We're live. Thank you for joining me today. You have been on one of these presentations before. This is the Bank of America Securities 2021 Virtual Insurance Conference. It's my first one, and we've had now 4 different meetings, and we have our fifth here is Allstate. We are honored to have CEO Tom Wilson presenting. I think I'm estimating that Tom has been Allstate leadership probably as long as I've been in this business, about 25 years. I think even CEO for about 15 years now, roughly. I'm guessing that's about right. Tom's going to do a presentation, and then we'll come back for Q&A afterwards. Please email me your questions. If you're on the Veracast system, you can type it in and send it to me, and I'll get it. You can also send one through email, it's really easy if you use the web browser. Tom, please start, we're really happy to have you. Thank you, Josh. It goes by quickly, that's for sure. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the time to figure out why Allstate is such a good investment. Let me begin on slide one with a reminder that I'll be using some forward-looking statements and for reference of non-GAAP measures. You just have to consider those in the context of all the information we give you, which is pretty extensive if you go to our website at allstateinvestors.com. Allstate is a really unique investment opportunity. When you buy shares of Allstate, you get an exceptionally strong business that provides a really secure source of earnings and a cash return on your investment. You also get the capabilities and capital to drive transformative growth. Today, we have a low price-earnings ratio, which we believe indicates that the growth potential is not being fully valued in the market. Today, I'm going to focus mostly on the opportunities for growth. Let's begin. I want to begin with the. Just talk a little bit about Allstate's business model, our strategy, our 2020 performance, we'll lean into growth. If you go to slide two, what Allstate does is we empower customers by providing affordable, simple, and connected protection solutions. We do that with a diversified portfolio of businesses. We're, of course, well known for auto and home insurance, and we have about almost 34 million policies in force in that line of business, that's the bulk of our revenue. We also provide roadside assistance, car warranties, accident and health products, consumer protection plans for phones, computers, appliances, and furniture. That was added to the portfolio with the acquisition of SquareTrade in 2017. We recently entered the growing identity protection business with the acquisition of InfoArmor. We've built a leading telematics business, Arity, which is enabling us to outrun the Insurtech startups by leveraging our capabilities and our market presence. The total number of policies in force then are 176 million, which it just shows how ubiquitous the Allstate brand is becoming to protection. The breadth of our distribution really supports this expansive market reach. We're obviously in almost every local market in America and a pretty big presence in Canada with over 10,000 Allstate agents, who then also have about 24,000 people working for them on our stuff each and every day. That's what we're mostly known for. If you look at the breadth, we're also a top five company in the independent agent distribution channel with the acquisition of National General, which we just closed, and we have over 42,000 agent appointments. We have a large direct operation using our call centers in the web. We really built it on our Esurance platform. We sell protection plans through retailers all over the world, really, including some of the largest, which you can see on the slide here. We reach customers through over 50,000 work sites. What we have is this comprehensive portfolio of protection solutions that are broadly available, enabling us to leverage the Allstate brand, customer base, and business capabilities. If you go to slide three, our strategy has two components, increase personal property liability market share and expand the protection services we provide. We're going to increase market share in personal property liability by expanding the customer access, improving customer value, increasing our sophistication of marketing, and deploying a new technology ecosystem. I'm going to provide an update on some of those, and I'm sure Josh will dig in. He's well aware of what we're doing here. The growth of the property liability business and our market share there is really important to our overall results, obviously, but also our valuation. We're also expanding the protection services and increasing our total addressable market through the businesses in the bottom oval. Let's go to the next slide four. When we think about 2020, amidst the pandemic, we delivered attractive returns, we built higher growth business models, and made a lot of portfolio changes in our businesses, as you can see from the highlights on this slide. Net income was $5.5 billion. Adjusted net income was $4.6 billion for the full year. That represents a 19.8% return on equity, far in excess of most insurance companies and slightly above the S&P 500. We also made exceptional progress in expanding customer access by merging the Esurance and Allstate direct businesses and beginning to transform the Allstate agents to higher growth. Customer value was increased by improving the competitive position of auto insurance prices, and