Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome to the presentation of our annual results for 2020, as well as an update on the implementation of the strategic plan that we announced back in December, and which is now being driven forward at pace. Three months into our Strategy 2023 transformation plan, we're making very solid progress as we seek to simplify, strengthen, and streamline AIB. 2020 was a truly extraordinary year in all our lifetimes. Our customers and the communities in which we operate, faced an unprecedented social, health, and economic crisis. I'm pleased to report that the fundamentals of our business are robust, sustainable, and strong. At the outset, I want to pay particular tribute to all our team members across the group for their exceptional performance in supporting our customers, and each other, at this very difficult time. We are pleased to report progress on both our cost initiatives outlined in December, and on our growth initiatives, which are designed to broaden the range of products and services that we present to our customers, to win new customers, and to strengthen our business. We were delighted to announce the acquisition of Goodbody earlier this week, a move which will materially improve our ability to fully serve our personal business and corporate customers. In February, as you know, we signed a memorandum of understanding with NatWest Group relating to the potential acquisition of Ulster Bank's EUR 4.1 billion corporate and commercial loan book, which, on successful completion, will see us welcoming 5,000 business customers to AIB Group. We are excellently positioned to deliver on these growth initiatives thanks to the resilience of our capital position, with our CET1 ratio of 15.6% at year-end, which was achieved while taking a conservative, comprehensive, and forward-looking ECL provision of over EUR 1.4 billion. Despite continuing uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, which is largely dependent on the path of the virus, we believe our economy is poised for a strong recovery in 2021, as vaccine deployment accelerates, as Brexit uncertainty is eliminated, with continuing government supports, a resilient housing market, and surging deposits to play an important role in protecting activity levels today, while powering growth as the threat of the virus recedes. On the sustainability front, we showed it's possible to do well while doing good, with strong growth in green lending now accounting for 16% of new lending, with our strongest performing part of the lending book, once again, being our energy, climate action, and infrastructure team. Don't just take our word for it. Our progress is recognized independently and externally by both rating agencies and industry bodies. We are Ireland's leading financial services provider, and that position is being consolidated and augmented through the determined implementation of our strategy at pace. Turning now to the economy by a strong external performance, which balanced weakness in domestic demand, driven by the virus and its associated restrictions. Expectations now are for an acceleration of activity through 2021 and 2022, with the current lockdown serving to delay rather than derail the recovery. The imbalance between housing market demand and supply will remain a feature for some years to come, despite a better than expected completion outturn in 2020. We are expecting output in the housing market to be behind last year's level somewhat this year due to delayed commencements. That imbalance, something AIB is well-positioned to play its part in resolving, remains a key support for house prices. Looking at the business sector, PMIs are pointing to positive activity levels, with sentiment markedly robust compared with the initial phase of lockdown, thanks to strong fiscal support, the resolution of Brexit uncertainty, and hopes for a successful vaccination program. Finally, household balance sheets are in robust health, with deposits surging and leverage levels continuing their significant reduction from the peak seen during the last crisis. The ingredients are now clearly in place for a strong rebound right the way across the economy over the quarters ahead. When COVID-19 first hit, our reflex was to support our customers, the team at AIB, and the communities that we serve during this period of unprecedented uncertainty. We gave our retail customers over 66,000 payment breaks, with over 88% of those customers now returning to full repayment of principal and interest, which was well in excess of our initial expectations. We kept more than 99% of our branches open, bringing stability to the main streets of Ireland when so many other businesses were forced to close their doors. Over 80% of our employees moved to working from home, while hundreds of our team members remained on the front, serving our customers quite with the teams of Britain and in New York. Which everyone at AIB is the customers and their responsibilities to themselves and share with our families. Also, support AIB Together fundraising through targeted partnership with the [inaudible] continuously where we work and the priority of the sustainability, and those long-term changes are fully reflected in our plan. In terms of our current activity, we've some of our own data with you this morning. Both weekly card spend and mortgage applications are very much in line with the pre-pandemic 2020 levels. At the same time, we've seen an ongoing shift to digital in terms of everyday banking, with a 39% reduction in ATM, a 71% increase in digital wallet payments, while looking at our mortgage applications, 28% in terms of both volume and value are now completed through our end-to-end digital journey. The busiest day in our history for our mobile offering was the 1st of December, with 2.3 million interactions, while online channel usage increased by 14% in the second half of last year compared with the second half of 2019. Today, some 80% of our customers use an AIB online channel on average once a week. This slide is designed to provide you with an at-a-glance snapshot of AIB today, highlighting our market-leading positions. We have a really strong franchise, it's an exceptional platform. We are now well embarked on our strategy to be at the center of our customers' financial lives by presenting an ever-growing range of competitive products and services to our personal business and corporate customers. Our strategy is built on five key pillars: customer first, simple and efficient, risk and capital, talent and culture, and sustainable communities. I'm pleased to report that across all pillars, we made steady, solid progress in 2020 despite the real challenge of COVID-19. It is those pillars, the progress made, and the implementation of our Strategic Plan, that gives us the confidence today to reiterate our 2023 targets of a cost base below EUR 1.35 billion, a CET1 ratio above 14%, and a RoTE, our Great North Star, greater than 8%. I want to take a few moments to update you on the implementation of the Strategic Plan that we presented just three months ago. On the digitalization front, we're amalgamating five branches in Cork, Dublin, and Galway, as previously announced. That will be completed in the first half of this year. At the same time, we are refocusing our network, reflecting evolving customer behaviors to concentrate more on sales and advice, and less on everyday transaction banking, the bulk of which is now completed online. On our end-to-end credit initiative, full rollout is now well advanced in our asset finance area, and we are also making good progress in SME lending, with retail in design and planning. In terms of the way we work, we exited two of our eight Dublin head office buildings in the closing weeks of the year. Today we're announcing that we will be leaving our Burlington Road premises in the first half of this year. We're well on track here. On change delivery, our first recruitment group has been scoped with the 155 roles identified, and we have commenced our formal recruitment process with strong initial interest being shown in those positions. In terms of our business model, corporate advisors have been appointed to advise us on the exit options for our commercial SME business in Britain, and finally, on legacy issues, we signed off [growth slow]. To update you on the progress to broaden and strengthen our product suite. We announced the acquisition of Goodbody earlier this week for an enterprise value of EUR 82 million. This transaction significantly augments our product suite and will allow us to better serve our personal business and corporate customers, and it will be earnings and RoTE accretive in the first full year of ownership. We are also announcing today that we are in exclusive discussions with Great-West Lifeco to establish a 50/50 AIB-branded joint venture. This will allow us to combine the expertise and product range of Great-West and our leading franchise, and it will allow us to broaden and enhance our customer offering in savings, pensions, and life products. The launch of the JV is obviously subject to the successful conclusion of the current negotiations and regulatory approvals, and it's planned for the first half of next year. We are the leading bank in Ireland in promoting and advancing the sustainability agenda. It sits at the very core of our strategy, and we pledge to do even more over the years ahead. We continue to enhance our green product range with clear benefits for the environment, for our customers, and our lending book, with green lending enjoying robust growth in 2020. We're committed to backing economic and social inclusion through many initiatives. Tangible progress has been made here, with highlights including our EUR 300 million social housing fund, our ongoing support for entrepreneurs, and the continued promotion of financial literacy across all our customer groups. We recognize that good governance is vital to sustainability, and our ESG program across the group is led by our board and our sustainable business board subcommittee. Internally, amongst other initiatives, we're focused on the ongoing ESG training and lending exclusions. Externally, we have demonstrated our commitment through our adoption of the UN Global Compact. In 2020, we did EUR 1.5 billion of green lending. We've pledged to do more, and we will do more. It's an area offering potential for very significant, responsible, and sustainable growth over the years ahead. In 2021, we are focused on the execution of our 2023 Strategic Plan, delivering cost efficiencies and expanding our product range. We'll take a prudent and responsible approach to new lending. We'll further strengthen our balance sheet, we'll reduce NPEs towards our 3% target. The strength of our business and expanding range of products and services positions us very well to support the rebooting of the economy, while continuing to work with COVID-19 impact. We are relentlessly focused on returning our group to profitability, to generating capital, and to creating the potential for a return to dividend payments. We will continue to grow our lending book, underpinned by the adoption this year of science-based targets and further integration of ESG priorities right the way across the group. While the near-term outlook is clouded because of the virus, we are positive about the prospects for growth over the years ahead. Targets are set, plans are being implemented, and we are across AIB to deliver of all stakeholders by through the financial details. Operating profit of EUR 700 million, a loss after tax of EUR 700 million. A EUR 1.46 billion ECL charge, which is a cost of risk of 240 basis points, which is in line with consensus and consistent with our comprehensive and forward-looking approach. Total income was EUR 2.4 billion, which decreased 12% on year. Within that, interest income was down 10% and other income was down 19%. Costs of EUR 1,527 million were well managed and in line with expectations. Notwithstanding the difficult operational year from COVID, where we maintained full operational resilience, we reduced our headcount by 3% to finish the year at 9,193 employees. Performing loans were EUR 55.2 billion, which decreased 6% as redemptions exceeded new lending, and we had a higher flow to NPEs. New lending was EUR 9.2 billion, which was down EUR 3.1 billion, which is 25%, which is slightly better than where we would have imagined it in Q1. Gives us cause for optimism and a reasonable trajectory. We have a very strong funding position, which has been compounding the excess liquidity balances. Customer deposits at EUR 82 billion increased by 14% in the year, contributing to higher cash held at the central bank to EUR 19 billion. With respect to MREL, we reached and exceeded our targets throughout 2020 through the issuance of two hybrid securities, an additional Tier 1 instrument of EUR 625 million, and Ireland's first green Tier 2 bonds of EUR 1 billion. Our fully loaded CET1 at the end of the year was very strong at 15.6%, notwithstanding a large ECL charge, comfortably ahead of all regulatory minimums. I'm not going to dwell on the income statement items for too long. Really just to call out two particular items. Year on year, bank levies, regulatory fees, slight increase of EUR 11 million. This is due to the buildup of liabilities and obviously the guarantee scheme which is associated with that. Our associated undertakings, which is really our investment in AIB Merchant Services, contributed EUR 15 million, slightly down on the year, reflecting lower economic activity. A lot of moving parts here on interest income. It's down 10% on the year from full year 2019. Consistent with the way I've shown this before, I want to talk about this in interest income terms, because the NIM distortions from excess liquidity are continuing to create visual difficulties, should I say. If I just walk through the different moving parts for 2020. We had a benefit from liabilities of EUR 81 million. Which is primarily due to lower deposit pricing, generally speaking, and some parts of negative deposit pricing, as well as lower wholesale funding costs. On customer loans, we had a reduction of EUR 152 million, and this is really from volumes and interest rate effects. I would say of that, 50% was due to lower volumes on the balance sheet, and the other 50% was due to lower interest rates running through the asset side of the balance sheet. On investment securities, down EUR 83 million on the year. Obviously, any investments from prior years of higher yields, unfortunately maturing and being replaced with assets at lower levels. As liquidity grows, we're obviously buying some more government bonds as well, which reduces that number overall. I'm trying to isolate here the cost of excess liquidity here of eight basis points. That's EUR 50 million for the year. Half of that is related to cash, which is placed with the Bank of England in the U.K. As the rate cut in the U.K. took effect in early March of 2020, obviously the return on that is lower. That had an effect of around EUR 25 million. The remainder of this, EUR 25 million, is really the cost of excess cash placed with the Central Bank of Ireland, which attracts a negative rate of 50 basis points. I've tried to isolate here the grossing effect of excess liquidity, which I define as 18 basis points. I just want to explain quite clearly what I mean by this, okay? If you can imagine a situation where I have EUR 9 billion of customer accounts or liabilities at zero, I have a TLTRO quantum of EUR 4 billion, and there's a tiered reserve amount of around EUR 5 billion. Okay? There's EUR 9 billion of liabilities paying zero, and I've EUR 9 billion of assets which are paying zero as well. No interest cost, no interest expense, yet it's grossing up the balance sheet on both sides by EUR 9 billion. That's really what I'm trying to isolate here and show the 18 basis points. The real area for NII focus is this on the left-hand side of the page, as these are the ones which have created the reduction in interest income. With respect to excess liquidity, we do have actions in place. We have a tailored negative deposit strategy. Obviously, negative rates implemented in 2014, but as I would have talked before, since 2019, we would have been charging NBFIs negative rates. In 2020, we would have begun to charge our core business customers. At the end of 2020, we had around EUR 4 billion on deposit at negative rates, and this was effectively in line with a threshold of EUR 3 billion for our business and commercial customers. As we go into 2021, that threshold will be