Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NOBA Third Quarter Report 2026 conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star, 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw a question, please press star, 1, and 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Jacob Lundblad, CEO. Please go ahead. Thank you so much. Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of our Q3 report, celebrating one year as a listed company. My name is Jacob Lundblad. I am the CEO, and with me today, I have, as per usual, Patrick MacArthur, our CFO. If we jump into it and flip page, thank you. Often I say that I think NOBA stands out in terms of both operating profile and in terms of financial profile. Celebrating one year as a listed company, this is a good opportunity to briefly recapitulate what I mean by that and what NOBA offers as an investment case. One, as far as specialist banking goes, NOBA is the very clear market leader in the Nordics, operating at size with clear scale advantages versus competition. We are seven times the size of the average competitor in the Nordics, and we have a cost-income ratio which is second to none. At the end of the day, this enables superior competitive position and superior profitability, which is a very good foundation to stand on. Two, we have a focused product portfolio with strong customer value proposition. This is echoed by our customers. We are consistently top-rated in our customer satisfaction service. I think this is important. The customers are obviously the starting point to why we exist. Three, we ride on a mega trend of specialization in the banking industry. Through superior product offerings, specialists have continuously gained market share from the incumbents over the last 20 years. This trend is evident across all our segments. For example, in Private Loans, the high street banks are losing about a percentage point in market share every year. We are one of the major winners in this trend, and we strongly believe that this is a trend that only would continue. Four, data champion with clean and scalable platform. NOBA has actually gone through what most other banks only dream of. We have gone through a full replatforming. I think we are one of very few in this category. Many have tried, and most have failed. Further to that, we are the clear data champion amongst specialists. We have the largest and longest data sets, and I think we are second to none when it comes to our capabilities in underwriting and pricing as well. I think most will agree that this is one of the most important areas as a specialist bank, something we take great pride in. Five, we have a low-risk business model where high profitability delivers earnings resilience through the cycle. Worth reminding about the fact that since inception, which is more than 20 years by now, we have never posted a quarterly loss. Our ambition is actually to deliver around 30% return on tangible equity. This is actually how we steer the business, and I think this is another area that sets us aside from most others here. Hopefully, that was a good reminder about a few of the things that actually sets us apart and why NOBA should be interesting as an investment case. With that said, let's jump into the quarter. Here are a few of the key events. I think Q3 was yet another stable financial quarter with good progress towards our financial targets. We grew with 10% in local currencies, and our loan book now exceeds 150 billion SEK. Private Loans exceed 100 billion SEK, so we're well on track to deliver on our goal to have 250 billion SEK outstanding by the end of 2030. Underlying NIM is stable in the quarter, came in at 8.3%. Cost-income ratio came in as expected at 23%. Our ROTE is at 30%, although slightly helped by seasonality, Q3 often being a very good quarter. This is actually in line with our medium-term target. Cost of risk continued to develop positively and came in at 2.4%. The underlying trends that we've been speaking about are intact. During the quarter, we also had one NPL portfolio sale. Price is again over our book value, which is a testament to our provisions. On the funding side, we issued Tier 2 and senior preferred bonds at good spreads. We also called AT1 and Tier 2 bonds during the quarter. Lastly, on capitalization, we end the quarter at CET1 of 13.2% compared to 13.4% in Q2. The Q-on-Q development here is impacted by high reported loan volume growth due to FX. We are 2.9% above the regulatory requirement, which is strong. The board is hence proposing an interim dividend of SEK 2.70 per share based on Q1 to Q3 profit. All in all, we are happy with the progress and happy with the relatively solid quarter. If we then turn page, I will briefly go through the segments before handing over to Patrick for a deeper look at the financials. Private Loans. Very glad to see that Private Loan portfolio now exceeds 100 billion SEK, a landmark in itself, now at 105 billion