Good day, and welcome to CGD's Conference Call. This call follows the first nine months 2022 results release, which took place yesterday. It is possible to follow the results presentation from the CGD website. The CFO, Mrs. Maria João Carioca, the Head of Financial Markets, Mr. Marco Azevedo, and the Head of IR, Nuno Pereira, will guide you through the presentation, and a Q&A session will follow. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Nuno Pereira. Please go ahead. Good morning, and thank you for joining CGD's Q3 2022 Results Presentation. This has been a quarter marked by a favorable evolution of the quality of our credit portfolio and a strong contribution from the international activity to our net income. Without further ado, I will hand the floor to our CFO, Maria João Carioca, who will guide you through the presentation. Thank you. Thank you, Nuno. Thank you, everybody, for joining us. As Nuno has just put it has indeed been a Q3 marked by positive developments. Let me skip right to page six in our presentation to give you the core highlights for this quarter, which is obviously our accumulated to September consolidated net income of EUR 692 million. This brings us up to an ROE of 10.8%, so indeed reaching significant levels given our past track records and given our return on equity goals. Going to page seven, some additional detail on how do these EUR 692 million break down. These have been supported by a significant continued contribution by our international areas. By September 2022, EUR 155 million of our consolidated income were derived from our international operations. It has also been supported by a very healthy, continued performance in terms of asset quality in our domestic operations. We see that recoveries and overall performance in our credit portfolios have allowed us to register a value in provision and impairments that is one of the backbones of our results by September of this year. The remaining aspects of our income breakdown also show the impact, as expected, of course, of the current context in terms of interest rates. You see an overall evolution in terms of net interest income, which is also registering at about EUR 100 million, with a breakdown that of course reflects the gradual impact in our retail operations and also the treasury net income that has derived from the changes in interest rates. I think throughout the remainder of the presentation, we'll be highlighting some of the other aspects in our income breakdown. I think at this point, maybe I would just highlight additionally the fact that even though the context is an inflationary one, and as a bank we also experience the heightened electricity and energy costs. Overall the efficiency, operational efficiency of operational cost reductions have allowed us to sustain what has been what we consider a favorable cost performance in incorporating, of course, not only the cost of energy, but also the interest rates and the exchange rates impacting our international activities. Overall, EUR 692 million supported fundamentally through great asset quality and continued resilience in our performance. This brings us on page eight to what is the expected dividend payments. We're highlighting here, given the fact that these are significant results, we're putting into perspective how do we expect that to translate in terms of repayments and ability to reduce some of the outstanding commitments we have. In terms of dividends, the highlight goes to the fact that, as before, we are maintaining a stronghold on our dividend policy. We expect these results to support significant dividends within what has been agreed as the policy that has been maintained for the past few years. Regarding the COVID situation, we have repaid the dividend concerning that period. What we now have is a steady track record that we intend to maintain. Being conscious and aware of the fact that we are now enjoying a very strong capital base and still accumulating organic capital, core capital, through the generation of results, we are of course also signaling our continued intention to work on our overall funding structure. In particular, given the characteristics of our Tier 2 outstanding issuance, the fact that it comes to the ability to exercise our repayment clauses in June 2023, we're now signaling to the market that we expect to be in conditions to exercise that call and we have been working towards maintaining that flexibility. Very much aware that this is a process that is now being initiated. All the requirements will have to be put in place. Given the strong capital position, again, this is within our expectations for 2023. Overall, it should bring us to a total amount of dividends plus repayments after the AT1 amortized early this year. Overall, about EUR 2.3 billion of repayments to investors throughout the period. On page nine, a short mention of the fact that these figures have now brought us into a continued zone of returns above cost of capital. Our ROE now stands within the 10.8% reference, so in the 10%-11% interval, which has been put out on the industry as a good reference for cost of capital. We would highlight the fact that this is achieved on a very strong capital base, again. I think the key note here is the relative stability that the last few years have brought us, and the fact that we are now maintaining and sustaining levels that are very consistent with that, with that interval, that corridor of healthy cost of capital. That is sustained, of course, by a steady development of our business. I will very quickly talk you through pages 10 and 11. They talk back to how our business volumes have been growing in a balanced way. Page 10 just gives you a short breakdown of what's happening geography-wise and business-wise. It's a balanced breakdown, so consistent growth, both in the international and domestic operations, and also on both sides of the balance sheet. On page 11, you have some additional references and some additional data on