All right. Sara, can you just verify that everyone are on mute? We're ready to start the presentation. Welcome everyone to this presentation from Volue Management. My name is Haakon Amundsen. I'm the analyst in ABG covering Volue. We're planning to do this the usual way. We'll give the word to Trond and Arnstein to run us quickly through the results and the outlook, and then we'll open up for questions. You can use the Raise Hand function or the chat function, I'll try to moderate so that we can get a proper Q&A. By that, Trond, I'll just turn the word on to you. Thank you very much. Presentation. Thank you very much. Let me start by giving you a brief overview of the company. The company was created back in 2020, but our roots dates back to 1969 as part of a Norwegian research institute. We were asked by Scandinavian energy companies to solve two problems. First problem was to help improve valuation and forecasting of power production. Second problem was to help the move from analog to digital management of the electrical distribution grid, and today we would call it digitalization. Two problems, one for power producers and one for power distributors. We researched these two topics for 27 years before we were privatized in the mid-nineties. To date, we spent more than NOK 4 billion in R&D and still counting. In a nutshell, we focus on helping customers capture energy from nature to transform it to electricity that is monetized, distributed, and consumed. Volue is now a front runner with digital coverage along the clean energy value chain, from monitoring using sensors to realized cash and trading. Building from our successes in the Norwegian home markets, we've now earned the trust of more than 2,200 customers across more than 40 countries. If you look at our platform, at the core, is the value offering, and we measure the success by how the platform is utilized by our customers. Our solutions optimize 480 terawatt hours of power generation annually. Led by more than 45 billion installations in the cloud, we execute more than 37 million trades every year on behalf of our customers. Our Market Insight service for power professionals holds 150,000 price curves, accessed 650 billion times annually. Our sensor platform collects 120 trillion data points from our 4,500 installations. These numbers, they increase every year, and it's how we retain 98% of our customers. We're active in three segments, all with relevance to the transition to renewable energy. For the energy segment, we decided to expand from a dominating Nordic position in 2013 and into Continental Europe. Since then, we worked to expand our platform into thermal, solar, wind, batteries, et cetera. This is important to our customers as they continue to operate their existing assets while expanding capacity in new asset types. For our Power Grid business, we enjoy a strong market position in the Nordics. We have decades of experience supporting our customers and building probably the strongest grid in Europe, and now, of course, tested by the EV revolution. We do believe that we can expand our footprint on the back end of our market position in the energy segment. Looking at our infrastructure business, we've so far focused on SaaS transformation in a home market, with more than 1,000 customers in the infrastructure construction business and covering 85% of the Norwegian population with our water and wastewater business. Combining that with the ongoing expansion to Sweden and Denmark, we believe in further increased profitable growth across Scandinavia. Maybe we should have a look at some of the key developments in the group. Looking at the financial performance in the quarter, we delivered record revenues of NOK 339 million, which is 9% higher than Q4 2021. Recurring revenues amounted to NOK 211 million, representing 12% growth compared to last year. SaaS revenues ended on NOK 79 million in fourth quarter, which is at 22% growth compared to the same period last year. If we look at our segments, we see that our energy business was the largest growth driver with 12% revenue growth. We delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19% in the quarter, which is an improvement from first half 2022. Looking at the world around us, we see that the green transition is no longer a buzzword that is happening in the distant future. It's happening now, and it's happening with full force. The speed of the green transition is making Volue more relevant day by day, creating market opportunities that we're ready to grab. In the first half of the year, we opened an office in Tokyo, Japan, and being the first location outside Europe, it is exciting to announce that we now have won our first customer in Japan. The volatility in the energy market last year provided some additional non-recurring revenues, allowing us to invest in long-term growth while maintaining margins. These revenues are expected to decrease somewhat in 2023, while inflation is affecting us like everyone else. Consequently, our margin pathway is under review, and we'll shortly go into more details. Looking at 2022 overall, we delivered operating revenues of NOK 1,270 million, representing 17% growth from 2021. The energy segment is leading the way with NOK 762 million in revenue, which is an increase of 28% from last year. A contributor to the growth in the energy segment is non-recurring revenues sparked by tailwind in energy market operations following volatility in the energy markets. Recurring revenues amounted to NOK 765 million in 2022, growing 15% from 2021, creating a solid ARR foundation. SaaS revenues for 2022 ended at NOK 283 million, growing 28% from 2021. SaaS is growing at a higher pace than revenues and ARR, indicating the solid progress of our shift in business models. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year was 17% due to margin improvements in the second half of the year. The proof point of our increasing relevance is that we're winning new business, I'm happy to report strong sales performance in all segments during the fourth quarter. Let me highlight two important deal for us. First, a breakthrough contract with a German power major in the energy segment. The customer has split its business into green and brown power production and choose a cross-portfolio platform of capabilities from Volue to digitize the entire value chain of its renewable portfolio. The contract was signed less than five months after first point of contact, which for us demonstrates that our customer base is moving faster and perhaps becoming less conservative. This puts Volue in pole position for winning more market share. Recurring revenues and SaaS revenues make up 75% of the contract, which for us is a testament to our own growing SaaS journey. After conducting a comprehensive market analysis, the customer found Volue to be unmatched in the competitive landscape. Winning this breakthrough contract also for us brings a validation to our ambitions Continental Europe. Second, to meet the expectations of fast and efficient electrification of society, Volue and Elvia, which is a major Nordic utility, has signed a strategic contract, and our joint goal is to launch a set of solutions that will enable the utility to digitize the end-to-end processes of planning and constructing new grids. The new solutions will be modular, targeting a wider European market, deployable across different geographies and regulations. Recurring revenues and SaaS revenues make up 45% of the contract, yet again highlighting our ongoing SaaS journey. By automating what is today manual work processes and enabling mobile access, the result is a streamlined workflow within high efficiency improvements for electrical utilities. We believe this will significantly strengthen our offering in the European market. Arnstein, would you go over the results of the fourth quarter? Yes. Thank you, Per. I will now go through the section for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022. Volue's revenue continued to grow in the fourth quarter. Operating revenues ended at NOK 339 million, an increase on 9% from Q4 2021. Fourth quarter 2021 was our previous record quarter with regards to revenues, and we are now setting a new record. We're also happy to see that a growth in recurring revenues and SaaS are delivering as upon our targets with revenues on a recurring business model. Our energy segment is leading the way in revenues, growth, and profitability. Volatility in the power markets within our revenues from market operations came down somewhat in the fourth quarter compared to the 2022 as a whole. We believe that the volatility will find a new normalized level in 2023. In addition to energy, we're also pleased to see that our shift in business models are giving solid ARR growth rates. Also we can see upon our sales closing targets that our recurring base is growing strongly. Volue continues to invest in scaling in our organization to meet our long-term targets. As stated in our Q3 presentation, improving margins and cash flow is core priority, and we are pleased to see the uptick in margins from the first half 2022. Adjusted EBITDA margins ended in 19%, delivering upon our targets. Key element going forward is to improve the cash conversion in the business, and we see that during 2022, we have pressure upon inflation and personnel costs, that furthermore gives pressure upon the margins. Also impacting the EBIT levels in this quarter is a deferred consideration related to acquisition of Likron, as a part of the transaction that has been booked over the profit loss in Q4. We're moving on to our recurring revenue. As stated, it's core, and the growth journey are based on uplifts in our annual recurring revenues. That remains a core focus into 2023. Share of revenues now is at 63% for 2022. We generated NOK 211 million in recurring, creating a growth rate of 12% compared to Q4 2021. The growth in ARR is driven from all our segments. In Q4, SaaS revenues grew with 2022, for a similar quarter in 2021, and 28% for the year at itself, leaving us, the SaaS revenues at 23% out of total revenues. Looking into, the growth in annualized recurring revenue basis, is mainly driven by both new sales, both on new logos, but also uplift to upselling to existing customers. We can see, from the uplift from also previous quarter, but also looking back, to Q4 2021, that there is a solid growth in the base. The growth from Q3 was 7% in the quarter. That leaves us with a solid order backlog entering into 2023. That's also a strong underlying growth in existing business that also will give uplift in the profitability plan for that part of the ARR business entering into 2023. Our base at the end of