Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the DiaSorin Full Year 2020 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Carlo Rosa, CEO of DiaSorin. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, operator. Good afternoon to everybody, welcome to the year-end result conference call for DiaSorin. I would like to make an initial statement. This has to do with some rumors that have been reported about the company. It is very clear, as you know, that in line with our strategy, we routinely explore transaction opportunities with strategic partners. This is in order to create long-term value for our shareholders. I will not comment on any rumors about potential M&A transaction until such disclosure is appropriate or required. Now let's move to the discussion about results and how we see the business progressing in 2021. I would like to focus on quarter four. Quarter four is important because it projects company results into 2021. I'm going to comment the results, as you know, as usual, at the constant exchange rate, to avoid any misunderstandings due to the exchange rate that you know has been impacting company results significantly in 2020 because of mainly the dollar fluctuation. In Q4, the first news that we need to discuss is that the ex-COVID business is flat in spite of the second pandemic wave that hit North America and Europe. This is a good news. This means that the routine business that suffered significantly during the first wave now did not really suffer in the second wave. Hospitals and patients especially have learned how to manage their routine testing in spite of the COVID situation. If you look at the COVID business, for us, Q4 was a record quarter. We had over EUR 100 million of revenues, which is very significant. The majority of the revenues were related to our molecular COVID product, the rest was serology. Not only revenues were high product revenues in Q4, but also placement of systems. If we look at the LIAISON XL, we had placed throughout the year more than 600 systems, and in quarter four placement was 180. Again, almost a third of the systems were installed in Q4. When it comes to the LIAISON MDX, the LIAISON platform, similar picture, 650 MDX placed in the year and 200 placed in quarter four. The rate of placement is not stopping, and it continues to progress. When we look at the different geographies, clearly we see a strong growth in U.S. and Europe. This is the effect of base business stabilizing and additional COVID business. China is still weak, but it is a significant improvement compared to previous quarters. China, as you know, for us, as for many other companies, did not represent a COVID opportunity because of the Chinese regulations and the fact that none of the foreign products for COVID have been approved by the China NMPA. Now that we understand the three previous Q4, let's make some statements about 2021. Let's discuss COVID and how we see it. Let's start from molecular diagnostics. We continue to believe that molecular testing remains a gold standard. You know that today two technologies are offered to the patients. One is molecular, the other one is antigen testing. We see molecular because of performance remaining as the gold standard technology inside the labs and inside hospital labs. The antigen opportunity picked up significant business outside the hospital, so in decentralized setting with point-of-care testing. I think it has been brought to everybody's attention recently the fact that the point-of-care antigen testing volume has been suffering significantly. I see one company recently reported 30%-40% decline in antigen testing. If you remember how we did comment technologies for COVID in the last few quarters, we always said that we believe that antigen would have been the first to decline. We believe that there is more resilience on the molecular testing. This is simply because of the fact that it remains within the hospital, the reference technology. In Q1, we see that our ability to ship roughly a million tests a month of molecular COVID tests remain. As it was, we don't see a decline in volume as far as our molecular testing is concerned. Clearly, we focus on the guidance indication. We don't know what to expect in the second half. There are lots of variables that may affect this. For the time being, we keep seeing a strong revenue flow coming from molecular. Let's talk about the second component of our COVID strategy, which is the antigen test. As you know, we have developed an antigen test that was launched in Q4 and that is for routine labs, so not point-of-care, routine labs on the LIAISON XL platform. The product has been CE marked and has been submitted to the FDA for EUA approval. EUA approval has not come yet. This is because the FDA is taking longer than before to approve these products. Today, they are really focused on point-of-care and OTC. We believe that we are close to receiving approval in the next few weeks, but we are still waiting, although we are commercializing in the U.S. the product under EUA, according to the FDA policies. What is the strategy for this product? It's very clear to us that the success of this product is related to the ability of some of the large commercial labs to gain contracts from state for antigen testing for reopening. We see that there is going to be an opportunity for consolidating antigen testing for non-critical care into commercial labs. You have seen that Labcorp, a week ago or so, they issued a press release where they said that they have a partnership with DiaSorin for the LIAISON antigen test, which has been implemented in one of their labs. Together with Labcorp, we expect that Labcorp will get contracts from the reopening, and then we benefit from volume coming in the U.S. with the antigen test. In Europe, we have seen volumes increasing, although