Good morning, everyone, welcome to this first quarter 2021 results presentation. We will follow ordinary procedures. Tine Wollebekk and Klara-Lise Aasen will present the quarterly results before we have a Q&A session on the end. Please send your questions in the Q&A session to ir@banknorwegian.no. There is also a direct link on the website where you're at right now. We'll go directly to the presentations. Tine Wollebekk, our CEO, is first out. Welcome, Tine. Thank you so much. Yes, good morning. I think we all want to stop talking about the COVID-19, unfortunately, we are not there yet. For this quarter, definitely our net income, interest income is impacted both by the slow demand in the market, low activity, and even more so by currency effects, and we'll get back to that, with a result of NOK 397 million for the quarter post-tax. However, when we look at the underlying performance of the bank, we have a lot of positive highlights, and we do not see any structural changes that are negative, and we do not see any competition gap for Bank Norwegian in a negative way. On the contrary, we do see a good performance on our key indicators. We see more efficiency in our win rates and payouts. We are very confident that this is a temporary situation, and it will definitely shift with the shift in economies that we will also talk about today. We see early signs of recovery. It's way too early to talk about normalization, but we definitely see that activity is picking up. I'll also get back to that a little bit later. I think important for us on milestones for this quarter is definitely our European expansion. We have made some major progress, and we confirm the time plan and also the cost plan. We haven't been very detailed about the cost plan. We have indicated that the bank's model give a very low rollout cost upfront, which I think we are in the process of doing. I'll get a little bit more back to that as well. Of course, yesterday, the annual general meeting confirmed and approved the first dividend payout to the Norwegian Finans Holding ASA shareholders, 6 NOK dividend per share, 5 NOK that will be paid out 6th of May, and then we will pay out the last NOK after the end of September, given the financial and economic situation. Very confident about the future. Even though we can't see that we are bouncing back at 2019 levels just yet, there are positive forecast revisions in most markets, or at the same level. It's the green line that is a new forecast. These are the forecasts we've shown for the GDP development every quarter. I think it's important to highlight that for the Nordic markets, we see a rebound back to at least 2019 levels already in 2021, whereas Spain and Germany, who has been hit much harder on the GDP forecasting, they will bounce back more in 2020. Which in fact is a good time to enter markets is on the way on recovery, which is much better than entering on a top. We think this picture is confirming well also the confidence we have in our ability to grow the business as we have forecasted. I think still that the shift will only come with normalization, and we are a bit away from that. We know that when opening comes, it will definitely also increase travel. We will see a gradual normalization already this year, and that will increase travel and spending patterns. We look at the consumer finance index. No, confidence index. I want to highlight a few interesting things. This goes back from back in April 2020 when consumers really understood the extent of lockdown and the pandemic. What we see here is that in Norway, the white line, actually Norway was probably one of the-- or the market in the Nordic region that mostly lost confidence, whereas there's been a very consistent improvement. That also goes very well hand in hand with the fact that Norway is the market where we as a bank has also seen the biggest contraction in activity and loan volumes, both in installment loans and in credit card. To a large extent, the changes we have seen are related to Norway. Again now, the confidence is coming back. We see the other markets in the Nordic had a less steep fall, but they have not recovered as much either. They are much more stable, which is also shown in our numbers that I'll get back to. We saw Germany, which made it very good in the beginning, and now they are in the third wave. Definitely consumers are not happy about that. We also read about that in the news. As I said, this is a good time to enter market. Of course, for Spain, which is very much an open society that relies on travel, that has been a very dramatic journey for them. What we like to see here is the direction of the curve and the fact that this is now rebounding strongly this year. Looking at Norwegians, they are now booking their holidays, which is not a big surprise that they're booking more holidays in February than December, but still, it's a very good sign. In Sweden, we just included a poll there that shows that most people, on their wish list, they have travel on the first place. I also note, of course, that meeting loved ones is much lower. I will not do any mother-in-law jokes here. I will just hope to think that it's because we actually have been able to meet loved ones also during the lockdown. I think for us, we have met the lockdown