Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the HeidelbergCement Q3 and Nine Months Fiscal 2023 C all, hosted by PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. As a reminder, for the duration of this conference, all participants' lines will be in a listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, Sir. Thank you, Aman. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, we welcome you to the FY23 and FY23 call of HeidelbergCement India Limited. On the call we have with us Mr. Jamshed Naval Cooper, Managing Director, and Mr. Anil Sharma, Chief Financial Officer of HeidelbergCement India Limited. Due to certain unavoidable medical circumstances, Mr. Joydeep Mukherjee, Chief Operating Officer, has not been able to make on this call, and we regret this inconvenience. I would like to mention on behalf of HeidelbergCement India Limited and its management, that certain statements that may be made or discussed on this conference call may be forward-looking statements related to future developments in the current performance. These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and other important factors, which may cause the actual developments and results to differ materially from the statements made. HeidelbergCement India Limited and the management of the company assumes no obligation to update or publicly or alter these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise. Also, HeidelbergCement India Limited has uploaded a copy of the FY23 presentation on their stock exchange and in its website. Participants are requested to download a copy of the presentation from these websites. I will now hand over the floor to the management of HeidelbergCement India Limited for the opening remarks, which will follow by interactive Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Cooper, sir. Thank you, Vaibhav, and a big thank you to all the people who have joined the conference today. I hope you have received and read the presentation what we have uploaded on our website. But let me take you through this presentation, taking you to on the highlights of our December quarter key messages. I'm very happy to say that, you know, the green power, share of green power, has increased substantially, and I think this is one of the bright sides of it, because this will help us in the future in a very big way. There is a 33% increase in green power, and I'm delighted that the team has done a good job. We continue to produce 100% blended cement, so this is one of the major highlights of us, and we remain focused on our CO₂ commitment here, so this continues as such. Our volumes, you know, have increased on quarter-on-quarter basis. Although there is a drop off on a decrease on a year-on-year basis, but there is a, the reason is very simple, that we had some warehousing problems also, other than the first, these things. So but I think that is behind us. I think that we have overcome that, so these volumes unfortunately got a hit. Now we should be coming out of these woods. The cost increase has been about 9%, which has been partially offset by the price increase. So a long way to go for us to... Now, with the in this quarter, the cost would have come down, somewhat cost, because of the power, fuel cost has come down, so we should be able to garner a little bit of momentum on this account and do better here. Our EBITDA dropped up to INR 339, INR 339 t hat is mainly because of the power and fuel cost, which has increased, which is almost significant in impact on this. Other highlight, which is a positive side, is that Heidelberg continues to operate on a negative working capital. So this is one thing which we have the distinction, and net cash is about INR 1.5 billion. Coming to the next point in the presentation, you can see how the green power has increased. So the team is doing a fantastic job of, you know, focusing on green power, taking a very responsible action, a very responsible behavior to ensure that, you know, we are compliant, and we remain compliant, and we prepare our organization, which is future-ready for when CO₂ becomes one of the major elements, where we have to really take, we have to bite the bullet. Coming to the next thing is that, you know, we have on a CO₂, to just to support our CO₂ and also to clean, to support the clean and green environment, you can see, the way we have done our plants greenery. We say now we have plants in plants, and plants in plants. So this is where, you know, we say that, you know, we have made a difference, to the whole organization. And I think this has helped us in reducing the ambient temperature in our plants, which has, we have a target to come to 2° lower. So we are in many of our plants, we have reached that target, and we will continue to do better. The happiness quotient in the plant is better. The employee productivity goes up. So all these things have helped us in one way or the other. Coming to the next slide, you can see the biodiversity which are there. So, being passionate about the environment, I had to put these things in front of you too, so that you see that, you know, we also make cement, but we also ensure that, you know, the environment around us is kept in the best of its position. We are, you know, we are seen by the society also as responsible corporates when it comes to maintenance of environment is concerned. CSR, our obligation to the society, continues unabated. We are doing so much of, you know, work with our neighboring schools. You can see these pictures on health camps, or whether it is school, so buildings, whatever we are doing. Now, let's get to the focused area, which is our, bread and butter, and also your interest, area of interest, much more area of interest on for you. I think you have gone through all the figures. We can discuss these, figures, how, how they have impacted us. As I said, that the volumes are basically impacted because, because of a little bit of disruption. And, the impact we've seen, the cost elements which have been circled in red, they are a cause of worry for us because of the other elements of cost, but now I think we will be able to pull it out. Let me put it while we are here, let me put it during the last year, that is calendar 2022, we ran a program which was called as Mission Possible. Every plant was given a target, which was with 10 years of historic data, where we had done the best of our performance. The BDP, that is the Best Demonstrated Practice, was taken as the benchmark. And then we gave these targets, and we worked along with our teams to see that how we can reach and replicate the same performances this year. And I'm very happy to say that, our cement plants have done a fantastic job, both in