Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Saras Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Miss Ilaria Candotti, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Saras Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results. Today, our Deputy CEO, Franco Balsamo, will start with the main highlights of the year, then our Chief Commercial Officer, Marco Schiavetti, will discuss the oil market and refining margin. Afterward, our CFO, Fabio Peretti, will provide more details on the fourth quarter, on financial results, and on the net financial position. To conclude, Franco will give the guidance for 2024 and wrap up the presentation by discussing the outlook. At this point, we will open up to the Q&A session. As a reminder for both on the phone, the slide deck, as well as the press release, are available as usual from the Investor Relations section on our website. I will now turn the call over to Franco. Okay. Thank you, Ilaria, and thank you for joining us. As we have already seen on the screen, we had in 2023 a very solid year, and we reached a comparable EBITDA of EUR 669 million. The refining market remains strong, even if lower than last year, and Saras margin averaged at $12.2 a barrel throughout the year. However, we face some operational disruption, also due to external events not dependent from our activity, which reduces our premium by approximately $1 per barrel. Despite the challenges, we were still able to push refining runs and maintain output at 13.5 million tons, including a complementary feedstock. Feed costs were slightly higher than previous year, according to heavier maintenance schedule, including the important ten-year turnaround of our power plant, the IGCC plant, and some repair works to fix the consequences of the previously mentioned external event. We are confident then, this year, in 2024, this cost will normalize. On the renewable side, our development program continues, focusing on market opportunities and in line with our capital allocation principle. In particular, the construction of our photovoltaic plant, Elianto, is on schedule, both for cost and timing, and we expect to start operations by the end of June. Net comparable profits stood at EUR 325 million, with a reduction of net financial charges and a lower tax rate. Indeed, as you well remember, 2020, 2024... In 2022, we had withholding tax, and that this year was not applicable. In terms of financial positions, our group generated a very strong cash flow from operations, which covered the cash out for taxes, ordinary and extraordinary results, dividend, CapEx, and all the other financial charges. Overall, the net financial position at the end of December 2023 remained positive at EUR 166 million post the application of the IFRS 16. With this result, the board today approved the payment of a dividend of EUR 0.15, that represents 44% of the payout, that is in line with historical dividend policies, that with the dividend that represent between 40%-60% of the comparable net income. As far as this year is concerned, we expect 2024 to be another positive year for us. The outlook is solid for refining margins. Our power plant will continue to operate under the Essentiality Regime. And in addition, our traditional activity, we should benefit from the positive contribution of the expansion of the renewable. The financial structure is set to remain strong. ... allowing us to comfortably navigate in the very volatile market. Having said that, Marco will dive us also into the analysis. Thank you, Franco, for the introduction, and good afternoon, everyone. During Q4, we had the usual high volatility, with Brent floating around an average of $84 per barrel. With the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the usual OPEC Plus cuts able to put a floor to the Brent quotations. Moving to differentials on the right side of the page. We had a reduction of the discounts of the medium heavy sour crudes, represented by Basra, Basra Medium. Since OPEC cuts have consistently reduced the availability of such type of crudes. On the sweet grade, represented on the graph by the Azeri, Azeri Light quotations, same pattern with an increase of premiums, mainly due to a healthy gasoil crack and stronger tanker freight rates, due to the tensions and issues in the Middle East. Combining these two effects, the net result has been a lower sort of premium over the benchmark, which will be discussed later on in the financial section. Moving to cracks, next slide. A very healthy quarter. Q4, still characterized by a strong diesel crack, averaging $27 per barrel, well above historical values, almost double the historical values, as you can see from the graph. Highlighting tight supply, notwithstanding a mild winter with lower demand of heating gasoil. On the gasoline, we had a decline, entering a normal decline, entering the winter season, with values more in line with historical averages, around $10 per