the quarter is NOK 878 million. Furthermore, we see that our churn level remains low. This is a testimony that our services is business critical and vital to our customers' business processes. Statistically speaking, churn levels below 2% suggest that the average customer life cycle is 50 years. Looking into our energy segments, we see that our main growth is coming from this segment with a 12% growth rate from Q4. We have seen volatility in the power markets, and that's providing tailwind for the trading advisory part of the portfolio. It has decreased compared to the rest of 2022, but still delivering a solid contribution for the segment. Going into next year, as we've said, we're expecting some more less volatility, and somewhat less revenues from this segment. As we also see in the base, we are seeing increased demand for forecast and analytics services, leading to strong sales, increased order backlog, and that we will also see on the uptick in the ARR going into 2023. We see that our margins has been improved since Q4 2021. For the power grid segment, we had a quarter with a strong sales, leading to uplift in our base. We see that the growth from this area is improving. We are taking less impact from projects, delivery project with lower contribution. This gives impact on the margins that has improved from Q4 2021. We invest quite significantly, that is of course impacting the margins for the segments, compared to compared to the underlying business that is performing good, as we are investing quite new in new business models and new products for the future. For the infrastructure segments, we are very pleased to see that shift in business model are progressing as planned. We can see that from the uplift in the margins, though in not margins, but ARR levels. We are managing to protect the software revenues despite the large shift in the revenue stream. That's we during 2022 have completed most of the shift in the business model entering into 2023 with a solid ARR base and a good ARR prospect for growth for 2023. The margins is weaker, we expect uplifts in 2023 due to the ARR growth that will get full impact from January 2023. We have broken down down the revenue streams per segments, and I want to draw your attention to the revenues from the energy market operations. We have talked about revenues from trading activities that has increased in the volatility energy markets, and this number is affected for 2023. This sums up about NOK 220 million, and it contains about NOK 60 million, what we can see abnormal revenues in 2022. With that, I'll leave the word back to you again, Tom. Thank you very much, Arnstein. This is our hypothesis on which Volue was founded almost three years ago. The hypothesis is that increased levels of clean energy would put pressure on the infrastructure. If you work your way upwards from the bottom of the pyramid, you'll quickly see that the hypothesis is quite spot on the development we are seeing. Based on this idea, we're building our business, and since listing, we have achieved a great deal. Let's take a look at what we've achieved since Volue was listed in 2020. We've expanded from the DACH area and grown a significant position in Iberia and Italy. We have established operations in Japan to take advantage of the opportunities following the deregulation of the energy market. The Japanese market design is built on the Nordic model, which we helped shape since the inception in the nineties. Also, since listing, we've acquired two strong competitors and created a fully integrated organization scale for growth. Our operating revenues has increased by 37%, our annual recurring revenues has increased by 34%, and our SaaS revenues are up 93%. If you look at the number of algo trades executed on the Volue platform, it has increased by 76% from 21 million in 2020 to 37 million in 2022. The Volue platform has become the market leader and executes about a quarter of all intraday on the European Power Exchange, EPEX, on behalf of customers. These are impressive numbers, and it is a testament of trust from our customers. The numbers prove that we're bringing more customers on the platform and that customers keeps growing their activities in the short-term markets. Consequently, Volue's offering is critically embedded in our clients' day-to-day operations, which is at the core of our strategy. The Volue growth is not happening in a vacuum. The green transition is happening right now with an even stronger force than we envisioned when we created the company less than three years ago. During this period, Western Europe has installed 50 GW of wind and solar. In comparison, Norway's total installed capacity is 40 GW, and it's taken us 100 years to get to that number. The next two years, additional 67 GW will be brought online, and in the next five years, we're looking at 195 GW. In the next 10 years, Europe will have 400GW of renewables added to the energy mix. This creates volatility in the energy markets like we've never seen before. Volatility is definitely here to stay, and volatility does not only come from intermittent renewables being brought online, and there are changes that very few anticipated back in 2020. The war in Europe and Ukraine has created geopolitical ripple effects to the energy markets. On one axis, we're seeing regulatory changes. Energy security