SEK. Year-on-year growth was 11% in local currencies. Quite a bit of FX movement in the quarter, which makes reported numbers three percentage points higher. In terms of momentum, we currently see strong growth in Sweden and Denmark, and we see that Norway continue the pickup we talked about last quarter, following the commercial focus we put in here. On NIM, we see a slight pickup underlying at 8.8% versus 8.6% in Q2. Cost of risk continues to develop well, improvements both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by underwriting improvements and also the macro normalization. If we then turn to Credit Cards, underlying year-on-year growth of 10%, positive FX impacting reported numbers. Reported numbers came in at 16%. Germany remains the fastest growing market, slightly shy of 25%, and the Nordics slightly shy of 10%. NIM and cost of risk largely stable. Then we turn to Secured. Good momentum in the segment, year-over-year growth of 12% underlying and 14% reported. We see strong growth in mortgages, both in Sweden and Norway, driven by demand for near-prime mortgages. Equity release continues at a slower pace. NIM largely stable, 3.4 versus 3.5 in Q2. If we look at year-over-year, we see the negative mix effect with a higher proportion of new sales coming from near-prime mortgages with lower NIM, but attractive risk-adjusted returns. Cost of risk came in at 0.7%, which is a step up, but largely driven by base rate expectations, which impacts our provisions in secured. Finally, as mentioned earlier, one of our strategic ambitions is to expand our secured offering, and we are currently working actively on launching equity release in Norway and mortgages in Finland, and we expect to launch sometime during the second half of 2027. With that, I will hand over to Patrick for some financials. Thank you, Jakob. I will now go through the financials, as I am starting off with the first page. As I will go through on the page, I think we have another quarter with good trends and solid delivery across our key financial drivers. Starting off with the loan book on the top, we continue to deliver on our loan growth targets with 10.5% organic FX-adjusted growth year-over-year. Reported growth came in a lot higher, 15%, with significant positive FX effects here. Also this quarter, we see solid growth across all our segments. With that, I am going to the P&L. We have a reported as well as underlying NIM of 8.3% in the quarter, which is well in line with recent quarters. Fee income is, as expected, quite seasonally strong in the quarter and came in at 243 million SEK, which is 4% growth year-over-year, with the growth rate somewhat impacted by a very strong comparative period in Q3 2025. Moving on to expenses, operating expenses, we had a cost-income ratio of 23% in the quarter and 15% growth year-over-year. This is impacted by DBT and FX. Adjusted for DBT, cost-income ratio was 22% and growth 13%. FX also adds around 3% cost growth. Ex-FX and DBT, we had a cost growth of 10%, so quite in line with the loan book growth. On credit losses, we continue to see a very strong trend. We have cost of risk in the quarter of 2.4%, which is down 0.4% year-over-year, and is now the 10th straight quarter of falling cost of risk year-over-year. Summing this up, this gives us an adjusted core operating profit of SEK 1.7 billion and core profit to shareholders of SEK 1.2 billion, and return on tangible equity of 30%, and return on capital employed, excluding accrued dividends, of 32%. I will, however, point out that Q3 is a seasonally strong quarter. Lastly, CET1 is at 13.2%, which is slightly down versus Q2, and the driver here is FX-driven REA expansion. Excluding that effect, we had positive capital generation in Q3. Moving on to loan book growth by segment. Private Loans, we have growth of 10.5%, quite in line with growth rates we have seen the last few quarters and our financial target. All geographic markets are growing here, with strong demand in Sweden and Denmark, while Finland and Norway are showing growth at a somewhat lower level compared to Sweden and Denmark. Credit Cards, we had 9.9% growth year-over-year. Growth is a bit more volatile in Credit Cards given product characteristics. We see continued solid growth in both Nordics and Germany, with Nordics growing at around 9% and Germany 23% year-over-year. In Secured, we continue to see strong growth, with the main driver in the previous quarters being the mortgages, with continued subdued growth in equity release. We move on to the next page on the interest income. I will start off by saying that we overall see a quite stable underlying NIM. We have an LTM NIM of 8.2%, which is the same level as the previous four quarters. However, we do see volatility in individual quarters here. In addition to the effects of day count and intra-quarter FX volatility, we also see rate movements and timing of pass-through having effect in individual quarters here. Q3 reported NIM was 