barrel, which in any case is a very healthy level also for gasoline. Gasoline market continued to be very tight, with a persistent shortage of high octane components, keeping the cracks at very healthy levels. Few comments on energy costs, power, and CO2. Cost of electricity in Italy was around 124 EUR per MW hour, significantly lower than same period of 2023, when obviously, as you can remember, gas quotations were under pressure, but higher than Q3, in line with the natural increase of gas quotation approaching the winter. CO2 was instead stable around EUR 76 per ton, with minor changes versus previous quarter and the same period last year. Moving to the outlook. The outlook continued to be positive, thanks to a resilient demand on one side and a constrained refining capacity on the other side, which at the end are leading to healthy cracks. Demand continued to grow this year and also beyond 2024. We expect according to all the major reporting agencies in excess of 1 million barrels per day increase during 2024, with the main contributors being China, India, and Brazil, more than compensating the decline in the OECD countries. On the supply side, OPEC+ had no choice but to confirm cuts also for 2024. The positive here is an increased availability of sour crudes, mainly from Venezuela and other non-OPEC countries that should help to reduce the pressure on premiums. Moving to cracks, we expect light distillates to remain healthy, in particular, approaching the summer with good demand. In Europe, we see a strong increase in gasoline consumption due to the switch from diesel to hybrid cars, and, as I mentioned before, a persistent shortage of high octane components due to the embargo with Russia. On middle distillates, we continue to see cracks above historical averages, with extremely low inventories in OECD, coupled with supply disruptions due to the well-known problems with the Suez Canal. Finally, regarding refining capacity, the new project coming on stream, net of closures in OECD, should be on par or even below the incremental demand and keeping the cracks at a very healthy levels. So let me now hand over to Fabio for the financial section. Thank you, Marco, and good afternoon to everyone. Moving now to the group's financial highlights. 2023 results, as Franco mentioned, were solid, with a reported EBITDA of about EUR 662 million and a comparable EBITDA of about EUR 670 million. Notwithstanding the early maintenance scheduled in the first half of the year and the impact of the unexpected operational outages, which occurred in Q2 and in Q3, also with two external factors not dependent on Saras's activities. In the fourth quarter, reported EBITDA amounted to EUR 79.5 million, and comparable EBITDA stood at about EUR 110 million.... With the main differences with the reported figures due to scenario effect on changing inventories between the start and the end of the period, which are not included in the comparable results. Our Q4 comparable EBITDA derives from a healthy refining margin of $9.2, which compares to approximately EUR 320 million in Q4 2022, with an exceptional margin of $17.5. The large differences between the two periods derives mainly from the scenario, which are both still very positive, we saw a reduction in the crack spread of the main product, and the reduction is powerfully differential. Despite the performance, Q4 results were still affected by the consequences of the blackout occurred in Q3, and not dependent on from Saras responsibility, due to the remaining maintenance activities required to restore the full operational efficiency. Q4 reported net results reached EUR 440 million, and comparable net results stood at EUR 65 million, with the main difference due to the scenario effect on inventories, which accounted for EUR 17 million, and to the impact of non-recurring items for EUR 7 million. Our comparable net results compared to about EUR 260 million in Q4 2022, with the main differences related to the less favorable market conditions as described at the EBITDA level, while our reported net results compared to about EUR 70 million in Q4 2022, with the 2022 results impacted by higher scenario effect on inventories, which were under EUR 15 million, and by the higher impact of non-recurring items, mainly to do with income tax. Finally, our net financial position before IFRS 16 effect reached EUR 202.7 million, up from EUR 194.5 million back in September. Thanks to the strong cash generation and to the reduction of our working capital, which balanced the cash out on investment, interest, expense, and taxes. As usual, more detail will be provided later on in our specific slide. Moving now into the segment analysis, starting from the industrial and marketing, the full quarter comparable EBITDA was about EUR 99 million, with the marketing channel accounting for 15. The EBITDA was lower compared to the one achieved in the same period of last year, in light of the less