Hello, welcome to this Q4 presentation of Hafnia. My name is Tue Østergaard, I'm with HC Andersen, I'll be today's moderator. I'd like to welcome you, Mikael Skov, CEO of Hafnia, for this presentation. We'll have around 30 minutes, I hope you have a lot of questions. Please put them in the chat, then I'll make sure that they are put through. Market cap today is $3.7 billion, up 30% this year, obviously a lot of things happening within Hafnia and the world. I look forward to having this presentation with you, Mikael. Welcome. Thank you. As always, we'll start with a very brief introduction, then go into the industry dynamics. Then, of course, we'll also today discuss consolidation and in the end. Please let me know if you have any questions. Mikael, I'll take control of the slides, but please go ahead. Over to you. Thank you so much. I think, just at least for the ones that are maybe not so familiar with Hafnia, that we are a product tanker company that owns and controls close to 200 vessels overall, including our own vessels, but also third-party vessels, and is into the transportation of refined oil products. Exactly. Basically, it's the core activity is exactly that. We have the majority of our earnings from the so-called spot market. Hafnia is very much a company which follows the trends in the oil market and the pricing and tries to maximize the earnings on the back of having most of the ships in the spot market. We do also, in addition to that, have some adjacent businesses, things that we've developed over the years. As I mentioned, we are managing other ship owners' vessels commercially. Smaller owners that don't have a massive organization can outsource the commercial management to us. On the back of that, we have roughly 80 vessels over the year that we operate on behalf of others. We also have procurement services that we do in terms of providing fuel for the ships that are sailing in a massive Bunker Alliance in a joint venture with Cargill called Seascale. That's another example of how consolidation can also happen in a more softer tone. It may not be financially interlinked, but corporations and alliances actually can give us quite a meaningful earning on the fees, but also a lot of economy of scale advantages on the actual operation. The final bit under the active management strategy, on the right side, the final graph, I think if you were to define the DNA of Hafnia, since we're only 15 years old, is that it has been a, and is, a culture of innovation, but also active management. We've been growing the business without taking a lot of risk, but more trying to find and capture the bottom of cycles where we've been investing and trying to harvest when we are on the top of the cycle. We've done a lot of M&A, combination of businesses, acquisitions of larger scale ships, all depending on really on whether we think it creates value or not. The fundamental philosophy is that try to be active when markets are low and things are cheap, and then as they are now, you try to harvest and you pay back through dividends, capital to the shareholders. Perfect. Let's go into, yeah, take a brief look at Q4, Mikael, please. Well, I mean, Q4 was the strongest quarter of last year, I think I can also say that those of you that listened to us the last time or previous time, we hadn't expected the quarter to be so strong. That I have to say. I mean, we saw there were certain trends, but not to the level that we've seen. The market has been extremely strong in Q4 and is continuing that strength even further now into Q1. I'm happy to say that we made $109.7 million in net profit, and decided to pay out again, 80% of that in dividend. Our dividend policy is linked to the net loan-to-value that the company has, and by the end of Q4, that was just below 25%. Between 20% and 30%, the payout of dividend is 80%. If it drops below 20%, then the payout will go up to 90%. That's the dividend policy we have at the moment. Yeah, I think we actually have a slide on that. This is the one, right? Yes, correct. Do you expect any changes to that? I mean, you did some share buybacks in Q1, but that will not be the normality. Is that correct? That's true. If we decide, and we do debate it, you know, every quarter, of course, but if we decide to do share buybacks, that will come on top of the regular dividend policy. It won't be a mixture of the two, it will be dividend, as always, so the policy is firm, and then on top, potential share buyback should we so decide. Yeah. Cool, if you have any questions to the this is the same. We've repeated this many times, that this is going to be the same for a long, long time. Yeah. Let's see if there's any questions to this, Mikael. Do you wanna put a few words on this outperforming peers slide? Well, I think obviously, we have a lot of performance metrics, and I think one should have, because there are many areas where you can, you know, you can either improve or change how you do things in terms of either cost side or revenue side in general. I think at the end of the day, you know, it all comes back to shareholder returns. I think that captures all of this, and I think that's why we, you know, what we like to, obviously, to show this, but also compare it to peers, that we know that we have the highest shareholder returns in the peer group. As you can see here on over three years, 75.3%. That's for us is one of the most important metrics to focus on. You know, I think particularly in shipping, which is very cyclical, and which means of course that when things are good as they are right now, cost has a tendency of creeping up. Yeah, I think for at least in Hafnia, what we've been trying to do is to have fixed costs at a lower level. We are definitely cost-wise in the low end, that includes