Good afternoon, this is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Saras First Quarter 2024 Results Conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Ilaria Candotti, Head of Investor Relations of Saras. Please go ahead, go ahead, madam. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Saras Group First Quarter 2024 Results. As a reminder, for those on the phone, the slide deck as well as the press release are available, as usual, from the Investor Relations section on our website. Today, our Deputy CEO, Franco Balsamo, will start with the main highlights of the quarter. Then, our Chief Commercial Officer, Marco Schiavetti, will discuss the oil markets and refining margins. Afterwards, our CFO, Fabio Peretti, will provide more details on the quarter, on segment results, and on the net financial position. To conclude, Franco will give the guidance for 2024, discussing the outlook. At this point, we will open up the Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to Franco. Thank you, Ilaria. Good afternoon to everybody, and thank you for your participation at this call. As we have seen from the press release, the first quarter, we had a positive result, reaching a comparable EBITDA of EUR 198 million, lower than the EUR 285 million of the same period of the last year. This is mainly due to a still solid oil scenario, even if it's less favorable than the same period of last year. Crack spread stood higher than historical standard, but they were below the value achieved last year. Just to give you some figures, the EMC averaged $8.2 barrel this quarter, and last year was $10. Having said that, our industrial marketing margin averaged this quarter $12 compared to the $16 of last year, and this, we will see later on with Fabio, is mainly due to the squeezed discount on sour crude grade. Nonetheless, our premium increased by almost $3 a barrel compared to the last quarter of this year. That is a very important trend. The refinery performed well. We granted 25 million barrels in the quarter, slightly higher than the same period of last year. Renewables, our development program continues. We are focused on the construction on our solar plant, Helianto. That is on schedule, both for cost and timing, and we confirm that we will start operations by the end of June, next month. Net comparable result stood at EUR 97 million, with a higher interest rate cost and the negative effect of the exchange rate differences compared to last year. Financial positions ended with a positive cash flow at EUR 139 million, thanks to the cash flow generated by operations for EUR 127 million, while the change in working capital was negative for EUR 190 million. But we'll see in the next slide the details of the gap. CapEx stood at EUR 31 million, mainly on refinery maintenance activity and the advanced activity on the solar plant. We will see later on, but for the year, we expect to be another positive year for the company, with net refining margins, IGCC operating under the essentiality regime, and positive contribution from the renewables. This shall allow us to keep very strong financial positions at the year-end. Now, I leave the floor to Marco that will analyze the market dynamics. Thank you, Franco, for the introduction. Talking about Brent, Brent has been trading in the range $80-$85 per barrel during the quarter, always well sustained, with OPEC+ cuts extended, extreme weather conditions in North America, and also the Houthi attack on the Red Sea pushing prices higher and keeping the values always above $80 per barrel. Moving to differentials on the right side of the page. On sour crude, the effect of OPEC+ cuts are pushing heavy sour premiums high because, obviously, the cuts are reducing their market availability, narrowing discounts compared to the same period of last year. In fact, if you look at Basrah Medium, which is one of the key benchmarks in terms of sour crudes, the average was minus $2.5 in the quarter compared to $-7 during Q1 2023. Nevertheless, the discount has increased compared to Q4 last quarter of last year, Q4 2023, thanks to, in particular, to additional availability of some grades, in particular Venezuelan crude. Looking at the sweet differentials, Azeri Light, which is the key benchmark for light sweet, stood at a premium of $6.5 per barrel, more or less in line with the same period of last year, but increased versus last quarter of 2023. Premiums here are sustained by healthy Middle East OPEC cracks, as well as by higher freight rates for cross-net voyages. All in all, the combined effect of these changes, including differentials, continues to put pressure on the premium that Saras is able to achieve above the EMC benchmark, but we will discuss it later on. Moving to crack spreads, still a very healthy quarter for diesel, $26 per barrel, well above historical averages and in line with the previous quarter, supported by high freight costs due to the limitation, as already explained, on the crossing of the Red Sea and the OPEC+ cuts, which are basically cutting availability of sour crudes mainly used in the production of Middle East distillates. Moreover, in the first week of the period, several weather conditions in North America caused several refineries to halt operations, reducing export flows towards Europe, and this pushed ULSD cracks to reach about $36 per barrel in the second week of February, one of the historical highs. But then this trend reversed immediately after due also to large volume of diesel coming from Asia, Middle East, and the U.S., bringing diesel cracks to more normal levels. Also, gasoline cracks continue to remain extremely strong. We had gasoline cracks up 60% compared to Q4 2023, setting an average of $16 per barrel. Diesel gasoline