Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Arch Resources third quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, and after the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. That's star one one, and you will then hear an automated message advising you that your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to now hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Deck Slone, Senior Vice President, Strategy at Arch Resources. Please go ahead. Good morning from St. Louis, and thanks for joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the annual and quarterly reports that we file with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as may be required by law. I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the Non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss this morning at the end of our press release, a copy of which we have posted in the investor section of our website at archrsc.com. Also participating on this morning's call will be Paul Lang, our Chief Executive Officer, John Drexler, our Chief Operating Officer, and Matt Giljum, our Chief Financial Officer. After formal remarks, we'll be happy to take questions. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Paul. Paul? Thanks, Deck, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Arch and are glad you could join us on the call this morning. I'm pleased the Arch team delivered a strong operating performance in Q3, generating a total of $454 million in operating cash flow while managing through rail disruptions in the West, isolated geologic challenges, and inflation-related cost pressures. We view this record-setting achievement as clear evidence of one of Arch's most significant strengths, our substantial cash-generating capabilities. In addition, our record cash flow performance served to showcase yet another one of Arch's core strengths, our powerful and value-creating capital return program. As you know, the board relaunched the capital return program in February after a two-year hiatus during the build-out of Leer South, and it now stands as the centerpiece of our value proposition. Arch's capital return program is governed by a simple but carefully considered allocation formula that calls for the return to shareholders of 50% of the discretionary cash flow via a dividend and the deployment of the remaining 50% principally through share repurchases and/or the settlement of potentially dilutive securities. With the $454 million in operating cash flow netted against just $41 million in capital spending, we generated a total of $413 million in discretionary cash flow during the quarter. That level of cash generation translates quite clearly into strong value-driving returns for our shareholders when we run through our capital return formula. In keeping with the tenets of this formula, the board has just declared a dividend of $206.4 million or $10.75 per share payable on December fifteenth. Complementing this dividend, we also expect to deploy a significant amount of cash associated with the other 50% of our capital return program in Q4. While we've delineated several options for the use of this second 50%, we continue to view share repurchases as an attractive investment opportunity as well as an effective means of returning capital. In addition to the progress we've made in generating discretionary cash in Q3, we also made great progress during the quarter in deploying discretionary cash while simultaneously managing our liquidity in a prudent fashion. During the third quarter, Arch deployed approximately $76.8 million to repurchase nearly 429,000 shares or approximately 2.3% of our shares outstanding at June thirtieth. Along with this, we used cash to settle an incremental portion of our convertible debt, thus avoiding an additional 101,000 shares of dilution. In short, we've already delivered in a significant way on the value-creating potential of the capital return program that was put in place just 8 months ago. As we look ahead, we expect to continue that momentum through ongoing returns as well as our sharp focus on generating additional discretionary cash and to continually recharge the program. While the capital return program is the culmination of carefully crafted multi-year strategy, it is worthwhile to recap the team's significant efforts so far in 2022 that got us to this point. In sum, since the start of the year, we've generated more than $1 billion in operating cash flows. We've fortified the balance sheet through the reduction of $427 million or 71% of our total indebtedness, contributed $110 million to our industry-first Thermal Mine Reclamation Fund, which brought it up to its targeted level of $130 million. Grown our net cash position by $588 million, giving us a $323 million net cash position at the end of the quarter. In turn, these efforts have afforded us the ability to deploy a total of $678 million, inclusive of the December dividend, under our capital return program, which again was just rolled out in February. This is a great deal of progress in a short period of time and a strong indication that we're committed to delivering on our clear, consistent, and actionable plan for value creation. Before turning the call over to John, I'd like to spend a few minutes talking about the current market dynamics, starting with our core coking coal business. Even after the step-down from historic levels achieved earlier in the year, coking coal prices remain at constructive and profitable levels. This is impressive given the recessionary pressures that continue to build around the world, and more impressive still when you consider the knock-on effect these pressures have had on global steel production, which is down around 4%. We believe this resilience of the metallurgical markets is largely attributable to the profound under-investment in coking coal supply in recent years. Despite strong coking coal prices for the better part of the last six years, global coking coal supply in the major producing regions continues to languish. In Australia, which is the source of over 50% of the seaborne metallurgical supply, coking coal exports are down nearly 7% year to date, even when compared to last year's already weakened levels. In the United States and Canada, exports are up modestly versus 2021, but continue to dramatically lag pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, the outlook for Russian supply continues to dim in face of import bans in many countries, logistical challenges, and an increasingly negative investment climate. While coking coal markets have come under