Hi, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Agnieszka Dowżycka. I'm in charge of investor relations at Santander Bank Polska. Welcome, everyone, to the presentation of the results of Santander Bank Polska after the third quarter of 2023. This presentation will be conducted by Michał Gajewski, CEO, and Maciej Reluga, CFO of the bank. We're here with Wojciech Skalski, financial controller. Before we start the presentation, please let me remind you that you can ask questions online, or you can also send them to me directly. The presentation is available at the website of Santander Bank Polska Investor Relations. Michał, over to you. Hi again. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the presentation of the results of Santander Bank Polska after the first quarter of 2023. Let me start by saying that we're consistently delivering our mission, that is to help customers prosper. As you will shortly see, this is reflected in our results. The results confirm that our business model is robust, and we are delivering as planned. As at the end of September, our gross income, our gross profit was PLN 5.3 billion. The levies over that time is, and it's a significant item. Those levies totaled PLN 2 billion, and that includes CIT, PLN 1.4 billion, and banking tax, PLN 587 million. The regulatory burden was an additional PLN 203 million. After three quarters, our net profit is PLN 3.85 billion, and in quarter three itself, it was PLN 1.5 billion. Let us move on to the slides now. As a group, we serve over 7.5 million customers, out of which 4.26 million are digital customers. In SBP itself, we have over 5.8 million customers. That includes 3.05 million digital customers. Year-on-year, we see that number go up 7%. When it comes to app users, the increase is of 14%. Customer deposits over PLN 210 billion, that's up 11% year-on-year. Gross loans, up 3% year-on-year, up to PLN 164 billion. Assets, up 6%, up to PLN 278 billion. Customer funds, PLN 227 billion, that's up 12% year-on-year. Slide 8 now. Just very shortly, I'll be talking about the performance in detail later. So, the group's net profit for the first nine months is PLN 3.8 billion. Net interest income is over PLN 9.7 billion. That's up by 42% year-on-year. That's net of the credit holidays effect. Sorry. If we exclude the credit holidays effect in quarter three, the increase is of 19% year-on-year. The next fee income was over PLN 2 billion. That's up 3% year-on-year. Total income was PLN 11.8 billion. That's up 33% year-on-year. Solid capital position, group TCR, 20.61%. For the bank, it was 23.96%. Tier 1 was 19.14%. For the bank itself, it was 22.25%. Very important information for the analyst group. Group's return on equity was 19.3%. Going forward to slide 10, shortly about the customers. 3.5 million digitally active customers, including 3.1 million retail customers, 7% more year-on-year. We have 2.7 million customers actively using the application. The number of mobile payments is also going up. On slides 11 and 12, we're presenting the new offer and how we support our customers. Let me draw your attention to three highlights. The first thing is that we rolled out a new application. In our opinion, in the feedback we get from the customers, also, the app is more intuitive, more user-friendly, and as you know, we are strongly focusing on improving our customers' experience. Almost 2.6 million customers have migrated to the new app. We also implemented a BLIK feature for business customers in the app. That's for sole traders.... important change for corporate. We have instant payments in euros, it takes less than 10 seconds to make them. Let's talk about the business dynamics. In retail banking, we maintain 5.8 million individual accounts. This is 6% more than last year. In quarter three, we opened 132,000 personal accounts. That is 25% more compared to the previous quarter. Year on year, the number of personal accounts in PLN went up. It also the increase was also observed in the FX accounts. In terms of loans in the retail segment, mortgage loans sales PLN 2.4 billion, that is 45% higher than in the previous quarter. Overall, over nine months, we sold PLN 4.8 billion worth of mortgage loans. We clearly see customer preference in terms of the fixed rate. In the new production, the share of fixed rate loans were 85%, that's in the third quarter. At the moment, in the total mortgage portfolio, the share of fixed rate loans at the end of September, that share was 25.6%. Cash loan sales in quarter three was PLN 2.4 billion, that's up 3% year-on-year. We see cash loan sales is on the rise, especially in the digital channels. So here we're observing growing dynamics. More and more customers choose that channel. TFI net sales in the third quarter was PLN 1.2 billion. Retail assets managed by Santander TFI at the end, at the end of quarter three were PLN 16.7 billion. Our market share is rising, going up to 10.6%. In total, over nine months, net sales from investment funds were PLN 3.1 billion. In SMEs, we opened 15,500 business accounts, half of them were opened in the digital channels. More and more customers choose that way of opening accounts. We opened over 51,000 SME accounts. In terms of loans, we have an increase here by 11% year-on-year, more or less comparable to what we saw in the previous quarter. Business banking, good results, good performance. We see growth on the assets and deposits side, higher profitability in transactional banking. And in what refers to investment and corporate banking, we see growing revenues from trade finance and the credit market. So we will now be moving to talk about the balance sheet items, growth, loans. As I've mentioned, we see a growth here of 3% to PLN 164 billion. I've talked already about retail and SME. In SME, that growth is 4%, for corporate, that's 18%. Leasing, that's an increase of 10% year-on-year to almost PLN 14 billion. In factoring, we have a significant increase, 11%. Customer funds, 11% growth year-on-year, PLN 210 billion+. So quarter-on-quarter, they increased by 5%, and the group can boast of excellent liquidity. The consolidated LCR was 206%. So the