soft volumes, and this is because in Germany, there has been a shift from the laboratory testing more into the point of care and OTC. Therefore, we've seen interesting volumes and interesting business develop across Europe, but less than what we originally projected, although it is getting traction in Europe. We don't have the registration of this product still in some of the emerging countries where we believe this is going to be a substitution in those countries where molecular is too expensive, substitution of the molecular testing, and we expect that we're going to receive some of these approvals in Q1, Q2. Let's talk about the third component of the strategy, which is the antibody testing. As you know, we did comment in the last calls that we believe this business, so antibody testing for COVID, is going to be the one that will stay with us in the industry for many years. This is because people are getting vaccinated, and there is going to be a need to test individuals and see how long the vaccine is going to last, how long the protection is going to last. In fact, we see this happening. We see a strong demand for our antibody testing. We see double-digit growth. We have recently launched our new generation of serology, IgG assay, which has been developed on purpose to pick up response after vaccination and as an immuno status monitoring of patients after vaccination. This is the only product on the market that is using the full-length trimeric spike protein of the virus, which is the same protein that is used by the different vaccines, RNA vaccine or the DNA vaccines. This vaccine actually elicited the production by the different cells of the protein that it is recognized by the immune system. That develops an immune response. We believe that we are in line with our expectation with antibody, and we are expecting the approval of the new product in the U.S. in the coming few weeks. Now, I would like to talk about the other strategic products that we have. As you know, throughout 2020, sometimes without too much success, we've been trying to draw the attention of everybody to the fact that COVID is certainly strategic, but then DiaSorin is not a COVID company. Therefore, we have announced throughout 2020 certain partnerships which are strategic. I remind all of you the one with Quidel. Also, we announced the fact that we were completing clinical studies of key products that will be launched in 2021. Specifically, Lyme has been CE marked and the product is being launched these weeks when the season starts. We have a lot of expectations about this product. Clearly, the product will require a strategic endorsement to be issued in certain countries like Germany, for example, that is a big market for Lyme. We are working with our partner, QIAGEN, to expedite some of this work in order to obtain the endorsement and marketing effort in order to let the product known to the physician is in place. We are confident that Lyme, as discussed in our long-term strategic plan, will become one of the key products of our T-cell strategy that we developed with our partner, QIAGEN, and will go in parallel with the tuberculosis product to create a franchise around T-cell. I remind all of you that we believe with QIAGEN since the beginning that TB has been a success, but there is a need to expand around TB the concept of T-cell testing, and this is the commitment that the two parties have discussed many times in the last quarters. The second one is the TB. As you know, tuberculosis was approved in the U.S. at the end of 2019. 2020 has been an interesting year. Notwithstanding pandemic, we were able to close good business in the U.S. together with QIAGEN going after the send out business. Today, there are millions of tests that are sent out from the periphery, from hospitals to the core lab, and our strategic intent was to actually provide these customers with the opportunity of bringing the test in their lab, which happened with success. In 2021, we will see a conversion of certain key customers to the LIAISON technology. The conversion has been managed with the support of QIAGEN, and it was done because we believe that it's very interesting for the two partners to continue to provide customers with the opportunity to use this technology versus older technology or other technologies on the market which clearly are not so favorable in terms of throughput. The third element that I would like to comment on is hepatitis and HIV. As you know, the full line of hepatitis HIV was approved by the FDA by December. We are now in the U.S. in full launch of this product line. There are a handful of companies in the U.S. that are able to provide these products on the automated platform. We believe this is going to be key strategic for DiaSorin because we will be able now to serve all the installed base of LIAISON XL that we installed in 2020 because of COVID in the U.S. now with this product line. We believe there is going to be an accelerated pickup of these products by customers. Not to forget the fact that in the U.S., we work with Beckman. Beckman is our partner for HIV and hepatitis, and they also will pursue a campaign to go after the large accounts with an automation that now Beckman has, and will be able also to implement the use of the LIAISON XL together with the Beckman instrument. 2021, let me just summarize and then I am going to leave the podium to Mr. Pedron. 