has risen to the top of everyone's agenda. Governments are now ready to intervene in power markets to an extent that we haven't seen in a long time. REPowerEU is the European Commission moving away from gas as the bridge to renewables and a push for energy independence from Russia. We're also seeing market changes. As a consequence of the drastic changes in energy prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, long forward contracts has sent European energy giants into risk of bankruptcies and governmental bailouts. This causes liquidity in the energy markets to move from future forwards to day-ahead and intraday markets. Additionally, the European day-ahead and intraday markets are not harmonized, intelligent, and interconnected. What's the sum of the changes in the world around us, and what does that mean for Volue? Well, 2022 proved gravitational towards the monetization part of the value chain. When our revenues from energy market operations spiked, we were quick to respond. We maintained laser focus, adapting to the shifting market trend, which again opened attractive opportunities for us. We used the spike in trading revenues to fuel investments in the trading portfolio while maintaining our margins. These investments are responses to the changes in the market that comes as a direct consequence of the changing world around us, strengthening our position going forward. Entering 2023, we see inflation causing pressure on margins, and we're expecting the high profitability revenue from trading activities to be normalized. Profitability measures are being implemented to counter the effects. For us, this is a balancing act. Growth is our main priority, and we want to remain flexible to grab available market opportunities. At the same time, we're increasing our focus on profitability. We maintain focus on building the European number one position in energy and power grid segments, and we continuously evaluate our product roadmap, and we see a gravitation towards the monetization part of the value chain, with less focus on hardware and industrial IoT. The consequence of the journey we've been on in 2022 is our margin pathway is under review, and for 2023, we're seeing adjusted EBITDA margins to improve from 2022 levels. As we did for 2022, we've set some priorities, ambitions, and goals for 2023. Top-line growth remains the priority, and the 2025 target, NOK 2 billion including M&A, remains intact. We'll continue to grow our ARR business in line with 2022 performance, and we believe in long-term growth targets of 15%. Somewhat lower non-recurring revenues this year may limit the growth from 2022. We'll focus on profitability initiative following a more normalized European market. Finally, we see opportunities for structural growth through M&A. I think that concludes the presentation part of the call. All right. That's good. We have plenty of time for Q&A, and I see that we already have a question, so we can start with you, Gard. Go ahead. Thank you. First of all, I have a couple of questions. Is it possible to be even more specific on your, on your 2023 guiding? I mean, especially then on growth, what should we expect when we know that, you know, power grid and infrastructure is likely to grow, but energy might be lagging? Do you expect to be far off the 15% or where is. possible to be any more specific? Yeah, we don't want to give guide for a specific kind of percentage. What we're saying during the presentation is that we're expecting the non-recurring revenues from the more volatile levels to be declined. We see a stronger underlying growth in ARR. But we believe it is somewhat down from 15%, but still on a double-digit growth. Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. My next question. You still have the 50% SaaS revenue share target by 2025. That means that you almost have to grow SaaS revenues 4x from the levels you are at now ending 2022. Are you confident in this given that the share now is only currently 23%, and the fact that the growth this year hasn't been sort of a whopping one? Yeah. We are expecting to have good growth, high growth on SaaS also for 2023. We're not stating that we're having a absolute target in 2025 of 50% of revenues from SaaS. For changes in business models and then also kind of the new sales coming into SaaS, we expect a good growth. We're not very specific when it comes to what amount that should be in 2025. Okay. We should not put any emphasis on the stuff you said at the Capital Markets Day then regarding that when you said you wanted to grow towards 50% SaaS share in by 2025. We will continue to grow towards 50 and, we have not detail stated when we're going to kind of hit the target of 50%. We are on the path and, more and more revenues will come into that, but not very specific when it actually is into on that level. Okay. Thank you. Last question from me then. What do you see as the sort of primary growth drivers then in 2023, when you expect a decline in non-recurring energy revenues, but both in terms of segments, services, geographical footprint, sort of what trends do you see and what will be most important for the overall market growth? For 2023, we see good growth in software ARR and software as a service revenues. We're seeing growth across the European continent. Looking at Europe, the market opportunity in Europe is