Good morning, and welcome to today's presentation of Gram Car Carriers third quarter 2022 results. My name is Georg Whist, and I'm the CEO of Gram Car Carriers. Joining me today from Singapore is our CFO, Gunnar Koløen. Today we'll take you through an update on our Q3 performance and recent market and corporate developments. We are pleased to see recent new charter contracts at higher day rates reflected in higher revenues and earnings. It is also reflected in increased returns to our shareholders as we propose a third consecutive quarterly dividend since listing on Euronext Growth in January this year. We're making good progress on execution on our strategy. I would like to share some of the highlights of that with you today. Gram Car Carriers is the world's third largest car carrier tonnage provider. We listed on Euronext Growth with a clear strategy of capturing the upside in the car carrier market and pay dividends. Dividends of $0.11 per share for Q3 is up from $0.09 for Q2, and is in line with our policy. We operate three vessel sizes, the Panamaxes, the mid-sizes, and the distribution vessels. Daily earnings increased for all sizes in Q3. We have signed several new contracts, successfully capturing the strong market. We're now sold out for capacity for 2022. We have 14% open days for 2023, and 38% for 2024. This week we also announced the acquisition of Viking Paglia. She's earnings per share accretive and is supportive of increased dividends. We continue to see strong demand for vehicle transfers and a shortage of vessel capacity. This has led to record rates for contracts of all durations. I'll revert more to that later in the presentation. In sum, we see a strong market which is reflected in improved key operational and financial figures. Our Q3 2023 revenue was $31.5 million, up from $27.7 million in Q2. EBITDA was $18.8 million, up from $16.2 million in Q2. This reflects improved time charter earnings across all segments and continued good cost control. Higher interest rates have unfortunately increased, which brings our time charter break even slightly up. Net income of $6.5 million versus $5.3 million in Q2, of which we propose to return 50% to our shareholders. We have booked new contracts worth $294 million in Q3. The revenue backlog increased to $563 million at the end of the third quarter. We are delivering on our clear dividend policy. A Q3 dividend of $0.11 per share is up 18% from Q2. The extraordinary general meeting will be hosted on Tuesday next week on the 8th of November to approve this dividend. We expect earnings and dividend to continue to increase going forward. Gram Car Carriers, we are a strong industry name, and we have 40 years experience in the car carrier industry. We have extensive experience from chartering vessels to all major global operators and key regional operators worldwide. We are headquartered here in Oslo, and together with our Singapore office, we manage a modern fleet of car carriers with an average age of about 10 years. We listed on Euronext Growth in January this year, and we are preparing for an uplisting later in 2022. The car industry is one of the world's largest industries, and we are an integral part of their logistic chain. Gram Car Carriers is an important part of the value chain. We charter our vessels to the operators who in turn sits on volume contracts with the manufacturers. Take Glovis, for instance. They operate about 90 vessels and charter in about two-thirds of that tonnage from tonnage provider like us. NYK, MOL, K Line, they operate each about 100 vessels. They own about two-thirds of that themselves. They charter in one-third. So in total, about 100 ships. Wallenius Wilhelmsen on the other hand, they charter in only about 10% of their needs. Gram Car Carriers, we are a preferred partner who deliver a consistently high-quality service, which means all stringent quality measures set by the car manufacturers. We have three main types of vessels. We have the distribution vessels serving regional markets like Northern Europe and Caribbean. We have the midsize vessels serving north-south trade lanes and intra-continent trades. We have the Panamax vessels serving east-west trade lanes crossing canals and major oceans. We operate on commercial management four newbuildings on behalf of global auto carriers and two on behalf of an NRP-led KS. In Q3, SFL Corp took back management of their two vessels, and actually NRP just announced that they have sold one of their ships. Earlier this week we made an exciting announcement of the acquisition of Viking Paglia at an attractive price from our largest shareholder. We plan to finance the deal with debt and new equity, no requirement to draw on our liquidity reserves. The transaction is done at arm's length terms and are accretive on an earnings per share basis. It also adds $70 million backlog and increases our dividend capacity. Now I'd like to hand over to Gunnar for an update on operations and finance. Thank you, Georg. The positive momentum continues into Q3 and the second half of the year. It's been a busy quarter with several fixtures also after the quarter end. These new contracts will continue to translate into higher earnings in coming quarters. The average charter