2021 is going to be an interesting year where we will continue to pursue the opportunity for COVID. As I told you, we will see what is it going to be the second half for COVID. We really don't know because second half testing opportunity is going to be a combination of, I believe, few elements. The first one is the variant that, as you have seen now, is creating a third wave in certain European countries, still not in the U.S. The second element is vaccination. How fast is vaccination going to be performed in Europe? It looks like in the U.S., the U.S. is ahead. Europe is delayed in this drive, and it will have an effect in terms of the adoption of diagnostic testing volumes. The third element is the next season of flu, where we believe that there is going to be a transition from COVID-only product to a mini panel concept, where flu and COVID are going to become routine testing during flu season to monitor respiratory diseases. Now I'm going to leave the podium to Mr. Pedron, who is going to take you through the numbers. Thank you. Thank you, Carlo. Good afternoon. Good morning, everybody. In the next few minutes, as usual, I'm going to walk you through the financial performance of DiaSorin 2020, and I will also make some comments on the contribution of the fourth quarter. As usual, I'd like to start with what I believe are the main highlights of the period. We closed the year with an increase in revenues at constant exchange rate of 27%, some two percentage points above the full-year guidance, which was calling for an increase of 25% CER. Q4 2020 confirms the trend of the previous quarters, a steady recovery in the ex-COVID business, -3% year-on-year at constant exchange rate, and a strong contribution of the COVID franchise, mainly driven by PCR testing. Carlo already went through all of these elements. As expected and anticipated during the last quarter calls, Q4 gross margin ratio at 67.6% of revenues is below what we saw in the previous quarters, mainly because of higher COVID molecular sales, which enjoys slightly lower margins. 2020 full- year gross margin at 68.4% is for the very same reason, slightly lower than 2019, which closed at 69.2%. 2020 full- year EBITDA at EUR 385 million or 43.7% of sales, is slightly better than the guidance. The increase towards 2019 at constant exchange rate is 42%. Q4 2020 EBITDA closed at EUR 128 million or 47% of revenues. Let me please remind you that during Q4 2019, we booked some one-off restructuring costs, which makes the year-on-year comparison at plus 94% CER even more favorable. We keep maintaining our ability to generate a very healthy free cash flow of EUR 232 million in the year, vis-à-vis EUR 118 million in 2020. The net financial position is positive for EUR 305 million, with no debt and EUR 340 million positive cash position. The difference is always between the two is driven by the right of use introduced by IFRS 16. Finally, the board of directors approved to propose the distribution of an ordinary dividend of EUR 55 million, equal to EUR 1 per outstanding share. Now, if we move through the main items of the P&L, 2020 revenue at EUR 881 million grew by 25% or EUR 175 million compared to 2017. COVID revenues contributed for EUR 266 million, 75% of which were PCR driven. Quarter four revenues at EUR 271 million grew by 50% compared to Q4 2019, 55% CER. EUR 100 million or so of revenues were COVID-related, whereas the ex-COVID business at EUR 170 million confirmed the recovery we have discussed about. As expected, the appreciation of the euro against almost all the currencies in which we do business, has caused some material FX headwind in the second part of 2020, therefore closing the year with a negative effect of more or less EUR 15 million. The gross margin at EUR 603 million grew by 23% compared to last year, closing 2020 with a ratio over revenues of 68.4%, 80 basis points below 2019. The decrease in the ratio over revenues is mainly driven by different product mix, lower CLIA sales and higher molecular sales, which we said enjoy slightly lesser margins. The increase of the molecular franchise, 29% of total 2020 sales, as discussed, has been mainly driven by COVID tests. 2020 operating expenses at EUR 267 million or 30% of revenues, have increased by 2.6% or EUR 7 million compared to last year. The OPEX ratio over revenues is 30%, vis-à-vis 37% of 2019. This variance is a result of two effects of opposite signs. On one side, especially in Q2 and Q3, we have had a slowdown of activities and a consequent reduction in costs caused by the widespread lockdown measures that interested all the geographies in which we do business. On the other side, we have sustained an increase in costs. Mainly driven by the investment we made in the U.S. at the beginning of the year, and the commercial team aimed at supporting our hospital strategy. 2020 other operating expenses at EUR 12 million are higher than 2019 by EUR 1 million or 11%. As discussed during Q1 call, the biggest driver of this variance is an unforecasted loss we suffered in South Africa. 2020 EBIT, because of what just described, closed the year at EUR 324 million, with an increase compared to 2019 of EUR 106 million or 49%. The EBIT ratio of our revenue is at 37%, vis-à-vis 31% of 2019. Q4 at EUR 111 million, increased by 112% or EUR 59 million compared to 2019. 2020 tax rate at 22.7% is higher than 2019, which closed at 19%, because of the booking in the last quarter of the previous year of the deferred tax assets related to the intangibles, which we moved to Italy in connection with the shutdown of the Irish manufacturing site. Net of this positive one-off, 2019 tax rate would have been substantially in line with 2020. 