Good morning, and welcome to the Arise Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing Star then Zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Per-Erik Eriksson. Please go ahead. Thank you very much. I am Per-Erik Eriksson, CEO of Arise. Wish you all welcome to our quarter three report. Let's start then. We move to Slide 3, a brief introduction of Arise. We were founded as a business in 2007 and listed on Nasdaq in 2010. Currently, we are around 39 employees. We have three business segments. One is production, where we have 139 MW in own production, corresponding to some 340 GWh in normal annual production. We have another business segment, which is development. We have currently some 2.6 GW in project pipeline, and we have until now divested some 1.3 GW. We have the third leg of our business, which is Solutions, where we currently have some 1,800 MW, 1.8 GW on assets under management. We have a record level of assets under construction at the moment of 800 MW. Moving over to go through the numbers, I hand over to Markus. Yeah. Thank you, Per-Erik. Yeah, Q3 was quite an exceptional quarter, right, due to the sale of Kölvallen, completed in July this year. Net sales for this quarter amounted to SEK 917 million. Corresponding figures for the same quarter last year was SEK 180 million. EBITDA total SEK 713 million, and EBIT, SEK 697 million. The comparable profit before tax came in at SEK 722 million compared to SEK 57 million the same period last year. Recognized profit before tax was SEK 705 million compared to SEK 54 million the same quarter last year. Net income, SEK 705 million, which corresponds to almost 16 SEK per share. We saw a strong operating cash flow of SEK 792 million compared to 93 the same period last year, and cash flow after investments amounted to SEK 659 million as compared to 64 in Q3 2021. Production generated 52 GWh of green electricity, lower than the same period last year, and the average income was just south of 500, 496 SEK per MWh. This all in all resulted in a decrease in the total income from production to SEK 26 million compared to SEK 43 million for the same period last year. Kölvallen, I mentioned in the beginning, completed in July, which gave an earnings impact up-front at closing of approximately EUR 65 million. That will flip page to Page 5. Just a perhaps shallow dive into the performance of our segments. Development, starting with that, again, strongly impacted by the Kölvallen transaction, but also from the initiated revenue recognition from that same project, posted a Q3 EBITDA of SEK 704 million. Production saw winds that were much weaker than budget. We'll get back to that in a bit, but it still managed to post SEK 12 million EBITDA, despite these challenging conditions. Our Solutions business came in at SEK 2 million in Q3 EBITDA, and that was an improvement from the first half of the year, as you may know. With that, I'll hand back over to you, Per-Erik, continue on Page 6. Thank you. Regarding our financial position, in the diagram to the left, you can see in the staple diagram our production assets in megawatts. You can see the green line, which is the accumulated divested capacity. Here we had some progress with Kölvallen, the divestment we did with Kölvallen. We have divested until today some 1.3 gigawatt. The revenues from this divestments we have used to decrease our debt, basically. You can see the latest update that we actually have a net cash position currently, which is quite a big development if you compare to 2014, when we had net debt of 54%. We will use this. This will be a good platform for us to accelerate growth. That's basically it. We flip over to Slide 7, our project pipeline. We have more than 2.6 gigawatts or 2,600 MW in the pipeline at this moment. In the late-stage development, we have Fasikan project where we are awaiting the line concession in legal force. We also have Finnåberget and Tormsdale to come. I should mention here that we have had some progress also on solar. You can see in early stage development that we have some 50 MW in solar in Sweden. I actually believe that we already next year will be able to realize two projects on solar as well in late stage because the permit process is considerably shorter for solar. We expect to have some progress on that already next year. We have also added some battery storage in Scotland and in one project in Scotland, we have prepared for a battery storage. We have a large solar project in England, where we also have prepared for a battery storage. That's added quite recently to our pipeline. With that said, we could move over to Slide 8, some market update, starting with the Nordics forward market in the Nordics. We had a bit of a price rally, during, especially during July and August, very much driven by dry conditions in Norway, but also, the low gas supply we experienced until end of August in continental Europe. On top of that, we had some discussions within EU regarding a price cap and intervention discussions, which had a quite big impact on the market as one. In September, we have seen that