pressure, global thermal markets remain at near historic highs. Importantly, these strong market dynamics are helping to buttress coking coal prices while simultaneously creating attractive seaborne opportunities for Arch's legacy thermal products. The price for thermal coal out of Australia currently stands at nearly $387 per metric ton, and the price for thermal coal into Northern Europe stands at nearly $269 per metric ton. Arch has sold over 200,000 tons of coking coal to thermal customers for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2022, and we're actively exploring other such opportunities where it makes sense. On the legacy thermal side of the business, Arch has continued to deliver on its dual objectives of driving forward with an accelerated reclamation plan while simultaneously harvesting cash from these assets. By employing this logical wind down strategy, we believe we're delivering the greatest long-term value for our shareholders, while at the same time providing an appropriate transition period for all of our stakeholders, including our employees, our customers, and the communities in which we operate. A major part of this responsible approach is our industry-first cash Thermal Mine Reclamation Fund, which ensures there'll be an appropriate level of funding on hand to complete final reclamation work at these operations when the time comes to shut them down. Following this strategy, Arch's legacy thermal operations delivered $97 million in segment-level adjusted EBITDA during the third quarter while expending less than $5 million in capital. That brings the total amount of EBITDA generated by the thermal segment over the past six years to just under $1.2 billion while investing only $123 million of capital. While that's an impressive figure, we believe the stage is set for more of the same in Q4. What's more, given our significant book of contracted domestic thermal business and continued strength in metallurgical thermal pricing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about our ability to replicate this year's strong thermal segment contribution again in 2023. In closing, let me reiterate that 2022 has been a period of great ongoing progress at Arch. Even with the typical mining challenges noted earlier, our expanded and upgraded coking coal portfolio continues to generate robust levels of cash. In addition, we believe the medium-term outlook for significant and complementary contributions from our de-risked legacy thermal segment continues to strengthen as well. In short, we believe the stage is set for continued success, ongoing value creation, and most significantly, substantial shareholder returns. With that, I'll now turn the call over to John Drexler for some additional comments on our Q3 operating performance. John? Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone. As Paul just discussed, the Arch team delivered record operating cash flow and drove exceptional ongoing progress on our strategic plan during the quarter, even as we navigated through logistical challenges, inflationary pressures, and localized geologic issues. Most importantly, the team executed at the highest level in the most critical areas of performance, safety, environmental stewardship, and other key ESG metrics. On behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank the Arch workforce for their continued dedication to the highest environmental, social, and governance principles. Let's begin with the key drivers of our Q3 performance. As indicated, our core metallurgical segment generated robust levels of cash during the quarter, even as we address the isolated geologic challenges at Leer South that acted to suppress the segment sales volumes and pressure its unit costs. The good news is that, as anticipated, we advanced through that area of tough cutting in early September and have been achieving much improved advanced rates and productivity levels ever since. Looking ahead, we fully expect productivity levels to continue to march upward as we progress through the first five panel districts. Based on what we have experienced in our ongoing development work, believe the conditions in District Two should be better still. Again, we're pleased with the trajectory we are achieving at Leer South. We're off to a good start in October, and we fully expect meaningful improvements in both metallurgical segment productivity levels and unit costs in Q4, followed by further improvements in 2023. Before proceeding, let's talk about what to expect for coking coal volumes in Q4. As you may have noted, we are now projecting, based on the midpoint of our revised annual guidance, an increase of around 15% in our coking coal shipments during Q4. That step up reflects the continuing progress we are making at Leer South and also underscores the fact that we expect still further improvements in productivity in 2023 as we move towards our expected normalized run rate. It's also worth noting that, again, given our full year cost guidance for the metallurgical segment, we are also anticipating a 10% or so reduction in average costs in Q4 when compared to Q3. While that represents significant progress, I wanna stress here that we would expect still further improvements on the cost front in 2023. As Paul mentioned, and embedded in our projected coking coal volume guidance for Q4, we anticipate shipping more than 200,000 tons of coking coal into thermal markets in Q4 at prices generally consistent with current East Coast coking coal marks. As we have stated in the past, we remain staunchly committed to serving the metallurgical needs of our long-standing steel customers, but we are also happy to redirect tons to thermal customers in the absence of more value-creating alternatives in the steel arena. In fact, we continue to work hard to identify additional crossover opportunities and believe our Q4 shipments could serve to garner further thermal market interest in our high BTU coking coal products. During the quarter, we also entered into value-creating fixed price agreements with North American customers for a small percentage of our projected 2023 coking coal output. In total, we locked in approximately 1 million tons of business for delivery next year at an average net back of nearly $190 per ton. Given our anticipated cost structure for 2023, this business should equate to a substantial contribution to next year's cash flows, despite constituting only 10% or so of our projected 2023 metallurgical output. As we have stated many times in the past, our primary focus remains the 300 million ton+ per year seaborne