group, for the bank alone, it was 180.45%. Let us move to slide 17, the profit and loss account. The net interest income was PLN 3.4 billion, which was 6% higher quarter-on-quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the interest income grew by 6%, while the interest expense grew by 5%. As you can see on the slide, they reported annualized net interest margin in quarter three was 5.37%, and as we've expected, it remains flat on the previous quarter. The net fee and commission income, that's slide 18. It grew by 3% year-on-year and totaled PLN 2 billion+. Year-on-year, we saw good performance when it comes to credit fees, insurance fees, and FX fees. In quarter three, there's net fee and commission income was only slightly lower than in the previous quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, we saw really good performance when it comes to the account fees, insurance and leasing fees. Let us move to the next slide. Number 19, income. In total, the income was PLN 11.8 billion, which represents the growth of 33% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter. And as I've already mentioned, this is the follow-up of good performance under the interest and fee income lines. The income other operations. Well, let me tell you a couple of words about our activities taken to make settlements with the mortgage borrowers. The cost to the group of those settlements was PLN 302 million, and in quarter three alone, that was PLN 35 million. Actually, by September, we signed 7.3 thousand settlements, and that represents nearly one-fourth of the active Swiss franc portfolio. And now costs. They reduced, and the reason is because we had lower contributions to the Banking Guarantee Fund and the fact that in 2022, we posted substantial contributions to the Institutional Protection Scheme, which were PLN 446 million. If we exclude the regulatory levies, the cost increased by 13% year-on-year, driven by inflation, salary adjustments and IT costs. Staff costs increased by 22%, which reflects the change in remuneration and the cost of the long-term incentive scheme that we launched in quarter one this year. In Santander Consumer Bank, the operating costs increased by 7% in quarter three year-on-year. Staff costs increased by 5% and then net by 4%. Despite the growth in costs, the cost to income ratio for the group was really good. It is below 30%. Let me just remind you that last year it was 41.9%. So we can see that we take care of cost discipline all the time. Provisions. On the consolidated basis, the provisions totaled PLN 894 million on a consolidated basis, and they were higher than a year ago. This is driven by the economic situation and our condition and the condition of our loan portfolio. The cost of risk for 12 months after three quarters was 8.77%. What were the key factors impacting the provision line? The first one is the continuing slight, continuing slightly higher delinquencies in the retail portfolio. The other factor was the stable level of delinquencies and downgrades to the NPL in the SME portfolio. In the corporate portfolio, we saw that overall, there were some downgrades of customers from stage to the stage two and three. We also saw part of the non-performing portfolio worth PLN 125 million in principal, and that had a positive impact on our performance of $22 million. The NPL coverage ratio is a bit higher because it is 59.1% at the moment. The banking tax and the regulatory costs vary, make varies as I said before. PLN 1.4 billion in corporate income tax, nearly PLN 600 million in banking tax, plus the regulatory costs of PLN 203 million zlotys. So wrapping it up, another good quarter for the bank. We improved our net interest income, and we improved our income stream. We can see that our sales performance and business performance is really good, and that, of course, translates into our bottom line. We keep focusing on taking action to help our customers prosper, to withstand financial effects. We will be continuously upgrading our mobile application that we just introduced. So our performance confirms that our business model is sound. So thank you very much, and now the floor is yours. Okay, let me start with the questions we already got. So first of all, we have questions about dividend, NII, and in the impact of interest rate cuts… and the impact of the new proposal for the credit holidays, as well as our judgment of the post-parliamentary election environment. Well, we always underline that we have a significant capital surplus over PLN 12 billion. So even taking into account most negative or scenario, adverse scenarios in terms of Swiss francs or in terms of growth, growth financing, even taking into account all the risks, potential risks, our capital position is solid, and we are determined to share the dividends with the shareholders. We are in talks with the regulator at the moment. There is no news here that we could share with you, but we are fully determined in the process. We have the capital surplus, we have the dividend fund, as you know, and we will continue the talks with the regulators. In terms of the Credit Holidays, I wouldn't like to talk about uncertainties. There are a lot of question marks here. This is just a proposal, and it was put forward by the current government. We are fully convinced that the Borrower Support Fund, that's the way to go to help the borrowers in distress. This is a fair proposal with fair criteria in terms of remuneration and wages. As you know, a lot of those borrowers that applied for Credit Holidays in the past, they made overpayments, so they could have easily repaid their debt without having to avail of the Credit Holidays. So we want to help those borrowers who actually need help, the borrowers in distress. That's all about Credit Holidays. The post-recent election, the environment around the bank, no, we don't want to enter into the political issue. I think we have proved that we can operate in any environment. I believe in the skill of my well-qualified team. That brings the fact we're not focusing on the expectations towards politicians. There are a few other questions about the net interest