Welcome to Arise Q2 presentation for 2024. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be able to ask questions. Sorry, for the first part of the call, participants will be able to listen-only mode. During the question and answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Please go ahead. Thank you very much. This is Per-Erik Eriksson, CEO for Arise. I will start with a brief introduction of the company. We were founded in 2007, starting up as an IPP, and further on, listed on Nasdaq, 2010. Currently, we are some 73 employees in the company. We have activities in five countries: in the Nordics, Sweden, Finland, and Norway, in the UK, and also in Ukraine. We have three business segments, starting with production, which is, you could say, the original Arise. Currently, we have some 172 MW in production, including Lebo project, which was added in May this year. Currently, we have a budgeted production of some 430 GWh. You could mention that Lebo adds some 25% to the earlier production. We have a development business. Currently, we have a project pipeline of roughly 7.9 GW or 7,900 MW. Here, we had a quite good contribution during quarter, which we will come back to later during the presentation. We have, since inception, divested some 1,450 MW, so that's the development segment. We also have the third segment, solutions, which is our services business, including construction management and asset management. Currently, we have some 2,000 MW under management, and under construction, 380 MW. We have the Kölvallen project, 277 MW, and also a Fasikan project, 105 MW under construction. With that said, I hand over to Markus. Thank you, Per-Erik. So looking into the Q2 numbers in brief, then. It was just another very solid quarter, we think, with net sales at SEK 101 million, compared to SEK 110 million the year earlier quarter. We had some positive contribution there from the earn-out in Ranasjö and Salsjöhöjden. I'll get back to that. EBITDA came in at SEK 53 million, compared to 69 in the Q2 2023, and EBIT came in at 33, compared to 53 in Q2 2023. Profit after tax totaled SEK 30 million, which represents some SEK 0.76 per share. The operating cash flow was SEK 24 million; it was SEK 60 million in Q2 2023, and cash flow after investment improved to -SEK 34 million, compared to the -SEK 167 million the year earlier period. Our own production generated 69 gigawatt hours, increased from Q2 2023 of 54 gigawatt hours. But on the other hand, the average income dropped to 549 SEK, compared to 947 the year earlier quarter. If we look into our segments a bit, development posted a very solid EBITDA, which was impacted by the mentioned earn-out in Ranasjö and Salsjöhöjden, a project which was taken over during the quarter. The earnings effect of the earn-out for the quarter was EUR 2.4 million. During the quarter, we also saw a stronger SEK and SEK euro effects, which had some negative impact on our revenue recognition in the quarter, since now the revenue are recognized in euros. Fredrik mentioned it in the beginning, we're pleased to see the portfolio, which increased by 745 MW in second quarter, and also 175 MW were advanced to the late stage. Our Finnish subsidiary, Pohjan Voima, entered into a partnership during the quarter with Finsilva in Finland. Finsilva is one of Finland's largest landowners. They have five identified projects initially, with a 500 MW potential. In the production segment, Lebo was included from the takeover in May, and the quarter saw significantly lower market prices than the same period last year. And in Q2 2023, our realized price was actually at all-time high of 947 SEK per MWh. However, production still contributed to the good result. The Solutions segment posted yet again stable earnings, and was another quarter with positive EBITDA contribution of SEK 3 million. The LTM EBITDA for Solutions is currently now at SEK 12 million. Not massive numbers, but nevertheless, a solid contribution. Going into the project portfolio, we're happy to see both growth, but also diversification. We added 745 megawatts, as mentioned previously, during the quarter. Finland, roughly 500 of those, and Sweden and UK, just above 100 megawatts each. Within the portfolio, we advanced 175 megawatts to late stage, to the late stage portfolio, and that is related to battery projects in the Nordics. Total portfolio now is 7.9 gigawatts, of which 1.1 gigawatt is in late stage. Sweden still dominating, as is wind, but we continue to see increased diversification, both in terms of technology and in terms of geographies. If we look at the power prices and our realized prices, Q2 was a clear drop from the same quarter last year, as discussed previously, when we had the all-time high numbers, the year earlier period. However, worth noting that our realized price was still slightly above the market average due to the favorable hedging. This drop obviously impacts the LTM EBITDA for our own production, but still at very good level around or just north of SEK 160 million mark. And this is actually the tenth consecutive quarter where the LTM EBITDA is above SEK 150 million, which we're pleased to see. Our hedging portfolio was unchanged during the quarter. We continue monitoring the market, and we believe it's more likely than not that prices will pick up in the second half of the year. With that, I'll take a breath and hand back to you, Per-Erik. Thank you very much. Market development, looking into the power market in the Nordics and also continental Europe a bit. You can see the graphs to the left, and the upper one is the spot prices development of spot prices, and the one to the below left you can see the forward prices represented by calendar year 2025 in euros per megawatt hour. Starting with the spot prices, we have seen weaker