market, where we can compete very effectively and where we have established an expansive marketing presence and an excellent reputation. Transitioning now to the legacy thermal side of the business, I'm pleased to say that we continue to deliver on the plan for the thermal segment by generating substantial amounts of operating cash flow while managing CapEx tightly. Fortunately, we are confident we can accomplish this even while continuing to manage through significant rail service issues, specifically in the PRB. As Paul noted, the thermal segment has generated nearly 10x more segment-level EBITDA than it has invested in capital over the past six years, and the thermal team delivered more of the same in Q3. To reiterate, the thermal operations generated $97 million of EBITDA during the quarter against less than $5 million in capital. Moreover, we believe we are exceptionally well-positioned to maintain that impressive ratio of cash generated to capital expended in 2023. In terms of top-line considerations, we have a very profitable book of business already in place for our thermal operations for both 2023 as well as for several years into the future, along with the logistical network and throughput agreements needed to move a limited but highly leveraging volume of thermal coal into extremely tight seaborne thermal markets. As for the PRB, we are now more than 90% committed for 2023 when measured against projected 2022 shipping levels at average realizations that should drive another very strong contribution to cash flow next year. In addition, our West Elk operation is essentially sold out for next year at a capacity of 4.5 million tons. Given the high percentage of our sales committed at fixed price, fixed pricing, combined with the opportunity for incremental export volumes against a very favorable 2023 futures curve, we believe that the thermal segment's prospects for replicating its projected 2022 cash generation are strong and improving. We will provide a complete update on 2023 guidance at the fourth quarter earnings call. Before turning the call over to Matt, let me conclude with a few words about our Q3 performance in the ESG arena, where we continue to build on our already industry-leading execution. Through the first nine months of 2022, Arch's subsidiary operations have achieved an aggregate lost time incident rate of approximately 3.5x better than the industry average over the same period. In addition, our subsidiary operations recorded no environmental violations during the third quarter, while extending their string of zero water quality exceedances to 31 months. Finally, the Coal Creek mine, where the Arch team has completed roughly 75% of final reclamation work over the course of the past 21 months, was honored by the state of Wyoming with the 2022 Excellence in Mining Reclamation Award. In short, it was another impressive performance by the team, which remains committed to raising the bar even higher in this critical area of performance. With that, I will now turn the call over to Matt for further discussion on our financial performance and results. Matt? Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by providing additional detail about third quarter cash flows, which as Paul noted, were highlighted by record operating cash flow of $454 million. To put that into perspective, that amount exceeds any full year total that Arch has generated in the last 10 years. In addition to solid underlying operating earnings, we benefited from favorable changes in working capital, with the decline in our accounts receivable contributing $247 million to the quarter's total. While this trend was expected after the significant working capital increase in the second quarter, the actual amount was a good deal higher than anticipated. On the other hand, operating cash flows were adversely affected by a $30 million contribution to our thermal reclamation fund, with the accelerated payments into that fund now complete. Turning to the investing and financing cash flows, we spent $41 million for capital expenditures in the quarter while utilizing $186 million in the capital return program, with nearly $110 million in dividend payments, $57 million invested for share repurchases, and $19 million used to retire additional convertible bonds. Discretionary cash flow for the third quarter was $413 million. Under our capital returns formula, our board has declared a dividend of 50% of that amount, or $10.75 per share. That dividend will be paid on December fifteenth to stockholders of record on November thirtieth. We ended the quarter with cash on hand of $501 million and total liquidity of $593 million, including availability under our credit facilities. The timing of customer collections late in the quarter, including some payments that were made prior to their due date, pushed cash and liquidity to levels that were well above our target. As I stated last quarter, our goal is to end each quarter with minimum liquidity of $250 million-$300 million, supplemented by enough additional cash to cover a substantial portion of the following quarter's dividend. Before moving on, I wanted to note one additional liquidity highlight from the quarter. In August, we finalized the amendment and extension of both our accounts receivable securitization facility and our inventory credit facility. The term of both facilities now extends to August 2025, and the size of the securitization facility was increased from $110 million - $150 million. These facilities continue to enhance our liquidity and provide necessary letter of credit capacity. We are appreciative of our long-term bank partners and their continued support of the company. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, while we expect improved operating performance, discretionary cash flow is likely to decline from third quarter levels. The favorable changes in working capital in Q3 are clearly not repeatable, and in fact, we would expect to see a working capital increase. Accounts receivable at the end of September were at much lower levels than normal as compared to our revenues, and we expect that relationship to revert to historical norms over the course of the fourth quarter. From a capital return perspective, we would expect larger cash outflows in Q4, both the dividend, as we've already discussed, and in the amounts deployed in the second 50% of the program as well. As to the latter, the amount we are able to deploy in any given quarter will likely vary greatly depending on the timing of cash flows, especially in relation to normal blackout periods. While that worked against us in the third quarter, we are starting the fourth quarter with sufficient capacity, even given our liquidity and cash targets, to nearly double Q3 spending levels on the second 50%. In terms of our priorities for that part of the capital return program, the third quarter activity provides a good roadmap. Our primary focus will likely be share buybacks, but we will continue to look for attractive opportunities to repurchase the remaining convertible bonds. At the end of September, our remaining authorization for share repurchases was more than $442 million. Regarding the bonds, we have now settled or repurchased approximately $130 million of the original principal value, leaving just $25 million outstanding. Assuming a share price of $140 and settlement using cash and shares, those bonds would represent potential dilution of approximately 625,000 shares. As a reminder, the capital call that we purchased at the time the bonds were issued remains outstanding. The capital call is deeply in the money with an intrinsic value of approximately $62 million that would be paid at its expiration in November 2025. At that same $140 share price, the intrinsic value of the capital call represents an offset of roughly 450,000 shares or more than two-thirds of that dilution. As a reminder, the accounting rules do not allow for the value of the capital call to be reflected in the fully diluted share count or as an asset on the company's balance sheet. Before turning the call over for questions, I wanted to address one item that will have a positive material impact on our reported income for the fourth quarter. As we have disclosed in our SEC filings, Arch has substantial deferred tax assets, including well over $1 billion of net operating loss carryforwards as of the beginning of this year. We have maintained a full valuation allowance against those tax assets as a result of uncertainty about the ability to utilize them fully before they expire. Given our taxable income in 2021 and thus far in 2022, along with expectations for continued profitability, we expect to release the valuation allowance in the fourth quarter. This, along with expected adjustments to our FIN 48 reserves, will result in a one-time non-cash income tax benefit of approximately $225 million-$250 million. As a reminder, we continue to expect to pay no cash taxes in 2022. If coal market conditions remain favorable, we would expect to begin to pay cash taxes next year with an effective rate of up to 5% of pre-tax earnings. With that, we are ready to take questions. Operator, I will turn the call back over to you. Okay. Thank you very much. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Okay. Our first question comes from the line of David Gagliano from BMO. Dave, your line is now open. All right. Thanks for taking my questions. I have actually a number of follow-up questions. So bear with me on this. I'll try and be quick. Just, you know, first of all, on the 200,000 tons of crossover for the fourth quarter sold into the thermal market, what was the price for that 200,000? Dave, I think as we indicated, the price is approximating what we're seeing, kind of the net backs, with the existing met markets that we're seeing today. Okay. That's actually Remember, Dave. Sorry. Go ahead. Hey, David, it's Deck. Remember that some of those tons were committed earlier in the quarter at times when prices were lower. We actually got a premium on some of those volumes. Today they're fairly reflective of kind of where the marks are today. Yeah. If you're looking at pricing today, that's an accurate comment from Deck Slone. Well, actually, I mean, we get published indices for Atlantic Basin high-vol A prices, but what is the market today for high-vol A for your coal? It's above $280 right now, Dave. In that $283 sort of a range. That's FOB U.S. East Coast. Okay. Thank you. To get that number and to get that net back, you would simply take that and then work it back to the mine the way that we typically do to do the net back calculation. Okay. Helpful. Thank you. Thermal, it's been 17-19 million tons per quarter, roughly. You know, is that a reasonable range on a quarterly basis for 2023? Yeah. If you look at the midpoint of our guidance, that would kind of imply kind of in that 18+ million ton range to achieve that. You know, we've been challenged with a lot of rail issues in the PRB. We talked about it in prepared remarks. You know, we reduced the midpoint of that thermal guidance by 2 million tons. If you remember, last quarter, we dropped that by 5 million tons. Those are committed tons that are gonna get carried over into next year at attractive pricing. So we haven't lost that volume. But you are correct, we're gonna need that kind of that 18+ million run rate, and we're working hard to achieve that. You know, Dave, I think your question was also, or the way I understood it, was on 2023. Right. I think if you look at 2022, I think it's a good place to start for our 2023 volumes. Okay. On the domestic met sales for 2023, I think you said $190 per ton was the average price. That's correct. I believe that's right. Okay. I just don't have it in front of me. How does that compare to the 2022 contract price, average price? It's slightly lower. I think it's definitely. You know, as we follow the trade rags and where everything's out there, we're very pleased with what we were able to achieve, kind of with where the forward curve in the market was and feel real good about putting in, you know, those 1 million tons, fixed volume, fixed commitment, steady train service. We're very pleased to achieve that, lock those cash flows in, but still provide a lot of exposure for the remaining book and as we describe the market that over time we feel is gonna be attractive for us. Dave, while it's a very small discount to kind of where the marks are today, and as we just discussed, and I just looked, it's actually $286 today for high-vol A, where it's a very small discount to that, actually reflected the marks at the time the deals were done, in fact, a little bit of a premium. We feel good about what we've put to bed and getting that fixed-cost business, fixed-price business done. Are there plans to do any more, or is that it for the domestic 2023 on the met? I think here again, Dave, that you know, if this is it, we're fine with that. You know, our focus is the seaborne market. I think we're set up. If it's a parallel this year, we'll see dribs and drabs come in. We're sitting at about 10% of our coal staying in North America, and that's where we could end up next year. Okay. Two more real quick. What's the average price of the 90% of thermal that was locked in for 2023, or that is locked in for 2023? Just an average overall. David, it's Dak. We haven't discussed that as yet. You know, I think we've indicated that, look, this year's realizations in the PRB were particularly strong. 