terms of power and fuel. And, these results will be, you know, permanently embedded. So this is not one-time change which has happened, but this is change is permanent in nature, and, we should be able to, do lower GJ close to about 3.07, 3.06, and, you know, in the, so power also close to about 70 units. So we should be able to start doing, this, as in future also. Coming to the next slide. So you can see in this, the waterfalls, which we have created here, the major impact is on account of power and fuel. Despite consumption factors being improving, the cost of the input costs have been higher, and, because of the inventory we carried for a higher cost inventory, so that has impacted us. But I think this is temporary in nature, nothing to worry. This will get reversed very soon, because we are fully focused and committed on seeing to that, you know, we can reduce our consumption factor. Coming to the next slide 10. Net cash is about INR 1.4 to INR 1.5 billion, which I mentioned, and how it compiles and how it piles up. From this year, two tranches of payments, which will be having to given to the UP government, which has, there is a loan, which is an interest-free loan to us. So INR 336 and INR 629 will go out in this financial year. So this is where we stand. Coming to the slide 11. Happy to inform you that, you know, under the government of Madhya Pradesh, state government had announced that, you know, auctioned certain mines which were adjoining to our mines. It is, it was, you know, since it was a close mine, which were adjoining to our existing mine, there was interest for us to, you know, have it, and we bid also. We had to bid aggressively against this bid. But then finally, we ended up paying 100% premium on that. But still, I would say, it will extend the life of this plant significantly, and it will add more value, and it will open up additional scope for us to expand this plant in the near future, which we are taking. You know, we have told you already that on line number three, we have to do a debottlenecking. So now the team has been given the go-ahead. So now this year, we will be doing some work on it and placing orders of the equipment. So the next year, we should be able to bring this on stream. Coming to the slide 12. Our road volumes have been, you know, percentages been almost same, 49% to 50% we always manage between road and rail, so nothing much change here. Premium products has always been focus for us. Luckily, you know, we were good enough, you know, with our team's thought process, we could launch a new bag in between, like, Power is on the upper end side, and in between, there was a vacuum. So we wanted to fill up this vacuum in between. Because, Power now, from first January, it is INR 55 a bag higher than the normal bag, and this is about INR 15 a bag, Primo, Mycem Primo, which is there. So we, you know, position one more product in between, and that has seen good traction happening in the brand area. So I think the team will be able to get more and more volumes. There is no cannibalization, I would say, on Mycem Power by introduction of this. Mycem Power continues to run its shine in its own glory, and Mycem Primo is creating a new segment of, you know, reaching out or building a new customer segment for us. Coming to coal percentages, I don't want to talk too much on this, because this is a technical issue. Ultimately, the team has to manage the lower possible cost on whether it is coal or pet coke today. The coal and pet coke are close to about per 660 GJ to 670 GJ, which is almost. Now, you can switch over between each of them, but then there are economically advantages and disadvantages of using coal and pet coke. Higher ratio of pet coke has its own advantages... and, disadvantages and vice versa for coal also. So, that, we internally, we manage this, and we see to it that we can help to get the lowest possible of, fuel cost for our per ton of clinker. Trade continues to be around INR 75 to INR 76, which is there. But the focus in future will be to more focus on trade and, not on non-trade. Despite that, we knowing very well that the next year, in 2024, there will be a government push, more and more push on infrastructure, and there will be more and more cement, which will be required under non-trade. But since it is a price difference, today, in this last quarter also, the price difference has been more than INR 600 to INR 650 tons between trade and non-trade in realizations. So I would say that, you know, it is our duty to see that we sell our whatever product available at the best possible price. But anyway, we can always rejig this. Happy to inform you that, you know, the Apex India Safety Award was conferred on our Jhansi Plant, and this is one more feather in our cap. And now coming to the outlook. See, India remains... We all know that it is the fastest-growing economy in the world, and I think it will continue to stay like this. Cement demand in government projects will increase in 2023, because, you know, in 2024, you are having the election, so... And the budget is also being, you know, supporting that, it is complementing this by the government's allocation, the way they have come under Awas Yojana and whether it is infrastructure or it is logistics transport, 100 logistics excellence projects have come in. So I think this is one area where we will see. Rabi crop has been good, so you know, it will get to pep up the rural demand. Fuel prices are softening, so there is a little better improvement in this, which we have. The only fear is that, you know, if the government demand does not come up, then we can have a little bit of a problem, but I don't see it relenting in any way in this quarter or the quarters to come in the future. The GST, there is one silver lining here, that is, there is a probability of a GST reduction. But yes, I say that, you know, there will be a reduction, but it will be responsible, the cement manufacturer will be responsible for giving away this GST back to the consumers. So it might have its own, I don't, I, you know, cement will become more affordable. It will become more affordable if we can increase the consumption alone by this method. I think we should not become greedy about taking any share out of the GST, and we should look at, you know, increasing the consumption of cement. That would be my way of looking at it. Last but not the least, let me inform you that this will be my last address to you as a Managing Director of the organization, as I have decided to demit office on 31st March. It has already been announced in the to the SEBI. And to the stock exchanges, we have announced it. The board has approved my resignation, accepted my resignation, and agreed to relieve me from 31st of March. Post that, Joydeep will take over as the Managing Director of the organization. And right now, Joydeep is as a Chief Operating Officer, already appointed for there. There is a period of, you know, takeover, and I will make sure that, you know, the entire support is given to him, and then he takes over, and very smoothly, the transition becomes smooth on this. So this is all I have to say, and a big thank you to all of you for being supportive all the time, and look forward to your continued support in the future, too. Any questions here? Very happy to answer. Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch tone telephone. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. First question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead. Thank you, sir. Sir, just wanted to know in terms of the volume decline that we are seeing. So not only for this quarter, even if I look at for the nine months also, we are seeing a 9.5% volume drop. At the same time, in terms of the trade share for this quarter, has also declined significantly to 76%, versus last quarter, FY23, was 83%, so 7% decline there. And in terms of the premium share, also has declined to 40% from the 55%. So just wanted to understand what is going wrong, and how do we, one can see what's your outlook on this? So let me answer your question in the reverse order. In terms of our premium, there was an accounting change, okay? We had introduced this new brand, okay? And there was some method of computing, which we were doing, so that is not actually 57. Now, this is the true picture, which is on the total trade volume. So you can now take this figure as a correct figure rather than taking the 57. There was a computing wheel, which, the, the way it was computed is one of those, you know, different, and this time the computation is different. But you can see that there is a consistent growth in the vendor, in, in the premium products, which is in there. If you look at the volume, there has been a consistent growth. So that if you take it the absolute volumes also, you can see that difference. Coming to the volumes of last nine months, yes, yes, I agree with you. And last month, the last quarter we lost, which of course, I had mentioned to you because of some warehousing issues, some small, you know, issues which we were not able to manage. Some changes in the warehouses has happened, some people have come, moved and, yes, so some days of loss of sales which has happened. Coming to the earlier quarters, yes, but now you should also look at, at how we have improved over quarter-on-quarter. Okay, on quarter-on-quarter, we have improved by almost 10%, so there is a trajectory of an improvement. So those—I, I would say that, you know, the past has relevance, but the trend also has a much more to be looked at it, that is the company doing its job to ensure that it comes back on its business trajectory back and of course. So I think that the organization is there. And now we are working with some more inputs, with some, some more advisors and consultants on, you know, market issues, where in this quarter the work has begun. So I think in the quarters ahead, you will see some very positive results, coming out of the efforts of the management. I'm sure you will see that. So I'm not concerned about, worried about this. But yes, as I mentioned to you, that, capacities have increased. So sometimes what happens, some competitors become very aggressive. So some people are there who have hit our volumes adversely by bringing the prices at a very, very low prices. So the team was not prepared all of a sudden to change its, product mix or, you know, I would say, the pricing strategy, and that is how we get impacted. But these are all temporary. I would say these are not - these are tactical issues. Any new brand comes, whether they-- sometimes we are unlucky, somebody else will be unlucky, somebody will focus in my market, somebody next time I will focus in their market. So it's a battle which keeps going on, in a fair and competitive working environment. There is no harm in, you know, being competitive and trying to protect your share. I am sure the Heidelberg has a history, strong testimony, that Heidelberg has always remained on a good trajectory. We have delivered years and years of continuous improvement in volumes. I'm sure we will get back, bounce back, and should not be a problem. So, sir, continuing on this, so, how do one see the fourth quarter in terms of the volumes? So this quarter we did INR 1.1 million in terms of the volume. So Q4, how do we see? So as a – just wanted to understand as a full year, how much decline one can see, and at the same time, when we are seeing there is an accounting issue in the premium sales. So is it possible for you to release the historical quarterly premium share with the revised accounting to make it more comparable? Sure, we will give you that. Not a problem. How we computed it and how we arrived at it, that we'll give you the details. Yeah. So, in terms of the Q4 how do we see in terms of the volume? In the Q4 I'm sure that, you know, there will be a positive improvement. I don't think we should be anywhere in the negative. Okay. And in terms of the pricing, so there also, this quarter, we have seen a decline in the realization. So, two things, have you seen any price increase post December? And the current prices, are they still lower than the average of the Q3? And the last is on the costing power and fuel kcal basis, what's the cost for the third quarter on kcal and, how it is trending currently? So on the cost, on the side of the cost, we are better off than last year. So we will see a positive impact on the cost side. On the price side, I think the price should start looking up. It has started looking up in some places. In South, it has started moving up. Now I can see that this trajectory will continue in central India also. Is it possible to share the kcal cost for the Q3 and what it is currently trending? Okay. So, you know, I can give you, in the December quarter, this from kcal value, it was around INR 2.85. And, we have seen that in December quarter it was slightly lower than our September quarter. And, considering the softening of the imported petcoke and coal prices in the import market, we also foresee that there may be some slightly reduction in the coal and petcoke prices in the March quarter. Okay, got it. And on the Gujarat expansion, anything you want to highlight, sir? So on the Gujarat expansion, you know, the ToR, we have not yet got the ToR, but we have started the data collection. So the December, February end, by February end, we will get, and by March, we should be able to apply, go for a ToR. So, this is on the right path which we are going. We are talking to the government also on this. Hopefully, we should see that, you know, the project, we collect the data and we can get our ToR and start some activities there. Okay. And you mentioned, Sir, the debottlenecking. So, what would be the, in terms of the quantification, how much, increase in the capacity at, grinding or the clinker level are we looking at? And, what kind of a CapEx are we looking at? 250,000 to 200,000 tons of clinker should be additionally available for us. Sorry, sir, 200? 