what's happening with our international operations. It's a year that has been marked to some extent by the impacts of exchange rates in a number of these operations, but also by continuous extraordinary circumstances, and I would highlight here the case of Macau, which has been operating throughout the year in the intermittent but mostly dominant COVID zero circumstances in the Chinese market. All in all, balanced contributions by all of our largest operations sustaining significant growth, but within the defined risk appetites and the defined budgetary constraints for those operations. Quickly to page 12. Again, just to highlight the fact that this growth, particularly in Portugal, on the enterprise side, so on the corporates and general governments, we've been registering steady growth on the 2%-3% bracket. As before mentioned, the focus that we are choosing to have on the SME segment, it's part of our strategic plan, it's part of our ambition, given the fact that historically, this is one area where our market shares have not been as high as in other market segments. We see a value, we understand the context, so we find this 6% to be a highlight, given that it does show our ability to produce higher growth in our target segments. It still balances out to the fact that this is a context where companies are being cautious about their investment plans, and risk is, of course, heightened given the current circumstances. Still good performance on the SME segment, aligned with our strategic goals. On the mortgage loan portfolio, on the individual side of the business, some highlights also on the mortgage portfolio. This is, of course, in Portugal, a topic given the fact that this is mostly a variable rate portfolio. We've been monitoring very carefully, the position in our overall portfolio and been doing a micro-segmented approach to, what are the circumstances in terms of the degree of stress and the effort rates that are underlying the portfolio. We are being, again, proactive in reaching out to clients where we see a combination of the amount that is due monthly, so the pressure on the actual average monthly installments vis-à-vis the effort rates that we're seeing on those client segments. Thus far, what we're seeing is an overall performance in the portfolio, so underlying characteristics in the total portfolio that give us some comfort. We do expect some additional stress in some of our marginal segments, but we see those segments as being relatively small in size and overall a healthy portfolio. Couple of numbers to highlight this note of health in our portfolio. It's EUR 244 average monthly installment. For some families, that is, given the Portuguese macroeconomic data, that may actually prove to be some degree of effort, but it's still relatively in the low brackets of income. It should still be accommodatable. In terms of effort rates, what we're seeing is that over 70% of our contracts have an effort rate, a DSTI below 40%. Very importantly, on our more recent contracts, you could foresee the persona for those contracts as being, you know, younger families, probably more pressed. Those are contracts where we see lower effort rates. Our effort rates for those subsegments now stands at 23%. Those are the contracts celebrated since 2017. Again, the highlight here is pressure, of course, carefully monitored, very proactively acted upon. We're incorporating data from our relationship with the customers, our transactional and relational information, such as, for instance, savings that these customers may also be holding with us. We are proactively advising on what might be their preferred strategy in managing their combined savings versus mortgage circumstances. Hopefully we will weather through this. There will definitely be some stress, but what we see at this stage is a portfolio capable of weathering that stress. Moving on to the other side, to the savings side, deposits continue to grow at Caixa. This is a 4% growth, still very hand in hand with the growth that we saw before in some of our credit segments. The balance sheet remains relatively balanced. Overall, what we see is the continuous confidence that Portuguese customers have in choosing Caixa for their savings. I will just briefly highlight on page 15 the fact that even though the context right now draws our strategic priorities and our agenda and attention to other areas, we have not let go of our transformation and digitalization agenda. Page 15 gives you some of those numbers, and I think it's particularly relevant to highlight that at this stage, the transformation and digitalization is already being put to work precisely to make sure that, for instance, the ease for our customers to have their savings done automatically, remotely, particularly given the preference for mobile usage, that is actually being put to the test, and it's actually being heavily used. We now have about 82% of our savings. You can see that at the bottom of page 15. 82% of savings sales, so to say, so new deposits, new solutions are being chosen, being done by clients in digital channels. An important addition to our service levels to our customers and also helping us push the cost to serve down in these more transactional environments. Page 16, you've got some of the reflection of that reduction in cost to serve. It is, of course, a ratio of our current cost to income standing at 41.8% in the domestic market, 41.5%, consolidated at group level. It's of course, being the result of the combined enhancements in income, but also the continued effort towards cost efficiency, is sustaining our view that these are trends that will continue throughout the coming months. Moving onwards now a bit further into the quality of our assets. You see on page 17, one of the major drivers for what we classify as indeed a development that thus far is showing our credit portfolio as resilient within the current context. We see continued decreases in our gross NPL figures, translating of