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Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors January 2025
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Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties. -2-
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Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS OUTLOOK KEY HIGHLIGHTS -3- FINAL REMARK
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TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW -4-
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Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT -5- Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder and key business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in adherence with strong corporate governance principles Key strategic benefits for Thai Oil 1. Long-term strategic partnership • Thai Oil is PTT’s principal refiner • Long-term strategic shareholder and joint investment 2. Business partnership • Product offtake • Crude procurement 3. Operational synergies • Freight costs reduction • Knowledge transfer and shared services • Close management collaboration and secondment of trained staff 48.00% * Remark * PTT holds total of 48.00 % both direct and indirect. * # of Listed Shares 2,233.8 mil. shares Free Float Shares 52.0% * As of 6 Jan 2025 48.00% 16.82% 26.62% 8.56% PTT Foreign Investors Local Investors NVDR
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TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain -6- NATURAL GAS CRUDE IMPORT Mixed-Xylene Solvent Toluene Pentane Hexane SOLVENTS TOP SPP provides electricity and steam to Thai Oil group and sells its remaining power to the national grid AROMATICS & LAB Lube Base Oil Bitumen TDAE Slack Wax Extract LUBE BASE REFINERY LPG Fuel Oil Diesel Gasoline Jet/Kero PLATFORMATE LONG RESIDUE REFINED PETROLEUM POWER Diversifying to a broad range of downstream products to enjoy higher profit margins and reduce earnings volatility Thai Oil’s Businesses The majority of refined petroleum products are sold domestically to PTT PTT is our principal domestic customer for our lube base products Upstream Intermediate Downstream Paraxylene Benzene Mixed-Xylene Toluene LAB
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Key Milestones: 62 Years, A Long Track Record of Success -7- 2007 • Increased refining capacity to 275 kbd 2008 • The first refinery in Thailand with diesel production to comply with the sulfur content requirements of Euro IV • Capacity expansion of Thai Paraxylene with total aromatics capacity of 900,000 tons p.a. • Invested in Solvents business in Thailand and Vietnam 1993 • We expanded our refining capacity to 190 kbd 1994 – 1997 • Increased total refining capacity to 220 kbd • Initial investment in Thai Paraxylene (“TPX”) and Thai Lube Base (“TLB”) • IPT became the first IPP to enter into a PPA with EGAT2 with 700 MW capacity ; separately, Thaioil Power (“TP”) constructed the power generation plant under the SPP with 118 MW capacity 2004 – 2011 Listing, expansion and diversification Today A leading integrated refining and petrochemical group in Asia Pacific • 275 kbd refinery ( approximately 22% of Thailand’s total refining capacity) • Nelson index 9.81 • Diversified business through 16 subsidiaries 1961 – 1964 1961 • Incorporated 1964 • Commenced operation with distillation capacity of 35 kbd • Simple refinery with Nelson complexity Index ~ 4 1 1970 • Refining capacity expanded to 65 kbpd 1989 • Increased refining capacity to 90 kbpd 2004 • IPO and listed on the SET • Acquired remaining shares in Thai Paraxylene and Thai Lube Base which became our wholly-owned subsidiaries 2017-2018 • 2017 Record High net profit 24,856 MB • Completed lorry expansion project (10 to 15 mml/day) • Established Thaioil Treasury center (TTC) • CFP Investment ($4.8 bn) 2019 • ERU Carve-out to reduce CFP project cost (CFP cost $4.1 bn) 2021-2023 • Olefins investment in Chandra Asri (CAP) $1.183 bn • Power business restructuring • Capital increase 2010-2011 • Established Thaioil Ethanol • Manufactured diesel and ULG in compliance with the sulfur and BZ aromatics content requirements of the Euro IV 2013-2014 • Established LABIX • Invested in power biz via GPSC & TOP SPP • Completed Emission Improvement, HVU-2 Debottlenecking & CDU-3 Preheat Train project 2015-2016 • Completed LABIX & TOP SPP 1961 – 1997 Capacity expansion and initial stage of business diversification
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Thai Oil Group Business Structure -8- 9.2 % PTT Group 80.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thaioil (TOP) Thai Lube Base (TLB) TOP SPP Thaioil Energy Services (TES) Capacity : 275,000 barrels/day Proceeds the business on various professional of management services 100.0% Multi-product Pipeline Capacity:26,000 m.lts/y 20.0% PTTOR 40.4% Others 50.4% Lube Base Oil Capacity : Base Oil 267,015 tons/annum Bitumen 350,000 tons/annum TDAE 67,520 tons/annum 100.0% 100.0% Thaioil Ethanol (TET) Solvent manufacturer Capacity :141,000 tons/annum Thai Paraxylene (TPX) 100.0% 80.5% Production Sapthip (SAP) Cassava Based Ethanol Capacity : 200,000 lts/day 50.0% Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE) 12.4% Cassava/Molasses Based Plant Capacity : 400,000 lts/day Provides engineering technique consulting services BBGI 12.4% Others 75.2% Aromatics Capacity: Paraxylene 527,000 tons/annum Mixed Xylene 52,000 tons/annum Benzene 259,000 tons/annum Total 838,000 tons/annum LAB producer and distributor Capacity: 120 KTA COD: 2016 Mitsui 25.0%75.0% 2 Small Power Producers Total capacity: 354 MW Steam capacity 757 T/H COD 2016 Capacity expansion 2023 Sells Electricity/Steam to Group PTT Digital Solutions (PTT Digital) Thappline (THAP) Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (GPSC) Thaioil Solvent Through TOP Next LABIX Company Limited (LABIX) PTT 47.8% PTTGC 10.0% Thaioil Treasury Center (TTC) 100.0% Enhance financial efficiency, Investment in CVC/Start-up Supports execution of social enterprise of PTT group 15.0%PTT Group 85.0% Sarn Palung Social Enterprise Net Profit Contribution (Avg. 2006 – Q3/24) Sak Chaisidhi (SAKC) Sales & Distribution 100.0% TOP Next Thailand 77.7% 10% 60.0% PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (CAP) 15.0% The Largest Integrated Petrochemical in Indonesia Total Capacity 4.2 Mtons/annum Ethylene 900,000 tons/annum Propylene 490,000 tons/annum 100.0% PT TOP Investment Indonesia (TII) TOP Solvent Vietnam 100.0% PT. Tirta Surya Raya (TSR) JSKEM Principal power plant of PTT Total Equity Capacity 7,236 MW of electricity 2,946 tons/hour of steam 7,372 Cu.m./hour of Industrial water 15,400 RT of Chilled water 69 MWh of battery TOPNEXT India 100.0% 55% 18% 13% 15% Refinery Petrochemical Lube Base Others
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Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration -9- Thai Paraxylene PROCESS FLOWCHART JET ULG91 LPG ULG95 KEROSENE MX AGO DIESEL FUEL OIL BITUMEN SULPHUR HVU-1 HVU-2 FUEL GAS BBU 1,800 ADIP SRU-1/2 SRU-3/4 2x210 KMT-1 KMT-2 HDT-1 HDT-2 HDT-3 85,000 HDS-2 MX 40,000 CCR-1 CCR-2 50,000 ADIP Thai Oil TCU 19,000 HVU-3 95,000 HCU- 1 HCU 2 50,000 ISOM 20,000 HMU-1 HMU-2 140TH2 HDS-3 75,000 HVU-3 95,000 FCCU 10,400 CDU-1 45,000 CDU-3 180,00 0 CDU-2 50,000 CCR
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Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,243.6 kbd (1) One of Region’s Leading Refineries Market shares for refined petroleum product (3) Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner BSRC (174 kbpd) IRPC (2) (215 kbpd) SPRC (175 kbpd) BCP (122.1 kbpd) Remarks: • Nelson Complexity Index measures refinery’s upgrading capability for comparison • It is the ratio of complexity barrels divided by crude distillation capacity 14.0 13.8 10.2 9.8 9.7 8.8 6.6 Reliance JX PTTGC TOP SK Corp Sinopec Esso Nelson Index - Regional Comparison (4) PTTGC (2) (280kbpd) Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity Note: 1. Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO), Ministry of Energy Thailand as of May 2024 2. PTT holds a 47.6% interest in IRPC, a 47.7% interest in PTTGC as at 4 Aug 2020 3. Calculate by total domestic sales of refined petroleum products (excluding by product & LPG) of Thai Oil divided by total sales of petroleum products in Thailand excl LPG . Source from EPPO 4. Source: Worldwide Refinery Survey and Complexity Analysis 2019 from Oil & Gas Journal and company information Fang (2.5 kbpd) 10 31% market shares 31% market shares Q3/24Q2/24
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Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets -11- Our strategic location provide us with 1. Close proximity with the key domestic markets and Indochina 2. Direct access to deep water ports 3. Direct connection with multi- product pipelines Our plants are located within the Sriracha Complex SBM provides direct access to deep water ports, and ability to receive feedstock directly from VLCC We also enjoy available connections to delivery networks such as multi-product pipelines, including Thappline Direct connection with product pipeline system Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports and trucksClose proximity to the key domestic markets Bangkok Map Ta Phut Gulf of Thailand Sriracha (124 km from BKK) THAILAND LAOS VIETNAM CAMBODIA Ø24”, 134 km Saraburi LamlukkaDon Mueng Suvarnabhumi BSRC PTTGC SPRC IRPC Map Ta Phut Sriracha BCP Product pipeline system Khonkhen