2 lakh. 2 lakh. Okay, 2 lakh. By when? But that will happen in only 2024 now, because- Uh. The placement of equipment and the delivery period of the equipment itself is long. Construction is not a problem. The project is ready with us. Now we have to get apply, because, you know, when the capacity goes up, we have to apply for some approvals also, for the license also, for the capacity to increase. Then these are the problems, you know, which are statutory in nature. We cannot circumvent that. So, so currently, what's the clinker capacity? So are we operating the Karnataka one clinker, or, we are not operating? So what's the current clinker capacity? Karnataka is not operating, only Damoh is operating. The capacity is 3.5 or 3.1 million tons? 3.1. 3.1. Okay, okay. Sorry, sir? Central India is 3.1. Sorry, sir, I didn't hear. Not including Karnataka, the total capacity, clinker capacity of the company is 3.5, and Central India, it is 3.1 million ton, which we try to increase by the 200,000 to 300,000 per annum clinker capacity during the bottlenecking at Central India. Okay. Okay, thank you. Thank you. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. Next question is from Ritesh Shah, from Investec. Please go ahead. Yeah. Hi, sir. First, thank you so much for all your insights so far. You have been pretty awesome. Thank you again. So just two questions. One is on the industry. Do you see that LC3 will actually see light of the day? That's the first question. Like, is it the industry which is against it, or how should we understand that? Which one? I could not get you. Sir, calcined clay. Calcined clay, or LC3 cement. Okay, this is your question. Uh, You know, the calcined clay is a good option, but the amount of type of clays available in our country are consolidated at certain locations. So getting calcined clay cement, making for everybody is not an easy task, okay? So it is not an economical solution, first, number one. So you have to be closer to that because some of these, clay blocks what are available are not homogeneous in nature. They are very, very, they are very heterogeneous. So, you know, you to get, get a good clay is also equally difficult. Another thing is, when we talk about calcined clay cements, okay, we have to also understand the demographics in which we operate. Okay? The quality of cement is little different from the normal cement. So you can use that, those type of cements for masonry cements, okay? But if you start casting concrete and things like that, then you may have a problem there. I would say very simple, that, you know, at the moment, we may make hundreds of products abroad, but the literacy level has to be equally scaled up. Because you use the wrong product at the wrong place, then you will only blame the company that you know, and the persons don't know to read and write, the nations, the user community is very, very, very, I would say, not educated or they don't take care of those things. Responsible behavior on the field is very lacking. So I think, for us right now, there is not an option. Anyway, for us also in Heidelberg, it is difficult to make LC3 cement, because we are not closer to the clay blocks. For some other people who are trying and testing, but nobody has so far placed the product in the market as per my information. In case, if you have some information, somebody has placed it, happy to learn and understand from that. Sure, sir, I'll connect with you, separately for that. Sir, my second question was, when should we expect, any corporate action when it comes to Heidelberg and Zuari as a single entity in India? I think Zuari is at Damoh, that there could be a lot of synergies which are there at the same, top-level management, which is running both the units. How should we look at this, going forward? So Ritesh, as I mentioned, I'll repeat the same thing. There is nothing new which has happened in this, but yes, the group is working on this to merge these two units. It's a question of time. So we will merge these two units under one entity so that we have the financial flexibility and it makes sense for us rather than running two units. So that will happen. It might take another year and a half or so. I would say on a safe side, I am telling you, on a year and a half. Sure, sir. And sir, just last question I'll just close in. Sir, what is the rationale behind the new limestone lease? Are we looking at lease expiries in central India, that is why we went for this, incremental lease? Or is it a basic augmentation of resources? How should we read this? Ritesh, these... Our licenses are valid till 2043. Correct. 43 existing one also, and this new is the top-up. Okay. But, any specific reason? Because it was adjoining our mine. Why should we not take it? Okay. So do we have a- Our presentation also we have given the rationale about this mining lease. It not only increases the life of the mine for the existing operation, but also gives us a kind of opportunity to further expand our clinker capacity as well as the cement capacity. So at this moment, we were selected as a successful bidder. Now we need to complete the entire documentation part and process part; it usually takes around 2 years and 2.5 years to complete and get the mining lease execution, and thereafter, then we need to sign off this mining development and production agreement. And once we complete all this process, then in the meantime, we'll explore possibility whether we want to go for the higher life of the plant, which is currently maybe around 25, 27 years, which may further add by 20 years, or we can also have the opportunity to increase the clinker capacity. So it is the kind of winning situation for the company that not only it will save the limestone reserve, but at the same time it increase the capacity of the company. Sure, sir. That's, that's useful. Thank you so much. Wish you good day. Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one. Next question is from Prateek from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Hello. Yeah, Prateek Sir, my first question is on, your volume numbers. So can you just explain, a bit more on the volume loss in this quarter because of logistics issue, and how much- how many days of impact was there between during the quarter? About 10 days of impact is there in some local areas, which are high, high volume areas are there. There was an impact. I mentioned it earlier also. I have nothing more to add on this. Sure. Okay. In terms of other expense, during the quarter, while on a year-on-year basis, it looks like sort of stable, but what does go into other expense on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which is impacting other expense more in Q3 versus like other quarters? So you are right, that other expenditure, if compared to December 2021 quarter, it is more or less on similar amount. September, as compared to September, it has increased, but you will also appreciate that during the December quarter, generally, we take our kiln plant shutdown. So this, this amount has increased on account of stores and spares and consumables. During this time, generally, we change our refractories, we change our grinding media. So this cost in December quarter, always you will see that, okay, other expenditure as compared to September quarter, is high. For quarter basis, yes, because of the some volume impact of 2% to 3%, it looks that, okay, quarter basis is higher by maybe INR 10, INR 12, INR 20. But in absolute terms, this is more or less of the fixed nature or maybe semi-fixed nature. So this amount is similar to what we incurred in December 2021 quarter. And the last question on capacity. So we are looking at raising 3.1-million-ton capacity or 3.5-million-ton capacity by 0.3 million ton by fiscal 2025, and cement capacity goes up from 6.2 to how much? This 200,000 tons of clinker will result into close to about 350,000 tons of cement. Is it an incremental capacity or just sweating the capacity, more current capacity more? The current capacity will be incremental capacity only. This we added now. No, I mean, putting more... I mean, we have, like, 6.26 million ton capacity, which seems like high versus your- Go up. By addition of this, the capacity will go up. Okay. So, 0.3 million ton expansion in cement, and 0.2 in clinker by fiscal 2025? Yes, almost. Can be better because the project report is given this, but normally we try to always over-exceed this, because the manufacturer will stand guarantee to a certain amount based on the equipment. But normally, we still, you know, if you look at our kiln also, is a 5,000 TPD, but we shoot it at about 5,700 consistently. So, you know, I don't want to give you those figures, because normally these are the, you know, benefits which we are, as a management, are supposed to derive out of an equipment. So that is where the technology... The technology can give you a certain amount of assurance, but, you know, again, your management capability can drive it to a better place, level. On the brand positioning, your, like, this Mycem Power, you said INR 45 higher versus the normal brand, and Mycem Primo is higher by INR 15. How does Mycem Power, like, compare to, like, other graded brands in your market, like, like, say UltraTech and ACC, and maybe, JK Cement brands might be, new for your market? I cannot tell you, because this is a premium product. Every company has a different placement. Okay? So not many companies are into this, but there are some people who are there. Their share of volumes is some companies are doing more volumes, some companies are doing lesser volumes. Today, I would say these, most of the brands in this, premium segment should be anywhere INR 20 minimum above their normal brand. INR 20, and anything, it can go to INR 60 also. So this is the range. Some brands will price their product INR 20 to INR 20 higher than the normal, and some companies may go up in between INR 20, INR 30, INR 60, like that also. I know. I was asking regarding Mycem Power's pricing versus UltraTech's normal brand in the market. For us, UltraTech will be the normal to normal, if you're talking about it, you know, we will be close to about INR 2, INR 3, INR 5 difference here and there. So Mycem Power will be like INR 44 higher than UltraTech normal brand? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway, at least INR 30 to INR 35 more. Even if you are supposed to, suppose in some markets, we will be INR 5 or INR 10 lower than UltraTech in some markets where we are stronger. I would say the, you reduce this INR 10 from the INR 45, and it will be close to INR 35. Sure, sir. These are the questions. Thank you. Thank you. Anyone with a question may press star and one. Next question is from Jaspreet Singh Arora from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead. Yeah, Hi, Sir. Good afternoon. Thanks for the opportunity. The fuel cost inflation for the quarter is well understood from the slide. Possible to give the similar spike in the nine months? Nine months, raw material cost is up, overall cost is up INR 700. How much would that be fuel and the others? We need to calculate that nine months, I'll have to calculate. I don't have it readily available. But I think in public result, we have given the nine months also, figure is already there. Yes, that's what I'm saying, the gross, the gross realization, total cost, EBITDA per ton, all is there. So total cost has gone up INR 700 per ton, nine months, over nine months. How much of that is fuel? So for the quarter, fuel is up INR 300 out of INR 370, for the quarter. I'm just trying to understand. I mean, I can do just look at the last Q3s. I just thought in case you have that handy. Average fuel cost is, you know, like, previous quarter was, the cost per, fuel cost per ton of cement was INR 1,357. Prior to that, in June, March, it was INR 1,096, INR 414, about INR 1,414, then INR 1,350, and then this is INR 1,265, close to that, December quarter. INR 42 over last year. Because from March to December quarter, INR 980 was the December quarter, okay? And this year it is INR 1,260. We need to calculate per ton this. Per ton, the fuel cost per ton of cement INR 1,260 to INR 1,750. INR 1,260 to INR 1,750. INR 9, 980, so almost 50% increase, maybe 40% increase. 