income, and I'll try to answer them. There are more questions about Swiss francs, about the pace of making settlements and repaid loans as well. One is on net interest margin, and in the report, we provided the impact of the first cut by 75 bps. Now, it's 100 bps. So the question is about our sensitivity. But let me just remind you that in the same report, we already provided the sensitivity to the movement by 100 bps over a 12-month horizon. At that time, it was estimated from PLN 500 million-PLN 700 million loss. That is why, after the next cut by 25 basis points, we have not issued the report because we deemed that we provided the figures in the report. And the other question, about, what is the impact on the quarter four performance given the cut? And there is also the question whether the net interest income takes into account of any positive effects of hedging. Can they be quantified? So I will not quantify them, but as earlier been said, and today we told you that there is some information that can actually figure out how much it can be. As I said before, the sensitivity to interest rates was high when the interest rate hike cycle started. Then when the hike ceased, then the sensitivity was gradually confined. So of course, the effects of that are there. Recently, I also mentioned that the share of fixed and floating rate loans changes. Two years ago, it was floating to fixed 95 to 5, and now we have fixed rate loans roughly at 30%. So of course, all that fluctuates depending on the market conditions. This is the effect of both higher sales with the fixed rate, but also we are continuing having part of our balance sheet, and we provide this sensitivity to the movement by high, by 100 basis points to the on a constant balance sheet basis. And of course, you can estimate how much it can grow. We've been growing quarter three, and then some actions are neutralized that how quickly are we going to reprice our asset side of the balance sheet? We've already mentioned that some time ago. On the credit side, well, we don't have many loans based on six month WIBOR. Usually, it's a three or one month WIBOR. The three month WIBOR is just for mortgages. And that's what we are having primarily. So when it comes to loans between one and three months, the split is even with some share of loans based on six months WIBOR. So there will be repricing over those time horizons. If we take the whole balance sheet, then share of the products based on six months WIBOR is growing. So then we will not actually be wrong if we say that this is really the reprice along with the repricins of one month, three months and six months products. And that's probably it. If, for anything else, when it comes to details, please ask. I think that the details we provide led us to forecast the interest income. We do not really give any guidance from our side. However, since we're going to be in quarter four or in the subsequent quarter, as some questions go, but we don't give. We do not share such figures, but we actually share information about the sensitivities on the liability side of the balance sheet. Of course, we are proactive, and we are changing the deposit pricing, and we made it quite quickly in response to the interest rate cuts, within days, if not hours. Actually, we can say that we've been expecting the cut, maybe not, to a certain extent. So we reversed the deposit curve before six months, three months deposits. We actually reduced the interest rate on these deposits accordingly. There is another question referring to that theme about our outlook. But there will be another meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. There will be new projections for the GDP, and we think that there might be another cut still this year in November. And then we envisage that the changes will stop for a couple of months, because we think that the inflation will be declining quickly to the targeted level. So it will be more difficult to cut rates. Of course, the first step is easing when it comes to the inflation, but then it will be more difficult. So this is our outlook for the interest rates. But of course, we take into account what the market is pricing in, and we take this into account in our operations. So let me focus on that. Now let me answer the questions about Swiss francs. Let me remind you that we have only 8.4 settlements signed in the group, 7.3 thousand in the bank. And as we are writing in the report, the cost of settlements this year has been for PLN 300 million. We propose the settlements to the majority of our customers, both those who filed the lawsuits against us and those who have not. So we signed settlements covering one fourth of the active Swiss francs portfolio. We started the whole process in 2022, actually towards the end of 2021, and our strategy that we adopted is still being pursued, and it is based on the recommendations from the Chairman of the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority, KNF. And we treat our customers in the same way, whether they have or Swiss franc loans. We think that the proposal of the KNF chairman is a fair one in social terms, and we are not changing our approach. We are proposing what is recommended by the chairman of the KNF. We haven't seen any major growth in balance sheets. At the same time, we can observe the first rulings, the decisions of the regional courts or Supreme Court, that the banks' claims warranted, when it comes to the unlawful enrichment. And this is about the surplus account compared to the paid-out capital. And we think these are the first positive decisions, which actually disrupt this ruling practice applied by common courts so far. But it will take time before the common courts take notice of that. But this confirms that, that the statement that the banks are not entitled for any remuneration for the capital paid out, say that, there is a different stance, that the banks might be entitled, so it's favorable. So we keep thinking that settlement is better than the court case litigation. We will be pursuing our two strategies in synergy. Okay, I'm looking at the questions. I'm trying to combine, ones that are