the market's been relaxing a bit, improved. We have seen some improved fundamentals. Gas storage is filled up in continental Europe, and also we have seen that the consumption is going down due to high price environment. Yeah, that's basically the main reasons. If you look on the spot market, in SE4, we had a quite extreme situation. We had low wind, as you have seen in our production, which resulted in an extreme volatility in the market. Extreme high prices and extreme volatility, meaning that price hedging activities have been quite challenging during the summer period. If you look on the continental power prices, we have seen them going sky high due to supply fears, due to the fact that the spot gas supply from Russia. Also on top of that, we have some nuclear availability issues, especially in France, which you can see clearly, especially during July and August. We have also seen some improvements in terms of LNG deliveries and improving gas storage injections, calming down the market. As said, also we have seen some impact on consumption as well. Look, our view on the market is that we can expect to have this high price environment continuing short-term, and short-term is certainly one to two years or something in that range. With that said, I think we are moving over to Slide 9, and I hand over to Markus again. Okay, thanks, Per-Erik. Yeah, on the left-hand side, looking into the market prices and the realized prices, Fredrik touched upon it, but it was a quarter with extremely high market prices, and also as mentioned, very high price volatility. Combining that with our low production for the quarter, our realized prices was well below the market average. The top right-hand side illustrates this, I would say, record low production during Q3 with 52 GWh. It also illustrates the fact that Q4 and Q1 normally are the best in terms of production. On the hedging side, we have not taken any more positions since Q2, and this is due to this extreme market and the resulting low liquidity. Obviously we're monitoring these prices and volumes continuously. Flipping to Page 10 then, and back to you, Per-Erik. Thank you. Key activities planned for 2022, just a status update. The green financing framework we completed in May, and we had an investment decision on Lebo project, 5 turbines, some 30 MW. The project started, construction work started up, so that's completed as well. We had Kölvallen, the transaction Kölvallen completed mid-July. And actually, the construction works started up already this summer. And worth mentioning is that we have retained some 9% stake in Kölvallen as well which is part of our strategy as well. Regarding Fasikan, some 100 MW, we expect to have a line concession and legal force. Difficult to say exactly when, but it should be for storm, and this is the last step before we can start to put Fasikan in the market. We expect to have Fasikan closed of the year-end first half next year. That's our plan, and that's our aim. We have continued focus or I would say, the main focus for us now is to increase and secure the project pipeline according to our strategy. And then we are talking about different technologies and also selected geographies. And different technologies means wind and solar and the geographies we're active in is in Sweden, the Nordics in U.K and in Poland. With that, I think we'll move to Slide 11. Our current focus growth ambitions. We are, as said, accelerating the portfolio expansion in selected markets. We are also growing the organization. We have, during the quarter, hired 6 new employees. And we also see some result now from our efforts in Sweden with the new solar projects, which are happy about. And as said, we believe to have the first ones realized already next year. We are continuing the approach with a dynamic approach to realizing value from our portfolio, meaning that we have the flexibility to divest, keep and co-invest on a case-to-case basis, which you can see in Lebo project, for instance, and also the fact that we are keeping a share of 9% in Kölvallen. We are active and continuously evaluating M&A opportunities throughout our selected geographies, both in wind, solar and projects in various stages. So that's ongoing as well. I think that's it. So I guess we'll leave the floor open for questions now. Hello, Per-Erik and Markus. I'm standing in for Olof today. I know we have spoken about the price hedges earlier, but could you tell me about how they work for you a little bit more? Sorry, I didn't hear the last sentence. I'm just curious, could you tell me a bit more about how the electricity price hedges work for you? Basically, we have base load hedges which are in effect all hours in a day, basically. We have a hedging philosophy that we try to be a bit conservative, hedging around 30%-40% max of maximum of our production. What happened now during the summer when we could have one day with 300 EUR per megawatt hour with no wind at all, and the other day we could have perhaps 10 EUR or 30 EUR with a lot of wind means that we have a bit of an inefficiency in our hedges during