Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Q3 2023 report of Nordic Paper. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your touchtone telephone. Please press the star key followed by zero for operator assistance. I would like now to turn the conference over to Henrik Essén. Please go ahead. Thank you very much. Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of the Nordic Paper Q3 Report 2023. My name is Henrik Essén, and I'm Head of Investor Relations at Nordic Paper. As usual, I have the pleasure of introducing our CEO, Anita Sjölander, and CFO, Niclas Eriksson, for the presentation today. The floor is yours, Anita. Mm-hmm. Thank you, Henrik, and very happy and also proud to share the results today. We are again proving the strength of our business model, and we are doing so also with a strong result that we have achieved in continued soft and challenging markets. Important factors, always to Nordic Paper, but especially in times like these, are our focus on specialty paper, on stable niches and uses for our paper. We have a majority of our sales to food sector, and we have lowered our exposure to more volatile end uses, such as the building industry. And the long-term relationships also with our customers is a really valuable asset. So that's why we can achieve this great result also in challenging times like this. And I would also like to highlight our very strong balance sheet, but we will come back to that later in the presentation. So since the last report, we have performed our annual maintenance stops in all our production units, important, recurring events to keep being an efficient and reliable, supplier of high-quality specialty paper to our more than 800 customers. I started in this business, more or less 30 years ago, and my first assignment was actually to be a project leader in one of these maintenance stop, and since then, I participated in very many of those. So I know firsthand the amount of work that is put into preparations to these stops. And Niclas, you are CFO in the company, but you also participated in, in the maintenance stop by being in a safety round not so long ago. So what's your takeaway and impressions after that? Mm-hmm. Yes, I did. And, I was impressed by the plant management's cooperation with the contractors, with focus on safety, to maintain a safe and calm environment. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, a safe work environment is the first of our three focus area when it comes to sustainability, and we have targets there to reduce the frequency of lost time incidents. I joined the company 2018. I had the pleasure of being CEO since 2019, so I have been part of this improvement journey to provide a safer work environment in our company, and I'm very proud of the results that we can present. It's a lot of work, great work done by our leaders and employees in the company. So, now we can see the needle turning to a very positive level, and we're actually overperforming compared to our current target, so that's great. For new listeners and for those well acquainted to the company, a friendly reminder, I will do a very short highlight of the company. We're a global supplier of specialty paper, more than 800 customers all over the world, and Europe is our main market, with 2/3 of our net sales. We have two segments. They are different kind of papers. It's the Kraft Paper segment, and it's the natural resource segment. We have customers that are turning these papers into products used for handling, packaging, transporting, protecting different kinds of goods. It can be food, but it could also be other kinds of goods. And we also have customers that are turning our paper into products for industrial applications. And we, as end consumers, get into contact with these kind of papers. I describe a little bit more when we get to the information about the segments later in the presentation. The fact that we have these two business segments, that has different business dynamics is also beneficial when it comes to the stability and balancing the results of the company. I think this is also well proved in this quarterly report. That was a very short overview of who we are, and now it's time to get into the financial numbers. Another strong quarter from Nordic Paper. We are again delivering a very strong result. We have an EBITDA of SEK 108 million, compared to last quarter, SEK 77 million. In this result, we have a positive one-off effect of SEK 20 million. That is the support from the government, Swedish government, when it comes to high electricity costs. SEK 20 million, adjusting for that, is an underlying result of 88, so still an improvement compared to quarter three last year. When it comes to the market in quarter three, there's no big change actually from quarter two. It has remained soft, and some de-stocking has continued also along the value chain. So that's a short-term perspective on our market. Long-term, there is a growing demand for both our segments, for Kraft Paper and greaseproof paper. And we are also well-positioned as a producer of renewable material, replacing synthetic material, not least to be part of the climate change fight. Strong cash flow at SEK 301 million, and our net debt to EBITDA ratio has now moved down to 0.9, compared to the 1.6, quarter three last year, very low, and also well below our target of 