course, into our NPL ratios. But what was the rate in recent years is now has brought us to a gross NPL figure below the EUR 2.0 billion mark. A long way away from the figures that we had back in 2017 and 2016 when we started restructuring the bank. On page 18, a bit more of a deep dive within the current context. We've been sharing this information with you when we break down our credit portfolio by stages. Again, we continue to see an improvement in our portfolio. This is true both for the consolidated activity and for the overall Portuguese activity. We do continue to monitor more closely those clients that had a moratorium within the COVID context. We see there a differentiated profile as expected. Even there what we see is a reduction in stage two towards stage one. Still overall an improved performance in the portfolio, even for these customers where there is definitely additional pressure. All these things put together, and if we move on to page 19, I think, if you put together the health of the portfolio, what you see here on the right side of the information where we depict the evolution of our cures and recovery. Again, our recovery activity has been performing quite healthily as well. And you see that not only is the performing portfolio continuing to improve, also the ones where we've come into terms with a recovery solution are now being able to register significant numbers in terms of cures. Gross NPL evolution, very positive also because of recovery activity. Continued very high rates of coverage. We continue to compare very favorably to what happens in our neighboring market in Spain, also an Iberian market with similar characteristics to a large extent to ours. We are comparing very favorably with Spain, with the European Union levels, and with the Portuguese overall markets. These things combined have brought us to an overall cost of credit risk of - 25 basis points. Still below what was past performance, slightly higher than what we shared with you in June, but still overall, we see it as the outcome of this combination to date of performance in the portfolio and performance in the recovery and a cautionary approach in terms of coverage. This has, of course, been translated into the P&L and it's the significant improvement in P&L that we highlighted before. It's again more the reflection of the current performance of the portfolio. We are still maintaining, of course, a very cautionary approach as to what might be the future impact, and we're monitoring carefully, as I shared with you on the mortgage credit, also in the corporate credit, we're monitoring carefully for the future. This is the picture as of September, and it's one that is still proving a resilient portfolio. Jumping into capital on page 20, just to share the continued high levels of capitalization I've alluded to. We're very much aware that we're now touching on the 20% reference for the total capital ratio. That, of course, gives us comfortable capital buffers. On page 21, we highlight the fact that nevertheless, we have been very much aware of our MREL requirements moving forward. We have continued with our issuing plan, and even though this has been a tricky year in terms of capital markets, we were capable to exercise due patience and find a window of opportunity. We went back to the markets this October. Just to highlight to you that this has been our green issue, actually our third with ESG characteristics, EUR 500 million placements, where 70% of our investments were ESG-minded. This has been, let's say, it's an ulterior development, but one that has brought us to comfort, not just in terms of total capital ratios, but also in terms of MREL requirements, and has now also given us additional comfort in terms of our ability to meet our commitments to sustainability goals and to retain the leadership position in the banking industry in that respect that we have been aiming for. Here, I think these are the core highlights for the accounts. I would maybe just draw your attention to some additional data on liquidity, which we haven't touched upon yet. Maybe jumping to page 36 to give you an overview of our liquidity position, which remains, I'd say markedly, resilient. Our ratios are clearly above the regulatory requirements. Maybe just to wrap up on page 38 with a final note I've alluded to already concerning MREL. We have to a large extent pre-funded some of you know our considerations on the requirements. I think as you see on the page there with the current information and our projected figures for the requirements and our performance, our MREL ratio for issuances carried out in October, as I've referred to before, we now stand at 27, approximately 28% of risk-weighted assets, and that exceeds the 25.95% that we expect to be applicable to us as of January of 2024. We are comfortably within requirements and pre-funded to a large extent. I would leave some room for Q&A here, and I thank you for your attention and for being with us today. Thank you very much. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your touchtone phone. You may withdraw your question at any time by pressing the pound key. Once again, to ask a question, please press star and one on your touchtone phone. We will pause a moment to allow questions to queue. Once again, it is star and one on your touchtone phone if you would like to join the queue. We will pause for another moment. It appears that we have no questions at this time. Okay. I wanna thank you again for joining today's conference call. We are conscious of the fact that technical difficulties prevented some of you from joining the call today. I want to remind you that the investor relations team remains available to take your questions. Thank you once again, and have a good day. Thank you for attending the conference call. The audio webcast will be available on the CGD website. Thank you all for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.
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