Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Nobina's Q3 report for 2021, 2022. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press Star and one on your telephone. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today on Wednesday the 22nd of December, 2021. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Magnus Rosén, CEO of Nobina. Please go ahead. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this Q3 presentation by Nobina. For the quarter, we have net sales, which is SEK 3.4 billion or above SEK 3.4 billion, which is an increase of 20% compared to last Q3 last year. We have an EBITA, which is 410, and if we adjust that for the one-offs that we have, we end up at 437, and that is actually an increase of 42% compared to last year. EBT adjusted is 368, and the cash flow is above SEK 400 million. This is a strong cash flow, and it's again the highest quarterly earnings that we have ever had. It's mainly due to good underlying stable business, especially with a lot of extra traffic, including bus or train, but also efficiency improvements. We continue to have a stable Samtrans performance, and the acquisitions are also adding to this. If we look into what has happened during the last quarter, we have two contract wins in Copenhagen, valued at SEK 780 million. We have two new big contract wins in Stockholm, which are valued at SEK 13 billion over 10 years, and it includes 530 buses of which 300 electric buses. During the quarter, we have had actually two one-offs. One is from the Afa pension fund where we have received a payback of SEK 97 million in Q3, relating actually to the years of 2004 and 2008, so it's really old money you could say. On the other hand, we have taken a shortened depreciation on gas buses, which amounts to SEK 124 million. In total, SEK 27+ million. During the Capital Market Day, we announced partly a new strategy and three new business areas that we will start to report from already this quarter and also in Q4, but mainly starting in the first quarter of next year. We revised the financial targets. Almost two weeks ago, we received a public offer from an infrastructure fund called Basalt. The board have unanimously accepted or are standing behind the offer of SEK 108, valuing Nobina at SEK 9.3 billion. The twenty-fourth of November, we had a Capital Market Day, where we announced new business areas. As I said, we will start to report with those from the beginning of next year. It will be Nobina Bus in the four different countries where we're operating bus operations. It will also be Nobina Care to start with in Sweden and Denmark. It will be Nobina Mobility, which will not mainly be re-reported on figures, but on other KPIs as we are going along. We also have revised financial targets. We are now saying that the annual net sales growth should be at least 7% in the company. We haven't specified the growth when it comes to acquisition or organic, but in total 7%. EBITA margin is not really changed. It's recalculated to another base, which is EBITA then instead of EBT adjusted, and the new level is 6.5%. Net leverage at the same level as we had it before, 3-4 times EBITDA, and the dividend policy of at least 60% of net profits going forward. If we then look at the tendering activities that we've had during the last nine months, there has been 1,774 contracts announced, to be exact, and Nobina has won 930 out of those, and that comes down to a win rate of 52%. We have submitted almost 2,000 tenders, and I would estimate that that's around 90% of the total market for the last nine months. We still have 154 pending tenders. As I said, there has been an announcement of almost 1,800 tenders, where we have won 950. There are still about 170 tenders remaining where we haven't tendered yet, and that will be done in the fourth quarter. If we look at the traffic changes during the last nine months, we see that we have ended 244 buses, but we have, on the other hand, started 245, so almost exactly the same amount that have ended and that have started. We have an average weighted contract length of 9.2 years at the moment. The average weighted contract age is 5.7 years. If you divide those two, you get a maturity rate of 62%, which is slightly on the mature side as we are stating the earnings target on 50% maturity. That will, of course, change going forward as we have quite a few or lots of new contracts the coming 24 months. The average age of the bus fleet is 6.4 years. Looking forward, the coming 12 months, we see that we have ending contracts of 508 buses. We have starting buses of 349, whereof we have new buses, 177 out of those 349. Out of the 177, we have 130 electric buses starting next year, 2022. So, meaning that it's then about 150 buses less that we are starting compared to that we are ending. I hand over to Pernilla. Thank you. This is the highest quarterly earnings in Nobina's history. We reported a net sales growth of 20% for the third quarter. That is equal to an organic growth of almost 14% adjusted for currency and acquisitions. This was primarily a result of a stable growth within the core business, both within public transport and service traffic, and a continued strong performance for the Samtrans COVID-19 related business. In addition to