Hello, and welcome to Just Eat Takeaway Q1 2024 trading update. My name is Alicia, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this call is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to Jitse Groen, CEO, to begin today's conference. Thank you. Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to this analyst and investor conference call to discuss the first quarter 2024 trading update. On our corporate website, you can download our press release and the slides for this analyst and investor conference call. Given we published our full year results recently, and we issued a trading update only, today's presentation will be kept brief, after which we'll open the call for your questions. Brent Wissink, Jörg Gerbig, and Andrew Kenny are also here to provide answers. Regarding the question and answer session, as a reminder, we would request that each analyst ask one question. To manage your expectation, given this is a trading update only, we won't be able to comment on financial metrics for 2024. On the following slides, I will provide more details, but the key messages for today's updates are that the U.K. and Ireland accelerated GTV growth to 11% or 7% in constant currency in the first quarter of 2024. That we have continued momentum in GTV growth in Northern Europe. That we had constant currency GTV growth, excluding North America, of 3% in Q1 2024, within the 2024 guidance range of 2%-6% year-on-year. And lastly, that we reiterate our guidance, including adjusted EBITDA, of approximately EUR 450 million, and positive free cash flow before changes in working capital in 2024. Please follow me to slide three, where you can see the Northern Europe and U.K. and Ireland segments. These two segments in aggregate represent circa 60%, 60%, of group orders. We continue to see strong momentum in our Northern Europe segment, with year-on-year constant currency growth at 4% in the first quarter of 2024. We've continued to invest in expanding our logistics network across Northern Europe, enabling us to serve more consumers with a wider choice of partners, including a wide variety of supermarkets, cosmetics, and electronics. This delivery investment is important as it strengthens our mode and platform for future years. These investments will be weighted to the first half of the year. In the U.K. and Ireland segment, GTV growth further accelerated to 11% or 7% in constant currency in the first quarter. We've been very pleased with the progress around our supply and our overall consumer proposition in the U.K. over the past year, and it is pleasing to see that the segment also now return to order growth. This growth was in part supported by the continued momentum of our grocery business across the U.K., which we spoke about at length during our full year results. Operationally, we also continue to benefit from ongoing improvements in our logistics business, which is helping to support margin expansion while maintaining healthy levels of investing in price and marketing. Moving to slide four. On the left side of the page, SEA and NZ, are smaller segments, which represents 10% of orders. You can see that while the year-on-year growth continues to be negative, GTV has been stabilizing when looking at the quarter-by-quarter development. On the right side of the page, the graph indicates the improved GTV growth for the group, excluding North America, which represents 70% of group orders. On a constant currency basis, our GTV grew by 3% in the first quarter, within the 2024 guidance range of 2%-6% year-on-year. Moving to the next slide. On the left side of the page, you can see that while the year-on-year growth continues to be negative for the North America segment, GTV has also been stabilizing when looking at the quarter-by-quarter developments. Supported by a more favorable FX rate, the reported year-on-year growth for the segment improved materially on a sequential basis. As a result, GTV for the group, including North America, was down 2% in the first quarter of 2024 versus the same period last year, both on a reported as well as a constant currency basis. On the next slide, we summarize the combined results of the two share buyback programs that were launched in 2023. The first program was initiated in April and completed on 20 September, and we launched the second program in October last year. Up to and including 12 April, we repurchased approximately 19.7 million shares at an average price of EUR 13.80, representing 8.9% of issued shares. Based on yesterday's closing price of 13.94, the maximum final number of shares to be repurchased under the above mentioned two share buyback programs amounts to approximately 9.9% of issued shares. The repurchased shares will be used for settlement under employee incentive plans or will be canceled to reduce issued share capital to improve for future earnings per share. Moving to the next slide, where we reiterate our guidance for 2024. We expect constant currency GTV growth, excluding North America, to be in the range of 2%-6% year-on-year. We remain focused on profitability and expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA of approximately EUR 450 million. In line with the top-line growth trajectory and normal seasonality of our business, we expect adjusted EBITDA generation to be back end loaded towards the second half of the year. We expect free cash flow, before changes in working capital, to continue to be positive in 2024 and thereafter. To conclude this slide, we reconfirm our long-term target of group adjusted EBITDA margin in excess of 5% of GTV. On slide eight, we share an update on the Grubhub Campus business within the North America segment. As you may know, Grubhub has a large campus ordering offering that is available at more than 300 colleges and universities across the U.S., reaching 4 million students. It is a full suite of tools for campuses to manage aspects of their on-campus dining programs, including POS systems, kitchen display systems, ordering kiosks, mobile ordering capabilities, bespoke payment integrations, and delivery via robots. While the role of Grubhub Campus has historically been included in our EBITDA and revenue figures, this hasn't been the case for orders and GTV. We will disclose this information starting from H1 2024. We will only disclose mobile orders, as they are similar to orders placed on the main Grubhub business. In 2023, students placed 37 million mobile orders, which generated EUR 341 million in GTV. The business now accounts for 18. 