Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Nordic Paper Yearly 2023 Report conference call. I am George, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Henrik Essén. Please go ahead. Thank you very much, and warm welcome to this presentation of the 2023 year-end report for Nordic Paper. My name is Henrik Essén. I'm Head of Investor Relations at the company, and I'm joined today by the Nordic Paper CEO, Anita Sjölander, and CFO, Niclas Eriksson. Please go ahead, Anita. Mm-hmm. Thank you, Henrik. Very happy to be here today to present the quarter four and the full year result of Nordic Paper. We have been almost one year now into more challenging market environments, and there's been more challenges with the softer demand, of course, increased competition, and also a strong push for lower prices in the market. But, in these tougher conditions, I'm proud that we continue to deliver good results. We do that in quarter four, like we have done the previous quarters in 2023. I've been almost 30 years now in this business, in the pulp and paper industry, and of course, seen many ups and downs in the business through these times. I've now been a bit more than five years with Nordic Paper, almost five years as the CEO of Nordic Paper, and of course, also seen more than a business cycle in Nordic Paper. What is very evident is that the two segments that we have in this company, which moves differently in a business cycle, they are adding stability to the financial results of Nordic Paper. Something else that is also stabilizing is the high exposure we have to the food sector, which is a more stable end use for the paper we are producing. Also the high-quality specialty paper, and that we have so many customers, globally, and also loyal customer base, that also supports the stability of the company. So it is a robustness, and we have ability to continue to deliver results despite these challenges circumstances. Even though we have seen a tougher situation and with softer demand the last 12 months, we are very confident that the demand for our specialty paper is growing, both in the existing applications we have for the paper, but also increasingly with sustainability as a strong driver, we see possibilities where we are replacing plastics. Of course, it is based on our paper being based on renewable resources in comparison to the fossil-based. Of course, lots of existing applications, but also new ones that are coming up, like a customer, for example, wanting to replace the plastic bubble wrap that is protecting goods when transporting with a paper-based version of this. So lots of opportunities when it comes to the sustainability opportunities. So it's a full year as well, so I think it's worthwhile to take just one minute to look back on the year 2023. Niclas, what's your takeaway, and what's your highlights of 2023? Mm-hmm. I think there are a lot of good things to think about, but my first takeaway is, of course, the EBITDA level that we have managed to reach, despite all the challenges on the market. I think also we have, as normal, been good at focusing on costs, cost control, our sales prices, and also focus on keeping the working capital in control. What are your takeaways? Well, first of all, very, very proud and very grateful for the development that we have achieved in the area of work environment. We have now a step change when it comes to the lost time incident frequency rate. Very happy about the great work done in the organization. Also grateful for the trust we have seen from the customers. This is not only 2023, of course, this is a long-term trust that we have with the relationships we built with our customers. But also grateful for the trust we've seen with the increasing number of shareholders during 2023. We have welcomed a large increase in the number of shareholders that want to be a part of the future of our company. Last year, we were with one of the Swedish large retail brokers on shares. We were the company had the largest increase of number of shareholders, so very grateful for that trust in the company. A lot of good things when we look back, to continue to build Nordic Paper on and continue to create value. I will take now just one minute before we start getting into the results to make this short overview level as a courtesy to the new shareholders that might be listening in to our report, and as a friendly reminder to those of you that know the company very well by now. A very short, overview of the company, is that we are a global supplier of specialty paper. We have more than 800 customers all over the world. Europe is our main market, where we have two-thirds of our net sales. As mentioned, we have two segments in the company, the first one being kraft paper and the other one being natural greaseproof. I'll get back to that later, what's the two segments. The specialty paper that we are producing goes into handling, packaging, transporting, and protecting different kinds of goods, majority being food, but we also have other applications in industrial end uses. We, as end consumers, get in contact with these kind of papers on an everyday basis. But that was a short overview, and now it's time to start sharing the results. Robust results in the trough of the market. We have a track record of delivering strong results, and during our time as a public