2020 net result is EUR 248 million or 28% of revenues compared to EUR 176 million of the previous year, therefore recording an increase of EUR 73 million or 41%. Lastly, 2020 EBITDA at EUR 385 million is better than last year by almost EUR 110 million. The EBITDA ratio on revenues is 44% vis-à-vis 39% of 2019. Q4 closed at EUR 128 million or 47% of revenues. The substantial margin improvement toward last year, both in the full year but even more so in the quarter, is driven by the operating leverage resulting from the increase in revenues, amplified by a muted increase in operating expenses, which in Q4 accounted only for 26% of sales. Let me now please to the net financial position and the free cash flow. We closed the period with a positive net financial position of EUR 305 million and EUR 340 million cash. During the year, the group generated EUR 232 million free cash flow vis-à-vis EUR 180 million in 2019. The year-to-date free cash flow has been affected by an increase in working capital, mainly driven by higher accounts receivable and higher inventory to sustain the COVID testing volume, higher CapEx driven by the acquisition of the TTP license and higher installment of our platforms. All of these are partially offset by lower tax cash out, mainly coming from a positive phasing of tax cash out and the one-off EUR 16 million exit tax we paid in 2019, when we closed our Irish manufacturing site. Lastly, let me please move to 2021 guidance. As usual, at previous year constant exchange rate. We expect for the first half of 2021, total revenue to increase at a rate of around 40% and an EBITDA margin at around 45%. Please consider that because of the impossibility of forecasting the speed of the rollout of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination program, the unknown effect of the potential mutation of the virus, and the possible development of new treatment, we're not in a position to provide a full- year guidance. We will review our projection as time goes by and provide a full 2021 guidance in case and when we will have a better visibility on the evolution of the business in the remainder of the year. Before concluding, please let me remind you that DiaSorin financials are highly exposed to the U.S. dollar, and even more so now that the United States represents 40% of our group sales. Remember as a rule of thumb that for every one cent movement of the U.S. dollar against the euro, DiaSorin revenue moves by about EUR 3.5 million or EUR 4 million on a yearly basis. Let me please turn the line to the operator to open the Q&A session. Thank you. Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the Q&A session. The first question is from Catherine Tennyson with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I have three, if I may. My first one, Carlo, as you mentioned earlier, some diagnostic players in the U.S. have been talking about a substantial drop-off in antibody testing volumes. Can you just give us a little bit more color on the molecular demand that you've seen, in particular in January and the February exit rate this year? I recall in Q3, there was an ambition to reach the 1 million molecular tests a month mark by the end of the year, with the potential of expanding that to 1.2 million by the end of this quarter. Given you have visibility on H1 now, given the guide, what levels of capacity are you baking into that number? Then just finally, what level of base business recovery is baked into that, please? Thank you. Yes. As far as the molecular volume, I believe I made a comment during my speech, which I am happy to repeat. We don't see a decline as antigen testing companies have been discussing about antigen test. Today, as we have discussed in the last call, we got to the 1 million, give or take per month volume of distributed product worldwide, of which I would say is almost 60% is North America, 40% is the rest of the world. We have a capacity of roughly 1.2 million tests, and so we are working at 90% capacity, give or take. We believe that in the first half, we should be able to continue to sell roughly 1 million tests of molecular. We have no visibility whatsoever on the second half, and this is why we are not commenting year-end, if not by a concept. To me, it's very clear that COVID will become part of the differential diagnosis for respiratory disease. It's going to be relevant in the next flu season, notwithstanding the fact that vaccination is going to be hopefully widely available. Differential diagnosis between COVID and flu is going to be implemented. Therefore, we believe that the business, the COVID-only testing is going to be switched to COVID plus flu. Let me remind you something very interesting that we noticed. As everybody knows, in 2020, as a result of all the measures that have been adopted by people in terms of behavior, masks, and so forth, flu temporarily disappeared. There was no flu. Even in our projections on manufacturing, where we had volume that was dedicated to flu, eventually we converted that volume to COVID because flu simply was not there. We believe that in 2021, we expect that in the respiratory flu season, availability of vaccine and the fact that certain restrictions are not going to be there. We're going to see more flu in the next season. When it comes to the antigen, what has been discussed by certain companies, I said already in 2020 that my expectation was that antigen would be the first one to go. This is because eventually we all understand that antigen testing has pros and cons. The pros is that it can be decentralized much faster than diagnostics. The con is certainly that. Sorry about the noise. The con is certainly that there is a sensitivity issue with the technology, and that technology becomes viable only if you increase the frequency of testing. I'm not surprised at all by the fact that antigen testing is softening whereas for the time being, molecular testing is holding up. As far as our forecast for the 2021, I believe the fundamental assumption is that the current business, non-COVID volumes should go back in line to what they were in 2019. Clearly, you're going to still have a little lingering effect in quarter one, and then you're going to see a pickup of that volume to where it used to be related to the deployment of the vaccine. The question, though, that is interesting has to do with China, because I don't know