Welcome to CGD's conference call. This call follows the first nine months 2021 results release, which took place yesterday. It is possible to follow the results presentation from the CGD website. The CFO, Mr. José de Brito, and the Head of IR, Mr. Nuno Pereira, will guide you through the presentation. A Q&A session will follow. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm your Investor Relations, Nuno Pereira, and I want to thank you for participating in our conference call today. To guide you through the third quarter results for Caixa Geral de Depósitos, I will hand you over now to our CFO, Maria João Carioca. Thank you. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining this call. I will guide you through our third quarter results presentation, which was released yesterday. I will go briefly through the several slides and then to leave some space for the Q&A session. For that, I will start in slide four, where we have the main highlights for this Q3. Where we achieve a net income of EUR 429 million, which translates in a return on equity of 6.9% and represents an increase in net income of 9.4% over the same period in 2020. Also important to mention that we recently approved the payment of an extraordinary dividend in the amount of EUR 300 million, which we expect to be paid before the year ends, probably still in the month of November. Even after the deduction of this extraordinary dividend, and including the net income for these three quarters of 2021, we continue to have very solid capital ratios with our CET1 reaching to 18.2% and our total capital ratio reaching 20.8%. This is, as we will see, significantly above not only the Portuguese average, but even compares very well with European banking average. We continue to have a very strong performance in terms of commercial activity, with a significant growth in terms of loans to corporates and businesses, an increase of 5.9%. Especially in terms of new mortgage loans, where we have the best quarter since several years. It allows CGD to reach market share above 24% in terms of new production. Also important, our NPL ratio drops below three percent mark. It's the first time for the last 10 years. We achieve an NPL ratio of 2.8%, so increasing the asset quality. Also important, we continue to increase the coverage by the impairments, which reaches 68% in the end of the Q3. This compares with a coverage level of 44.2% for the European banking system. In terms of efficiency, we continue to have a good performance. Operating costs come down 1.6%. This is especially important after the cost reduction that we achieved in the previous four years under the scope of the previous strategic plan. We also highlight the most recent rating upgraded by Moody's, the second in a row in the last four months. Also the change of the outlook by Fitch from negative to positive, which gave us expectations to also have a rating upgrade in the near future. The final highlight is about our recent debt issuance of a senior preferred sustainable bond, where we achieve a coupon of 3/8, the lowest coupon ever achieved by CGD in a capital market transaction. Moving to slide five, we just present where we stand in terms of rating levels. As you can see by Moody's, we are at the same level as the Portuguese Republic, and at the same level as the best ranked banks operating in Portugal. In Fitch, we are still having two notches for the Portuguese Republic, which we expect to close this gap in the following years. Moving to slide six, we continue to strengthen our leadership in the domestic market. We are market leaders in several business lines, and in some cases we were able even to reinforce our market shares. As an overall picture, I think this is pretty much similar to what we have in the end of the first half, in our last presentation. The following three slides are about our digital platforms. We continue to grow in digital. I think this is the same trend with the majority of the banks in Portugal. We increased the number of customers that use regularly our digital platforms in nine percent. The number of transactions increased by 21%. The number of new businesses also have a significant growth, especially linked to the placement of investment funds and openings of online accounts and also consumer credit loans. I will ask you to move to slide 10, where we present again, our sustainability strategy, which is underpinning five main drivers: sustainable and inclusive finance, management of climate risk, equity, digital and financial inclusion, transparent governance models and a proper disclosure of sustainability information. There's nothing new here. What is new is in slide 11, where we highlight two significant developments in this previous quarter. The first one is what I have already mentioned, is the first sustainable bond issuance from a Portuguese bank, our recent senior preferred bond. The second one is that we already have in place an ESG rating model for all our corporate clients, covering all business sectors. This is a very important internal development. Of course, it still needs to be fine-tuning, but it is already in production, and we are already including the ESG rating in our credit decisions. Finally, on slide 12, we have also some initiatives linked to social inclusion, business transformation and gender equality. I won't bother you with the details as this is