company, we have produced many quarterly reports now, and I think we have proved the stability of the company through all these results. That we, in a changing environment that we're faced during these times with challenging market conditions, we've been through pandemic, we have logistic change challenges, we have had raw material increases, energy price hikes, we have uncertain political circumstances with general inflation, and we've also done our first acquisition. And through all this, we have continued to deliver a stable financial performance, and we proved this again in quarter four, a robust, robust result. Market, no big change in the market. It has remained soft. We continue to be better in North America and Asia, and Europe, our biggest market, largest market, we've had severe competition and price pressure. And for these reasons, we have lower prices and lower sales volume. So net sales is down to SEK 971 million. We have an EBITDA result, SEK 170 million, which is corresponding to the margin of 17.5%. We have a great result for Natural Greaseproof. We have an all-time high EBITDA in this quarter, SEK 95 million. Our net debt to EBITDA ratio continued to be on a very low level, moving from quarter three to quarter four, from 0.9 to 1, and this is, of course, very much below our target to be 2.5. Also want to share that we see some positive signals from the market as well, that we have seen, probably seen the trough of the market. Inventory levels are decreasing at our customers, and we see increasing order intake as well. Since this is a quarter four report, we are also sharing the proposal for the dividend, which is 4 SEK per share. Let's look into the development of net sales and EBITDA. On this slide, we are sharing three years development for both net sales and EBITDA margin. And if we start looking on the net sales development, first of all, there is a step change between 2021 to 2022 and 2023, and one part of that is the acquisition we made of, of the Canadian operation, Glassine Canada, which is from first of January, included in our reporting, January 2022. It's already been two years. Doesn't feel like only two years. Well acquainted with that organization and the facility right now. But from first of January 2022, they are included in the numbers, and also what you can see, of course, is 2022 was a great year for Nordic Paper. Several new quarterly records, all-time high EBITDA last year. So it is tough comparisons when we get into 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, as you can see in the net sales, that's the new quarterly record for net sales. So we've continued into 2023 in the first quarter, and then you see net sales decreasing, and in quarter four, 2023, we are on SEK 971 million. And that is, as I mentioned just before, it's a result of the market situation where we have reduced volumes and had price pressure. And on the EBITDA margin side, with EBITDA of SEK 170 million, this is giving us the margin of 17.5%. Talked a bit about the sales volume. If we go over to the next slide, we will see the development the last two years when it comes to the sales volumes. Overall, looking at the volumes, it is fairly stable overall. While 2022 was a stronger year, in quarter two, we started to see the softer market. We also seen that in quarter four, continued lower sales volumes. Softer market in Europe, little bit better in North America and Asia. So customers have continued to decrease their inventory levels, and as we have seen improved efficiency in the logistic chain, they have also been able to run their operations on lower stock. They've also seen the possibility to place orders later and still get their paper in time. So, what we've seen in quarter four, like we did in quarter two and quarter three, some lower volumes when it comes to baking cup paper from the Natural Greaseproof segment, and also in the kraft paper segment, industrial papers that have end users in the building industry, like steel interleaving paper and also absorbent paper. With the situation that we have seen in the market with the price pressure, we have chosen also to balance our production and sales volume to protect our margins. So that is the main reason, the lower volumes, to the lower volumes. In addition, we do have some production disturbances in this quarter. It's been really cold weather with low temperatures in December, especially, which has created some challenges in production. Also what we see end of December was the geopolitical crisis we had in Middle East. That is also lowering our sales volumes a bit, increasing slight inventory levels then. In total, there's a reduction of 8% when it comes to our sales volumes in the quarter. As I described, we have two segments in Nordic Paper, and I would like to, to describe them individually now, and I will start with the kraft paper segment. Continued soft markets for kraft paper. Just to describe shortly, as I promised in the introduction here, I'll just describe what is kraft paper. This is our strong unbleached kraft paper that we are producing at two production sites in Sweden. All our paper is based on our own internal production of unbleached pulp, and we are sourcing the raw material for this production in the close vicinity of the largest plant, Bäckhammar, in Sweden. Our customers in this segment, they are buying