if you noticed, but there are no news at all on China. What we see from our business is that there are certain regions of China where lockdowns are implemented. When there's a lockdown in China, your base business suffers. Other regions where the situation is more relaxed and you see business as usual. Unfortunately, lockdowns happen in very populated areas where there is a lot of business, and this is why we see a recovery of China that is slower than the rest of the European and the U.S. countries. Last but not least, vaccination in China, we have no idea how it goes. Data shows that they're very slow in vaccinating people, so they're relying more on hard lockdowns. We had two to five hotspots. As far as China is concerned, we're still taking the numbers, volumes that are below the 2019 numbers. That's super helpful. Thanks very much. The next question is from Scott Bardo with Berenberg. Please go ahead. Thanks very much for taking my questions. The first question, please, just relates to the nature of guidance that you've given this year. I appreciate that this is not a normal year for DiaSorin, but it was my understanding through previous conversation that you were looking to give a COVID and non-COVID guidance for the full year. I wonder if or what changed your mind in the way that you guide. The second related question, please. Of this 40% growth that you now guide for the first half, clearly very good growth. I think that this can be broadly achieved via normalization of your base business and the current runway of molecular, assuming no incremental year-over-year growth in serology. I guess the nature of the question is, can you please help us outline, or outline, please, what is your explicit assumption for serology and for antigen tests within the H1 guide, please? Last question, please, Mr. Rosa. Clearly appreciate that you don't want to comment on bid speculation, of course. However, I think it is no secret that you want to deploy capital for M&A opportunity. Can you help share with us, please, what you believe the financing power of the business is, what leverage you believe is a comfortable leverage for the company, and whether you would entertain issuing equity if the right target come along? Thank you. I would ask Mr. Pedron to actually take the first two questions, and then I'm going to comment on rumors and what Scott has been asking on financing. PG. Yes, I will take the first two questions. Thank you, Carlo. Scott, I believe that the thing is, there are really a lot of moving parts, and being more specific in terms of what part of the growth in H1 2021 is going to be driven by COVID and which part by ex-COVID. Inside COVID, which part by molecular, by IgG, IgM testing, and which part by antigen is very difficult. There are many moving parts. I believe you really need to allow us here some flexibility. Also looked at what other peers which have reported before us have done in terms of giving COVID and non-COVID guidance. I believe the majority of them, if not the vast majority, didn't give that kind of breakdown. Obviously we've run several different model simulations, what can go up, what can go down. Again, there are so many moving parts that we feel comfortable playing all of our different models with a 40% upside H1 on H1. I believe that we really didn't feel like we wanted to go down into the detail of what is COVID and molecular, what is antigen or immuno, and what the rest. Okay. Let me take the one on M&A. Look, it is very clear that DiaSorin has an ambition to grow and diversify its product portfolio. It is very clear that, although we want to maintain our key characteristic of a specialty company, because that is what makes DiaSorin special, unique in the space. That is what our customer base is appreciating. If I can just give you a strategic direction, there is where we see ourselves potentially moving with the expanding product portfolio by internal efforts or by external acquisitions. The second point I would like to make is that, what COVID did to us is certainly make the molecular franchise more relevant and more significant than it was pre-COVID. As discussed, we have developed a business that originally was a U.S.-based business. We developed that business into Europe to a point that today, 40% of our turnover, molecular turnover, is coming from European opportunities where the vast majority of new customers. By the end, COVID is clear. COVID, and I really hope it's going to go away, and it's going to become part of a respiratory panel. About the data and the customers that we need to serve with products. As you know, we do have in mind and in the company, we have an internal effort to develop a new generation of the MDX platform. The MDX platform, which has been a very successful platform, clearly was developed almost 10 years ago, and we are undertaking the effort of developing the MDX second generation platform, which we expect is going to be launched sometime in 2022. That will replace the current MDX. We are working on the fact that we believe technology for multiplexing is needed if you want to become a player in the space. The current strategic development, we believe that decentralization and point-of-care for this space is going to happen, is happening. We believe that the current platforms were designed for a certain level of decentralization, which is not what we have seen with COVID, with doing testing in parking lots. Strategically, we are also looking into the development of that kind of platform. This is where our M&A, combination of internal development, M&A activity, licensing activity, and strategic partnership is going. In terms of, if the question is, how much can you leverage the company, Scott? I really am not able to answer that question. We have a very prudent view about debt. Sometimes debt has been