these extreme circumstances. We had a bit extremely poor, I would say, quarter this summer. This is actually production-wise the worst quarter we had, I think, in our history. We had a quite big impact from negative impact from the hedges in reality. This means that when we have low or no production at all, when we need to buy back from the market to a higher price versus what we have hedged, and that negative impact is hitting us in the tail. How would this? Could you repeat the question? Yes. Thank you. If the prices for electricity decrease, how will this affect you then? Yeah. Then we will have a gain from our hedges hour by hour then. We have seen that as well during this period. I would say quarter three is one of the high-risk quarters in terms of production and we expect to have a quite much better outcome moving forward. I have just one more question. The average realized price for electricity is down quarter-over-quarter, but your hedging prices have been increasing. How is that? I'm not sure if I follow you. You mean that the hedge price is higher than the realized price or what do you mean? Your hedging prices have been increasing, but if we look at the average realized price for electricity for you, it's down. I'm just curious, how is that? I think that this is the result of what I just tried to explain, that basically we have had a negative impact from our price hedges when we had extremely poor production. We need to buy back. We make actually a loss on our price hedges on that monthly basis. That's also included in the average price that in our realized price. It's all due to the price hedges and combined with low consumption. Low production, I mean, sorry. Yeah, because I mean, even if we take hedges, future hedges, which I think you mean, where the prices are basically increasing for the hedge position, if there is very low production or no production, we would still get an average price below that. All right. Thank you very much. That was my questions. The next question is from Örjan Rodén from Erik Penser Bank. Please go ahead. Yes, I have one, Örjan Rodén here. First question was Lebo. Can you give us an update on your commissioning date and what is going on on that project? You said that in both Finnåberget and Fäbodliden you were in the last step for getting the final permit in place. Could you give a little bit deeper discussion, what are the obstacles related to these projects right now? What are the risks that these processes are being extended well into the future? Thank you. Yeah, sure. Starting with Lebo, we have started up civil works, and we will have the turbines delivered during next summer, and we have a commercial COD quarter one 2024. That is so far moving according to the plan, and we expect and hope it will continue. Regarding the project pipeline and the late-stage development projects, starting with Fäbodliden, as said, we have this final concession which we are convinced we will have in legal force. This is more of an administration process than a real risk, I would say. For Fäbodliden we are quite comfortable we will have. It's just a matter of time, but it has been ongoing for a while, so we really should have it within a few months and at latest before next, well ahead of next summer, I would say. Finnåberget, as we are in a very late permitting process, I would say we are in last appeal process in Finnåberget. We expect to have the permit approved within half a year, a year or so. It's behind Fäbodliden in process. Risks, there are always risks of course, when you are in permit process, but I think we have done the homework, and we are expecting to have a permit approved, of course. Regarding Tormsdale in Scotland, we have filed the permit application, and we also have filed the grid application for that as well, and the grid application is including the battery storage as well. When in Scotland or in the UK, you could say that the processes take a bit longer time. The permitting process is more detailed versus what you can see in the Nordics and Sweden especially. It's a different process, but I would say it's a safer process as well. If you can tick all the boxes and do everything according to the book, it's very likely that you will get the permit in the end of the day. We are quite confident that we will manage to have Tormsdale a permit. I would say that it's realistic to say that we will have a permit in place during 2023 at least. Also we have the grid connection part that needs to be in place as well. We hope that we will have that in place during 2023. We will see if that works or not, but that's what our target is. Okay. Thank you very much. Anything more, Örjan? Sorry. No, nothing for me. Thanks. Thanks. For any further questions, please press star and one. The next question is from Mattias Ehrenborg from Redeye. Please go ahead. Okay. Hello, Per-Erik and Markus. Mattias from Redeye here. I hope you can hear me. Yeah, loud and clear. Excellent. First I just want to congratulate on this Q3 result, best quarter ever and an EBITDA equivalent to what has been accumulated over in