and quite volatile prices during the quarter. We had a quite mixed weather. With a cold April, we had a quite hot and dry May, and then later on, we had quite a wet June, a lot of rain during June, which had some impact, obviously, on the power prices. We also see that demand is still on a low level, but we also see some signs of recovery year to date. Looking at the forward prices, the market is fairly stable, compared to the spot prices. Short term, we see forwards are impacted by weather. We also see in a bit longer perspective, also in short perspective, that fuel prices are strengthening a bit from last winter lows. We also see European forward prices somewhat higher during the quarter. The continental prices should be mentioned, are quite much or materially higher than the Nordic levels, very much due to the gas market. We see quite slow gas storage injections, which keep the price elevated, especially on the forwards. We also have seen that the gas market is still very sensitive to potential supply disruptions, which was the case in 2022, when the supply from Russia were interrupted. We see a potential recovery on energy intense industry, which is the main driver for the winter. Yeah, I could also mention on price areas in the Nordics, that we see quite large differences, for instance, between SE4 and the other price areas. With that said, I think we flip slide. Our agenda for 2024, for the second half, we will continue to accelerate projects to ready-to-build stage as much as we can. We have said, and we still say, that we will, we have the ambition to do at least one project sale in 2024. We have a continuous work to advance early-stage projects to late stage. That's high focus for us. We have an ambition to continue to grow our pipeline in selected geographies, the geographies mentioned earlier, both through greenfield development, but also we are looking into acquisitions as well. Obviously, we have grown the number of people in the company quite much. We have more than doubled the number of employees during just a few years' time, and... We have a lot of focus to integrate new companies and new people in the company, and also to support the acquired companies for development activities, and could be transactions as well. We still have and will keep the focus on capital discipline. I think we flip side one more time. Looking ahead, the short-term outlook, we see potential improvements on project valuations. We are supported by interest rates expecting to go down, but also we see that there are potential for CapEx to go down. We have already seen solar panels going down a lot in prices, but also batteries also dropped a lot in CapEx. We also see that on the wind side, that the turbines last year, we had a bit of a perfect storm, meaning that all suppliers basically increased the prices quite much due to the fact that they were losing money. Now, we see that raw materials go down, for instance, steel prices, and also we believe that the suppliers, the manufacturers have margins now. So we believe that competition, and we'll start working again on turbines. And looking onto the power markets, which also is something that has a big impact on product valuations, we see a quite big or even huge gap between continental Europe and the Nordics, which we think suggests an upside potential in the Nordics. Just as an example, perhaps in the Nordics, we are trading around 40-50 EUR per MWh, 25, and the corresponding value in Germany is almost double that number. So we are talking about roughly 90 EUR per MWh today. We have very sensitive markets across Europe, which we always should keep in mind. Things go fast, up and down. In the more longer term, industrial consumption will be one of the main drivers in the Nordics, but also in continental Europe. Something to mention is that we see quite strong bullish signals for renewables in the UK. The new Labour government already taken steps to accelerate development of onshore wind and solar PV. They had the target is now to double onshore wind capacity and to triple solar PV capacity by 2030. And just to give some color to this, we are talking about onshore wind, some 15-30 gigawatts to be increased in a quite short time, and the corresponding value for solar is around 20-60 gigawatts. So a quite massive target in the UK. In England, it has been almost impossible to develop onshore wind, but now they open up and also have very ambitious targets for that. And we have actually in early phase some 300 MW we are working with to develop to early phase put into the portfolio. So we have an established organization in the U.K., we have projects coming into the pipeline. To sum up, Arise is well-positioned for another good year. We think that our business model works well. We expect to continue profitable growth and to be meeting our financial targets in the long run. With that said, we say thank you for listening and leave the floor open for questions. If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Kaleb Solomon from SEB. Please go ahead. Hi, Per-Erik and Marcus, Kaleb Solomon here from SEB. Just a few questions from me. I noticed you changed the disclosure in the late stage portfolio from specific projects country. So my first question is: What's the reason for that? And, second, can you give some color on the 45 MW and 150 MW battery projects you added in Sweden and Finland? What lead times you expect, and so on? Yeah. Thanks, and hi, Kaleb. On the first question related to why we changed it, I think that's you know in it's kind of a legacy from the time when Arise maybe had you know a handful of projects or in late stage. As we grow the portfolio now, I think it just makes more sense to disclose them geography by geography rather than project name by project name. So, and as