self-explanatory. Moving to the financial results on slide 13, we have here the quarterly evolution of our net income. In this Q3 of 2021, we achieved a net income of EUR 135 million. If we exclude non-recurrent results, it would have been EUR 144 million, which is precisely the same level of the Q3 of 2020, but with different dynamics in the several items, as we will see. In terms of net income, if we exclude the non-recurrent items, we would stand up with EUR 394 million, which represents a return on equity of 6.4%. Not a big difference between the global net income and this recurrent net income. Moving to slide 14, where we have just the core recurrent operating income, which means that we just include the net interest margin, net fees and commissions, less the operating costs. We can see that the performance over the same period of last year is more or less stable, but more important is that we are recovering since the Q1 of 2021, even if we continue to be under pressure in terms of net interest margin. This more recent evolution is very positive, and we expect this trend to continue for the following quarters. Passing to slide 15, where we have precisely the evolution of the net interest income. As you can see on the left, the left-hand chart, our net interest margin is in a positive trend since the first quarter of this year. In terms of the domestic activity, it continues to go down, with at a lower pace, which makes us believe that we might have reached the bottom in terms of net interest income in the domestic activity. This is precisely because of the impact of the Euribor rates in the repricing of the loan books. As we have Euribor rates pretty much stable for the last 12 months, we strongly believe that we won't have additional impacts on the repricing of our loan books. From here to the next quarters, we expect the domestic net interest income to start to increase, reversing the trends of those last almost two years. In overall terms from the same period of last year, we have a decline of 6.5% in the global net interest income, being a decline of 11.7% if we consider just the domestic activity. On slide 16, we present precisely the retail net interest margin, and as you can see, it continues to go down, but at a lower pace as in comparison to what happened in previous quarters. We have just a decline of two basis points in the domestic activity and just one basis point in the consolidated activity. As I already said, we believe this is the bottom in terms of the net interest margin. From here we expect to start to recover some of these on these numbers. By the contrary, on slide 17, we have the evolution of net fees and commissions. As you can see, we have the best quarter since even since the pre-COVID period. This is as it is shown in slide 18, much driven by two main aspects. The first one is the placement of investment funds and bancassurance products within our client base, supported by the low level of interest rates and the fact that the bank deposits are not an alternative to place the savings of our clients. This explains the strong increase in commissions coming from this business line. The second main reason is precisely in terms of means of payment and other commissions which are linked to the reopen of the economy and the increase in the transactionality of our clients. We are fully confident that we will continue to see this trend for the future. The net fees and commissions will compensate for the more muted evolution of the net interest income. On the left chart on this slide, we have the consolidated figures which show an increase of 11.8% over the same period of last year. Also important, on slide 19, support our core income is the evolution of the operating costs. In terms of employee costs, as you might recall, we have already that in the first half of the year. We have a significant gain in terms of the actuarial calculations of the post employ benefits and the medical plan. This represents these EUR 95 million which are signed with this mark. We consider that also as non-recurrent. If we look just to the recurrent costs, we have a two percent decline in staff costs, 5.2 in other administrative expenses, and an increase in amortizations. This due to the significant increase in investments that were made in the previous years, especially in developing the digital front ends and platforms of CGD, and also some investment in terms of the renewal of the physical branches all over the country, which is problems that will continue for the following years. All in all, we have a decline of 1.6% in our cost structure. With this, in slide 20, we continue to have a positive evolution in our cost-to-income ratio, which has achieved 47.3% in the end of September. This excluded the non-recurrent costs which, in this case are non-recurrent cost savings, but we exclude that. If we look just to the cost-to-income, even here we have a positive evolution from 53.9 to 53.3. Moving to slide 21, we have the contribution from our international activity. We also have a positive performance. An increase of 18% from 2020 to 2021, and this would be even better if we if we discount the currency devaluations in some geographies, especially in the case of Angola, where we have a decline of one percent in the contribution, but in the domestic currency, the performance increased 22%. The only geography where we have a decline, a