Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nordea's Q2 2026 pre-close call. [Foreign language] Recorded for compliance reasons. This will be an audio-only Teams call. We will keep you muted during the remarks and enable your microphones when we move over to Q&A. If you wish to ask a question. Please use the raise your hand function. We will enter into a silent period on the 6th of July. Please contact us before that if you have further questions. Our Q2 2026 report will be published on 16th of July. This call will focus on what happened back in Q1 relevant public data, and macro trends in our markets. We will go through the macro indicators the P&L statement line by line, and comment on capital at the end. The script will be published on Nordea's financial calendar webpage. We would like to highlight that we will only answer questions related to already disclosed information as well as publicly available data as of the 17th of June. unless otherwise noted. With that, let's turn to macro. Axel, please go ahead. Thank you, Ilkka. Starting with interest rates and policy rates. There was a 25-basis point hike in Norway that took effect 8th of May. The ECB hiked by 25 basis points with effect from 17th of June. Denmark also hiked by 25 basis points with effect from 12th of June. Three month interbank offered rates increased during the quarter. The most notable change was in three month NIBOR, where the average level in Q2 increased by 32 basis points versus Q1. Similarly, in Finland and Denmark the increase was 15- 18 basis points. In Sweden, five basis points. In equity markets the US dollar denominated MSCI World Index was 4.9% higher on average quarter on quarter, while the OMX Nordic 40 index was 0.8% higher. On the fixed income side, the US dollar denominated Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index was 0.4% lower. Remember also to adjust for FX as our reporting currency is euro. US dollar versus euro was 0.4% higher on average quarter- on- quarter. Further on the FX movements, SEK and NOK versus euro are always the key currencies to track. What's relevant for the P&L is the average quarter- on- quarter development. There SEK was 2% lower and NOK was 4% higher. Broadly offsetting each other when also taking our geographical mix into consideration and thereby only a very small effect on P&L lines. Moving to net interest income. In Q1, we reported NII of EUR 1.759 billion. While higher policy rates are expected to support NII over time in the near term. Rate increases may create headwinds through higher funding costs and repricing lags due to customer notification periods. The longer-term net effect will also depend on how rate changes affect credit demand. The lending margin pressure we are currently seeing and deposit pass through. Turning to Q2 and the moving parts. For volumes, we recommend looking at system-level volume data across each market where there are no meaningful changes in recent trends. In Q1, lending volumes contributed EUR 11 million to NII, but this was more than offset by lending margin pressure, which had a negative impact of EUR 20 million. Given the ongoing environment, it's reasonable to expect that lending margin pressure seen in previous quarters will continue into Q2. On top of that in Norway, a two-month notification period for mortgage repricing means the price increase following the May rate hike will not take effect until Q2. Deposit margins will benefit from the policy rate hikes. However, the benefit in Q2 will be very limited given the rate hikes in Denmark and Finland happened late in the quarter. While our Norway business has a lower deposit to loan ratio than in other markets and with a relatively low share of transaction accounts in the deposit mix. In line with our NII sensitivity disclosures the deposit hedge is expected to be a modest headwind in Q2 of around EUR 10 million, reflecting higher short-term rates. Remember that the way the hedge is constructed. We pay the floating short-term rate and receive the fixed long-term rate. Lastly, a few technical items. Day count is expected to contribute around EUR 19 million quarter- on- quarter. As said, FX movements have only a very small effect, reflecting our currency mix with roughly 30% of NII in SEK and 20% in NOK. In addition, the call of a $1.25 billion additional Tier one instrument on 26th of March will have a small positive impact on NII in Q2, quarter-on-quarter. Finally, remember that there is some negative seasonality from the interest on equity or the equity margin as we call it in the NII bridge given lower average equity following the dividend payment made at the end of Q1. With that, let's continue with net fee and commission income. Back to you, Ilkka. Thanks, Axel. On net fee and commission income, we reported EUR 842 million in Q1. Q2 typically includes semi-annual fees, which were around EUR 10 million in Q2 last year and also benefits from a higher day count of around EUR 5 million. For savings fees, as previously highlighted, recent market movements adjusted for effects and asset mix point to a slightly positive effect on average AUM, but no more than low single-digit percent. On brokerage and advisory, we reported EUR 57 million in Q1, compared to an average quarterly run rate of around EUR 50 million over the past three years. Worth noting that Q1 was supported by very high secondary equities trading activity given the volatile markets. Moving on to net insurance results, which amounted to EUR 69 million in Q1, helped by lower claims in Danish insurance products. This also elevated the average quarterly run rate for