%, although our exit NIM of 1.86% is in the range, it'll be at the low end. We think is an upgrade on exit rate because the 1.85%-1.90% absorbs that four basis points of dilution from the liquidity. We've talked about deposit pass-through. The deposit margins reflect the pass-through that's in our assumptions of around a third. That will continue to be a tailwind as base rates rise through next year. I think the risk issues, I think we've discussed mortgage spreads are likely to be diluted through that period, given the solid spreads that we've got on the back book. We have confidence that we can grow some of those high margin areas that David talked to you throughout. I think hopefully that should give you a feel for our income and why we're comfortable reconfirming the less than 50% cost income ratio, notwithstanding cost inflation that we expect certainly in 2023, but also likely in 2024. No, that's great. Thank you for your time. Thanks, Ed. Any other callers on the line? Our next question comes from Benjamin Toms of RBC. Benjamin, the line is yours. Good morning, both, and thank you for taking my questions. Just one for me please on regulation. You flagged Basel 3.1 as a potential RWA headwind. Could you give any color on the range of potential outcomes from Basel 3.1? I think one of your peers, namely Paragon, has put a number on it based on certain state assumptions. Which parts of the regulation represent the biggest risk? Is it the treatment of buy-to-let? If it is buy-to-let, should we think about you being less impacted than some of the specialist peers as you have less landlords with five more properties? Which is the best guess of where this regulation could be rolled out at? Thank you. Thanks, Benjamin. Clifford? I think we've given guidance on the hybrid, the GBP 1 billion to GBP 1.5 billion possible uplift. That I think for that, for those folks who were around over the few years, we felt that was more benign impact a few years ago, but we've since seen the benefit of HPI reduce our RWA intensity. That GBP 1 billion to GBP 1.5 billion effectively, I would call it normalizes RWA intensity in mortgages. That's yet to go through the final regulatory process. I think it's fair to say buy-to-let is an area of risk that we, the regulator, are all focused on, certainly in this current cycle. I think buy-to-let is a headwind. Our book is roughly a quarter buy to let, to give you a feel. In terms of Basel 3.1, we're expecting the consultation paper out shortly. I think that would be implemented in two years. There are some pluses and minuses in what's mooted in terms of the individual initiatives that are proposed. I mean, we're hopeful that they net themselves out, but we don't know. We don't know particularly the sort of what the regulators view generally on capital might be going into this next cycle. I think as you're aware, there's a output floor proposed in terms of a phasing in of the percentage of standardized versus IRB and the higher of that. It's possible that that would become the binding constraint for us in a few years' time. We'll guide to that over the next year or two as details become clear. I mean, it's clear. In a previous role, we were constantly anticipating Basel IV, as we called it then. I think, what gives me comfort at Virgin Money is our RWA intensities are pretty moderate. I talked about standardized approach. The hybrid model will also restore it to a moderate, a more moderate RWA intensity. We're less vulnerable than perhaps some other banks, either here in the U.K. or in Europe, to substantial change from Basel 3.1. Richard, we have a question in the room. Do we stay on the lines first, or? Stay for this one here. Okay. Thank you. It's Aman from Barclays. Just one on capital. I think I was surprised last year to hear it and to hear it again. Could you just help me understand exactly what it is about the stress test that holds the key for distributions? Is it around your PRA buffer and how big that is? 'Cause I think when I look at your NDA, even fully factoring in the 2% countercyclical buffer, there is a big gap between your target. What, what exactly is it that the stress test unlocks for you? I mean, one comment is that the stress test results don't come out till the summer. You're front-running the regulator if you jump ahead of that. Whatever our judgment would be, I'm never that comfortable front-running a regulator. I think it's more of a logistics and timing. We tried to flag that at last time that the delay in the stress test mean that the results are September, we've guided to a full year disclosure of the buyback. It's nothing more than that. Is there any sense that the regulator needs to sign off on these kind of discretionary distributions? Do you need to get express permission from the regulator to do the buyback? Yes. I mean. Sure. David summarized it very well. We're very pleased with the results of our inaugural stress test. We'd said in June that we'd like to align buybacks to May after we had the stress test results. The Bank of England changed the timetable. We need explicit approval from the regulator for discretionary buybacks. David said, I mean, the time to get that approval is when the stress test has been completed or we're way early in the process, which is where we are now. Cool. Thank you. Thanks. Let's go back to the phone line. Sure. Our next question comes from Christopher Cant of Autonomous Research. Chris, please go ahead. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to think a little bit more about your 2024 RoTE guidance, please. A few niggly points around thinking about the TNAV to CET1 bridge, if I may. Clifford, you indicated on slide 48 that the sub GBP 250 million cash flow hedge reserve you expect in 2024 is based on current rates. I just wondered if you could clarify if you mean current market path for interest rates or 3% rates within that. Related to that point, on slide 47, you give us some disclosure around your pension. I think you're effectively telling us there that you already know the triennial for the end of 2022, and that that's now an actuarial surplus. Should we be assuming that there's no further funding contributions to be made now, given that you're in an actuarial surplus? Just trying to think about what the pension deduction might be in 2024. Finally, within the capital bridge intangibles, obviously you've had another IT adjustment. What should we be thinking about in terms of the CapEx rate from here? Should we be expecting intangible assets to be growing on the balance sheet between full year 2022 and 2024? If you could give us an indication of how much that might be, that would be very helpful. Thank you. Thanks, Chris. three questions there, Clifford. Yeah. In terms of the cash flow hedge, page 48, that reflects current yield curves. I gave the example of the five-year swap at 4% coming down, so not the base rate. I think on page 47, look, we're pleased with our trustee evaluation basis. You can see that purple bar of roughly GBP 250 million. That gives us sort of headroom, if you like, on valuation, but we need to see where that process lands. Not, not pre-judging, but we're comfortable, and we haven't made pension contributions this last year reflecting the strong position of the pension fund. I think the final question... Intangibles. Yeah. I think we won't give a specific guidance. What I can say is that over the last two years, we've very materially changed our approach to it, to capitalization and amortization. I mean, we've done the write-off this year and the one prior year. In the small print, you can see we've made it much harder to capitalize projects. We still will be capitalizing some projects, but they need to be very large projects, meaningfully more than our limits, which is around GBP 5 million. What I can say is that intangible will be well controlled going forward. We are also currently completing at least one big, big project which we flagged, which is our mortgage replatforming. A number of other changes that David's flagged today are really around evolving the overall technology landscape, which is built into our OpEx plans. That's really helpful. Thank you. If I could just ask one follow-up just in terms of the impact of your capital return plans when we're thinking about the shape of your balance sheet into 2024. Obviously, you're essentially telling us there's gonna be quite a big step down in the CET1 ratio into full year 2024, because all of your capital return for this year is gonna be pretty back-end loaded into the fourth quarter, potentially. I'm not sure how your buyback from the summer is. I think there's still a little bit that was running into November. This GBP 50 million's presumably gonna play out over a similar kind of period. Any buyback that you're announcing in full Q of 2023 in the wake of the stress test in order to get your CET1 ratio down into that range to operate in the 13-13.5% in 2024, that could be quite a large program and take quite a long time to play out. Presumably, your guidance into 2024 is 11% RoTE. Are you factoring in there running with quite large foreseeable capital deductions or foreseeable distribution deductions within that range from CET1 to TLAC? If you announce a big buyback in full Q of 2023, it will get your CET1 for the beginning of 2024. Actually, that deduction is probably gonna be in place for quite a lot of that year, just in terms of the pace at which you've been doing these buyback programs so far. Is that fair? Thanks. That's broadly right. I think I was just listening carefully. I think, you know, we flagged that we will consider buybacks at the end of full year 2023. So around 12 months from now. And we've set that 14% as the sort of lower limit. There's the possibility there, notwithstanding RWA headwinds. When we announce a buyback, we'll book the full impact of that on CET1. And I think that's becoming the more common treatment. And, you know, we've guided to getting into the range at the end of full year 2024. I mean, we're hopeful the recession will have played itself out to now then, but can't be sure. Our ROE guidance all reflects that. You can see that we are, you know, we're confident to upgrade our ROE guidance from 10%-11%. That we have, we've absorbed, if you like, the dilutive impact of the cash flow hedge. You know, rates are materially above what they were this time last year when we were guiding to a, to a floor of 10%. We think that's balanced guidance. We don't have a crystal ball, but we're confident in the sort of earnings power of the franchise into 2024. Okay. sorry, maybe I misheard you earlier in the presentation. I thought you were planning to be operating in the range during 2024, but you're expecting At the end. Effectively end of 2024. All right. Thank you. Our next question comes from Freeman of Macquarie. Josh, please go ahead. Josh, your line is open. Yeah. Can you hear? Hello, can you hear us? Yeah, we can hear you now, Josh. Josh, please go ahead. We may have to come back 'cause we can't hear you, Josh, whatever that is. Oh, one over here. Yeah. We'll give you one moment. Our next question comes from John Cronin of Goodbody. John, the line is yours. Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a quick one from me. It's on the buy to let book. Can you give us a sense of where interest coverage ratios currently reside broadly? Secondly, can you give us any sense of... Again, understanding that the portfolio is predominantly biased towards individuals with one property or fewer than four properties, I guess? Can you give us any kind of sense of the distribution of that or the percentage of the book that relates to professional landlord lending, for example? Sure, John. Thanks. Clifford, do you wanna take that? Yeah. I mean, the average buy to let interest cover is around 150%. In terms of our weighting, you know, our franchise is very much focused on those sort of smaller portfolios. We'll pick up the details separately, I think. Okay. Thanks. Should we come into the room here? Hi. It's Pardi, Pardimont from KBW. Can I just ask you one quick question on funding profile, really? I guess customer deposits come down in the half, but wholesale funding's gone up, and of which actually the biggest increase looks like TFS and TFSME. Obviously that is subsidized funding. I guess in this environment, there have been, you know, talks about, you know, banks taking subsidized funding on the one hand and then not passing it on to customers on the other hand, et cetera. I guess in the case that, you know, if that is, you know, run down or cut short or whatever it is, and you have to find more funding, I know you've increased, relationship deposits a lot, but historically, I think Virgin Money is relatively high up on the various, you know, league tables when it comes to sort of, fixed term savings, that sort of thing. Just wondering what your thoughts are on funding costs, going forward. Great. Thank you. I'll make one comment, and Clifford can take you through how we've done. Actually funding is one of the things I'm most pleased with in the bank, in the sense that our agility and tactical capability in the marketplace has been really strong. We did a significant amount of funding in the wholesale side through a very difficult market at very effective pricing. secondly, our sort of normal funding through PCAs and linked savings accounts, we did over GBP 1 billion last month, which is, you know, a record in terms of our capability. I think the encouraging thing is that we have a very powerful funding capability. Maybe, Clifford, you want to describe some of the dynamics for the question? There are a few things going on in 22. I'll talk about that and then talk about the future. Looking at actually slide 13, you know, as David said, we've been really pleased with the growth of our relationship deposits, that's current accounts, business, retail, and linked saving. There, the cost of funds is quite modest. We've let our non-relationship term deposits come down. You can see from September to September, that's come down. As a result, the total stock of deposits has come down, and we've let the wholesale market take the strain there. We have seen, I think, choppy market conditions through the fourth quarter. We've also seen, and I've talked about the requirement for incremental liquidity. We put the number on it, GBP 2 billion extra liquidity required, some of that coming in the form of collateral, but some of it reflecting increased liquidity requirements in the context of that. Accessing TFSME where markets are choppy is a sensible thing to do. We've also accessed the wholesale markets a number of times last year, and we were really pleased to see whether that's AT1 or RMBS or covered. We've been keen to demonstrate, you know, our wholesale franchise and have successfully done that. I think differentiated from many of the smaller banks, and we're very much by the wholesale market considered part of the bigger banks. This reflects the September 2022 position. I think going forward, we've talked about our wholesale. We'll be regular wholesale funding, issuers, GBP 1.5 billion-GBP 2.5 billion. We don't need more, you know, capital issuance in the short term. We'll have MREL to refinance. I think we are more cautious around wholesale market spreads, really post QE, and all of that we factored into our NIM guidance and our ROE guidance. Thank you. Next. Phone line's next. Josh? Our next question comes from Josh Freeman of Macquarie. Josh, please go ahead. Hi. It's Victor German here. Sorry, we had problems with the line earlier. I was hoping to see if you could maybe give us a little bit more clarity on the strategy around two observations you've made earlier throughout this call. One on your conservatism around not returning capital given uncertain environment, and at the same time, your desire to continue to grow your credit card book. Appreciate that, you know, you're saying that you're riding better quality lines, but still, it's a riskier part of the book. Is this the right time to continue growing that part of the book? If you're thinking about sort of the return profile, presumably at given where the stock is trading, it would be much more accretive for you to do the buyback as opposed to grow credit card. Maybe if you could give us a little bit of a sense of what sort of franchise value do you see in growing that part of the book? Thank you. Sure. I'll pick up some credit cards and maybe capital, so if we're to follow on from that, and we can talk about the risk profile. The credit card book, just to be very clear, is going to grow at a much lower level in our planning. We're not planning to achieve the levels that we had last year. You talk of being a much riskier book. It's actually a very affluent