Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Saras third quarter 2021 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are on listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star then zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ilaria Candotti, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam. Hello. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining us today for this conference call on Saras nine months and third quarter 2021 results. As usual, our analyst presentation is available on our website and on the home page under the investor relations section. Our agenda today will be the usual, Mr. Dario Scaffardi, CEO and General Manager of Saras Group will start with the highlights of the period, followed by a review of the results of each business segment. Then Mr. Franco Balsamo, CFO, Saras Group, will be available for a review of our financial items. Then we go back to Dario and present the outlook, and finally we'll be delighted to take your questions. At this time, we'd like to hand over to Dario. [Non-English content] Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today. In this quarter, Saras' comparable EBITDA has amounted to EUR 2.3 million, compared to a negative 61.5 of the third quarter of 2020. Compared to the reported EBITDA, the comparable EBITDA does not include the positive effects of the scenario on the price, the change in prices and the value of inventory, but it includes the impact of the exchange rate derivatives. The difference in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2020 is mainly attributable to the improved results in the industrial and marketing segment. The group's reported EBITDA in the third quarter of 2021 was EUR 4.8 million, down from 36.3 in the third quarter of 2020. The change was due, on the one hand, to the different impact of the commodity price dynamics on oil inventories. In the third quarter of 2021, the change in inventory, net of the related hedging activities on this, benefited from an appreciation of EUR 4.7 million, compared with an appreciation of EUR 107 million in the same period of last year, where there were dramatic changes in the market. Furthermore, in the third quarter, we had a very significant impact from the surprising increase in the power price and in the CO2 prices, in which the impact on variable costs are only offset partially from the refunds that we receive. We will go into more detail later on in this. If we move to the next slide, you can see how the price of Brent has reached higher levels than those of the pre-COVID period. We've been firmly in the range above $80 in the last couple of months, with a sharp increase during the summer period. This is due mainly to the strong demand and strong and surprising OPEC+ discipline that have been able to have the market slowly reduce inventories. Today, inventories are below the average level of the five-year period. If we look at the crude price differentials, these present a favorable picture. Sour crudes have remained over the last year firmly in the range of the benchmark between $1.5-$2.5, let's say, with an average of $2 discount, which, excluding the COVID period, which was totally abnormal, is better than the previous period, in which in 2018, 2020, there was a lot of moments in which this benchmark was at a premium to Brent. A similar situation for the OSP of marker grade like Basra from Iraq, which has slowly come back to what we can say are more or less historical level. Different picture for the sweet grades. Sweet grades had a moment of weakness during the summer, in which we had Azeri at a modest premium, one of the lowest levels that we have ever seen. Since August, premiums have crept up on the back of strong demand. We are back to the mark of about roughly $2, which we can consider as sort of a historical number for Azeri Light. By the way, another element which is important on Azeri is that the quality of this crude has changed. This crude is a benchmark crude in the Mediterranean, and it has become lighter. This is one of the reasons why maybe its premium also has increased. It's more desirable by certain types of refineries. At the same time, if we look at the distillate prices, they are moving. They have been moving strongly upwards in the last quarter. While we had a slow start in the beginning of the year, things have picked up at the end of spring and the beginning of summer with a very substantial increase over the summer. Today, on the diesel crack, we are almost back to pre-COVID levels, while gasoline stocks saw a very strong bounce during the summer period on the back of demand, and in the last month, it has backed down as is normal due to the seasonality of gasoline. What we have seen is that storage on both diesel and gasoline has diminished significantly and it's below historical levels. There was a strong impact also from the outages in the U.S. Gulf Coast due to the hurricane season, which has been pretty strong. We have seen strong demand, strong physical demand for diesel. The drawback on this is that jet fuel is still under pressure, although there's been a marked improvement in jet consumption worldwide and particularly in Europe and in the U.S. It is still 40%-50% below pre-COVID level, but it is recovering also thanks to resumption of transatlantic travel. We are expecting, as we'll show in the outlook, a much more bullish picture for middle distillates. Furthermore, Chinese exports have slowed down. There seems that the Chinese authorities have put a cap to the amount of runs that the teapot refineries can perform. This also is something which is constructive for the market. All this has created a stronger refinery margin. We can see this in the ratios, which have been moving upwards, although partially dampened