lowered to EUR 1 billion, and we would expect that more and more balances will be captured within this construct. To give you within that cohort of business core customers, the total quantum currently, EUR 20 billion, which we believe over this year will attract. Obviously, that number can go up and it can go down, depending on the liquidity position of firms, et cetera. I just wanted to try and quantify what that is. There's roughly an extra EUR 16 million in this for our net price deposit pricing strategy. I would have talked to TLTRO previously, drawn down September, EUR 24 billion. We were certainly fairly committed at the time as we looked at 2021, et cetera. We didn't accrue the benefit for that in 2020. It's still a little bit too close to call. We will know at the end of March and I'll be able to update you at stage what the benefit for that is going to be. As I look to 2021, some headwinds still remain. As I supported in terms of the pillars here, which I've talked to previously. In terms of cost of liabilities, we'd expect to make a continued gain in this area of 10 -1 1 basis points. On customer loans, although the bulk of the interest rate impact has been felt or been taken through the balance sheet, we do see a reduction there of 10 - 11 basis points. The rationale for that is more around volume. We have deleveraged throughout 2020 around EUR 1 billion of leveraged assets. I'll come on to the reason why in the capital slide. We've obviously just executed a portfolio sale, which will have an interest income impact of around EUR 12 million. Lastly, as I would have talked about in December, as we delever the SME portfolio in the U.K., there is approximately GBP 1 billion of assets that will come off the balance sheet. With investment securities, we don't think that there will be too much of a drag in 2021. We expect that to be more like two or three basis points. With respect to excess liquidity, this is obviously going to be dependent in many respects on when business activity resumes, what the quantums are. We feel that the bulk of that excess liquidity cost has already been borne. With a number of actions that we have in place, I don't think in 2021 that that's going to be any more than one basis point. For 2021, what we've said is various factors to impact interest income, and we expect a moderate decline in full year 2021. Other income, obviously very heavily impacted by economic activity, in the Irish economy in particular, customer behaviors, et cetera. Year on year, fees and commissions down around 16% and other income down around 19%. All of the impacts that you see on the fees and commissions line are really all related to both business and retail consumer behavior. What we have seen throughout 2020, if we're to compare volumes activity from lockdown one to lockdown two, and indeed in the current lockdown which we're in, most societies, Ireland's no different. People are learning to live with COVID, so activity is higher, albeit lockdowns exist, and we're still not entirely sure in Ireland when different businesses are going to reopen. Overall, we think that the outturns of volumes are picking up. Other business income includes a couple of items. NAMA subordinated bonds are EUR 23 million. That's the last dividend that we will receive. We've obviously had an RWA benefit from that bond maturing, but that is not going to repeat. We had other item, as we typically do on end of a year, of EUR 101 million equities, and also, again, when we de-leveraged some of our leverage loans, took advantage of strong leverage markets at the back end of 2020. For other income, looking into 2021, activity levels we think will be better. We do see other income improving by 5% or 6% on the core fees and commissions line. Overall for other income, I would say broadly flat year-on-year is how we see total other income. Costs, very much in line with our expectations, EUR 1,527, up 2% as guided. A number of factors impacting costs. Increased depreciation of EUR 50 million, which I would have flagged to you, in December. COVID-19 related expenditure. There was various one-off costs included in there, branch costs, sanitation, et cetera, et cetera, security, enabling all of our staff to be at home. Against that, we obviously have reduced expenditure from travel, business expenses, et cetera. We have lower FTEs year-on-year of, on average, 499, which is around a reduction of 5%. We have a further 1,500 reductions to realize over the coming years to reach our targeted 2023 number of less than 7,700 employees. For 2021, in terms of costs, we would expect to see a further increase in depreciation of approximately EUR 20 million. Within the G&A line, we think that there will be a reduction of around EUR 40 million, and staff costs will generally be flat year-on-year. Overall, you can see on the left-hand side, as we would have explained throughout last year, our FSG non-performing work unit would have been staffed at full levels. Firstly, to ensure wholesome engagement with customers around payment breaks. Obviously also they've been working on different strategies on legacy NPEs, and as Colin mentioned, we would have executed two portfolio sales in quarter one of this year. Exceptional items are EUR 215 million. I'll break this out a little bit. EUR 117 million is restitution costs, which is primarily operational in nature, which is really dealing with the old tracker mortgage DONG items. EUR 36 million relates to U.K. restructuring costs. When I talked to you in December about restructuring U.K., exceptional with respect to people and property, we have those charges in 2020. We reviewed all of our of EUR 3 0 million. This is not on any particular project or any particular system. This is small amounts across the entire register where we had done a full root and branch review, as we do every year. There was one-off COVID-19 related cost of EUR 22 million, and that's very isolated, just for the implementation of payment breaks. And it was a small €9,000,000 for voluntary settlements. I look to 2021, looking at external items in totality, obviously taking some of the benefit of the U.K. costs, acknowledging the ongoing enforcement work with the enforcement work with the CBI on in FY 2021 will be around EUR 250 million. ECR and asset quality. Full-year charge of EUR 1.46 billion. Conservative, forward-looking, and comprehensive. The three main drivers, as we've talked about all year, macroeconomic scenarios, EUR 400 million. Downward staging movements, impact of EUR 700 million, and Post-Model Adjustments of around EUR 400 million. That's a cost of risk for 2020 of 240 basis points. We feel we have maintained our strategy to be forward-looking and to take as much of the potential credit deterioration into account in 2020. I'm happy to reiterate our normalized cost of risk guidance for 2021 at 40 basis points. As we went through the year, there's no doubt the range of outcomes began to narrow a little bit. Our own thinking as management and a board in AIB is that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be very different for AIB than the impact of the last global financial crisis. We obviously have come into this in far stronger liquidity and a capital position. I would just call out two things which are materially different. Number one is through the payment break construct, like direct engagement and very interactive engagement is a part of that process. All customers on payment breaks, coming off payment breaks, irrespective of their financial position, the engagement levels are really, really high, and that gives us a lot of comfort that we'll be able to find very solid solutions for all impacted businesses and customers in the future. There has been unprecedented levels of government support at individual level for wages and even at business level, and that cannot be underestimated. As a percentage of GNI, that is up around 20%. I think the expectation of total cost from the government between 2020 and 2021 is estimated to be something like EUR 35 billion. All of that government support is naturally impacting individuals, customers, and our conversations with them. Macros, not going to dwell on. No doubt, second half of the year, Ireland Inc. performed far better in terms of GDP, HPI. Obviously, a big thing to take off the