with the cashback programs to substitute or supplement the travel-related benefits, which has been very good and appreciated by a lot of customers. Of course now with the start of the opening, we are working closely with Norwegian Airline to revamp and to get back in the second quarter with attractive benefits and offers to our common or shared customers. We're looking forward to that. A few highlights for each market. As mentioned, in Norway, where we've had the biggest change, we also see from the report from the Debt Register that the market continues to decline also through the quarter. We have not have any official numbers yet. We do see a good disbursement of new loans. We are seeing, as I said, structurally, we are doing very well. We have good win rates. The demand is lower, and more so the runoff is quite high given the fact, which is of course also a positive thing in many ways, that households have saved more with lower activity. They spend less, and they pay off more of their loans. In Sweden, of course they are impacted, the demand is impacted by the pandemic. On the other hand, we shifted distribution strategy last year, and we ramped up our indirect channel, which has been a very successful strategic move. We see that we have, for the third quarter in a row, a positive development in installment loans in Sweden, which is very positive and gives a good boost. We also see that with the increased indirect channel, we are taking down the direct channel, which also is, of course, a cost saving for the bank. In Denmark, we are gradually seeing opening. I would not even say gradually when I saw the opening last week in Copenhagen on TV. I think it is gradually. There's still a lot of things that's not opened in Denmark. We do see more activity on the credit card, which is very interesting, and we are following that closely to see that we actually get that pickup. We do have some challenges in Denmark on marketing. There are strict regulations in place. Of course we agree with them, which is about combining consumer finance and gambling, which is prohibited, which is a good thing. The point is that we are only doing digital marketing, and of course, we have to be very careful how we are positioning ourself in digital channels not to be crossing over those lines. Finland is very positive as well, on the new loans disbursement. As you know, we have a 10% rate cap in Finland, which is temporary and now been extended until September this year. We are doing very well and have a very high win rate in Finland. The reason that you not see the volume growth linked to that is that we have more challenges doing refinancing, because some segments will be left out when the rate cap is 10%. Also for the bank, a lot of our disbursements are related to top-up, which is of course restricted when we have a rate cap at 10%. We think it's very positive, and we see a phenomenal behavior on the loan book and the credit quality on those customers that we now get in. The risk-adjusted yield on these customers are very attractive. We also have in Finland marketing restrictions, which is quite demanding, as it also includes direct marketing to existing customers. That it makes it very sensitive what we can actually talk to our existing customers about. All in all, we are very confident, and March represents the first month since last summer where we had more activity or increased activity with our credit cards. 7,000 more cards were used in March than the month before, and that was the first, as I said, time since last summer we had an increase. That's very positive. Also, I think as some of you might have noticed, there's been a second round in the Norwegian Appeal Court on the Google verdict. The court agreed with Bank Norwegian that search engine optimization measures that we are using are in the best interest of customers, which is good for us. In the sense, it's good for the market, it's good for the customers. It is the way that we are running our direct marketing channels. We're very happy about that, and we're using that also in new markets. In Europe, we've achieved some important milestones in the past quarter. We've signed, as I mentioned contracts that confirm our low-cost rollout model. As you might remember I've said before, we have two focus areas in going out in new markets. One is to actually launch in Spain and Germany. The other one is to really make a playbook for new markets as we see our strategy to enter markets that have attractive features for the bank and making that as low entry efforts as possible. We are now doing some heavy lifting, including still in the low-cost plan, where we will be able to launch new markets quickly after we've launched these two. What we've seen is, as I said, confirms the rollout assumptions. We have also been registering the passporting to new markets. Of course, that is a formality, but still, it's been confirmed by the two central banks. What also is important is that we confirm the ability to do a digital experience and customer journey. All of that is related into four main areas. The digital onboarding with electronic ID, which will be enhanced of the services we have in the Nordic and is something that we will revert to in the Nordic market when we have done the integration in