40% increase is there, nine one versus nine months. Nine months, yeah. Jaspreet, when we compare the nine months YTD, December 2022, as compared to December 2021, roughly on the face of the public result, it comes around 40% increase on per ton basis. Okay, got it. Good. On account of inventory change, but, inventory change also not significant in nine months, which is last year, nine months. So we can take, fairly, we can take that 40% increase in the fuel cost is there in the market. Okay, sir. Okay. Possible to share what's the current trend versus the last quarter average? How much softening, if at all, we would have seen? In December, it has softened over September, and I think in the December-January-March quarter, it will further soften. Maybe we can take the ballpark figure of single, maybe mid-digit figure of the percentage of reduction in the petcoke and fuel prices in March quarter. If things look like, because we have seen that, okay, imported petcoke and imported coal prices has reduced, and this could also translate into the domestic market. And we have also seen of late that, Coal India also increased a little bit, the availability of coal for the cement company. So I think on the fuel side, or the power and fuel side, we should not foresee any further increase. Rather, it should be the other way around, which should be beneficial for the company. About 10% reduction you should expect in this quarter, next quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, you think it could go down by 10%, average? That's what you're saying? 10% increase. Okay, fine. Okay, got it. On the realization front, anything you can share? How the current, at least a month, year to date, January to date, is there any improvements in realization? You know, I would say that, you know, just recently there was a little bit of shake-up in the price. Uh-huh. I think we should be able to... You know, we are almost flattish right now, as of now. January was a little flattish. Okay. Lastly, sir, this Gujarat this new greenfield project would mean that it's. I'm just trying to understand where are we and in terms of the so-called clearances and equipment ordering and subsequent whatever. So it's more like a four-year project, or it's much at a much advanced stage? No, no, it will be... It will take its time, because right now the data collection, environmental data collection is going on. So that takes about three months of data collection, so that will get over in February. We will be able to get the report by March. We will be able to go for ToR in the month of, in the month of May or so, okay? O-okay. Once ToR is completed, that will take us about some more time, about a year's time, to get the results. In the meantime, we will have to start working on the project. And, you know, we'll have to do a little bit of. Now, right now, so far, we have not bought any land or anything, but maybe in the next year, we'll have to look at, this next financial year, we'll have to look at doing something there. This is a long-time process that will take place. It will not happen overnight. Although the project is, we are, for, you know, wanting to, raring to go on this. Okay. But then there are certain limitations always there, because statutory clearances and all these things are not within our hands. Our June application is still pending with the government, and, you know, we will be getting it done in this week or so. We may get some hearing from them, and we will be able to convince them on certain things, so we can move. So it takes its own time. You know, it's putting up a greenfield project is not a cakewalk. It's quite a tough, uphill task. Yeah, I'm sure. But I guess the team's been working on it for pretty- Yes. a fair amount of time also, so it's not that. It's, the preparation started a year back. We cannot go, we can't go for a mining plan till we get the approval from the government. Sure. Sure. The June application, once it comes to me, then I will go for a mining plan. Right. That will take another six. Then I will go for a tour. Then I will go... So it is a chain- Sure of events which just are nested inside. So if you make a bar chart for the timeline, you know, we see that, you know, at any one point we get stuck up, everything comes to a halt. Sure. Sure. And would you be able to comment on the size, or it will only- 3 million ton. Sorry, sorry? 3 million ton. 3 million ton, you're saying, right? Okay. Yeah. Okay. Now, typically, the way, I mean, we've seen companies do it, it's like, they plan for a much bigger. Obviously, I was just trying to understand, could it be a three + three? That's, that's the way you could, ultimately envision it, or are you just saying it, it would be only INR 3 million tons for- Huh? When I say +3, obviously, I mean, expandable to another 3 or after a couple of years. The thing is, you know, there is no... The limestone reserves are huge. You can go three plus three plus three, no problem. Okay. But, you know, just to look at first, even let us first cross the first stage- Okay of INR 3 million. I would say, I will not give you some assurances which, Sure, sure, sure. If you... Because, you know, today there is a, because this comes closer to the coastal area, so you can't- Right Go below the sea level. Mean sea level, you can't go below that. So the government does not approve so easily. But future, they will approve, I think. So that time you'll have more reserves out of it. Sure. Let us get the INR 3 million ton going, which will take us another 3.5 to 4 years to go, I would say. Got it. Got it. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir, for all that answering, and best wishes for your career ahead. Thank you, Sir. Thank you. Anyone who has a question may press star and one. Next question is from Sanjay Nandi, from Ratnabali Investment Private Limited. Yeah, thank you for the opportunity, Sir. Sir, can you throw some lights on the current pricing of the Petcoke? Pardon? Can you throw some light on the current pricing of Petcoke? Current pricing of Petcoke? I think in- Yeah, what are the basis? Maybe around INR 20,000 to INR 21,000 per ton. Hmm. INR 21,000. And what has been this level on the exit of last quarter? Last quarter, it was expensive by around INR 2,000 to INR 2,500. 2000. Thank you, sir. Thank you so much, sir. Thank you. Next question is from Utkarsh Nopany, from Haitong Securities. Please go ahead. Yeah, Hi. Good afternoon, Sir. So first question is that, like, we observed that the cement demand in the central region has been quite weak for the past few quarters. Can you throw light, like, why the demand is weak in the central region? And how it is likely to shape up in this current March quarter in FY 2024, over a weak base? Yeah, I think, you know, the MP government was a little weak on government demands. Now, I think this will start. After the investors' meet, recent investors' meet called by the Chief Minister, I think there is some traction which we are going to see in the near, very, very future. Plus, there are state elections also there. So, you know, we can see, we can expect some good movement to happen on cement. This year, this year, the Rabi crop is good, so I can very for, for 100% tell you that the rural demand is going to be, you know, significantly, well, you can see this going to happen very soon. So post-Holi, you can say that, you know, after this Holi takes place and the grain starts coming to the market, April should see a very good movement. March, government should do the spending part of it. I think the budgets will expire, so the February and March, we should see by end of... between end of February to March end. I think, and even till first fortnight of April, because the supply will keep going. I think we should see a very good demand coming up. Okay. Sir, can you quantify what would be the demand growth rate in central region in FY 2023, and what is our expectation for FY 2024? The expectation for 2024 is about 7%. Okay. Despite the weak base of FY23? Yes. Okay. And what would be for FY23, Sir? FY 2023 should, let me check up. It should be about 6%, 5.5%, 6%. Okay. Sir, second question is that, like, our realization has gone down by 2.