2.5. Earnings per share for the rolling twelve months is 8.28 SEK. And, during quarter three, we took the decision to invest SEK 850 million in Bäckhammar, that is our largest production unit. From 2026, when the equipment is up and running, we will have annual benefits of approximately SEK 100 million. We'll come back to some more details around this later in the presentation as well. But first, the development of net sales and the EBITDA margin. Looking back at 2022, we have the three latest years in these graphs. Looking back at 2022, that was a very strong year with several new quarterly records. And so the comparison is tough. When it comes to quarter three, we have a net sales of SEK 1,077 million, an improvement by 4% to quarter three last year. And that is with a tailwind from currency that we are then above last year. An EBITDA of SEK 108 million turns out to an EBITDA margin of 10%. And looking in the graph on the right-hand side, you can see the typical seasonality pattern that we have in Nordic Paper. We do perform our annual maintenance stops for all our plants in quarter three. In connection to that, we have maintenance costs, and we also have downtime in the production during this time, so losing out a little bit on the production volume. So compared to last year, we are on 10%, last year, we are 7.4. Maintenance costs were in line what we had predicted and share our outlook of. Maybe also worth to mention, looking at this slide, is a step change we have from 2021- 2022, and that is the acquisition we made of our Canadian asset in Québec. So from first of January 2022, they are included in our numbers as well. We have very strong sales volumes in this quarter. I think I forgot to mention it on the first slide, but if looking at next slide, we see that we have an increase of 9% when it comes to sales volumes. Excuse me. In these market conditions that I talked about initially, soft market conditions, almost the same as quarter two, there's been some stock adjustments at the customers. The situation with the global supply chain is currently makes it possible for our customers to place their orders later and still receive their volume well in time. So that has been the situation for us during this quarter as well. What we see when it comes to our different markets is that Europe is the more challenging market, and when it comes to the Kraft Paper segment, it is the MG paper where it's most evident. It's the same for the greaseproof segment, that Europe is the most challenging market, and there in quarter three, it has been the baking cup paper that has had effect on. North American market still holding up, and Asia is stable. So compare, in this situation and compared to last year, we improved the volumes by 9%. We have, in this increase, a higher production compared to quarter three last year. We've sold partly from inventory as well. And the reference Q3 last year, we had a bit lower production output. So great work by team in Nordic Paper to achieve this good improvement. I mentioned that we have two segments in the introduction, and now we will get into the results for these two, and I will start with the Kraft Paper segment. Just a very brief resource. Kraft Paper, we are producing unbleached Kraft Paper in Nordic Paper in two production units. It's all based on our own production of unbleached pulp, and we are sourcing our raw material, pulpwood, around our largest production unit. Our customers are converting this paper into sacks and bags of different sizes. Can be for flour, sugar, grain, pet food, et cetera. It can also be e-commerce bags and other industrial end uses. The market, I mention now, it has remained soft. Destocking continued for Kraft Paper segment as well. We reached net sales of SEK 546 million, which is a decrease by 2% compared to quarter three 2022. It has been some changes when it comes to the market. Initially, we had some lower sales when it came to absorbent, then the steel, Steel Interleaving paper was a little bit slow, slower, and now the MG paper in quarter three. So there are some waves when it comes to different demand for the different product types in this segment. But nevertheless, sales volumes in tons increased by 8%, but with the market situation and the price pressure that we have experienced, prices have decreased by 11% in local currency. Maintenance stops in these two production units we have, and the related costs were according to plan. And with some higher raw material costs when it comes to pulpwood and sawmill chips, the EBITDA margin is a bit lower than at 11.8%. The next segment, the Natural Greaseproof segment. First of all, some words about this kind of paper. It's a greaseproof paper, and once upon a time, it all started as a wrapping paper for butter and margarine. Now we have developed this paper, and the main product is the baking paper, but we're also producing baking cup. We are also producing bacon layout paper and some paper also for the textile industry and for food containers. The name Natural Greaseproof, we have chosen just to highlight that we are not adding any PFAS or requirements to achieve this quality some of our competitors are doing so. Three production units, one in Sweden, one in Norway, and one in Canada since 2022. Looking at the graph, you can see this is a great result for Greaseproof segment. Four