pretty much sort of the same. There's good tailwind in the market. Europe is acting quite coordinated in terms of the green transition. There's no particular geographies in Europe that points out. We know that both DACH and the Nordic is strongholds, and we of course expect them to be good contributors. Okay. Thank you. Okay. Yeah. There is another raised hand from Henrik. Go ahead. Yes. Can you hear me? Yep, we can hear you. Great. I just wanted to check firstly one thing with you. When you say that the adjusted EBITDA, or the margin is expected to improve from 2022 levels, is that to understand, as, you know, related to the 17% for the year as a whole or 19%, that you had on the closing on the Q4 basis? Oh, it's related to the 17% 17, yeah. year as in Okay. Good. Good. My second question is, when you say that you will focus on profitability initiatives, following a more normalized European energy market, could you be more specific on what kinds of actions you are planning for in 2023? Are we talking about, you know, letting people go? Or is it more like, increasing prices on the part of your portfolio that will, or is more stable, so to speak? Could you give some more color on that? We have sort of our existing portfolio products, and then we have long-term growth portfolios. We're looking to increase the portfolio in the existing part of the business. That's a combination of price increases, SaaS transformation and better balance on new investments in the existing portfolio. Okay. Good. Last from me, the free cash flow was quite weak in the fourth quarter as far as I could see, largely due to working capital buildup. Is this expected to be reversed in the first quarter? Or, is there anything you would, you know, comment on that? Yeah. We have a buildup also towards the years because we do the most of our invoicing in start of year. We'll reduce the kind of working capital. Especially there we have for the AR business, we were kind of in the start of the year, we are kind of invoicing that, but also when it comes to the NR business, we have a kind of spike in towards the end of the year. That's meaning that the kind of free cash flow will then improve throughout the Q1 quarter. Okay. Thank you so much. Okay. Looks like we have no raised hands. Okay. Well, here we got one from Thomas Brown. Go ahead before me. Go ahead. Hi. Thanks for your time today. Thomas Brown here from Premier Miton. Couple of questions, if I may. The first few are around market share. You've shown some nice numbers in the presentation. With your volume on EPEX, who would you How big is the number two, and what would you think their share is? sort of straight from the hip, I don't have the number two. What I can say, if you look at the other participants on EPEX, there is a combination of smaller vendors and some in-house solutions. We're sort of a solid number one position. Okay. Would you guess your share by value is also a quarter? That's a very good question. Do you think share by value in terms of traded volumes in cash or number of trades? Would you think about sort of from a vendor perspective, the value of the market? You do a quarter of the trades. I was wondering that if you value those trades as a proportion of the total value traded on EPEX, whether that would also be about a quarter of the value, or if you're doing a very large number of small trades. It's hard to give an exact exact answer to that because parts of what we do is also to aggregate a number of deals into sort of larger chunks. It's really hard to. Okay. All right. com Okay. I think what I can sort of to add some more color to it, if you look at the growth in algo traded volumes in general, it grows year by year, both in terms of participants, and the participants moving more volume to intraday. Also it grows across different power exchanges. This market is really attractive. It grows across Europe. Okay. Great. Then congratulations on the, on winning the German Power major. I suppose with many bidding processes, there'd be a first round, which would be demonstrating technical capability, and then a second one on price. I just wonder whether you have any information on the number of competitors that tried to pass the technical round, and how many of them passed? Yeah. The... It's easy to answer the last question, or how many passed. They were looking for a value chain proposition. They wanted to cover the value chain and if they could find a vendor that could help them, rather than for them to have to piece together a solution from multiple vendors. There was only one that could offer the solution. That was us. Right. Okay. That's very informative on the competitive situation. I guess the other question I would have, so shorter term, would be, with respect to your margin pathway under review, maybe I missed it, but have you guided on when you expect to give us a bit more information on how you expect the margin to progress? Yeah, we were not given the details, but we do expect that, we will use Q4 Q1 to kind of revisit our roadmaps and our kind of investments levels. At quarter, the first quarter presentation, we expect it to be some more, give more information on that. Great. Okay, I'll leave it there. Thank you very much indeed. Okay. Question from Russell. Go ahead. Hi, guys. Just a follow-up on the one-off revenues in energy. I think