by the very strong absolute price of crude. As we will see, you know, the negative impact of power prices. If we look at the traditional distillate crack and gasoline crack graph, which puts it in perspective over the five-year average, we can see that gasoline cracks are at the highest part of the five-year range, which is extremely constructive. Diesel, which has been for the last 18 months firmly below the five-year average, is now square in the middle and still improving. The wild card is certainly the price of power. The cost of electricity in Italy in the third quarter has been on average EUR 125 per megawatt, compared to EUR 42 in the same period of 2020. A threefold increase in the absolute price of power. In the period, there was a record price of EUR 158. Strongly up three, almost three times above, not only what happened in 2020, but to the average of the 10-year period between 2010 and 2019, excluding the COVID period, where the price has been always roughly around the EUR 50 mark. Right now, this value has exceeded almost EUR 200 in October, and at the moment it stands at around EUR 170. Similarly, the policies of restricting the amount of quotas of European Trading Scheme has had the effect of rising the CO2 cost, which has shot up to about $60 per ton of CO2, compared to a price in last year of about $20, which was already significantly higher than the historical multi-year average of a number between $5 and $10. This has altered the results of Saras. Here we have our traditional graph, which is based on the EMC benchmark. The EMC benchmark does not include extraordinary energy cost. It has a cost which is just based on a fixed percentage of the value of the barrel, so it does not reflect the higher power cost. It does not reflect, incorporate in any way the CO2 cost. Its power cost is related to low sulfur fuel oil, as was the old tradition in the past. The sharp rise in power and CO2 has altered the dynamic here. If we compare it to the month of June, the price of power was EUR 80 compared to EUR 125 in Q3. The result is that it has lowered the premium that Saras adds to the EMC benchmark by roughly $0.50 a barrel. While we gave a guidance in our last call on August second of around a premium of $4.7-$5.2 over the EMC benchmark. We have to lower this guidance by about half a dollar to $4.1-$4.2 per barrel. Going into the various segments, the representation is just slightly more complex because now we are incorporating all the industrial and marketing results in one segment, and representing what we receive as compensation for power production. It's not always immediate and easy, and we have made a specific table, which Franco will explain. Basically, we have a refining scenario which has been positive and has delivered about EUR 60 million of extra refining margin, thanks mainly to the middle distillate complex. At the same time, power sales, due to the high power price, were higher by about EUR 15 million. We had some negatives. One has been a negative industrial performance of about roughly EUR 30 million, which is mainly attributable to the fact that in July we had a very severe generalized blackout in the island of Sardinia, which shut off power for a significant amount of time. This had a knock-on negative effect on a unit. A refinery, whenever you have a blackout, has a sudden emergency shutdown of all the units, and this tends to create problems. It has caused, indirectly, the breakdown of several units that needed to be repaired during the month of July and now August. You know the reason why there's been a negative refinery performance in this period. Power production is similar to the one on the same quarter of last year, just below 1 million gigawatts. Last year was slightly above 1 million gigawatts, and this year slightly below 1 million. On this, we have higher variable cost of almost EUR 80 million. This is due to a higher CO2 and higher power prices. Of these EUR 80 million, about EUR 54 million are covered by what we call the essentiality regime, the reimbursement that we get from authorities for providing 470 MW of power on a constant basis to the local grid in the island of Sardinia. There were about EUR 5 million lower fixed costs. A much more constructive marketing market. We have had almost EUR 10 million of extra EBITDA in this quarter compared to the same quarter of last year, thanks to higher sales, both in Italy and Spain, but mainly higher marketing margins due to a very high demand for products. If we look at part of the changes that we have, before going into more detail with Franco on the cost basis, from the crude oil slate and the product production, you can see the changes that we've had in our slate to take into account the very different scenario. First of all, we have lightened the barrel. Last year, we were running about 38% of light crudes, and this year it's almost 50%. This is because we have privileged gasoline yields and petrochemical yields. We are not a large producer of petrochemicals, but still we have an important petrochemical complex in our northern site, and we have increased the yield from about 2%-3% to almost 6% of petrochemicals, mainly in the aromatics. You can see that they are mixed together with the gasoline yields. Also, the gasoline yield has increased, of course, to take into account in the first nine months, the very strong gasoline crack. Conversely, we have lowered the runs of the sour crudes that last year were about 60% and this year were roughly 45%. At the end, you can see that the average API gravity of our slate has increased by almost a full API degree, which is quite significant. At the same time, we have tried to increase the yield of very low sulfur fuel oil, which is the new marine fuel, which has given some very positive results. We