working against the company because people said we are too prudent, but I think most of the time has been working in favor of the company because carrying debt is a liability per se. We believe that we certainly have the ability to make an acquisition with leveraging the company. I think we're going to be always prudent on the leverage. Our shareholder has always said that he is available to support our M&A strategy through the proper tools. Let's wait when an opportunity will materialize, but certainly, I believe we do have the financial ability, we have the ability to finance a decent level of acquisition. The next question is from Alex Gibson with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon. Thanks. I think I have three questions left. My first one is just again on the underlying business and trying to understand when do you expect the quarterly sales to return to the kind of level that you had planned before COVID? You had, I think, earlier Quest saying that they could get there by the end of the year. Do you think that's possible? Then once you're at that point, do you think your business will still be growing at the 5%- 9% that you kind of expected before COVID, or should we expect faster underlying growth coming from Lyme, TB, hepatitis? That's my first question, a couple lumped in there. Second one is just on your first half guide. If you include the approved serology and antigen testing in the U.S. already in your guidance or if that could be upside. Lastly, if you could just comment on what your expectation for pricing is for PCR tests for your first half as well, that would be helpful. PG, can you take the first question about the underlying business, and I will work on the H1 guideline and the pricing. Absolutely. Yes, Alex, I believe I need to repeat what Carlo said. The fact that we didn't give guidance for the full year, it means that we don't have visibility for the full year. I think that it's fair to say that by the end of the year, we should go back to that kind of level that we saw pre-COVID. Again, we didn't give a guidance for the full year, right. In terms of growth rate, I think that the 5%-9% number you quoted is a fair ballpark number. Very difficult to understand the speed of the pickup, but as a ballpark number, I believe that's a good one. If I go to the H1 guideline and the pricing. On the H1 guidance, yes, we do have baked in the fact that we have the TrimericS approved in the U.S. Keep in mind that today we already have an assay for IgG determination full length with the S1/ S2 protein in the U.S. that is approved, and we are selling. TrimericS will be an improvement because also we'll have a full competitive claim, which is needed, a semi-quantitative, which is needed for immune status determination. Yes, they are baked in our numbers. As far as pricing is concerned, I believe that we built a model whereby we expect, starting from the second half, to have a 10% price effect. Which means that if you have a 10% price decline on second half, we annualize it, we believe it's overall a 20% price decline. Again, this one, we pulled it from the sky, as you can imagine, because so far we don't see a price effect and reimbursements in the U.S. are hefty. Still, $50 billion of testing is being added to the Biden proposal. There is lots of money in the U.S. for testing, but again, just for purposes of modeling, and then we will see what is going to happen in H2. It's 10% H2, annualize 10%. Okay. That's great. If I could just follow up on that first half guide, and you mentioned it, like Quidel gave the guidance yesterday that they're trying to say, this is a floor, this is kind of the bottom of where they really expect they're going to come out. Do you think you would agree with that with your guidance? Do you think this is a floor that we should be working at, or is it not as conservative as that? Look, you know that I'm refusing to give flavor because numbers are numbers, assumptions are assumptions, and I don't think it's necessarily professional to say, "I give you a number, but it's not the worst case or the best case." We gave you our best number, best assumption in terms of what we believe the business will do in H1. Again, I think we all need to realize that there are a lot of moving parts, not necessarily in my opinion about the base business, where I'm more comfortable with, but about the development of the COVID business. I think you appreciate the fact that we are all in the same situation. We are trying to forecast for 2021 and H1. Okay. Thank you. The next question is from Peter Welford with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Hi, yes. Thanks so much for taking my questions. There's a few. Firstly, just if we can just go back to COVID-19 in 2020. Thanks for the visibility on the split. I wonder if you can just outline for us in the fourth quarter, how much of the sales of the sort of EUR 101 million related to molecular, and were there any antigen sales at all in the fourth quarter? I know you said the remainder was serology. If you could help us a little bit in the fourth quarter, that would be great. On the molecular platform, I wonder if you could give us any insights there into the placement of instruments you've seen. Are there still new instruments being placed in the fourth quarter? You mentioned that a lot of it was new customers. In the U.S., though, have you seen a lot of existing customers increase their placements at all? It would be great if we could get some sort of clarity on what sort of trend you saw during the period and into the early part of this year. Just finally on costs. I guess if we think about this year, I mean clearly again, there'll be somewhat of a COVID windfall. How should we think about your ability to want to, I guess, incrementally invest in things like R&D this