crack, sorry, continue to remain strong. Support is coming mainly from growing demand in Europe due to the switch of new car sales from diesel to hybrid gasoline and also from the persistent shortage of gasoline components due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Moving to energy costs, we have electricity prices down at an average of EUR 92 per MWh compared to an average of 157 the same period of 2023, and down also 26% compared to previous quarter. This trend is following, basically, the trend of natural gas, with mild winter and certain macroeconomic conditions pushing gas prices down to EUR 29 per MWh compared to approximately EUR 41 in fourth quarter 2023. For the CO2, we had an average of EUR 60 per ton, also here down compared to previous period as a result of weaker industrial production in the European Union area. Moving to the market outlook for 2024, we confirm our positive view for 2024 in the light of resilient demand on one side, constrained capacity on the other one, both leading to strong middle and light distillate cracks. On the demand side, all the major reporting agencies are pointing to a growth in excess of 1 million barrels per day for the year 2024, with the usual trend, with OECD decreasing and the rest of the world, mainly India, China, and Brazil, more than compensating the reduction in OECD. In particular, gasoline cracks will continue to remain above historical values thanks to unhealthy demand driven by the switch of new car sales from diesel and hybrid, as explained before, and the persistent shortage of low-octane components due to the missing flows from Russia. And last but not least, the fact that we are approaching the summer driving season when demand is naturally growing. On middle distillates, we saw a sharp decrease of cracks during April and also beginning of May due to the record high imports of diesel from Middle East and U.S., in particular. This has caused the cracks to flop during April and beginning of May in the range between $15-$20 per barrel, which are still above historical levels but below what we have been used to in recent years. We expect this trend to reverse. Imports are already decreasing, and we expect this weakness to be temporary, with import decreasing and cracks returning above $20 per barrel during the summer. Let me hand over now to Fabio for the discussion of this segment. Thank you, Marco. Moving to the group financial, our first quarter results were solid. Reported EBITDA amounted to EUR 177 million thanks to favorable market conditions, although normalizing compared to those of last year, and positive production performance in line with the one achieved in the same quarter of last year. The results of the quarter were also influenced by the recognition of about EUR 44 million for diverted cost of fuel for the years under the CIP6 regime. Reported net results were EUR 77 million, with net financial costs that were higher if compared to last year, mainly for the increase in interest rate and the negative impact on exchange rate differences. In the quarter, the reported results were negatively influenced by the scenario effect on inventories and related aging derivatives for about EUR 27 million. Thus removing these impacts and reclassifying into the EBITDA exchange derivatives that were negative for about EUR 6.5 million, our comparable results were EUR 198 million at EBITDA level and EUR 97 million in terms of net results. Finally, our net financial position before IFRS 16 effect at the end of the quarter was about EUR 139 million, with a strong cash generation for the operation compensated by an increase in working capital, mainly due to the increase in trade receivable and reduction of provision found for CO2 allowances. Moving now to the segment analysis, starting from the Refining and Marketing, Q1 comparable EBITDA was about EUR 190 million, with the market challenge accounting for EUR 6.4 million. The impacts of the scenario accounted for a reduction of EUR 92 million. Although market conditions were still very solid, this amount takes into account the effect of lower diesel cracks reducing about $4, lower gasoline cracks reducing for about $3, and higher cost of crude slate, which, as mentioned, was due to the squeeze on sour discount of almost $5. Operating performance had an overall negative impact of EUR 28 million, mainly due to the normalization of market scenario, which has also impacted product sales premium and third-party trading opportunities. The productive performance was in line with expectation. The first cluster of maintenance activities involving the alkylation, tail gas treatment, and the slowdown of one of our topping were performed according to plan. Finally, for what concerns our production planning performance, we had a positive contribution, mainly from the optimization of the light sweet crude. Marketing results were lower of about EUR 8 million. Also, in this channel, the main driver was the normalization of the sale premiums, especially in the Spanish market. Variable costs were higher, with a negative impact of EUR 17 million that was related to higher energy costs due to the lack of the contribution from the so-called Third Decree, which expired in June 2023 and notwithstanding the normalization of the energy crisis. On the other hand, fixed costs were EUR 12 million lower compared to the same period of last year, in line with our yearly guidance and for a different distribution of costs throughout the year. Looking at the CapEx level, they were in line with our maintenance plan as to the EUR 27 million in the quarter. For what concerns the Saras Industrial Marketing margin, in the first quarter, it stood at $12 per barrel, increasing of almost $3 if compared to the results