2023 will be another, you know, very strong year relative to historic values. We may not quite be to the level we see for 2022, but it will be another strong year creating another, you know, very solid margin in the PRB. And then, you know, we do have some fixed price business that we have done out of West Elk that, you know, is obviously at very attractive prices given current international seaborne markets. And we'll continue to explore, you know, opportunities to sort of fix additional volumes there into a still really strong current futures curve. As I said, right now it looks like it could be a small step down relative to 2022. You know, having said that, there are other things that counterbalance. One point I would certainly emphasize is that, you know, we made a $110 million contribution, you know, this year to the Thermal Mine Reclamation Fund. Next year, that contribution will be de minimis. You know, in reality, the thermal segment we would expect would generate, you know, even more cash for availability to the capital return program. Okay. Thank you. My last question. I heard the commentary, but I didn't catch it all, regarding the cash flow movements in the fourth quarter. I thought I heard at the end there during that commentary that there was the net result with working capital changes was a cash outflow, which to me implies no, you know, no variable dividend. Did I hear that correctly? David, the working capital piece, I think would be a reduction in the cash flow in Q4 as opposed to an increase that we saw in Q3. Overall, you know, if you look at quarter-over-quarter, we should, you know, work through our guidance, we're guiding to what should be a stronger operating performance in Q4 as compared to Q3. With that as the starting point, instead of getting a working capital tailwind, we're gonna get a working capital headwind. You know, as we sit here, generally, our receivables are typically about 100% of a monthly sales amount. At the end of any quarter in September, that was, you know, down below two-thirds of the sales. You know, wanna make sure that we acknowledge the great work that our contract admin and billing groups did in being able to get that and pull some of that cash forward. You know, we don't plan on that every quarter and assume we're gonna see an increase. You know, if we go back to those normal levels, our working capital increase could be as much as $100 million, that would offset those operating earnings as we look at Q4 cash flows. Still should be positive, but not nearly as robust as they were in Q3. David, as Matt pointed out, though, in the fourth quarter, the second 50%, you know, in terms of the capital we expect to deploy in that area, that could be as much as twice what it was in Q3. You know, somewhat of a counterbalance to, you know, what could be a, you know, that negative move on the working capital front. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for answering all the questions. Thank you, David. Bye-bye. Okay. We have our next caller, Lucas Pipes from B. Riley. Lucas, your line is now open. Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. Morning, Lucas. I wanted to touch a little bit on the 2023 met coal outlook and I think you mentioned you have 1 million tons contracted into the domestic market, and that's gonna be about 10% of your total sales. That implies 10 million tons of met coal next year, up pretty nicely from this year. First, if you could confirm that, but then secondly, there were these isolated geologic incidents this year, and obviously you can't change geology. I think you did a good job working through it, but you can anticipate it. You mentioned the development work gives you increased visibility of what's coming. I wondered if you could elaborate on that and if in fact you've maybe done a little bit more development work to have more confidence in the 10 million tons for next year. Thank you very much. Thanks, Lucas. You know, we'll talk about Leer South. We talked about it last quarter. We encountered sandstone in the current panel we're in. As a reminder, we had completed mining in the ramp-up of Leer South in panel one. Had a successful long wall move in the May timeframe. Came out of that move and actually saw a very healthy ramp in the beginning of panel two when we encountered very difficult cutting conditions related to sandstone. You know, as we indicated, as we continue to move further east in the first district, that first district has five long wall panels. As we continue to move east to each panel, all of the geology says that the conditions should improve. We should see less of the impact of those types of issues that we experienced during the quarter. As we are developing those new panels, we have continuous miners out there developing the head gates. We are experiencing better conditions. It's what's giving us confidence as we move forward that we're gonna see improved productivities. Probably more importantly, as we're now developing down into district two, once again where the overall geology should show improvement, we're experiencing that as well as we have continuous miners down there. So that's why as we're continuing to progress here, you know, our confidence in the level of productivity continues to get stronger. We expect that improvement to continue to play itself out. As we look forward to next year. You're exactly right. You know, as we've indicated before, if everything is running as expected across our platform, you know, we should see the opportunity to produce up to 10 million tons on an annual basis. We haven't provided specific guidance on all that, yet. We'll do that at the fourth quarter earnings release. However, you know, once again, we've talked about this before, with each of our operations, as we look at all their productivities, you know, we are comfortable that that 10 million ton arena is around where we should see the capability to produce. That's very helpful and very good to hear. Thank you for that. My second question, I may have missed this, but the cadence of any buyback from here, how should we think about that considering the movements of working capital, your minimum cash targets, the dividend that's payable in a little over a month? How should investors approach the level of buybacks