There he is. We're now going to turn to another public company, Air Lease Corporation. So another gentleman who requires absolutely no introduction, Mr. Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman of the Board of Air Lease Corporation. I've mentioned this several times in the past, but not only an industry leader, a founder of the aircraft leasing industry, but also a man of extraordinary generosity. So the next time you're down in D.C., take a car ride or a metro, head on out to Dulles Airport, and visit the Steven Udvar-Hazy Center, financed in large part by a very generous gift from the gentleman to my right. So thank you, Steven, and let's turn to your presentation and talk about airplanes. Thanks, Doug, for the very, humbling introduction. It's a pleasure to be here. We appreciate Deutsche Bank and your team have created this conference, has been so successful, and we also appreciate the support of Deutsche Bank since the inception of Air Lease in 2010, which was Act Two to ILFC. So let me just briefly give you a little overview on Air Lease. We're a $50 billion aircraft leasing platform. We have about $30 billion of assets as of June 30. $23 billion of aircraft on order. A total of 887 aircraft owned, managed, and on order. We have almost $30 billion of committed rental cash flows on our existing portfolio. We have $7.6 billion of liquidity available to us to overcome any speed bumps along the way. We have over $28 billion of unencumbered assets, meaning aircraft assets that have no security or mortgages. And we have generated about 11.2% adjusted pre-tax ROE. We have a young fleet, average age of about 4.5 years. Remaining lease term, however, is usually around between 7.2-7.5 years. We have 100% of our aircraft on order with Boeing and Airbus, leased out for 2023 and 2024. And in the next few months, all of our 2025 deliveries will be leased out at significantly higher lease rates than what we could have gotten two or three years ago. So the business is going very well. We have a clean balance sheet, more than 99% unencumbered assets, and 91% of our debt is fixed rate, so we're not really subject to short-term interest rate volatility. We have strong credit ratings, BBB from S&P, Fitch BBB, and Kroll A-. So just to give you a sense of the ALC value proposition, we try to maximize returns and minimize residual value risk. As Gus mentioned, we're also pretty aggressive right now in aircraft sales, and we tend to sell our oldest, least attractive aircraft that still have some lease life left on them. So generally, we buy new aircraft assets from Boeing and Airbus directly, close to 100 aircraft a year. We hold assets for the first third of their life. These are 25-year assets, so generally, we hold, on the average, these airplanes for between seven to 10 years, then we sell them and reinvest the capital. Since our inception, we've acquired more than $40 billion of new aircraft. We've generated more than $12 billion of operating cash flow, $6 billion in aircraft sales, used aircraft sales, and we've returned more than $700 million to shareholders in the form of dividends. Every year in the last seven years, we've increased our quarterly dividends to our common shareholders. We've also had a few, share buybacks. However, since the Russian seizure of our aircraft, we stopped the share buybacks until we have full settlements, and recoveries on our various claims, which amount to about $800 million. We tend to purchase aircraft in large quantities with significant discounts from the OEMs. This team has purchased more than 3,000 jet aircraft since 1977, brand-new aircraft. So, we have bought more new aircraft than any other airline or leasing company in the last 35 years. We're currently benefiting from the strong leasing environment, which has been created by the accelerating passenger traffic recovery. First, it exhibited itself in North America, Mexico, Canada, and then in Europe, and now has really spread its wings throughout the world. Obviously, we watch China very closely, although our total exposure there in the last five years has declined from about 20% of our total fleet in China-... to now around 7%, and we're in the process of selling a number of our Chinese assets to other Chinese leasing companies. So we're targeting about 4%-5% of total portfolio being in China. 2023 passenger numbers are 47% up. We have seen almost 1,900 new orders this year, for new passenger aircraft coming from all over the world, but with a strong emphasis in India and the Middle East. Airbus and Boeing are both practically sold out through the end of the decade. There's only a handful of positions available in 2029. And lease demand has been increasing. It's now, as Gus said, more than 50% of the value of all aircraft in commercial airline service are leased. Narrow-body demand is very robust, and wide-body demand is accelerating. The valley was much deeper on wide bodies in the second half of 2020, 2021, and early last year, but we're seeing very strong recovery. The strongest trend has been on the North Atlantic. There was tremendous pent-up demand from both the U.S. going to Europe and from Canada to Europe, as well as from Europe back to the U.S. As