we did that by combining pricing sophistication. There's obviously a decline in auto accident frequency last year, which gave us some room to make some significant changes. We've made a big reduction in our cost last year and are continuing to reduce our cost. Personal property liability market share will increase by one percentage point in 2021 to 10% with the acquisition of National General, which we just closed. That's an acquisition that you see is very attractive financially as well. It's not a bad way to get customers. It also gives us a platform for growth in the independent agent channel as we expand the product breadth of that offering. We recently announced the sale of Allstate Life Insurance Company, which redeploys capital out of lower growth and returning businesses. At the same time as we were running the business through the pandemic, acquiring growth opportunities, repositioning the portfolio of businesses, and figuring how to drive more growth through the Allstate channel, we returned $2.4 billion to shareholders, in part by repurchasing about 5% of our outstanding shares. If you could move to slide five, let me discuss how we strengthened the Allstate brand property liability distribution in 2020. Some of the actions we took had an impact on near-term growth, a negative impact. They were really critical to create sustainable market share gains. The Allstate agent distribution channel was improved by focusing agents on growth by increasing new business incentives and lowering renewal commissions. If you exclude the declines that happened in March and April when basically the world shut down due to the pandemic, the Allstate brand new business through existing agents increased. We also stopped appointing new agents under the existing Allstate agent contract while we developed a lower cost and higher growth alternatives to have local agents with less real estate and more efficient service. The direct businesses was all transitioned under the Allstate brand. The Esurance brand advertising was discontinued, and those resources were shifted to the Allstate brand to compete more aggressively with GEICO and Progressive. We also lowered the price for directly sold business. Allstate brand business sold through our call centers and on the web has a lower price than that sold through the agents because customers don't get the benefit of the local agent. We believe you should pay for what you get. In total, that transition worked as the overall Allstate and Esurance policies in force have remained at prior year levels despite the pandemic and the transition in business model. You can see, let me walk you through some attribution on the bottom of the slide there. On the lower left is new business for the year. Just new business, doesn't include renewals. The red bar at the far left of the chart shows the estimated unfavorable impact of the pandemic on new business in March and April. You move to the right, you can see the impact of stopping new Allstate agent appointments. That was partially offset by an increase in existing EA production. That shows the viability of growing in the existing agent platform as the compensation was shifted to drive new growth. If you move to the center of the chart, the total direct channel increase compared to the prior year as the increase in the Allstate brand direct applications more than offset the decline in the Esurance brand. We anticipate continued growth in the direct channel as we optimize the web and the call center's capabilities. We have a relatively small number of independent agents that operate under the Allstate brand name. They had a small positive impact on overall growth. If you go to the lower right then, you can see that the total Allstate insurance policies in force remained at the same level as 2020 as we managed through this significant change of the operating model, and we did have a small decrease in retention levels at the end of the year. It didn't increase, but we feel good managing through that transition, and when you look at the attribution, you can see the green sprouts for growth, so to speak. If you go to slide six, I want to discuss the National General acquisition, which increases market share, as I said, by one percentage point in 2021 and improves our growth prospects. We closed this $4 billion acquisition. We closed in January. It's essentially a reverse merger. The National General team is joining Allstate, and they're consolidating our independent agent business into their platform. They have a better platform, they have better operations. They're just better in that channel than we were. The Encompass and Allstate independent agents are going to be consolidated into National General, and we'll operate under National General, an Allstate company. What this makes us is now we're a top five personal lines carrier in the IA channel, and we got much better capabilities. That channel, that serves, of course, about a third of the personal property liability business, which is a $125 billion addressable market. We expect additional growth in this channel, not just putting it together, lowering our costs, making some money that way, but by rolling out new standard auto and home insurance offerings starting later this year. Consistent with our past acquisitions, we always like to give you measures of success, and those are shown on the bottom of the slide. First, we expect the acquisition to be accretive with growing