between now and year-end? Thank you very much. Yeah, Lucas, this is Matt. Really probably the best way to look at it, we clearly came out of Q3 with a little more cash on our balance sheet than we wanted to. Quite a strong collection performance in the last couple weeks of the quarter, which, as you know, is a blackout period around earnings. That really limited how much of that cash we could deploy in Q3. But puts us in a very good position, as I mentioned in my remarks, as we head into Q4. As I indicated in those remarks, you know, we think we could as much as double what we spent in Q3 on the second 50% of the program. As we said, you know, that's likely gonna be buybacks. Just to put that in perspective, you know, we did buy back over 400,000 shares, nearly 450,000 shares in Q3. If we're able to hit that doubling level of that, depending on the share price, you know, we could buy back as much as 1 million shares or maybe even slightly more as we go through Q4. Lucas, I think one of the surprises for all of us, you know, we put a lot of thought into the capital return program and the allocation method. What, you know, in all the modeling we did, I think what surprised us was how lumpy cash flow can be at the end of the day. Matt was kind of generous, but I think the last day of the month, we received almost $100 million in receivables. It's a great story, but it really kind of makes the numbers a little distorted. You know, we've had quarters where, you know, people didn't pay on time. This is one of those weird quarters where people paid ahead of time. You know, unfortunately, I think the capital return can be a little lumpy, but I think the bottom line is the intent is the same. That is 60% of discretionary cash flow is going to go to the variable dividend, and the second 50% will ultimately end up as share buybacks or the, you know, the buy down of the convertible debt. Very interesting. Well, maybe at current inflation rates, people just can't wait to get rid of their cash. I really appreciate the perspective and continued best of luck. Thank you, Lucas. Thanks, Lucas. One moment while we compile our next question. Okay. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company. Nathan- Hey. Your line is now open. Morning, Nate. Yeah. Good morning, guys. Thanks. Thanks for taking my questions. You know, maybe I'll start off just touching on 3Q coking coal realizations. You know, possibly a little lower than some had thought, just based on some of my prior conversations. Obviously, you know, we saw a lot of volatility in the price during the quarter. But maybe can you give a little more color on that result? Then I guess really what I'm trying to get at as well, just looking forward to the fourth quarter is, you know, let's just say we assume, for example, Benchmark stays flattish quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter, which, I mean, I think it's actually averaging pretty close to that right now. You know, given the fact that prices have been notably more stable than they were in the third quarter, is it unreasonable to expect, you know, realizations to be up in the fourth quarter? Thanks. Nate, you know, just kind of reviewing the performance for the third quarter. You know, if you just take the benchmark for High-Vol A, I think it averaged for the quarter around 274. Convert that to short and then back out about $60 of transportation costs associated to get it from the mine to the port. You're kind of back into that, you know, mid-180s, $185-$187 a ton. Obviously, across our portfolio, we're shipping to a lot of different places around the world, so you're affected by a lot of different benchmarks. At the end of the day, that's kind of the big driver, that High-Vol A price and kind of netting back, you know, using that kind of methodology. I think from our perspective, we feel that we, you know, the achievement of the price was kind of where we expected it to be for the quarter as we move forward. You know, once again, kind of nail down where that price is gonna be for the quarter, and it's gonna be a big driver as far as, you know, what the final outcome will be. As you know, we sit here today, you know, we would expect, you know, if things were to stay relatively flat from where they are now, we would expect essentially, you know, a modest uptick, but it would be very modest. Once again, depending on what you're showing as your coking coal price today across our portfolio as we move into the fourth quarter. Nate, just to connect that final dot. Remember then the number we reported, you know, for our realization, average realization on the coking coal side was $189.50. You know, we view that as actually a premium and having outperformed where the market was through the quarter. Remember too, you also have some low vol volumes that were a bit lower, high vol volumes that were a bit lower. Actually on a realization basis, fairly strong in Q3 relative to the benchmark numbers. Got it. Thanks for that commentary, guys. I guess, you know, not unsurprising to see full year coking coal shipment guidance come down, and maybe a little bit lower than expected. Maybe can you guys talk about what gets you to, you know, the high end, versus the low end of that revised guidance? Is it still mainly logistics based? It sounds like production's improving. Just any color there would be great. Thank you. Yeah. You know, Nate, I think the issue that you know, we continue to work through is how well is that ramp at Leer South post all the sandstone gonna continue, you know, as we move forward. That's a big driver here, as we work to the end of the year. You know, you have to look at the flexibility of all of our operations and where they're at. The other item that kind of impacts what we're looking for in the fourth quarter, given the timing of how we're continuing to mine at our two longwalls, both Leer and Leer South, we actually will have both operations. We expect both of them to be in longwall moves prior to the end of the year. Typically, you know, you don't see two longwall moves falling in the same quarter. We're gonna experience that here. That's just giving us a little more conservatism around the number that we're looking at here. Longwall moves are nothing of any significance for us. They're kind of part of the routine operation of a mine. We get them done very efficiently, very effectively, typically in the east in a 10-12-day timeframe. Having two of them fall in the same quarter, it's kinda giving us a little more caution as far as what we're looking at from a guidance perspective. Nate, some