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90% 7% 2% 1% 6% 6%1% 35% 17% 18% 13% 5% Optimized & Flexible Operations Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Sources of Crude • Flexibility in crude intake allows diversification of crude types to source cheaper crude • Flexibility in product outputs by maximizing middle distillates (jet and diesel) by adjusting production mode to capture domestic demand and price premium • Maximize Platformate production to capture higher margin on aromatics • Minimize fuel oil output to avoid lower margin products Product output Domestic demand for petroleum products** ** Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand % S = 0.78 API = 39.4 % S = 1.43 API = 32.0 % S = 2.52 API = 31.2 Crude Assays based on TOP configuration* % S = 1.97 API = 32.8 *Crude yield as per assay in Spiral as of Feb 2016 Middle East SAUDI ARAMCO MOPS Jet Kerosene FOB SG MOPS Gasoil 0.05% Sulfur FOB SG MOPS ULG 95 FOB SG LPG PLATFORMATE GASOLINE JET DIESEL FUEL OIL Q3/24 LONG RESIDUE Reference Price Local Q3/24 MOPS Fuel Oil 0.5%S MOPS Fuel Oil 3.5%S Operations 12 Others FE 3% 42% 10% 20% 24%
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43% 4% 3%1% 24% 13% 12% 92% 89% 93% 93% 94% 95% 87% 86% 90% 93% 113% 110% 111% 105% 111% 113% 101% 100% 107% 112% 0% 50% 100% 150% Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 2020 2021 2022 2023 Industry utilization rate TOP utilization rate 43% 4% 2% 1% 26% 13% 11% Export Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 TOP Ind. TOP Ind. TOP Ind. TOP Ind. CLMV 11% 10% 11% 9% 12% 10% 11% 10% Others 3% 8% 3% 13% 2% 8% 3% 9% Refinery : High & Reliable Utilization On Recovering Domestic Oil Demand TOP’s Domestic Sales vs Industry TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Unit: % Utilization Rate (2) Excluding export sale through PTT Source: Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy Domestic Oil Demand 13 Domestic Export TOP Industry Thailand Q2/24 TOP Industry Thailand Q3/24 Other Domestic Customers Export (2) Q3/24 Sales Breakdown 86% 82% 86% 78% 86% 82% 86% 81% 14% 18% 14% 22% 14% 18% 14% 19% TOP Industry Thailand 9M/24 Q2/24 Sales Breakdown Export Other Domestic Customers (2) Q3’24 VS Q3’23 Mogas Jet/Kero Gasoil Total -0.2% +17.4% +4.0% +4.4% 9M/23 Sales Breakdown by Customers (1) excluding fuel oil & LPG demand KBD (1) TOP Industry Thailand 0 200 400 600 800 Mogas Jet/Kero Diesel Total Demand 9M'23 9M'24 -0.5% +16.9% -0.7% +1.5%
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS -14-
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Key Market Highlight Weak Market GRM/GIM and Lower Crude Oil Prices 15 Key Performance Highlights Key Market Highlight Key Business Highlights 3Vs Strategy Impact to Oil Prices & Refining Margin Key Market Factors Rising Product Supply in Q3 from Higher Run After refineries finished maintenance and new refinery start-up Factors to Watch in Q4 factors to impact crude oil price and product cracks 75 80 85 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 2023 2024 Average 2015-2019 Global Refinery Run (MBD) Source : EA (4 Nov 24) Weak Economic Data in US and China have prompted money managers to sell off futures contracts Geopolitical Tensions Worries on supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts Trump 2.0 Cold Winter to Support Heating Demand Further Cut in Global Oil Demand Forecast Due to economic challenges, especially in China 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gasoline Gasoil Jet Source : EA(Oct’24) Pre-COVID level (2019) 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Contraction Manufacturing PMI Expansion China: 49.8 (Sep’24) US: 47.3 (Sep’24) 2024 Demand Growth, %YoY Version Jul Oct Gasoline 0.9% 0.9% Gasoil 0.6% -0.8% Jet 6.8% 6.4% Total 1.4% 0.9% With coming changes in fiscal policy, trade, energy, regulation, etc. NOAA projected a 60% chance that La Nina will develop during Oct-Nov until Q1’25 Key Highlights Dubai Price ($/BBL) Murban OSP ($/BBL) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q4’24 5.0 $1.4/BBL (QoQ) Q1TD : $4.0/BBL Q1TD as of 6 Jan 2025 SG GRM ($/BBL) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q4’24 1.6 $0.3/BBL (QoQ) Q1TD : $ 1.1/BBL 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 $(4.7)/BBL (QoQ) Q4’24 73.6 Q1TD : $76.7/BBL Decreasing crude oil price in Q3 due to concerns over global oil demand growth, which have prompted money managers to sell off futures contracts, especially in Sep Lower crude OSP premium in Q3 due to higher Murban exports after Ruwais refinery switch to process medium crude Stable margins in Q3 due to lower-than-expected demand and high product inventory in Singapore
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Key Business Highlight High Refinery Utilization and Domestic Sales with Competitive Cash Cost 16 Key Performance Highlights Key Market Highlight Key Business Highlights CFP Progress Financial Operating Cost Interest Expense Continuously Enhanced Cost Management Interim Dividend Payment Operational Commercial U-Rate % Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 Refinery 111%(1) 113% 112% 110%(2) Aromatics 80% 83% 70% 80% LAB 125% 125% 123% 123% Base Oil 83% 86% 80% 79% 38% 35% 39% 37% 15% 17% 15% 16% 18% 18% 18% 18% 92% 90% 91% 92% 5% 7% 7% 6% 3% 2% 2% 2%1% 1% Middle East Others i.e. WAF, US Local Far East Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 Local 86% 86% 86% 86% Indochina 11% 11% 12% 11% Other exports 3% 3% 2% 3% GASOLINE JET DIESEL High and Reliable Refinery Production Optimized Production Capture High Local & Indochina Sales Crude Optimization Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 (1) CDU-1 planned maintenance for 11 days in May’24 (2) CDU-3 unplanned shutdown for 13 days in Jan’24 and CDU -1 planned maintenance for 11 days in May’24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 2020 2021 2022 2023Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 Interim dividend Payout Ratio Payment Date 24 % 27 Sep 20241.2 Baht/Share 0.60 2.00 0.65 1.20 2.00 1.70 2.75 2021 2022 2023 1H 2024 1H Dividend 2H Dividend Dividend Payment 2021-1H 2024 Payout Ratio 42% 26% 39% 24% Key Highlights
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3Vs Strategy : Achievement Solid Progress on Key Strategic Projects 17 • Introduce relevant measures to keep continuing activities at site as much as possible, while consistently urging the UJV to solve the problem • Thoroughly evaluate the project status and review the best strategy for execution moving forward to minimize the overall impact V alue Maximization Integrated Crude to Chemicals CFP CAP HVPs 01 V alue Enhancement Integrated Value Chain Mgmt. 02 Market Expansion • Complete commissioning on expanding tanks and facilities in Hai Phong, Vietnam to seize opportunities for Solvent and Chemicals Market • Increase tank capacity as well as sale volume • Sell more products which have high growth in North Vietnam • Enhance TSV flexibility from optimizing of vessel and tank V alue Diversification 03 HVB • Commercial development for D&S product and D&S formulation Other New S - Curve • Biojet: Study, develop and invest in BioJet fuels production in Thailand • Biochemical/Bioplastic: Completed prelim market study of shortlisted products (such as bio BDO, PBAT, bio PDO) and keep monitoring regulations and market situations • New Energy/Hydrogen/CCS/CCU: Completion prelim feasibility study on some projects. • Dimethylacetoacetamide (DMMA) • Topsol P100 • SDA Washing oil In Oct’24, CAP partnered with Biofront, one of the world's largest waste-based raw material collectors, to invest in the procurement and collection of used cooking oil (UCO) and Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) for biofuel production in Indonesia. This investment is further affirming its long-term commitment to support Indonesia's goal of achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2060. • Assessing the impact of the recent incident and taking prompt measures to mitigate potential impacts on CFP with the interests of shareholders being a primary concern. • Focus on 3 applications; personal care, paint and coating, industrial and institution cleaning (I&I)
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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS -18-
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3.7 $/bbl QoQ 0.1 $/bbl Key Performance Highlight Lower GIM Due to Softer Refining Margins from Concerns over Economic Slowdown 19 Key Market Highlight Key Business Highlights CFP Progress Market GRM Stock G/(L) GIM 3.8 3.7 9.0 5.4 5.1 (1.7) 10.5 4.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 Q2/24 Q3/24 . 9M/23 9M/24 Refinery Aromatic & LAB Lube 5.7 5.4 10.5 7.1 7.0 0.0 12.0 5.8 Dubai Price Murban OSP Contribution ($/bbl) Crude Price • Lower gasoline spread due to lower-than-expected demand during US driving season • Softer middle distillate cracks from weak demand and ample supply in the region after poor arbitrage economic to move cargo from Asia to EU. • Slightly decreasing HSFO spread amid firm bunker demand due to longer -voyagers for ships trying to avoid the Red Sea conflict zone • Softer PX margin from weak demand and increasing supply after the restarts of previously shut units for maintenance • Higher BZ margin due to low benzene inventory in China • Stable LAB contribution from weak demand during rainy season • Increasing Base Oil margin on lower HSFO and tight Gr.1 supply from the delay start-up of new Gr.1 plant in China • Improving Bitumen spread due to lower HSFO price and limited supply from production cuts Refinery Aromatic & LAB Lube 1.2 $/bbl QoQ 0.3 $/bbl 0.5 $/bbl QoQ 0 1/bbl Mkt Acc • Lower crude oil price due to concerns over global oil demand growth, which have prompted money managers to sell off futures contracts, putting downward pressure on prices. • Lower crude premium due to higher Murban exports after Ruwais refinery switch to process medium crude 1.6 1.3 3.2 1.4 85.3 78.3 81.6 81.6 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 1.4 (5.4) 1.5 (1.3) Q2/24 Q3/24 . 9M/23 9M/24 Key Highlights