have plateaued and reached more or less the maximum amount that we are able to market locally, and we started to target also markets outside of our immediate region, where we have basically doubled production compared to last year. Now we made a more detailed table that I will leave Franco to comment. Okay. Thank you, Dario. As you know, the essentiality contract provides for a certain level of electricity, the coverage of variable costs that are correlated to the defined production levels and a fixed cost. This is net, I repeat, net of revenues generated from the sales of electricity. I mean, in case the selling price of electricity is higher than this recognized cost, this differential is returned, while otherwise is a sort of integration of the cost suffered. The company within the essentiality contract is guaranteed the return on the invested capital and the depreciation that represent almost a fixed amount. This is the framework of the contract. Due to the accounting principle, of course, the total amount of coverage cost received by the contract are classified in the income statement, among the revenues, because at the end it is revenues. All costs suffered and associated to the production electricity are of course classified as costs within variable costs and fixed costs. In order to have a proper understanding of the economics of this contract, we are disclosing the main component of the different costs. We hope that this will be a benefit for overall better comprehension. Looking on the chart at page 15, in the third quarter, the variable cost increased by EUR 75 million, but EUR 45 million of which EUR 75 million are within the recovery of the essentiality contract. Net-net, the increase of variable cost is EUR 28 million. This is mainly due to the increase of cost related to the CO2, and to the increased cost of electricity, as Dario explained before. On the fixed cost, the EUR 91 million are net of EUR 16 million. That is part of the fixed costs covered by the essentiality contract. On the other side, the remuneration of capital invested and depreciation, that I said before is almost a fixed amount for the first quarter, is an amount of about EUR 15 million. Same situation of course for the nine months, whereby the increase in variable cost for EUR 131 million need to be netted by eighty-seven million euro covered by the essentiality regime. Net-net, the increase of cost in nine months is about EUR 50 million, you could say 50% between increase in electricity and in CO2. Finally, as the fixed cost is regarded, the increase of EUR 36 million in cost need to take into consideration EUR 29 million of coverage within the essential regime. The benefit in the fixed cost, of course is, it need to be calculated. The global effect and of the amount that represent the depreciation, the remuneration of capital and depreciation in nine months is about EUR 60 million. Of course, Ilaria and myself, we are available for further request of explanations. Franco, thank you. If we look at the side of renewables, this of course is a bright spot, luckily. We have had higher production in the quarter of about 56%, which is due partially to the new wind farm that we have acquired in the southern part of Sardinia, to the reblading activity carried out and completed in our existing wind farm, and from meteorological conditions, which have been better than those of last year, although below the average historical averages. Still relatively low wind conditions, although better than the past ones. The main component is of course the power tariff, which has risen from EUR 0.04 per kilowatt to more than EUR 0.10. If we look at instead the investments on the nine-year period, those have been slightly above EUR 30 million. They are the results of the finalization of the new wind farm in Macchiareddu, in the south of Sardinia, and the completion of all the activities to renew our existing wind towers. Right now we have an installed capacity of 171 MW. The outlook, if we look at things from a global level, from the oil point of view, we are in a situation in which global oil demand is slightly below the 2016, 2020 range. The International Energy Agency is forecasting that global oil demand by the end of the year should get back to pre-COVID levels, recovering all the losses over these last two years. The main product which is still missing from the recovery is, of course, jet fuel, demand of which has improved but is still significantly below pre-COVID levels. We are in a situation in which we need to recover roughly 2.5 million barrels of jet, half of which is projected to be recovered by the end of the year. This is going to create some pressure on the diesel pool. Therefore, we believe that combined with the various effects of increased demand for oil and reduced refinery capacity due to certain shutdowns, outages and a variety of other reasons gives a very positive outlook for oil demand. On the other side, of course we are worried about developments on the power market, which is a cost for us. Although partially compensated by our activities in the renewable space, still we are a larger buyer of power than what we are a producer of power from renewables. What we produce within the essentiality regime, as Franco was explaining, is basically a hedge production in which we have a fixed remuneration of our production. In a history of more than 40 years, of course, it has never happened that our cost of production was lower than the power market. It's possible that things might have changed, the paradigm might have changed or not. I think it's a little bit too early to make assumptions, but certainly it's something that needs to be monitored closely. We have a refining scenario which is extremely constructive, and it's playing into what we have