you mentioned, what you could see in Sweden, for instance, is the addition of 45 megawatts battery. And we also mentioned that we had more battery in the Nordics, all in all, 170 or so megawatts in terms of timeline. Always difficult to estimate, but I mean, both those projects are projects where we are pushing significantly forward to be able to move them into transaction mode. Exact timing on that is difficult to say. Okay, thank you. And on the net financials, the euro weakened against the krona sequentially, if you're looking at the last trading day of the month in Q2 compared to Q1. So the revaluation of your euro bonds should impact net financials positively, but it was SEK -3 million. Am I missing something here or? That also, I would say, to some extent, offset by liquid funds and also from kind of other positive revaluations from the same euro weakening. Okay, thank you. Just another question. You mentioned PPAs earlier, and that you're kind of looking at it for next year. At what levels you need to see them to kind of find them attractive and lock something in for 2025 and 2026? So are we talking about the hedges now, right? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah, we have. At the moment, it has been a bit, you could say, soft market and also quite poor liquidity in the market, and we believe or at least we have a hope and believe that we will see some improvements during the during the autumn here. Of course, it's very much weather-driven, but also as I said earlier, it's also driven by the fact that we have a big gap between continental Europe and Sweden. I would say that we expect to be, we are talking about in the range 60+ EUR, I would say, where we would be attracted to hedges at the moment. But it depends also on other factors as well. But to give you a number, I would say that. Is it fair to assume that would be for 40% of the volume as you had last year, or? Well- Expected to be lower? I mean, we wouldn't, we always, when we do hedges, we always take notes over time. We don't do everything in one, because that's not our risk management strategy is always to work with smaller portions. And so basically, you're yeah, you could say that you average the market somehow over time. But normally, I would say that, if we find prices attractive, we would be in the range 30%-40%. That's our sweet spot, I would say, if we find prices on a good level. But also, we are not that worried, to be quite open as well. It's a bit a matter of where we see, where we see value, basically. Okay, thank you. And just, one last question from me. The operating costs in the Development segment was a bit higher than it has been historically during quarters where you haven't divested anything. Was there anything special we should consider this quarter, or should just, that just be, extrapolated moving forward? Yeah, well spotted, Kaleb, and I think that in all material aspects, that is, in a sense, FTE driven, with you know the full Finnish team and Finnish OpEx. Finnish is included in full in the development segment, as is our growing UK business. So I think there we are. Okay. That's it for me. Thank you for answering my questions. Thanks, Kaleb. Thanks. The next question comes from Hanna Grimborg, from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead. Yeah, hi. So I have two questions. So the first is, due to the contribution of Lebo in the production segment, should we expect the operating expense per megawatt hour to be lower going forward? So that's the first one. The second question is, since you are aiming to sell at least one project this year, should we expect that the payment should be more close to a payment in a normal market since you spoke about potential improvement on project valuations? Or should we still expect it to be in the more lower end, considering the market? Hi, Hanna, and thanks for the questions. I think on the OpEx side, with the inclusion of Lebo, it wouldn't move the needle a lot in terms of specific OpEx per megawatt hour. That's the first one. And the second one is yeah, I mean, even though we do believe and see that valuations might improve, it's kind of difficult to answer also where that would be, because it depends a lot on which technology and geography the specific project is in. I don't know if that answers the question. All right, I understand. Yeah, thank you so much for answering my questions. Thanks, Hanna. The next question comes from Örjan Rödén from Carnegie Investment Bank. Please go ahead. Good morning, everyone. Sorry. Just to understand, how would you say that Lebo were producing during the quarter? It was transferred from development to production, I understand that, but was it producing in full during the quarter, or was it a kind of a ramp up during the quarter? That's my first question. Yeah, we could say it, we started up production. We took, we took over the into commercial operation in May, so, so it hasn't been fully, during full operation during the quarter. So you could say it has been ramping up during the quarter. Okay. I'm sorry. Second question: you're citing the new political landscape in the UK. Do you think that that will also impact prices for e.g., Tormsdale, or the timing, that it could be sold faster? Or do you still expect that process to be as you expected to be before? While there are, of course, politics, positive political signals in the political landscape in the UK in general, but I think the key here is really that England is opening up as a company and as a country for onshore. I think that that's the main thing for us. We have been quite early movers in that market as well, and this was basically what we hoped for. So hopefully we can harvest a bit from this. When it comes to Tormsdale, we are in a very late stage permitting process