you've got that slide where you've got 16% from energy market operations and 13% from other revenue non-recurring, so totaling 29%. You know, that totals NOK 220 million, but you're only expecting NOK 60 million to disappear. Is NOK 150 of one-off revenues the normal amount in that business, or could it be kind of higher or worse than that? The other non-recurring revenues, this is kind of project revenues that is kind of not consultings, apart from our Industrial IoT business. They're pretty stable. When we're talking about the abnormalities or that's the NOK 60. We have a quite steady revenue pool outside of the kind of creating amounts that we are listing on NOK 60 million here. Okay. It was just abnormal volatility in the power markets. If we were to see increased volatility in the power markets, you might see higher revenues in that region even in 2023. That is correct. we've, we could see it. of course, 2022 with the major events on the European continent, we're not expecting that to repeat again in 2023. Thanks. All right. A question from me then. A follow-up on Gard's question because you said the 50% SaaS target was not kind of specified for 2025. You, you used to have this 80% recurring revenue target as well. If you look at the growth rates needed for the recurring revenue target to be met, it's higher than the growth rate that you're guiding for 2023. Can you comment on that as well? Yeah. We do expect that we will have a higher growth rate on the recurring also to, for 2023 than our overall re-revenue growth. We're ticking, but we've not set a detailed target when we are about to kind of enter into 80% and kind of 50%. We're most concerned about us growing on recurring. That's the kind of part, and we expect to grow faster on recurring than kind of rest of the business also in 2023 and onwards. Is there any issues on the recurring revenue growth in 2023, which we need to kind of take into the context of 2024 and 2025? What I'm trying to understand is if recurring revenue growth in 2024 and 2025 should be different from 2023 for any reason. I think you said if you had a similar revenue growth in recurring in 2023 as 2022, that's around 15%. Yeah. Is the 15% a relevant growth rate on recurring for 2024 and 2025, or is it higher? I do think, like, we are saying that we're going to be higher on recurring than the kind of 15 that we grew. Yeah ... also in 2023. Hmm. We expect those ones to be also higher in 2024 and 2025. The reach will continue to grow, to be improved, as part of our transition that we are going to a more pure recurring revenue model. Okay. Well, that's pretty clear. You're saying on the margin that you're evaluating the trajectory. Yeah. Should we assume that, like in 2025, you have had this target of towards 30%? Has that changed, or is it just due to this volatility that we've seen that the path towards that has changed? The path towards 30 has changed and also the kind of timing. We do believe. Mm that, for 2025 there is large uptick if you want to reach 30%. We're definitely going to reach 30%. The timing and the pathway of going there is reviewed compared to kind of, what we invest in the rest of the business. All right. All right. Yeah, okay. I see there is a new question from Thomas. Go ahead. Thanks. You're obviously very successful in what you do, but the thing I don't quite understand is it sound... I imagine that much of your power price forecasting expertise comes from your long track record in Norway, where you have a high renewables mix, but it's mostly dominated by hydro, if I understand. As you move into different parts of Europe, the real, the big introduction of the volatility is from adding wind, which has got very different storage and forecasting characteristics compared to hydro. I just... I'd love for you to explain why your Nordic experience seems to be so relevant for the rest of Europe, and how your experience has translated to creating these successful tools for, you know, even Southern Europe. Great question. The simplest way of answering that question is that we've started with mastering hydro, and hydro is considered the, by far, most complex asset to operate and monetize, given all the different variables that you need to take into the optimization engine. With that as our strength, moving into continental Europe, understanding other energy types such as thermal, batteries, wind and PV, it's much more straightforward for us. When we talk about this German power major that we closed the contract with in Q4, that's exactly. That's a pure renewables player. Because we covered the entire value chain, we. There is no one else that can offer the same proposition. Yes, we are very deep in our competence on which energy types we can master, but also we are quite wide in our coverage along the value chain. I think that's that those are the two edges that we have competing with the rest of the market. Does that make sense? Great. Thank you. All right. I actually think that we are at the end of the scheduled slot that we had. I think we'll stop there and thank everyone for participating. Also thank you to Trond and Arnstein for the presentation and the Q&A. Thank you very much. Have a good day, everyone. Thank you. Thank you. Cheers. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.
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