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis in December quarter. Can you give some sense, like, how the cement prices have behaved in central region in December quarter, sir? December quarter for has been okay. I think there was some volume pressure was there because of the festivities. So there was a price pressure was there, but now I think that is easing up. ... so whether the cement prices in the entire region has gone down? Yeah. Because the biggest problem is, you know, the capacities are coming in on steam. Everyone wants to place their product in the market, and I don't blame anybody for that. You know, if the competition is becoming severe, okay, the first victim of this is the price. So any region which sees a significant capacity add up, you look at it, this market in 2020 was close to about INR 60 million ton. Okay? By 2024, 2025, it is going to be about INR 90 million ton of capacity, which is going to come between INR 65 to INR 90. It's almost a significant jump in the capacities getting added into central India. And this is building up a pressure. I think, you know, but anyway, for HeidelbergCement, I always tell my team that, you know, we should not be bothered about what the competition comes in. We are the senior citizens of this state. We have been here. We should be able to retain our channel partners and our customers better than anybody else can do. A newcomer should not be a threat to us. I would say he was a welcome to us. At least, they will bring some prosperity to the state. But as a senior person operating in this region, as an organization, we are senior, I would say, in this market, and we should not be worried about that. We have a brand equity, we have a good placement of product, we have got a good channel partners. I think little bit of tweaking with them and little bit of working with them. Because this, during the COVID period, we did not do many of the things, like, you know, meeting dealers, the dealers conferences were avoided, some gift schemes were had come down, advertising had not happened. Now, all that is gone, and now in this call, this, from now onwards, we have started set sail to, you know, see to it that we come back with a vengeance in the market. Okay. Sir, like, if I understand correctly, you are saying that the regional capacity is likely to go up from INR 65 to INR 90 million ton, whereas the demand is just likely to grow at 7% rate. So does this mean that this pricing pressure, which we saw in December quarter, is likely to persist over the medium term, sir, because of oversupply situation? This is the capacity, almost INR 3 million ton of capacity getting INR 4 to INR 5 million ton of capacity getting added every year. So it is not INR 30 to INR 31, it's not become in 1 year. It has happened in the last 4 years. Okay. Maybe it will continue. Even next two to three years, it will continue, maybe INR 4 to INR 5 million ton every year. I would say that, you know, look at the market shortage of clinker. Today, the market is running short of clinker in this region. People are selling clinker, more clinker than cement. Okay. Sir, lastly, like, we were planning to come up with a greenfield unit in Zuari Cement in Karnataka. Can you throw light on that, sir? That was, that was you are talking about Zuari part? Yes, sir. Not HCIL part. Regarding Zuari Cement, Sir. Zuari, I refrain from commenting on a call on for HCIL. Okay, sir. Sorry for that. Yeah. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Next question is from Kamlesh Bagmar from Lotus Asset Management. Please go ahead. Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. So one question with regard to our tax incentives or GST incentives, which is, which are going to expire in this February. So can you highlight how much was the incentive which we had booked in the nine month and the last quarter? I would say it will set us back. Once it is withdrawn, it will set us back by about INR 40 a ton. Okay, so INR 40 per ton margins would not be there post-February, provided the prices remain the same. It is, it is considered INR 2 a bag, nothing big. You can pull this out anytime. Yeah. Yeah. And Sir, secondly, like, if assuming, like, in Gujarat, over the next 6 to 12 months, like, say, a large capacities get announced, so would we be very committed on our, this Gujarat projects or not? Because I believe that there are, let's say, 3, 4, 2-3 big projects are going to come up on the capacity addition in Gujarat. So would we, would we be committed on those, on the project which we are looking at? Because anyway, over the last Q2, Q3, we have been saying that this particular project is going to take more than three to four years of time. So would we be committed on that, if, say, like, say, INR 8 to INR 10 million ton of new capacities get added or announced by our peers in the Gujarat market? No problem. We still say everybody's putting capacity. We'll also put capacity. Where is the problem? I don't see any reason for us shying away from this. Okay. And, like, say, on the mine which we have won, Sir, in adjacent to our current location in central market, so would we be announcing any capacity addition, or would it be just replacing our current mine? No, no, no. Current mine is there. This is in addition to that. So which Mr. Sharma also explained that, you know, and in the presentation is there, that, you know, we are looking at that. We have three lines in Damoh, line one, two, and three. Line one is a very old one, which is now very old, it is 1,600 TPD line. Okay? That is a— It is a very good opportunity for us to look at scrapping that line and building a new line in that place, in its place, which will be more fuel efficient and everything. Plus, this mines will support that, to, you know, accelerate