rate across the fleet was just shy of $20,000 during the Q3, up another $2,200 from Q2. The higher rates are a function of higher day rates for all vessels. The increase has so far mainly been driven by the mid-size vessels, but we now get more contribution from the distribution vessels and the Panamaxes. The latter has finally started to move up following the extension of the Viking Adventure. For Viking Adventure, we will receive a lump sum payment from the charter in Q4 2022, and the rate is adjusted upwards starting from end September when the extension was agreed, and is then a blend of the old and the new rate. You may refer to page four in the Q3 interim report for further details on this. All charter revenues are recognized on a straight-line basis in accordance with IFRS, irrespective of payment structure. Vessel operating expenses are slightly higher in Q3, mainly due to increased crew change activity. This is, as expected, following low activity during the first half of the year due to the Ukraine situation. We expect to see a minor increase in vessel operating expenses from start of 2023 due to inflation and cost related to supporting our Ukrainian crew. Average cash break-even rate has come up from $15,000 last quarter to $15,800 on higher interest rates. The fleet was fully operational in Q3, with the exception of Viking Emerald, which ran through its second SPS during the quarter. Let's move on to the contract overview. High fixing activity in Q3 with Viking Constanza, Diamond, Ocean, Adventure and Coral being fixed. All included in the $563 million backlog as at end of Q3. Since the end of the third quarter, we have also announced fixtures for Viking Destiny and Höegh Caribia, together adding another $143 million in additional revenue backlog. There are now no open days for 2022 and only a few days open in 2023. With the exception of Viking Bravery, it's mostly distribution vessels that come open in 2023. Viking Queen is open towards the end of the year. In the contract we have with our customers, there's usually a redelivery window of ±30-60 days. In a strong market like we are in now, charters tend to max out the period, so there is a possibility that Viking Queen will only come open towards the end of 2023. We experienced continued strong demand for all open tonnage, and as we have anticipated, there is growing interest for the distribution vessels. We expect to announce further contracts reflecting the strong market fundamentals in the coming weeks and months. Naturally, the pace will slow down due to a majority of the fleet now being fixed on long duration charters. I'll move to the next slide, showing the backlog distribution. Backlog has increased significantly from second quarter as it is up from $270 million- $560 million. On the right here, you can see how we expect the backlog revenue recognition distributed over the years. We have $144 million fixed in 2022, 2023, and a slightly lower figure in 2024, where we have a bit more open days. We have $260 million revenue to be recognized 2025 onwards. Contracts entered into after the quarter end are not included in this graph. We'll move on to summarize the key figures. Revenue and earnings reflect strong operations and a good cost control. Net income of $6. 5 million for the quarter, up from $5.3 million in Q2. As stated earlier and consistent with our policy, the board has proposed to pay 50% of net income as dividend, also for Q3. With expectations of increased earnings and a strong cash flow in coming quarters as vessels start on the new charters with higher rates, we expect to see quarterly dividends increase. With that, I will hand it back to Georg. Thank you very much. Thank you, Gunnar. We continue to see steady improvement in charter rates at record levels. Of the 180 vessels owned by the tonnage providers, only one is open for the recontracting the rest of this year. Vessels open for 2023 is rapidly decreasing. There are 34 ships open at end of Q3. When we look at the same number end of Q2, it stood at 47. Expectation for global auto sales have been stable in Q3, following a downward revision earlier in the year. There is still economic uncertainty due to lower growth expectations, rising interest rates, inflation, weaker consumer confidence in the U.S. and Europe, and a continued war in Ukraine. Despite this, we expect new car sales to be back at pre-COVID levels in 2024. Auto manufacturers continue to prioritize their export models, so the ratio of sales versus cars transported by sea is up. U.S. inventories remain at a record low of 10 days inventory. We see the same trend in Europe and in Asia. China's export continue to grow, and record high and heavy volumes give a tight market for car carriers. Summing up, there is low inventories, continued strong demand outlook combined with inventory rebuild set us up for a prolonged firm market. China's strong export trend continues, with China as the second largest exporters of cars in the world. 