even the D&A part. Then we'd rather pay a bit more extra out in terms of bonuses and other things when things are going well, so we can control it. The fixed cost base is low, and as you can see on the right side, when we compare our own total cost picture with the peers' average, there is a difference. I think in a very volatile shipping market, you know, the only thing you don't want to have is a very high cost base. When things go as you didn't expect, and they do that quite often, you wanna make sure that your cost base can carry you through even the low parts of the cycle without you coming into any trouble. Cool. Mike, going into the industry review and outlook, I think there's many details here. Why don't we start with a sort of more, what is your current broad outlook of the industry as you see it? Maybe we can kind of take it in two phases. If you start looking at, say, Q4 and Q1 that we're in now, there is no doubt that the very strong crude market in general has been pulling a lot of vessels from the clean, refined oil transportation into their market. In other words, we have lost a lot of ships that have gone into a the crude market transportation. That has kept the supply of ships down, so that is one thing on the supply side. Supply side has been almost zero growth. We'll get into that in a minute. Then of course, on the demand side, what we have seen is that because of the geopolitical uncertainty, you know, there are just a lot of changes in terms of ton-mile, a bit of inventory build as well. We've seen, for instance, that the situation with the Venezuelan crude has been super positive for the market in the U.S. Gulf area. Suddenly, oil that was restricted and kind of moving more on a sanctioned shadow of dark fleet suddenly got released and is now moving into the compliant fleet, which again, has put more demand into the regular market, and has made that market in the Caribbean, the U.S. Gulf area, super strong. I would say it's been a combination of those factors for sure, that, you know, the supply side is always very important in shipping to monitor, right. That has been a big factor. Yeah. Let's go into a few slides here. Yeah. One of the key things I said to you ahead of this meeting was that all the charts are pointing up. Yeah. It seems to me that we've broken out of some territory, and, we are now actually approaching the peers of 2022, 2023, where you had super-profits. Yeah. Maybe put a few words on that. Yeah, I think this illustrates very well, of course, that there is a lot of oil on the water, and that of course, means that ships are occupied. That is one thing. I think the, t here's no doubt that both the dirty petroleum market and the clean market is now having massive amounts of oil out for a few different reasons. There has definitely been an element of concern that you could get some kind of disruption of oil supply, particularly in the Middle East. I think we have to factor in a little bit that if export out of the Middle East has gone up a bit, to make sure that oil is out before potentially something should happen between the U.S. and Iran, and a closure potentially of the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Gulf. I also think in general, we've had very positive refinery margins in many parts of the world. Of course, that means that refiners are making money by refining crude oil into products, and that pushes a lot of refined products out as well. I think there is no doubt that when we look at the market now and the strength we're seeing here in Q1, it is definitely getting very close to what we saw back in the hey years of 2022, 2023, and even 2024. I think as a final comment to this, I think what I have mentioned before on these calls and which is still the case, is there are a couple of new ships coming into the market, particularly this year and next year. Yeah. When we look at the overall supply picture, all of the vessels that are currently sanctioned and out of the market, etc., if they all disappeared overnight, we would have a massively strong market for a very long time. That's the key question. I know we have a slide on that as well. Yeah, yeah. Mike, before we get into that, Iran, for example, let's say that something happens in Iran, how will that impact Hafnia? Well, it kind of depends on how that situation would develop in the Arabian Gulf. I mean, if you go back to the Iran-Iraq situation and Kuwait as well, you know, back in the days, even when there was a war going on, there were transportation of oil going in and out because they were happening in different areas of the Arabian Gulf. I think it's really all about if the Arabian Gulf gets closed down, that is one very extreme scenario, which basically means that no oil can come out of the area. Yeah. That, I think, in itself, would be. I mean, I mean, one thing, of course, is the oil price will go through the roof. It also means that we would probably have a different problem to deal with, which is that where would you get the replacement from? Yeah. In that case, I would say that that's a, I don't think that is a likely scenario at all. You know, it's something that is there. Otherwise, I think oil will finds its way. I mean, I think if you look at any war and any conflict that has been around the world, in some way, we always manage to find ways of getting the oil out of the water, either through convoy or protection of military. You know, this one is a very uncertain one for sure, right? Depends on how much it spreads out in the territory. Okay. You described the ton-mile situation, that it is actually going up quite a lot. Yeah Judging from this slide. What causes that? Well, it is really, I mean, it is a combination of a few things, right? It is what happens normally in a