this, acquisition added 6% to the growth in the quarter. This relates to the company's Telepass, Göteborgs Buss, and KE'S Bussar. The EBITDA increased SEK 103 million in the third quarter, and the driver to this were again, the stable development in the core business and the performance of Samtrans. This was also impacted, as Magnus mentioned before, by the lump sum payment of SEK 97 million from Afa Insurance, this pension company, that is related to the year 2004, 2008. In addition, in connection with a decision to shorten the depreciation period for all the group's biogas buses, the quarter is negatively impacted by an impairment of these buses related to historical effects of the shortening of depreciation periods, which give a negative effect on the profits of SEK 124 million. If we then go into the segment, Sweden increased its net sales in the third quarter compared with prior-year period. This is a result of the stable growth in the core business, a higher share of replacement traffic, and continued strong growth within the Samtrans COVID-19 test station business. Net sales for Sweden was also positive, positively impacted by acquisitions. The growth in EBITDA was driven by the stable underlying business, the Samtrans COVID-19 related business and acquisitions. In addition, we have this lump sum payment from Afa that had a positive impact on the result. If we then look into Denmark, net sales was in line with last year as the increase within service traffic was offset by negative currency effects. EBITDA in Denmark was below last year due to negative contract migration effects. Net sales in Finland was lower than last year, but when adjusting for currency effects, we saw a small sales increase in the quarter, mainly from positive index effects. Reduction in EBITDA in comparison with last year is primarily a result of negative contract migration effects from two recent traffic starts. In Norway, we have both an increase in net sales and EBITDA, that was positively impacted by an increase within replacement traffic. On the Capital Market Day at the end of November, we launched a new segment structure, which we will start following at start of the next fiscal year. On this side, you can see how the numbers look like with this coming segment structure. If we start by looking at Nobina Bus Sweden, net sales grew by 10% in the quarter, and EBITDA grew by SEK 140 million. The improved result are mainly driven by a stable development in the underlying business, and also by this lump sum payment that we mentioned before. Nobina Denmark net sales was in line with last year, but EBITDA was below. This was mainly a result of negative contract migration effects. If we then look at the new segment, Nobina Care, the sales grew by 121% versus the same quarter last year, and EBITDA was up SEK 97 million. This was primarily driven by the COVID-19 services continuing at a high level in the quarter and also acquisitions. Sales related to COVID-19 amounted to SEK 281 million in the third quarter of this year. For Nobina Bus Finland and Nobina Bus Norway, there are no changes versus the previous segment structure. If we look at the different items in the bridge, price and volume is the main driver to both the increase in net sales and EBIT adjusted. This is primarily driven by the stable underlying performance in the core business and a strong performance within Samtrans. In addition to this, we saw a positive contribution from acquisitions. Looking at the contract migration, we had a positive effect on net sales, but a negative effect on adjusted EBIT, and this was primarily from contracts started last year in Sweden. If we look at other, this is then impacted by higher depreciation, mainly due to the shortening depreciation period for the group's biogas buses. We had also made some impairment reversals on buses in previous quarters. This is then partly offset by the lump sum payment from Afa Försäkring. Looking into the cash flow for the third quarter, it is stronger than the Q3 last year, and that is mainly due to the strong earnings, but also to some extent, a positive working capital swing. Regarding year- to- date, the cash flow is somewhat weaker than last year, despite the strong cash flow from operation. This is mainly then due to the reintroduced dividends, negative working capital swing, and that last year's Q1 was boosted by an acquisition-related bank loan. In addition, we have a higher level of M&A-related payments, that had negative impact on cash flow year- to- date. Looking at the payback when it comes to the investments, 100% of the new buses acquired year- to- date are electric buses. We have a bit of other investments, and they are roughly at the same level as last year. We have a strong liquidity cash position of almost SEK 1.5 billion. We have an equity ratio of 18.7%, and the net debt EBITDA was SEK 1.9 billion. I then hand over to Magnus. This has been an eventful quarter for all of us, I think we're all a bit used. We have had the highest quarterly earnings, as Pernilla has explained to you now, in the history of the group. We had a really strong cash flow of above SEK 400 million. If we adjust for the impairments, the EBITA was SEK 437 million, which is a growth of 42%, as I said before. The