Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ardagh Group S.A. Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Herman Troskie, Chair of Ardagh Group. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you very much. Welcome, everybody, and thank you for joining us for today's Ardagh Group Call, which follows the release earlier today of our results in respect of the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined on this call by John Sheehan, Group CFO, and by Mike Dick, CEO of Glass Packaging. Prior to taking your questions, we will make some opening remarks covering our fourth quarter and full year performance, our capital structure, and our outlook for the year ahead. These remarks will include certain forward-looking statements which reflect circumstances at the time they are made, and the company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied due to a wide range of factors. The Group's full year report can be found at ir.ardaghgroup.com. Ardagh Metal Packaging, or AMP, released its fourth quarter and full year results earlier today, and a replay of its earnings call is available on its website. As usual, we will not be providing additional information regarding AMP on this call. Beginning with some Ardagh Group highlights for the fourth quarter. Revenue of $2.2 billion was 1% lower than the same period last year on a constant currency basis. This reflected higher shipments in both metal packaging and glass packaging compared with the same period last year, and the pass-through of lower input costs in the glass business. Adjusted EBITDA of $275 million increased by 13% at constant currency compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, with strong growth of 9% in metal and 18% in glass packaging. Reviewing fourth quarter performance by segment on a constant currency basis and commencing with metal packaging. Global beverage can shipments increased modestly in the quarter compared with the same period last year, with an 8% advance in Europe, largely offset by a 5% decline in the Americas, the latter against a strong prior year comparable. Full year 2024 beverage can shipments increased by 3%, with Europe increasing by 4% and the Americas by 2%. Adjusted EBITDA of $164 million was ahead of AMP's guidance and 9% ahead of prior year. Now, moving to glass packaging. Fourth quarter revenue of $1 billion was 6% lower than the same period last year, principally reflecting the pass-through to customers of lower energy costs in Europe. Global glass shipments increased by 1% compared with the same period last year, with growth of 5% in the Europe and Africa segment, partly offset by a 10% reduction in North America. Glass packaging Adjusted EBITDA of $111 million increased by 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Now, looking at each of our two glass packaging segments, beginning with Europe and Africa, revenue of $696 million was 5% lower than the same period last year, with shipment growth of 5% offset by the pass-through of lower input costs to customers. In Europe, fourth quarter shipments were 3% higher than the same period last year. Market demand remained subdued and volatile, with growth in the food, spirits, and wine end markets partly offset by lower shipments to the beer and non-alcoholic beverage end markets. Overall, shipments were slightly ahead of our forecast for the quarter. Full year 2024 glass shipments in Europe increased by 2%, led by some recovery in beer, spirits, and wines. Customer behavior remained cautious, and clear patterns are hard to discern, but the market showed signs of stabilization in the quarter. We continued to curtail significant production during the quarter and, in early 2025, announced the proposed permanent closure of a production facility in Europe. Following a period of softness in the third quarter, our Africa business finished the year strongly in the seasonally important final quarter. Glass packaging shipments increased by 11% in the quarter, led by beer market growth in South Africa. Full year 2024 shipments in Africa increased by 6% compared with 2023 and benefited from some build in customer returnable glass floats during the year. This will represent a modest headwind in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for the Europe and Africa segment of $86 million represented a 16% increase on the same period in 2023. Turning to glass North America, fourth quarter revenue of $340 million was 7% lower than the same period last year. This was attributable to 10% lower glass shipments in the quarter, principally in the wine and beer end market segments. The actions we've taken in recent periods, encompassing footprint adjustments, commercial improvements, and SG&A reductions, drove EBITDA growth of 25% in the quarter compared with the same period in 2023. The market environment remains uncertain, with the potential impact of tariffs a notable recent consideration, but we continue to seek operating, commercial, and cost improvements in our business. We recently announced the planned closure of a facility in Illinois and have continued to invest in our operations to drive efficiency with a view to a sustainable improvement to earnings and cash generation. Turning to liquidity and capital structure, the Group ended 2024 with strong consolidated cash and available liquidity of over $1.5 billion. Cash at the consolidated Group was almost $1.1 billion. Reflecting the improved year-on-year fourth quarter performance, last 12 months Adjusted EBITDA to 31 December 2024 at the Ardagh Restricted Group, including dividends from AMP, increased to $809 million. Net leverage at the Ardagh Restricted Group was 7.6x last 12 months Adjusted EBITDA to 31 December 2024, compared with 8.1x at 30 September 2024. Our capital structure review is ongoing, with constructive discussions underway with noteholders. Following the refinancing of our 2025 maturities last June, we have no bond maturities arising before August 2026. We remain focused on establishing a sustainable capital structure. Moving to the 2025 outlook, AMP has guided to 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $675-$695 million compared with a 2024 outturn of $672 million. Against continued market and macro uncertainty in glass packaging, we are targeting mid-single-digit growth in full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA, principally driven by signs of stabilization in demand in Europe and our profit improvement initiatives in North America. Having made these opening remarks, we will now be pleased to take any questions that you may have, but we will not be commenting further on our capital structure review. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing Star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press Star one to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for a question. Our first question comes from Ed Brucker with Barclays. Hey, thanks for taking the question this morning. The closures of the Illinois and then the Germany facilities that happened in the first quarter, do you expect costs associated with that similar to you had with previous closures? Yeah, hi, Ed. You know, in our cash outlook in the current year, 2025, we'd expect restructuring costs, of which they would be a significant part of it, cash of around about $50 million. Yeah, they would arise in the current financial year. Got it. Just going into some of the volume weakness that you saw in North America, down 10%, I mean, lapping some pretty down quarters in the previous year, just want to get a sense of what the continued weakness has been. Is it consumer, you know, weaker consumer, or has there been share loss or maybe substrate shift? Yeah, hi, Ed, it's Mike here. Yeah, look, I think what we're seeing is certainly consumer, if you look at the general market and how the developments there, they are down quite considerably. If you look at beer, etc., it's been in a general decline for many years. What we are seeing, of course, is wines that have moved down, and that does reflect some of the consumer demand, etc., from that standpoint. It is fair to say that in that sector, we have moved on pricing, which has had an impact of some loss of share. In general, it is down to the consumer demand and also the fact that we are realigning our mix with regard to some of the footprint changes we're doing. Just, Ed, it's worth noting that with the volumes down, you know, the actions that we've taken, our EBITDA was up by about 25% in the quarter, albeit off a low level. As we look into the current year, you know, the effects of the footprint changes we've made last year, you know, it's not about volume this year either, but it's about profit improvement. We've invested and continue to invest in the, you know, the go-forward facilities. Got it. That's helpful. Maybe just sneak one more in on the tariff impact. I think previously we had talked about, you know, there being ways to circumvent it, but just given the focus that we've seen, if you could just update on how it could affect your business. The tariffs, yeah, it's very hard to, it's very hard to make some assessments really around tariffs. I think we're seeing, well, concerns across not just North America, but also Europe as well with regard to the announcements that are coming out. I think in general, the one thing we can say is we are seeing the 10% tariffs in China, which may have some impacts with regard to some of the volumes in North America, particularly around wines and maybe in food. It's really hard to make a full assessment at this stage because I think it's fair to say that it's quite volatile in real terms. It's hard to make that judgment at this point. Got it. I appreciate the time. Our next question comes from Mark Watts with Citi. Hi, guys, just a couple of ones here. We've had a couple of peers report, you know, some on the beverage can side, a bit more volume share. Are you seeing any evidence of, I guess, that trend in Europe on the volume side? Do you expect much into 2025? I guess the other was just more on the drawdown of some of this, like a Apollo term loan. Obviously, realize you can't comment around the broader restructuring, but what's the expectation there in terms of use of that facility going forward? If your question relates to metal, we can't comment on metal, unfortunately. Oh, it's more just around kind of market share gains or losses in Europe in terms of broader volume. Are you seeing in terms of customers broader discussions around volumes? Yeah, look, I think we're, yeah, look, I think we're seeing some movements with regard in certain segments that we deal with in real terms. We are seeing some movements with regard to market share from that perspective. In general terms, I think obviously it's the general demand that's been a big factor there, but there has been some movement. Okay, what's sort of in segments? It's mainly in the beer and soft drinks. Okay. You had a question on the Apollo facility. We drew that down in June. We repaid the 2025 maturity. There was a separate exchange facility, which was, you know, it's addressed in our financials. There's been no change there. That's not been used. That's all that's laid out at December 31 and as in previous quarters. Got it. Could I just ask the final one on just hedging? Given there's been some kind of bit of an uptick in general in that gas pricing, quite volatile, how are you looking at the hedging book? Yeah, so we're more or less 75-80% hedged at this stage. Clearly, there's still a lot of movement in that area, but that's our position at this stage, which is in line with our policy. Thanks, guys. Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing Star one on your telephone keypad. We'll move to our next question from Richard Phelan with Deutsche Bank. Thank you. A couple of questions. You allude to the base and bear cases in terms of your discussions with your creditors and as part of your assumptions. What are the volume assumptions in Europe and Africa, North America for 2025? I appreciate that's driving the single-digit growth in EBITDA for the year. Yeah, look, if you're looking at our growth, our volume expectations, we're looking at mid-single digits for Europe and Africa in volume movements. In North America, we're looking at high single-digit reduction. Richard, those scenarios, we just have to consider them as part of our year-end. You know, we have, as we said, very strong liquidity, you know, $1.5 billion at the end of the year. You know, following the 2025 refinancing, we've no maturities until next is August 2026. Yeah, we just have to lay out the thought process that we go through in satisfying ourselves at year-end. Given the Illinois announcement, is it fair to say that at this point the restructuring actions are completed, or would you expect further furnace closures or plant reductions in the future? I guess, you know, as it relates to that, you know, sorry, would the total restructuring cash cost be expected in 2025 and 2026? Yeah, Richard, with regard to our actions in North America, we don't see any further actions needed with regard to that. We've gone through the process that we've with regard to our restructuring of the footprint, and we're happy with that from that standpoint. We don't see any further actions at this stage. Okay, understood. Maybe one last question, if I could throw one in. You mentioned that 75%-80% of your energy costs are hedged, but given where those hedges are and market prices, is it your expectation that energy would reflect a tailwind or a headwind as we go into 2025 compared to the energy total bill in 2024? Yeah, look, there is a tailwind, a tailwind, and that is coming through in our pass-throughs to our customer base. That is the process we do, and we do see a tailwind at this stage. I would say, of course, that it is very volatile also. You can see the movements in the last three, four weeks. In general terms, we see it as a tailwind based on our 2024 position. Understood. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our Q&A session for today. I'll now turn the call back to Herman Troskie for additional or closing remarks. All right, thank you everyone for dialing in. We appreciate it, and we look forward to welcoming you on our next call. Thank you very much. That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now.
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