always tried to guide the market expand. We're expecting a recovery in the second half of 2021, and this is happening net of CO2 and power. Our cost saving program is firmly on track and accruing the expected results. We are confirming investments in the range of EUR 85 billion for 2021 in order to be able to maintain our plant fully competitive. We have changed, as mentioned before, the guidance on the EMC benchmark. In terms of new activities, there is a strong driver right now to implement technologies that can improve energy efficiency and cost saving through also to the environment and the constraint that we have from the market. We are launching a refinery-centered program called ESTI. ESTI in Sardinian language means we are. It is a program that wants to enhance efficiency and the reliability of the plant and create the conditions for the refinery of the forthcoming years in order to ensure it's competitive going forward. We have finalized the acquisition of industrial land between our north and south sites. Our refinery is divided into two parts and it is separated. We have two entrances and separate facilities. With this acquisition, we will be able to unify the north plant and the south plant and with significant cost improvements on certain common facilities between the two sites that will be unified. We are looking also very closely at the petrochemical opportunities. This year has seen a strong rebound of the petrochemical market, which is strong now and has some very positive outlooks. We have a possibility of making investments in order to increase our share, particularly in the aromatics market, and this is something that we are looking with new eyes. Most importantly in this period, we are also finalizing the new company with Enel Green Power in order to build the largest electrolyzer to produce green hydrogen in operation in Italy. This plant would be a 20 MW plant which will provide hydrogen to our system. But also we are in a position to use the oxygen as well. This is something which is dependent also on the funding from the recovery funds and the green fund from Europe and from the central government. We're supposed to receive a definite approval of the investment during the summer, but it keeps on being delayed and postponed. We're looking forward to the end of the year or the very beginning of next year, but we're confident we will be able to move on. At the same time, we have signed an agreement with Air Liquide for a new technology on CCS, which is also a technology that we need to monitor and follow closely. Compared to other things that we have studied in the past, which were more traditionally based, this technology is cryogenic. That means that liquefying basically the CO2, and it would make it much easier to transport it and to move it around. Opening up new avenues in something which is a very dynamic market. On the renewable side, I already mentioned what has been done. We are in the very final stage of the authorization process for further 80 MW of solar photovoltaic and 20 MW of wind in our existing farm. Both these projects hopefully will be approved by the end of the year, the very early phases at the beginning of next year, and we'll be able to start building. The investment plan, so for 500 MW by 2024, is on track. In terms of guidance on the net financial position, we expect to match the same level as that of last year, so roughly EUR 470 million or EUR 500 million. Thank you. Thank you very much. I wonder maybe before we go into the financials, we can just take more of the questions. If you want to move to the Q&A, we are open to receive your questions. Excuse me, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the guidance on the premium. I believe it implies a further step down in Q4. I was wondering if you can give us perhaps the assumptions behind that in terms of what electricity and CO2 prices, especially electricity, I guess, you are assuming in the next couple of quarters. Also, remaining on the electricity side, I'm sure, clearly we've seen this big spike. There are remedial actions that you can take to offset the impact on the P&L. Probably the first one that comes to mind is to better use or increase the use of the power generation that you have. My understanding is that most of the power generation that you're producing goes to the grid. I was wondering whether you can increase that to supply electricity to the refinery rather than buying off the grid, because I believe that you are selling basically at a fixed price, whereas you're buying at spot price, which at the moment is not working out for you. I was wondering if you can give us maybe some more color there. Going to the electricity price, and maybe then Franco can help you a little bit more on the guidance. The power plant that we have is follows the rules of the unbundling system of Italy and of Europe. We have to sell our power to the grid and buy back from the market or whatever power. It's only the enclosed electric producers that are able to use their own power. It's not an option for us to use our power internally. Otherwise, we would have done so, obviously. Here there's also a very exceptional situation in which there is a history of more than 20 years in which the economic driver was exactly the opposite. You know, I think that your question is absolutely legitimate. What happens is that with the essentiality regime, and we will maybe give a little bit more color on it, if we produce more power, we have to sell this on the spot market for which we are not clearly equipped. Any extra revenues that we would accrue would undermine what we received in terms of essential reimbursements. It's a rather complex calculation. We have to look at a variety of factors. We have to look at, first of all, the oil