The conference is now being recorded. Hello and welcome to Probi's Q3 Report 2022. Throughout the call, all participants will be on listen only mode, and afterwards there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If you have any questions, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Today, I am pleased to present CEO Tom Rönnlund and CFO Henrik Lundkvist. Please go ahead. Thank you. Well, welcome and good morning, and thank you for dialing in to Probi's Presentation of our Q3 Results for 2022. Together with me as usual, I have our CFO, Henrik Lundkvist, as well. Please move to the next slide, please. Here I ask you to familiarize yourselves with our safe harbor statement. Please move to the next slide, please. In today's agenda, we will have an overview of our Q3 results, our financial review, as well as some comments on our outlook moving forward. Please move to slide number 4. In the third quarter, as communicated last week in our market update, we did not meet our targets in Q3 that we had set for ourselves internally. We closed the quarter at SEK 145 million. These revenues were in this quarter supported by the strong dollar, which led to our currency adjusted performance being off our objectives and disappointing as such. Our EBITDA came in at SEK 36 million, which represents a margin of 25% in the quarter. We have had particular challenges in region Americas in the third quarter, where our performance was well below previous year, particularly in currency adjusted terms. While we still see a good development in this region with more recently acquired ClinBac customers, this has not been sufficient to offset missed orders and a slowdown market, slower development, particularly in the LiveBac range in the region for us. We furthermore, in the quarter, also experienced a raw material shortage, which impacted our production temporarily and led to disruption in certain customer deliveries. This shortage was widespread, didn't impact only us and affected multiple suppliers. It has since been resolved, and we have increased our stock levels and made sure also that we have validated both tertiary and quaternary suppliers to ensure that we do not experience similar impact in the future. EMEA is slightly down. The region EMEA is slightly down in the third quarter compared to previous year. We are generally otherwise developing quite well in the region, and we have a positive trend with several customer accounts. We also signed two new agreements with customers in the quarter, and these will be launching Probi ClinBac concept within the next few months towards the end of this year and early next year. The performance in EMEA is somewhat hampered by Perrigo's performance in their launch in the marketplace, as that launch has not gone according to their expectations, and this means also that the contribution to Probi from this particular customer is lower than what we expected earlier this year. At the same time, we grew in APAC, our smallest region. We had a good pace in growth in Q3 compared to last year. We continue to see very good development with several of our customers across the region, including Sinopharm in China, who are now in launch or pre-launch phase with four different product concepts based on Probi offerings. We also have a good pipeline in the APAC region and continue to maintain a positive outlook on the opportunities for our company in this growing region. The market growth in APAC continues to outpace US and Europe and the customer sentiment there is currently more positive than in certain other markets. In the quarter, we also finished an exciting clinical pilot study in gut brain area or in mental health with 132 study subjects. I will explain a little bit more on that later in the presentation. Please move to slide number five. As mentioned, our net sales came in at SEK 145 million in the quarter, which was 9% lower than in Q3 2021 in reported terms. In currency adjusted terms, though, our sales were 22% lower than previous year. Our sales for the first nine months was slightly above SEK 474 million, which is 3% lower than previous year in reported terms. Adjusted for currencies and the tailwind from the strong dollar, this represents a decline for the first nine months of 13%. Our EBITDA in the quarter was SEK 36.3 million compared to SEK 42.3 million last year. Our margin in Q3 was 25% in the quarter compared to 27% last year. Our lower EBITDA margin is mainly a result of lower net sales and volumes, but it also carries higher cost in certain areas as we continue to invest from an OpEx perspective in our commercial capabilities. In the quarter, we also recorded costs, which were related to business development activities, and if we adjust for these, our EBITDA margin would have been one percentage point higher, and we would have landed at 26%. We are having a challenge in the U.S., as mentioned, and particularly on our LiveBac portfolio, and which on top of that then was extra impacted by the supply chain disturbances that we mentioned. We're also seeing that some customers in the US are adjusting their ordering patterns, expecting further impact by the inflation and the macroeconomic conditions on consumer spending. In EMEA and APAC, we do not see currently a similar trend. The market is for now performing quite well, and we do not see an increased sharp decline in the market demand right now. From an EBITDA perspective, we're falling short of our long-term target of 29%. As we've also commented on before, we do have positive impact from our manufacturing upgrade, but it is being offset by raw material cost increases and rising labor costs, and of course also our volumes which are not satisfactory at the moment. As earlier mentioned, this leads to that we will not this year reach our long-term target of 29% EBITDA, and particularly then basically based on the development that we currently see in the Americas. If we move to the next slide, please, which is slide number six. In the Americas, we posted sales of SEK 112 million in the quarter. And if you look, which is a quite sharp decline in currency adjusted terms. If you look at the first nine months, we saw a decline of 3% in reported terms, while the currency adjusted terms were down by 16% for the first nine months. The gross margin in the U.S. was impacted in the quarter. We had 36% in gross margin in the quarter, which