market is that when you start, as we've seen now, to have a crude oil market that is super strong and starts pulling ships one way, that obviously means that you have less ships in your own area. It also means that the demand for crude means that there is a demand for refinery. That means, again, you refine more, you put more cargo out on the water. A lot of what we're seeing here is there's more cargo on the water, but there's also inventory built both directly but also indirectly. We are seeing that that oil, obviously, whether it's on board a ship or it goes into storage terminal, it does reflect, of course, that inventories are building up a little bit. That's one side of it. The other side is that oil demand has surprised to the strong part. I mean, oil demand is showing more increased strength than what most people expected. Yeah. You know, we've come from a winter, and we are in a winter where the cold areas around, you know, the world has been pretty extreme. There's no doubt the seasonality is playing in as well here. We are in, you know, in Q4 and Q1, are the strongest quarters seasonally for transportation of refined oil. Yeah. Okay. Let's. I think there's many questions, so I'll try and limit myself here, but I find this one particularly interesting. I think it would be worthwhile for you to comment on this. The reason I find it interesting is that we have difficulties understanding this. What is sanctioned? What is gray market? You're actually referring to a number of 900 vessels here. Yeah Which must be a huge part of the fleet in total. If they suddenly change status from gray onto sanctioned, that must be a huge change in the market. It is, and I think the graph we're showing here is a big part of why markets are strong, is that we have lost a lot of ships that have gone into becoming either sanctioned, or trading in the so-called dark fleet. Which again, means that they're transporting oil, in closed, transportation patterns between countries like Russia, China, and India previously, and without proper insurance, without having to comply with international regulation. It's non-compliant trade when you are in the dark fleet. The same goes for sanctioned tonnage. Whenever you become a sanctioned tonnage, you're obviously restricted in how you can trade. Yes, there's two things about the sanctioned tonnage, that we need to be aware of. One is that they've gone up in numbers to massive numbers, close to 1,000. What we're also seeing is that a lot of the sanctioned/dark fleet is being used less and less. Okay. You start by assuming that you have a ship, and the ship does something different. What we're seeing now is that they're not being utilized as much as they did, for instance, a year ago. Indirectly, we are seeing ships disappearing from the compliant market into the non-compliant market, but they're not loading and carrying as much as a normal ship would do. That means a lot of oil that previously moved on sanctioned dark fleet tonnage is now being moved on compliant tonnage, which means more demand again for the normal market. Very interesting. I'm just going to skip to this one, because. [crosstalk] Yeah. That. Y ou have told me previously on these calls that, there will be a lot of supply coming in, but it's the net supply we need to discuss, because that's going to determine the market. Yeah. This actually shows that despite coming, a lot of supply coming in, the net supply is very low. Exactly. As you say, when we had these conversations before last year, I mean, everybody was focusing on, if you look at the right graph, the one that says percentage of clean deadweight development of an order book saying about 5% increase was the number. Everyone said, "5%, that is too much, 'cause demand is not increasing 5%, so the market has to go down." What people were missing was that you have an order book, you have a number, but in reality, when you look at the ships that are being delivered. I mean, we could see and so could others, that all these so-called LR2 ships, they appear as a product tanker, but for 80% of those ships actually ended up as carrying crude because they are, and this comes a bit technical, but an LR2 vessel is equal to an Aframax vessel carrying crude, so you can carry both. They delivered and left our market immediately. This is not a surprise, and it doesn't mean that they come back. It's just a function of ship owners that have a long track record carrying crude, would often choose an option to coat the Aframax vessel, so it appears on a list as a product tanker because it has a tank coating inside, as a product carrier. In theory, when it comes out, it will trade in a different market. So this is, as you say, I mean, we're down to below, way below 1% last year, which again means that we virtually had no increase of ships, but still a steady demand increase, for less ships, basically. Yeah. You expect this to continue because, of course, the order book is picking up, the rates are very strong and you will see more ordering. That's, I mean, at least for 2029, 2030. Yeah. Yeah. I think you will. You know, the thing is now, if you look at the order books in general, as you say, if we want to order a product tanker today, you know, it will be delivered in 2029. So far, the rush in new builds and for the shipyards have been to build gas carriers, container ships, smaller container ships, not so much tankers. If you ask a shipyard today, "What would you rather do?" They would not come up with building a product tanker or dry bulk carrier as their first choice, 'cause they don't make a lot of money on that. Right. There is a push towards other, which has been good for us. I think this year, the number is not gonna be equally low as what we saw last year, because the order