of the, you know, some of those numbers in terms of guidance. Look, we're assuming that logistics continues to be, you know, a bit challenging, particularly as you look at vessel shipments. Look, we'd expect the end of the year with healthy inventories, not excessive, but healthy inventories. Look, we could certainly outperform that midpoint number, but we think that it's prudent to sort of guide to the levels we're guiding to, and we'll see where it goes. If we don't ship in Q4, we could be shipping additional volumes in Q1. We'll see how it all plays out. Deck Slone, that's a good question. Can you remind me? I think you guys had 1.1 million tons of inventory at the end of the first half. Kind of, where does that stand today? Yes, I think we're right at around 900,000, 1 million tons, right in that arena right there. Essentially flattish over the course of the quarter. Got it. Thanks. Thanks, John. Maybe kinda shifting gears to the cost side, and John, you just alluded to, I guess, you know, two longwall moves, Leer and Leer South in the fourth quarter, maybe contributing to a little bit of the increase in full year met coal segment cost guidance. How would you expect that to kind of trend heading into 2023? I think maybe in the prepared remarks there was around that we expect that to run through. Any additional color there would be great. Yeah, Nate, I think, you know, clearly we're operating as an industry in an environment where there are a lot of inflationary pressures. It's affected us all. It's affecting us also. The biggest driver for us and the biggest thing that we'll move forward from were some of the challenges that we had from a production standpoint and volume-related. As we move forward, with the improvement in volumes we're seeing in Q4, and despite the inflationary pressures, once again, we see a 10% drop in fourth quarter unit costs. As we step into 2023, we expect that improvement to continue. We haven't provided guidance yet. You know, a modest improvement from the levels that we've seen in 2022 just from the expectation of improved volume performance in 2023 is what we're expecting. We'll provide a full update in the fourth quarter earnings call on our projections. Nate, again, just to do the math and connect the dots. If our costs have been around $100, a 10% step down puts us at around $90. As John said, if we see another market step down from there, we certainly believe that will put us, you know, very, very easily and nicely into the first quartile in terms of cost and really well to the left on that cost curve. We feel good about the trend. Obviously, we wanna take it as low as we can go, but, you know, some prudence and some caution here given just an intense inflationary environment. Got it. Very helpful, guys. I think I'll leave it there. Thanks for the time and best of luck through the end of the year. Hey, Nate, thanks for the call. Okay, one moment while we bring on our next caller. Okay, our next question comes from the line of Alex Hacking from Citi. Alex, your line is now open. Morning, Alex. Hi. Hey, morning, how are you? I'll just ask maybe a quick one as we're coming to the end of the hour. On the met coal shipments, it sounds like at the moment, you know, the mine is maybe the bottleneck. Earlier in the year, it was the logistics. You know, I mean, I guess as we head into 2023, I think, you know, you've discussed that, you know, you're hopeful that, you know, the mine or the Leer South can support run rate close to 10 million tons a year. Do you think that the, you know, U.S. rail and port logistics, you know, can support 10 million tons a year next year? Also, you know, do you think that the market can support 10 million tons next year, given, you know, all the closures that we've seen in European blast furnaces? I guess maybe you could discuss, you know, the current market conditions and whether or not you're having any challenges placing the coal. Thank you. Alex, this is Paul. I'll start with this and maybe let Drexler jump in here. You know, as you look going into fourth quarter and into 2023, I gotta tell you, the eastern railroads I think are doing a pretty good job of getting back on track with things. You know, we really have no complaints about what they've done the last couple months. I think we're getting really good messaging on 2023. You know, obviously the one big thing that will help us is Curtis Bay coming back fully online sometime this quarter. We're expecting to head into 2023 in pretty good shape all around. I'll divert for 1 second from your question. You know, the West is, you know, particularly with, you know, the PRB, we've had one of the railroads just have terrible performance. Unfortunately, we're heavily weighted to that railroad. It's been difficult, and it's cost us a lot of money this year. You know, back to the broader question on the market, you know, we're cautious about what's going on in Europe. I think frankly, that's why you're seeing us put a lot more emphasis on Asia and particularly India. That's where we see our market ultimately growing towards, and that's what our plan is. John Drexler, anything? Yeah, no. I think, Paul, that's excellent. I think, you know, just to add to that, you know, despite some of the challenges that we're seeing with economic conditions, with kind of the concern around, you know, closures, you know, we continue to see on the supply side a lot of challenges. Even despite the significant and healthy price, you know, you've seen a lot of challenges in Australia, and that was even before they had some of the issues with weather. You have the threat of industrial action with BHP. In Australia, there's been a lot of noise around. You know, there's just a lot of concerns. There's specific mine issues across the world. So, you know, there continues to be a lot of support in the markets that we see out there that we continue to take advantage of. Thanks. I appreciate the color. Thank you, Alex. Operator, are you there? Our next question comes from Michael Dudas from Vertical Research. Michael, your line is open. Thanks, guys. Good morning, everybody. Paul or John, as you budget, as you're in the budgeting process for 2023, is it prudent to look at your input costs, labor, et cetera, to keep it flat from where it is today, up a significant, you know, plus, let's say, 5%? Or do you see any indications that there may be some moderation, and from these high levels, you see some maybe help that could have come about in 2023? Yeah. Michael, that's, you know, that's a great question and kinda one of those crystal ball type