us in the Central India. Because Central India, we enjoy a better synergy than anywhere else.... So we will take a call on this, but it is again, as I said, you know, 24 months down the line. First, let us get the agreements done, paper done. Now this new line, we will start buying the land in that area. That is not a problem, because it is adjoining and we have to open up the mines. No sooner this consent is given to us and papers are there, we will do that. So, you know, I think this will be a good occasion for us to add capacity and a capacity of a better quality. Mm-hmm. So the current mine, how much reserves do we have, or how much years of life can it support for the current capacity? Current capacity is, you know, right now, the existing mines, what we have, it cover close to about 24 to 25 years of the limestone reserves we have. We are, as I mentioned in my earlier comments also, that, you know, we are using a very significant amount of limestone reject, which comes out, by supplementing it by sweetener. So we are using that to extend the life of the mines. If I might have spoken to you, or you might have heard me about four, five years also earlier there, when I mentioned to you that we have been able to increase the life of our mines by almost seven years. By using the rejects, yeah. Now, the only problem is, little bit of problem is, you know, managing the as the mines, we are approaching the end of the mines on certain sites where the mining plan has been made. Maybe there was a little bit of geological miscalculation which has happened, so we are getting little bit of more improvement on LSF when we do it, so we have to buy little more sweetener. But in this quarter, the sweetener has gone up little bit. Now we will try to control that sweetener also in this quarter and the corresponding subsequent quarter also. Okay. Thanks a lot, sir. Thanks a lot. Thank you. Anyone who has a question at this time, may please press star and one. Please note that this is the final reminder for questions, and no further reminders will be placed after this. Next question is from the line of Harsh, from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead. Yeah, thank you for the opportunity, sir. I have just, just one small question. What is the CapEx budget we have planned for this ongoing fiscal and for FY24? Thank you. For CapEx. Well, generally, we keep the CapEx into two part. One is the sustainable CapEx, and that is around INR 40 crore for this fiscal year as well as the next fiscal year. And on top of that, next year, there will be around INR 15 crore CapEx on account of this clinker debottlenecking. So we can consider that next year, this CapEx will be around INR 55 crore for the fiscal year. Including AFR? Including AFR. Thank you. Thank you. Next question is from Vishal Periwal from IDBI Capital. Please go ahead. Vishal, your line is unmuted. Please proceed with your questions. Yeah, I'm audible now? Yes. Yeah. So thanks a lot for the opportunity. I think two questions on the particular in the pricing front. How has been the pricing so far in January and February for us in our region? And second, you mentioned south region has seen a bit of a price hike. So which region and what, if possible, to quantify that, Sir? Well, the entire region, south, below, I think the prices have gone up by about INR 10 to INR 125 to INR 130 a ton on an average. Has gone up very recently. So, I can see that there is this sort of a moment when it happens in south, central also starts seeing it. January was flattish, February should improve. So far, we have not seen too much of an improvement in central India, but let us see. You know, we expect that, you know, some price hikes, we should be able to take now. It all depends on... Because, you know, today also the market is running at a little softer end, okay? You know, you would say that, you know, the capacity utilizations in central India are a little better off than than south, but then, you know, central India was operating at 80% plus capacity utilization. Right now, it is subdued to around INR 75 to INR 73. So I think once the capacity utilization starts improving, so we will see, for, for your company, for HeidelbergCement, we are doing a relatively good capacity utilization, in so far as of now. Thank you. Next question is from Tanuj Pandya from Dolat Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, sir. Wanted some data points. What is the CapEx for Q3? Okay. We do not report on quarterly basis, but it is a very normal CapEx. It is not significant. INR 1.4 million or INR 1.5 million. INR 5 crore to INR 6 crore to INR 7 crore. We have done it. INR 7 crore. But not so significant during this quarter. Have I answered your question? Yeah, sir. What was the lead distance for Q3? For INR 350. Okay. Thank you, sir. Bye. Thank you. Next question is from Pranay Kapadia, as an individual investor. This will be our last question for today. Pranay, over- Hello? Hello, thank you for giving me this opportunity. Can you hear me? Yes, please go ahead, Pranay. Yes, sir. Thank you for this opportunity. I just have a small question that, looking at three to five years horizon, what is the compounded growth that you see in the, in terms of top line revenue? That's it. Thank you. Three to five years, top line. It should not be less than 5%. Even if it be grow as per the market, as well as there will be some inflation on account of pricing. So- More than five. We can say 5 + 5. Five, yeah. So 10% should be there. Easily. Okay. Thank you, sir. Also, at this moment last year, or when we talk about the calendar year 2022, the cost has increased significantly. It was not less than 20% for anyone. 18, 18%. But the price has not increased in that direction. So if the moment works in the same direction, there should be within lag effect of 6 months, 12 months, price should, must increase. So- All right. We are very much hopeful that, and pretty convinced, that next three to five years, the top line should increase more than 10% compounding growth. All right. Thank you so much. All the best. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference back to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir. Yeah, thank you. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, we'd like to thank the management of HeidelbergCement India Limited for the call. We'd also like to take the opportunity to wish Mr. Jamshed Naval Cooper all the very best for his future endeavors. We also thank all the participants who joined the call. Aman, you may now conclude the call. Thank you very much, sir. Thank you. Thank you very much, everybody. Thanks a lot. Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.