book is slightly tweaked towards medium-range ships and not LR2 ships as last year. We'll still see transition from clean to dirty, but I don't think it will not be the same amount of LR2s as we saw last year. No. If you look at the industry, and for investors' purpose, I mean, the order book in comparison to containers or something else is still low. Yeah. Of all shipping markets, the product tank is actually one of the lowest order book. Am I right in that, or? Yeah, dry bulk is lower than product tankers. Okay. Okay. That's the only one. Okay. Yeah, there's many things we can add to, but I think in the instance of time, I think we can go into the consolidation thing. There will be people asking you about what's going on on consolidation. Of course, maybe you can sort of summarize, you have bought some shares in TORM, the way you see this. I know you don't want to go into details, fair enough, but maybe on a broader context, talk about consolidation as a theme. Yeah. Yes, as you say, yeah, so we bought 14% of TORM, and which, by the way, of course, for the moment, has been a very good investment. It's been like, if you like, another geared play into the product tanker market and given us more exposure, which, of course, comes out pretty well, in the current situation with the strong market. That's just on the investment side. I mean, our thoughts about consolidation, I think we have been pretty vocal, over the years, right? I think when you look at companies like Hafnia, you know, with market caps to say, on average, say, around $3 billion-$3.5 billion, and you, and you look at the pricing of companies of our size in the stock market versus the pricing of similar tanker companies that are twice the size, there is a significant difference. If we had double Hafnia, so to speak, you know, our view is that on a multiple expansion basis, this could mean as much as between, you know, $600 million, $700 million, $800 million, to $1 billion, really, in valuation, if you just adjust it for how you see other bigger companies trading in our similar market as us. Whether we like it or not, the shareholders in general have made a decision that having larger companies with larger free flow gives better liquidity, and if you're a good-performing company, they will give you a higher pricing in general. That's one of the key elements. You know, the synergies on the cost side, obviously, is an obvious. You know, again, for like-minded companies, you cannot rule out that there could easily be between, you know, $60 billion-$80 billion of synergies a year, right? You know, on a theoretical basis, between equal companies in looking at cost structures. I think as a final note, if you look at the future for what we do, we transport oil, transport oil that goes into a consuming part, but also, you know, part of the energy complex. That is changing, right? The energy complex will change. Not now, not in five years, maybe not even in 10 years, but it will change. When you get to that point, we don't believe that being small is the perfect position to be in. You're gonna have to invest in new ships, different ships. You're gonna need a strong current business to finance your transition over years into something else. For that, we think having a large-scale company listed with a good track record, that will enable you to slowly but surely make that transition, rather than suddenly being stuck with a small company, old ships, too early. That's kind of how we look at it, and I think, you know, my job and my colleagues' job is to do one thing only, that is to find ways of creating more shareholder value. That's how we built Hafnia from zero in 2010, and I think that's any management's job is to continuously and positively explore whatever opportunities are there and take the conversations and see if it makes sense or not before you make decisions. That's how we would approach it. Fair enough. I think that's all we. Yeah, I, that's as I hoped for. Thank you, Mike. The only thing I wanted on the operational side or financial side to divest in this, I actually think this is a very good slide b ecause it gives you some indications of where the market is in terms of 2026. Yeah. Just to remind everybody, the EBITDA was $200 – $560 in 2025. If you look at the analyst consensus, it's right now $590. I'm just, that's a very, very low growth. I don't expect you to comment on it. I just want to make the point that it seems to me, given what you just described of the market, that this is low. No, and, I mean, given where we are in today's market, that is public news, and it's out there, you saw the rates that we have put out. I mean, and you have those in the bottom, right? Yeah. In the middle as well, for Q1 cover rates, what that would mean, obviously, you know, people would put some seasonality into it. I mean, my best guess is, honestly, I think on the analyst side, now everyone is coming out with their result. My best guess is that they will have to up them a little bit, quite frankly. Yeah. We'll see about that. Mike, can we dig into some of the questions? Yes. There's a lot of questions about TORM, of course, and I think we've answered them. I perceive that. Then there's some questions about the. Sorry, we're diverting in all kinds of directions here, but is some of Hafnia's LR1s or LR2s trading crude? Some of the LR1s are, yes. That they are trading as Panamaxes in the Caribbean Sea. That's one of the strongest markets basically we're seeing at the moment, with rates around $60,000 so far around Q1, that has been super attractive. Okay. There's a question here: What is behind your less positive market outlook, especially with mixed market outlooks from peers for 2026? I think that as a fundamental part, you know, we look at the supply