earnings, adding to both returns and profitability. Second, we expect to achieve the cost synergies by consolidating those three IA businesses into one, which will further improve our competitive position. Then thirdly, we're going to grow the IA channel policies in force by broadening the product offering. Let's go to slide seven and discuss protection services. That's the bottom oval. These businesses are significant in size and are becoming meaningful to our total corporate results. Protection services revenues, when you exclude the impact of realized gains and losses, increased 17% to $1.9 billion. Adjusted net income was $153 million in 2020, despite the fact we're investing heavily in growth, and it represents $150 million increase compared to 2019. The increase in revenue and profit is really being driven by continued success of Allstate Protection Plans. You can see in the bottom left or bottom right, sorry, the Allstate Protection Plans revenues are grown at 48% since it was acquired on a compounding growth rate. The business also generated $137 million for adjusted net income. At the same time, they're expanding their total addressable market. We've expanded into furniture. We just launched The Home Depot and appliances with some new offerings there. We're obviously big in consumer electronics, tablets, and cell phones. We're expanding internationally there. We have good potential growth in the future coming out of that business as well. If you go to slide eight, let's discuss how you do all this. You have to innovate on both customer value and to get growth. Allstate has an industry-leading telematics solutions, and it's really been a great 10-year run for us. We created this business outside the insurance company. It could be the telematics provider for Allstate, but also for third parties so we could leverage those capabilities to make more money off other people. Arity's access to third-party information, along with the Allstate specific data, is really a competitive advantage. We now have over 410 billion miles of data collected with over 27 million active connections, and we're scoring over 1.3 billion trips per month. As far in excess of anybody else that I know, at least at this point. We have advanced analytics, we use insurance claims data, and we're creating proprietary driving scores that accurately price each individual risk. Those industry-leading telematics capabilities improve the customer value proposition for Allstate's customer base for Arity's partnerships. You might have seen something right now we just put out today that we're starting to show miles driven on a much more frequent basis than the United States Department of Transportation, and ride-sharing companies. Innovation has also expanded its telematics products for Allstate customers with Drivewise and Milewise. We are the only company, only big insurer, really offering a pay per mile auto insurance product, which is really attractive to customers today because they're not driving much. They're like, "Why should I pay X amount for six months? I can just pay you by the mile." We're having good success selling that. At the same time, we're digitizing processes throughout the organization. We're believed one of the leaders in using digital processes to resolve claims, which includes QuickFoto Claim, Virtual Assist, aerial imagery for property inspections. That does a couple things. It lowers costs. It also improves your effectiveness. You can be back to your customers much more effectively, and we're starting to be able to use digital data to really resolve a claim in a more precise way. We also have a strong track record of innovative solutions in just property casualty features like Accident Forgiveness, New Car Replacement. Those have all been copied by our competitors, we were in the market well before them. We recently launched the Allstate Digital Footprint that shows you how many people have your data and are collecting your data, so it helps expand our identity protection offering. Allstate Protection Plans just introduced a two-day appliance guarantee with The Home Depot. The point of this is that our innovation extends through all parts of our business, including data and analytics. The message is, we're always investing to get better. Let's move to slide eight. Before we move to the dialogue, send your questions on to Josh, let me just summarize the story here. The transition to higher growth business models is being successfully implemented. We have the brand market position, we have great resources, unbelievable capabilities, a strategy which should deliver results for shareholders. We have the extensive Allstate agent platform that really will deliver more value per dollar for customers that want to buy from a local person than our competitors. We have a direct insurance business that's utilizing the Allstate brand starting late last year. Got good competitive prices, broad product offerings. We have an independent agent business that's got national distribution and a strong position in non-standard auto today, but we expect to expand that into standard auto and homeowners. Our protection services businesses have a lot of growth opportunities. When you look at our valuation, we believe it's attractive to peers and doesn't fully reflect our growth trajectory. With that, Josh, let's go wherever you'd like to go. All right, very good. Thank you, Tom. A couple of years ago, maybe it was 18 months ago or