table was the negotiated Brexit agreement. You'll see between the first half and the second half a material adjustment in macroeconomic impacts. I've just shown you here quickly the weightings, where we've applied our ECLs, 50% base case, maybe 5% overall to the downside, just reflecting the uncertainty that still exists given the fact that a fairly severe lockdown was announced towards the end of the year. On staging overall, just a couple of key points to make here. On the year, our cover would have increased from EUR 1.2 billion- EUR 2.5 billion of stock on the entire balance sheet. What we saw throughout the year really was a movement into Stage 2 for the sectors and the industries that we would've been calling out from Q1. No difference in Ireland to anywhere else, really in our corporate and SME world, hotels, accommodation, non-food retail. When in the commercial real estate world, I would say in particular, retail parks is an area where we have seen weakness. I think some of the key points to show here, Stage 2 cover rate, 9%, which is a large increase year-over-year. Within that, those higher risk sectors that I would have called out, accommodation and some of the construction areas would have Stage 2 cover rates of around 15%. This is really just to reflect the uncertainty that still exists in these sectors. We don't know when the businesses will be reopening. We don't know what the cash flow position is ultimately going to be like. We do think it's unlikely to be until the second half of the year that we really begin to see what the impact is, as the COVID supports are withdrawn by the government. It is comforting, certainly, that the Minister for Finance has reiterated on a number of occasions that supports will remain in place for a long period of time for all of those industries that have been shut down. PMAs, not going to dwell too long on it. EUR 200 million goes to legacy mortgages. I would say that's not really a COVID-related effect. This is legacy mortgages from the last GFC, to be perfectly frank. We need to ensure and wanted to ensure that they are absolutely adequately provided for, so that we can really focus our time and our effort on all of the individuals and businesses who may be impacted by COVID. On the right-hand side, the EUR 200 million, this is really a representation of an expectation and an understanding that as people roll off payment breaks, and the payment break experience was very strong, there is inevitably going to be some businesses and customers who are impacted. Really what we've done is taken a forward-looking estimate for what we think could be impacts coming down the track. Balance sheet overall, really the main item here is on customer accounts. Loan-to-deposit ratio reduced, EUR 10 billion of liabilities increase, obviously on the asset side, this goes back to the Central Bank. Net loans point to point, I'm trying to just break out the difference here, down 6%. In terms of performing exposures, new lending, EUR 9.2 billion, as I would have described. Redemptions in that core portfolio, down EUR 9.9 billion. Slight reduction. Redemptions, I would say, all very much on plan, whereas new lending was impacted by the reduced activity, particularly in Q2. Other items here around the balance sheet would be redemptions of NPEs, an ECL charge. You can see here, again, I've called out the leverage loan disposal of EUR 500 million to leave us at EUR 57 billion at the end of the year. New lending, EUR 9.2 billion. More importantly, up 9% in the second half of the year. Really to give a comparator, I've shown half one, half two. Half two growth, very strong across some of the markets, particularly in the retail world. Mortgages personal. In the wholesale world, property, corporate, and SME. Really strong growth in our energy climate change fund. Reduced appetite in our leverage book, and property exposures increasing. For 2021, we don't know if we'll see that overall trajectory, but certainly, the kind of lending quantums that we saw in half two on an annualized basis would give us comfort to say new lending will be above EUR 10 billion for 2021. The outlook is still uncertain in some sectors. NPE normalization, as always, remains a priority for the organization. Our NPE ratio would have risen from 5.4% to 7.3% in 2020. Slightly less, frankly, than what we imagined at the onset of the pandemic. Earlier this year, as you know, we would have executed two portfolio sales, which has had the effect of reducing our quantum of NPEs from EUR 4.3 billion down to EUR 3.6 billion, which is circa 6%. We remain committed to getting under our circa 3% by 2023. It's going to be very important for us to focus on managing and ensuring we reduce the legacy NPEs so that we can spend our time and energy on the COVID-impacted NPEs, which we think will appear in H2 2021. Funding and capital. Here, only really to show here of the increase in liabilities, half is retail, half is business and corporate. MREL target met and exceeded. Very strong capital position. Lots of capacity for growth, organic and inorganic, in 2001. Fully loaded capital, 15.6%, a very strong outturn. Definitely a few moving parts here for the end of the year, which is worth a little bit of time to talk through. We've been operating with pro forma CET1 reporting for a period of time. I'm pleased to say that the bulk of that is now gone. The TRIM impact in totality is around 130 basis points. Mortgages, 50 basis points, which is not new news. Corporate, post our corporate TRIM, had an impact of around 20 basis points. When we concluded our corporate TRIM review, we would have agreed and accepted with the regulator that for our leverage portfolio, a floor of 125% would be applied. I would have mentioned earlier that we would have delevered some leverage assets. At the start of 2019, that book was around EUR 4.7 billion. At the end of the year, it was at around EUR 3.5 billion, EUR 3.6 billion. Some of that activity, or a lot of that activity, was driven by the fact that we had new risk ratings on that book, which forced us to do some portfolio management to optimize returns, given the increase in risk ratings. For regulatory items of 10 basis points. Software impact, 60 basis points, little bit better. SME 501 impact, 30 basis points. Calendar provisioning was 60 basis points impact, which is slightly better than I would have talked about last year. Obviously, the higher provisions would have helped reduce that number. Other IRB models, 20 basis points. That's really our SME model, which we have submitted to the regulator for approval. We've actually made the adjustment for the risk weighting in advance of how that plays out. Overall, end-to-end, you can see the impact, notwithstanding the fact that we have taken a large ECL charge. Our fully loaded capital is very strong at 15.6% at the end of the year, which leaves us in a very strong position for the year ahead. Medium-term target, 14%, one of the items we would have majored on in December. Strong buffer to MDAs, 5.9% or 9.2% on a transitional basis. For 2021, as we sit here today, I still see some tailwinds on the capital side. On the SME 501, I think that there'll be around 40 basis points of benefit that we can still implement this year. On calendar provisioning, I think there'll be a benefit of around 10 basis points for 2021, which we've actually already realized through the execution and sale of the Oak and Iris portfolios. On inorganic opportunities, obviously, Colin would have talked to this for a period of time, Goodbody and the AIB Life JV. What I'd say on this is a couple of things. Any item we look at from an inorganic basis has to be accretive to RoTE, and obviously in excess of our RoTE target of greater than 8%. If we're to look at some of the businesses which we've disclosed recently, the impact of Goodbody from a capital perspective will be around 15 basis points. The final form of the AIB Life JV is not yet concluded. Will it be a JV, an associate, et cetera? I would say that the capital impact should be no greater than the 15 basis points in Goodbody. On the Ulster Bank MOU, which we have signed and we're working through, it's a bit too soon to talk about revenue impacts et cetera, because there's a lot of work that we still need to go through with Ulster. What I would say