side and see that as I said, it's tweaked a bit more towards MRs this year than last year, so there will be more supply coming in, even though we'll lose a little bit. The big question in all of this is the sanctioned fleet and the dark fleet. This is the big question. If we continue to see that those ships reduce the utilization down, or even better, that most of the oil they carry is being forced out in the compliant trade, we're gonna have a massive year this year. This is the big question mark. At the moment, it's a very difficult one to assess because it's a political game. Is the U.S. gonna come down hard on Russia and try to prevent Russian oil from being transported on these type of ships? A lot of that alternative oil will move on compliant fleet. That's why we've been a bit cautious on that part, but, quite frankly, also, we, you know, what we're seeing now at the moment is a market that is so strong on crude and products that, you know, it's kind of a bit dangerous also to be taking too much away from the macro analysis, which for us would still be that things will then drop off a little bit coming out of the high season. There's a question here, I'm trying to rephrase it. Sort of asking you, sort of your earnings power through 2026 and 2027, and which specific market or fleet-related factors that you as an investor should be focused on here? I think what to focus on is actually that the product tanker market is 1 market. I think sometimes people have a tendency of trying to pick out 1 size versus the other, and that is not how it will work. Technically, you need to think about the product tanker market as 1 market. You can either have 3x 25,000 tons of cargo on an LR2 ship, or you can have 1x 25,000 on an MR ship, kind of, you know, easily explained. Which means that if freight goes away crazy in one size, you can split up the cargos and move them down into smaller sizes and save freight. Therefore, they're always intercorrelated. I wouldn't say that there is. You know, it's very seldom that they don't work somehow in tandem. I think fundamentally in the product tanker sector, if you put everything together, the medium range area is the area where there's most liquidity. Depending on how you want to invest, what you want to get into, you can say that you can buy and sell an MR ship in the morning. It's an easier sector to go in and out, liquid rather than LR2, for instance, or the smaller ships. I think that matters as well. Liquidity is obviously important for people getting in and out of a business. Okay, I just, there's just one thing that caught my eye, Mikael, and th at is we never talk about these strategic projects. There's one thing that caught my eye, and that's Complexio. Yeah. I guess over time you will speak more about these things, but maybe you can just give us an introduction to why do you have these strategic projects that are outside the normal scope of Hafnia? Well, we have them for two reasons. One is that, you know, we think it's important that you keep innovation going in a company. If all you do is the same all the time, people get complacent, so it's important to prepare ourselves for the future. One of the futures is the change of the energy complex, which I mentioned before, which is what do we do about dual fuel? What do we do about, you know, ammonia? We've been trying to, not to have any heavy investments, but we've made sure the organization follows and is ahead of that. The other one is technology. You know, I think technology for in Hafnia is a cornerstone, has been from almost day one. Complexio is one good example of someone we've worked with now for three years, and we have kind of put our company at their disposal to make sure that they can fast-track development. Technically, what I like about, you know, the whole Complexio thing is that, you know, everyone talks about AI, but the problem with AI in general is that AI doesn't understand your business. It can do a lot of other things and make your life fun and whatever, but it does not understand what you do. What Complexio has done is to invent a technology that starts by analyzing everything we do in Hafnia, every single process workflow, and then they use AI agent to help automate these processes, which is where we see real value. Now we are, we've reached a point where the product is there, and we are now a paying customer, and I have to say I'm super excited to see finally some of these AI-linked, high-level things actually being focusing in real life and giving us savings. This might be a good time to ask, because, Mikael, I – y ou probably also noted that a lot of the logistics companies took a huge hit two weeks ago. They came down on the stock price with 15%-20% overnight because of AI fears. Yeah. What's sort of your concern with AI within shipping and in general? My concern is that people do a lot of things without focusing on getting an ROE on it, and I think this is the key thing. Like, we don't have to do a lot of things just to kind of have fun with it during our daily life. I think for us it's a matter of only focusing on things that we can see gives you an output. We debate this a lot with our board, and I think we're super aligned on the thing that, make sure you come back and show us that whatever you are doing on the technology side gives a return, one way or another. I think as long as you keep that focus, you're okay, but if you let it spread too much off-piste, you know, it could be more of a fun thing to have rather than something that improves on what you do. Mikael, thank you very much for participating. I hope you got your answers right, and those who asked of you, thank you for participating. Thank you very much, Mikael. Have a nice day and a nice weekend. Thank you. Thank you.