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20 Financial Performance Lower Net Operating Profit from Softer GRM and Falling Crude Oil Prices (4,218) TOP Group Net Profit Q2/24: 5,547 1,179 Net Operating Profit Q2/24 : 3,871 (7,477) Stock G/(L) & Write down on crude & product inventory Q2/24 : 2,130 2,080 Other Items Q2/24 : (454) TOP Group Net Profit and Contribution* Q3/24 (9,742) QoQ (2,692) QoQ (9,607) QoQ 2,534 QoQ Aromatic & LAB Refinery Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All business Overall Solvent & Ethanol F/S & others Q2/24 9M/23 9M/24Q3/24 5,547 MB (4,218) MB 16,499 MB 7,192 MB Petroleum & Lube Petchem Power Others & New Business Unit : Million Baht (MB) Net operating profit Stock g/l & Write down on crude & product inventory Other items incl FX g/l on asset & liability, hedging g/l, tax & non- recurring items (1) • Financial Instruments gain/(loss), and unrealized on financial instruments gain/(loss), and others : Q2/24 84 MB, Q3/24 157 MB, 9M/23 (3,770) MB, 9M/24 130 MB • Foreign exchange gain / (loss) on foreign currency assets and liabilities : Q2/24 (315) MB, Q3/24 866 MB, 9M/23 523 MB, 9M/24 (68) MB • Reversal of income tax (expense) : Q2/24 (1,154) MB, Q3/24 1,057 MB, 9M/23 (3,961) MB, 9M/24 (1,561) MB Remark : (1) Other Items Details *Contribution excluding Stock g/(l) & one-time items 41% 8% 22% 4% 69% 8% 11% 12% 3,871 1,179 21,303 13,616 2,130 (7,477) 2,404 (6,088) (454) 2,080 (7,208) (336) 89% 2% 6% 3% 50% 14% 12% 23%
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Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) Group’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Gross Integrated Margin (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense Refinery Aromatic & LAB Lube Base 21 Aromatic & LAB Refinery Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All business Overall Solvent & Ethanol F/S & others Operating Cost Interest Expense 0.4 2.2 12.0 8.5 9.0 3.8 3.7 5.4 (1.9) 6.9 13.0 8.3 9.1 5.1 (1.7) 4.1 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 0.4 (1.9) 2.2 6.9 11.9 13.0 8.4 8.2 8.9 9.0 3.7 5.1 3.7 (1.7) 5.3 4.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.4 0.1 5.5 10.1 13.414.3 10.09.8 10.410.5 5.7 7.0 5.4 0.0 7.1 5.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.3 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24
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(45,055) (32,833) 34,202 8,396 9,654 2020 2021 2022 2023 9M/24 4,098 (2,485) 29,055 20,251 6,605 8,122 3,259 13,280 (3,301) 12,578 32,668 19,443 5,863 5,547 (4,218) 7,192 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 NP (excl stk G/L before tax) NP (incl stk G/L) 5,343 13,079 33,574 36,386 11,691 6,743 3,209 9,466 (2,056) 28,142 37,187 35,453 10,949 8,873 (4,268) 15,554 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 EBITDA (excl stk G/L) EBITDA (incl stk G/L) 242,840 335,827 505,703 459,402 114,239 119,639 110,018 343,895 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 9M'24 Financial Performance Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB Free Cash Flow* R Restated financial statement Unit: Million THB * Free Cash Flow (FCF) = Operating cash flow – Net CAPEX(PP&E) Net CAPEX (PP&E) Net Profit EBITDASales Revenue -22- 48,377 35,146 31,929 14,503 7,737 Unit: Million THB
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TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios Financial Ratios Net Debt / Equity Statements of Financial Position (Unit: million THB) Trade Payable / Others Long-Term Debt Equities Current Assets Non-Current Assets Cash & ST investment 419,993 Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Sep 24 Net Debt 123,287 million THB (US$ 3,798 million equivalence) 148,246 million THB (US$ 4,582 million equivalence) Total Long-Term Debt As at 30 Sep 24 (32.46 THB/US$) (1) Currency Breakdown Interest Rate Breakdown BBB Negative Watch Outlook Baa3 Negative Outlook A+(Tha) Negative Outlook Avg. Debt Life (yrs) 14.09 yrs Cost of Debt 4.33% Final rating 30 Sep 24 400,779 31 Dec 23 Net Debt / EBITDA (1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt (2) Based on actual performance in the past 12 month 23 THB, 36% USD, 64%11.9 % 6.0 % 12.4 % 7.4 % ROE (2) ROIC (2) 294,622 296,753 90,995 79,067 34,376 24,959 168,312 167,940 159,919 148,247 91,762 84,592 0.9 0.9 31-Dec-23 30-Sep-24 4.2 7.6 31-Dec-23 30-Sep-24 Float Rate, 23% Fixed Rate, 77%
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TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Notes: Excluding approximately 40 M$/year for annual maintenance Updated as of September 2024 * CAPEX of CFP Project including the disposal of asset to transfer ownership in the Energy Recovery Unit (ERU) which is a part of the CFP Project Project Estimated Budgeting for Investment Plan 2024 - 2027 CFP project * 226 Total Ongoing CAPEX 245 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 192 Infrastructure Improvement ( i.e. RHCU Phrase 2, New Bangphra Raw Water Line, New Fuel Oil Tank ) 29 Other Investments ( i.e. Corporate Venture Capital - CVC , Digital Transformation ) 24 Olefins Investment 270 Total CAPEX 741
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Annual DPS (Baht/share) 1.80 3.50 3.50 4.50 2.75 2.55 2.00 3.30 2.70 2.30 1.16 2.70 4.50 5.25 2.65 1.50 0.70 2.60 3.70 3.40 1.2 Dividend Payout 23% 38% 40% 48% N/A 43% 45% 45% 45% 50% N/A 45% 43% 43% 53% 49% N/A 42% 26% 39% 24% Dividend Yield* 4.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.2% 5.2% 7.1% 4.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 2.3% 5.0% 6.7% 6.2% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6% 4.8% 6.9% 6.7% 2.2% Avg TOP price 44.7 63.0 62.7 72.7 53.3 35.9 49.9 69.8 65.1 64.6 50.4 53.5 66.7 84.2 86.9 67.6 44.0 54.4 53.9 50.4 54.9 Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/share * Based on average TOP share price in each year R Based on restated financial statement ** Dividend payout before restated ; 2004 = 25% , 2006 = 43%, 2013 = 45% ** ** ** Dividend Payment Dividend 25 R 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.05 0.60 1.30 0.50 0.80 0.56 0.90 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.00 0.60 2.00 0.65 1.20 2.00 2.75 1.00 1.50 1.40 2.00 2.20 1.50 0.60 1.80 3.00 3.75 1.15 0.50 0.70 2.00 1.70 2.75 1.80 3.50 7.82 9.19 8.66 9.40 0.11 5.91 4.39 7.28 6.04 4.57 (2.03) 5.97 10.40 12.18 4.97 3.08 (1.62) 6.17 15.63 8.70 5.11 FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 FY/08 FY/09 FY/10 FY/11 FY/12 FY/13 FY/14 FY/15 FY/16 FY/17 FY/18 FY/19 FY/20 FY/21 FY/22 FY/23 1H/24 1H Dividend 2H Dividend Year Dividend EPS
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STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS -26-
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Thaioil’s Strategic Direction -27- Portfolio Strategic Direction Strategic Objective Vision Drive for Sustainability Effective Execution Measurement 45% 30% 20% 5% New S-Curve Power Petchem & HVPs Petroleum & HVPs Environment + Social + Governance People + Patronage + Partnership + Platform Empowering Human Life through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals Growth / Earnings Diversity / Sustainability To be a competitive Energy & Chemicals company that delivers sustainable returns & better quality of life to all stakeholders Value Diversification Regional Expansion Platform Petroleum Refinery Aromatics Olefins HVPs/Specialties Value Maximization : Integrated Crude to Chemicals Value Enhancement : Integrated Value Chain Mgmt. Innovation • HVB (D&S) • Bio • New Energy • CVC New S - Curve Stable Earnings • Power
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-28- Value Maximization Integrated Crude to Chemicals Value Enhancement Integrated Value Chain Mgmt. Value Diversification • Maximize legacy assets through CFP and CAP • Jump over towards Specialty Chemicals to deliver value & move closer to end-users • Grow commodities & expand wide range of specialty products portfolio • Vietnam, Indonesia and India as our investment playground & market Strengthen Existing Platform & Extend to Downstream Derivatives/HVPs Marketing Platform for Products & Services of Thaioil Group & PTT Group Creating New Growth Platform with Resilient & Sustainable Portfolio • HVB (D&S) to become future growth platform • Bio & New Energy to seed low carbon business & future growth • Power to provide earning stability through own use & growth along with GPSC Thaioil’s Strategic Direction 3V’s Strategic Execution
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Value Maximization -29- Aspiration Strengthen Existing Platform & Extend to Downstream Derivatives/HVPs CFP CAP Specialty Chemicals Our 1st Priority Regional Growth Platform to downstream derivatives & new business Value focus on Solution Provider, not only Volume • Ensure to achieve flawless start-up • Maximize efficiency and profitability • Enhance feedstock availability for Petchem integration, value chain extension & HVPs through PTT Group downstream collaboration RHCU Start Up HDS - 4 Successfully Start up (Feb’24) CDU - 4 Complex Start Up Construction Strategy towards Start Up CFP Operation Readiness & Create Value towards IC2C Big Long Diversify • Enter the new business • Seek for Bio/ Green feeds & products • Extend value chain and Step into specialty business (High Value-Added: HVA) e.g. Chlor-Alkali/ Ethylene Dichloride (CA/EDC), Fabrication for packaging • Strengthen and expand core business Olefin cracker Naphtha/ Propane LDPE, HDPE, PP BZ/ TL/ MX Business Model of Solution Provider Combines polymer resin with additive/ pigment to create specific material properties Production of a material from two or more constituent materials Compounding Compositing Key End - Markets and High Value Polymers 3 End-markets Electronics Healthcare Automotive 5 High Value Polymers PBT Specialty Urethanes PC PMMA Polyamides Renewables Bio Utilities/Infrastructure e.g. Acquisition of Shell’s Energy and Chemicals Assets in Singapore in May’24 Ensure delivering of CFP as committed Enhance opportunity for expanding into Petrochemical and new business as well as achieve sustainable growth Ensure funding readiness & strengthen liquidity