is, as you look at the quantum of 5,000 customers, EUR 4 billion of loans, I think an appropriate risk weighting to base your calculations off is probably more similar to AIB's risk weightings, which for the mix of corporate commercial, would be around a 90% risk weighting density. Distribution policy, we're monitoring regulatory developments. Our existing policy is 40%-60% ordinary dividend payout ratio. We haven't accrued a dividend for 2020, given we've posted a loss, we will assess the balance between dividends and buybacks at the appropriate time, which we expect to be in 2022, looking at 2021's returns. Despite near-term uncertainty, we remain positive in our return to profitability in 2021. We'll generate growing and sustainable earnings and resume dividend distributions. Again, a rerun of our medium-term targets. The main one for us, for me, is the cost discipline less than EUR 1.35 billion. That's the enabler for the RoTE greater than 8%. Our Strategy 2023 is set, and we are implementing at pace. Thank you very much. Thank you very much indeed, Donal. We're now going to turn on the telephone lines and take questions from our audience. First up is Diarmaid Sheridan. Good morning, Diarmaid. Good morning, Colin. Good morning, Donal. Can you hear me okay? We can hear you loud and clear. Great. Thank you for the presentation, and thank you for taking my questions. I hope you're both well. Maybe firstly, if we could touch on capital allocation. I guess as we look forward, are the majority of the regulatory impacts now behind us at this point? As such, should we think about capital allocation in terms of inorganic growth and capital distributions? That's the first question. Secondly, just on the strategic initiatives, and appreciate the comments Donal just gave us there. Perhaps you could give us a sense of how meaningful the three inorganic initiatives may have in terms of your 8% return target, and when we should begin to see those kind of accrete into that dynamic, if you like. Maybe just finally, a clarification for Donal, just in terms of the cost of risk and your comment on normalizing at 40 basis points. Is that simply for 2021, or should we think about it as 40 basis points in the medium term? Thank you. I'll just take the strategic initiatives first, Donal. I'll hand over to you on the other two questions. We're obviously still in negotiation with Ulster, with NatWest Group. We have concluded our MOU. There is a huge amount of effort across the organization in bringing that to a conclusion over the course of the next number of months. I'm optimistic that we can get those assets on the balance sheet and welcome those customers to the group, by hopefully, the end of this year. Goodbody will now go through a regulatory approval process. That could take three to four months, we hope to have it as AIB Group, fully consolidated within the group from the second half of the year onwards. Into the joint venture with Great-West Lifeco, negotiations are expected to take another two to three months. We'll go through regulatory approvals then, and we are planning to actually launch products into the marketplace in 2022. No impact in 2021, but we do expect to see it in 2022. In every single one of the cases, the key filter for us, the key determinant of our drive to pursue these initiatives, was that they were going to be RoTE accretive and help us to meet the interim target of delivering an RoTE in excess of 8% by calendar 2023. Donal? Yeah. Thanks very much. On the capital allocation, capital walk, 15.6% starting point. Looking at some tailwinds there gets you up to 16.1%. I think that's the starting point for the analysis. If I look at the timeline for model development, redevelopment, et cetera, with the regulator, we have a number of rebuilds in place. All scalers are already incorporated in our risk weightings to account for that on our main products. Really it's the SME model for approval, where we'll wait and see what the outcome is. There's certainly nothing on the horizon of a negative nature that I can currently foresee. I'm going to have to wait and see and would not want to prejudge any outcome there. Look, I think cost of risk, I would for modeling purposes use normalized cost of risk 40 basis points out the years. Obviously, it's going to change. By 2021 is the year. When we sat down looking at the impact of COVID and payment breaks, we thought they'd be finished and that's quantified by the end of 2020. That just hasn't been the case. We're pushing forward now. I think H2 2023 is a really important time. We've got a large quantum of assets in the higher risk segments in Stage 2. What you're going to see happening there is an amount will obviously move into Stage 3, inevitably and unfortunately. Obviously, a larger quantum will normalize and go back to Stage 1. I think as we get through the year, that's going to be the important piece of work that we're going to need to figure out. I think for now, it will be safer to use 40 basis points cost of risk out to three years. I think we'll have more information on that as the year progresses. Okay, thanks. Next we're turning to. That's very helpful. very helpful. Thank you. Thank you, Diarmaid. Next we're going to turn to Raul Sinha from JPMorgan. Good morning, Raul. Good morning, Colin. Good morning, Donal. A few questions from my side. Maybe the first one on strategic progress. You've made very strong progress already on these growth initiatives. The question I have is, do you think that after these three deals, you have more or less addressed the gaps in the product suite that you foresee, or do you think there's more to do after that? That's the first question. The second one is on dividends. Will you accrue an interim dividend and should we think that any distributions have to wait until full year results 2021, which is early 2022, or is there a possibility that you might consider an interim earlier if the restrictions are lifted? A third very quick one. I was just wondering, it sounds to me like on the NII front, there are clearly lots of moving parts. One of the main moving parts is what happens to the loan book. You've talked about the EUR 10 billion number for 2021. How has the lockdown impacted your loan book early in 2021? What gives you confidence that you won't have a downtick again, like we saw in the first half of last year? Thank you. Thanks so much indeed, Raul. I'll take the question in relation to the strategic progress. This weekend two years ago, I was appointed CEO, and at that point, we identified a number of product gaps in our suite. One of the extraordinary things about this bank is the strength of its customer franchise, and we were very much focused on ensuring that we were able to deliver a complete product suite to our customers as we deliver on our strategic ambition of being at the heart of our customers' financial lives. These transactions allow us to complete the suite. We are absolutely delighted that we've been able to announce them so early in the implementation of our three-year plan. We're done in terms of there may well be one or two small items we look at on an opportunistic basis over the course of the next number of years, but nothing of the quantum that we have announced either over the course of the past number of weeks or announced this morning. The product suite, when we complete these transactions, will be complete. Hi, Raul. Question here on dividend around interim considerations. Got to be honest, I'm not thinking about an interim dividend for 2021. What I am focused on for 2021 is sizing all of the impacts of these inorganic items from a capital perspective, income cost perspective. If I was able to sit here at the half-year results and give you a comprehensive overview of all of the moving parts and the impacts of these items, that would have been definitely a good day's work for me. I'm really, really focused on that, and organizationally, we're going to be really focused on that. I think for the base case, we're focused on return to profitability in 2021 for a dividend to be paid out in 2022. Anything in the interim is going to be focused around the strategy and the integration of the inorganic items. NII, good question. It's around liabilities, it's around deposits, and it's around speed of execution of pricing