our paper, converting it into different sacks, bags, and packaging, mainly for food, but it's also for other kinds of goods, and it's also for industrial end uses. If you go into a grocery shop, you will meet our paper in the form of bags for breads and vegetables and fruits, et cetera. I just want to remind you that kraft paper was a really, really strong driver for our great results, 2022. So now we have a great result to compare with. When we look at quarter four now, you see also in the graph, we have a decrease in the net sales by 25% compared to quarter four, 2022, which was extremely strong. Main reason is price, but also volume in quarter four. We've done containments, we had the production disturbances that I mentioned, but also the logistic challenges in Middle East that increased the inventory levels. The cost of raw material have increased, the pulpwood, the prices have increased in quarter four, but we also have compensating and offsetting this reduction in other input costs. So the EBITDA margin for quarter four, 17.4% for this segment. As mentioned before, positive signals from the market that there's a growing need, and we see some positive development for the order intake. MG paper in this segment has been stable throughout this year, more or less, but what we see more positive on the other product groups now. We've also seen related to possibilities when it comes to freight costs, but also changing market situation in North America, that we have possibilities to find new customers in North America when it comes to our industrial papers, such as absorbent and steel interleave. So there's some still positive signals there as well. So that was the kraft paper segment, and I would like to describe, of course, the Natural Greaseproof segment as well. As you see on the headline here, some positive news, all-time high EBITDA for Natural Greaseproof. But I'll start with just a short description here as well on what kind of paper is this? This is a paper with greaseproof properties, excellent for using in contact with food. Started once upon a time with margarine papers. That's not very large part of our sales nowadays, but that's where it started once upon a time. In this segment, we are producing this kind of paper in three production units, one in Sweden, one in Norway, one in Canada. It is baking paper; it's baking cup paper. We also have some for industrial use, for the textile industry. We also have bacon paper. So some different kind of applications for this paper. Very happy, of course, to report this great result for quarter four. You can see in the graph now we have five quarters with an improved level of profitability for this segment, despite that the market has remained soft and the destocking at our customers has continued, and despite that, we also reduced our sales volume. So the EBITDA, the new record we have for quarter four is SEK 95 million, and primarily driven by lower input costs. We have seen reduced the prices for pulp, freight, energy. Did I miss something here, Nicholas? Yeah, I think chemicals. Chemicals as well. Yeah, thank you. As well. Yeah, thank you. An EBITDA margin of 18.7%. Here also, this is what I talked about in the beginning, the balance between the two segments. Here you can see an increased profitability in this segment, as we see the opposite on the kraft paper segment. End of the year, also sharing the summary for 2023, the key highlights. I think we mentioned now several times, the market softened during the year, saw it from quarter two, and it has remained soft until end year. Net sales, nevertheless, net sales increased by 1%, so new annual record for net sales, SEK 4.5 billion, supported by some tailwinds from currency as well. The full year EBITDA is SEK 775 million, so that is the second-best EBITDA result for Nordic Paper. You can see the long-term trend here in the graph from 2018 to 2023. You see an increased level of EBITDA, but you also can see within the results for every year, you see the dynamic between the two segments as well. 775 million EBITDA and margin full year, 17.3%. And also for the full year, we have a new record for greaseproof. Full year EBITDA record for greaseproof is SEK 282 million. So the tactic that we've had to protect our price levels and taking market downtime, so here's the proof that we have achieved new records as well for this segment. So protecting the price level and the positive effect from lower price on pulp, energy, and freight. 12.9% EBITDA margin for this segment as a total for 2023. Kraft paper contributed with SEK 594 million on EBITDA level and an EBITDA margin of 25.5%. And of course, important decision during 2023 was when we decided to invest approximately SEK 850 million Swedish crowns in Bäckhammar, investment in a new wood room that will increase our efficiency when it comes to raw material sourcing and also in the production, and also one environmental investment that will improve our environmental performance, and with expected positive result of approximately SEK 100 million from 2026. Now, I think you're eager to get into the more of the details, and I will then hand over to my colleague, CFO, Niclas Eriksson. So please guide through. Thank you, Anita. Yeah, I will give the normal overview of the financial development of this time, Q4, and also full year 2023. First, I would