so, or two years ago, I can't remember, you changed guidance for the company. You used to give general guidance around a range of underlying combined ratio, and then you switched to giving ROE guidance, and the guidance was, 14%-17% ROE for the business. First of all, why the switch in terms of how you present ROE? Two, with the National General acquisition, and the closing of the life block sale- Right You said that your ROE is going to go up by about 100 basis points. Yet the guide is still 14%-17%. When I asked you on the conference call, you said 14%-17% isn't a ceiling. Can you sort of talk a little about all those things? About how much we should expect Allstate to earn? Why change how we think about Allstate's guidance and you can sort of give me your thoughts on all those sort of items. Sure. To start with the beginning. We moved off underlying combined ratio because it was just too small a part of the story. If we think about our results, underlying combined ratio, of course, our combined ratio and p roperty-liability, but it excludes catastrophes. It also doesn't include investment income. It didn't include what we were making off the life business. It doesn't include what we're making in protection services. We said, we're really giving you one little piece of information. People liked it because they could hold us accountable to it, which was fine. We don't mind being held accountable to it, but it wasn't really telling the whole story. What it was doing was driving all of our conversation to what are you making in property-liability, not how is your investments doing, how are you doing on overall results. ROE, of course, is the broadest measure you can get, we thought that was a better measure of what we could deliver to shareholders. We do think it's good governance to tell you, "Here's what we think we're going to do, so you can come back to it." That said, it's not really used as an annual earnings guidance. We said, it's going to vary from year to year. We said, in the 14%-17% range, we'll be far above almost all insurance companies, well above the commercial carriers, well above the mutual companies. The only person that's below would be Progressive. They have a little more leverage, they weren't carrying the life business that we're carrying. We thought, this is a good return. If we can grow and generate 14%-17% returns on equity, the stock should have good value, it should actually be revalued when we go there. Some people have asked, including you, Josh: "Okay, well, when you said you were buying National General, it increased return on equity by 100 basis points." We believe that's still true. When you sell the life businesses, those go away later this year, that should increase returns by another 100 basis points, why wouldn't you raise it? We don't really see it as an annual guidance kind of thing, you can then say, oh, well. That's why I said on the call, it might be higher than 17. It's not like it's a bad thing for us. When we say, what can we really think we can deliver in this industry, grow rapidly, you get not only high ROEs, but high growth potential on a sustainable basis, we thought we could get there. It isn't really about the annual target. It may be above or below 17. It's almost like if you thought about Progressive, they already say, they're going to grow as fast as they can below 96. Well, they're below 96, at least on auto. They're obviously losing money on homeowners. They say, as long as we can keep growing below 96, we'll keep doing that. If they actually went to 96, I don't think people would be very happy. Their point is, you can't manage it every year in this business. It goes up and down, this is us saying we can earn really good returns on equity, we can grow the business. If I think about longer term, it's hard to know what policy count is for this, but we know premiums. I estimate that the top four carriers, you among them in auto, control about 63% of the auto market share in the U.S. This year, certainly GEICO and Progressive have been growing fairly quickly over the last few years. I expect that the top four carriers' share is going to continue to grow over time, including yourself. When I look at the homeowners market, the top four carriers probably combined for maybe 39%, 40% of the market. There's two questions in here. One is, should we expect the market share for the auto insurance marketplace to continue to consolidate with Allstate being one of the winners in that consolidation? Two, is there something different going on in homeowners because of catastrophe risk that the homeowners market might be fragmented in perpetuity while the auto market consolidates? Let me go way up, and I'll swoop down to both auto and home insurance. As I mentioned, our strategy, I'd like to protect everything you got. I want to protect your cell phone, your car, your house, your identity. Whatever you got, we'd like to protect you. We think about market share as really doing in all those different ways. You're right in the auto business, I won't say it's concentrated. It may not be consolidated yet. Certainly, market share really helps you, for a variety of reasons. It's not a panacea, but it certainly helps you. Higher market share, more volume allows you to spread the cost of technology, lets you spread advertising base. Advertising has gotten to be a big game, right? If you're not spending $1 billion a year in advertising, you're going to have a hard