2.2 million Chinese vehicles were shipped year-to-date end of September, up 52% year-on-year according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. More than 20% of all cars exported from China are electric vehicles. EV sales are growing exponentially, and we're well on the way to meet forecasters' prediction of a 50% EV share of all vehicle sales by 2030. China is expanding its position as a global EV powerhouse. This will lead to greater ton-mile demand. China has some key advantages. They have modern production facilities, modern port infrastructure, well-established auto parts supply chains, including access to electric batteries. They have a large, skilled, and cost-efficient workforce, which gives them a competitive advantage. Western car manufacturers establishing EV production lines in China like Tesla, Volvo, BMW, et cetera, are all reporting satisfactory production from China. Tesla is actually now sending Chinese workers to the U.S. assembly plants to exchange production methodology. High and heavy demand remains strong. Volumes are at all-time high levels. All the main sectors, agriculture, mining, and construction, are experiencing high demand. This is high-paying cargo which lifts demand for car carriers. The order book is still favorable and predictable. Negative net fleet growth since 2014 and year to date, only four vessels are delivered from yards. The order book has increased due to the strong market, but is still only at the historic average and remains below the replacement needs, except for 2025. The order book is also to note, it also stretches over a period of six years all the way up to 2028. The yards are fully booked through 2025, with decreasing open capacity for 2026 and 2027. There's also impending scrapping potential given the fleet age profile. New emission regulations to reduce effective supply as they go, global fleet slows. We have calculated about a 5% effect, and it's starting early next year. We are investing in reducing the footprint of our fleet. You can see here the Viking Constanza just started its biofuel trial as the second Gram Car Carriers vessel going on to biofuels. This reduces carbon emissions of up to 90%. We are cooperating with Det Norske Veritas on measures and in the process of making specific decarbonization plans for each vessel in our fleet. We see a clear trend towards longer durations for new contracts. You have the blue color showing the shorter contracts, you have the yellows on mid-range contracts, and the reds are their long-term contracts. You see, as the rates are moving up, the durations of the contracts have also become longer. In September, 80% of charter durations for five years or longer. The operators are fixing longer to cover their contracts and forecast from the car manufacturers. In 2023, there is now only about 34 vessels coming open for recontracting. Why invest in Gram Car Carriers? We believe it's a unique investment opportunity to invest in a leading car carrier tonnage provider. It's highly attractive market fundamentals supportive of long-term upcycle. We have successfully captured the strong market, and we now have 14% open next year, 30% in 2024. We are steadily improving earnings with fleet rolling over for new contracts with further upside potential. We are delivering on our commitment of distributing minimum 50% of earnings per share through quarterly dividends. We are on track for the planned transfer to the Oslo Stock Exchange main market before year-end. With that, we are ready for a Q&A session. Thank you very much for the presentation, Georg and Gunnar from Singapore. My name is August, and I'll be moderating this session. I'm a shipping analyst here at Pareto. Just a reminder to everyone, we have a chat function in the event calendar here. You can post your questions, and I will read them out loud as we go. We've had a few questions already come in, starting with a question about the dividend. Have you approached banks to lift the 50% max dividend covenant? And if not, do you plan on doing this? Yeah. We have an active dialogue with our banks, and of course they are, as our investors, very pleased to see the development of the company with a contract backlog. We are in discussions on the dividend restriction and we will report back once we have concluded on something with the lenders. We do expect that to be probably early next year. Okay. One that's probably for Gunnar. Viking Destiny is refinanced with a profit of $8 million. Is there more vessel refinancings that can be done? Yeah. With the contract coverage now, it's natural that we start looking at this and opportunities are opening up. I mean, we have now a backlog of $700 million on long charters. I think this is something we definitely will look into going forward to make sure that we optimize our capital structure and cost of capital. Thank you. There's one about a bit more on the vessel acquisition. Will acquiring more vessels through share issues and about 80% debt limit your ability to increase the dividend payout ratio or bank's willingness to lift the 50% max covenant? What are your thoughts on this? I think we will, as we have done now with the acquisition of Paglia, stick to a very disciplined methodology. We will only buy vessels if this is accretive growth and adds to the dividend distributions. The lenders are very comfortable. We are buying, for instance, the Paglia; we're buying $70 million of revenue backlog versus a loan tranche of about $40 million. They are not