profile of homeowners with high incomes, and 80% of their spending is in the discretionary luxury category. We see a steady growth but small growth in that as opposed to very significant growth. I'm less concerned about that in terms of risk and also its impact on the overall buyback strategy. Cliff? Yeah. We're serious about our capital targets that we announced in June this year. We're committed to returning to within those guardrails. We need to do that over what we call a sensible timeframe, given everything going on. I think that's well understood. We've announced our second buyback today, you can see that the board, Dave and I are committed to buybacks. In terms of the returns we see on new business, we see good returns in the areas that we're targeting for growth in terms of SME business and cards. We talked about repricing earlier. We'll pursue moderate growth there, given, you know, the credit environments. We do see growth opportunity at attractive returns. Importantly, we see the business as a real growth franchise following the integration and rebranding. We've demonstrated some of that growth. We'll be realistic about growth. I think the thing that perhaps marks Virgin Money out in an inflationary environment, it's important to see some top-line growth, notwithstanding our efforts and progress around costs. Maintaining costs stable, which we've indicated in 2023, we're working quite hard. We'll continue to work hard in 2024 and beyond, but it's important to continue to open the doors, and we see opportunities to do that, and that will underpin our ROE guidance of 11% in 2024. Okay. Do you see much in terms of the cross-sell opportunities from growing your book? Sorry, was that cross-sell? Cross-sell. Yeah, I think that that's part of the mix for the future. We haven't quantified anything yet. As we look at the wallet rollout and look at the scale of the group, and we look at the opportunities that we see there over the next two years, certainly we're bringing the full offering of the group into our universe, and similarly, our universe into the full group ecosystem. There will be much more visibility in both directions, and I think there will be a cross-sell lift quite significantly over time, but we just haven't quantified that at this stage yet. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Pearce of Numis. Jonathan, please go ahead. Hello, good morning, both. Couple of questions. The first one, please, on the forward-looking provision. The base case has still got a little bit of GDP growth into 2023. Accepting the weighted average is more negative. If you were to revise lower some of the base case assumptions in the first or second quarter of this financial year, how are you thinking about that regarding the interplay with PMAs? I mean, I note in the footnote on page 45, I think it is, in the press release, you talk about how the PMAs have been scaled to some extent to take account of more recent economic deterioration. I just want to check, within your 30 to 35 basis point cost of risk, expectation for 2023, that is taking into account presumably any modest changes you may need to make to those forward-looking provisions in the nearer term. That's question one. Question two. The DTA stock as it relates to carry forward losses, clearly remains huge at just over GBP 300 million, and you have repeated again, in the release today that you expect that to come back over six years. Aside from profit growth, is there any reason why the release of those DTAs and the benefit they will bring to capital over and above your accounting earnings would be anything other than fairly linear? you know, circa GBP 50 million additional boost per year to the CET1 base from the DTAs unwinding. Thanks a lot. Thank you, Jonathan. Tiffere. We can tell we're towards the end of the queues, can't we, when we're talking about tax. I think the page 38 in our presentation, I think I ought to focus on the weighted average in terms of our scenarios, where you can see actually -1.5% GDP growth or contraction in 2023, and then a recovery in 2024. We've looked at this versus the OBR. The OBR, we're more or less in line with the OBR. We think Bank of England was a bit more cautious. If we, your figures are right. If you look through the details of our disclosures, you'll see that the delta on the ECL between weighted average... Well, between, yeah, between weighted average and downside is around GBP 80 million. On that page 38, that downside is, well, it's a pretty scary downside. If you run that through our models, that would result in another GBP 80 million of ECL provisions. You've noted our PMAs of around GBP 60 million, and actually it's been noted on the slide. That should give you a feel. I mean, you've seen other banks, including us, releasing COVID provisions when they're not needed. PMAs, you know, from experience, those things are there to be either released or used. You wouldn't keep them for many years. All of that is behind our expectation of GBP 30-35. We think as of today, that's the sort of best sort of guidance we can give for 2023. That's the basis on our ROE guidance for 2024 as well. On DTAs, I think that's a decent assumption. You know, we'll not go through modeling that, but we think that's a decent assumption around capital. Okay, thank you. With that, I'll hand back to David for closing remarks. Okay, great. Well, don't worry, I'm not gonna speak for long. Thank you for the time. As you know, we're around and you can contact Richard for any questions. For those of you in Australia, look forward to seeing you next week. Thank you all.