favorable market conditions, compared to the exceptional level of 2022. The impact of the scenario accounted for a lower EBITDA by EUR 225 million, and was mainly due to lower crack of diesel and gasoline, and higher cost of our crude slate, that, as mentioned, was due to the squeeze of sour discount, as well as the weakening of the US dollar. Not including the scenario effect, our gross margin in Q4 was 18 million higher than last year, with a supply and trading performance that continued to be very positive in the realization of our production through maintenance channel, but without the negative impact of the strong recordation that occurred in 2022. The other commercial results compensated for the weaker productive performance that, as mentioned, were also impacted by external effects, and also for the lower availability of goods on the market, which reduced our opportunity to optimize the refinery crude slate. Within this regard, the remuneration of the power plant under the Essentiality Regime accounted in the quarter for EUR 27 million. On the other hand, variable costs were broadly in line with last year, despite the rolling back of the third decree in the third quarter, and thanks to the normalization of the energy prices. These costs were slightly higher than last year for about EUR 4 million, mainly for higher maintenance costs and as a consequence of the turnarounds already mentioned. If you look at the full year results, comparable EBITDA stood at EUR 646 million, compared to EUR 1,099 million in 2022, and also in this case, the larger part of the difference is attributable to the scenario for the same reason previously described. Look at industrial and marketing CapEx. In Q4, CapEx stood at about EUR 22 million, bringing the annual CapEx at EUR 178 million, in line with our guidance and above the 2022 level. The 2023 CapEx reflects the greater maintenance activities, including the power plant multi-year turnaround, and the restart of investment in logistics and other areas needed to improve our productive performance, as well as the start up of the energy transition activities such as biofuel, logistics, and energy efficiency. Moving to the industrial margin, as mentioned in the fourth quarter, it stood at $9.2, while the EMC reference margin was $6.2. Saras Q4 premium was $3. In comparison, in 2022, Saras margin was $17.5, and the EMC reference margin was $13.3, and our premium was $4.2. The difference in the premium of the quarter were mainly due to a combination of factors. First of all, the average cost of crude that penalize complex refinery like Saras, but did not have any influence on the EMC reference margin, was nearly 7% price above Brent. Overall, this factor reduced our premium of about $1.5 per barrel. A second impact came from the increase of the High Sulfur Fuel Oil crack, which represents 7% of the EMC reference yield, while Saras refinery typically does not produce it. In particular, in Q4 2023, the HSFO spread was -$17, while in Q4 2022, it was -$32. The aggregate HSFO crack in the quarter led to an improvement in the reference margin, which was not reflected in the Saras margin, worth about $0.5 per barrel... These negative impacts were partially compensated by the higher margin generated by our supply and trading activities and, marketing activities as well. Looking at the full year, the sales margin stood at about $12.2 per barrel, and the EMC reference margin averaged $8.2, with a premium of $4. As already described for the fourth quarter, also for the full year premium, the reduction of the scenario effect was due to differential and the HSFO forecast spread. Netting the EMC margin from this scenario effect, the EMC adjusted would have stood at 7.2, and sales premium would have been higher at $5 per barrel. In the renewable segment, the fourth quarter EBITDA was EUR 11.5 million, slightly above last year results. The quarterly results were driven by an increase in wind production that was compensated by a reduction in the average tariff. The production was 106 GWh, up from 68 GWh of last year, mainly for stronger wind contribution, while the average power tariff was 116 EUR/MWh, down from 125 EUR/MWh of last year, mainly for the reduction in the market price. It is worth to remind that in Q4 2023, the production is entirely sold on market price, while in Q4 2022, about 53% of the production was sold with a price cap of EUR 61, and about 20% of the production was sold with a price cap of EUR 108. In addition, Q4 2022, 13% of the production received an incentive equal to EUR 43 per MW hour, and the overall results benefited by a positive of EUR 3.8 million for the release of accrual related to price cap made in the previous quarter. Going to the full year, the EBITDA was equal to approximately EUR 24 million, compared to EUR 38 million of last year. As described for the quarter, for the quarter result, the variation was due to lowest average power