significant decline in terms of net income, even in local, in local currency, is in Macau. This is totally due to the fact that the local interest rates declined in the beginning of the year, and these are having an impact in the net interest margin of the subsidiaries. In overall terms also to highlight the very good performance from Mozambique, with an increase of 17% in terms of contribution to the group results. Of course, here, this is also a consequence of the increase in local interest rates, which was decided by central bank in the first quarter of the year. Of course, the bank is benefiting from in terms of net interest income. Moving to the balance sheet dynamics on slide 22, we have, as we already had in the previous quarter, a very significant increase in terms of business volume, mainly supported by customer resources, especially deposits. As you will see, but also supported by the increase in the loan book. From the same period of last year, the business volume increased close to seven percent. In terms of the net assets on slide 23, we continue to be substantially above the EUR 100 billion mark. And this is a consequence of the huge increase in deposits from one side, and from the other side also the take up that we made in the TLTRO, where we increased almost EUR 5 billion from the end of 2020 to this date of September. Moving to slide 24, where we can see the evolution of the customer resources. We have an increase of EUR 5 billion in terms of deposits on top of almost EUR 7 billion that they increased in 2020. Of course, this is positive from one side, which shows a strong confidence from our client base, but it also has a negative aspect, which is the excess liquidity that the bank holds, which is also penalizing our net interest income as part of this excess liquidity is just being placed in the account within the ECB. Also to mention the evolution on investment funds, an increase close to EUR 1.5 billion, which is, of course, a consequence of what I already mentioned about the level of interest rates, but also a consequence of the good performance of the majority of the investment funds that we commercialize, that have been recognized by several external entities with several prizes awarded to some of our funds. On the right-hand chart, we can show that the evolution of deposits is across all segments with significant increases in households, in corporates, and also in institutional clients. In terms of credit on slide 24, 25, sorry, we can also see that the growth on the credit book across all segments. We have increases in the corporate, in general government, households, consumer credits. If we look just to the corporate segment on the right end, excluding the construction and real estate sectors, and we continue to exclude those two sectors because this is where we concentrate the deleveraging of the NPLs. If we excluding these two sectors, we can see an increase of 5.9%, which is a very good and strong evolution, especially if we consider that for a substantial part of the year, almost six months, the economy and the society were under a strict lockdown. This is a very good performance. On slide 26, we show some data about the diversification of our loan book. This is pretty much the same as we have in the end of June. Just a very small, very small increase in the average LTV from 60.3 to 60.4. In overall terms, the numbers are pretty much the same. On slide 27, we have the evolution of the new mortgage loans. As you can see, we have the best quarter on this period that is shown in the graphs, I can say that this is the best quarter in terms of new production for sure since 2008. It surpasses even the second quarter where we have already an historical high. This is very important as this is the most important business line for CGD. As we can see, we have an increase of 59% from the same period of last year, which compares to an increase in the market of 37.8%. With that, we are reinforcing our market share in terms of new production 24.2%. In terms of the stock of loans, it also increases slightly, standing also at 24%. This is quite an important, an important evolution for Caixa, as this is by far our most important business line. Moving to asset quality on slide 28, we have a decline on the cost of credit risk. As you can see in the chart, we have new impairments of EUR 180 million. The majority of them, made on a preventive basis to tackle the potential impacts of the end of moratorium in Portugal. I will show you some data on that. More important, in the bottom of the chart, we have this number of minus EUR 138 million. This is the impairment reversals coming from recoveries. We have the best performance for the last five years. In fact, we were able to recover some of the legacy NPLs in this period and in a very important amount. This is the reason why the cost of credit risk declined so much from last year to 2021. The second reason is because we are already very comfortable with the level of these preventive impairments that we made to face the end of the moratoriums, as you will see. There's no reason to continue to increase this stock of impairments. In the end of September, the stock of preventive impairments, which is almost EUR 500 million, which we think is more than enough for the outcome that we are seeing from the end of moratoriums. With that credit recovery on slide 29, we can see the