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30 Clean Fuel Project (CFP) • Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer • Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil Project Rationale Main Objectives Unit : % vol Nelson Index** 275 KBD 400 KBD (+40%) Existing With CFP Capacity Growth Unit : % vol by grade Upgrading Product Mix Feedstock Flexibility CFP Development 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 FID COVID-19 Approval CAPEX 4,825 MUSD Project Cost 4,825 MUSD and with ERU (Power plant) carve out investment cost will be reducedto 4,174 MUSD • Increase competitiveness & ensure TOP quartile positioning • Feedstock cost reduction & flexibility • Produce clean & more valuable product • Plant optimization • Creating opportunity for expanding into Petrochemical business • Enhancement of country’s long term energy stability • Driving force for country’s economic development Benefits to Company Benefits to Thailand Transparent Procurement Process • Reviewed the qualifications of the bidders Track record Expertise and experience in large-scale projects Financial Position • Appointed independent observers during bidding process Adoption of the Integrity Pact approach Involved in all stages of the bidding process acted autonomously and reported their findings and observations directly to the Thaioil's board of directors Other Existing With CFP 17% 62% 25% 23% 53% 7% 13% Light Distillate Middle Distillate (Diesel/Jet) Fuel Oil0% Light Crude Existing With CFP 40-50% Medium Crude Heavy Crude 100% 5 - 15% 40-50% EPC Signed HDS-4 S/U 9.8 12.0 Existing With CFP Upgrading Ratio* 28% 50% Existing With CFP Note: *Upgrading capacity over CDU capacity Note: **Assess the complexity and capability of a refinery EPC Contract Amendment (+550 MUSD and 24m extension)
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Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect (1) New Upgrading Unit (2) New Distillation Unit (3) New Hydrogen Manufacturing Unit (4) New Treating Unit (5) New Sulphur Recovery Unit (6) New Energy Recovery Unit Crude PX/BZ Fuel Oil LPG Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel Hy. Naph Naphtha ISOM LPG Kerosene Diesel Lt.Naph HVU-2/3 HVU-4 RHCU VGO SR CCR-1/2 HDT-3 HDT-4 HDS-2/3 HDS-4 KMT-1/2 LPG Tops TPX Tops HCU-1/2 Platformate CDU-3 180 kbd New CDU-4 220 kbd HCU-3 ERU 400 kbd HMU-1/2&PSA-1/3 HMU-3 & PSA-4 CCR PSA-2 SRU Sulfur Isomerate 1 1 2 2 3 5 4 4 LR TLB Bitumen New unit Existing unit 6 -31-
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Olefins Investment in Indonesia (PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk- CAP) Execute our post - acquisition plan Total capacity • CAP1 4.2 mtpa • CAP1+2 8.1 mtpa Investment Structure Timeline • First tranche completion by 14 Sep 21 • Realize contribution in Q4/21 onwards Investment US$ 1,183 mn • 1st Tranche US$ 913 mn 15.0% • 2nd Tranche US$ 270 mn 0.38% on CAP2 FID Transaction Summary Nominate 3 out of 15 BOCs in CAP Secondment 3 BoDs from TOP to CAP Assign CAP2 Package C Project Manager Strategic Direction to IC2C Strategy Value Maximization: Further extend Hydro-Carbon value chain to Olefins PetChem, in addition to existing Aromatics Value Enhancement: Geographic expansion Platform for international growth -32- New investments to sustain its portfolio • Diversify into electricity and water business • Extend Ethylene chain : Chlor-Alkali (CA) & Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) as of 31 Mar 2024
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Key Partnership Arrangements TOP can nominate 3 out of 15 directors Polymer Products: PE, PP Liquid Products: Benzene, Toluene, Xylene, etc. LPG, Naphtha Commercial Management Involvement Feedstock Products • PT. Tirta Surya Raya (TSR), Est. 2019 • TOP’s solvent and chemical distributor company in indonesia • TOP holds 77.7% in TSR through TOP Solvent Thailand Board of Directors Strategy & Business Development Project Maintenance & Technical ESG & Sustainability 3 board of commissioners and 3 board of directors appointed on Nov’21 Board of Commissioners -33-
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-34- Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Singapore (SECP) Overview Shell Jurong Island Chemical Plants Subsea pipeline Shell Pulau Bukum Integrated Refinery And ECC Import-export infra within scope of deal (jetties, tanks, pipeline) not exhaustively shown on map Pulau Bukom Refinery Ethylene Cracker / ECC 237 kbd Crude Processing Capacity 1.1 Mtpa Ethylene Production Capacity Downstream Chemicals SMPO MEGSECP covers a fully integrated asset with a ~8 – 10 $Bn p.a. revenue Fully integrated value chain to produce an array of fuel and chemical products Highly strategic "hub" location with established petrochemicals ecosystem and strong government support Experienced team with history of strong operations and HSSE track record SM MEG PO MPG HPEO Polyols Differentiated Polyols Ethoxylates Shell Jurong Island (SJI) 50-80% indigenous feedstock from Refinery into ECC 20-30% crude-to-chemfeed conversation ratio 8-10 $Bn p.a. in revenue >100 global chemical firms with major operations located in SG >25 free trade agreements ~85% sales in Singapore served by pipeline (mainly olefins) ~1,500 FTE included 15 average years of service 0 fatalities since 2005 (PulauBukom and Jurong Island)
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Value Enhancement -35- Commodities (BAU + CFP) HVPs/ Specialties (5 end-markets) Personal Care Food & NutritionHealthcare Automotive Electronics Petroleum Lube base Aromatics/ Olefins/LAB Solvents & Chemicals Specialty ChemicalsD&S Aspiration Marketing Platform for Products & Services of Thaioil Group & PTT Group TOPNEXT India (TX India) Strategic Countries Geographical Presence as International Marketing Arm Establish: 2021 TOP Solvent Myanmar (TS MM) Establish: 2017 TOPNEXT** (TX) Establish: 2008 JSKEM* TOP Solvent (Vietnam) (TSV) Establish: 2009 * JV partner ** Rebrand from TOP Solvent to TOPNEXT International in 2022 Establish: 2021 PT. Tirta Surya Raya (TSR)* Establish: 2019 Thailand Indonesia India Vietnam “International marketing arm of Thaioil Group”
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Value Diversification -36- Aspiration Creating New Growth Platform with Resilient & Sustainable Portfolio Target 2030 : Generate 20% HVB & New S-Curve and 5% Power of Thaioil Group net profit HVB New S - Curve New S - Curve High Value Business (D&S) Our future Growth Platform beyond CFP Business Model & Application • Technology and Green1 1.2 Hydrogen/CCUS • Bioethanol • Biojet/SAF • Biochemicals/Bioplastics & Well Being 1.1 Bio • CVC 2 Manufacturing Intelligence Technology Sustainability Technology New Energy & Mobility Tech nology Asia Scalable IOT services US High Tech Industrial Sensor TH Medical Device (Drug delivery) TH Biotechnology developer UK Bio-Surfactant US Autonomous Vehicle Sensor US New Green H2 production Power “ Provide stable earnings ” Own use Growth along PTT Group (GPSC) 1 2 • Optimization after TOPSPP expansion • Support Net Zero Pathway • Support GPSC to achieve 20 GW by 2030 focusing on renewable energy Specialty Ingredients Suppliers Downstream Formulations Personal Care I&I Cleaning Paints & Coatings
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Our Commitment towards Sustainability 37 Solar Power Generation System Installation to Koh Sichang Hospital Collaboration with PTT Group to Support the Sports Association of Thailand Partnered with FIFA on School Project to reduce electricity burdens and build up electricity power stability to help enhance Koh Sichang’s residents with quality of life. and promoting the nation's creative power (soft power) as well as enhancing the public's health to develop football skills and knowledge, create learning experiences, and inspire youth in the Laem Chabang area 2024 THAILAND TOP CEO OF THE YEAR in the energy industry category 2024 Asian Excellence Awards (5 prestigious awards) Asia’s Best CEO Asia’s Best CFO Best Investor Relations Professional Sustainable Asia Best Investor Relations Company Awards Highlight CSR Activities in Q2/ 2024 Proactively deliver positive impacts to community & society through CSR, SE Awards in Q2/ 2024 These awards reflect the leadership's ability and excellent management, along with our commitment to ESG responsibility, and the disclosure of information to all stakeholders. Sustainability Awards of Honor in SET Awards 2023 for 6th Consecutive years Highest Rating “AAA” in SET ESG Ratings as a sustainable stock listed for 9th Consecutive year The Highest Score (Top1%) for Sustainable Development for the 9th year & DJSI Member for 11th consecutive year in oil & gas refining and marketing industry Recognized as sustainable company