you remember, we had all sorts of travel restrictions where U.S. passport holders couldn't go to Europe and vice versa. But that demand has exceeded our expectations. And I think for a number of our customers in Europe, the large flag carriers, they're telling us that this summer will be their most profitable summer ever on the North Atlantic. And it's not just the passenger demand, it's also yields. For example, Virgin Atlantic, which is 49% owned by Delta, has had an 83% increase in yields on the North Atlantic, both in economy, premium economy, and business class. Emirates, 45% increase. China Airlines in Taiwan, with the recovery of travel to China, Korea, and Southeast Asia, triple-digit increases in yield. So this is really unprecedented, and that's driving the profitability of these airlines. It gives them more confidence. They're generating more cash. They need more airplanes, both for growth and retirement. There's a substantial number of wide-body aircraft that will hit 25 years of age in the next three or four years, and those will have to be replaced mainly by 787s, A350s, A330neos, and we'll see what happens with the 777-9s. Currently, our order book is pretty substantial. With respect to Boeing and Airbus products, it is the largest of any lessor. We have 69 A220s on order, and we have done extremely well, particularly in Europe, in Central and Eastern Europe. We've done deals, you know, in Italy, and Croatia, and Czech Republic, and Bulgaria, where these aircraft are replacing A319s and older A320s. So it's been a very robust aircraft for us. A321 LRs, XLRs. Air Lease is the launch customer for the A321LR. We launched that program after beating Airbus on the head for years, and we also launched the XLR program because we felt there was no viable 757 replacement or no twin-engine single-aisle aircraft that could fly eight-hour legs. So we have 163 aircraft on order, and, in that category, and of those, only four are A320s and 159 are A321s. So that tells you where the demand is for the larger gauge aircraft. 737 MAXes, we have Dash 8s and Dash 9s, 87 on order, and we'll probably wind up with about 200 of those by the end of 2026. A330neos, we have nine, 787s, we have still 20 yet to deliver. We're patiently waiting for deliveries that should have been in 2020 and 2021 that still haven't delivered. A350s, we have a total of 11 aircraft on order, and that's, that's been a good program for us. The engines on the A350-900, particularly the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84 has been a pretty good engine. It's been sort of an outlier. Key macro themes for the remainder of this year, passenger traffic is growing. It's driving aircraft demand. OEM production outlook, I don't have to tell you, that's a real problem area. And in fact, that's fueling more demand and is driving lease rates higher. Both Airbus and Boeing appear to miss their estimates on production rates and deliveries consistently. There's a lot of apologies that we get. You know, they blame everyone from suppliers, to COVID, to labor shortages, anyone else they can point the finger at. But the problem is, they're the ones that have selected those suppliers. It's their labor, it's their selected avionics manufacturers, it's their engine choices. So, they have to look in the mirror and see where the fundamental problem really comes out of. Elevated interest rates, even though there's a little bit of a lag between interest rates and lease rates, they are somewhat parallel, and they are driving up lease rates, particularly for new aircraft. And as Gus mentioned, used aircraft, good used aircraft, like 737-800s, A320s, younger A330s, we have seen lease rate increases as much as 30%-40% in the last 12-15 months. And that pretty well covers the major themes, and I think it'd be best to just turn this over to Q&A, because I'm sure all of you have interesting questions. Great. Public company, so I'll turn it over to Hillary to ask the first few questions. Sure. So Steve, you mentioned you're looking to sell, you know, some of your Chinese exposure to China. Recently, CALC sold their, you know, order book of- Yeah. Yeah, to of MAX. Are you seeing that when you're trying to market your, you know, the portfolio? Are you seeing that the Chinese lessors are kind of, you know, they don't wanna take the MAX? Or do you think it was specific to the MAX, or, you know, do you have any comment related to that transaction? No, I mean, as you know, after the first accident in Indonesia, the Lion Air accident, China was the first one to ground 737 MAX 8. And among all countries where there were 737 MAXs in operation, that were certified in those respective countries throughout the world, China was the last one to reluctantly allow the airplanes to go back into service. Now, most of the 737 MAXs that were delivered before the Ethiopian crash, the second crash, are now back in service. But Boeing has a big parking lot of 737 MAXs that are still not delivered to China. And I think a lot of that has to do with political frustrations from both sides, where we accuse China of various sins, and they accuse us of sins. And so in kind of a perverse way, the 737 MAX has become a victim of that