Europe. Information collection also interesting. We're using the traditional channels of credit bureaus like we do in the Nordic. We also do PSD2 solutions where we will work with technology third parties, and we will also bring that. We are also testing that at the moment in Finland as one market. Of course, the operational setup. The core banking system will be in place. Not least, a major new thing for us will be the SEPA payments, which will be upgrading also our services in the Nordic, and we are in the process of doing the final decisions there. That also will give a very solid construction or platform for the bank operating in new and existing markets. Having said all of that, Lise will now take us through some of the numbers before we'll go into the questions. Thank you, Tine. Good morning, everyone. I am again very happy to be here today. It's springtime, and what's better to start a day with than to present the Q1 results for the bank. My slides are not so colorful and cool, but I think that they provide a lot of information, so stay tuned. As Tine said the revenues are very much impacted by the pandemic and the currency. We have a double effect. In the fourth quarter, we didn't have these currency effects as we've seen now with the strong Norwegian krone, particularly at the end of March. Just some highlights on this slide because I have more slides on the details. The total income is down 3.6 percentage points. A lot of that is currency, as we will also see on the net interest income slide. It's also underlying a lower activity, lower demand, and particularly on credit card. While I'm also smiling here, we're seeing that there are increase in usage in March. More than 7,000 more active customers on the credit cards in March compared to February, which is really, really good. On the commission and bank services income, if we had compared to Q1 last year, which was NOK 193 million on that line, we see a reduction due to lower spend abroad and also some domestic. It is also the Visa kickback that we typically book in the first quarter. Last year, it was NOK 63.7 million, while lower activity this quarter, sorry, 2020 compared to 2019, has reduced that income line on that element to NOK 29.8 million. Due to less traveling and everything we've seen on social restrictions during 2020, we also have lower income from currency conversion and other credit card related income. Insurance products are less in this quarter. Due to uncertainty, we still need to look at the figures and maybe book that in April. The figures in Q1 are also lower due to prioritization where we take the insurance profit sharing in second quarter. Net change in value on securities and currency is very little currency effect on that line in this quarter, only NOK 4 million. The remaining of the NOK 28 is mainly fair value adjustments in portfolios in Sweden and Denmark. The Norwegian is actually contributing positively on that line this quarter. Last quarter, we had the Visa dividend of NOK 24 million, which is evening out some of the negative fair value adjustments on the portfolio in the fourth quarter. Overall, total income, it's softer than we would have liked to seen. At the same time, as Tine has also now explained, there are positive signals also going forward. Costs, I will come back to. The net profit before loan losses is NOK 918 million in the quarter. That's down some from the fourth quarter and also from the first quarter last year due to lower demands and currency. Loan losses I'll come back to in the following presentation slide. Net interest income. This bridge is new this quarter, and it's just to try to explain some of the underlying elements. I will start at the right-hand side on the two round columns of 36 and 28. Those combined are NOK 64 million, and those are currency effects and the two days less that we have in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. We have the small February month in our quarter now, that also affects the income side. If we take those away, it's more or less flat interest income level compared to Q4. There are underlying elements on the gross interest income being reduced on installment loans of NOK 35 million. Close to NOK 27 million in that is raised to Norway, so it's Norway, as Tine also said, has been having the hardest hit in our figures also this quarter. The NOK 15 million in credit card is also mainly Norway. The underlying in the other three countries are fairly stable. Slight reduction, but it's quite little compared to Norway in this quarter. Norway is also contributing positively on the savings account, the gray one in the middle. NOK 26 million of those NOK 29 represents the lower deposit volumes in Norway, as well as interest rate reductions. Our yields are being quite stable. Our total loan yield is down 10 basis points. Underlying the installment loan rates are slightly down while the credit cards are slightly up. The combined effect is 10 basis points down. The risk-adjusted total loan yield is of course affected by the loan loss provision. Also this quarter, we have the implementation of new definition of default, which gave an ECL effect of NOK 22 million due to the implementation. In Q1 obviously last year, we had the NOK 230 management override that is causing the dip in that