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WELL–TIMED NET ZERO GHG EMISSION EXECUTION Cut Down Existing Emission Compensate Residual Emission Control Future Emission Net Zero Target (Scope 1&2) Net Zero GHG Emission Strategy Approach to our Net Zero “3Cs” Energy Efficiency Improvement Decarbonization Technology Forestation Carbon Credit -38- Net Zero 2050 2050 2050 2060 2060 2065 Carbon Neutral 2040 - - 2050 2050 2050 2060 2050 2035 Interim Target 15% Reduction PTT Collaborations CCS CCU Hydrogen Renewable Energy ReforestationBio Business Decarbonization as Business Cut Down Existing Emission Fuel Switching Carbon Capturing and Storage Combustion & Energy Efficiency Others e.g. new technology in the future
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Targets & Performance : GHG Emission Mitigation : Green Product Mitigation : Green Operation Then, Energy Efficiency is the key measurement for GHG mitigation in short term, which included in Corporate KPI as Energy Intensity Index (EII) In 2023, Thaioil Group had 5 green product categories and 14 types of environmentally friendly products Direct GHG Emissions Targets (Scope 1&2) Direct GHG Emissions Performance (Scope 1&2) Energy efficiency improvement is the major part of our net zero pathway for short- to medium- term as it is the measure that we can carry out straightaway while we are working on long term project. • 207 projects • GHG emissions reduction ~ 427,483 tons of CO2e • Energy cost saving ~ 2,183 MTHB Energy Efficiency Improvement 2012 - 2023 GHG Reduction 2012 – 2023 ~ 427,483 ton CO2e 2023 ~ 28,003 ton CO2e GHG emissions reduction from Energy efficiency Improvement 2023 ~ 28,003 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e) GHG EMISSION MITIGATION & PERFORMANCE 2023 ~ 931,282 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e) In 2023, GHG emissions was avoided by end user through using of GHG avoided product -39- Remark : In 2023, Thaioil Group had GHG Emissions Scope 2 that originate from the purchase of electricity or steam for consumption for internal production process for the total of 8,244 tCO2e, or 0.24% of greenhouse gas emissions (Scopes 1 and 2). (Source : Integrated Report 2012-2023) • Bio-based Products (i.e., bio-ethanol from casava and corn) • Biodegradable Products • Compostable Products • Emission Reduction Products (i.e., benzene free chemicals, low PAH solvent) • GHG Avoided Products (i.e., biodiesel and gasohol)
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2025 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Thailand Petroleum markets • Lube and Bitumen • Aromatics • Olefins
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Economic Stability and Policy Measures to Support Oil Demand Growth Steady Economic Growth amid China’s Stimulus Package and EU & US Disinflation Trends ____________________ (1) Source : IMF (Oct’24) (2) Source: Reuters (Oct’24) (3) Source : EIA (Oct’24) 1 Slightly Higher Oil Demand Growth following Improving Economic Activities Driven by Lower Interest Rates and Stimulus Measures 2 US: 5.25%-5.50% EU: 4.0%-4.5% World GDP Outlook (1) -2.7% 6.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -0.1% from Jul’24 revision US and EU Interest Rate (2) 0% 2% 4% 6% Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 US and EU Inflation Rate (2) -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 EU China Unveils Broad Stimulus Measures Rate Cut RRR Cut Reviving Stocks PBOC launched a major stimulus package to target 5% growth in 2024, focusing on lowering interest rates and boosting financial liquidity US EU US • Slight improvement in Chinese economy bolstered by several stimulus packages • Continued interest rate cuts by 25 -bps in Dec’24 followed by 100 -bps cuts in 2025 following lower inflation in the US and EU 18 19 20 21 22 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 2025 : 20.5 (+0.21 MBD YoY) US Oil Demand, MBD (3) 2024 : 20.3 (+0.01 MBD YoY) 12 13 14 15 16 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 2025 : 14.2 (-0.02 MBD YoY) Europe Oil Demand, MBD (3) 2024 : 14.2 (-0.01 MBD YoY) 14 15 16 17 18 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 2025 : 16.8 (+0.26 MBD YoY) China Oil Demand, MBD (3) 2024 : 16.5 (+0.09 MBD YoY) 3 4 5 6 7 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 2025 : 5.8 (+0.28 MBD YoY) India Oil Demand, MBD (3) 2024 : 5.6 (+0.28 MBD YoY) Global Oil Demand Growth (3) 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 2024 2025 MBD US: Improving demand following rate cuts boosting economic activities EU: Steady demand amid transition towards renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency China: Demand recovery following higher economic growth driven by announced monetary stimulus measures India: Firm demand growth driven by the expansion of industrial activities and rapid urbanization
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OPEC+ is Facing Challenges to Unwind the Cut in 2025 amid Heavy Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth 3 ____________________ (1) Source : OPEC (Oct’24) (2) Source: EIA (Oct’24) Higher Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth from North & South America -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Avg 2025: 55.2 MBD (+1.37 MBD) MBD Non-OPEC+ Production Growth YoY by Main Country (2) Others (+0.33 MBD) Brazil (+0.17 MBD) Guyana (+0.17 MBD) Canada (+0.25 MBD) US (+0.45 MBD) Avg 2024: 53.8 MBD (+1.28 MBD) 32 34 36 38 40 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 OPEC+ Production OPEC+ Production (Unwinding Plan) 4 Is there any room for OPEC+ to Unwind the Cut ? MBD OPEC+ Production (1,2) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Non-OPEC+ OPEC+ Supply Growth Surplus Demand Growth 2025 Total Liquid Balance (2) MBD • Oil supply growth from Non-OPEC+ is sufficient to meet additional demand • To balance the market, OPEC+ needs to revisit their unwinding cut strategy as there is no room for OPEC+ production growth Key Factors to Watch >>>> +/- Uncertainty on Iran retaliation +/- Qatar suspended efforts for Gaza ceasefire + Trump signals to support Israel + US economic recovery + Escalation of the ME conflict + Stronger stance against Iran - Ending Russia-Ukraine war - More US oil production - Trade tension and tariffs 2024 US President Impact to oil price Bear Neutral Bull Softer Oil Price due to Supply Surplus in 2025 mainly from Higher Non-OPEC+ Growth amid Slightly Higher Oil Demand Growth Avg 2025: 36.8 MBD (+ 1.1 MBD)Avg 2024: 35.7 MBD (-1.4 MBD)
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Singapore Cracking Margin 3.20 3.46 6.51 1.67 3.71 1.18 (0.93) 0.05 1.22 0.38 1.82 2.10 3.80 6.11 3.37 7.96 21.40 7.12 6.30 10.70 8.21 4.02 9.60 5.48 6.83 7.32 3.51 3.62 5.02 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Y2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Y2020 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Y2021 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Y2022 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Y2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Avg. 2019: $3.7/BBL Avg. 2020: $0.4/BBL Avg. 2022 : $10.7/BBLAvg. 2021: $3.4/BBL Avg. 2023 : $6.8/BBL ____________________ (1) QTD as of 8 Nov 24 Avg. 2024 : $4.7/BBL 1 Key Highlights 2025 vs 2024 Recovering Jet/Kero and Gasoil Demand from Increasing Commercial Flights and Economic Activities in 2025 Pressured Gasoline Market from the Ramp-up of Dangote and Olmeca Increasing Refined Product Supply from the Startup of New Refineries
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-0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 2 4 6 8 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5Yr Range 19-23 2022 2023 2024 2025 5Yr Avg 19-23 _________________________ (1) Source : EA (Oct’24) (2) Source : ACI (Feb’24) (3) Source : Platts (Sep’24) Medium-term Passenger Traffic Forecast by Region(2) Stronger jet demand on growth in commercial flights, led by Asian flight to surpass pre-COVID-19. Recovering Jet/Kero and Gasoil Demand from Commercial Flights and Economic Activities in 2025 Global Jet/Kero Demand (1) MBD Q4 vs Q3’24: +0.01 MBD (+0.1%) 2025 vs 2024: +0.25 MBD (+3.2%) (Indexed, 2019 = 100%) 2019 level 22 24 26 28 30 32 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5Yr Range 19-23 2022 2023 2024 2025 5Yr Avg 19-23 Global Gasoil Demand (1) MBD Q4 vs Q3’24: +0.45 MBD (+1.6%) 2025 vs 2024: +0.25 MBD (+3.2%) Gasoil Demand Change in Asia (2) %YOY 2023 2024 2025 Supportive gasoil market from steady economic growth led by Asia1 2
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0 200 400 600 H1'24 H2'24 H1'25 H2'25 H1'26 LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Gasoil Fuel Oil Gasoline Market Pressured by Upcoming Supply in 2025 amid Asian Demand Growth 20 22 24 26 28 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5Yr Range 19-23 2022 2023 2024 2025 5Yr Avg 19-23 Global Gasoline Demand (1) MBD _________________________ (1) Source : EA (Oct’24) (2) Source: FGE (Sep’24) Q4 vs Q3’24: -0.59 MBD (-2.1%) 2025 vs 2024: +0.32 MBD (+1.2%) Dangote-Product Yields (2) KBD Higher global gasoline demand in 2025 mainly from Asian market due to government spending on infrastructure in India Gasoline market to be pressured by new supplies from Nigeria’s Dangote and Mexico’s Olmeca refineries 0 100 200 300 H1'24 H2'24 H1'25 H2'25 H1'26 Petroleum Coke Fuel Oil Gasoil Gasoline Naphtha LPG Olmeca-Product Yields (2) KBD 1 2 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5Yr Range 19-23 2022 2023 2024 2025 5Yr Avg 19-23 Asia Gasoline Demand (1) MBD Q4 vs Q3’24: +0.03 MBD (+0.4%) 2025 vs 2024: +0.16 MBD (+2.0%)