18% of orders in the North America segment in the first quarter of 2024, and we also expect Campus to continue to be a fast-growing part of the business. As a result, it is expected to become a more significant part of the North America segment over time. In addition, Grubhub Campus feeds, supports, strengthens the marketplace business and its network effects. For full transparency, the Campus numbers will also be broken out separately for the remainder of 2024. The seasonality of the Campus business is very different, since most students are not on campus during the summer, nor during other breaks throughout the school year, including winter break and spring break. In the appendix of this presentation, you will find some additional information to better understand the segment within Grubhub, and feel free to reach out to our investor relations team as well, if you would like more backgrounds. We'll continue with the wrap-up of this brief presentation on slide nine. We are excited that the U.K. and Ireland accelerated GTV growth to 11% or 7% in constant currency in the first quarter of 2024. We have continued momentum in GTV growth in Northern Europe. Our constant currency GTV growth, excluding North America, was 3% in the first quarter of 2024, within the 2024 guidance range of 2%-6% year-on-year. We reiterate our guidance, including adjusted EBITDA, of approximately EUR 450 million and positive free cash flow before changing working capital in 2024. To conclude, we are looking forward to the rest of the year. With that, operator, I would like to open the call for questions. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question or make a contribution on today's call, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star two. We'll take the first question from Christopher Johnen from HSBC. Your line is open now. Thank you. Yes. Hi, good morning, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. I would like to ask about the New York fee cap situation. So I'm just curious, how likely is it that we will get a decision from the judge on the lawsuit? Is that likely around the corner? 'Cause, I mean, I'm just curious, the reason why I'm asking is, are the settlement talks. I understand that there could be quite substantial damages awarded if this lawsuit proceeds. I think the language, I don't know, sometime last year was already quite heavy. You know, he called it unconstitutional. So I'm just curious, you know, is that making the near-term timing on the decision on the fee caps more likely? How impactful could, you know, damage awards be if everything were to proceed? Thank you. Thank you very much. Well, first of all, I did not call it unconstitutional. That was the judge. But to continue, to answer your question, first off, we are on our way to run Grubhub Free Cash Flow breakeven, excluding any fee cap relief. The fee caps, there's an ongoing legislative process in the New York City Council that we are supportive of and that we're hopeful of that it will resolve the situation. We also get closer to verdicts from the courts, and yes, they do include damages, but I think I've said that before, we'd rather get rid of these fee caps sooner than later. So our preference would always be to arrange this with the New York City Council in an amicable fashion. Thank you. Thanks. We'll take the next question from Silvia Cuneo from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open now. Thanks, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. My one question is on, the constant currency GTV growth, excluding North America. That was 3% in Q1 within the guidance range. So the question is, if you could please share some thoughts about what could be the drivers leading you to the low end of that range or the high end of that range over the coming quarters? And related to that, if you could share some thoughts on the typical seasonality of next quarters. Thank you. Thanks for the question, Silvia. Well, first off, we're obviously quite pleased that we are in that range. That is going to be very helpful going forward. There's a couple of things that we've spoken about that we believe will increase our growth rate. So if you ask us, how do we get to the high end of the range? Those will be the initiatives. So we have quite some work that we're doing in supply. We have added tremendous amounts of additional partners, whether it's in delivery for food, delivery for adjacencies, such as pet food in Germany, but also a lot of grocery stores that we're adding across Europe. So they should get us additional growth above basically the normal growth of our business. Then I think it's important to understand the underlying trends of our business. I've seen people make comparisons with the macroeconomic situation. We're a little bit immune to it, because the way we grow is by increasing our active user base, and in many countries, that number has by now surpassed again the COVID numbers, so I think that's very good news. It is the order frequency that is only a tad bit lighter than during the pandemic, but that should also bypass the pandemic era at some point if we add more supply. But it is also the return of customers in a specific month. So those three elements determine our growth, so obviously we'll try to get a positive result on all these three elements, and if you do so, then obviously your orders increase. Now, in food delivery, obviously, we have our cohorts, so we have very good line of sight of the growth. That is a lot harder with adjacencies, because we don't know whether we're going to be able to sign up a large grocery chain. We try, and we talk to them for long times, and we sign them up. But