I welcome everyone to Trustpower Results announcement for FY 2021. As I was saying earlier, I want you to look at it. Hopefully you've got an hour set aside in your diaries this morning to hopefully listen in and ask lots of questions. My name is David Prentice, I'm Chief Executive. Also with me this morning is Kevin Palmer. We've got a great presentation that we'll step through. Hopefully, you've all seen a copy of that already because it's uploaded onto the internet this morning. We'll try and get through this as quickly as possible. We're trying to do maybe 20, 25 minutes because we do want to leave as much time as possible at the end for you, of course, to ask questions. In terms of what we'll talk about today, like I say, we started, I'll get kicked off for the first 10 minutes, give a brief overview of the results, talk a little bit about the strategy and a bit of an update on that, and then hand over to Kevin. Kevin will step through a lot more detail around the generation, the retail performance, and of course, the FY 2021 financial results. I probably don't need to tell any of you this because we're all fairly used to Zoom calls now. Just as a brief reminder, there are two ways that you can ask questions. There's the Q&A feature where you can actually go online and type in your question. We've got a couple of people in the room here that are monitoring the questions, and we will answer those questions as they arise. If you would rather get an opportunity to speak, you can use the Raise Hand feature. We will actually see that and be able to release you and get you an opportunity to ask your question verbally. Either way is absolutely fine for us, but they are the two ways of doing that. Without any further ado, let's go into the results. Really at a high level, there's probably two or three themes that have come through in terms of the results this year. First of all, we are certainly sitting here fairly pleased this morning with the result at its highest level. Certainly a very strong performance in both generation and retail has contributed to that FY 2021 result. As I said, from a generation perspective, probably a couple of themes that have come through. It won't be as a surprise, I think, to anybody listening in here this morning. That, of course, is the fact that we've had pretty significant extended dry sequences which have impacted inflows nationwide, particularly over the last four months. I've got a slide in two slides' time that actually shows that graphically. However, I guess certainly from our perspective, we have got 25 hydro schemes around the country, which allows us that degree of diversity and resilience and allows us to manage the stewardship of that product despite the very difficult market situations that we find. We can do that through careful management of our portfolio, both through dispersed run-of-river and, of course, high storage volume generation. From a retail perspective, we've had a very good retail result this year. I'll come on to that in a minute. Probably three key themes in there. One is that obviously through the challenging conditions we had, particularly as a result of COVID, I think our commitment to a high value customer base has shown a great deal of resilience last year where our churn levels remained at pretty low levels. That in addition to our customer migration to high value tariff plans and the introduction of Mobile to our bundled product, saw a very good retail result, which I will step on to now. As you can see, this is a kind of 2021 snapshot, and I won't go through all of this in detail. I know that Kevin will pick out some of these points a little bit later, and particularly we can talk about that one in the top left corner in terms of the group NPAT result, which just probably requires a little bit of explanation. In terms of our headline result around EBITDA, our result was just north of NZD 200 million, which when compared to last year is up 7.2%. As I said, that is despite record low hydro inflows last year. Great deal of uncertainty around Tiwai and of course, dealing with COVID. As I said earlier, we're pretty happy with that result. Generation result, as I said, is pretty much flat on prior year, which in itself is a good result because you've got to remember that in prior year, that had a decrease of NZD 8 million, which we didn't have this year as a result of meter asset business that we sold. To actually have a result that was flat on prior year, certainly from our perspective is a pretty good outcome. Of course, from a retail perspective, our NPAT is up 50% to NZD 47 million. All of that led to the board being able to declare a final dividend of NZD 0.17, and that on top of the NZD 0.015 special dividend as a catch-up from last year versus a full year fully credited dividend of NZD 0.185 per share. You might notice a nice smiling photograph there of the board and senior leadership team of us. We've had quite a few changes over the past year. We had a couple of long-standing directors. Many of you will know who they are. Sam Knowles and Geoff Swier, they've been on the board for the last 14 years. They stepped down last year. Again, just like to take this opportunity on behalf of all of us around the board to thank them for their leadership and commitment over those 14 years. We're very lucky that we were joined on the board with David