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Slightly Recovering Refining Margin in 2025 on Improving Demand amid New Upcoming Capacity Upcoming Supply from New Refineries Key Factor to Watch : Project delay and start-up difficulty Jan’23KBDRefinery 650 615 340 Dangote (Nigeria) Olmeca (Mexico) Al-Zour (Kuwait) Ramp up Normal OperationConstruction Delay from Q4’23 Delay from 2021 Delay from Q2’24 Status Est. 2H’24 runs 60%-70% Delay S/U from Q2’24 to Q1’25 Jan’24 Jan’25 430 Previously Planned S/U Q1’25 S/U Q4’24Yulong (China) Normal Operation 350 Previously Planned S/U Q2’26 S/U Q4’26Panipat (India) 181 Previously Planned S/U Q2’25 S/U Q2’26Rajasthan (India) _________________________________________________________________________________ Source: FACTs Semi Annual Reports Spring (Apr ’24), FACTs AWRO (May’24) Energy Aspect (Oct’24) Note: Adjusted capacity based on start -up period (effective additional capacity) Global Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand 85% 77% 80% 83% 84% 83% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% (3,000) (1,800) (600) 600 1,800 3,000 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 KBD Incremental Demand Other Asia FSU Latin America Africa North America India Europe China Middle East Incremental Capacity Operating Rate [RHS] Improving in Commercial Flights and Economic Activities leading to Surpassed Demand Growth vs New Capacity Addition Jan’26
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5.4 4.8 5.5 6.4 5.4 5.3 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 2024F 2025F 19.6 7.5 4.9 9.1 13.7 17.0 14.9 15.2 17.7 16.2 18.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 2024F 2025F 65.5 64.5 62.7 72.8 68.7 70.8 69.2 65.2 69.7 68.7 69.4 0 20 40 60 80 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 2024F 2025F 32.2 31.7 29.1 30.2 31.4 31.4 31.3 31.0 31.9 31.4 31.7 0 10 20 30 40 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 2024F 2025F Domestic Demand: Slow growth of Petroleum Demand in 2025 Source: DOEB, PTT & TOP Estimation (Oct’’24) Factor/Policy to Watch in 2025 Foreign Tourists • +11% YoY in 2025 (more than 40 million people) (Source: TAT) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) • Low MPI in 2025 pressured by high household debt (Source: OIE) Private Consumption Index (PCI) • Slow growth of PCI: +2.9% YoY in 2025 (compared with 2023 at +7.1% YoY) (Source: MOF) Slow growth from low Private Consumption Index growth Slow growth pressured by weak domestic economics and low commercial car sales Higher jet demand from increasing number of flights and tourists Stable demand pressured by global & domestic economics and low industrial demand Gasoline Demand MML/Day MML/Day Gasoil Demand MML/Day Jet Demand MML/Day Fuel Oil Demand Pre-COVID level Pre-COVID level Pre-COVID level Pre-COVID level Q4’24 vs Q3’24: +6.8% 2024 vs 2023: +0.1% 2025 vs 2024: +1.0% Q4’24 vs Q3’24: +5.8% 2024 vs 2023: -8.2% 2025 vs 2024: +0.1% Q4’24 vs Q3’24: +2.8% 2024 vs 2023: +0.1% 2025 vs 2024: +0.9% Remark: Demand excl. marine diesel 1 2 3 4 Q4’24 vs Q3’24: +16.2% 2024 vs 2023: +18.0% 2025 vs 2024: +14.1% Government Policy • Supporting retail price by oil fuel fund • Environmental policy e.g carbon tax (Source: Energy News Center) Passenger car sales and commercial car sales • Slow growth in 2025 from high household debt and tighter financing rules (Source: FTI)
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Improving PX Market as Demand Growth Outpacing Capacity Addition amid BZ Supply Surplus ____________________ Source: CMA (Fall 24), TOP Estimation 5.6 8.4 1.7 6.0 8.7 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 2.6 0.0 4.7 3.7 1.9 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% (1) 1 3 5 7 9 11 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 PX Effective Capacity Addition PX Demand Growth Operating rate (%) Global PX Capacity Addition vs. Demand Growth Mt Global BZ Capacity Addition vs. Demand Growth Mt 1 2 Country BZ Company Nameplate Capacity (KTA) Start-up China CNOOC Ningbo Daxie 240 Jan’23 China Sinopec Hainan R&C 410 Jul’23 China CNOOC Huizhou, #2 540 Jul’23 Japan ENEOS (140) Nov’23 China Sinopec Tianjin 205 Dec’24 Saudi Arabia Aramco (Jizan) 250 Jan’25 China ExxonMobil Huizhou 480 Jan’25 India Indian Oil 365 Jul’25 Korea S-Oil 270 Jan’26 China Shandong Yulong Phase 1 740 Jan’26 China Shandong Yulong Phase 2 1340 Jan’27 Major PX Plant Start-up Major BZ Plant Start-up Country PX Company Nameplate Capacity (KTA) Start-up China Shenghong 2000 Jan’23 China CNOOC Ningbo Daxie 1600 Mar’23 China CNOOC Huizhou, #2 1500 Jul’23 Japan ENEOS (194) Jan’24 Saudi Arabia Aramco (Jizan) 800 Jan’25 India Indian Oil 800 Jul’25 China Shandong Yulong Phase 1 1500 Jan’26 China Shandong Yulong Phase 2 1500 Jan’27 Delay from Sep’24 Delay from Jan’24 Delay from Mar’24 1.8 3.0 2.2 2.0 3.8 1.9 1.71.0 -0.6 2.5 -0.3 0.2 1.0 1.7 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% (1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 BZ Effective Capacity Addition BZ Demand Growth Operating rate (%) Delay from Dec’25 Delay from Dec’25 Delay from Dec’25 Delay from Dec’25
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Challenging Olefins Market from High Capacity Addition ____________________ Source: CMA (Fall 24), TOP Estimation 2.9 5.4 5.2 5.9 6.1 5.3 5.6 2.4 3.9 3.8 0.8 2.5 3.2 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 2 4 6 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 PP Effective Capacity Addition PP Demand Growth Operating rate (%) 1.4 3.9 3.1 3.8 4.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.7 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 1 2 3 4 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 HDPE Effective Capacity Addition HDPE Demand Growth Operating rate (%) Global HDPE Capacity Addition vs. Demand Growth Mt Global PP Capacity Addition vs. Demand Growth Mt Country HDPE Company Nameplate Capacity (KTA) Start-up China PetroChina Guangdong 800 Feb’23 China Sinopec Hainan 300 Feb’23 India Shandong Jinhai 400 Mar’23 China Ningxia Baofeng 400 Sep’23 China PetroChina Jilin 400 May’25 China Inner Mongolia Baofeng 825 Jun’25 China Shandong Yulong #1 600 Jan’26 China Shandong Yulong #2 750 Apr’26 Major HDPE Plant Start-up Country PP Company Nameplate Capacity (KTA) Start-up China Sinopec Hainan #1, #2 500 Feb’23 China Dongguan Grand 600 Jun’23 China Jinneng #1, #2 450, 450 Jan’24, Jun’24 China Quanzhou Grand Pacific 450 May’24 China Fujian Zhongjing 600 Jun’24 India Naraya Energy 450 Aug’24 China Zhejiang Yuanjin 600 Nov’24 China ExxonMobil (Huizhou) 955 Jan’25 China Inner Mongolia Baofeng 1500 Jun’25 Saudi Arabia Advanced Polyolefins 800 Jul’25 China Shandong Yulong #1 800 Jan’26 China Shandong Yulong #2 1100 Apr’26 Major PP Plant Start-up 1 2 Delay from Jun’24 Delay from Oct’24 Delay from May’24 Delay from Oct’24 Delay from Oct’24 Delay from Oct’24 Delay from Oct’24 Delay from May’25
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-50- Slightly Softer Base Oil Market from More Gr.2/3 Supply Addition 1 Potential additional capacity from new Gr.2/3 plants AP/ME Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition vs. Demand Growth (1,2) MTON 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.9 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Country Company Nameplate Capacity (KTA) Group Start-up India IOC (Haldia) 120 2 Q2’24 China *PetroChina Fushun 330 1 Aug’24 India BPCL 450 2/3 2024 India IOC (Vadodara) 235 2/3 Ely 2025 India IOC (Haldia) 150 3 Apr’25 Singapore ExxonMobil 1,000 2 2025 Lube Plant Start-up *shut due to the poor production margins Slightly Higher Thailand Bitumen Demand in 20253 KM Thailand Maintenance Bituminous Road (4) 44,666 44,940 45,572 45,869 45,935 46,236 46,530 40,000 45,000 50,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 19% 30% 37% 14% Ratio in 2025 North Central Northeast South -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2 Expected Lube and Bitumen Spreads to return to Pre-Covid levels $/TON Historical Prices (1,3) Gr.1 500SN HSFO Bitumen ____________________ (1) Source : Argus (Oct’24) (2) Source : SMC (2023) (3) Source: ICIS (Oct’24) (4) Source : Bareau of Maintenance (Oct’24)
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-51-Conclusion 2025 Market Outlook Conclusion Crude Oil Refinery Petchem Improving PX Market as Demand Growth Outpacing Capacity Addition amid Surplus BZ Supply Challenging Olefins Market from High Capacity Addition Slightly Recovering Refining Margin from Flight Demand and Stable Economic Growth amid New Capacity Addition Softer Oil Price due to Supply Surplus in 2025 mainly from Non-OPEC+ amid Slightly Higher Oil Demand Growth Lube Base Slightly Softer Base Oil Market from More Gr.2/3 Supply Addition -51- (vs. 2024)
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-52- -52- FINAL REMARK
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-53- 2025 Mission (1) 4 Key Strategies to Overcoming Challenges 01 • Strengthen operation reliability and safety • Resume SBM operation • Speed up CFP construction despite challenges during the development of the project • Emphasize healthy profit through productivity improvement Strengthen Refinery Business 03 • Continuously stringent cost management • Proactive commodity hedging and FX risk management • Maintain credit rating Financial Strength 02 • Continuously expedite High Value Products (HVPs) • D&S commercial development • Strengthen market distribution Value Chain Extension 04 • Environment: Energy efficiency improvement • Social: Enhancing quality of life for people in the communities surrounding the refinery area • Governance: zero corruption & fraud incident thru integrated GRC framework Drive for Sustainability
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APPENDIX • CAPEX Plan • Financial Performance • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -54-