quarter. Yesterday, we also announced new deposit interest rates reductions in Norway because we would like to take deposits further down. In the first quarter, we have taken down the deposits in Norway by NOK 2.8 billion, but it's gradually flattening out. We would like to have an even more balanced balance sheet and less deposits. We have market adjusted our interest rates on that in Norway. For the 86% of our customers who have deposits below NOK 250,000, they will benefit from 60 basis points, still quite high level, effective from 1st of July. Each of these interest changes is about an annualized effect of NOK 37 million on the deposits level, which we end at now in March. A combined effect after 1st of July will be approximately NOK 74 million on those two in reduced interest expense on an annualized basis. Costs. This slide we didn't have in last quarter, but we have taken it back and tried to explain some of the elements here, but it's still flexible. Bank Norwegian, our cost base is possible to take down if we believe that is needed. Particularly the marketing costs. In Q4 it was rather low. We talked about that last quarter that we had a lower activity level. Now we're taking up more to normalized levels. Cashback is included in the marketing of approximately NOK 6.6 million in the quarter. The other cost elements are quite stable. In Q4 we had some one-off effects also on both services from debt collection as well as some consultancy services, which is the main reason for the NOK 78 million in the fourth quarter. We don't have those recurring items now in the first quarter. On the European expansion, as Tine has talked about, we still plan to go live in Q4. So far, no cost has been added on direct costs from external parties. We are a team working with this, and we're really excited about the progress. We see rather low costs also in this, as we have talked about also in the capital markets there, that's the expectations also for Spain and Germany. Credit quality. This time I only have one slide, but I'll use a little bit of time of it. Let's start with the Stage 3 loans and the development. The development is NOK 500 million from the fourth quarter, and it's quite a normal underlying development, is as expected. NOK 200 million is related to the one-off effect when we changed the default definition in our books. The largest change has come to Finland, approximately 40% of the increase in Stage 3 relates to Finland. In Finland, it's also interesting to note that the debt collection regulation in Finland is quite different from the IFRS and the EBA guideline on new definition of default. Now we get a larger part of customers into Stage 3 which haven't even gone to debt collection yet. We have a better quality in Stage 3, which is also the reason why our coverage ratio has gone down from 40.9% to 40%. However, we're not happy with the Stage 3 ratio. It's increased to 26.2, that's quite natural due to the low volume and currency that we've seen. The total lending is down 5.2% compared to last quarter and 13.5 compared to the same quarter last year. From the previous quarter, about half, 60% is actually currency. When the growth comes back, we are optimistic that the newer vintages that comes into our portfolio, they have a lower risk, and we expect them also, we see lower inflow to default and lower inflow to debt collection on those in all countries. In the middle, we have the loss allowance coverage ratios, and it has increased to 12.1 on the total overall. We think that the sale of the two portfolios on credit card in Sweden and Denmark, we have also been able to confirm our provisioning level. It's also good to note that we have a combined net gain of approximately NOK 30 million on those two sales. That is also Stage 3 would have been 25.5, the ratio, if that sale had been commenced by and booked for in Q1. 70 basis points on the ratio it would have been in the Stage 3 ratio. Loan loss provisions, very short. It's NOK 390 million. The reason why it's increased from 3.6 to 3.7 is the balance sheet that we divide on, which is smaller because it's 2 percentage points down from Q4. That also includes the new definition of default. We also have kept the scenarios and the mix of the probability weight on optimistic, pessimistic, and base from Q4, which has also been described in the financial accounts for the quarter. Overall, we are quite positive, and we also see some positive signs in the macro, particularly in March. On the balance sheet, I will start at the top. The asset side, it's very liquid. We have NOK 21 billion in securities. Around 75% is in Norwegian portfolio, and it is state and municipalities and covered bonds. It's quite a good return on the Norwegian portfolio, while the remaining 25%, which is 10 in Sweden and Finland and 5% in Denmark, has more negative return. That is expected due to the market conditions. Overall, the annualized return on that portfolio is 56 basis points combined on all four portfolios, while the Norwegian isolated is 81 basis points. On the lending, I already said it's down NOK 2.2 billion. NOK 1.3 billion of that from previous quarter is currency. If we take the NOK 2.2, NOK 1.2 billion is installment loans, and a whole NOK 1 billion relates to currency on that. It is Norway who's the main contributor to the reduction. We see positive in, as Tine Wollebekk also said, in other countries. In credit card, it's more down. It's about NOK 1 billion in total volumes. 