strategies. On the new growth, look, there is uncertainty due to the lockdown. Okay? What we have seen, though, even if you look at Q3, Q4 loan volumes demands, businesses and individuals are becoming more accustomed of living with COVID-19 and operating with COVID-19. We are seeing stronger mortgage market balances than what we would've imagined. It's more likely that supply will be a bigger issue in 2021 than demand. Building sites were closed for a period of time. We do think that that market will be certainly greater than what it was in 2020. In the other areas, whether it be SME, corporate, property, I think there is a lot of business to be done there. I think that initially we felt the participation of the Irish banks and the guarantee schemes could have looked something like the participation of the U.K. banks and CBILS and BBLS, and those kind of programs. We just didn't see that in Ireland at all. Of maybe EUR 3.5 billion of available funds for guarantee funds, only a third was drawn down across the system. What was different is that there was also various forms of grants available, maybe up to EUR 800 million-EUR 900 million, and these were all drawn down. Okay. What's happened is the impacted business are looking to have their wages paid, and they're receiving grants while they're locked down. As the calendar becomes clear with respect to which businesses can reopen, obviously those supports are going to be withdrawn, and at the same time, we do expect that all of our customers will continue to engage with us, and then term out debt to reopen and to grow their business in the coming year. We do think that there's going to be an amount of credit demand in that area. Again, it's just uncertain. I'd love to be able to give you a lot more clarity, but sitting down with a hotel operator, asking them for a cash flow analysis, it's just a short conversation at the moment. Sure. That's really helpful. Thank you. Thanks so much indeed. Now, given that we haven't closed the transaction, it's probably a little bit premature to describe our next speaker as a colleague, but Eamonn Hughes from Goodbody, the floor is yours. Hello, Donal, as well. Three, if you don't mind, just capital kind of costs and maybe revenue stroke market share in mortgages. Firstly, on the capital side. In relation to the slide, maybe at Donal, directionally on page 33, you're talking about the existing policy of 40%-60% ordinary dividends, then obviously considering buybacks. Would it be the case that you consider a dividend within that range and a buyback on top of that, or would it all be kind of a total distribution? I suppose that the question, just given the very attractive capital ratio overall and above your targets. The second question maybe on the costs, two parts, if you don't mind. The first one is just could I be clear just in relation to Donal, if you said personnel costs were expected to be flat this year, but also just with the acquisitions and standing back, coming on board, it sounds like you're still very comfortable on the medium-term targets. Presumably maybe doing a little bit better on the underlying basis, maybe just to clarify that. Finally, I know you've given kind of the broad loan guidance for the year. Just in relation to your market share, it kind of weakened on the mortgage side as the year progressed. I was just trying to get a sense how you've maybe opened this year, maybe to get back to kind of where you were, maybe just some sense on that'd be great as well. That's it. Thank you, Eamonn. I'll address the mortgage issue first, then we'll hand over to Donal in relation to the capital ratios and the costs. We had a very strong first quarter of 2020. Given the array of uncertainties that were out there in the second quarter, we're looking at an extraordinary array of uncertainties, very difficult outlook. We took a deliberate stance to be very conservative in relation to our mortgage policies. As that uncertainty dissipated, we were very much open for business now, right the way across all our channels, branch, phone, internet and mobile. We're seeing very encouraging applications coming through the pipeline currently. Now, there's obviously a lag between applications and drawdowns, but we're encouraged by what we're seeing coming through at the moment. Of course, we have an ongoing emphasis on our green product. We want to see more and more of our mortgage lending being characterized as green, and we expect that to be the case in 2021. Hi, Eamonn. Firstly, on the costs, I really should have reiterated that our medium-term targets, and the guidance that I gave was pre any inorganic items. It's a little bit too difficult to precisely size them at the moment. I've left any of the guidance I gave you around costs, income, capital, et cetera, was really pre any inorganics. Like I said, I will, at the half year, give a much more wholesome overview of the entirety of the impact of those items financially. In terms of ordinary and buyback, I think, look, the focus of 2021 is to get back to profitability. That is the name of the game. Just remember, whenever we look to make a dividend payment, the document we'd be discussing with the regulator is an ICAAP. Okay, we have to have an ICAAP with the implementation of inorganic items, et cetera. That's really going to be what the focus is going to be for this year. When I said the reason I refer to buybacks is if we get into 2022, and, let's say equity valuations are where they are currently, I'd be mad not to look at buybacks as opposed to a cash dividend. Okay, thanks very much indeed- Okay, thank you. Donal. Next on the line is Chris Cant from Autonomous. Good morning, Chris. Question. Couple of points really around the transactions and how that fits into your guidance. Could I just confirm your flat other income guidance or broadly flat other income guidance for 2021 was pre Goodbody. I think from your answer to the last question it was, but just given you expect inclusion there from the second half, it would be a helpful clarification. In terms of Goodbody, the public disclosure there on the financials is fairly limited, at least based on what I've been able to find. Given that sort of a more advanced stage, I appreciate you don't necessarily want to talk about synergies or anything like that at this point, but what is the sort of annualized revenues and costs you're thinking about including there in terms of how that business has been performing over the last couple of years? Just a sense would be helpful. Then on Ulster, that feels like the most significant transaction. When I crunch the numbers on that, it looks very accretive, even with the sort of 90% risk weight that you mentioned during your remarks. Are you expecting to pay a big premium to par for that book to reduce that accretion? Am I missing something there perhaps? Your remarks announcing that MOU mentioned that staff directly involved in that lending book would transfer across. I assume that means that the cost income ratio on that acquired business is fairly low. Again, perhaps I'm missing something. As I say, when I crunch the numbers, and I think when others have crunched the numbers, it looks very accretive. I guess the market is pretty skeptical that it looks a bit too good to be true. Any color on anything we might be missing in our analysis would be helpful. Thank you. I'll deal with the Ulster question, before handing back over to Donal. We've signed the MOU. We're in a very good position here. The negotiations are continuing. We're in very detailed due diligence as we speak, and we hope to conclude matters over the course of the next number of months. As I said earlier, all of the transactions that we're doing, all of the activity we're engaged in terms of inorganic growth, has a simple filter applied to it. Is it going to be accretive to our medium-term RoTE target of greater than 8%? You saw that we're talking about taking in EUR 4.1 billion of corporate and commercial lending, which currently sits within Ulster Bank. We're also bringing with those assets something of the order of about 300 people from Ulster who are mainly relationship managers, and we look forward to welcoming them to the team here at AIB. The key thing is, I'm not going to get into detailed negotiations over a virtual line this morning. The