time competing these days, to really drive customers to you. Obviously, the increased amounts of data, as you know well, really help you be more precise, both in pricing and in settling claims. That said, I don't think that we should ignore the smaller, more innovative companies. Some of them have new good things they're trying to do. I don't know that I think they're going to knock us off our pedestal because what we do is say, "Hey, if it's a good thing, we'll do it, too. In fact, we got some better ways to do it." A good strategy is both think about your size and scale, but also paying attention to those people who are finding the holes in the market and how do you advance. I think the people in the middle, Josh, are going to have trouble. Some of these are public companies. Some of these are mutuals. The public companies will probably bail sooner than the mutuals will because the mutuals don't have a kind of oversight that you get from being a public company. They can just continue on their way. If you're not leaning into telematics, you're not going to be in the business for very long, at least on a profitable basis. If you're not leaning into advertising, if you're not innovating and figuring out how to use digital technology to do your business more effectively, the medium-sized companies are going to have a harder time doing that than the big companies. That said, there'll be people that develop services that help them do well, and that's why we turned to Arity, Luce, on third-party suites. We have some farm bureaus and other companies that are using Arity's help to get into the telematics business. We're okay with that, because we think we can win in our space, and we still have nine of 10 customers we could get in the auto space. We're not opposed to making some money off people who are serving some of the other nine out of 10. Homeowners is a different animal. It was consolidated because it was so volatile. They're big catastrophe losses. It's harder to resolve those claims than it is auto in terms of they're more complex. You're right that there's only a few big players there. State Farm, us. Farmers, again, a decent size. Travelers is smaller, but they got a decent business. Progressive, of course, has gotten into the market. We took that business, we repositioned it, could be eight or nine years, maybe even 10 years ago now, to where the business used to be in a catastrophe year, you lost money, in a good year, you made money, but on average, you didn't really make much. We repositioned our business, so in a catastrophe year, we still make money. Our underlying combined ratio has to be in the low 60s to do that. In a low catastrophe year, we make a lot of money. Not all of our competitors are doing that. Progressive's been losing money for three years in a row. It's a capital hog. This business, because of the volatility, needs more capital than the auto insurance. I think we'll see more competition there as Progressive and GEICO does some brokering. That said, we're really well-positioned, we've made $4 billion off that business underwriting from the last five years. We feel really good about our position there. We think with what we're doing with direct, we can continue to grow it. That is a business that we grew last year in units under the Allstate brand. I'm going to go a little out of order because we do have a couple questions from the 90 people who are listening to the call. There's. Sure. Jump around a little bit, Tom. Yeah, go ahead. How much was the retention drop due to the payment deferral program, and how much should that impact the retention ratio going forward? It's a good question, and the answer is, depending how you do attribution, it was either most of it or some of it. I tend to lean into the it was some of it, because I don't want to get confused in that we always have to do a good job for our customers. If your retention goes down a little bit, you got to take it seriously. I'm not freaked out about it. I'm not concerned about it. I'm just paying attention. The genesis that the question is around is last year when frequency went down so much and we ended up in the pandemic, we led in doing a shelter in place payback, giving our customers almost $950 million back. We also did things like extend payment terms, and you didn't have to pay us, and people took advantage of that. We ended those in the fourth quarter, and we said, "Okay. Hey, you owe us our money back." Some people said, "Well, we don't have any money, so we're leaving or don't need insurance," whatever. That did cause a drop in retention. When you do the attribution, it was pretty significant, which is why we called it out in earnings. That said, the market's pretty competitive, and I think you always need to pay attention to your retention levels. I don't think there's some secular thing that we're doing wrong, and it's going to drive our retention down. You always need to be doing a better job for your customers. All right. Question number 2 here is how is Allstate thinking about ESG, especially as it relates to insuring areas that appear to be increasingly exposed to shifting weather patterns? Well, ESG, of course, is this wide, almost amorphous kind of description of what it is. I'm going to take the question really as climate change. If you want to go somewhere else with it, just send Josh a follow-up on it. On climate change, we've been active in climate two decades, because it has a huge impact