that obviously is a big swing factor in many countries. There's a big, you know, this could be a couple of hundreds of thousands of orders that you would gain by adding a large grocery chain, so it's actually quite a significant swing factor. If you ask me, what will determine where you're going to end up? It's exactly, exactly that. Understood. Thank you. We'll take now the next question from Marc Hesselink from ING. Your line is open now. Yes, thank you. Actually, a bit of a follow-up of the previous question. If you look at the orders, 1Q 2024 versus 4Q 2023, excluding North America, so 7 million lower quarter-on-quarter, there's obviously some seasonality in there. But if you... especially the things you just mentioned, like the order frequency and the active client base, and being relatively immune to macro, what is that 7 million indicating? Is that just the seasonality or you still need to work through a little bit of the COVID impact? No, I think that's actually quite normal if you compare years, let's say, before the pandemic, because obviously during the pandemic, there were very different patterns. But if you look at the years before the pandemic, you'll see that it's actually quite normal for these segments, for that to happen. And I guess there might also sometimes be, you know, a holiday such as Easter, you know, being in Q1 and then in Q2, and that has an impact. Or for instance, on which day Easter would be in a certain quarter as well. But I think this is, if you go back to our historics, you would see a similar pattern. Okay, thanks. We'll take now the next question from Andrew Gwynn from BNP Paribas. Your line is open now. Hi, yeah, a similar line of questioning, unfortunately, but obviously, there's a sense of real wage recovery within Europe. I'm surprised, really, to hear you say that you don't think there's a sort of economic benefit to come through. You think there's a premium paid for convenience. So just help us understand that a little bit more, and is there anything within the data, maybe some shifts in mix, to give you a little bit more confidence that the quality of volume has perhaps improved? Thank you. Yeah, look, when I say that, I mean that our growth is mostly driven by our ability to add supply and our existing customer base. And let's say if the existing customer base has more to spend, then yes, we will notice that. I don't believe that the new customer number is going to move up and down tremendously as a result of, let's say, the macro environment. But the existing customer base, and we've seen this, to a very, very clear extent during the pandemic, is, of course, our most important swing factor in a normal environment. In the pandemic, it was clear that the situation was not normal, and you get different patterns, but that's the most important thing for us to influence. Therefore, it's actually quite rewarding for us to add inventory, to stimulate the growth of the existing, existing base. And it is this existing base that makes you relatively immune to the macro. It's not entirely immune, but it makes you relatively immune to the macro because you know, if you're in the pattern of ordering your food online, you're not going to not do that or move to a phone or something like that. So that's very predictable and stable behavior. Presumably then, there's nothing you'd sort of call out in the data so far from real wage recovery in that frequency point? No. Obviously, you see still an increasing ATV, so that's something that is a result of, you know, basically also wages going up, then obviously also the cost of the food goes up, because the restaurants will increase their price. So we do see that. But I've talked about this before, we usually lag inflation, because restaurants are not, you know, planning the inflation number. They just look at what their income is on a monthly basis, so it's a very different sort of inflation that we see in our numbers. But that's the most prevalent impact that we see. It's actually the ATV going up, which is a benefit, because obviously we charge commission. Very clear. Thank you so much! Thank you. We'll take now our next question from Lisa Yang, from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open now. Yes. Hi, good morning. I'm just curious if you could elaborate on the key drivers behind the U.K. GTV growth, especially the order growth, which turned positive. I mean, to what extent is you know related to the growth initiatives, like grocery or the overall market, consumer behavior sort of improving? And I'm also curious, like, you know, why Northern Europe is lagging U.K.? I think, you know, in previous quarters, I think both segments were growing more or less in line. So yeah, just curious, like, you know, why it's lagging, do you continue to see U.K. outperforming Northern Europe for the rest of the year? Thank you. Thank you. I will take the last part of your question. I'll leave the U.K. and Ireland to Andrew. Actually, Northern Europe, in terms of user base, is doing extremely well. I think the growth difference between the two, because they are very similar, is mostly the success in grocery that we've seen in the U.K., but that's, Andrew will talk about. Yeah, I think, you know, you've hopefully seen over time now that there's been a quite deliberate and methodical approach to what we've been trying to do in the U.K. The supply, what we call the restaurant supply, the choice and overall proposition to customers, has really step changed over the last year or so. That obviously includes grocery, which is a tailwind, that's primarily geared, at the moment, towards existing customers, but over time, will also attract, you know, new customers to the platform. We talked at length about the improvements in our logistics network in the U.K. also. That improvement has realized improvement in margin, while at the same time we've been able to reinvest into price and marketing at healthy levels. So overall, I think the momentum has been building for a number of quarters now. And, you know, it's obviously very pleasing to see that now