detailed negotiations are taking place between our team, the team at Ulster and the team in NatWest. Rest assured, this deal will undoubtedly position this bank as Ireland's leading corporate and business bank. It puts it beyond doubt, puts it beyond debate, and it will be accretive to our RoTE target of greater than 8% in 2023. Donal. Yeah, I'd say on the specific question on my guidance around other income, what I mentioned there, flat year-on-year, again, that is excluding any impact from Goodbody. Obviously, some of the details of the transactions were externalized. It's a bit too early for us to talk to that in detail. Okay. One of the reasons for making this acquisition, very simple, bring our customers to their products. It's going to take a little bit of time for us to be able to tease that out and give you the kind of color and information that you were looking for. Needless to say, we feel with our customer base, with deal flow that generates that we feel we're missing at the moment, we think that there can be a reasonably material uplift to the Goodbody's proposition. We're working at pace with the management team of Goodbody's to try and solve and to bottom out what these items could be. Thank you, Chris. Okay. Thank you. We're now going to Daragh Quinn from KBW. Good morning, Daragh. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions and all the guidance and details you've given. It seems almost churlish to ask for a bit more, but did just want to go back to the dividend. We've seen a number of other European banks look to recover or repay, if you want, the canceled 2019 dividends once the current restrictions are lifted at the end of September. Given your capital ratio, I appreciate it's in the context of a number of acquisitions, but was that an option or something that you considered or debated? A second question on the restructuring charges and the outlook for costs. You've indicated a EUR 250 million restructuring charge or other provision charges in 2021. Should that be framed against the EUR 400 million number that you gave for 2021 and 2022? Then on the wage guidance for 2021, which I think you indicated as to be roughly flat, if you could just put that in context relative to the number of employees and how we should think about the wage evolution given the declining FTEs, and I guess what is that saying about underlying wage growth? Again, I think you have confirmed it, but all of that guidance around costs excludes the acquisitions. In relation to wages, I'll just take that question first before I pass the baton over to you. In relation to wages, we're currently engaged with the FSU in relation to negotiations for 2021. I'm very comfortable with what Donal just said in relation to overall guidance. We have made significant progress in reducing our head count over the 2020 year, and we have a very clear target out there. We have indicated that we are going to embark on a voluntary severance program. We're currently in consultation on that, and it is something that I expect we will bring over the course of the next number of months. We are going to see steady linear progress over the course of the next two years in getting us from the 9,100 level that it was at the end of 2020, down to less than 7,700 on an unchanged business basis at the end of 2023. Donal. Yeah. Thanks very much. I think where I may have confused you, and this is my fault, by saying that staff costs will be flat year on year, that is indeed how we see it. It's not due to wage inflation or anything like that. It's actually linked to some of the G&A reduction as well. If you may remember in December, we said that we were going to begin to insource some roles in the technology world. Rather than paying all these experts to do stuff for us, we bring in-house a certain quantum of these. What you're going to see is a reduction in G&A from that kind of expense, because we're going to be doing it ourself with our own people. People flat, G&A down is going to be the way that that is going to operate. It's certainly not a commentary around wage inflation. I think that you'll continue to see the overall trajectory of the head count decline in line with the way Colin described. The interplay and interactions between G&A and staff will change a little bit. That was on wages. On exceptionals, I said EUR 400 million between 2021 and 2022. In effect, what I've done is taken amount of that in 2020, so EUR 200 has effectively reduced by that EUR 35. Really what I'm doing is filling in the gap for what I think the exceptional costs will be for 2021, incorporating hopefully the last year of costs associated with the tracker mortgage review, et cetera. Which is still ongoing, and obviously the timeline is set by the Central Bank of Ireland and not us. Then dividend. I think if we were not embarking on a number of inorganic items, we were working off a clean balance sheet, clean capital environment, it would have been something that we would have considered. Just given the variety of different items that we are looking at now, EUR 4 billion of banking assets, a new life co JV, it just didn't seem feasible or credible to be on top of that, looking to talk about surplus capital, et cetera, what to do with it. We're really focused in 2021 on returning to profitability, integrating all of these items that we've talked about, being able to describe to you really clearly capital return impacts. If we do that well, we'll be generating lots of capital, I think the conversation around dividends going forward become a lot more straightforward. Okay. Thanks for that. That's great. Thanks. Now we'll turn to Aman from Barclays. Good morning. Morning, gents. Can I come back to net interest income, please? I know 2021 and further out's going to be impacted by various acquisitions, but just the kind of underlying NII of your business as you're kind of guiding to it. Can I ask you for a bit more clarity on moderate in terms of your NII guide? Are you able to describe a percentage rough range for 2021 versus 2020? I guess the reason I'm asking is, think your kind of exit run rate, and in terms of where NII's annualizing at the moment, and I appreciate access to credit is waning. To me, it does imply something quite meaningfully below where the street is next year. If as part of that, you could help us understand what your exit average interest earning assets were in Q4, that'd be really helpful. Can I ask about TLTRO? Thanks very much for the commentary about the EUR 4 billion drawdown. Do you think you'll meet your balance sheet cost as recognized at the end of the year? If so, should we be looking to kind of add 100 basis points to the contribution from that book, and is that to any extent embedded in any of your guidance or is the outlook for the balance sheet a little bit too uncertain? I guess on negative interest rates, thank you very much for that disclosure regarding the incremental EUR 16 billion of deposits. Just roughly speaking, what kind of rate are you charging those customers? Again, is that kind of captured into your NII guide? Just the final one, sorry, on your investment securities comment. Presumably that excludes the impact of your structural hedge. Forgive me if I've not seen it, but I can't see a disclosure on the structural hedge in any of the slides or report. Could you help us kind of understand the balance and the yield on that book? It sounds like you're not really expecting that to be a drag going forward. Could you confirm and quantify that, please? Thank you. Thanks, Aman. I'll take the negative interest rate question. We'll hand over to Donal. Like every bank across the Eurozone, we've been grappling with the impact of negative interest rates since 2014. At the moment, we've got a pass-through of that minus 50 basis points to customers with a credit balance in excess of EUR 3 million. EUR 3 million, the current threshold on that. We'll be reducing that threshold through the next two quarters, so that by the end of the third quarter, all balances, personal and business and corporate above EUR 1 billion will be liable to negative interest rates. Okay. Moderate. One can get into word-smithing here. I would say moderate is less than five, certainly in my terminology. TLTRO, I would love to say that this was absolutely nailed on, but it is still pretty close to call. It certainly isn't going to cost me anything. I think that the TLTRO terms for next drawdown are very, very favorable, and I will be able to update you in March. It's just quite close to call. Redemptions impact this as much as new business, so it's very hard to be completely definitive, and I don't want to give you a wrong answer. I have conceptually got my head around taking on TLTRO liabilities, notwithstanding the fact I have quite a strong liability base because of the potential gains, once you meet your asset targets. In the guidance I've given you, I haven't included any further impacts or anything beyond the TLTRO III. I will be looking to draw down under the new terms of the new TLTRO as well, but I just want to figure out where we are at the end of March first. AFI gave you the clear guidance there because the number was material. In terms of SHP, obviously in a lower rate environment that's going to perform. In 2019, SHP contribution to NII was around 6%. 