of the fourth quarter of 2023. This increase is attributable to the higher margin available on the market and to the improvement in the performance of the refineries. Our premium over the EMC reference margin was $3.9 per barrel, in line with our yearly guidance to achieve a premium between $3.5 and $4.5 per barrel. It's worth remembering, as we said before, that Saras' premium guidance for 2024 is still impacted if compared with historical levels by the high cost of crude. In the renewable segment, first quarter EBITDA was EUR 8 million, EUR 2 million above last year's results, and the quarterly results were mainly driven by an increase in the wind production. The production was 22 GWh higher than last year thanks to improved wind conditions, which accounted for 17 GWh, fewer grid limitations, which accounted for 4 GWh, and the remaining for the improved mechanical availability. The average power tariff was EUR 85 per megawatt-hour, down from EUR 97 in Q1 2023 as a result of the lower electricity price. It is worth reminding that our production is now entirely sold at market price, while in Q1 2023, about 53% of the production was sold with a price cap of EUR 61 per MWh, and the rest was sold at an average tariff of EUR 137 per megawatt-hour. In addition to the tariff, in the first quarter, 12% of the production received an incentive equal to EUR 42 per MWh. In the quarter, we invested EUR 4 million entirely related to the development of a Helianto photovoltaic plant, and the project development status is roughly at 86% and in line with our expectations. Finally, I'm glad to mention that we obtained a positive environmental impact assessment, the so-called VIA, for a new wind farm of about 25 MW. As regards net financial position, we end the first quarter with a net cash of EUR 139 million, with a net cash absorption in the quarter of about EUR 62 million. As mentioned in the quarter, the cash generation from the operation was strong at about EUR 127 million, benefiting also from a positive impact of EUR 31 million, mainly for the income taxes of the region, not GST. Our cash absorption was related to investment for EUR 31 million and to the increase in working capital for about EUR 189 million. The working capital increase was due to an increase in trade receivable and a reduction of provision found for the CO2 allowances. On the oil side, the receivable increased both for scenario effect and for higher volumes, while on the non-oil side, the increase was related to the timing of the essentiality reimbursement. The provision for CO2 reduced both for the scenario effect and for the purchase of emission certificate carried out in the quarter. Let me now hand over to Franco. Thank you, Fabio. I'm going to conclude this presentation with some updates regarding our outlook for this year, and we confirm our guidance in the range between $3.5 and $4.5 a barrel. Starting from our activity in the refinery, we have the completion of the maintenance activity in the first quarter that included a turnaround of the alkylation unit and, as Fabio said before, the tail gas treatment unit, and also taking into consideration the impact of the remaining activities already planned in the coming quarters that shall involve the turnaround of distillation unit and vacuum units, as well as many other smaller activities. All the process went in line with the expected schedule. We expect our full-year refinery runs in the range between 97-100 million barrels, and the power productions between 4.1-4.3 TWh under, of course, the Essentiality Regime, and all those in line with the industrial guidance already released. In terms of fixed costs, we confirm our guidance between EUR 380-EUR 400 million. These expected costs are below the levels of last year, and this is thanks to the optimization initiative that we started last year that, in principle, should have set the negative impact due to the inflation. Industrial CapEx are expected to remain in line with last year, between EUR 170-EUR 180 million. The scope is to implement technical upgrades to improve some energy efficiency initiatives and mainly to maintain our plants in fully operational and competitive conditions. In terms of refining margins, as Marco went explaining before, the independent agencies predict levels above the historical average and supported by LT gasoline crack spread, as well as a recovery of diesel crack spread in the second part of the year, upfront recent loss. Taking into account, the changes include differential versus Brent that have been less favorable due to the Red Sea squeeze by OPEC+ production cut. In any case, our premium over the EMC, as I said before, is expected to be in the range between $3.5-$4.5 a barrel, in line with the guidance. The renewable business, we are planning to invest EUR 40 million, most of this to complete the Helianto plant that shall start commercial operation next month, at the end of June. Financial structure is set to remain robust with a positive financial position at the end of the year. We are going to pay the dividend next week, and that's it for our presentation of today. We are ready to take your questions. Thank you. This is the Saras conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. Going through your appendix, I've seen the crude slate in Q1 has changed quite a bit, and it looks like you are increasing the amount of sour heavy grades compared to the Light Sweet grades. And I was wondering, is that a reflection of what's happening in the Red Sea, or is it just something else that potentially is driving you to purchase more of the heavy grades? And also, maybe on the net cash position, I think your guidance, you continue to have a qualitative guidance of a positive net cash position. I was