As he's the VP of Finance for the resi business. So I think we're gonna start with a few prepared remarks from Jesse, and then we'll hop into Q&A. So, with that, I'll turn the floor over to you. Terrific. I know a number of you know the story, but I thought I'd at least start with maybe a quick overview. So first, you know, simply on the business model, we take recycled materials, and we turn them into products that are used to replace wood on the outside of homes. So just a couple of data points that are relevant. We're the largest vertically integrated recycler of PVC in the U.S. and potentially in the world. We have yet to find anyone that operates at our scale in terms of recycling PVC. And we take those products, and we make basically two categories. We take that recycled material, we basically make two categories of products. We make a product line which is effectively deck, rail, and accessories. So, we replace wood decks, and as Tim pointed out, we're one of the larger companies that do that. We also participate in rail and accessories around it. In addition to that, we're one of the largest or the largest manufacturer of cellular PVC trim. So the way to think of trim is when you put siding down, you put doors in, you put windows in, all of those accent pieces on the outside of a house are what's called trim. In addition to that, we define it broader as exteriors, and so basically, everything on the back of this house fits into, with the exception of the stone, fits into what would, you know, be defined by us as either our decking business or our exteriors business. So why we matter as a company relative to, you know, what excites our own employees, and also is a core part of what we believe we offer to the external world as an investment. Not only are we one of the largest recyclers that are out there, but we operate with a model that's double-digit growth with high 20s and expanding EBITDA margins. And so if you look at our track record over an extended period of time, I'm gonna go here, effectively, our residential business, depending on the time period in which you evaluate it, has a 10-year CAGR, a five-year CAGR, a seven-year CAGR, between 12% and 16%. So we're a double-digit grower. That is fundamental to how we operate the business. The other thing, as you can see here, is over a long period of time, we've had very nice EBITDA growth, you know, more than doubling over the last few years. Let me go back here briefly to our strategy. We have a really simple, straightforward strategy. One of the tailwinds we have in the markets that we play are the markets are predominantly wood. So if you use decking as an example, 75% of that market on an annualized basis is wood, and 25% is our types of materials. So for us, we are always getting, if we run our business right, and we engage the market right and engage consumers right, we're always getting a tailwind of a conversion from wood in the market to our types of materials. And so we're going through our own analog to digital, premise to cloud, I don't know what the AI transition is, but there, there's a lot of buzzwords there. We're benefiting from our own market conversion. And so as you look at our strategy, participating and driving that market conversion through having the right portfolio and the right marketing is a key part of our strategy. The second is product innovation. We launch products, you know, every year, and we've been doing that for a decade. Those products either secure the base, expand the wallet opportunity we have with our existing customers, or allow us to expand into near adjacencies. Channel expansion, we've been under-indexed in certain parts of the market. We have viewed that as an opportunity and, you know, retail specifically for us, as an example, which is about a third of the decking market, through retail channel partners, that has been an accretive opportunity for us, accretive to our own revenue growth, and we've executed against that. Consumer journey, engaging consumers, building the brand, and helping people make the right decision has also been a key part of our strategy that we're investing in. And then lastly, M&A, and it is intermittent, it is additive, and it is tuck-in. We really like our current business model. So if you roll all that up, our growth and margin stack really stacks to roughly double- digit. It typically stacks on top of the R&R market, and we also have a stated objective of 27.5% EBITDA margins by 2027. We are ahead of our expected pace on that, and we should achieve that earlier. So with that, I'll pause there. I think that covers most of the elements, and- Yeah ... give Tim a chance to ask some questions. Yeah, no, that's great. Thank you for that. If you have any questions, you can raise your hand, or you can email sessiontwo@rwbaird.com. You know, I guess, Jesse, you know, one of the things, you know, we've kind of been seeing over the last couple of months is just, like, a little bit of a wobbly, you know, consumer. And I know you have a lot of data that you see in terms of, you know, website visits and sample orders and things like that. And so I guess any sort of, kind of near-term commentary on kinda how, you know, the consumer is kinda acting and the data points that you kinda see within, within your various