Gibson and Peter Coman, who replaced Sam and Geoff respectively. We've also had a few changes on the senior leadership team. Sara Broadhurst joined us in October 2020 last year, and Matt van Deventer and Paul Beaton were both promoted into the positions of General Manager Technology and Delivery and General Manager Markets respectively. Very pleased to see both of them join us on the senior leadership team. In terms of the strategic update, it's probably important at this stage just to pause and give a bit of an update on the strategic review. I'm presuming that most people listening in will be aware of the strategic review that we announced in late January this year. The review, of course, is aimed at testing market interest in the sale of our mass market retail business and, of course, exploring the business case for a standalone generation business. We announced a couple of weeks ago that we have entered into a due diligence phase with a number of interested parties, and we are still in that due diligence phase as we speak. Unfortunately, I'm sure some of you have got a few questions around that strategic review, I'm sure you'll also be acutely aware there's probably very little that we can say on the dynamics on that slide just now. Just a little bit about the weather. I mentioned earlier, we had to deal with some pretty adverse conditions this year. We thought that this slide effectively showed just how challenging that was. What the kind of blue bands show is our portfolio inflows, each band shows the average inflow over a number of years from 5% all the way up to 100. Of course, the red line there is the actual from last year. What that does is it shows that across our portfolio, that the actual inflow last year was really pretty much at the lower end of that scale. Indeed, at a couple of points, August last year and particularly February this year, the actual inflow has just about dropped below historic levels. Again, as I said earlier, what we are able to do because of the diversity of our portfolio around the country, we were actually able to achieve a very strong peaking factor from our diversified generation, which obviously resulted in an increase in the average cost of generation sold, which obviously then offsetting the reduction in volume that was available to us. Moving on slightly, just to talk about climate change here. There's obviously been a lot of interest, a lot of talk around climate change. A couple of things I want to make comment on. First of all, we were very pleased to see the draft advice report from the Climate Change Commission in March this year, and we have since put in detailed feedback on that. In general, Trustpower is fully in support of our march towards net zero by 2050. We remain concerned around the target of trying to pursue 100% renewable electricity target. There have been a number of reports that are credible the past two to three years on that. Indeed, the Climate Change Commission has also suggested that this should be an aspirational target more than anything else, and we are certainly very much of that view. Regardless of that, as I said, we are certainly of the view that if we are to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the electricity sector has to play a significant part in that because if we are going to seek to electrify the transport fleet, we are going to need approximately 50%-60% new electricity generation for the next 30 years. As I said, we all play a part in that. We do, and this is a key part of the feedback that we provided to the Climate Change Commission, what we do seek is a far more aligned regulatory settings which provide greater certainty and transparency around investment, and we don't believe that we have that at present. In terms of fresh water management TPM, again, under that broad category of society and regulatory change, look, probably, first of all, TPM, we've talked about this at length in prior sessions that we've had. Probably doesn't need any more information here today, other than to say that we are going, I'm sure everybody online is aware that we remain significantly concerned around the implications of this. We do not consider that the Authority's decision to approve the TPM guidelines was well justified, thus the action that we have taken with the EA, where we have sought judicial review. We are going through that process just now. We understand that will be heard later on this year. We look forward to getting some resolution on that. In terms of fresh water management, again, we're certainly acutely aware of the need to address fresh water issues in New Zealand. There's absolutely no doubt that a lot of work needs to be done around that. There needs to be a lot of understanding of various different users of that resource. All that we would ask as a generation provider is that we advocate for recognition that renewable energy generation plays a critical role in the transition to a low emissions economy. So hydro and water needs to be appropriately recognized and provided for. We remain concerned, certainly in some of the draft reforms that we have seen, that they will have significant implications on that. Nearly there before I hand over to Kevin. A couple more slides. With generation and strategy, probably Theo has probably talked about most of these things here. It's probably just worthwhile pointing out a