concerned about that at all. It will not, as far as I can tell, limit our dividend paying. We will not do a deal or take up debt that will hamper the dividends. That is part of the analysis before we enter into transactions. Okay. Very good. There's a few on the Panamax's coming open next year. I'll just kind of summarize. You've done now two for five years at 60 and 65. Is there potential for this to reach 70 or 75 in the next year? If you can give any color on that. Also kind of how you're thinking about balancing short-term, long-term contracts. No, absolutely. I think we're going to stick to our plan and the liquidity of this market is predominant in the five-year. There has been, you know, one or two shorter, very high-end, but high rates. We will balance that. We will look at, you know, what can we obtain on a five-year and what can we obtain on a one-year. So far we find it more attractive to do the five-year at, let's say 65, which we've already done. That is an EBITDA backlog of $103 million. You need quite a high rate to come to something similar. I think realistically we will be looking at more than one year. Yeah. Looking into the future it's always difficult. If we try to go back one year and look at where we are today, I think at a certain level, I'm sure the levels will start leveling somewhat up. Whether we will see 70 or not, it, I wouldn't like to guesstimate on that. It's, yeah, it's to predict the future is always difficult. It is. That's fair for sure. There is a few on a bit on the container side of things. Do you think some of the planned container ship orders can be converted into car carriers? I think that is quite unrealistic and it gets a bit technical, this answer bit. The way that container ships are built, they are built in mega blocks and same as tankers and bulkers. It's, in my mind, it's much more realistic that they will be converted into bulkers or tankers' orders. Car carriers are built with thin plate technology, which is a different way of building. Also there is 13 stories, so it takes a lot of space in the yard. Typically, the container ships are built at yards which would build more bulkers than tankers. Can it happen? Well, technically or sort of in theory it could. Mm-hmm I think it's more realistic that they get converted into bulkers and tankers. Yeah. Sure. Another container question. The market for container ships seems to be collapsing due to the boom in newbuilding deliveries, and the rates will probably reach variable cost in the near future. Can we, in this environment, see container ships take market share in the PCC market? Second part of the question, ZIM could be at risk of going bankrupt in this environment, and you have ZIM as a counterpart. What is the exposure to ZIM, and what will be the effect of a potential ZIM default? Complicated answer, but assume that. Yeah. I'll take the last one first because it's quite simple. We have one ship to ZIM, and the rate is reasonable. It's not a record rate. They have other ships on higher charter rates. I also think ZIM has a good model. They have done well, so not too concerned, quite honestly on that account. Yeah. When it comes to the question about, you know, can container eat into the cargo of the car carriers, I think we've seen some cars, especially used cars, going into containers from Japan to Middle East. That we have historically seen. New cars, there is too much damage, and you need to change the entire logistics system at the car manufacturers. I don't think that is particularly likely. Yes, the container market has come down, but it needs to come down a lot more before it gets even economical to do it. Then we're not even talking about damage and the logistics and all the others. Big volumes, I struggle to see that happening. Okay. There's two questions here, maybe for Gunnar. Now I'm not sure. They're asking about your planned initiatives to reduce emissions going forward and the expected CapEx for this over the next few years. Yeah. As we have alluded to or as we have explained in our presentation, we are now making specific decarbonization plans for all our vessels and working with our charters because it's the charter's obligation to keep the vessels trading at sea or better because a lot of the trading patterns actually dictate how the CII comes out. But we have always been proactive, you know, working with our customers. We are now doing biofuel on one vessel. We are all looking into other energy-saving devices together with our customers to bring down the environmental impact of our vessels. Yeah. There's a second part there about if you need to do sort of more larger modifications. How is the availability of yard capacity? Well, I think the yard capacity is there. We have docked a lot of ships this year as some of you know. I don't think that is going to be the problem. There are various things we can do on paints and yeah, we had the whole list up. I think we will. I don't see a big issue in the yard capacity, no, I don't do that. Okay. There's a specific question on kind of the same thing, but for the Viking Paglia vessel. If you could provide some info regarding current or potential new eco features for that one. Yeah. Paglia is a sister ship of Passama, which