there. If this has a big impact, it might have, but it is difficult to say really. In any case, we expect to have Tormsdale ready to build in a short time. Okay. Final question: you had some PNL impact of the Ranasjö/Salsjöhöjden of SEK 2.4 million, but you also, I expect that at least to have a working capital impact as well from the remaining part. Still, the working capital were negative in the quarter. Will that snap back going forward? And... or what do you, what is your expectations on working capital or cash flow from working capital? Yeah, hi, Örjan, and thanks for that question. And you might isolate the, of course, expect the working capital change to be positive during the quarter with Ranasjö/Salsjöhöjden, which had, you know, give or take, 45-ish million SEK in working capital release. But just then keep in mind also that all the other revenue recognition within the development goes the other way, but I would say also the kind of tipping point in this quarter was a Siemens invoice for related to Lebo, which was just in the beginning of this quarter, so kind of tipping over from Q1 to Q2. Okay. Thank you very much. That was all for my part. Thanks, rjan. The next question comes from Mattias Ehrenborg, from Redeye. Please go ahead. Yes, hello, Per-Erik and Marcus, Mattias Ehrenborg from Redeye here. I have a few questions, and I want to start off with the production. Is it possible to quantify what the total production for Lebo was in Q2? I know that some of it should have come in the development segment, but is 15 gigawatt hours a fair assumption, you think? Yeah, hi, Mattias. The production that is included in the production segment during the quarter was roughly 8-9 gigawatt hours or so. So basically for May and June, then you could extrapolate. Okay, excellent. And all the CapEx for Lebo, has it been accounted for now in your books, or is there anything remaining? Yes, it has. Okay, excellent. And this quarter, I mean, looking at the implicit capture price discount, it looks it was pretty big when adjusting for, for your price hedges. What do you think is a fair rate going forward? So, so sorry, can you repeat that one, Mattias? Yeah, sure. So the capture price or the implicit capture price discount- Yeah ... to the market price was pretty big when adjusting for the price hedges. What, what do you think is a fair rate going forward, this discount rate? Yeah, we had a discount rate in the quarter, if I remember correctly, around 30%. Yeah ... which is a fairly high number, I would say, but that number is varying a lot nowadays. And the background to it was basically that we had a huge volatility, a huge or a big volatility, I would say, in during the quarter on spot prices, very much impacted by a lot of solar PV in continental Europe during May.... So what we know is that it will be, it will happen a lot up and down during the year. But what I would say, I believe that, in this market, that we should have a bit lower number moving forward. I would say that, a normal for us would be some 15%, perhaps half of that. Mm. Okay. Great, thanks. If we just move over to the development segment or at least the Pohjan Voima earn-out, I'm curious to hear how much remains at this point. Has anything been paid out already, or what does it look like? Mattias, no, nothing has been paid out yet. And it's, it's, you know, linked to, to getting to, more or less to ready build stage, or fully permitted stage. So nothing has been paid out yet. Okay, great. Is it possible to quantify the negative effect on the revenue recognition in this quarter? It is, and it's, you know, give or take, -SEK 4 million on the revenue recognition. Okay, great. When do you think you will have sort of a better view of the final capacity of Finn åberget by yet? Yeah, that's current status is that we have a line concession ongoing, and that is in reality more a formality. We expect to have the line concession, but it's a matter of time, how long it takes. When it comes to the capacity, the best we have we hope for 200 megawatts, but there are still some studies to be made by the grid company during early 2025. So it will take some time until we have a clear understanding. Mm. Okay. Good. And the final question from me, can you shed any light on, on the transaction that you're targeting now in 2024 in terms of size or, or technology or anything? Well, the short answer is no. But at the moment, working on a few different tracks or alternatives. It's difficult to say which transaction and when we will go for. For us, it's a matter of how to optimize value, and it could be so that we... You know, we have the possibility now to decide, the optionality to decide, to wait, to sell later or keep and divest later on. So we'll see. But as said earlier, we have a quite firm ambition to have a transaction this year. I know it's a quite vague answer, but that's how reality looks like. Yeah, and it makes sense, I think. But is it fair to assume that you're not in any sales process at this moment? Uh, pardon? Is it fair to say that you're not in any sales process at this moment? We are working on a few tracks, and so you could say that we are looking into sales, absolutely. Mm. Okay, great. That was all for me. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you. Thanks, Mattias. There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments. Thank you very much for listening. Yes, so some last comment from my side. I think the key word for us is that we made a solid quarter. I think we are quite happy with the results, and I'm quite happy that we continue to deliver positive results. So that's, I think, the main thing for us. Thank you very much, everyone, for listening, and wish that you all have a nice summer.
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