on our business. Obviously, the homeowners business, as you mentioned, and as well as the auto business to a certain extent, because precipitation leads to more car accidents. Flooding obviously washes out cars. We've been active in it for a long period of time. The first thing we did was take care of our own business, we used to have a homeowners business that had over 8 million policies in force. We reduced that by about 2 million. That cost us some auto growth, that is when you look at our growth over a period of time, you can see that that really hurt us in auto growth. That said, it was the right thing to do because we had too big a share in Florida, which of course sticks out into the ocean like a thumb. We had too big a share in California. We had to reduce ourselves in New York, particularly east of Sunrise Highway. So we went about reducing our Profile. Second thing we did is we basically divested ourselves of some catastrophe risk. We have a giant reinsurance program. We got to be one of the biggest buyers of catastrophe reinsurance for residential property in the world, really. We have a very extensive property reinsurance because we said, we like the slip and fall, the drive through your garage door, the kitchen fire business. It's very predictable in terms of the overall frequency and severity. We don't really like having big exposure to force for hurricanes or large tornadoes. We bought a bunch of reinsurance. The third thing we did was really change our underwriting practices, our inspection practices, then our policies. We now age rate roofs and things like that because that's the thing that gets mostly exposed to the impacts of climate change, which is more severe weather. At the same time, we raised our pricing over a relatively short period of time. I don't remember the exact number of years now, but we raised our prices by about 30%. We took that business. They have a combined ratio, underlying combined ratio, that's combined ratio minus catastrophes, in the low 60s. Really good business today. The first thing we said is, "Okay, climate change, more severe weather. It's here to change. We're going to fix it." We started that really in about 2005. We're in a really good position up in the business. Second thing we said is, "Okay, we got to take care of our customers, how do we help them?" We try to get building laws changed in terms of the kind of nails and things people use. We've helped put up state-based programs like California Earthquake Authority, we helped fund and start. It was one of the first things I did when I got here. We did Florida Windstorm, a pool we helped fund. We use those so that people who are not insurable, we can get them into the pools, or we broker well over $1 billion of homeowners insurance business to other people who want the risks that we don't want, so we can still take care of our customers. We were unsuccessful in getting the federal government to do anything really different about flood or for large hurricanes or catastrophes, trying to get some sort of federal program. We've been active in climate change. We're going to stay active in sort of the remediation of climate change as opposed to fighting on the genesis of the climate change. We're like, "It's real. It's here. Let's just figure out how we deal with what's here. Okay. Good answer. Obviously, you gave a slide about your new policy applications and explained why. There is some disruption going on with the integration of Encompass and National General. Obviously, the appointments of new agents is going on. You are trying to de-emphasize the, and fold in the Esurance brand into Allstate. To what extent should we expect policy count to trend, certainly, as a monoline auto policy count to trend negative, especially amidst a lot of your competitors cutting pricing? How long is this period of transition going to last? First, if you look at 2021, auto policies and premiums will go up substantially. We will pick up a point of market share. You could say, "Okay, that is because you bought it." We did buy it, but you can buy it either by buying a company which is accretive to earnings and ROE and helps you lower your cost, or you can buy it by going out and advertising and getting it. It is a point of real economic or real growth in market share that our shareholders paid for it. They just did not pay through it through a $4 billion advertising program. We paid for it by buying a company for $4 billion, which brings some other stuff with it. We do think that absent that, we still should be growing our business. It is unclear how we ever put a number out, Josh, as to how big we are going to make it. Let me just talk about some of the trends. The direct business should keep growing. On that bar chart, the amount under the Allstate brand should go up even more, and offset that which we reduced by not advertising the Esurance brand. Although you can still buy some Esurance policies if you want. I think direct will still go up. The Allstate agent channel, as you saw, the existing agents went up, but we stopped doing new agents because it just was not economic. We looked at the commissions we paid and what we got out of it. We thought, we are propping up a system that is not long-term sustainable in terms of its real estate, the staffing requirements, the marketing requirements, which is where local agents spend most of the money. We said, "We have got to come up with a better way to help new people