previous 19 quarters, if I'm not mistaken. I suppose that must feel great. First question here, you've already touched upon this, what caused your relatively low revenue per megawatt hour in this quarter, and how price hedging affects you. On the back of this, do you feel comfortable going into Q4 and Q1 with your current price hedge portfolio? Yes, we really do. I think we will have quite high expectations on Q4 that we will have a quite much better result. That's absolutely so. Looking at our production on a yearly basis, I would say that still we have EBITDA of SEK 111 million for the first three quarters, which I think corresponding number was 73 or something like that in last year. We are already on the same number we had on an annual basis, 2021. We believe that production will be good this year. Is it possible to quantify the effect, the negative effect that the price hedges had in this quarter in terms of revenue per megawatt hour? Yeah. Now it's, I cannot give you from the top of my head that number. Do you have that? No, I don't. No, we haven't quantified it, basically. So. Okay, it's okay. Anyway, the new government is more pro-nuclear power and less pro wind power than the previous government. You don't have any exposure to offshore wind, which was one of the main talking points of the Tidö Agreement. Would you say this has increased the political risk in Sweden, which previously has been deemed as relatively low? Because I suppose this could have an effect on the cost of capital of your customers, which in turn could affect your profitability on new projects. Well, yes, obviously we have seen the new government has a clear nuclear focus. On the other hand, they have also stated that they will have a look into the permitting processes and they also state that they need more power production in general and of all kinds. I would say that reality will catch up because the only solution short-term to have a material impact from production is onshore wind that can be realized in time, I would say, and during this energy crisis we are in right now. I think reality will catch up. Talking about nuclear, we are talking about 2030 plus. Yeah, I agree. I was just curious to hear what you don't have any projects out in the market as of now, but I was just curious to hear about what the customers think about these recent events. Is there anything you would wish to highlight on the back of this? No, I think, I mean, the discussions with the EU, of course, with price caps, et cetera, that has already had some impact in different countries. That will be interesting to see where that ends up. It will also be interesting to see if there are what the initiatives that are decided on which levels and how long they will continue. Obviously, that is a risk for all players in the market. But on the other hand, the demand for new production and the demand for renewable production have never been bigger. I would be extremely surprised if we would see a huge dip in our market. I'm quite hopeful that the strong market will continue for a number of years. Yeah, I agree. You now have a solid cash position of, I think, nearly SEK 1.3 billion on your balance sheet, and you have invested both in Lebo and Kölvallen. You also mentioned you're looking into acquiring new project rights in your geographies that you're active in. Could you just elaborate a bit regarding how you will deploy this capital and what investors can expect in the coming quarters? Yeah, I mean, as mentioned previously, we're continuously evaluating M&A opportunities across these geographies. That is to, as Per-Erik mentioned, our core focus now is to grow the project pipeline. That could be obviously through M&A situations and for projects, various technologies, but also in various phases. Difficult to say, you know, we're going to invest in this and that exact geography and exact technology and this kind of amount. We're quite confident from the management side that we will be able to invest the capital to grow our portfolio. I'm not sure if that was very clear, but I don't think it's a very clear answer to the question either, but this was a try I guess. Yeah, no, it's good. I appreciate that answer. Final question for me, I think. Regarding the 200 MW solar project in the U.K., I didn't hear earlier if you touched upon that, but what's the current status there? Yeah, we are starting up the permitting process, and we have a grid application filed as well. That's ongoing. It will take some time and until we have that ready to build. I think we had a good start in the project, and it looks very promising. Okay, excellent. That was all for me. Thank you for your time. Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to you. Okay, thank you very much. We can conclude that we have had a quite fantastic quarter, and we think we have a strong belief that 2022 will be a very good year for Arise as a company, and I think we have a kickstart of our journey to grow the company. We are extremely happy and look forward to a great future.
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