year, versus on the other hand, if you think about basically the cost base and therefore there will be operating leverage if COVID revenues do exceed or underperform expectations. Thank you. Okay. Let me start from the last one. When you say the cost, I assume you're talking about OpEx, right? If you want to understand if we need to increase our OpEx line, the answer is no. We believe that what we have is in line, clearly the development and the OpEx increase that we have historically is every year- on- year is what is needed to fuel our projects, both from an R&D perspective and a marketing perspective. As far as the first question on Q4, look, we said I can give you a ballpark number. We have 80% of the revenues are pretty much COVID molecular, 20% revenue take is COVID non-molecular, combination of antigen and the antibody testing. I said as far as placement is concerned, I said that Q4 was a strong quarter for placement. Roughly 200 DiaSorin MDX and 200 DiaSorin XLs were placed in the quarter. It was a very good quarter for us, which is telling you that the pipeline, which is not only driven by COVID, granted that the molecular pipeline certainly is driven by COVID, but the XL pipeline is not driven by COVID at all. It's a combination of QuantiFERON still. The fact that we, by the way, concluded the Siemens project. Siemens project means that we have now stopped the distribution of ELISA from Siemens. We have converted all the customers, everyone, the last wave of customer that came in. Really you should read it as an XL plate with really not clearly that much COVID related, but more into the base business. If I understood correctly, you want to understand, moving forward, what would be the current business growth? I believe that moving forward, we will return to the base business growth that we had historically fueled by all the new projects we have. Certainly, the fact that some of the drags that we had in the past are not there any longer, so we don't have ELISA that strong as it used to be because we converted and then we killed the ELISA line. I believe that will allow a solid growth of the base business. PG, is there anything you want to add? No, I believe, Carlo, you covered it all. The number you referred to in terms of the split amongst molecular and immunoassays for Q4 is the right ballpark number. That's great. Thank you. The next question is from Maja Pataki with Kepler. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions with regards to 2021, just to understand and put your comments into perspective, Carlo. I think it was in the Q3 call or even on the H1 call when you were talking about serology testing and you said it didn't develop as you anticipated and once you look at EUR 8 million-EUR 10 million revenues per month, just as you were developing. My first question is, with regards to what you've commented on, the strong demand for serology, should we think that this EUR 8 million-EUR 10 million is now higher? The second thing is when we talk about the base business recovering, if we look back to Q4 2019, it was just about the time when we had the latent TB test coming through, and then SARS-CoV-2 came. The whole going back to the base business, is that basically giving a base where we should then start to think what the opportunity for you would be on the latent TB side and Lyme disease that would come on top of the base business? Is this really a recovery to the sales number, including latent TB and Lyme? Lastly, when you talk about the antigen test, and it's true, you have been talking about the antigen test moving or falling off the cliff as the first test. Nevertheless, you have been quite positive about the opportunity also in more developing countries like Brazil, due to the lack of molecular testing. Is that now something that you think will come through, but at a later stage, or is that something that you think, well, actually the situation has changed and it's not going to come through this way? Thank you. Maja, the first thing I think I've been referring to the 10 million, that was volume and not sales. Carlo, I'm sorry if I interject. I believe that what we quoted was EUR 8 million-EUR 10 million per quarter, not per month. Correct. Sorry, per quarter. Yes, sorry. Per quarter. Never mind. Okay. No, per quarter. My bad. Okay. Okay. Sorry for the disconnect, but for the first time, PG and myself, we are not in the same place. Okay. As I said, in Q4, 20% of the revenues were non-molecular. I think you can do the math in terms of what would be the baseline for the non-molecular, which is primarily serology and some antigen, because it just launched. As far as the antigen test look, I believe that the antigen test for core lab is an opportunity for some of the emerging countries. We don't have registration yet. The only registration that we have today is CE mark in EU and in the U.S., and we applied for Canada, we applied for Brazil, we applied for Mexico, for some of the other geographies, but we don't have that yet. I believe that that will become an opportunity of growth. Certainly, the strategic growth should come from the U.S. This is why I was remarking before you saw the Labcorp press release. I think Labcorp is a very strategic customer to DiaSorin. More than a customer, is a company we really can do business with strategically, and we both believe that notwithstanding the point-of-care and OTC opportunity for antigen testing, there is an opportunity also for high quality antigen testing in the lab. We due result because we bank on the fact that Labcorp and some other smaller commercial lab will be able to win tenders, win at the state level, for collecting swabs and then having those tested under quality requirement in core lab. I said we due result, the way to understand how this will develop in the next few months. That to me is