businesses? Yeah, I mean, the market we play in R&R, depending on how you segment the market, I would say is flattish, which is the broader repair and remodel market. And I think the key for us is when we look at consumers, we are separating based on certain demographics. Number one, they have to be a homeowner, in general. Like, you're not doing our kinds of activities if you don't own your own home. So that's already bifurcating the consumer base, and so typically, we're operating with a consumer that has assets, home as an asset, and equity. And within that, we're also typically skewing to a more mature homeowner. It's probably not your first house. You owned a house, you got really annoyed at the deck, you lived on it, and, you know, next time you repair something, you're not gonna go through that again, right? So a lot of the, you know, our demographics tend to skew older and more affluent, and I think within that, what you see is steady. That's probably the best way to describe it. Now, there's always geographic variations, month-to-month variations, but in general, that consumer set. I happened to see the CEO of American Express speak, and, you know, I don't know if we overlap. I should look at that, but it is that kind of a consumer has been pretty steady. And we, you know, where we play in DIY through the retailers, for us, is a lot of new business, and so we're growing in that segment. And so if there is weakness there, it's masked by the fact that we're just, we're outgrowing where we're there. So, you know, in a slight, long-winded way of saying, you know, we see a pretty steady consumer. Okay. You know, we would appreciate if the R&R market grew faster, but it's steady right now. Okay. Okay, good. And then, your sell-out or sell-through metric has been, you know, double digits now for the past four or five quarters. And I think there's a couple, you know, a couple of things that have kind of gone in there in terms of retail and exteriors and things like that. But maybe just to start on the retail business, that is a business that when you guys went public five years ago, you were pretty vocal that were underexposed here. Could you just talk about some of the wins that you've had there and maybe some of the investments that you've had to make in that channel, whether it's people, capacity, those types of things- Yeah ... and kind of just where you're at? Yeah, we're a really strong pro brand, and pro is about two-thirds of the market. You know, every contractor, most architects, you know, would know the AZEK brand or the TimberTech brand, which are our two main brands. So, you know, we have invested there. As you rightfully point out, you know, six years ago or so, we recognized we were under indexed. We meaningfully expanded our sales team, focused on retail, and retail kind of splits into two things. One is special order, where people walk in, you place an order, it gets fulfilled, and it's a really nice additive sale to a retailer. So we started investing, we started seeing really nice growth in that special order business. And then on the retail side, you know, that, what is stocked on the shelf at retail, if you think about a product category, is good, better, best premium, it tends to be more in the good category. You know, we developed a product portfolio, we added capacity to give ourselves the ability to play in that market, broader. And over the last few years, we've been able to obtain a shelf position in both retailers of that business on the shelf. And I would say it's a combination of, you know, really having great retail customers that wanna grow their business and us finding ways to support them in growing that business. And a lot of it really has to do with the strength of the brand and the acceleration, and the accelerating strength of the brand. Once again, we believe it's really important to play where all the customers we could access play, and this gives us, you know, an additional way to access the DIY and customers that may not be reached by our pro segment. Okay. And then when you think about, you know, what is like a realistic share target within retail over the next three to five years? Because I think you were probably something like maybe sub 10%, you know, before. Yeah. Where do you kind of see that kind of mapping out to? You know, as you pointed out, we were—you know—kind of mid-single- digit. You know, we're probably closer to 15% of our business now is, you know, through what would be classified as retail channels. I think we will always predominantly be a pro player. But certainly, you know, we see a creative opportunity for years to come. So, you know, it's hard to put a target on it, but, you know, you could certainly see a scenario where 20% of our business goes through that channel. Remember, the channel is about a third of the market, so we would still be under index, but we think, you know, there's good opportunity to service our customers working with these great companies. Okay. Okay, great. Maybe shifting gears just a little bit to exteriors. So it's about 30% of your business has a lot of the same conversion, you know, material opportunities that you have in decking, but sometimes it kind of gets... I guess, overlooked by investors. Yeah. I guess maybe just spend a little bit of time on your