8.30%, and as we outline in the bottom corner, we have a NIM of 8.27% adjusted for intra-quarter FX volatility and day count. While we generally expect to see some negative impact from timing effects of rate changes, this underlying effect was largely offset by other positive factors during Q3. Moving on to operating expenses. We had a cost-income ratio of 22.6% in the quarter and growth 15%. Excluding DBT, that would have been 13% and 22.4%. As mentioned, we have some negative effect of FX here, which adds around 3% to cost growth. Lastly, we again reiterate our target of reaching below 20% during 2027. Credit losses. As mentioned, we continue to see a positive trend here with 10th straight quarter of falling cost of risk, and our cost of risk of 2.4% for the quarter and 2.6% LTM. As previously communicated, we concluded NPL sales of circa SEK 400 million in the quarter with a positive P&L impact. Similarly, as in Q2, we also had a small negative impact from revised macro assumptions from our external data provider of circa SEK 30 million. In addition, we had extra provisions in Secured in the quarter as higher interest rate expectations result in higher provisions within equity release. Moving on to capital. We had a CET1 ratio of 13.2%, which is a margin of 2.9% versus requirement of 10.3%. Tier 1 and Tier 2 excludes the calls that were announced at the end of the quarter and completed now end of October. The board has, in accordance with our dividend policy, proposed an interim dividend of 1,350 million SEK for the EGM to be held end of November, and this is deducted from the capital base. Liquidity ratios continue to be strong with LCR at 144% and NSFR at 108%. Next page, please. Moving on to our return profile and path to target return on tangible equity around 30%. As mentioned, we had 30% return on tangible equity in Q3 in isolation, and as we outline on the page, 27% LTM. We have set a target of being at around 30%, and as we outline on the page, we really have three key levers to get there, and we proceed to continue working with all three. On the risk-adjusted margin side, we see further potential to improve here versus the LTM level, and every 0.1% improvement gives us 0.7% on return on tangible equity. Cost-income ratio with 23%, and we have a target of getting to below 20%. Every 1% improvement in cost-income ratio gives us 0.6% on return on tangible equity. Lastly, we will continue to work with an optimal and efficient capital structure. We have now repaid our 1.4 billion AT1 and 650 million SEK Tier 2, which has called in October, and have hence removed that period of having excess AT1 and Tier 2, and also double costs for a period of time. We will also continuously work with ensuring efficiency at Tier 1 levels, and the board have, in accordance with our dividend policy, proposed a payout ratio of our year-to-date Q3 accrued dividend now in Q4 at the EGM. Jakob. Thanks, Patrik. Last page, you've seen it before, the performance versus financial targets. We have a goal of 10% organic growth and the additional target of reaching 250 billion SEK by the end of 2030. Happy about where we stand, 10% growth in constant currency or 15% reported. All segments contributing additionally, and as talked about, we have a number of new product initiatives underway. Cost-income ratio, median target of 20%, quarter came in at 23%. We expect to see the effect of cost takeout programs during the end of the year, and we remain committed to reach our target during 2027. Cost of the target of 30, circa 30, and we came in at 30 or even 32 if we look at capital employed. So happy about that. CET1 and dividend, strong capital position with 2.9% headroom to CET1 requirements. Focus on efficient capital deployment and distribution of excess capital, and the board proposes the dividend equal to 40% of Q1 to Q3 profits to be paid in connection with the upcoming EGM here in Q4. Lastly, as mentioned already last quarter, the board is evaluating a potential share buyback program. No formal decisions have been made, and further announcements around it will be made when and if relevant. I think that sums it up, and we can move on to Q&A. Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw a question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. Now we are going to take our first question, and it comes from the line of Emil Jonsson from DNB Carnegie. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Thank you very much. Good morning. I would like to ask on the operating expenses in Credit Cards. They rose by about 12% compared to this last quarter. Could you help me understand what drove that increase? Yeah, main factor is FX, I would say. A lot of the cost base, it is a disproportionate proportion of the cost base that is NOK in Credit Cards. It is both, I mean, a bit more than 40% of the book is in Norway. It is also a book where the marketing spend is disproportionately much NOK, and also a lot of the operating expenses are NOK, given that it is based in Nordic operations. So quite a bit of FX dive there. I would also And the last point, or second point there, is when you compare with Q2, is that Q3 is a seasonally high-cost quarter for Credit Cards, when we look at other operating expenses. So, the cash bonuses that we pay to the customers, that we have much higher spend. We have typically much higher spend in Q3, and then also higher other operating expense in Q3 compared to other quarters. Okay. Thank you. That makes sense. The cost takeout efforts that you mentioned from year-end, should we expect to see that effect on staff costs or IT expenses or services or something else? I think that also be on external services and IT. Okay. All right. One last question. I know that this might be a question for the board, but if a share buyback program were to be announced, is there reason to expect that this could, in theory, happen in any quarter, or should you expect it to happen in a Q4 report? Do you see where I'm getting at? I mean, first of all, it is a board question, but I can't see any reason it would be specific to any specific quarter. Okay. All right. All right, those were all my questions, actually. Thank you very much. Thanks. Thank you. Now we are going to take our next question. The question comes line of Patrik Brattelius from ABG. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Thank you. Can you hear me? Yeah. Yep. Perfect. Yeah. My first question is regarding the CET1 ratio. You are at the lower end of your target level. However, you are also well above the requirement level. How should we think about this short term? Is your ambition to increase this to be in the middle of the range, or do you view the current level as an appropriate level that you target to keep short term? I think we communicated on it before. We are very confident to be at the lower end of that range. I mean, remember that we set this target quite a while back, before we had gone through SREP, et cetera. So, we feel a lot more certain about the capital situation today compared to when we set the target. So very, very happy to be at the lower end. With that in mind, how do you view then to change your target? It is a target we communicated, and we currently view it as the right target to have, 13%-15%, where we currently communicate that we are quite happy to be in the low end of that range. I think our guidance has been very clear here. Then there's probably a time and a place to talk about targets as well. Perfect. Thank you. Regarding the loan loss ratio, it improved for another quarter now, and you also completed this NPL sale above the book value you highlight. Can you share how much those sales contributed, and how much further potentially can you see the loan loss ratio improving in your view? I mean, it's around 30 million SEK positive from the sales, so that's kind of the first point. Second point, I think we just reiterate what we said there, which is we see a very positive trend here. This trend is driven, I mean, initially it was driven a lot by normalization of macro, and lately it's very much driven by continuously underwriting improvements. We leave it at saying that we continue to see a positive trend on underlying risk from underwriting here, and a nice trend that we are seeing, but yeah, that's where we will leave it for now. Fair enough. Lastly, more on the demand side. We are seeing unemployment level in Finland rising, and they're showing somewhat softer macro numbers. Are you seeing that reflected in your asset quality indicators as well, and in your loan demand? Does that influence how you will allocate your capital, the common quarters, and looking into 2027? I think if we look at Finland specifically, I think from an asset quality point of view, I think we communicate also we see quite good underwriting improvements in Finland. So on the asset quality side, clearly we are seeing positive trends. We are not seeing any macro weakness at the same time as we are seeing quite meaningful underwriting improvements there. Probably there we are seeing the biggest underwriting improvements. So again, that is the first point. Then the second point, I think it is, I mean, we obviously give the growth rate per market for Private Loans, and Finland is growing a bit slower than Private Loans totality. It is growing, but it is growing a little bit slower, and I would probably think that that is the trend we are seeing in Finland, that Finland is growing a little bit slower than the 10% average, and Sweden and Denmark are growing a bit faster. Perfect. Thank you. No more questions from me. Thank you. Thank you. Now we are going to take our next question. The question comes line of Björn Olsson from SEB. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Good morning, guys. First on the Secured margin. I mean, it's deteriorating quite rapidly, and Jan, you're describing it as a mix effect from approaching more of a sort of near-prime customer group. But, I mean, if you just compare the front versus back book, it's quite a dramatic shift. Is there also some change in competition on price, or is this only a mix effect? Actually, I think there's two mix effects. You have more mortgages than equity release. That's the first mix effect. And in mortgages, you have more near-prime mortgages. We think that we have bottomed out, and we should expect it to be stable going forward, which is evident when you look at the quarter-on-quarter results. I think we communicated in Q1 that we expect a relatively stable net interest margin from the level that we saw in Q1 with 3.4%. Since then, we've had 3.4% in Q1, 3.5% in Q2, and now 3.4% in Q3. I mean, overall, we see quite stable margins here compared to the current level. All right, fair enough. I guess the sort of potential impact from higher rates has been fully reserved now, or if rate expectations would materialize, do we see any more reservations from here? I mean, Secured is all floating rates, so it doesn't really matter for the NIM, apart from kind of the timing. Apart from timing effects, it doesn't really matter for the NIM. No, I was referring to the loss side. the loss side. Yeah, okay. Yes. The way that works is, I mean, so in Secured, the bulk of the credit losses in this quarter, around 25 million SEK, so 0.5% out of the 0.7%, comes from change in interest rate assumptions for the equity release provisions. If we see, if kind of rates stay at a similar level as now, we probably see a similar effect in Q4, and from there on, it's gone. It's kind of a one-off shift where we shift the rates curve, but it's going to be shifted partially in Q3 and partially in Q4. Clearly, if rates come down again, we'll see the kind of reverse possibility. We use the kind of long-term forward curve in provisioning for equity release. When they move kind of in steps as they've done now in Q3, that impacts the provision rate. Okay. If there would be no change in rate expectations from the market as of now, the sort of pro forma loss ratio would be 1.2% in Q4? No, it would be 0.7% in Q4, and then down to 0.2% again. Okay. Okay. We had 0.5% negative impact of the changed rate curve in Q3. If rates stay at the current level, we see a similar effect in Q4, and from then on, back to normal. Then clearly, if they go down again, that effect gets reversed. Makes much more sense. Thanks. Just finally on Credit Cards, because, I mean, sort of from a risk-adjusted NIM, we're sort of seeing the same story here. But I guess on Credit Cards, you take the provisions up front when you grow. But, I mean, with your growth in Germany, one would expect the NIM to improve from mix effects, or how should we view the risk-adjusted NIM to move from here? I mean, I think Credit Cards clearly is a little bit of its own story from our rate point of view, given that this is majority fixed rate, majority fixed rate segment, and quite a lot of Norway. We've clearly seen, it's quite a lot of Norway, quite a lot of euro area. I think that what you're seeing, I think, contrary, you're seeing very stable, and it's going to be a little bit of volatility quarter to quarter here. NIM, you see it marginally down, and that's really a base rate effect. That's kind of the one segment where we expect to see a base rate effect coming through, given that it is the majority base rate. All right. Okay. Thank you. Thanks. Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone keypad. Now we're going to take our next question. The question comes from the line of Ulrik Årdal Zürcher from Nordea. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Yeah. Thank you. Wondering if there's any prospect for stepping up the growth in the Private Loans segment, because it seems like your loan losses are actually too low in that segment and pushing the overall loan loss ratio below your target range, which I don't see the need for when you can grow. Yeah. I think we see our current growth rate as healthy. I mean, this is something we always look at, how to strike that balance, and we think that we've stricken it well so far. We believe that we will continue in this direction. Yeah. We don't have a plan to change the risk appetite to increase growth in Private Loans. No, but it's like your credit, your loan losses are like too low compared to your targets. That's the only reason I'm asking. Yeah. No, but we're kind of obviously seeing underwriting improvements, and that's great. Yeah. All right. Thank you. Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone keypad. Dear speakers, we will just give a moment for our participants. There are no further questions for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Jacob Lundblad, for any closing remarks. Thanks for that. Thank you so much for listening in. Have a great Tuesday. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.
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