like to remind you that we, when we compare now Q4 2023 with the same period last year, that we compare with the strongest period for Nordic Paper, Q4 2022 and Q4 21 and 2023, sorry, there we showed our highest net sales figures and also the highest EBITDA figures. Looking at this Q4, we have had continued production curtailment. We have seen some production disturbances as well, and in addition to that, we had the challenges in the supply chain related to the conflict in the Middle East. This has meant for us lower volumes, and we also have a different product mix compared to last year. Volume and mix is also the largest reason for the decrease in the net sales compared to the same period last year. The volume and mix effect is quite similar in the segments, but it's a bit higher in kraft paper. Bear in mind that we have increased our stock during the quarter. Price is negative, and the price decrease have continued, and we see, compared to Q4 2022, a decrease of 14% in kraft paper and 6% in natural greaseproof. In Q4, we saw on the currency market a strengthening Swedish krona, but we towards our invoicing currencies, but we still have a positive currency effect gaining the net sales for the quarter. When we look at the EBITDA, EBITDA comparing to Q4 2022, we have a reduction of the EBITDA down to SEK 170 million. Volume and mix is, of course, a large reason for that. We have equal effects also here from volume and mix, mix affecting the EBITDA negative. Price effect is we recognize from the net sales bridge, and it's actually offset by decreased variable costs. The variable costs have developed different for the different segments anyhow. In kraft paper, we have seen higher costs for pulpwood and pulp chips, while natural greaseproof have had lower prices for pulp. The other input materials and services, as energy, chemicals, and freights, they are all at lower prices compared to last year, which is, of course, positive for both of the segments. When we look at the full year figure for net sales, we can see a negative effect from volume and product mix. We have had the soft market all the year, starting in Q1, which of course is negative to our net sales. This effect is anyhow offset by, in average, higher prices compared to last year, and we also have a positive currency effect, giving us higher net sales compared to 2022. We have reached a very good EBITDA level for the year despite the lower volumes. Volume and mix is negative for the full year as well, to a large, but to a large part mitigated by the in average higher sales prices during this year, and also lower variable costs. The sales prices are up 6% in natural greaseproof compared to last year, but they are on the same level in kraft paper. Variable costs for full year, there we recognize most part of the development, the pulpwood and chips in kraft paper have had higher prices during the year, and natural greaseproof have seen lower price for the pulp. Regarding other input material, we have seen lower cost for mainly energy and freights during this year, but chemicals is actually slightly higher than 22 as an average. We also have a positive currency effect to the EBITDA, since the currencies that we use are stronger towards the Swedish krona. But the effect that we saw in the net sales is, to a large part, offset by the input material that we buy in other currencies. We come to the working capital, and there we can see this quarter that we have an unusual development for in Q4 compared to earlier years. The normal situation would be an increase in working capital in Q4 after the Q3s with our maintenance stops, but this year we see a decreasing working capital. The reasons are mainly two. We have had somewhat lower sales, which mean that we have lower accounts receivables in the balance sheet, and we have also higher accounts payable. And the development there is, to a large part, related to that we have started up the investment in Bäckhammar plant. The decrease in the accounts receivables are also the main reason for the increased cash flow from operating activities that we see this Q4 compared to same period last year. Yeah, as we have mentioned, we have started up the investment in wood room and electrostatic filter in Bäckhammar, and that's the main reason why we see a so much higher investment amount this quarter compared to normal. We report 205 million of investments, and the normal level is between 30 million-50 million. So that's the main reason. We have signed the agreements with the main suppliers during this period, and as you can see from the picture, we have also started up the ground preparation. We can also report a strong financial position. We have a low net debt, approximately SEK 751 million, and we have a leverage of the low 1.0, which is clearly in line with the target to be below 2.5. As Anita mentioned, this is also the time when we share the board proposition of dividend. The board proposes a dividend of 4 SEK per share, compared to 4.65 SEK last year. And it's in line with our dividend policy to be between 50%-70% of the net result. Yes, as part of our sustainability work, we explore a new technology for substitution of plastics. One company in this area is Ekoligens, a company we have known for many years since they work with our paper as their raw material. Ekoligens works with dry forming of