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TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Notes: Excluding approximately 40 M$/year for annual maintenance * CAPEX of CFP Project including the disposal of asset to transfer ownership in the Energy Recovery Unit (ERU) which is a part of the CFP Project Project Actual 9M’24 2024 2025 2026 2027 CFP project * 143 355 (129) - - Total Ongoing CAPEX 54 146 87 8 4 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement Infrastructure Improvement ( i.e. RHCU Phrase 2, New Bangphra Raw Water Line, New Fuel Oil Tank ) Other Investments ( i.e. Corporate Venture Capital - CVC , Digital Transformation ) Olefins Investment - 270 - - Total CAPEX 197 501 227 8 4 Updated as of September 2024
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Refinery : Lower Contribution Slightly Declining GRM due to Softer Product Spreads and Stock Loss 56 Aromatic & LAB Refinery Base Oil GIM Power Olefins All business Overall Solvent & Ethanol F/S & others Gross Refinery Margins (GRM) ($/bbl) Acc. GRM GO - DB JET - DB ULG95 - DB VLSFO - DB HSFO - DB 13.1 13.6 11.1 6.3 (5.3) Q3’24 Key Petroleum Product Spreads ($/bbl) MB-DB Dubai 78.3 1.3 Q3’24 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4TD 2023 2024 Crude Price and Premium ($/bbl) Crude Intake (%) Refinery Utilization (%) 111% 113% 112% 110% Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 Middle East Crude Intake Murban Crude Intake Q3/24 Market GRM Performance + Q3’24: Higher refinery run rate at 113% to capture domestic demand 92% 90% 91% 92% -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4TD 2023 2024 9M’24 15.8 17.2 14.0 4.9 (6.7) Q4TD as of 11 Nov 2024 1.4 81.6 9M’24 10.0 4.5 12.4 7.2 9.0 3.8 3.7 9.0 5.4 (3.5) (2.0) 9.8 (5.1) 0.1 1.4 (5.4) 1.5 (1.3) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M 9M 2023 2024 23 24 Market GRM Stock G/(L) − Lower gasoline spread due to lower -than- expected demand during US driving season. − Softer middle distillate cracks from weak demand and ample supply in the region after poor arbitrage economic to move cargo from Asia to EU. + Increasing HSFO spread driven by firm bunker demand due to longer -voyagers for ships trying to avoid the Red Sea conflict zone. + Increasing VLSFO spread driven by higher demand for power generation in ME. + Lower crude premium due to higher Murban exports after Ruwais refinery switch to process medium crude. 6.4 2.5 22.2 2.1 9.1 5.1 (1.7) 10.5 4.1 46% 45% 38% 46% Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 2024
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57 Gross Integrated Margins (GIM) & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F) Aromatic’s Sales (excluding by product) (Kton) Q3’24 Aromatic Spreads ($/ton) LAB Utilization (%) TPX Utilization (%) Q3/24 Market GIM (QoQ) Performance + Q3’24: Higher TPX utilization rate at 83% from optimization. + Q3’24: Stable LAB utilization rate at 125%. − Softer PX margin from weak demand and increasing supply after the restarts of previously shut units for maintenance. + Higher BZ margin due to low benzene inventory in China. − Softer LAB contribution from weak demand during rainy season. GIM ($/bbl) PX BZ TL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M 9M 2023 2024 23 24 P2F ($/ton) 65 49 31 55 67 79 65 48 70 8.6 6.0 4.1 7.2 9.2 10.3 8.7 6.4 9.2P2F ($/bbl) Aromatics : Softening Contribution Pressured by Weak Demand from Concerns over Economic Slowdown Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M 9M 2023 2024 23 24 0 50 100 150 200 250 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4TD 2023 2024 125% 125% 123% 123% Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 80% 83% 71% 80% Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.3 2024 Q4TD as of 11 Nov 2024 9M’24 PX-ULG95 182 190 BZ-ULG95 227 19987 102 96 88 90 101 95 284 28638 37 22 23 27 28 25 97 81 7 11 13 26 18 18 26 31 61 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M 9M 2023 2024 23 24 20242024
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M 9M 2023 2024 23 24 58 F/S & others Gross Integrated Margins (GIM) & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F) TLB’s Sales (excluding by product) (Kton) Bitumen-HSFO 500SN-HSFO 546 (22) Q3’24 Base Oil & Bitumen ($/ton) TLB Utilization (%) Q3/24 Market GIM Performance GIM ($/bbl) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M 9M 2023 2024 23 24 P2F ($/ton) P2F ($/bbl) Base Oil : Higher Contribution Due to Increasing Lube & Bitumen Margins from Limited Supply 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 172 136 85 97 90 72 88 124 83 26 21 13 14.3 13.3 10.9 13.4 19 12.5 52 55 52 49 47 55 5829 33 32 32 30 34 35104 127 109 100 92 114 114 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023 2024 Base Oil Specialty Bitumen + Q3’24: Higher utilization rate at 86% from group optimization + Increasing Base Oil margin on lower HSFO and tight Gr.1 supply from the delay start-up of new Gr.1 plant in China. + Improving Bitumen spread due to lower HSFO price and limited supply from production cuts. -200 0 200 400 600 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4TD 2023 2024 83% 86% 80% 79% Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/23 9M/24 525 9M’24 (55) Q4TD as of 11 Nov 2024 266 159 255 99 570 320 9M 9M 23 24
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Power : Lower Contribution Due to the Limited Supply from Plant Maintenance 59 EBITDA (Million Baht ) Net Profit (Million Baht ) 100% 10% (1) TOP shareholding in GPSC decreased from 24.29% to 15.38% in Nov’20 – Jan’21, and increase to 20.78% in Feb’21 after TP’s EBT completion (2) TOP shareholding in GPSC decreased from 20.78% to10.0% in Jun’22 after GPSC sale execution according to recapitalization plan (1)(2) Dividend income Since Jun’22 Q3/24 Performance Highlight - Lower contribution from TOP SPP from limited supply due to gas turbine maintenance. + Dividend income from GPSC in Q3/24 (127 MB) Consolidated to TOP 1,4961,9071,4562,4882,667 2,513 1,799 2,140 3,029 822 782 668 2,272 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 SPP (TOP SPP) Equity income / Dividend income from GPSC* * TOP shareholding in GPSC changed from 20.78% to 10% end of May’22 and change from equity method to general investment (receive dividend) Electricity Sales (GWh) Steam Sales (kton) 2,455 1,656 1,559 2,063 553 566 516 1,634 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 884 994 1,342 1,737 474 435 336 1,245 1,783 1,494 114 170 124 127 251 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 474 559 4,126 2,459 2,249 3,138 889 878 860 2,626 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 463
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Olefins : Improving Contribution From Port and Storage Services Operations Polymer Spreads Net Profit (million USD) Q3/24 Performance Highlight TOP Investment Indonesia (TII)* Performance Monomer Spreads Olefin Product Spreads + Improving contribution mainly from Chandra Pelabuhan Nusantara (CPN), CAP’subsidiary providing integrated port and bulk liquid storage services, started operation in July’24. 60 *TII shareholding in CAP 15% since Sep’21 583 651 396 337 326 328 315 323 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 PP CFR SEA - NaphJ ($/TON) (2.8) (23.0) (5.7) (5.5) (2.6) (2.1) (10.2) 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 500 536 418 394 354 364 323 347 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 HDPE CFR SEA - NaphJ ($/TON) 384 551 442 394 435 509 480 475 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 SM- NaphJ ($/TON) 313 360 276 270 523 746 830 700 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 BD- NaphJ ($/TON)
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225 189 206 87 54 29 11 94 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 Solvent : Softer Contribution from Lower Selling Price Ethanol : Softer Contribution from Higher Operating Cost Utilization Rate(2) Net Profit (million THB) Q3/24 Performance Highlight Solvent Business EBITDA (million THB) Ethanol Business - Lower contributionresulted from decreased selling prices, which followed the decline in oil prices, as well as FX loss from Baht appreciation. Net Profit (million THB) - Lower contribution due to higher operating expense from planned maintenance. EBITDA (million THB) Production Rate(1) (1) Based on SAKC utilization, which TOPNEXT holds 80.52% stake in SAKC. SAKC’s capacity increased from 141 kTA to 214 kTA since Apr 2023. (2) Based on SAPTHIP utilization, which TET holds 50% stake in SAPTHIP. 61 74% 79% 77% 73% 93% 90% 97% 93% 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 632 1,041 1,043 887 285 255 212 752 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 310 663 525 403 236 104 (3) 336 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 100% 86% 101% 93% 103% 81% 77% 87% 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 Q3/24 Performance Highlight 44 18 1 (5) (17) (21) 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 9M/24 549