political football, whereas Airbus deliveries continue. I think over time, the pressure from the Chinese airlines to be able to import and operate these aircraft that they've ordered will intensify. I think step by step, I think the Chinese government will let them take deliveries in kind of a, in a quiet way, without a lot of noise. But the U.S. does have a lot of leverage because the COMAC C919, which is sort of the Chinese copycat of an A320, is powered by the same engine that powers the MAX and the A320, A321neo. So, it's a CFM LEAP engine. So the U.S. could turn that switch off, and that would cripple the Chinese commercial aspirations of becoming a major aircraft supplier. So let's just hope the tensions cool down, and commercial aircraft are not the victims of these rivalries. Let me interject with a question about ESG and sustainability in particular. Excuse me. We had a very thoughtful panel yesterday discussing the subject. A number of lessors have brought it up today from various angles. You're obviously an aviation aircraft expert. I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit about maybe the realities of the situation. I think there's a situation where large parts of the, call it, real world, outside of the aviation world, imagine electric airplanes, hydrogen airplanes, quickly filling the sky, solving the problems. We all live happily ever after and still have our $150 fares to Disney World. What are your views there in terms of what the industry can do, should do, will do? There's a big- Can do. There's a big gap between dreaming and reality. What's kind of interesting is that, you know, this movement became, let's say, very strong in Western Europe. And the problem that I see is that aviation, really commercial airlines, are the easy target. First it was noise and difficulty at expanding airports, because whoever decides to live near an airport should know it's gonna be noisy, so they should buy real estate somewhere else. And then secondly, came the pollution, the emissions, the destroying the ozone layer, and we are the culprits of the world. We are destroying our planet. That's, that's the proclamation of these, ultra environmentalists and politicians that need some kind of a spoken message to their, their constituents. The problem is that technology can only progress so fast. The current physics of jet engines is very, very close to its ultimate limits in terms of fuel consumption. I really cannot see much more than a 10%-15% further improvement using jet engines, even by enlarging the fans, introducing new alloys and new ways of reducing fuel burn. So everybody's looking at either electric situations or hydrogen or hybrid, and $ billions will be invested, and only a small proportion of that money will actually find the proper solution. Initially, the electrification has to be on small aircraft, because batteries are not sufficiently capable of flying a long-haul aircraft from New York to London. So we're gonna see a lot of eVTOL, we're gonna see a lot of small planes, maybe some small commuter aircraft that will be electrified. Hydrogen, the problem is storage and logistical transition to airports, so getting the right kind of fuel to the right place is a huge investment that nobody wants to make. Unless governments step up and subsidize those like they do solar panels, I don't see that the airline industry is gonna raise their arm and say, "Okay, we'll pay for all that." So look, these technologies will evolve. The politicians will have to tone down their rhetoric because we are only a very small offender in the jungle. There's a lot of other industries, whether it's in agriculture, mining. Our Chinese friends and Indian friends are probably the biggest offenders in generating the kind of stuff we don't want in the air. So I think we need to redirect our animosity toward other industries that are causing a lot more damage to our environment than the aviation industry. But I think it's an unstoppable trend, but we're not gonna see electric or hydrogen airplanes in the next 10 years flying large volumes of passengers. Just 20 years? I'd say between 20 and 30. Okay. You made an interesting aside comment on the 777X, an airplane that had its first test flight or first flight in January 2020. 6 airplanes going through some form of testing, if you can call it that. Another 65 built. Your comment was, I think, "We will see." You've ordered the A350F. There's a very capable, seemingly competing product, the 777-9—excuse me, 777-8F. What's your thinking on that airplane and the top end of the market in general for very large airplanes? Look, I'm a big fan of the 777. Between ILFC and Air Lease, we ordered more than 110 777-200 ERs, 300 ERs. So it's been a great airplane. It's still a workhorse on a lot of long-haul flying. In fact, a lot of 777-300 ERs have replaced A380 flying. The problem I have is we are an investor in aircraft assets, and you guys give us money, both equity and debt, to make sure that we deploy those funds in the best assets. So to give you an example, if we take a 12-year-old A380, okay? It's worth less today than a 12-year-old A320 that costs one-sixth of the A380. So where do you want to put your money? The problem