was lower than previous quarter. These were mainly impacted by the lower volumes, which offset the advantages we see from internalized production at the same time. This led to a gross margin of 38% year to date. In region EMEA, our revenues fell by 3% compared to Q3 last year. This leads to -6% for the first nine months. If we correct for one-time milestone payments in last year, our underlying performance in EMEA is actually more positive than that, and we grew our sales by 3% for the first nine months of the year. We had a healthy gross margin in region EMEA in the quarter, and which was mainly an effect of a favorable product mix in Q3. If you look to the APAC region, we actually have a positive development there. We grew our revenues by 16% in the third quarter, admittedly from a lower base last year. But this positive development, we see good signs of that being able to continue into the future. For the first nine months, we had a growth of approximately 4%. Also a positive development in gross margin. Also again, then based on a favorable product mix for the APAC region. If we move to the next slide, please, number seven. Just briefly to provide you with a bit of an update on our R&D pipeline and launches that we are planning for, moving forward. Currently we're conducting clinical trials in several different areas. We are doing studies in existing health areas, where we currently This is the operator speaking. It seems that we have lost our speaker, who we'll try to reconnect. I don't know if you want to take over, Henrik. Yeah, let's hold on and see if Tom can reconnect here within short. Tom is trying to call in again here. The conference is now being recorded. Apologies for that. Some technical challenges. I'm dialing in from the U.S. for this call, and something went wrong there. My apologies for that. Anyhow, if we continue on our R&D pipeline there, I did mention our ongoing human clinical trial in China for gut health, an important element for us to drive additional success in the Chinese market, which is growing quite healthily for us already today. With additional clinical data, we see further opportunities to grow the market there. We're also conducting an ongoing trial in bone health. Our second human clinical trial in bone health in collaboration with a university in Australia, which is an additional important study to further strengthen our position in bone health, which is garnering increased interest from many customers around the world. In new health areas, we have recently concluded, as mentioned, a pilot study in the Gut-Brain axis in mood, stress, and sleep. I will get back to that. We're also conducting studies and preclinical work in the area of vaginal health as well for developing offering to strengthen our position even further in the female health segment. In new product opportunities, we are currently working on spore-forming probiotics and synbiotics and of course, our BLIS collaboration as well. We are looking at rolling out new offerings and/or product opportunities in these fields, within the next 9- 12 month period to allow our commercial teams additional opportunities to drive continued success. If we move to the next slide, please, slide number 8. Our recently concluded or completed pilot study in the Gut-Brain axis represents an important opportunity for Probi to enter into a growing market segment. In products which are focused on mental health and the Gut-Brain axis, there is currently quite a few scientifically validated products on the market. There is a strong growing commercial and consumer interest in the field as the link between our gut microbiota and its impact also on our mental health and state is increasing, both from a scientific point of view, but also from a consumer awareness perspective. We are seeing brand owners across the world capturing this opportunity and putting product into the market, and there's been a quite strong development in this field over the past few years. In 2017, as presented by the research institute Lumina Intelligence, they were tracking on a global level approximately 49 products available on the market some four or five years ago. Last year it was around 215 products available in this field. What is also very interesting to see is that the Gut-Brain axis in relation to probiotics is also increasing among consumers. The graph here on the picture represents the number of online customer reviews on Gut-Brain products through a period of years from December 2017 to June 2021. You can see a clear spike here in the first half of 2021. I was in contact with this research institute quite recently, and they're seeing a continued trend here with online reviews by consumers on probiotic products for the Gut-Brain axis. It fits very nicely that we have recently concluded or completed our study in this field, which we call ProStress21. This study is specifically targeting development and new offering for the Gut-Brain axis market segment. It is a decently large clinical pilot study, and we have conducted in such way that we can use the data for the study, potentially, if the results are positive, to enter with a commercial offering, but also to give us further pointers to future research into the area to strengthen the body of evidence behind any products from Probi in this field. What we've done is that we've used a proprietary Probi strain in a 12-week study in a placebo-controlled manner on healthy subjects who displayed moderate stress. Why healthy subjects? Well, it is important to conduct studies on healthy subjects, as certain countries' regulatory environment doesn't allow use of studies on study subjects that have a diagnosis or who are ill, or who have a diagnosis. The study parameters that we are looking at in this study is stress level, cognition, mood, sleep quality, and inflammation. As earlier mentioned, we had 132 study participants. They have all been through the protocol and we are currently analyzing and working on the data, and results from the study is expected in Q4 this year. We of course are hoping that they're positive so that we can continue to enter this market space. Okay. Please move to the next slide, please, and I will hand over to Henrik for the financial review. Okay. Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. We now walk you through the financial section of the report. Please turn to page 10. As earlier mentioned, we reported net sales of SEK 145 million in the quarter, which was SEK 14 million lower than last year or down 9%. We had a positive FX effect of SEK 21 million, which means that net sales were down by 22% compared to last year. Our EBITDA landed at SEK 36 million in Q3, which was SEK 6 million lower than last year and was negatively affected by lower sales volumes. The EBITDA margin amounted to 25% in the quarter compared to 27% last year. We did have business development costs in Q3 that amounted to SEK 1.1 million, and adjusted for these, the EBITDA margin was 26%. EBIT was 40% lower than last year, and net income and earnings per share were 33% lower than last year. Please turn to page 11. Net income for the third quarter landed at SEK 12 million, which was SEK 7 million lower than last year. Compared to last year, we had a negative sales volume effect of SEK 14 million in the quarter. We also had a gross margin effect of -SEK 2 million, which also was related or connected to lower sales volumes. Our reported operating expenses increased by SEK 2 million, but adjusted for currencies, they actually decreased by SEK 2 million. This decrease in operating expenses mainly came from R&D due to phasing effects on our R&D projects. The FX component was large this quarter, and we had a positive impact of SEK 4 million. The financial expenses and tax expenses were together SEK 3 million lower than last year. Now turning to page 12. The gross operating cash flow amounted to SEK 124 million for the first nine months, which demonstrates a healthy business model. We had a positive cash flow effect from lower working capital by SEK 22 million, mainly due to lower accounts receivables. Paid taxes amounted to SEK 15 million for the first nine months of the year. Our CapEx amounted to SEK 45 million year to date, and the largest part was related to investments in our manufacturing sites in U.S., but also rebuilding an upgrade of our laboratory in Lund. We have paid dividend to our shareholders in May, which amounted to SEK 15 million, which was SEK 2 million more than the year before. The cash flow from financing activities was related to payments and interest for lease obligation and amounted to SEK 12 million. We had a positive exchange rate effect of SEK 18 million Swedish krona. To summarize, our cash generation continues to be strong. We generated additional SEK 77 million in cash in the first nine months, even if we made significant investments to our manufacturing site and paid dividend to our shareholders. Please turn to page 13. We have a balance sheet that is very strong, and we continue to have no external loans. Our equity amounts to SEK 1.5 billion Swedish krona, which gives us an equity ratio of 91%. This is, of course, a good position to be in the current macroeconomic uncertainties, and it also enable us to further investigate interest in business development projects with focus on growing our business. Now turning to page 14 and handing over to Tom again. Thank you, Henrik. Thank you. Please turn to page number 15. As mentioned earlier, we are not happy about our performance in the third quarter. Even though we've had market headwinds as well as some production challenges based on the raw material shortage for a period of time, which led to a bit of a backlog that we're working our way through as we speak. We continue to strive to get back to growth as a company. The U.S. market is right now, particularly for, from a LiveBac perspective, not an easy marketplace at the moment. We do however see that it seems like our customers or the market has been quite cautious in reordering and making sure that they cycle through their inventory as they are sort of assessing the market sentiment amongst consumers. Far, the consumer market sentiment doesn't seem to have declined that much. Many of our customers are wary of sitting with high stocks or stock levels if that would occur. From our perspective, we are investing and making sure that we build our technical capabilities to further enhance our LiveBac portfolio. LiveBac is an important element of our U.S. business, so we're making technical investment in this field to further strengthen our competitiveness there. We've also made sure that we have the adequate commercial resources on the US market to be able to capture the opportunities that are there. At the same time, our ClinBac offerings, which is a very important focus for us in growing in the US as well alongside LiveBac, is performing well. If we look at recently acquired ClinBac customers, we actually had a growth of approximately 18% year to date in that segment in the US. At the same time, it's not been enough to offset the challenges that we've seen on the LiveBac side, but we do see that we can further increase our competitiveness in this field also through the technical investment and capability expansion that we have been through and continue to go through as well. EMEA and APAC are actually performing quite well as regions for us. Of course, we're striving for even higher growth in these regions, but we do have a pipeline of good customers as well as other projects ongoing as well to increase our speed of growth in these markets. Overall as well, our innovation engine in R&D will over the next 9-12 months also deliver additional opportunities and product launches for us as well that can support us in driving our growth further than where we have been so far. We are well underway in the manufacturing upgrade that we have been working on for quite long period of time. We have increased our capacity in our facility significantly and with the last pieces of equipment that have come in now over the past 3-6 months, we are ready to be able to serve the market with that capacity. The advantages in internalizing production, we have internalized a lot of our production through this period. The advantages on a gross margin perspective have not become visible to us yet due to the fact that we are running with lower volumes than what we had planned for. All in all, with a strong pipeline of new launches, a strong pipeline of customers as well, we do maintain a positive outlook for our ability to return to growth in next year as a company. With that, please turn to page 16, and we'll open up for question and answers. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing zero two to cancel. Our first question comes from the line of Mattias Vadsten from SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Hi there. A few from me. The weakness that you're experiencing right now, is that an effect of mainly weaker momentum for LiveBac? I mean, it sounds so. Are you then growing the ClinBac portfolio overall? If you could remind us on the split between those two product segments. That's the first one. Yeah. Thanks, Mattias. Good question. We are seeing a stronger momentum in ClinBac, yes, both in the US as well as in the other regions. If we look at our sales split in Europe, or in EMEA, it's almost exclusively, I would say, ClinBac offerings. In APAC, it is about, probably about 85% of our sales is based on ClinBac today. While in the US, the relationship is somewhat different. Overall on a company level, it is approximately 50/50 split between the two offering types. In the US, as I did mention, we do have a couple of large customers who have gone through various types of product upgrades which have impacted the amount of our ClinBac going into those products, which had a bit of a detrimental effect this year. If we look at other customers who have been recently launched over the past couple of years, we actually see a quite strong growth in that segment. It is really in our LiveBac offering range where we have suffered this year. Sorry, I was on mute. Thank you. My next one, you said that you expect a small decline to net sales for the full year. Just to confirm, is that in organic terms or in absolute actual sales terms? Just to understand, it better. It is on a reported basis, Mattias, and we're Okay. Of course, I mean, Q4 is not over at this moment. Mm. We may need to make sure that we catch up on the backlog that we got from Q3. Also, making sure that everything goes out through the doors here before the end of the year. We want to be a bit cautious here. Yes, that is correct. Yeah. It was just on time. It would have been quite aggressive if it was organic, but yeah. Organic. That's great. Correct. Um- Yeah. You know, a little bit more about the ClinBac customers in the US. You spoke a little bit about it in the presentation, but you know, you see potential for growth next year and you know, if the consumer weakens further, that may be tough in my opinion. Any concrete incremental delta that you see? I mean, you talk about both new product concepts and new customers, but can we get some more? You know, what are you seeing as the most important drivers in your books to achieve this? There's a few important drivers. I think, I mean, we're expecting, for example, probably around 2-3 new customers ClinBac that we are in advanced negotiations with for launches in early next year. Those customers have not pulled back on their ambitions there. They see opportunities with our portfolio. These are quite sizable customers. Of course, their first orders during launch will not be huge, but they also build a foundation for future opportunities ClinBac in the U.S. Also a little bit further down the pipeline, we have some significantly large U.S.-based customers who are interested in our concept. Unfortunately, the business development timelines for these contracts is quite long. Of course, not all contracts turn into success either, but as we have multiple of these in play, we do see an opportunity to actually have that as an additional growth driver for next year. New product opportunities is another area. Of course, the Gut-Brain study data will be important to see if we can even based on this pilot study, as it's actually quite well powered with more than 100 patients, which there aren't many studies in this field actually today in that area. If we have positive data there, we can potentially actually go to the market a bit quicker than sort of normally a pilot study would allow. Our opportunities within spores, BLIS and synbiotics add to those opportunities there as well. Of course, I mean, we wish to make sure that we get the momentum back behind our LiveBac as well. They're an important contributor to us on overall level. That is also why we're making capabilities investments there to further increase the competitiveness of that portfolio as well, in the changing marketplace. All in all, of course, it's dependent on how the U.S. consumers will behave. We've also seen that clinically validated product concepts, most likely because the consumer actually feels a difference compared to taking products which doesn't have that clinical validation, actually can fare quite well also in periods of downturn. Of course, it will be dependent on if the US market comes to a screeching halt economically, that could affect the picture. Right now, we are not getting those signals from our customers. Perfect. That leads me to my last question, actually, on BLIS. I mean, you didn't mention that in the report. How is this moving forward? An update, just to remind us of where you stand there would be perfect. We are currently producing and using certain BLIS materials in products that we're delivering to customers. We have not yet started the launch of powder sachets in the U.S., where we see the biggest opportunity on BLIS. That will happen here in early next year. It's been based on that we need to make sure that we have produced sufficient stability data on the strains that we have produced in-house. Unfortunately, we have to wait in real time for that. So far it looks positive. We need to gather additional months of data before we can go out with the powder launch, where we see bigger commercial opportunities and where we can really start to tap into the potential that that represents. Perfect. Thank you very much, guys. That was all from me today. Thank you, Mattias. Thank you. As there are currently no further questions, I will hand the word back to the speakers for any final comments. Please go ahead. Okay. Thank you for the attention this morning. Thank you for dialing in. Please turn to the last page of the presentation. Here you also have our financial calendar for the coming year. The next time we'll be together is on January the 27th when we will present our fourth quarter and year-end report. Looking forward to that. Wishing you a nice weekend once you get there, and thank you for the attention. This now concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your line.
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