get into the business to drive growth." I do not think we will have that fixed this year. It will not hurt us on a year-over-year basis, but we have got a bunch of programs we are testing. Before we roll it out in terms of the multiple thousands of people, we want to make sure it actually works. The existing agents, it did grow last year. I would like more of them to grow this year. A year-over-year comparison is a little hard because we have the benefit of not having the ECP agents, those new ones, for about nine months. We do expect the existing agents to keep growing. We have some that really lean in and love this new business focus. There are others that really have not been growing. Their businesses have been getting smaller. Their businesses have been built around retention and the retention level. Customers don't want to pay that much for retention anymore. We're trying to help them. We obviously gave them incentive to grow, we took some money out of renewals and shifted it to incentive, new business incentive in 2020, and we've done that again this year. We think that will still grow. We're also trying to help them reduce their service costs by doing centralized service. We're going to try to change what we do in marketing for them, and we're looking at what we can do for them on real estate to hopefully lower their costs so that we can still serve our customers who want that local agent but don't want to pay as much as they pay today. We have to get more efficient to do it. The biggest thing is how do we get those people in the middle to embrace the new growth? I gave you both ends of the spectrum. Those people in the middle are a huge growth potential because over about 60% of people still want to buy from a local agent, and we want to sell it to them that way. If they don't want to buy it that way, they can buy direct from us. I do think direct will grow. I think they have the opportunity to grow there. The independent agent business, I've been really pleased with the feedback we've gotten from particularly the large independent agent companies. There's some groups that have significant amounts of business who have said to us that, "You should do more business with us." When we roll out homeowners and standard auto to the National General platform, which has been mostly non-standard auto, I think we'll start to get growth in that business second part of the year, and then I think that'll continue on. Three good ways. I think you'll expect some growth, which is inorganic this year, and then you should see the organic stuff start to pick up so that beyond 2021, we keep growing at a pretty good rate. You gave some interesting statistics around your telematics offerings and whatnot. You said 27 million connected devices. Just so I understand it a little bit, how does that compare to 22 million or 22.3 million auto policies? Is that downloaded on the phone, but the same user might be using two different phones? No. When you look at the number of auto policies that are either Drivewise or Milewise, it's in the millions. In single-digit millions. I don't think we give the number out anymore, but it's not even in double-digit millions yet because we really do that most on new business as opposed to going back to our existing customers, enrolling them into that model. That will start to change when we've just revised the Allstate app so that it's much easier to do it, you can do it on the app. The difference between the ones that are Drivewise and Milewise in the 27 million is we've embedded our SDK in a number of other apps. Life360, a number of other ones where we're pulling data from these other apps, and then we help those other apps do a good job for their customers. For example, Life360, we do crash detection. Life360 is an app where you can keep track of your kids and know where they're at. You can communicate with them as a family. We can say, "Hey, did you know that" We can do crash notification, we can do all kinds of other stuff. We can dispatch trucks to people. It's about using the telematics platform to do more than price insurance. We get that information, and that makes us really good pricer because we're getting massive amounts of data in to do that. The telematics platform is really, primarily, we built it and said, we put $hundreds of millions in this business, that there's little downside because it's going to help us be a lot better pricers in auto insurance, which we need to do anyway, and we need to be cutting edge on that. At the same time, we said, we can use this for a bunch of other people. We can help the farm bureaus, we can help some other people, we can help ridesharing companies. We're finding ways to utilize that data to find another source of revenue for it. The 27 million is basically the entire network. We have a different system. Some of the other competitors in this business are using it only with their customers. We're saying, no, we think it's a better platform to have We'd like to have even more than 27 million cars we're pulling data on. We're constantly talking about who do we embed our SDK with so we can get better, more timely data. I think that the INSU Acquisition Corp. II began trading under the name Metromile today. I was curious, they're going to put out statistics over time. Would you have any ability to tell us how many Milewise customers there are? We don't give that number out because Metromile or IAC is, I think they're in eight states. What