Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome. Thank you for joining the Saras Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Ilaria Candotti, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam. Yes. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today for this conference call on Saras Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2022 Results. I would like to draw your attention first to the analyst presentation that is already available on our website, on the home page and the Investor Relations section. Our agenda today will cover the results and the outlook for 2023. We have just changed a little our speakers for our call today. I'm pleased to introduce Franco Balsamo, CFO and just appointed as General Manager, who will start with the analysis of the period, including both the relatives, the main trends of the scenario, followed by review of our segment results. Finally, Franco will also provide an overview of the outlook and the guidance for 2023. We have here with us today also Mr. Marco Schiavetti, Saras Chief Commercial Officer, who will be glad to receive your questions on the market outlook. At this time, I would like to hand over to Franco. Okay. Thank you very much, Ilaria. Good afternoon, everybody, for joining us today. First of all, I want to personally thank Matteo Codazzi for this short but very intense period during which he has worked together with the entire team of colleagues with the scope of sizing the market opportunities that we see both in the traditional energy sources and the global energy transitions. From my part, I'm very pleased to accept this new appointment as a General Manager. I will continue to serve Saras with the same serenity and commitment with which I have served for many years as a CFO, in particular in light with the positive results achieved the last year and the favorable outlook for 2023. Looking the chart at page three, there are the full year highlight. The EBITDA comparable is at EUR 1,137,000,000 with a cash flow generation of more than EUR 700 million. The net result comparable at EUR 710 million with the effect of the windfall tax. The dividend per share is EUR 0.19. That is in line with our dividend policy at 40% of the net result comparable, deducted the extraordinary costs represented by the windfall tax. The outlook for 2023 is positive. Our plan of expansion in the renewable is going ahead. We are completing the solar plant in Sardinia of 80 MW, we are expecting good news in term of new project that are in advanced authorization phase. Going to the business. From a purely business standpoint, this has been extremely volatile, a changing year. Definitely a year of structural change for the energy sector as a whole. Diesel and gasoline trucks have skyrocketed compared to the historical average. This very positive aspect from the oil point of view, has been partially offset by a large surge in power cost also in the CO2 cost. We have posted a profit record in cash flow generations, which give us the opportunity to return cash to our shareholders after five years. In the last year, the last year also has been extremely important in terms of what the power sector means for us. Last year was the first full year where our power plant operations has fully adjusted to run under the so-called regime essenzialità, regulated by Italian authority. As you well know, it means that the power that we produce is considered essential for the safe operation of the power grid in Sardinia. This regime, which basically is a system, will fully cover all costs related to power productions and give us a fixed remuneration on the asset at the end of December, has been renewed by ARERA for full year, for the full 2023. What also happened in this extraordinary year is that the production of power through our IGCC plant has been more than competitive than producing it through gas or other means. As we see later, this has altered a little the normal dynamics because the situation never been anticipated. I believe that the regulation is set. This prove how it is important today to have diversified or to have a diversity of supply, and this confirm our industrial structure based on molecules and electrons. During 2022, we have obtained the final authorization and we are ready to build 80 MW of solar power in Sardinia. We are completing the procurement therefore, and construction will start shortly, and we plan to come into service very soon at the beginning of the new of the next of the next year. The finally, the Board of Directors has proposed to remunerate shareholders with a EUR 0.19 dividend per share corresponding to more or less 40% of our adjusted comparable net profit, take into consideration the application of this windfall tax. At the current price, this would translate roughly to a 14% dividend yields shareholder return for 2022. That is definitely one of the highest shareholder return. We thought this was providing the right balance between our previous commitment to remuneration holders and our desire to develop a long-term, solid, visible, and sustainable shareholders return. We are operating, as you well know, in a very volatile environment. The geopolitical outlook remain uncertain. The energy transition implies high relative high regulation risk. We in any case want to be cautious. Nevertheless, we are comfortable proposing the solid remunerations, first of all, because the 2023 refining margin outlook remain solid. Because our power plant is still admitted to the Essentiality Regime. Going through the financial highlight. If you look the group, financial highlight, we reported the EBITDA in 2022, amounted to EUR 1,170,000,000, EUR 900 million higher than the same period of the previous year. The positive change is attributable to a completely changed scenario and other factor, at the comparable level that is represented by the delta in stock. In many cases, not significant compared to other, to other period. As to the EBITDA comparable at EUR 1,136,000,000. I said before that the reported EBITDA does not include the positive effect of the scenario on changes in inventories between the two periods, while includes the impact of currency derivatives, and is not considering the non-recurring items that if you wish, we can explain in more details later. The reported for 2022 reflect in any case