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Consolidated Financial Performance 62 QoQ Analysis YoY Analysis A. Lower average selling prices compared to Q2 B. Lower Market GIM from lower refinery product spreads and significant stock loss C. FX gain due to Bath appreciation against US Dollar D. Gain from bond by back 931 MB (before tax) in Q2 E. Reversal of income tax 1,057 MB F. Lower Market GIM and stock loss was recorded compared to stock gain in 9M/23 G. Improved hedging loss compared to 9M/23 H. FX gain due to Bath appreciation against US Dollar I. Gain from bond buy back 1,163 MB (before tax) J. Lower income tax expenses (1) FX G/(L) mainly from AR/AP, FCD, Bond, and loan including realized loss from bond buy back (273) MB (2) Excluding interest expenses which were capitalized in PPE (MB) Q3/24 Q2/24 QoQ+/(-) Q3/23 YoY+/(-) 9M/24 9M/23 YoY+/(-) Sales Revenue 110,018 119,639 (9,621) A) 119,656 (9,638) 343,895 344,066 (171) Net Realized G/(L) on commodity hedging 95 270 (175) (2,490) 2,585 401 (1,713) 2,114 EBITDA (4,268) 8,873 (13,141) B) 18,973 (23,241) 15,554 31,772 (16,218)F) EBITDA excl. Stk G/(L)&NRV 3,209 6,743 (3,534) 11,108 (7,899) 21,642 29,368 (7,726) Net G/(L) of Financial Instrument 62 (186) 248 (2,028) 2,090 (271) (2,057) 1,786G) FX G/(L)(1) 1,645 (234) 1,879C) (517) 2,162 540 (962) 1,502H) Other Income (Bond buy back) - 931 (931)D) - - 1,163 - 1,163I) Financial cost(2) (1,011) (1,008) (3) (1,032) 21 (3,066) (3,036) (30) Income Tax (Expense) 1,057 (1,154) 2,211E) (2,680) 3,737 (1,561) (3,961) 2,400J) Net Profit (4,218) 5,547 (9,765) 10,828 (15,046) 7,192 16,499 (9,307) EPS (THB/Share) (1.89) 2.48 (4.37) 4.85 (6.74) 3.22 7.39 (4.17) Stock G/(L) and NRV (7,477) 2,130 (9,607) 7,865 (15,342) (6,088) 2,404 (8,492) THB/US$ - average selling 34.97 36.87 (1.90) 35.34 (0.37) 35.85 34.69 1.16 THB/US$ - ending selling 32.46 37.01 (4.55) 36.72 (4.26) 32.46 36.72 (4.26)
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Loans proceeding 15,218 Loans repayment (10,246) Bond issue / (Paid) (10,289) Interest (5,106) Dividend& Others (9,522) Dividend income 534 ST investment (2,018) CAPEX (PP&E) & others (8,266) Net income 8,794 Depreciation & NRV 8,590 Other adj. (2,361) Change in working capital 4,381 Consolidated Cash Flow 63 Operating Investing Financing 19,404 (9,750) (19,945) 1) 2) Unit : Million Baht 34,376 19,404 Cash Ending 31 Dec 2023 Operating Investing Financing Effect of FX Changes 9,654 Free Cash Flow 10,765 (9,750) (19,945) (474) 4) Cash Ending 30 Sep 2024 24,959 3) 1) AR and inventory 7,264 MB AP (3,098) MB. Oil Fuel fund 22 MB 3) ST-loan SAPT 1,921, TX Group 6,327 LT-loan, TOP 1,550, LABIX 381, TX group 53, SAPT 15 2) ST-loan TX Group 6,250, SAPT, 1,926 LT-loan TOP 7,000 MB, TX group 43 MB 4) Effect of FX changes was mainly from the FX gain/loss of FCD and other adjustments
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Gross Refinery Margin & Crude Refinery Input World GRM 64
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Global Crude Oil Inventories Inventories 65
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Global Gasoline Inventories Inventories 66
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Global Middle Distillate Inventories Inventories 67
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Global Fuel Oil Inventories Inventories 68
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China’s Refined Product Exports 69
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-70- Domestic LPG Demand LPG Demand by Sector LPG Demand Highlight • In 8M’24, LPG demand increased by 3.2% YoY. The demand was supported by petrochemical, automobile and cooking sector, which increased by 6.4%, 7.6% and 1.1% YoY, respectively. However, the demand was pressured by industrial sector, which decreased by 6.1% YoY, respectively. Outlook for 2024 • LPG demand is expected to be increased by around 2% YoY, mainly from automobile sector, due to fuel switching to LPG from higher gasoline retail price. In addition, LPG demand for cooking sector tends to be stable, as Ministry of Energy (MOE) plans to fix the retail price of LPG for cooking at 423 baht per 15 kg cylinder until 30 Dec’24, in order to help reducing the cost of living. Thailand LPG Demand Remark : LPG demand includes Petrochemical consumption Source: EPPO, DOEB (As of Nov 2024) KT/Day KT/MTH Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products 16.3 17.3 18.0 19.4 19.5 20.1 20.7 19.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 2023 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2022 2023 2024 Cooking Industrial Automobile Petrochemical 70
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-71- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand by Grade GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight • In 9M’24, Gasoline demand slightly decreased by 0.5% YoY. The demand was pressured by lower demand of GSH 95 E10, E 20 and E 85, which decreased by 1.2 %, 8.3% and 61.3% YoY, respectively, from higher retail prices. However, GSH91 demand still increased by 10.5% YoY Outlook for 2024 • Gasoline consumption is expected to increase by 0.1% YoY, which is mainly supported by the higher travel mobility from improving economy, which Ministry of Finance (MOF) forecasted that GDP Thailand will be expanded by 2.7 % in 2024 (compared to 2023 at 1.9%). In addition, MOF forecasted that Private Consumption Index (PCI) will be increased by 4.6 % in 2024. However, If comparing gasoline demand in 9 M’24 to 9M’19 (pre-covid level), the demand was still lower by around 2.4%. Thus, there is still room to improve gasoline demand in 2024. Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand MML/Day MML/Day Source: DOEB, MOF (As of Nov 2024) 31.9 31.5 30.7 31.8 30.4 31.8 30.6 31.9 30.4 0 10 20 30 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 2023 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2022 2023 2024 ULG95 GSH 91 (E10) GSH 95 (E10) GSH E20 GSH E85 Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products 71
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-72- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products JET-A1 Demand and Number of Flights JET Demand Highlight • In 9M’24, Jet consumption increased by 16.9% YoY. The demand was supported by the expansion of flight movements, which increased by 13.3% compared to the same period of last year. In addition, according to Ministry of Tourism & Sports, the tourist numbers in 9M’24 was at 26.1 million people, increased by 68.8% compared to the same period of last year, and international tourists mainly coming form China, Malaysia and India. Thailand JET Demand Source: DOEB, TAT (As of Nov 2024) MML/Day MML/MTHFlights 16.5 17.4 17.0 15.9 14.7 14.2 15.3 15.5 14.8 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 2019 2023 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Number of Flights (LHS) JP 1 Demand (RHS) Outlook for 2024 • Jet demand growth is expected to be increased by 18.0% YoY. Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects tourist numbers in 2024 will be around 36 million people, increased by 28% YoY, but still lower then pre-covid 2019 by around 10% that has around 40 million people. Moreover, visa -free policy to several nations including China, Kazakhstan, Russia, India, etc. will encourage tourism and further economic growth. 72
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-73- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand MML/Day KT/Day Gasoil Demand Highlight • In 9M’24, Gasoil demand slightly decreased by 0.7% YoY, primarily due to a 92.8% drop in demand from power sector, which was around 2.4 MML/Day in 9M’23. However, when excluding demand from the power sector, gasoil demand increased by 2.9% YoY, reflecting a slight improvement in transport sector (economic activity) and the government’s capped of retail prices through the oil fuel fund. Source : EPPO, DOEB (As of Nov 2024) NGV Demand Highlight • In 9M’24, NGV demand decreased by 16.6% YoY, from price increases over the past couple of years and a reduction in the number of NGV stations. Despite these challenges, PTT continues to support the market by maintaining the NGV price at 14.62 baht/kg for taxis (Jan- Jun’24) and 15.59 baht/kg (Jul’24- present). Meanwhile, the current price for other vehicles stands at 17.90 baht/kg (Oct-Nov’24), reduced from the previous 19.59 baht/kg due to a price drop. Beyond this period, the price for vehicles will be determined by the prevailing market price structure. Outlook for 2024 • Gasoil demand is expected to increase slightly by 0.1% YoY (including power sector) and by 2.8% when excluding, supported by the government’s approved budget and stimulus measures aimed at boosting economic growth. However, demand remains under pressure from both global and domestic economic slowdowns, particularly due to domestic household debt. 69.0 70.7 72.7 70.7 70.4 66.5 66.5 66.3 62.8 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 2023 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 2023 *Exclude Marine Gasoil 73
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-74- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • In 9M’24, Fuel Oil consumption dropped by 13.5% YoY, mainly due to absence demand from the power sector, which consumed 0.5 MML/day in 9M’23. Even excluding the power sector, demand still declined by 4.8% YoY. Consumption in the industrial sector decreased by 11.7%. However, demand in transportation sector, which accounted for 65.1% of the total fuel oil consumption, slightly increased by 0.6% YoY, due to slightly improvement in exports. Additionally, environmental regulations banning fuels that harm the environment, and price competition in both domestic and abroad markets, were other key factors affecting demand. Source : DOEB (As of Nov 2024) 5.2 5.5 5.0 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.4 0 2 4 6 8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 2023 Outlook for 2024 • Fuel Oil demand is projected to decrease by 8.2% YoY, primarily due to declining consumption in the power plants and industrial sectors. However, when excluding power sector demand, expected to decreased by 1.5% supported by an improvement in Thailand’s export volume. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2022 2023 2024 Transportation Industry Electricity Others MML/Day MML/Day 74
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Empowering Human Life Through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976