2020, SHP contribution to NII was around eight or 9%. I didn't incorporate it. It's within that customer loans number. In 2019, I would have referenced an EUR 8 billion structural hedge with an average life of five years. Throughout 2020, we would have increased that, based off the fact that the lower for longer environment is fairly nailed on. It's more like EUR 10 or EUR 11 billion now. As I look to the outer years, and why I don't draw attention to it, is we see it being pretty consistent, at around 8% or 9% of NII in the coming years. It's not going to create any material changes up or down. Okay. Next we've got Guy Stebbings from Exane. Morning. Morning. Thanks for taking my questions and for all this morning. I just wanted to come back to deposits, firstly. Obviously very strong influence, thanks for all the detail on how it impacts NIM. I guess your guidance net interest income on the basis of no acquisitions, but presumably when you look at those excess deposits, you have an eye to things like the ultimate acquisition and therefore the current hit to NII NIM from excess deposits. Perhaps you view it a little bit as transitory in nature? Would you still seek to manage it down quite meaningfully if you could, going forwards? On the U.K., sort of similarly, obviously a healthy or quite a low loans deposit ratio. You're pointing to GBP 1 billion of asset sales in the U.K. I'm just wondering what the strategy would be with the deposits in the U.K. if you're successful there. Just a very quick final question on unsecured. Quite pleasing to see that it grew in the second half unlike what we're seeing in some jurisdictions. I appreciate it's a relatively small portion of the book, but just wondering how you're thinking about that going forward. I think you said that credit card activity was already back to pre-crisis levels. Should we expect to see growth in that portfolio even before all lockdown restrictions ease? Thanks. Okay. At a general level in relation to deposits, the surge that we've seen is driven by an element of precautionary saving, but there's also an element of inability to spend because of the nature of the lockdown restrictions. We do expect that as those restrictions ease, you will see a significant uptick in consumption and investment, which will go some way towards addressing the surplus liquidity that we're currently dealing with. Donal. With respect to the U.K., as Colin mentioned, we have advisors appointed for the business. If I look at the assets and liabilities, GBP 1 billion worth of assets, liabilities associated with that is around EUR 4 billion. We're dealing with different counterparts at the moment to see what kind of mix and what kind of transaction makes the most sense for customers, counterparties, ourselves. We would expect, if the assets are, and the customers are leaving, that the liabilities will transfer with them. That's an effect that we think we'll see throughout 2021. On the personal loans and credit cards, again, we certainly saw strong trajectory H1 to H2. We saw a once in a lifetime effect, unfortunately, in January, where around credit card debt was paid down, which is pretty unusual in Ireland. It's normally all maxed out in the first 30 days of January, February. Look, it's linked to ability to spend. When the reopening timetable is clearer, we do think that that is going to continue to normalize a lot. We would have presented, in the personal banking space, a new green personal loan product, very heavily targeted at buying electric vehicles, retrofitting homes. That comes at a discount to our normalized rate, and that's a product that we think is going to be very attractive in the marketplace, and all of our different distribution channels are rolling that out at the moment. We think that that is going to be a really key point of differentiation for us in the whole sustainability type environment. That is what gives me cause for optimism. Okay. Now for our final question this morning, we are turning to Marta Romero from Bank of America. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I would like to go back to Ulster, if I may. NatWest Management has been very explicit about the contribution of the commercial business, which was slightly over EUR 200 million in 2020. Is this a figure you feel comfortable with? Regarding costs, they've mentioned that you will be onboarding roughly 300 employees. Trying to tally that with the guidance you've given for 2023 in terms of total number of employees, what's your expectation on that and costs, of course? The second question would be on capital, and if you could give us an update on progress on your internal models. You mentioned at Investor Day that you were investing. Are you hopeful you can bring credit risk density down in your mortgage book? Do you think that after what's happened with Ulster, the Central Bank may be more receptive to the idea that current treatment of Irish mortgage books may be too punitive compared to the Eurozone? Thank you. I'll take the last comment, then I'll hand over to Donal. I think that we're all well aware of the burden of capital which Irish banks carry in terms of requirements. That's a very obvious consequence of the credit experience during the last financial crisis, during the global financial crisis. My personal view is that I don't expect to see any significant change in that over the near term. We're going to have to see what is the credit experience this time around. I believe it'll be substantially better. We need to see those data points, and we need to see them running through our models over the next number of quarters, and indeed years, before I would expect to see any significant relief on that front. Donal. Yeah, look, I think the impact of COVID-19, when we see that moving through stages, particularly Stage 3 into resolutions, I think that's a relevant data point. All our models really know at the moment is what happened in the last GFC, which was pretty catastrophic. Like Colin says, despite the fact that the last number of years have been relatively benign, the history is what really tends to hurt us. The way the models are built is they're pretty long-dated. I think it would be naive to think risk weighting density is going to fall any day soon, as this hasn't been my experience to date. I don't think it'll get much higher. I don't think it could get much higher. We don't certainly bake any benefits of that into our overall thinking about capital. Until it happens, we don't bank it. In terms of Ulster, I clearly need to be quite careful here because it's an MOU. It's very early days. Other than to say that number seems quite high, that you have mentioned. I'll leave it to you to look through all of the various disclosures. We're specifically looking at assets, people associated with those specific assets. Sometimes it can get a little bit confusing with ancillary items which may or may not be incorporated, such as asset finance and things like that. I just certainly don't want you getting ahead of yourself a little bit with a number like that. Okay, there you have it, results 2020 and our update on the strategic plan. Thank you for attending this morning. We look forward to updating you on our first half performance as we move into August. Thank you very much indeed. Good morning.