the effect of the third support decree that means a reduction in our cost of EUR 120 million. That is a benefit for the company. On the other side, the application of the price cap on sale from renewables, that is putting down the profitability of the entire segment. The group reporting net income was more than EUR 100 million compared to the EUR 9 million achieved last year. In addition, to the positive impact of the scenario already seen at the EBITDA level, this is mainly referred to the higher financial expenses and to higher current tax as a result of the increase in taxable income for the year. In addition, with the negative impact of the windfall tax, which accounted for EUR 266 million. Of which, as we have disclosed, in the last quarter, EUR 96 million already paid in November, accordingly to the Italian Draghi decree, while the remaining part will have to be paid by June in this year. The group comparable net income was EUR 710 million compared to EUR 136 million as a result of the same factor described as before, netted by the adjustment and the impact of the non-recurring items as the withholding tax. Going very quickly to the main market drivers and the Brent updated in 2022 has been a year of extraordinary volatility, as you well know, traded as high as $140 a bbl, as low as 76. This happened at the end of the year. Brent quotation were initially supported by the post-pandemic recovery and then by the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In second and third quarter, Brent prices rebalanced due to the deterioration of economic outlook, increase include oil supply and lower demand in China. The last quarter, Brent lost almost $12 compared to the previous quarter due to the recession fears and another phasing of zero-COVID policy in China. On the supply side, shortage fears hit in Q4. At the same time, see new refiners successful build precautionary stockpiles of crude ahead of the deadline for the embargo against Russian crude. Year-to-end Brent hovered about $80-$85 a bbl, supported by the optimistic expectation, the reopening of China and also improvement in the European economies. Moving to the analysis of crude differentials, both sour and light grades have been impacted by the ban on Russian crudes and the change in oil flows on a global on a global scale. Sour grades, mainly Basra Medium, reported widening discounts during the year because Asian buyers started to buy primarily Urals and other heavily discounted Russian crudes after the outbreak of the war. The consequence, Middle Eastern producers were forced to increase discounts to their sour grades. Just to give you an example, as described in the chart, Basra Medium OSP averaged -$7 in 2022 compared $0.033 in the previous year and -$9 in the last part of the year. On the other hand, because the market is balanced, the premium from sweet grades, mainly Azeri, increased in a context, high demands for middle distillate, high processing cost given to the global requirement for energy and hydrogen for the fluctuations and lower emission of CO2. The average premium for Azeri was a positive EUR 5 and EUR 4.5 in the last quarter of the year, compared to the premium of less than EUR 2 in 2021. In term of outlook for this year, the market indicators is expected to remain more or less similar, both for sweet and sour grades. This is in line with what we have observed in the very, in the course of this, of this month. The crude oil tankers freight increased, of course, always as a result of the war. Distances increased because you want to find new suppliers, mainly U.S. Saras uses this source of new crude. West Africa, Middle East and Russia found new buyers, mainly in India and China, as well described and as well known by all of you. Insurance company asked for higher risk premiums and, moreover, available vessels decreased due to the sanctions against Russian and Russians participated fleet. Cracks have been extraordinary year that recorded an average of $38 a barrel, not comparable with last year. That was $7. Due to the reason that we have described before, I can repeat, it was the heavy dependence of Europe from import of Russian gas oil. In this regard, you know that the main and major European companies, including Saras, spontaneously decided to stop purchases of the Russian product, and this shortly after the beginning of the war. This supply shock came at a time of post COVID demand recovery, that it was even more critical because of the low spare refining capacity in Europe and in U.S. In the last quarter, diesel crack was positive for $45. Gasoline crack in 2022 averaged $17 a barrel. Much higher than last year, but with a different multiple compared to the diesel crack. The reason of this movement is aligned with the previous explanation. Going to the outlook and the, in any case, we see now in the first quarter, standing higher margin that historical range that is, in any case, is a positive for our, for our business. Going to the energy cost, the natural gas spot price went EUR 200 per MWh in March, and which is a peak also during the month of August. Ultimately in December, EU Council set a cap of natural gas prices and probably relation to the lower demand of product. It helped to normalize the gas market. Having said that, Italian electricity prices de facto is linked to the natural gas, recording an average of EUR 303 for MWh in 2022. In our need of electricity in our plant is less than 1 TWh is 0.9 TWh per year. Margins, as shown in this chart at page 10. Regards to the profitability analysis of industrial and marketing segment, as you know, we use the EMC reference margin. That is reference margin averages roughly $10 for a barrel in 2022, compared to the negative EMC in the previous year. The difference is about $12. Saras margin averaged $16 a barrel, highlighting a premium of $6.8 per bbl compared to the $6.5 per bbl in 2021. The higher premium achieved this year is mainly due to the better trading result, achieved what with the stronger refinery products in our sales channels and through third party trading. In this regard, Marco can well describe the evolution of this business. Considering the high level of margin offered by the market, operational management was oriented towards maximizing the runs, sometimes also giving up second level optimization with an