couple of points. We've talked in the past around the fact that we have a excuse me, program of enhancements where we are targeting 67 GW h of additional output from our existing portfolio over the next five years, and lastly, made really good progress towards that over the last year, where we realized close on 10 GW h, which is great work. We've also taken some time this year to develop a full asset management policy and practice, which we've tried in the past before, but we realized that we probably needed to understand exactly what our asset is and what opportunities we actually have in that. We engaged some outside help to do that. I think you'll actually be able to see a lot more transparency around our asset management going forward from here. In terms of retail, as I said earlier, I think one of the key points from a retail perspective is the fact that we have got a high-quality customer base, which certainly helped us to a very, very competitive retail environment last year and led to very strong results in retail. Of course, as I said earlier, very pleased with Trustpower Mobile. I know Kevin will go into more detail tonight on this, so I won't go into much detail. Certainly the launch of Trustpower Mobile certainly has been a big success for us. Oh, sorry, this is the last slide. What this slide actually shows is last year we also took the time to update our strategic aspirations. I don't want to go into this in too much detail just now. The reality is we actually can't do that until we get the outcome of our strategic review. What we wanted to do is basically give everybody a bit of signpost as to where we're heading. We've come up with these, I guess what we are calling our strategic aspirations, and none of these will be a particular surprise to anybody listening in here. We have developed detailed underlying targets, which we will publish in due course, as I said, when we get the outcome of that strategic review published as well. We will start to report on our progress to those targets across all of those six aspirations. A key point of these is that they are meant to provide strategic tension, in terms of how we manage our business. Maybe that's all, that's enough for me. I'm sure there's a whole bunch of questions I'll answer a bit later, but I'll hand over to Kevin to delve into a wee bit more detail now. Kevin. Great. Thanks, David. My plan today is to talk to the two main segments of our business, which are generation and retail. I'll talk about firstly the operations, then I'll walk you right through the financial results. Starting with generation, this graph shows the controlled water storage for our generation schemes. The key for any hydro generator is to have highly available generation to generate at the optimum times. Availability is sort of measured in two things. One is having machines ready when you need them, and the second is having the fuel ready when you need it. This graph sort of demonstrates two of those key principles. You'll see in the first half of the year we drove our storage down a bit. That was responding to high prices in autumn last year, and also in preparation for some planned outages that were going to occur in spring and summer of this year or last year and this year. I'm going to talk about those planned outages in a minute. I guess the message that we want to leave you with here is that whilst our storage is a little bit below average, it's actually well-positioned for us, even despite having very poor hydrology this, as David just mentioned. These are the prices that we've been responding to in terms of generation. You can see the higher prices in June, July, dwarfed now by the extremely high prices we've seen over summer. I'll stop at a retail point here because many people know that Trustpower is a long retailer, i.e., we have about two times as many fixed price retail sales as we do generation capacity. It's important that you have a really robust risk management strategy when you come into an environment like this. Now, part of that is generation availability, but part of it is also synthetic hedge management policy. If you're sitting here now as a retailer without good risk management, that would be a very bad thing. Anyway, that's my little lecture on hedging. I'm going to move on and talk a little bit about the upgrade opportunities we have. This one here is an interesting one. Many people will know that our generation schemes are very old, some of them are 100 years old. This one had an upgrade. We already had an upgrade in the '1960s and '1970s, where essentially a concrete block wall was added to the top of the dam to make it higher. We did very detailed seismic testing on that. Although the probability of the wall falling down was incredibly low, we felt it was a risk that we couldn't take. We have now dismantled that add-on, and reversed back to the original size dam that was built in the early 1900s. The second upgrade is our Cobb upgrade. This is replacement of the runners. We have runners that look similar, I guess, in terms of shape and size, but are actually far better in terms of their reliability and sustainability. This is a big job, and to do it safely and on time and on budget is a credit to the team. Moving on to retail now. David spoke earlier about Mobile. You can see the graph here. Probably launching in the middle of COVID was not