evolution of our NPE and NPL ratios. The NPL ratio at 2.8%, the NPE at 2.3%. On the right hand, you can see the coverage by impairments. In terms of the NPL, we have a specific coverage of 68%. If we consider the total stock of impairments, the coverage will go to 112%. If on top of that we consider the value of collaterals, we have a coverage, a global coverage of 142%. Very strong coverage, which means that in the actual stock of NPLs, we can consider that we already have more than a fully coverage. On slide 30, we have the evolution of the NPL ratio. A very good performance from 4.7% in the end of 2019 to 2.8%, finally below 3%, which is also a milestone for Caixa. In the right-hand chart, we can see the main drivers for this reduction. The main drivers are, in fact, the most benign ones, which are queues and cash recoveries. We also performed some individual sales. We haven't performed any portfolio sale. We have one in the pipeline, but on a very small amount, close to EUR 100 million. With that, in terms of the last column, the write-off, we have an increase of EUR 207 million. This is pretty much in line with the regular inflow of new NPL coming from retail operations, and it's pretty much in line with the previous years, so no reason for concern. The total stock still stands slightly above EUR 2 billion. On slide 31, we have the information on foreclosed assets, which declined less than five percent. We continue to have several deals in the pipeline in order to reduce substantially this stock. We should expect good news for the near future. The same in slide 32 with the restructuring funds and investment properties, which were pretty much stable in 2021, but we continue to work on the leveraging on those two assets, type of assets or assets. Moving to slide 33 in terms of the moratoriums. As you know, the moratoriums expired in the 30 of September. From our stock, we have the total moratoriums that expired on that date are close to EUR 6.2 billion. On that date, there were EUR 210 million of moratoriums that remained, for several reasons, many of them linked to the specific contracts or, due to specific aspects in the Portuguese, in the Portuguese law. As of the third of November, so the most recent date, the actual moratoriums are just EUR 149 million. We also have the classification for stagings for these stock of loans. These data is for the stock of loans that at some point in time were under moratorium. As we can see, the total classification, the total stock of those loans classified in stage one declined by 6.2%. These were moved to stage two, which increased by 6.5%. This has to do to the fact that we think that, these loans that move from stage one to stage two need to have a close monitoring. This is precisely the reason why we decide to move for between stages. They are, they continue to be paid in line with the projected cash flows. There's no lack of payments. This change is just for precautionary reasons. In terms of the stock that are under stage two, we are even notice a small decline of just 0.2%, but even though a small decline. On the right side, it's also important to mention that with the end of moratoriums, we monitoring closely all individually, all the loans that were under moratorium in the last months. We proposed to several clients to restructuring their loans, and we already apply restructuring measures to about 3,000 households with a total exposure of EUR 330 million. These are almost all mortgage loans. We also apply restructuring measures to 600 companies with a total exposure of EUR 150 million. We still have some cases still under negotiation, but we don't expect this number to change very significantly. This means that from the moratoriums so far, from the end of the moratorium so far, we are not noticing deterioration of the asset quality on this group of loans. Our perspective as of today is much better than it was three or six months ago. Nevertheless, we decide to keep this level of preventive impairments because we understand that in some cases, we might, we are not already with all the information. Which means that some clients can pay the first installment, the second one, and face difficulties some in the period they have. We continue to have a close monitoring under this, on this portfolio. And of course, we will use this stock of preventive impairments if needed. If not, we will release them in the future. Moving to liquidity on slide 34. There's nothing new here. We have the take on the TLTRO on EUR 5.8 billion, the same as we had in last June. On slide 35, you can see the our also that maturity profile, a very light one, especially in comparison to the total eligible assets and liquidity that we hold in the balance sheet. But just, I think it's important to mention that, concerning our AT1, we already addressed to ECB the request for approval for CGD to exercise the call option next March. We already launched the process. We are now waiting for the regulatory decision, but our expectation is that we will be able to exercise the call. Moving to slide 36. We have our liability structure, as you can see, pretty much based on retail funding, customer deposits. Our loan-to-deposit ratio stabilized from June to September. This is a direct consequence of the reopen of the Portuguese economy and the increase in consumption, and by opposite to some decrease in the savings rate in Portugal. For