margin. Producing more power means buying more sour crude and basically running it at a marginal margin, the refinery. This has to be coupled with what we actually get on the market. If the situation remains in this way, it may be convenient to do so, and we are actually following. It has not been the case in Q3. If the price of power remains at this level, things could be altered a little bit. It's not something easy to face because a refinery is not a flexible unit that can be turned on and off continuously. It has to basically follow a base load regime. Once we set to make a certain amount of power, this cannot be changed on a daily basis. This is not the equivalent of a gas-fired unit, which is able to ramp up in terms of minutes. I mean, we take, we believe a short time, but we take days to ramp up, not seconds. Maybe on the guidance, Franco, you would- The guidance, Alessandro, of course, in the guidance, we take into considerations oil prices and electricity prices. In terms of oil, the current level of crack spread with Brent at $83 a barrel. As far as the electricity is concerned, the guidance is calculated taking account our consumptions on the electricity with a PUN price at EUR 200 per megawatt hour. In the previous guidance, the price was very close to EUR 70. On the CO2, the model takes in considerations EUR 62 for Q4. Thank you. I think you also provided a very useful table in the presentation with variable cost. Can you just clarify how much was the impact in Q3 of the higher electricity and CO2 prices versus a year ago? Of course, the classifications that we gave you is a sort of proxy because the system is complex. As far as the third quarter is concerned, the EUR 28 million of increased variable cost are of course compared to the previous period, let me say is half and half more or less is more than EUR 10 million in electricity and EUR 17 million in the CO2. Okay. Thank you. If I can- It's not, of course. If I can squeeze in the last one. When we look at EMC, there's a lot of inputs that are probably not quite right in the sense that, for example, there's High Sulfur Fuel Oil. There's Urals that you're not quite using at the moment. Would it be the right time to look at EMC and change and create a new benchmark that is more relevant to the refinery? Yes, I think it's a valid point. We, the EMC benchmark was already changed about two years ago, taking into account low sulfur fuel oil. I think that the EMC benchmark has at least a component, if I remember correctly, of low sulfur fuel oil. It's not easy to find a benchmark. It's something that we have been debating. By the way, you know, the EMC benchmark was introduced by Saras in 2006, and nobody has come up with anything better up to now. Finding an appropriate benchmark is not easy, to be honest. But it's something that certainly would be necessary, and I think we would appreciate the inputs of the market. Maybe something that could be a Saras-specific benchmark, maybe. Other companies are doing something like that, of course. All right. Thank you very much. The next question is from Joshua Stone of Barclays. Please go ahead. Hi. Thank you. Good afternoon. Two questions, please. First, Dario, if you could just elaborate on the petrochemical market opportunities you talked about. Are these organic investments, I assume? And what sort of which aromatics are you targeting and what's the likely CapEx you're talking about? If you just maybe just flesh that out a little bit. Then secondly, it's going back a few months now, but I noticed you purchased the world's first carbon neutral barrel from Lundin earlier in the year. Are you able to say whether you paid a premium for that crude? And how would you expect that market of the carbon neutral barrels to develop? And to what extent would you be willing to pay a premium for carbon neutral barrels? Thank you. Let me start a little bit with the petrochemicals. Our petrochemical plant is a plant which we call BTX, which means benzene, toluene, and xylenes. It's part of the aromatic complex. All those, without wanting to be too specific on chemistry, is complex molecules that derive from the basis, which is benzene, which is an organic molecule, which has a circular shape. Then according to how you fit on the various other molecules, atoms, you have very different properties, which are benzene, basically, which is used in oil-based chemical production, specifically for making plastic. We have a very specific product, which is called, we call it in Italian cumene. With limited production, it's a heavy aromatic which is used to make very, let me say, sophisticated plastics, particularly in the dashboards of high range automobiles. Orthoxylene, which is used to make, again, plastics and plastic bottles and resins and so forth. Xylenes, which has basically the same use. We would want to make investments in order to modernize the existing plants in order to increase production and efficiency. The existing plants are rather old. They were made more than a generation ago. There is an investment here that could be theoretically in the range of EUR 25 million yearly, maybe for this aromatic complex. We could further improve also the production of propylene. Propylene, which is petrochemical-grade propylene, not refinery-grade propylene. That is, that would be a smaller investment than we could try to boost production. Moving from production of propane or refinery-grade propylene to more petrochemical-grade propylene, which is much more valuable on the market. We are talking relatively small quantities here. All in all, we could probably increase by, let's say something like 200,000-300,000 tons a year of this family of petrochemicals, basically at the expense of the master gasoline complex. We could also increase paraffin