translate from, you know, healthy GTV growth to order growth as well. Okay, thank you. We'll take now the next question from Wim Gille from ABN AMRO. Your line is open now. Yes. Hi, good morning. I've got a question on the share buyback. Can you give us a bit of a feeling on what portion of the shares that you buy under the current share buybacks are earmarked for share-based comp and equity plans? And what portion do you expect to cancel? When do you expect to take that decision? And what are your thoughts around a potential new share buyback in the remainder of 2024? Thanks. Yeah, thanks for the question. Obviously, we have an ongoing buyback program. The vast majority of those shares are in our possession still. And if you look at, for instance, what part of that you're going to use going forward, it obviously depends on whether you're going to extend the buyback program, and for what period of time you want to be able to cover the share base comp. So I think that's a question that we can't answer now. We can possibly answer that question after the current buyback concludes. Any thoughts around the new share buyback after this one is finished? I think that also depends on our ability to generate free cash flow. Obviously, we're very enthusiastic about the momentum that we've built and the visibility on the free cash flow. But still, these things need to happen, right? We can obviously have our plan in place, and we can try to outperform our plan, et cetera, but we need to hit these milestones, because we are a conservative business, and we want to run the business to the best ability that we can. Obviously, being a large shareholder, I would sometimes prefer these returns of capital as well. I think in that sense, I'm aligned with other shareholders. Thanks. We'll take now the next question from William Woods from Bernstein. Your line is open now. Good morning. I'd just like to understand the drivers behind the ATV growth in a bit more detail. Could you give some breakdown of how much of that is caused by that lagging inflation versus, say, mix or other elements that you're introducing into the business? And then secondly, linked to that, kind of how much could we expect that to continue, given that lag in inflation? Should we expect continued ATV growth for the next three to six months? Thanks. That's a very complicated question to answer. Now, first of all, most of what we see in ATV is out of our control, because it's the restaurants and the partners increasing these prices. I don't think we have material mix shifts in our business between- Grocery is a little bit higher, but- Yeah ... small overall. Indeed, grocery is a little bit higher, so it's, you know, if that becomes larger, it could have a potential positive impact. And if I try to answer your question, I think it is likely that we'll see increases of the ATV in the next six months, if that's the term that you're looking for. Because there's still quite some inflation in Europe, in the U.K., and as I said, it, you know, our restaurants lag the inflation always. They never plan ahead, which is good for the consumer, I suppose, but not the same for the restaurant. Excellent. Thank you very much. We'll take now the next question from, can I say, Jo Barnet-Lamb from UBS. Your line is open now. Hi there. It's actually Jo Barnet-Lamb. I'm sorry about that. Yeah, one question from me. So you announced the closure of New Zealand. You obviously constantly evaluate different territories' sort of viability and have taken action previously. Could you just talk about what sort of changed in New Zealand to cause you to close it? And what would you need to see in other territories to sort of make similar decisions? I guess related to that, obviously, you, you've kept Australia open, so a bit of a comment around sort of the Australian market as well would be great. Thank you very much. Thank you. Yeah, we do constantly evaluate where we are in certain markets. New Zealand for us was a small market in which we were not one of the leading players. New Zealand, obviously, as you would understand, is also a very small market in terms of just overall size of the market and in terms of population. It's not a market in which we believed making more investments, because essentially, that's the business case that you would have to make. Would make sense, which is why we closed it, closed it down, which is, of course, a painful decision for the local staff. Australia is a bit of a different matter. We're actually quite large in Australia, one of the larger players in the country. I said before that I don't think Australia sustains three players. You know, the Australian market as such is probably less interesting than the Dutch market in terms of profitability. Also, because of course the logistics share in Australia is much higher than it is in Holland. And therefore you know your investment horizon, and that applies for all players actually in Australia, not only for us, is a lot longer. And then the question is of course if you're willing to deploy that capital. Now that could lead to consolidation. It could lead to disposals. It could also in some countries lead to less investments. You know a very clear segment in which we invest less money is for instance Southern Europe. And, you know, you're going to say, "Yeah, but it's, you know, it's, it's growing less or it's shrinking." Yeah, well, because of us decreasing investments in, in those territories, because we don't believe that the horizon is near there in, in terms of profitability. That's a very different story, for instance, in the U.K. or in Europe, where you're, you're already making quite some money and where you have, you know, very clear sight of, you know, increasing those, those profits in all these markets. So, you know, we have to look on a per country basis, whether it is us that is supposed to be owning those, those countries, and whether our investment levels make, make sense, and that's something that we're doing constantly. That's really helpful, yeah, so thank you. I guess building off that, if it's okay, you