quarters in a row, improved EBITDA margin, and especially good now in quarter three with a maintenance stop to achieve an EBITDA margin is 11.4%. Market situation, the same, slower in Europe, but North America, more or less the same. Net sales increased by 8% to SEK 536 million, and if we exclude the currency effect, we are still on an increase by 2%. Also in this segment, we have, compared to the last quarter, lowered the product prices, but compared to quarter three last year, we are still 1% higher when it comes to our product prices. Positive for this segment is the input cost development, where pulp and electricity costs were substantially lower. Yes, and we can also comment, now, these two segments, I said, talked about the balance and between these segments. Now, quarter three, we are on almost the same net sales for both segments, and the EBITDA margin as well is almost on the same level. And then now I would like to hand over to Niclas, CFO, and he will guide you through the development year on year. Thank you, Anita, and let me take you through the financial part of the presentation, and we will start with the quarterly trends. So Q3 is the quarter when we have our maintenance stops, which reduce our production in the quarter and normally affect also the sales volumes compared to the other quarters during the year. Compared to Q3 2022, we have managed to reach higher sales volumes this year in total, and especially in Kraft Paper, where we have sold more paper and also some pulp. This gives us a positive volume effect and negative mix, but in total, the volume and product mix is a positive to the net sales. Sales prices have, at group level and in Kraft Paper segments, been lower than last year, while Natural Greaseproof has been slightly higher than last year's quarter three. When we look at the EBITDA, we can see that we have generated an increase of SEK 31 million during this quarter compared to last year, but we want to again point out that we have a one-off effect of SEK 20 million disclosed in other, and related to the Swedish government's support for electricity prices. Volume and mix gives on EBITDA level a negative effect related to the different mix compared to last year. The negative price effect we saw in net sales have, of course, the corresponding effect to the EBITDA. Variable costs are on total level, significantly lower than last year, but with a large difference between the segments. In Kraft Paper, we have seen significantly higher prices for pulpwood and chips, while Natural Greaseproof have seen lower prices for the pulp. The lower energy cost is, of course, positive to both segments, but mainly to Natural Greaseproof, where the energy input is higher per ton produced. Fixed cost is slightly higher than last year, related to the planned higher cost for the maintenance stop, but also to the yearly salary agreements. We move to the year-to-date figures, and we start with net sales. Volume and product mix have had a negative effect related to the voluntary production curtailments that we have made during 2023 to defend our prices. Increase of net sales of SEK 270 million year to date have been reached through higher prices and also positive currency effects related to the stronger invoicing currencies. The year EBITDA year to date have increased by SEK 45 million compared to last year. Volume and mix is negative, but higher prices are positive to the EBITDA. The effect of variable cost is at group level almost zero, but we see a large difference between the segments again. In Kraft Paper, we have had a large increase for pulpwood and chips, but we see lower costs for almost all other input materials. The main positive effects come from energy, but also the average price for pulp have been lower than last year. The positive currency effect we saw on net sales is from EBITDA level to a large part, offset by the input material costs that we have in other currencies. We continue to have a strong focus on our working capital and cash flow. Q3 is a quarter where we normally have a reduced working capital and increased cash flow, since we sell from stock during the maintenance stops. In compared to the same quarter last year, we have managed to have an even further reduce of working capital and also an increased cash flow. When we look at the financial position, it has continued to strengthen. We have now a net debt of below SEK 800 million, compared to SEK 1.1 billion last year. The net debt to EBITDA relation is 0.9, clearly within the target to be below 2.5, and also significantly lower than last year's figure of 1.6. This strong financial position gives us a good starting point, when we now have projects decided for our plant in Bäckhammar. So, Anita, can you tell us a bit about that? Yes. Thank you, Niclas. Excuse me. Yes, at the end of August, we took the decision to invest SEK 850 million in Bäckhammar, the largest production unit that we have, and a great and important development of this site. The investment consists of one part of a new wood room. This new wood room will give us a strategic flexibility when it comes to sourcing the raw material for the production, and it will also improve the efficiency in the production. So we have some gains from that as well. The other part is a new electrostatic filter system, that is a cleaning system for the flue gases, and it will