the antigen opportunity. Base business recovery, I think, Maja, there are a couple of things you need to note on the base business, which are fairly relevant compared to 2019. The first one, everything was completely forgotten in 2020. Everybody knew that that was going to happen. The first one is the fact that vitamin D was transitioned out from Quest because of the fact that Siemens won the contract. In 2020, we had a good business and again, well, good meaning that great business and then was hit by volume and then eventually quite transition out. Starting from 2021, our base business does not have that component. The other thing is that we have been phasing out ELISA in 2020, which is not going to be there in 2021. Notwithstanding all this, you're asking me how do we see 2021 finishing and therefore even 2022? If you look at last quarter, notwithstanding the lack of vitamin D and notwithstanding, certainly the ELISA, our overall business ex-COVID is fairly flat compared to last year. This should give you a baseline in terms of, once 2021 is all over, how to expect growth of a cleaner business, cleaner meaning that without the drags. The vitamin D loss with Quest plus ELISA starting from 2022 forward. Understood. Thank you. The next question is from Andrea Balloni with Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Yes, thanks a lot for taking my question and good afternoon, everybody. My first question is about QuantiFERON. If you could give us more color about what to expect in 2021, as we are seeing some very positive comments from QIAGEN. How should we model this level of sales that was almost zero in 2019, and I guess it was same in 2020. My second question, I'm sorry for that, I lost the answer about the pricing environment for the molecular test in the U.S. and Europe. If you can repeat it again. My very last question, and sorry for asking again, is a follow-up about H1 2021 guidance. I understand pretty well there are many moving parts, but what I can see is that the largest part of these moving parts are starting to be positive. I mean, if you compare with EUR 380 million reported last year, a 40% increase is around EUR 150 million. If I sum up, the recovery of the tests you developed last year, which were around EUR 60 million. If you sum up molecular tests, that should have a production capacity of 3x compared to the level of last year. There is also serology and new antigen test. Is it correct that the only negative part is the one related to vitamin D and ELISA you have just commented? The only reason why your guidance looks to be quite cautious is related to these two items. Carlo, do you want me to take the question on the guidance? Please, also please remind that when we say that in Q2, we had EUR 47 million of serology peak last year. Serological COVID last year was outstandingly strong in one quarter. Don't forget that. PG, please take Andrea through the guidance. Yeah. I don't want to do the modeling for him, but I will try to give some color. Yes, in H1 last year, we had almost EUR 100 million of COVID sales. It is true that the negative elements that we discussed about are, and those are the ones that Carlo just commented. It's the vitamin D in Quest, and it's the former Siemens ELISA business. For all the rest, Andrea, I'm sorry, I can't do the modeling for you. I believe that we stand behind the 40% increase in H1 we said. Considering the visibility we have in the first part of the year, the ex-COVID business, we said is going to be back to normality, we believe, by the end of the year. That's a much more predictable business in a way, as long as you are not going to have a second measure of lockdowns because of new mutation of the virus, which are going to make the vaccination program less effective. That's basically it. Okay. The other question were about QuantiFERON and pricing for molecular. Carlo, do you want me to take it or you want to take it, the one for QuantiFERON? You can do QuantiFERON and you can just do molecular because there is a repeat of what you said. Okay Already two times during this call. On QuantiFERON, I think you can take the comments that QIAGEN made, because considering what we expect that notwithstanding the fall of volumes that happened in 2020, we believe that QIAGEN stated that in 2021, volume should go back to what they were in 2019. To that part, we need to add the growth coming from conversion at higher price, plus the fact that send out, which we are planning to capture in the U.S. Watch out because when you said that in 2020, QuantiFERON was zero, that's not a really an appropriate statement because in 2019, we had launched the CE marked product in Europe. We had, granted, had lower volumes because of COVID. We had all the European business that was actually developed and with over 250 accounts using our products in Europe. It was not zero at all. PG, do you want to do molecular? I believe what we said regarding molecular pricing is that so far we're not seeing any pressure or any material pressure at all. We didn't give any guidance for H2, but what we believe it might happen, but as Carlo very clearly said, it's just broad-based assumption, is that we are expecting sooner or later some price pressure there. What we said is, you can say if you need a ballpark number, 10% in the second part of the year, which could be annualized full year at 20%. Again, so far, no price pressure. It's a broad assumption that we made thinking about half two, but nothing is being seen so far. Okay. Thanks a lot for repeating about the pricing. This concludes our Q&A session for today. Mr. Rosa, the floor is back to you for any closing remarks. Thank you, operator. Thanks everybody for staying so long with us. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.
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