we already own, so they are sisters. We will look at that in conjunction, and we mapped out, you know, the various things we can do on that vessel series. They are also trading predominantly in the same trading pattern from in Asia between Japan and Australia and Middle East and South America. We look at that, you know, as a joint, more as a sister project. Mm. Look at various things we can do there. We have a few more questions here, but just a reminder, if you want to ask a question, you can use the chat function on the InvitePeople calendar here. We can take this one. "The Norwegian operators are hesitant to commit to long-term charters at current rates and have their own newbuilding programs when it comes to fleet renewal. It is also the case for other operators, and do you expect operators to increasingly rely on their own tonnage through new builds instead of long-term charters going forward? Well, I think there's one operator in Norway who has a new building program, and that's Höegh. Wallenius Wilhelmsen, as far as I know, don't have any new building program yet. We chartered a ship we announced early this week for three years to Höegh, so at least they were willing to do three years. But as we have explained before, I think the big customer base for us is really in Asia. It's about the Glovis. It's about the Japanese and also to EUKOR, which obviously is part of Wallenius Wilhelmsen. I think we will see more of them taking. They like that model of owning some, chartering some, making sure they have the flexibility, you know, as they build and roll over their contract basis. I don't see any change in that. What is new now is obviously the Chinese. We are Mm-hmm which is having a lot of growth, and I fully expect the Chinese to build up their own fleets both by owning but also by chartering. In our charter, we have one ship on charter to Anji Logistics, which is part of SAIC Motor. I fully expect the Chinese to come also up and do a mix of both owned and chartered vessels because that's the most efficient way for them to come up to a decent scale, which they clearly have their own ambition. I mean, they're now number two in the world on exports, and I think they will be soon number one and at the moment, they control 30 ships and they have to control 200-300 when you have an export volume like that, so. True. I think, I don't see that as a threat, no. Okay. There's a question here: what will your dividend potential be in 2024? In 2024? To guide on how much money we'll make in 2024, I think we shouldn't do that. I think most of you can calculate quite easily with some cost assumptions how it's going to look with the contract backlog we have. I think we've been on the exchange now since January. We're uplisting later this year. We kept our promise of 50% and let's see. Now, let's stabilize it, get a couple of more ships done, and then we can start thinking about next year and 2024 when it comes to increasing dividend policy. Yeah. Makes sense. We have one last question here, unless anything else pops up in the near future. It's a very specific one. What WACC are you using when you calculate NPV for the Paglia acquisition? To communicate an estimate for IRR will be better than to say that it will be EPS accretive. If you put a conservative estimate for value of Paglia in 2028, what kind of IRR can we expect? A rather specific one there. Yeah, yeah. if you have any thoughts. No, of course, we have run those numbers. I think it depends a bit. I think you know, Paglia had a very nice long charter, so obviously the risk is a lot less. The way we thought about that is, it has a 5.5-year remaining charter. Around 8%-10% WACC is what we are using. Looking at conservative historic average residuals, and then looking at payback, looking at how quickly can we pay back this investment. The charter which is currently on pays back the ship within the charter period. Mm. That's another consideration. There is, there's multiple facets, but it has to be earnings per share accretive. We saw one of the analysts, and we also do the same, we look at what leverage is it neutral towards what we have on our own hands. This was about 50% leverage, which we look at very, very conservatively. You know, couple of stars, looking at a couple of checkpoints and for the Paglia deal, it checked all the boxes and it is accretive to EPS. Hence we thought it was a great deal and the board agreed, and hence we booked it. One more question came in here, regarding kind of the same thing, if you will be looking to acquire more vessels and in particular from Laeisz, your largest shareholder. Of course, you know, he has another four ships. If we can agree on terms that stay accretive, then we will have those discussions. I think we do this in a very diligent manner, and we took a fairness opinion on it. It's very natural to obviously think about those vessels. People should not be surprised if this happened and but it has to be at accretive numbers. Of course. Okay. Very good. We got through everything. Thank you very much to Georg and Gunnar. We will see you in about three months' time for the Q4 numbers, I guess. Absolutely. Thank you everyone for listening.
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