in our business case, nevertheless, we did. As a result, we sort of launched Mobile with fries with that, for brunch. As in, we have offered it up as a proposition to people we've already talking to about telco and electricity. To date, we have received nearly 8,000. We'll be doing our 10,000 celebrations soon. It is a credit. We will look to use Mobile as an acquisition strategy in itself in 2021. That's a new product. The strategy of bundling is we can still remain successful. Our customer size in terms of total number of customers is around the same, the share of wallet has improved significantly as we're growing our telco penetration into our customer base. You can see that our regional mix has gone. We have much higher New True penetration than we would have done five or six years ago. Churn. Our churn in general is low, below average for the market, but churn in bundled areas is still lower than churn for energy-only customers. That is a strategic plan that we have invested on in our retail business. I guess as everyone will know, COVID created an opportunity to demonstrate customer experience excellence. For us, we reaped the benefit of years of effort in terms of digitization. 75% of our contacts are handled without a human intervention, so purely digital. What that meant in COVID was that we could, our team, our human team, metro focused on answering the calls that matter, the times that matter. There was a lot of increase in terms of hardship. Of course, people who had never, ever been on a benefit before found themselves on a benefit. Having a proactive approach and the availability of people to do that, was a great thing in terms of customer response and also in terms of, from a financial perspective, actually paying their bills. The next slide here is about customer voice, about us listening to our customers, responding to their views, and tweaking our proposition. We think that this program ongoing will drive significant increase in customer satisfaction. Right. Onto the money. This is an overview of the whole company one year to the next. You can see we've gone from EBITDA of NZD 186 to EBITDA of NZD 200, just with the current period considering the challenges of hydrology and COVID that we faced during the year. I've got detailed slides on generation and retail, so I won't go into anything here, but I will talk briefly about the net profit after tax result that David mentioned earlier. One of the opportunities that accounting standards present to us is the ability to fair value our financial hedges. Some of the fair value goes through the balance sheet, and some of it goes through the profit. Interesting for us this year, about half of it, all the upside ones went through the reserves and balance sheet, and all the downside went through the profit. Sorry. How am I going to explain this? I don't really know if I can explain the accounting standards or the rationale behind that. Nevertheless, what we've done to help people out is we've created this thing called underlying earnings, which is the net profit after tax, where we've taken out these sort of one-off unusual things. What you can see there is that we've actually had a significant uplift in our underlying earnings. We're now at NZD 94 million underlying each year, which is more reflective of the overall EBITDA uplift. My recommendation. Moving on. Most of the uplift that we've seen in EBITDA has been driven by our retail business. We've had a reduction in net position costs mainly because we stopped campaigning during COVID. We can see that we've got a good uplift in electricity gross profit, which is especially pleasing because when you see on the next slide, you will see that the generation business, which sells all of its output to retail, has had a price increase that has been passed through. We have been able to successfully manage that increase. Telco gross profit, it is a growth area, both with customers using more and increasing to higher value programs, but also just having more telco customers. Here we go. Generation. This is line all NZD 154-NZD 154, this is actually a very positive result because NZD 17.8 million of that was the business that we sold the year before. So we are actually looking at a NZD 17.8 million increase overall, mainly driven by increased price and offset by the reduced volume because of the hydrology. A lot of that price has been passed through to the retail business. Final dividend. As I said, we've declared an ordinary dividend of NZD 0.17, topped up on a special of NZD 0.015, which is the catch up on the NZD 0.015 reduction last year. This is a BAU approach. We will update the market with a revised dividend approach if the strategic review that we're currently undergoing results in the sale of the retail business. Until then, our dividend policy remains unchanged. Overall, tip capital management, we feel like we're in a good place. We are slightly higher this year because we had to put margin calls on the ASX futures for our sales. Those should unwind over the next few months, and our gearing ratio will go closer down towards 3x EBITDA. We've got some good long-term debt that we'll be looking to refinance at zero to one years as part of an ongoing treasury policy that will obviously impact upon the strategic review. Normally we would give guidance on our profit and our CapEx, but this year, because of