CGD, this is really important because we have been observed a decline on the loan-to-deposit ratio since several quarters from the last, those last years. On slide 37, the liquidity ratio is very strong, substantially above the regulatory requirements. Finally, on capital on slide 38, as you can see, we have the capital ratios are pretty much in line with the ones in December. This is a consequence of the fact that the capital generated during 2021 is being distributed under the not only the regular dividends paid in the first half of the year, but especially under this extraordinary dividend that we are paying in the next days, but it is already excluded from these capital calculations. On slide 39, we can see in comparison to the regulatory requirements, we continue to have very strong buffers, even after the payment of this extraordinary dividend. On slide 40, we have the other indicators, the risk-weighted asset density. It continues to decline. In this case, it's mainly a consequence of the increase on the excess liquidity, which is also the reason why the leverage ratio declined from December until September. The tax ratio is already at very low levels, which is very positive for the intrinsic quality asset quality. On slide 41, in terms of available distributable items and the MDAs, as you can see, we have buffers above EUR 3 billion in the different measures, so no reason for concern there. Finally, on slide 42, in terms of the MREL requirement, we already have the requirements established by the SRB. An interim target of 23.13% for January 1st 2022, and a target of 25.58% for January 2024. With this most recent issuance from CGD of the Senior Preferred Sustainable debt, we already ensured the compliance of the interim binding target for January 2022. Our funding plan until the end of 2023 projects the total issuance of EUR 1.5 billion in order to fulfill the requirements for January 2024. Just as a reminder, CGD has no subordination requirements, but even though we expect to fulfill this funding plan with Senior Preferred and senior non-preferred issuances on these next two years. Finally, as a summary on slide 43, we compare our capital ratio CET1 with European average as displayed in the EBA risk reports for June. The comparison is not totally fair as we are compared with September data for CGD, with June data for the banking system. Nevertheless, it's at least an idea of how CGD places itself within the European level. The same on slide 44, in terms of cost-to-income, a very good position for CGD. In terms of return on equity on the right hand, CGD is now below the European average. Of course, we know that the European banks are improving very substantially the profitability. Even considering that, we think we will be able in the future to close this gap and to be in line with the profitability, the average profitability of European banks. Finally on slide 45, the same for the NPL ratio. We continue to lag 50 basis points for the European average. We will continue our effort in order to converge with European average in the near future. If we consider the coverage level, and if we cross these two dimensions, we are already in line with European average in terms of NPLs not covered by impairments. This is it. On slide 46 is just a sum up of the main aspects on the performance of these three quarters of 2021. I will just mention once again, the successful completion of the previous strategic plan. It seems that it was a long time ago, but we just received the confirmation from DG COMP last April. I just mentioned that because this is a very important milestone for Caixa as it ends nine years under the monitoring of the European Commission. As in the previous call, we are expecting to release our new strategic plan in the near future. We are just waiting for the new board to be in charge to release the details of the strategic plan to cover the years from 2022 to 2024. Thank you for your attention. This is it. I am now open to any questions you might have. Thank you. We'll take our first question from Cole Latal with Société Générale. Your line is open. Hi, gentlemen. Thank you very much for the call. I just have one quick question. Do I understand that if you are able to call the CET1 and then perspectively the tier two, you won't replace those? You will be left with a bond curve that is essentially just preferred senior and non-preferred senior. Is that right? Yes. Which means that even in our capital ratios, we will have the total ratio similar to the CET1 ratio. You are right. We will just have the senior non-preferred and some small pieces that were private placements made in the past, but that are not representative. This is true. We, if we will be successful in exercise these two calls at a certain point in time, we will just be just with senior non-preferred. Thank you. And once again, that is star and one for your questions. We will pause to allow any further questions to queue. And it does appear that we have no further questions at this time. Okay. Once again, want to thank you for participating and remind you that we will have the podcast on our website. Thank you again. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Have a nice day. Thank you. Thank you for attending the conference call. The audio webcast will be available on the CGD website.
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