wondering, assuming constant prices, what will be the trajectory of net cash from here? Thank you. Alessandro, take the first one on the oil slate composition. It's just a matter of maintenance that we add in Q1. There is not a specific strategy behind. It's just to comply with the plants' availability, which led to a higher rate of sour crudes, but there is not a specific strategy behind it. Okay. Just wondering on the geopolitical tensions. Of course, we've seen an increase in flight rates. Is that having an impact on the EMC or on the premium? Freight rate, yes, there is an impact, which is, as we explained during the presentation, is supportive for the cracks because all the routes are disoptimized. And therefore, yes, it's true that on one side, the supply of crude is more expensive, but also on the product side, all the diesel coming into Europe is definitely more expensive because everything has to go through the Cape. So at the end, all these logistical disoptimizations are helpful and are supporting diesel cracks in particular. So every disoptimization is adding volatility in the market, and it's supportive for the business in general. Okay. In terms of additional cost, I know it's positive, but what will be the additional cost per barrel just purely from a higher freight rates for you? It may be. It depends on what diesel depends on the routes, obviously. It can be $1 per barrel, $1 per barrel, or additional cost, but then it's passed into the final consumer because this leads to an additional to an higher crack, in particular diesel, and then that's it. It's pretty neutral for refiners. All right. Thank you. And on the net cash? Alexander, for what concerns net financial position, it's always difficult to give an exact figure for the year-end because, as you know, there are a lot of component scenarios, but also the working capital evolution that may affect the final figure. What we could probably say is that, as you know, we're going and Franco said we're going to pay roughly EUR 143 million for dividend. We will have to pay roughly EUR 140 million of CapEx and roughly EUR 100 million of tax. And we expect that we will be able, with the cash generation, to, let's say, still remain with a net cash position positive at the end of the year. Is there any other material items in the working capital for the rest of the year? Not really. Then, of course, it depends mainly from timing of the exit of the vessel and the scenario. But as far as we project now, not really. All right. Thank you very much. The next question is from Marco Cristofori in Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, everyone. A question on the deal with Vitol. If I may, you received the green light from the Italian government, but you are still missing the authorization under the European Union regulation. So just if you have in mind a deadline for the deal and therefore on the mandatory tender offer. My second question is also on Vitol, just to understand if, for the time being, you are having any cooperation from an industrial standpoint with this company in light of the future development. Thank you. Thank you for your answer. So we have received the information from the Golden Power procedure because Saras was part of the process. As far as the antitrust process is concerned, we don't have any disclosure of the expected end of the process. But considering the state of the art, in my point of view, in a couple of months, we should receive a green light from European Union. I don't know if we will be precisely, but. Europe is one of the largest brokers in this market, so we have regular business with them at that length when there are mutual economic conditions. But as far as your question, if there are activity or working group in order to start any form of new cooperation, the answer is it's not the right time. We are waiting all the necessary procedures, but in any case, we will go ahead at that length without any other form of integration at the time being. Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Massimo Bonisoli, Equita. Please go ahead. Good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation. A couple of questions from my side. Again, on Vitol, following the approvals from regulator, what would be the timetable then in the sense that we should expect immediately the mandatory offer from Vitol, or maybe there could be some time in between considering also the summer vacation and all the rest? And the second question is on the CapEx spending. First quarter was pretty low considering the budget for the full year. So just to understand the remaining part of the budget, if you have also maybe some flexibility in spending less than the guidance you provided. Thank you. Thank you, Martin, for the question. As I said in the previous question, we don't have view on the process, so I'm not in condition to answer to your question. For what concerns the CapEx, they are in line with the schedule of the maintenance. So the first quarter, we had some turnaround, but the remaining are coming in the second quarter, and then we will have more on the last quarter of the year. So as Franco said, our guidance is still unchanged for what concerns the industrial marketing. For the renewable, of course, a part of the CapEx that we have will depend on the authorization process. So for the time being, EUR 13 million are committed for Helianto, and the rest we will see. Thank you very much. Once again, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Okay. If you have another question, thank you for joining. Thank you very much for your participation and having a nice evening. Goodbye. Bye. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.
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