production, but that is heavily dependent on the availabilities of certain type of paraffinic crudes, which is outside our hands. This is not a definite decision yet. You know, it's something that we are looking at the moment in order to see if you know, the market remains firmly in this area. It would look to be extremely constructive for the time being. In terms of carbon-neutral crude, there hasn't been much follow-up from that cargo. It was the first that came on the market, and I think we're the first to buy it. There is no specific advantage at the moment for the buyer. The question, are we ready to pay a premium? Well, no, because this premium could not be offset in any way. I mean, it does not reduce our carbon footprint in any manner for the time being. It's something that goes to who is producing the crude. We should offer a discount, you know, if the world was a fair place. I think all this is something which is an evolving market in a way, and which we follow closely as we follow all the new trends. At the moment, I don't see any development on this side. Okay. Thank you. The next question is from Henri Patricot of UBS. Please go ahead. Yes, hello, everyone. Thank you for the presentation. Two questions, please. The first one, just around going back to the cost. Was wondering whether you're reconsidering or if you've hedged any of these costs for the next few quarters, or if we just look at the spot CO2 electricity prices and use that to come up to the cost in the next quarters. And then secondly, can you expand on the new program, the ESTI program, and what you expect the operational and financial impact to be? Thank you. Well, on our new program, it is exactly that. New program in which it is a very local program in which the refinery has to prepare and design itself for the forthcoming years. Clearly we need to increment digitalization, so a stronger optimization of processes. Very close follow-up of process technology. So we will employ more highly trained engineers in order to follow closely all the opportunities, even the micro opportunities in process control, where it would require a high level of sophistication. Optimization thanks also to the possibility of unifying the sites in order to reduce fixed costs based on services that were rendered on both areas. A rethink and a re-internalization of a certain number of activities that today are given outside. Strongly focusing internally on all the activities that can be brought back in-house. Also thinking of the workforce, how this can be optimized looking forward, how it can change, considering also the change in demography, the change in the skills that are available on the market. The objective of this program is to define what the refinery could look like, what the new refinery could look like in the next years, and also in order to face the next decade. Sorry, on the cost, Franco, maybe. No, it is not the hedging of CO2 prices an activity that is not in place in the sense that we buy our CO2 need every day on average basis. The stronger volatility in the last months were not predicted. For the next year could be an opportunity, could be an area where we think about it. Okay. Thank you. Just something for the ESTI. The next question is from Massimo Bonisoli of Equita. Please go ahead. Thank you for the presentation. Good afternoon. I hope you can hear me well. The first question on renewable, if you can provide an outlook for EBITDA for this division in Q4 at mark to market prices of PUN. If I'm not mistaken, there should be quite a sizable step up sequentially and any indication of sensitivity to PUN prices would help. The second question on CO2 exposure, if you can provide any indication for 2022, if there is any sizable difference versus 2021 in your expectation. The third for Franco on net financial position, if you can have just a very short bridge for Q4, considering that the oil prices has increased versus the average of Q3, the excise duties and value added taxes should continue to increase. Just to understand the underlying assumption on your outlook. Okay. As in terms of net financial positions, as Dario said, we foresee a level that will be about EUR 500 million due to the current level of commodities. The fourth quarter will be positive after many quarters in terms of generation of cash. That is positive, but it partially will be offset by the other cost. Now we have absolute level of inventories that is slightly higher than the budget that could be different. Let's say that the level of indebtedness at the end will be stable between EUR 470 million and EUR 400 million, as Dario said before. In terms of CO2 exposure, let me say that is in line with this year, taking into consideration the decreasing levels. I would say that more or less we are short about less than 1 million ton. In terms of renewables, the last quarter will be extremely positive because, let me say, all plant related is fully in force. The new acquisition wind farm is in full operations. We forecast an EBITDA about EUR 15 million. Yes, also in the last quarter, the weather conditions should be better for the wind. It's windier. Historically at least, the last quarter has always been windier than others. That compounded with a much higher absolute price should give some very good results for the renewable division. Many thanks. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Ms. Candotti, gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Okay. If there are no more questions, I remind you that we are available as usual to answer to any further question you might have. I wish you a good afternoon, good evening, everybody. [Non-English content] Thank you. Goodbye. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect.
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