the strategic review, that will become too hard. We're expecting to announce results of the strategic review in the next month or two, and at that time we'll give detailed guidance on profit and dividends and CapEx. All right. That's the end of the scheduled presentation. I'll just pull up the slide on how to ask questions, and I think we can probably open it up. Okay. I see a phone ringing, phone number put their hand up. I'm going to allow you to talk. If you are 930, et cetera. The fact that you're putting your hand up, can you hear us and talk? Morning all. It's Grant Swan here. Can you hear me? Yes, we can Grant. How are you? Hi, guys. Let me jump straight into questions. Just in terms of your retail price points, it appears as though you guys have struggled to get through price increases. Is this correct, and why is it contrary to what everybody else is getting through? I'm not sure that it is correct. In the FY 2021 year, the one that we're reviewing, there were significant reductions in costs from the distribution companies, which we have passed through to our consumers, as everyone should, I think. We've adjusted our price for the increased wholesale prices. The net of those two in some areas may have resulted in small reductions and in other areas will have resulted in increases. We put through our price changes for this year, which we think are sufficient to pass through the increase in wholesale costs. I'm feeling quite comfortable about our price increases, and I think that the increase in gross margin that we saw from the retail business is a testament to that. Okay. Can I just continue on that, in terms of your slide on page 43, in terms of mass market netback, it would appear as though the net number's gone from 117 down to 113. Either you didn't get net prices through or your cost of serve's gone through the roof. Can you talk to that? Yeah. Our cost of serve definitely hasn't gone through the roof. It may just be a customer mix thing, Grant. I can't answer that, sorry, I'll get back to you. Okay, thanks. Just to continue on that theme. If you've gone from 117 to 113 with net debt and your average retail volume hasn't changed much from 1,800 odd gigawatt hours, it would imply, with your ASX contribution in terms of transfer price, which has gone up from about NZD 95 to about NZD 102. Actually, the mass market contribution's gone from about NZD 40 million, according to those calculations on that page, to about NZD 18 million. Your retail contribution's gone up. Where's that NZD 20 million been absorbed to give you a 20 plus? From a minus NZD 20 from mass market and you're actually reporting retail up NZD 20 million. Is there something going on in the transfer pricing? No. No, there isn't. The transfer price has definitely gone up. That's driven the increase in the generation business returns. I think there's something going missing in the math there. It may be something to do with C&I business driving the change in the net debt. I just can't answer that on the phone. Sorry, Grant, but I'll get back to you on it. Fantastic. Just moving on to another subject. You've got all these growth opportunities coming up. Can you talk a bit about it? Is it just in wind? Is there something in hydro somewhere? Or are you going to reveal that at a later date? Yeah. Grant, it probably won't come as any surprise that some of the opportunities we are looking at present are fairly confidential. We're not in a position today to really give any more information or details around those. In terms of answering your question, look, we don't have a fixed view on where those opportunities will come from. Other than, of course, they will be from renewable sources. Certainly, whether that's wind, whether that's tidal, whether that's geothermal, we are fairly open to any opportunities. Certainly from a wind perspective, that's certainly something that we're having a very close look at now. Can't really answer that question, Grant, but certainly as we are able to, we will update the market. Okay. Thanks very much. Thanks for the answers. Thanks, Grant. Great. Okay, I've got a couple of questions on the Q&A then. The first one is, how does your target debt compete with our target of 2.5 before change post NZAS contract extension and the strategic review? The strategic review at this stage is not impacting our debt targets because it's still a review. Nevertheless, I think the question might have been if we actually were to sell the retail business. That's obviously a discussion which is ongoing and it's of key importance for the board, and we will announce when we sell it, our debt strategy. In general, the board's view is that we will continue to be a prudent debt manager consistent with a listed entity. It's probable that that range will be similar. NZAS extension, well, that's likely to have a timing difference between for a vertically integrated business where we may have now received higher returns for our generation business, but we need to pass those through to retail. I don't see that as changing our gearing structure, albeit maybe some volatility in the debt, but that's the way it is. The second one is, can you give us a view on the timing of the strategic review? I guess the answer to that is we'd all like it to be quick, but we're all keen to do it right as well. The process is complex and detailed, but we would expect to be in the next six-plus or one to two months. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure everybody's Yes, I think that's probably all we can say. All we can say at present. Hopefully closer to the bottom end of that rather than the two months. I think these things can be somewhat dynamic, especially when we're dealing with a number of parties. I think somewhere between one and two months before we're able to come back to the market with an update is about right. The next question is, current hydro storage is down versus prior to the current period. Does that mean that generations are going to be down again then before FY 2022? If someone has a crystal ball, that would be fantastic. I'd certainly love that. Who knows? Who knows is the answer. It's still very difficult to predict these things, but I think what we can say with some surety is that to kind of state the obvious, if we don't get some fairly significant hydro inflows over the next four to six weeks, certainly this winter is going to be tricky enough. Let alone then coming into a potentially dry spring and dry summer and then having to deal with the same thing again next year. Too early to say that at present, but certainly I guess the question of a dry 2022 is probably, in my head, is as important as a dry 2021 with respect to our winter period. Let's just pray for rain. Certainly in Tauranga, it's not looking good down south. Of course, the beautiful weather, the sun's back out anyway. I probably answered that question, but gives you a bit of flavor anyway. Just to supplement it. Every year we require it to rain to meet our hydro targets. That's not a question of just keeping our storage at the minimum. We just have to rain, just as everyone. If it rains, we could easily generate more. If it doesn't, then that's it. Sterilize. Not brilliant. Let's move on. This question is, when you think about how we manage gas and why that impacted our FY 2021 margin. Gas. We manage gas by buying forward, like I guess everyone does. We are only a retailer of gas, so we don't have any capacity to produce our own. This year we got probably slightly more gas customers than we were anticipating and ended up buying a bit on the spot, and some of our forward contracts renewed at higher values than they had been in the past. You've seen a sort of temporary drop in our gross margin for gas. We would expect that there will be a need for the whole market to pass through these increased wholesale costs, and we would expect to participate in that. We're expecting that gas gross margin will normalize at some point in time. The next one is, "It looks like there was a drop in fixed price C&I and an increase in spot price. Can you talk about our strategy here? Should we expect a continuation of that theme?" There's two things here. The spot price, our customers are a pass-through, so we buy on spot for them and pass through at spot. Obviously, for those customers in the last few months, those bills have been quite material, there'll be a significant increase in spot revenue because of higher wholesale prices, both early in the year and later in the year. Will that continue? Well, that depends on the higher wholesale prices, the margin on those things, our margin won't be affected by that. In terms of fixed price sales, our strategy is to only sell where we can make a margin. That means that we enter into competitive RFP processes for C&I customers. If we win, we know we're going to make a margin. If we don't, what we do is we reduce the purchases from third-party suppliers. You'll see in our accounts that our volumes acquired from third-party participants has reduced, roughly in line with the drop in C&I sales. Our strategy will be to continue to secure supply and then try and sell ahead of margin in the C&I business. In general, our own generation is just to support the fixed market business. Right. Okay. I was looking to sort of pause here because there are no more open questions, and there's no one with their hand up to ask a question. I think what we'll do is just pause for a couple more minutes. If we don't get anything, we'll draw the webinar to a close then. Could solar PV be an option for Manawa Energy generation expansion? Yes. Yes, of course. I think the interesting thing with solar is that we're seeing a declining cost in the technology and the price point of acquiring it. We would expect that it's a few years away, although we do see people investing in solar farms at the moment. Solar is definitely a technology that we are reviewing and pursuing. I think as there have been no more open questions, and we're not just looking across, and there's none popping up, and we have been going for 45 minutes anyway, and I'm talking slowly at the moment just in case any last-minute questions come through, but it's still looking blank. I think what we will do is probably draw it to a close. Thank you all very much for dialing in tonight. Thanks for your questions. Thanks for listening. Thanks for engaging. I'm sure we will be seeing some of you, as Kevin and I have a number of meetings set up tomorrow in Auckland and Wellington, so look forward to catching up and discussing the results in more detail. For now, I think we'll call this closed today. Thank you all very much. Have a great rest of your day. Cheers.
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