substantially improve the sustainability performance for Bäckhammar. The investment will be carried out during some time. We have plans to do them during 2023-2025, and in 2026, the equipment will be up and running. And from, starting from there, we will have the benefit of approximately SEK 100 million on annual basis. And since the decision end of August, the project team, of course, have started to work, and we have completed the first contract agreements now with some of the suppliers during this quarter. So moving forward with this project in Bäckhammar. So when it comes to our ambitions, when it comes to sustainability, environment is, of course, one of them to improve the, our environmental performance, like we do here in Bäckhammar. Another one is the social perspective and to improve the safe work environment, like I mentioned earlier in the presentation, and this is just the proof and the numbers, the result of very hard work to improve in this area. And we have the target to be below 9 when it comes to the frequency of lost time incidents. And we are now, when it comes to 2023, on the level of 5, and also the level of on rolling 12 months is below the target. So very proud of the great work done in the organization to achieve this nice, excellent result. Well, that finalizes the report, and we always share our view for the coming quarter, quarter four, and this is what we see looking forward. We assess that there will be no major change when it comes to the market conditions. We think they will continue to be stable also for quarter four, and with that, continued soft demand. There will be some general price pressure remaining as well with this situation, where there's more material remade available on the market and possibility to place orders later with the efficient supply chains. We will use the possibility to reduce sales volumes also in quarter four. When it comes to our cost side, we have now seen, well, the pulp price have decreased during 2023, but we now see the first signs, announcements of increases when it comes to pulp prices. So we believe it will increase somewhat for Nordic Paper during quarter four. We also assess that there will be some further price increases also for pulpwood and chips in quarter four. So with that, we would like to hand over to you, and we're happy to answer any questions that there might be. Over to you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star, followed by one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star followed by two. If you're using speaker equipment today, please leave the handset before making your selections. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Johannes Grunselius with DNB Markets. Please go ahead. Yes, hello, everyone. This is Johannes Grunselius. I have a question on how you view inventories in your key end markets. I mean, in other forestry products, there are a lot of talks about the brutal inventory cycle coming to basically an end. Are you seeing similar things in your end segments? That's my first question. Well, we think, we have 800 customers, so there's a lot of, customers. So, I think it is varying between the, both the segments and between customers, what kind of situation they have currently. Some have the stock, the stocking ongoing and continuously, continuously as well right now, while some see some, some lower inventory levels that they have is enough at the moment. But it's very large variation as we have so many customers all over the world. But as I said in the presentation, there has been kind of waves. Initially, when it came to Greaseproof, it was the baking paper customers that, ordered less volumes. That has picked up, again. Now it is the baking cup customers that are ordering less volumes, and we have similar things happening in the Kraft Paper segment, when initially during the year, it was absorbent paper, then it was the Steel Interleaving paper, and right now it's the MG. So I think it is, it's not, it's not possible to conclude for the same situation for all the customers. It's varying quite a lot. But hopefully, we will see some end and return to more normal market situation. And one more factor, just to add in, is the price pressure in the market. Of course, customers, if they can, they will wait longer to place their orders in an expectation of lower prices, and they have been able to do so as well during this year because there is availability in the supply chain system, so they can order later and get it faster. So I think there are different factors impacting this situation, but hopefully, we will return soon to a more normal situation in the market. Okay. Okay, thanks for that explanation. I'm also having a question on your outlook for the fourth quarter, and maybe I missed out this in initial part of your presentation. But when you talk about price pressure, I suppose this is a maybe 2%-4% down on group, maybe. Can you comment on that? And are you seeing that Greaseproof paper is much more resilient? How should we think about that, you know, that versus Kraft Paper? Mm-hmm. Well, we did see in quarter three, an average of prices down by roughly 6%. We estimate that there will continue to be some price pressure, and our best estimate right now is that it might be half of that magnitude for quarter four. And we will see price pressure in both segments. When it comes to percentage-wise, we have to remember that greaseproof papers are on a much different price level compared to the Kraft Paper. So when it comes to percentage, they might differ a bit. But on average, we estimate that for Nordic Paper as a total, half of the level of quarter three, quarter two to quarter three. Okay. Then my final question is on, on your volumes. They were, I think, clearly up year-over-year. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think they were clearly up year-over-year. Would you say that this is a reflection of, this reflects you gaining market share, or, or any thoughts on that, why, why your volumes were, were this high in, in the third quarter? ... Yeah, I think there's a combination of reasons for achieving that increase. One is that we could produce for the end users and the product types that we had a good market, so good production in those areas. We did sell some volumes from the inventories as well for these end users. We had slightly lower production in the comparison quarter. So, I think it's reflecting the strength of our market situation for some of our products, but it's also the proof of our strength of the customer relationships. And I think that the strength and the value there is that they do place orders with us. I think that we could be, that we are not only retaining our market shares, but if they are placing more orders with us, it's possible that we also are slightly up when it comes to the market share with some of our customers. Okay, understood. Thanks a lot. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Martin Melbye with ABG. Please go ahead. Hi. Good morning. Coming back to the Q4 bridge, you have a longer price lag on pulpwood than others, usually. So how big of a price increase do you think there will be for you in Q4? Yes, we agree. We see in the market now there are some indications on the contrary as well. I think we have done a good job to hold our prices at this level where we are right now. But we see in our contact with suppliers that there will be some remaining cost increases. Niclas, I don't know if you want to add something on that? Yeah, it's a lag, exactly, and we will see some, but it yeah, like the increase we have seen in the recent quarter, maybe. Mm. A couple of tens of SEK to the price. Per cubic? Per cu m, of course. Mm. Yes, yes. 20-30 SEK per cu m. Yeah. Great. And then a question also, so what is your normalized EBITDA, you think? So historically, you've generated, like, SEK 450. Now, in the last two years, it's more like SEK 750-SEK 800. Where is the normal level? Yes, it is a step change, of course, very much driven by the product price increases we achieved in 2022. So, the new, the new normal, yeah, I would say we've—Let's finalize this year and continue to work hard to achieve this kind of level, as high as possible, of course. I think we can't look into the crystal ball too far ahead, but we are very happy that we are now on a much higher level compared to previously. And also to re-remember, we do also have the addition of Nordic Paper Québec in the numbers right now. Sure, but that is minor compared to that big step change. Mm. Is there more price decreases coming in the new year, say, on Kraft Paper, or is it holding from the level in Q4, you think? We do normally share our outlook for the coming quarter, and we don't normally share further than that. The length of the price agreement with customers, I think that's the length of time that we, with some confidence, can share our view. So I think we will stick with our quarter four guidance on the price development. Sure. Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone. Once again, to register for a question, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further audio questions at this time. I hand back to management for any written questions. Thank you. Thank you. And we see that we actually, in this Q&A, we got answers to the written questions that we have got in advance. So we hand over to Anita. Yeah. Yeah, thank you. Before ending this presentation, I would just like to reiterate our message with a very short summary of quarter three and our outlook for quarter four. When it comes to the market, they have remained soft during quarter three, with destocking at customers, and we also expect that there will be no large changes going into quarter four. We expect the market to remain soft and with some general price pressure as well. But, when it comes to our results, I think we have now, for several quarters, proven that we are well-equipped to manage these challenging circumstances. And we, this quarter, achieved an EBITDA at SEK 108 million. And also in this, market situation, we managed to increase our sales volume by 9%. Together with our very strong balance sheet, we have a strategic flexibility going forward. Thank you all for listening in. I'll hand over to Henrik for final comments before we close. Yeah, and the final comment from me will be: thank you very much for participating in this call, and we look forward to seeing you again, or at least hearing you again, at the Q4 presentation, which will be in the end of January next year. Looking forward to that. Thank you and goodbye. Mm-hmm. Thank you very much. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.
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