we have with the 777X is it does not really offer a significant improvement in the, in the passenger, per passenger kilometer or passenger mile, a cost of operation when you include capital costs. So if you add up maintenance costs, crew, fuel, landing fees, because it's a heavier airplane, it just does not offer a meaningful improvement over the current, aircraft that are available. In fact, our analysis shows that a 787-10 high growth rate airplane has a lower seat mile cost than a 777X-9. So yes, there's a huge replacement market coming up, and I'm sure Boeing eventually will overcome their obstacles, with the FAA and EASA and get the airplane certified. But it's a very expensive airplane that's inching close to $200 million acquisition cost. The number of users right now is very limited. There's been very few new orders in the last five years, and we'll just have to see how it evolves and whether it can establish a large customer base. Until that's done, I don't think any leasing company is gonna touch it. On the passenger side. On the passenger side, yeah. Okay. I'm just talking about the passenger. So Boeing has sort of redirected some of their resources toward the cargo airplane, and they are making headway on that. But the volumes, the number of units, do not even come close to the overall passenger demand. So I'd say for a lessor like us, it's premature to look at ordering 777Xs when we can develop nice returns on A350, 787 -9s and 10s.... Questions from the audience? Betsy? Betsy, oh, she's looking for a microphone. Yeah, she wants to be heard. You mentioned that you're seeing lease rates up 30%-40% over the last 12 months? On the used aircraft, good used aircraft. Is that on lease renewals or because, you know, typically it's, it's good to have long-term leases, but in this environment, you're kind of stuck with these lease rates for a long time, even in with rising interest rates? Yeah. What I was talking about is, let's say we have a 737-800 that was on an eight-year lease, and it's coming off lease. The airline that currently has it wants to extend it, but I've got five other airlines that want that airplane because they need lift. So ultimately, it comes down to the best overall solution. Do we extend with the existing airline at a 20% increase in lease rates and not have the downtime for 45 or 60 days of transitioning into another airline that would be willing to pay 35% more than the current lease rates? So these are at lease expirations that you're seeing? Yes. Yeah, we're not seeing any repossessions right now because very few airlines are going under temporarily. Okay, thanks. A quick final aircraft question. You highlighted the upgauging that you're seeing, on the narrow bodies, highlighting your launch order for the LR and the XLR. You have lots of MAX 8s, a handful of MAX 9s. A little bit surprising given the limited operator base, but does your upgauging argument eventually translate to the MAX 10? There are about 1,000 now on order. Eventually, it does EIS enter commercial service. What's your view there? Is it starting to change a bit? Well, first, Boeing has to certify the 737 MAX 7. Yep. Which is a lot easier because it's really just a basic derivative of the MAX 8. On the MAX 9, we've had great success with that airplane. It offers another 10%-12% more seats at only maybe a 3% or 4% higher operating cost. So we have customers like Alaska Airlines, Aeroméxico, and others, that look at that as a very profitable aircraft, quite comparable to A321 economics. MAX 10, we have always had reservations about that airplane, and the program has been delayed, and delayed, and delayed. We don't believe that the current engine, the CFM LEAP engine, was ever designed to be operated at the 28,000-pound thrust regime, for most of its life. That's going to reduce the number of hours and cycles that can stay on the wing, and we'll just have to watch what happens. But there are a lot of MAX 10 orders. The program is significantly delayed. It's way over budget, and there's still issues at EASA and with the regulators on getting the airplane certified. So it has not been an easy run for Boeing. It's been a very frustrating experience for Boeing to get that airplane going, and I can't really sit here and predict when it's going to be certified. I guess the good news for Boeing is orders have just about crossed 1,000, and several very large, sophisticated, smart customers have made pretty substantial investments. So as you say, we'll see. I'd like to see what the residual value of a MAX 10 is 10 years from now versus MAX 8. How about versus the MAX 9? MAX 9 is doing great. I'll take the MAX 10. I could talk about airplanes forever. Everybody has lots of questions as well, but we do have, in baseball terms, still a murderer's row. That's a good term in baseball terms of people up on deck to speak. So, Steven Udvar-Házy, thank you very much for the presentation. Thank you. Thank you very much for everything. And as again, I'll say it again, thank you very much for your generosity. My, my kids still look back at the museum visit and smile, as do I. Thank you, Doug. Thank you. Thank you very much.
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