492 million is Norwegian reduction from last quarter, and the rest is a lot of currency and slightly down in Sweden and Finland, while actually Denmark is slightly up in the quarter. On the liability side, deposits we have talked about. We have a deposit-to-loan ratio now 97%, and we would like to take it down towards the 80s. That's why we also do the interest rate reductions as explained. We would like to issue more MREL-eligible capital in the second half of 2021. In March, as you may have noted, we have issued 2 bonds, one NOK 700 million and SEK 300 at very attractive prices. I'm also very happy to see that the Nordic Bond Pricing has reviewed our bonds, and the spreads have contracted 55, 60 basis points over the last couple of months. That's really good. Of course, equity has grown. I'm really happy to see that the dividend will be paid out and reduce some of the equity, but it's still in the balance sheet as of end of March. Capital, very short on this. You've seen it before. We are very well capitalized. We're really ready to grow and expand and give dividend. The dividend's already taken out of this 23.5% that we have as core equity one. The one and a half percentage points increase from last quarter. Around 50 basis points relates to the results after deducting dividend. More than 55 basis points is FX related. If we had not taken the dividend out of these, we would have had a buffer of 9.25 percentage points. The core equity one would have been 26.75. We are happy that we are able to deliver a dividend in May. That's short on the annual general meeting yesterday. Happy that it was decided to give dividend, that will help us on getting improved return on equity, which in the quarter was 14.3. If we had been able to take away the dividend, we would have been 16.1 in the quarter. Also if we'd had the equity level, which we believe is the most right according to our capital requirements of 17.5%, the return on equity would have been 20.7. 70 would have been great, 20.7 is also good. The remaining first NOK 1 per share will be paid if the board decides that is the right thing to do in Q4. Finally, the merger is also approved by the annual general meeting yesterday. I'll not intend to go through the details on the timeline here, but the plan is to have this concluded in June, and we will go from NOFI to BANO as a ticker. With that, I'm happy to give the table back to you, Tine. Thank you, Carine. Just to wrap up a little bit before the questions, I think despite the pandemic and despite the effect it has had on the first quarter results, we definitely are on track to deliver on our strategy. I think it's most important for us today to communicate that we are ready. We have refined both for the Nordic and also are ready to Europe according to our plan. While the second quarter will still be, to some extent, impacted by all the effects we've talked about, we definitely see some early signs of recovery. I think again, as Klara-Lise also mentioned, our sustainable and fully digital business and operating model is a very enormous strength in the market as we look at it now with the flexibility and agility we have. We are well positioned to reopen. That goes on many levels. First of all, even with the dividend payout, we are very well capitalized to support and fund our growth, which is important. Also on feature levels, we will launch new wallet solutions in the second quarter in the Nordics, which will help us together with the program of the card to get in front in the wallet of our customers. We also do other new features that will support the customers in their internet shopping and financing of larger purchases. All in all, I think that's important for rebounding when society opens. As mentioned, the milestones with Europe, to have that infrastructure in place now and start doing that development and get it all together in the next couple of months is a very high priority for us. All of that supports our long-term targets of growth, of return on equity, and of course, still our ambition to pay out excess capital. With that, I think we will open for questions. I'll just remind you, Klara-Lise Aasen just said that this will be the last, I think, it will be the last reporting for NOFI. We will, during June, revert to the ticker BANO. That's a bit down the road, so it's not there yet. Still just a reminder. Klara-Lise Aasen, will you join me here? Then Mats was supposed to be up here as well, so you could see him as well as hearing his voice. Due to the COVID-19, we will keep a distance, and Mats will still be sitting with his dark voice behind the camera. I hope that will work well. Perfect. We'll start. We have received a few questions so far, so please just continue sending in questions. We can start a little bit on growth. You mentioned that you have a good win rate in Norway still, but a higher runoff as customers are paying off loans early. Can you say anything about level of new loans and churn in Norway in Q1 versus Q4? Yes, I can say. I think that actually the run rate in Q4 was slightly higher in Norway. We see that the new