cellulose structure. The three-dimensional products they can compete with plastics where conventional paper doesn't fit. ... and to develop our knowledge in dry forming, we have engaged as a minority owner in this company. Yes, we are reaching the final part of our presentation, and it's time for some outlook. Yes, we will share the outlook, what our view is for the coming quarter. Our assessment is that we have probably passed the trough of the market, and we believe assess that we'll see an improving market during the first half of, sorry, the first half of the year. What we see, an increasing, a decreasing inventory level at our customers, and that could be from a normal to low inventory level right now. And what we see is that the order intake is increasing. We are now negotiating prices going forward, and it's showing the possibility that we have to increase the product prices during the spring. When it comes to the raw material cost, the price curve for pulp continues upwards, and we also continue to see further price increases, both for the pulpwood and also for the sawmill chips. And, as we've also now started to invest in Bäckhammar, we also share the full year forecasted investment level, and it will be approximately SEK 500 million. So that finalizes our reporting and shared outlook, and of course, we are more than happy to answer any of your questions. So over to you, Henrik. I ask, operator, do we have any questions? We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to two questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. Our first question comes from Johannes Grunselius, from DNB. Please go ahead. Yes. Hello, everyone, it's Johannes Grunselius here. I have a few questions, and it relates to the outlook. I appreciate you don't give details on the outlook, but if you could sort of give us some kind of indication where you think volume will be for possibly Q1 and perhaps beyond Q1 as well. So the volume side of things. If you can sort of indicate what kind of magnitude you are thinking about when it comes to pricing, and also the magnitude in terms of the cost headwind. Thanks. Hello, Johannes, thank you for questions. Of course, we are seeing these positive signals on the market, and we also see the increase of request order intake. So we have a positive outlook that the market sentiment will change. And, volume-wise, we normally don't guide on volumes. Hopefully, we will see stable volumes, but what we see, what we do share normally is, of course, the level of price increases, changes on price. And what is the normal level of negotiation on prices is around 50 EUR per ton. And that's the ongoing discussions we have right now, and let's see how much of that will materialize in the negotiations. But what we estimate in the first quarter, that there will be a stable price level in local currency, and let's then see how much of these around EUR 50 per ton will be materialized during the spring. So this is a bit more than the first quarter going into quarter two as well. So ongoing negotiations in stepwise, around EUR 50 per ton with individual negotiations, of course, that's how we operate. It's no general price list on the market, it's on individual basis with the customers. Headwind on the cost side, well, the pulp price is continued on a very high level now, and we saw that there was decrease for a while, and now it's turning up again. So it's almost starting to reach the all-time high level we had during 2022. The outlook that we read in the market, what we see is that it's anticipated that we will continue to see a high pulp price in the market, increased demand for pulp globally. That's what we see as well. Also, it's the same thing when it comes to the pulpwood. Also increasing prices, and it counts as well for the sawmill chips that we are purchasing to the kraft paper segment. So increasing cost, energy is a little bit more challenging to make estimates around. It varies to a much higher degree, of course, but we are also reminded that we have approximately 70% of our electricity in hedges. Mm-hmm. And we can add also on the volume question, that when going from Q4 to Q1, large explanation to the lower volumes in Q4 are, of course, the curtailments. And in a better market situation, we do not have a need for material curtailments in Q1. Yes. Yes, thank you, Henrik. Okay. Because, I mean, the volumes in the fourth quarter stands out as, I guess, the lowest ever. And you provide the sales volume, not the production volume, but I assume that production volume follows pretty much sales volumes, right? We have actually increased the inventory of finished goods in Q4, also this year. Ah, you have? Okay. Yeah. Right. Yeah. And that, partly to this, logistics situation- Mm. Yeah at the end of the year. Yeah. Right. Right. But, I mean, when I look at Q1, we should expect more of a normal volume, sort of back to +70,000 or that region? Yeah, we're hopefully now returning to a more normal... We will see a little bit of push over from December volume stand. If the demand continues to be improved, we will see better volumes as well, of course. Yes, yes, okay. I have a final question on what you share with us on pricing. I got the impression it's EUR 50 up on all products, but if I compare that to the average sales price for Greaseproof, it's not much. It's, like, less than 