similar. We have more questions about the dividends, but, and about credit holidays, but we've already answered those. There's an interesting question I don't have an answer for here on paper: What is the sensitivity of credit moratoria to interest rate cuts by 100 basis points? I can, however, come back with that information after I double-check it. I think it's worth saying, I already, you know, I mentioned the Borrower Support Fund, and I think that despite the fact that in the third quarter we see an increase in the applications for the Borrower Support Fund, and we know that because of the Credit Holidays, people actually decided not to apply for this fund. So if we assume the Credit Holidays are not introduced, the team is not introduced, we forecast the number of applications to the Borrower Support Fund will go up. It offers aid to those borrowers who experience financial problems. So, we hope there will be more applications for the Borrower Support Fund than for Credit Holidays. Net trading and revaluation income, why was this high and higher than in the second quarter? In the second quarter, it was actually much higher than in the first quarter. Was much lower than in the first quarter. We see there some one-off there and, income from and some FX income. Operating costs. There is a question about the amount. We have one is there, around, PLN 50 million, as far as I remember. There are more questions coming in about the dividend moratoria, the coverage in terms of number and value. We were talking about the moratoria. Not much higher than what we gave you at the beginning, then we updated our estimates. At the end of 2020... 64.7, that's volume-wise. So 36.9, and then four-- no, sorry, that's 63.9, then 64.7.... the effect of the wages review. Do you see the effect and the outlook for operating costs for 2024? Our expectations here, what can we say? We'll, we'll watch the environment. We hope it will be better in terms of CPI. But as we know, in the cost, you know, this effect is lagging. In 2023, the CPI is going up, but it's still high. So in terms of the macro environment, we expect it will be favorable. The labor market will not change. There will be wage pressure, hence our expectation in terms of the CPI. But we're disciplined, we're well disciplined when it comes to costs wherever we can. And, costs in 2024 will be a combination to all the factors that I've mentioned. And let's talk about it in January when we present the results after the fourth quarter of this year. There is a question about the cost of credit risk considering our macro outlook. So the disclaimer here is that what we're talking about, the credit risk cost, you know, it had been verified positively. The financial standing of our customers was good, much better than we had predicted at the beginning of the year, because we were entering a recession with high CPI and high interest rates. So we can see that our customers managed this environment. And while our outlook for the macro environment is positive, we see signs of revival because of the consumption, because of rising investment. The only risk I would say that's important for the exporters is the situation in Germany and the outlook for the German economy. But the interest rates have lowered CPI. The cost of risk, I think taking that into consideration, we can be optimistic. I think it could actually go down. This effect could be delayed. However, as we have said, there were a few cases in the first quarter, in the corporate segment, that were negative, but we remain optimistic in terms of 2024, looking at our macro forecast. There was a question about the cost of settlements. We've never really provided that separately for consumer, but we will have that checked. We have a number of settlements. That's what we provide for the bank, PLN 7,008.4 for the group. But it takes months, but we are able to get this right. Have you seen any growth in the costs of claims and complaints related to consumer loans and the free of charge loans? Claims and complaints, related to consumer loans and the issue of free of charge loans, and the ideas that some law firms have. We haven't seen really any response from customers, but we will have that analyzed thoroughly. There is another question about the growing number of requests for support from the Borrower Support Fund. Let me check the answer to that. Give me a second. I've mentioned that in Q3, there was some increase when it comes to the request for support from the Borrower Support Fund. And this growth was from 1,663 to more than 1,700 requests, and this is up to the value of PLN 512 million. But the utilization so far has been small, and we've been taking into account that once the payment holiday solution is not available, then the customers who have problems with the repayment will lead to the growth in the number of requests for support from that fund. There is a question that I don't really know an answer from the top of my head. What is the share of the loan with the value over 50,000 is something that we have to check. And probably the last question, and I'm assuming that as we address all the previous questions, is there any headroom for reducing the manpower? I would say that we do not envisage any downsizing, any actions like that. The stock costs, of course, represent an important element of the total cost for the group. But we've been operating very effectively as a group and, including the, our operations as a bank. So we have not been thinking about any actions like that. Agnieszka, is there anything else that is next or? Well, there is one more question about the decline in capital ratios for the group quarter-on-quarter. Well, I think this is the effect of the growth in the numerator and the capital in the denominator. So these are all the questions. I haven't received any more. And I think that we might be closing our meeting today. Thank you so much, and see you the next time, maybe see you in reality at the end of January. There will be a conference about our performance, about quarter. So performance until the end of February, we will issue our annual returns. Goodbye!
Loading workspace