loans are around NOK 1.8 billion on both. The run rate is, sorry, NOK 1.7 billion. The run rate in Q4 was around NOK 2 billion, while now in Q1 it's down to NOK 1.8 billion approximately. That is, yeah. For the quarter? Yeah, for the quarter. Yes. For all the markets. Yes. For all the markets. That was not Norway. Yeah. It's a little bit different for Norway. Yeah. Yeah, for all the markets, sorry. Yeah, that's all the markets. Yes. Yeah. For Norway, it's slightly skewed from that. Yes. Let's see. Have you seen a pickup in growth during April, or will this come later in the year? It's a bit early to see April. It depends also on you talk about credit cards or loans. We are not seeing, as we said, we saw early signs in March. That continues. I would also say it's not normalization we talk about. It's still low levels. Of course, the lockdown is still quite extensive in most markets. There are restrictions. Of course, the major restriction that will make a change for us will be when travel is opened up again, which is still, I guess, at least a few months ahead of us. It's not a dramatic change yet. Thank you. I'm sorry. Can you repeat what the cashback effect was on costs, and is this expected to be stable in the next few quarters? Well, we started the cashback in February. In the first quarter, we have booked NOK 6.6 million. How the level will be going forward, that we don't know yet. I guess it will be quite stable. The fact is that we got a good interest and people have signed up to it. There's, of course, more people signing up, but not in the same amount. Also now with the reward program ramping up and getting back and people being more interested, we expect a lot of customers will revert. When we did the cashback program, we made a very easy feature in the app. It's just a one-click exercise, and you can go back and forth as you like. We are not seeing this as a major cost element at all, and we see that in combination with the cost and reward. Could you clarify, please, if the sale of the default portfolio was completed in Q1 and these are out of the books, or will this be booked in Q2 and the gain of NOK 30 million also to come in Q2? They will be booked in Q2. It was completed in mid of April, both of them. The gain will also come in Q2. Yes. Yeah. If new sale increase post lockdowns, will loan loss ratio fall in 2022, 2023 as volumes are so weak now? Yes. That's the expectation. Yes. Yeah. I think there are a couple of things there. One is that the ratios will go down, and the other thing is that as it opens up, the macro forecast will improve, which is also a major component of our provisioning levels. There are many factors that will play in a positive way here. Of course, we have talked about that in numerous quarters now that we see a very good improvement in credit quality, which is not that easy to see yet in the provisionings because of the negative macro outlooks. When will you start testing piloting in the new German and Spanish markets? I think it'll be during the summer. There will be different piloting on different features, but definitely we will be starting in the summer to piloting. Yeah. Expected launch, so to speak? Still fourth quarter. I would say beginning of first quarter, I hope. Yes. The thing is, we want to go slow. I think that's important to stress that. Yeah. Maybe good to remind that we have also said that the assets will start slow and break even will take 13 to 15 months. Right. It's not like from day one. We'll hopefully have income from day one, but it will take some time. One more question on growth. Your currency adjusted loan growth was negative with NOK 893 versus negative NOK 847 in Q4. How much of this is seasonality, and how much is an incremental increase in negative lending due to structural issues? I wouldn't say there's a lot of seasonality there. We had the Easter, end of March, beginning of April. That would be a time for a little bit less demand. In general, I think it's much more to do with the fact that most markets had a severe close down after the holidays. In fact, the society was more open before Christmas than it was in January, February, March. Especially in Norway, but also Denmark had a very hard close down, and Finland and Sweden also was very much impacted. I think that is the main explanation for the drop we saw. Yeah. Yep. We received a question on incentive pay, incentive pay from Visa, but I believe Caroline's answered that. Yeah, I think I answered it. Yeah. Just to repeat, we normally also book the insurance, the kickback or the profit sharing also in Q1. That we haven't done yet. That will come most likely in April or now in Q2. The other, I think I mentioned in the presentation. Yeah. With the emerging new airlines such as Norse Atlantic, are there discussions or plans to collaborate on the Norwegian Reward program? Well, I think it's up to Norwegian Airline, who other partners they bring in, and we are focusing on strengthening and revamping the reward program to make it the most attractive program for customers in the Nordic region when the summer approach. I believe we're through all the questions, actually. Very good. Thank you so much for joining us, and see you in August for Bahnhof presentations. Have a nice day. Thank you.
Loading workspace