2%, while it's pretty significant for the kraft paper business. But is it fair that you also push for 50, around that for Greaseproof, or is that another number? No, I think this is more like a general level, difficult because we have such a, we have a lot of different product types. So it's a general average level, I would say. And also a reminder that we managed to keep up the price level for the Greaseproof segment in a completely different way, where we saw a much heavier impact on the kraft paper side. So I think it's fair to say an average of EUR 50 per ton. But it's not all customers are not renegotiating price on a quarterly level as well. A lot are, but not all. So I think it's difficult to get any more granular on that. Mm-hmm ... right now than to say on average. But, of course, it's a lower percentage on the Greaseproof with the price level, but also we're coming from an improved level in that segment as well. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, you may press star and one. Our next question comes from Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Morning. Thank you for taking my question. I'm just trying to understand what's driving the increase in the kraft paper prices. Should I read it as, you know, inventory levels have normalized with the market taking downtime, and you are starting to see a slight improvement in demand? Or is this just more inventory levels have normalized and, you know, cost from pulp and pulpwood is still elevated, so you're negotiating price increases for the second quarter? Thank you. Yeah. Thank you. I think the combination of those two that you mentioned yourself is the answer. Of course, lower inventory levels at customers is what we see and hear from our customers as well. And now they have to start to reorder to run their business efficiently and also improve market demand in some areas. But also, of course, to keep up our margin, we need to, with the increasing pulp costs, not specifically in that segment, the kraft paper segment, but it follows the logic in the market, with the higher input costs, that we will also drive our product prices up. Then have you seen any increased discussions with your customers around kind of managing their inventory levels? I mean, we've gone through a period where everyone's effectively destocked high inventory levels and supply chains, but now we've got more challenges in the Middle East, you know, shipping issues. You know, are your customers looking at it and saying they want more kind of buffer safety stock for their converting plants? I'm just wondering how the negotiations are playing out, and if you've got any insight there on how customers are thinking about their supply chains and safety stock levels. Not really, in the wording of safety stocks. That's not something that we have discussed. Of course, the dialogue's ongoing now that some of the routes are taking longer time, so they have to plan for that, a longer time from delivery time, as the ships are rerouting. But not really that they are preparing for any safety stocks, really. Not ongoing discussions regarding that. Perfect. And then within your, your kraft paper segment, is there any particular end market that is standing out, that's seeing kind of better demand recovery than some of the others into the new year? Specific area? I think, I think one thing to, that we, I think we mentioned slightly in the reporting, is that the MG product we have, fairly large share of, of our sales... It's, that has been more stable, but it's also, improving now as well. But, I would say maybe then, not specific end users, it's not something that I would say stands out more than the others, it's more general. Thank you. There are no more questions over the phone. Okay, thank you, then. We conclude the Q&A session and return to a summary. Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Henrik. Yeah, just before ending this presentation, we just like to reiterate our the highlights of the report and also our outlook. So the short summary is that the market remains soft, no real change on the market in quarter four. And in this market, we deliver a robust result, SEK 170 million on EBITDA level and corresponding to a margin of 17.5%. And of course, very happy to present the new record for Natural Greaseproof, where they have now increased their EBITDA level to SEK 95 million for a quarter, also new annual record. As we discussed now in the Q&A session and during the report, we see positive signals in the market that the conditions are improving, and also that we see possibilities also to increase our product prices during the first half of the year. And then looking forward for the AGM during the spring here, the board of directors proposes a dividend of SEK 4 per share. And of course, we welcome all our shareholders to the AGM that we will hold in Karlstad, the 23rd of May, and to take the opportunity to vote. So, with that, I'll hand over to Henrik to conclude and finalize. Yes. Thank you very much, and thank you all for listening in to this presentation. We look forward to talking to you again at, when we present our Q1 report, which we will, we will do in the end of April. Looking forward to that. And with that, thank you and goodbye. Mm-hmm. Thank you very much. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.
Loading workspace