the past four quarters to EUR 64 million. On net fair value, we always think about this line being worth about EUR 1 billion a year, with the key contribution on the customer side being fairly stable at around EUR 200 million per quarter. You get the more volatile treasury and market-making elements, which can be anything from zero to EUR 50 million in a quarter. In Q1, net fair value amounted to EUR 226 million. After a strong start in the first quarter, March brought extremely volatile market conditions driven in particular by the developments in the Middle East. The resulting sharp increase in the interest rate expectations resulted in losses in our market-making operations in March, undoing the strong start to the year. We also commented that we closed out positions where we needed to, we are back to performing normally in our markets business. Conditions have been more favorable so far in Q2 with volatility but without the sharp directional move in interest rate expectations that we saw in Q1. It's reasonable to expect an improvement on this line in Q2 versus Q1, and for Q2 to be more in line with our regular guidance on run rate on costs. Firstly, as a reminder Q1 included a EUR 190 million expense related to restructuring costs, which was treated as an item affecting comparability and excluded from our 2026 financial outlook. Adjusted for that Q1 costs amounted to EUR 1.375 billion. In Q1, we booked the full-year resolution fee, which amounted to EUR 33 million. In Q2, we will get the yearly salary increases in most of the countries, which will increase staff costs. In Q2, we will also book the full-year fee due to interest-free deposits in Sweden close to EUR 10 million, which has not been reflected in the regulatory fees in the latest consensus. Also remember the minor FX impact, which will increase costs. To sum up, expect costs to be relatively stable quarter-on-quarter adjusted for the item affecting comparability in Q1, of course. In terms of loan losses, credit quality has been very strong. Now that the management judgment buffer has been fully deployed, it is reasonable to expect a generally higher loan loss level than in previous quarters. Closer to our long-term expected level of 10 basis points. On taxes Q1, our tax rate was 23.9% slightly up from 23.5% in Q4. We should expect similar levels going forward. Finally on capital, our CET1 requirement stood at 13.8% at the end of Q1, and the Q1 CET1 ratio was 15.7%. In Q1, we generated capital as normal and quite a lot of that was deployed into growth. We commented that we still see opportunities for growth and work through Q2 before deciding on the right time to do another buyback. There is one specific item for Q2. In late 2025, the EBA published updated guidance on mapping from the financial reporting into the calculation of the operational risk RWA. This is a correction by the EBA that affects the whole sector. That will be implemented now in Q2 and is expected to reduce CET1 ratio by 10- 15 basis points. Regarding equity modeling, just as a reminder Nordea plans to distribute the mid-year dividend for 2026 corresponding to approximately 50% of first half profits in Q3. The board of directors is expected to decide on the mid-year dividend in connection with the Q2 results and subject to their decision the record date of the mid-year dividend is expected to be on or around 6th of August, with the payment date on or around August 13th, 2026, as announced earlier this week. We will communicate the confirmed timeline in connection with the Q2 results. To close off as said, our second quarter report will be released on 16th of July, and our silent period starts on the 6th of July. If you have further questions, feel free to contact us before that. Now let's move over to Q&A. [Foreign language] Magnus, I think you're first up. Yes. Hi. I was just wondering, as you were quite explicit about some of the lines. I would just like to ask your comments on NII there. Should we read it as NII being flat to sort of slightly up quarter-on-quarter? Is that the net sum of everything you said? Is it a reasonable interpretation? I probably would say reasonable. We've said before that we think Q1 was the quarterly trough for NII, and I don't think there's any reason to think that that would not be the case. Still think that in Q2 we'd be a bit up from the Q1. However, as Axel pointed out. There are a few of these temporary kind of timing related items that do affect Q2. Probably the total full benefit from the rate hikes. Of course, is not yet in the Q2 numbers. Those temporary kind of headwinds probably will dampen it a little bit. I think that's fair to say. I think your take is correct. We still expect to be slightly up from Q1 overall. Okay. Thank you very much. That's all for me. Thanks, Magnus. Sophie, go ahead. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I had also one question on the AML or the kind of ongoing case that has been going on for some time in Denmark. I think you have some provisions for it, but you have kind of said that you're fully provisioned. Given that we saw some headlines around the case in Q2, should we expect any other provisions or you still are happy with the provisions that you have? I don't think there's anything new to kind of report or any new information as such out there. We've said on numerous occasions that we do not agree with the prosecutor's view on the topic. We have multiple kind of third party independent legal opinions on the topic. What we've said is that the provisioning we made back in 2019, I think it was, we maintain that we think we are adequately provisioned for all AML related topics. I wouldn't say there's any change in that. Also there's no outcome of the kind of case as such even so that would not be happening yet. I think that's later in the year when we get something on that. We have also indicated that, I think given the pretty stark difference in views here, it's probably fair that you might have appeals once the kind of verdict comes through, and then we'll see what happens after that. I think in short, what we've said is that we feel we're adequately provisioned for any AML topics that are known. Okay. That's very clear. You alluded to the share buyback. Is it fair to assume that we could potentially have a share buyback announced with the Q2 results? We are repeating what Ian said in the Q1 analyst call, I wouldn't draw more conclusions from that. I don't have anything additional to say about that. I think we were quite clear that we will work through Q2 and then see what the position is. Like Ian pointed out at that point as well, in terms of what the expectations on the street are, we feel comfortable with where we are on the topic as such. Okay. Just one final one. We saw some headlines around the FRTB requirements, I was just wondering how should we think about the impact for Nordea. I guess that those impacts are no longer going to come through. Also if you could update where we are on the corporate IRB model approvals. Yeah. On FRTB, it has been pushed back numerous times before. Of course, if pushed back further or completely watered down, then no impact. What we have indicated earlier was that FRTB should add EUR 1.5 billion of RWA, if I remember correctly. Of course, if it doesn't happen, then that doesn't happen. Let's see how it plays out. On corporate IRB, I don't have any updates at this point. Like we have said, the models have been submitted, we should get some feedback probably during the year at least. Let's see when that is, currently I have no information to share on that at the moment. Okay. That's very clear. Thank you so much. Thanks, Sophie. Riccardo, go ahead. Hi Ilkka. Good morning, everybody. Just a quick one, if I may. I'm not sure I understood correctly when you mentioned now that the overlays have been used or completely released, risk cost will progressively move toward through the cycle long-term average. Is this what you said? I'm not sure I got it. Thanks. Yeah. I think the point being there that we've of course had releases in the previous quarters on numerous occasions. Just a reminder that it is fully deployed, so we will not have that buffer that would be deployed. Just fair to assume that we point at the 10 basis points as a long-term average. We have said that on many years it will probably be slightly below that. Still the expectation, I think should be closer to that than where the levels have been in recent quarters. That's the only point. Nothing specific to point out as such, but just a reminder that 10 basis points is what we have talked about in the past. Okay. Thanks. Good clarification. Thanks. Thanks, Riccardo. Jacob, go ahead. Hi. Thank you. Just two quick ones, I guess. First, on the NII, you talked about low margin pressure due to this timing effect. Is that Norway and Finland predominantly you're talking about or are we also seeing something in Sweden and Denmark? Secondly, just on the capital just to be clear. The impact on CET1 this quarter is a 10-15 basis point negative from the op risk situation and would you also deduct the dividends? Will there be an adjustment to the dividend for the interim payment or is it just a normal accrual as you go? Dividends are accrued at that 70% mark. Yes. It would not have an impact in terms of the actual payment of the mid-year dividend for Q2. Accrual is done at max level. That's per regulation. No changes from that. Sorry, what was the first question you had? Just on the timing effects on the lending side. Yeah, exactly. In terms of pressure. Predominantly Norway, given the rate hike in Norway and the notification periods in Norway. Before we can reprice we have an eight-week lag effect notification period there. With rate hike in place before we adjust the mortgage pricing it will take eight weeks at least. That is the temporary negative impact that comes through. Also on the lending margin pointing out, like Axel said, we've seen lending margin pressure as such. I think we continue to have that as well. No change in that. The Norway topic is probably the most meaningful out of the notification period and the lag effects that creates a temporary headwind. Okay, great. Thank you. Thanks, Jacob. Namita, go ahead. Hi. Thanks very much. Can I just ask a quick one on the AT1 in terms of the calculation? The size is $1.25 billion and it's a coupon of 6.6. That's effectively the tailwind to NII quarter-on-quarter? It's not the coupon itself, it's more the swap rate that it's entered into at the time of the AT1. It would be less than that. Okay. The impact is it's a minor positive for the quarter, but it's not quite as big as maybe that calc would indicate. Okay. That's helpful. Thanks very much. Thanks, Namita. All right. Jacob, did you have a follow-up, or is it done? No, sorry. That's all. Hold hand. Okay. Super. All right. I don't think we have any more questions. It's Midsummer tomorrow or Saturday. Anyone in the Nordics enjoy. Anyone not in the Nordics look into Midsummer. It's a fantastic time of the year. We will speak either before the results or on the results day. Wishing you a great start to summer until that. Thanks, everyone.
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