questions. I think you're hitting on an interesting point, right? As the industry has worked through this year, we've all encountered, you know, significant and very healthy inflationary impacts. You know, you've seen significant increases in steel input costs. Fuel costs have skyrocketed from last year. You know, those are areas where maybe there's a flattening or moderation that it can occur. Once again, we'll update with full expectation at the next call. As we look forward, you know, it's kinda hard pressed to see a significant decline in those types of inflationary pressures. At the same time, hopefully, we're not seeing the same things that affected all of us over the course of this year as we move forward. Maybe there's more of a return to modest inflation. You know, we can all debate where the economy is ultimately gonna go here and but I think, you know, once again, from a modeling perspective, a modest uptick from ongoing inflation might be prudent here from where we are today. Right. I think you make a great point. You know, the industry and you guys have absorbed all this amazing input and costs and in labor, et cetera. I think that could be helpful going forward. Just one quick follow-up. Looking at the PRB and looking at your expectations for next year shipments midpoint and looking forward, if you know and you've set up some longer term contracts that you indicated in your calls. Looking longer term, is the acceleration of the output from those from Black Thunder, I guess how long, you know, versus when you put out the plan, you know, was it two or three years ago, what the fall off might be in production? You know, how does that look today given the market, the market demand price and what you've done with their funds so far? Look, I'll start and maybe Deck, I'm sure wanna jump in on this. You know, I don't think really anything has changed in the PRB. We can all argue the public policy side of this, but you know, I look at it from a pretty pragmatic point of view. You know, last coal-fired power plant was built 10 years ago in the United States, and the average age is creeping up at 47years, 48 years. This trend is continuing. I think we'll see slowdowns and retirements over the next two years or three years, but you know, this thing is heading towards a pretty fast decline rate. You know, I think as we look at what we're doing, we're taking into account that ultimately the glide path on thermal coal consumption in the U.S., and we're tailoring our Black Thunder operation towards it. I think we could have, and the industry could have, on the thermal side, a very profitable, you know, period of time where this coal is gonna be needed, and we'll do very well. What we're not gonna do is invest anything to increase production. If anything, we're just gonna continue to follow the market. I think the industry will do well if that's kind of the tack that's taken. You know, Mike, we were at about 1 billion, you know, 1.1 billion tons of thermal coal consumption in the U.S. in 2008. Last year, that was about 520 million tons. This year, around 490 million tons. Look, we, the reality is that- In progress for the company. We're aging out, and we're seeing retirements. We could see some extensions. In fact, we've seen about 15 gigawatts of extensions announced here in recent months, which is certainly helpful. We have about 500 million tons of reserves still in the PRB that are permitted and that we fully intend to mine. That would allow us to produce at these sorts of levels, you know, for the next several years, and generate a lot of cash there. You know, in the end, we do believe that the fleet's gonna age out because we aren't building any new coal plants, as Paul said. We are getting age on these plants. Our view hasn't changed, but we certainly believe there's an opportunity to generate a lot of cash, you know, over the next five years-seven years from these assets. We've built a really strong book of business that we plan to leverage. The fact is that book is not just strong for 2023, but, you know, we've got a lot of length on it as well. We've got strong commitments for 2024, 2025, 2026. We feel good about what we can do there, but our view of where thermal coal consumption is going in the U.S. hasn't changed. I guess one final point. Look, this year, coal conservation has been a significant part of the step down in consumption. Utilities just aren't able to get the ton. You know, would say that we are seeing a little stabilization, likely could have seen generation and coal demand for power generation at, you know, roughly equivalent to 2021 levels this year, but utilities can't get the coal. You know, the fact is that demand has stabilized here a bit, and that could persist. Michael, I wanna wrap up real quick with a swift kind of final comment on that. The teams at our operations in Wyoming and Colorado, they're doing an incredible job, you know, with this very challenged, you know, kind of environment that you see out there. There's plenty of opportunity. We've worked real hard, they've worked real hard to make sure that we are all in a position where these windows of opportunity are created. We're gonna, you know, make a lot of hay while the sun's shining. That's what they're doing. They're doing an incredible job. As Deck indicated, we believe there's a lot of length there. We need to stay in the right point of the cost curve, in the operations or regions that we're operating in and take advantage of these market opportunities. The teams there have done a wonderful job. I really appreciate those thoughts. Excellent job, guys. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Okay. I would now like to turn it back to Paul Lang, President and Chief Executive Officer for closing remarks. Paul? I wanna thank you again for your interest in Arch. As I've mentioned earlier, 2002 has been a period of great ongoing progress for the company. We've completed the hard work and taken the necessary steps to build a compelling cash generating model. Our focus now is to continue to refine our operating platform and to wring out additional efficiencies in all aspects of the business. Along with this, we believe it's entirely appropriate, and we fully intend to continue to reward our shareholders for their investment and trust over the last several years. With that, operator, we'll conclude the call, and we look forward to reporting to the group in February. Stay safe and healthy, everyone. Very good. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Thank you.
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