tariff captured this year. Despite the higher production in 2023, that was generated by more favorable wind conditions, entirely occurred in Q4. Looking at CapEx, in the quarter, we invested EUR 50 million, and this lead to an annual CapEx of EUR 46 million, entirely allocated to the development of the Elianto photovoltaic plant. As Franco mentioned, the project is on schedule. The development status is roughly 80%, and we expect and confirmed to reach commercial operation in, at the end of the second quarter of next year. For what concerns our net financial position, we ended the year with a net cash of EUR 203 million before IFRS 16 effect, substantially in line with the previous quarter, when it was 195. Our cash flow from operation was EUR 104 million, including EUR 24 million of Forex deliveries. Our working capital decreased, seeing up about EUR 21 million, and the working capital reduction was due to the increase in trade payables, mainly for increased stock purchases and to the reduction of the trade receivable, both for price effect and the issue reduction. This reduction more than compensated the cash out for excise duty, advanced payment, and for the full reimbursement of the Power and Gas Authority of the higher margin generated within the Essentiality Regime in 2022. Our CapEx expenditures was EUR 37 million. Our interest expense were negative by EUR 8 million, and the second advanced payment for the 2023 income taxes was EUR 71 million. So all in all, our cash generation in the quarter was positive for EUR 8 million. And now, I give back the floor to Franco for his final remarks. Okay, thanks. Finally, I would like to share some update regarding our activity in 2024. As we have described before, following important maintenance schedule that we have completed last year, we are not expecting the refinery runs to reach 97 million barrels-101 million barrels per year, with our power productions between 4.1 gigawatt hour and 4.3 gigawatt hour, and the plant will operate under the Essentiality Regime. The fixed cost, we have anticipated EUR 384 million, lower than last year, and this is due to initiatives of optimizations that we began last year and which we expect will be in place this year, and is good enough to offset the impact of material cost inflations. CapEx should remain in line with the 2023 levels at EUR 170 million-EUR 180 million, as we have opted for some technical upgrades, and we have approved a few projects that should also improve our energy efficiencies. More precisely, some investment which were partially delayed from previous years will be carried out this year and in the coming next couple of years. Just to mention, some examples, this year we will be the turnaround of the alkylation unit, the sulfur recovery unit, topping and vacuum, as well as other smaller maintenance activity on other units. As Marco well explained before, we are expecting a context in 2024 of stronger refining margins, supported by healthy crack spread for diesel and gasoline. Under these market conditions, we do believe that our premium over the EMC reference margin is expected to be in a region between $3.5/barrel-$4.5/barrel. Indeed, while both Saras and the EMC reference margin are expected to benefit from the healthy crack spread, only Saras margin will be influenced by the squeeze differential on sour crude oils, and this, as Fabio explained before, is due to the continuation of OPEC+ Russia production cut. Once again, we mentioned that the EMC reference margin is calculated on the crude slate price at 100%, Brent. Regarding our evolution on our investment in the renewable business, we plan to invest around EUR 40 million to complete the Elianto plant, start the operations by the end of June. And we have other construction, additional 13 MWs of solar plants within our industrial site. We are in a phase to start the preliminary phase for the construction of another wind farm. But we'll update them on this in the next quarter. Having said that, after the payment of the dividend approved by the board today, the financial structure is set to remain robust, and the net financial position at the end of 2024 will be positive. Thank you for your attention. We are ready now to take your questions. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press Star and One on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press Star and Two. We kindly ask to pick up your phone when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press Star and One at this time. The first question is from Niccolò Storer of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Three, if I may. The first one is on your premium guidance. I was wondering if the contribution to the premium from the power generation is expected to remain stable in 2024 compared to 2023, or if you are having from the renewal of the essentiality status any changes? The second one is on Elianto. If you can share with us how much of CapEx is still missing for the completion of the plant? Just Elianto, so not considering the additional 13 MW you mentioned. The third question is on the tight market you mentioned for gasoline, in particular for high octane gasoline, and I was wondering how the recent export ban by Russia could impact this market, if there might be a worsening of the situation translating into higher cracks going forward? Thank you. Okay. Marco, you want to... Is the last question? I go with the last one. Yes, your assumptions are correct. The ban in Russia is helping to keep the market tight. There are some components, naphtha and semi-finished components, coming from Russia, not available anymore. This obviously is helping to keep the market, in particular, the high octane components, very tight, and this should be really supportive for the gasoline cracks, at least during 2024. Nicolò, for what concerns the impact of the power generation, the premium, on the premium guidance, it is stable, compared to the one of this year. The Elianto CapEx to complete the plant about EUR 40 million. Uh, yeah. Yeah, EUR 25 million to complete Elianto and other EUR 50 million to complete the other additional 13 MW of new plant. So Elianto, EUR 25 million, the remaining, EUR 50 million. Perfect. Thank you. The next question is from Paolo Citi of Intermonte. Please go ahead. Hello. Hi, good afternoon, everyone. I have another question again on Sarlux, and in particular, on the CO₂ emissions, and in particular, on provision for CO₂ allowances. Last year, they were around EUR 221 million, out of the total, EUR 268 million total provisions for risk and charges. I saw this year, this figure increased a little bit to EUR 277 million. So I, I'd like to have the figure for CO₂, if possible. And then, second question on this, in particular, I'd like to understand if this amount is still could be partly reimbursed by Terna, as referred to the Sarlux plant, or is a full liability for Saras? Thanks. I'm not sure I get all your question, but for what concerns the allowances for the CO₂ emission, they will be stable in 2024 at 2.1 million tons. And this year, compared to the original projection, we had a little bit more of exposure to CO₂, but maybe was related for the transition in the production, you know, when you have, when we have the blackout and also the multi-year maintenance activities. Usually in the transition, you emit a little bit more of CO₂ while in the stable situation. So this was not entirely well planned in our model. So I think you are referring to the allowances for the refining, that it should have been around 1.7- Yes ... in 2023. So you say it's slightly higher this year, 2024? Sì, in 2024, there will be 2.1. Okay. Well, in reality, my question was slightly different. So I was referring to the provisions for CO₂ you have in your balance sheet. In 2022, it was EUR 221 million. I think this figure should have been almost stable in 2023, and I'd like to understand if part of this figure would be reimbursed by Terna or not. No, no, this figure, we will pay for this CO₂, and the accrual is EUR 233 million at the end of the year. 232? Yes. Okay. Okay, thank you very much. The next question is from, Massimo Bonisoli of Equita. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation. I would like to understand better the project you mentioned in your press release regarding the energy transition and the low carbon project in general, such as the carbon capture, bio fuels or green hydrogen. Considering the ongoing deal with Vitol, what would be the committed CapEx for those projects, and if those CapEx are, let's say, front-end loaded or maybe more in the next few years? Thank you. Okay, Massimo, thank you. I try to answer to this question. First of all, the company now is operating its activity as without any other involvement than our capability to manage the company within the existing perimeter of ownership, of course. The investment in energy transition are not material, are a few million EUR. In order to the investment are EUR 5 million-EUR 6 million a year, is a project in order to set the potential feed for investment in the biofuel rather than in SAF or a pilot plant in order to produce a minimum amount of e-fuel at the end of 2026. The other investment we have in our transition activity is the green hydrogen. We have already received the first grant for EUR 70 million. We are expecting the second contribution for the additional EUR 35 million. At the end of this second authorization, we will be in conditions to start the construction of the plant. For the time being, our investment we are doing for the future, but as we have not absorbing cash in a material substance. Very clear. Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Okay. Thank you very much for your participation. Have a good evening. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.
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