know, are there other markets? I don't expect you to name them because obviously you have employees in those markets, but are there other markets where in your reevaluation, you know, they are getting close to your view, where they should be closed? Or do you think that sort of, that there is nothing in the portfolio that is, that is sort of, close to the line, if you like? Well, most markets are actually quite large, so I think closing would not be your first option obviously, it would be consolidation. And obviously, you know, we can rank the countries in terms of profitability or future profitability, and I guess you can do the same. So I think that's always the consideration. And in some markets, obviously, there's other variables. You know, Spain, for me, is a very clear example in which, you know, we have a situation in which we abide by the law and others don't. And there's a lot of scrutiny on these other players. So that whole market situation in Spain might change from one day to another. That's also something that you would have to take into account when evaluating your options. So again, I'm not going to name any, any, any countries here, but our obvious examples in the business are countries such as Holland, Switzerland, Germany, the U.K., that are, you know, the best examples of how to run a food delivery business. And obviously, all the other countries need to look like that. And if they don't, or there's no trajectory towards that, we need to take a decision. Wonderful. Thank you very much. Cheers. Thank you. We'll take now the next question from Bradley Hughes, from Shore Capital. Your line is open now. Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. If I could just quickly tag one on from what Lisa asked earlier. Wondering how much of the order growth in Q1, particularly in the U.K. and Northern Europe, has sort of been down to the expansion of the delivery radius? And then, and then secondly, you know, on the building blocks, you guys have set out supply being one. Thinking about kind of restaurant insolvencies having been very high, particularly in independents, which are over-indexed in, when do you kind of feel this capacity may return? And do you see it as sort of a meaningful tailwind for you in 2024, 2025? Thanks. Sorry, could you repeat the last question? Because that was a bit unclear to me. Sorry, it's in relation to restaurant insolvencies, particularly in independents. You kind of spoke earlier to- Oh. - adding more suppliers being one of the key building blocks in getting to sort of- Yeah ... your guidance range. I'm trying to think about when you're thinking that capacity, so when restaurants come back and restaurant reopening, and do you see it sort of as a meaningful tailwind in 2024 or perhaps more 2025? Yeah, well, obviously we always supply the net number, so you know, it has been... In for a food delivery business, you're constantly, you have to work very hard to just stay stable, because there's a lot of insolvencies in the restaurant sector. Unfortunately, that's just the way that business operates or their business model operates. So for us, it's a bit of a given, and our challenge is obviously to have a very high net addition. Because in the end, also, the most successful restaurants, obviously, that we have on our, on our business, that, that, that drive our business, are the ones that usually don't go bankrupt. So it's actually a self-cleansing mechanism for restaurants to not make it. It's not something we really look at. We just look at the net addition that, you know, the more restaurants, the higher the order frequency, the more orders we do. So that's basically our- Our health barometers, I guess, for Q1 in terms of, have we seen, you know, good supply growth across the segments in the first quarter? The answer is yes, on both a gross and a net basis. That's right. And then to your first question around the delivery radius, I'm actually surprised you picked that one up. It's pretty detailed, so congratulations on that one. We've been working very hard to cover more territory across continental Europe, whether that's Holland or Switzerland or Germany or wherever in Northern Europe. As you know, the delivery model in continental Europe is very costly because of the high wage costs and, you know, depending on where you are, it gets more complicated. Germany is a very notorious country to be running a logistical network in, because you have all the additional costs that don't exist in other countries. But in any event, we focus a lot on increasing our coverage, and part of that is indeed changing the delivery radius with, for instance, cars instead of bikes. Something that we have done, but also sometimes opening new places in countries, new cities, as well. So actually, we have meaningfully increased the coverage. I think Jörg might have something to say about that as well. Yeah, so there's a bit of difference in the U.K. versus Europe, like Jitse was alluding to. You know, in the U.K., we run the freelance model, and the coverage is quite some higher already like it is in Europe. So the relative increase in coverage is smaller, and therefore the impact, the additional impact on the business in the U.K. is smaller than what we have still to come in Europe. Because the absolute, the coverage of the population is at a smaller percentage, but the relative increase is larger. So, therefore, actually you have impact on both regions in Europe and in the U.K. But, in Europe, the potential of expanding the logistical network and getting to a higher population coverage is still larger. Really detailed. Thanks very much, guys. Thank you. We currently have no more questions coming through. As a final reminder, you can press star one now to ask a question. Thank you very much. I would like to round off this analyst and investor call by thanking you for participating and your questions. Should you have any additional questions or remarks, please reach out to our investor relations team. Thank you very much. Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.
Loading workspace