impact on the premium level achieved, because our scope was to collect the margin more than the marginal optimization of the last barrel. The Saras margin was $17, showing a premium of $4.2 in Q4. This premium was lower than the previous quarter due to the some weaker operations performance of the refining activities, the negative impact of the higher premium light sweet grades and the higher freight cost. This is pretty why our Q4 results are slightly below our implied. As I said before, our main scope was to collect the absolute market level. Going to the segment review, going to the various segments, starting with industrial market, that represent our main most important business, the comparable EBITDA stood at almost EUR 1.1 billion, and this is mainly due to the higher truck margins both on diesel and gasoline, and the appreciation of the dollar. Having said that, sales performance is improved. We also were able to achieve a strong performance in trading, also from an industrial point of view, enabling maintenance plan, we were able to achieve a higher production rate in line with what I said before, means scope to collect quantity and market. Last year saw a significant increase in variable cost due to the higher energy cost and CO2 higher cost. In any case, we suffer from an inflationary effect, mainly in the cost of chemical, catalyst and other industrial costs. Fixed costs increase in line with the expectation on higher maintenance and higher personal costs that in any case, in 2022 were reduced thanks to COVID to the COVID measure. In terms of CapEx, we stood at less than EUR 90 million and are mainly related to investment in HSE, reliability and logistic development, and part also for the investment in the cyber security activities. In the last quarter, the EBITDA comparable was very strong, more than EUR 300 million, partially affected by some unplanned maintenance, but benefited from a solid refining scenario. On the last segment on the renewables, the comparable EBITDA stood at EUR 38 million, EUR 4 million higher than the previous year. This increase was driven by the increase in the power tariff that was higher, despite the two price caps applied in 2022. We had the Regulation One CapEx, EUR 61 MW that was applied according to the Draghi decree since the beginning of February, and involved roughly the 50% of our yearly production. The second cap was set to EUR 180 for MWh that was applied later and take in consideration the 5% of our of our production. In any case, 2022 production was slightly higher compared to 2021, despite lower wind speeds and some grid limitations, thanks to the production of the new wind farm that we acquired in June 2021. CapEx were almost EUR 20 million and are entirely related to the development and the construction of the Helianto solar plant. Moving to the outlook for the year, we are operating in a very positive scenario. The oil demand forecast is expected to grow this year. Among the supportive factors, China ditched its zero-COVID policies. As a consequence, industrial activity is expected to rebound strongly, and so is also international air traffic. According to the IEA, global demand is expected to hit 102 million bbl a day, higher than any previous expectations. The global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in the first half of this year, as well explained in the chart in the right-hand side. The balance could quickly shift to deficit in the second part of the year as demand recovers and some Russian output is shutting. Indeed, you know that Russia already announced it to cut approximately 500,000 bbl a day in this year.With the declining of Russian production and the limited gains expected from the rest of the OPEC, the other non-OPEC+ producer will be supporting supply growth this year, mainly U.S. Overall, global oil supply is forecast to expand by 1.2 million bbl a day in this year. As far the expected Brent data, the analysts expect a level between $80-$85, in spite to the movement of the last few days. Oil demand is expected to grow as well after a slowdown in the second part of the year. Over China issues these zero policies and after activity is expected to rebound strongly, and it also has a traffic, as I said before. Going to the outlook for the year, our business will be affected by a very positive beginning of the year. The reference margin averaged more than $10 in this beginning of the year. We expect a solid outlook for 2023. Few relevant elements needed to be considered for the new year. Brent daily price is at a level substantially in line with current premiums on crude oil with [short-haul content], such as Azeri respective still higher compared to the historical average of $1- $2 a barrel, supported with high margin of middle distillate. The high freight cost should remain unfortunately high as well. Diesel crack is expected to remain bit high and well above the historical averages. Gasoline crack is expected to normalize to a historical levels. Italian power price, the pool is going to remain still subject to and exposed to the volatility of gas prices. In this regard, should be reminded that the extension of the tax credit to energy intensive companies is currently not envisaged for up to the first quarter of the year. CO2 here under pressures with recent increase close to EUR 100 per ton. Having said that, we expect to achieve a premium positive between $5-$6 above the EMC, in line with the storage, the historical average. Compared to the extraordinary premium achieved this year, the expected premium for the year reflect a lower contribution from trading performances due to a partial normalization of the distillate cracks and the effect of persisting pressure on light sweet crude. In this year, we'll have to perform some maintenance that are mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and most of them are right now being completed or in advanced stage of completion. The investment should be higher than in the past at EUR 180 million, because in any case, there is a part of backlog due to the lower investment of the previous year that needed to be completed. Despite the cost, the inflations, we are working to contain our ordinary OPEX and our runs will be in the region of 88 million bbl and 98 million bbl per year. Slightly below the previous year. The output of our power plant will be slightly before the previous year, but not in material way. On the on the renewables, as I said before, we have already started the construction of our solar plant. We expect to complete it by the beginning of 2024. In any case, our colleagues expect to receive the full authorization for additional wind farm in Sardinia. We are talking of approximately 50 MW of internally development project. The execution of this project should increase our CapEx commitment to a profit of EUR 70 million per annum. Having said that, the global outlook still extremely positive. Thank- I completed my presentations, and we are ready to take your questions. Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove your question, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. We will pause for a moment while participants join the queue. The first question is from Marco Cristofori of Intesa Sanpaolo. Good afternoon, everyone. A couple of questions, if I may. The first one is, let's say strategic, and is, apart from the increased CapEx you presented, I guess you will still increase net cash at end 2023. It's something that you want to maintain a net cash position also in future or how are you going to use this excess cash? My second question is on the embargo against all Russian oil derivatives started last February. Are you seeing any impact from this, which impact could have on cracks? Finally, on shareholder remuneration, you increase the dividend, are you going to keep the same dividend policy, and if you are planning any share buyback? Thank you. Okay, just to change the subject, I switch to Marco. First of all, one second. First of all, one second. First of all, good afternoon, everyone. I take the second one on the embargo. Let's say that the embargo, both on crude and products, had a positive effect on diesel cracks in particular. Now, after the second round of sanction on February 5th, the market now finally stabilized. The market found a new equilibrium at a very high level of diesel cracks. In particular, now we are around $25 per bbl, which is well above historical levels. I remember that during normal periods, pre-COVID, diesel cracks were around $10-$15 per bbl, which is a sort of normal level for this type of product. Now we are, after the second round of the market, of all the embargoes, market on Middle East continues to be very tight and there is a strong inefficiency in the market. We saw flows, we saw this from the increase of mileage, and these inefficiencies are reflecting to higher diesel cracks, which are now, as we said before, well above historical levels. He first question related to the CapEx, our CapEx are not extraordinary investment. Our the cost we have to plan and to consider just to support the evolutions of our refinery that is very complex. It needed to be supported by constant level. Of course, we are not planning any, at the time being, extraordinary investment into the into the into the asset. In terms of the excess of cash, part of this excess of cash, as you well know, I tried to describe before, should be utilized to pay the windfall tax at the beginning of at the beginning of June. And through the evolution of the business, our aim is to keep a very solid capital structure of the of the company If there are other opportunities, will be evaluated in the course of the next year. Your last question was related to the dividend policy. The dividend policy is in place, and at the time being, it is the policy that the board has always taking into consideration. Also this year, we are paying the 40% of the comparable net result. Of course, in this case, because if we don't the windfall tax is considered a non-recurring cost, is not included into the comparable, but of course, the adjusted takes out this amount, and we are the EUR 0.19 is perfectly in line with this policy. The answer is, for the time being, yes. Thank you. He share buyback at the time being is not taken into consideration The next question is from Massimo Bonisoli of Equita. Good afternoon. I have one set of question on corporate governance and one on CapEx. Starting from corporate governance, Franco, if you can disclose the duration of your tenure as a new general manager, if any, and the powers that will be splitted between the general manager and the CEO, which was something that belongs to a few years ago, if I remember correctly. If you can remember also if the general manager will be named within the Board of Directors. The second question is on CapEx, if you can also say something about the renewable CapEx for 2024 and 2025. You have a target of up to 500 MW by 2025, so what's left to be spent on CapEx, on CapEx plan? Okay. thank you, Massimo, for your question. As far as first on the corporate governance that relate to me, thanks God, for a long time. Okay. For a long time. As far the CapEx in the renewable, we have planned EUR 70 million for this year, for the completion of part of the investment for Helianto that is in line with EUR 90 million and EUR 90. For the development of the additional capacity, of course, the CapEx is strictly related to the timing of the authorization. For the time being, without any authorizations, we can't plan any new investment. I can confirm that the strategy of the company is to grow in this sector. As you know better than me, that more or less we are talking about EUR 1 million for MW. Okay. Very clear. Regarding the powers splitted between general manager and CEO, I don't remember actually the how was the separation between the two figure as manager? In line of principle, the general manager has the power to manage the company. The structural power are perfectly in line with the power of the CEO. Let me. Apart from the small details, to be very honest, I'm not able to describe you right now. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. I'm charged, not We are about to close the Q&A session. Okay. If you have any questions. Thank you. Okay. Sir, at this time there are no questions registered. I thank you very much for your for participating to our call, and I see you at the middle of May for. For any additional questions, we are always available to receive them at the IR department. Have a great day. Thank you very much to you all. Thank you. Bye. Bye-bye.
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