thing that I'm actually most happy with is that we have also a stable underlying business, which is actually just as strong as it was in 2019. You could compare the different quarters despite that we are running with, well, let's say, almost 20% less passengers. It has come through different things. It's other types of businesses, especially ekstratrafikk, as I said, but also, more efficiency in the business. We are also having a strong business within Samtrans, of course. We can see in society that we have increased contamination of COVID-19, and this more or less tells us that the test business is probably increasing in the near future. It's very difficult to predict how long this will continue or not. As it is for the Q4, we can see more testing coming. Nobina will also take a leading role in electrifying the public transport in Stockholm, as we have won the two southern contracts, Nacka/ Värmdö and Huddinge/ Botkyrka. We are introducing 300 electric buses in the spring of 2023, and in total, 530 buses. We had a Capital Market Day the 24th of November, where we introduced new business areas. From the beginning of next year, we will for real start to report the Samtrans business, apart from the Swedish bus business. The three business areas will then be Nobina Bus, Nobina Care, including Samtrans and the subsidiaries, the acquired companies, that we have there. It will also be Nobina Mobility, which is mainly the Travis app. The Travis app on that sector, we will, to start with, not report the figures as much as downloads and other KPIs like that. At January 14 will be the last day actually for accepting the Basalt public offer on Nobina, which is on SEK 108, and it has been approved or actually the board is standing unanimously behind this bid. Of course, for us, we don't know more than you do about this, where the acceptance rates are at the moment and so on. We have to wait to see what will happen after the 14th of January. With that, I would like to hand over for questions. Operator? Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press Star and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel that request, please press the Hash key. Once again, it's Star and one on your phone if you wish to ask a question today. At this time, we do have one question on the line. This comes from the line of Johan Sundén of Carnegie. Please ask your question. Thank you. Two quick questions from my side. The first, the impairment on the biogas part of your fleet, how will that impact the depreciation rates going forward? You mentioned that you will shorten the depreciation period. Will that boost the depreciation going forward, or how should that look like? The second is on the replacement traffic. How sustainable is these levels and should that swing back in the next few quarters? If Pernilla can add maybe, but if I start with the gas buses, this is a shortening of the depreciation time, which is taken backwards. There is also an effect going forward until the contracts are completely terminated. The amount, the retroactive amount is SEK 124 million, and the forward amount is about Pernilla? SEK 30 million. SEK 30 million. Yeah. That's the answer on that. How long that lasts for? I don't think we could calculate it, but we haven't done it. It's a few years or so. There are probably contracts like this which are in the system that last for maybe five years also, I would say. Going forward, it's quite obvious that we will, because there is sometimes a demand still for biogas buses. Those buses will be written off during the contract period and nothing else than that. As we see that it's becoming difficult to optimize these buses into new contracts. Which one was the second question? That was, On the replacement traffic. On replacement traffic. That's right. Replacement traffic, I think, that's quite strong, I would say, going forward. Of course, it's unplanned replacement traffic and it's planned replacement traffic. It varies a little bit how difficult it is with the rail and the tracks. The more unplanned we get, in general, the more money we make. But it's easier to run the planned replacement traffic, if we say so. It's a little bit hard to say the exact volume. I would say that we have about 50/50 as it is now. The unplanned is more difficult to predict. But in general, we have the contract for the replacement traffic. Our market share in Sweden is around 75%. In Norway, outside of Vy, it's definitely high also. We're doing it, you could say also in Finland and Denmark, but it's more for the subway and trams in Finland than in Denmark, I mean. Perfect. Thank you so much. That was all for me. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time, but as a gentle reminder, it's Star and one on your phone if you wish to ask a question. It looks like there are no further questions at this time. Okay. Back to you, Magnus. Okay. Very good. We must have been very precise and told the story very well. A few questions. Thank you very much for this Q3 presentation. Of course, we will see if we will probably meet in some way, but we'll see if we'll meet in Q4 then. Thank you very much. That does conclude our conference call today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Loading workspace