I can tell you is that the percentage of our new business is double-digit percentages. We're advertising it, we're known for it, and we're pushing our lead, and continuing to expand in more and more markets with it, because we think it's a competitive advantage. We don't want to give that number out because I'm not that interested in having. Eventually, they'll get in the market, just like they copied New Car Replacement and Accident Forgiveness, those all got copied. This will get copied for sure. It's not like we ever patent on charge by the mile. That said, you got to be good at it, so we're continually get better at it. It's a really good offering. Metromile, it's had a couple of different lives. We've been in this business 10 years, we've seen them in two or three of them. I'm like, welcome to the market. We'll be happy to compete with them as we go forward. Here's a question from the audience, relates to all these things, it's embedded in telematics and UBI. It's about autonomous cars. What is the long-term outlook for the auto insurance industry if we expect a world with fewer claims because they're safer driving, because computers are better drivers than we are and more predictable, what does that mean for auto insurance long-term? We've been talking and working on this and doing math around it since 2014. We've been at it for six years. I would say our conclusion is the same now as it was then, the pace of change is a little slower than we thought it was going to be. Let me give you some background on that. Transportation system, it's going to change. If you look at personal transportation, cars, trucks, stuff like that, it's woefully inefficient. We've got $4 trillion in hardware. It costs us $2 trillion of direct costs to run it every year. It runs at about a third capacity at peak hours, which is 4 to 5 hours a day. The average family spends way too much with 1.9 cars per household. A 20% improvement in the cost structure would save hundreds of dollars a month. It's going to happen. That said, some of that will be through autonomous cars, which should enable you to improve productivity of cars because maybe ride-sharing becomes cheaper and people move around. Some will be that autonomous cars get in fewer accidents. Of course, fewer accidents, you charge less for insurance because there's less losses. What we did is we said, we're going to position to take advantage of this opportunity rather than have it negatively impact our business and feel like we're going out of business. In 2014, we used some scenario projections, came up with four different outlooks forward. The result is, actually, insurance premiums have gone up more than we projected, even in our most optimistic scenario. The reason for that is couple-fold. One is the cost of turning over that $4 trillion fleet is expensive. Who's going to go out and invest $4 trillion worth of autonomous cars on the street? Second, the technology's lagged a little. The biggest driver of that is the cost to repair cars has gone way up. Some of it's technology-driven because the autonomous vehicles have, at least in the 3 and 4, the autonomous vehicle levels, the sensors are more expensive, and they're in the bumpers and stuff like that. When you crash, your mirror gets ripped off, and that's $1,000 now. It used to be $300. It used to be $0.99 at one time. Now it's $300. Now it's like $1,800 because it's got some sensor in it. The cost of repairing the cars has gone up faster than the decline in the frequency of accidents. That's actually helped auto insurance premiums. I think there's another thing going on there, which is, I think the auto manufacturers are subtly shifting their business model, I'm not inside an auto manufacturer, this is me looking outside the store looking in. I think they decided to sell the razor at a low margin and make money on the blades. By that, I mean you can buy a car for almost what you paid for it five years ago. It might be up 2% a year, the cost to repair it is up about 8% a year. Some of that's because of the technology in the car, but presumably, the more expensive sensors should have driven up the price of the car, too, I guess. It just hasn't. As they look to manage their long-term profitability, they can make more money from repairing cars. To a certain extent, we've become kind of a revenue collector for them. We pay for the parts and have to buy them from them. I think, it's long-term. It's going to happen. You're going to see auto insurance accidents go down, which is a good thing for people. We believe with our telematics presence, we can be even better pricers than everybody else. Even though total volume comes down, we'll pick up share because we're just going to be smarter than everybody else. At the same time, we've invested in things like telematics so we can figure out what other profit streams can we make off this autonomous vehicle marketplace. Well, Tom, I'd love to talk on this all day. We've run over. I appreciate you giving us some time today. There are hundreds of people waiting to get lunch because they can't get in till the presentation's over. I'm going to let them do it. Well, as always, Josh, you know us well. Thank you for your insights, and your ongoing relationship, and thank you for helping people see what we see and letting us know when we need to look at it something different. Thank you. Wonderful. Be safe and bless your family. Take care. Thank you. Bye bye. You too.