exteriors business, and then, you know, you've come out with a siding product that we saw at the Builder Show, you know, both in Versatex and in the AZEK brand. That seems like a pretty big white space opportunity. Just maybe talk about what you're targeting with that product specifically. Yeah, so as I mentioned in the earlier remarks, the exteriors business is a terrific business. We have... we're basically the number one brand in the market through AZEK. In fact, we're synonymous with this idea of composite trim on top of siding and accent pieces, right? So, you know, people will say, "Hey, we're putting AZEK on the house." And it's a really, in particular, in the Northeast, it's a really, really well-known brand. And so we have enormous brand strength, we've got technology strength. We happen to have the number one and number two brands in the space with Versatex. And it you know, we've done a nice job of you know, gaining position and expanding position in that marketplace. If you think about the characteristics of the market, you know, let's say siding is maybe teens wood, whereas trim, which sits on top of siding, is almost 40% wood. And so it just doesn't. There's a disconnect there in terms of, you know, the opportunity we have to drive wood conversion where we already have a strong product. So that's much more of a contractor productivity play and a low maintenance play, and a little less consumer, but it matters to the consumer. It's much more of a contractor sell, and we've been doing it for 20 years. So then you look at the opportunities we have. We have wood conversion opportunities, and we're constantly launching products and getting after that. In addition to that, what's somewhat unique about that business, more so than deck rail and accessories, is we have an opportunity to leverage our core customer base and go into adjacencies that they're already buying. So we already sell to people that install siding. And there's some great siding players out there. They're really good at long, flat, good-looking, durable planks. And we recognize that those players can do that. What they can't do as well is they're not really good at water. Like, our product can go all the way down, it can be exposed to water, it can soak in water, and they're not really good at doing shapes, right? So if you look at siding applications that have more shape to them, like cedar planks and those kinds of things, that's really the niche that we're going after. So we're early, early in that with the two products. The market size or the market opportunity, you know, as we define it, a subset of the siding market, that's underserved, is probably $1 billion-$2 billion, depending on how you define it. And we've got solutions that can replace vinyl siding with something more superior or go out and replace cedar. So those are the two niche areas that we're going after. We don't have a lot built into the plan, you know, maybe tens of millions over a long period of time. But, you know, for us, it's a way to service our customers, and provide them something differentiated. And, you know, there is an option that that could be much bigger. Okay. But it's a nice additive product for us right now. Right. Good. How important is exteriors and decking to your kind of distributor customers? I mean, is there a natural kind of cross-sell there that you're able to take advantage of? So we go through two steps of distribution. You know, we define that first step as a channel partner. I mean, we're working intimately together. They're exclusive to us. We have two in every region. So for each of our channel partners, they have a decking and a trim. For channel partners that other companies sell through, they also have a trim. So, like, every distributor partner that's playing in this game would have, almost all, would have both decking. If you have decking, you have trim. That's just. They're very synergistic or exteriors, as we define it. Then, if you go to that dealer base, that independent or, or, you know, part of a consolidation, you know, like a BFS, like a ABC, or the private versions of that, SRS, whatever. If you're selling, if you have a dealer that's selling decking, you're also selling trim. And so, when we're engaging in that conversation, it's really, it, you know, it's a huge asset for us to be able to have a discussion about the synergy across the portfolio, and we can develop products that, that work with each other. And then if you go to the contractor, sometimes they separate. There might be some, you know, siding contractors, but almost all decking contractors will use some form of trim to accent their jobs, so they all need trim. There's a lot of synergy across the businesses. Okay. Okay, great. And the last synergy, our exteriors products use recycled PVC. So the fact that we've got recycled PVC that goes into decking, it's a huge advantage for us on the exterior side. We take that same recycle stream and put it into the exteriors business. Good. Good. On PVC, 'cause you, some of your closer competitors have more of a capped composite, which is more of a, you know, plastic and kind of wood fiber business. You have the PVC business. How is the PVC product different than capped composite? And I guess, how does your kind of customer base and ultimately, like, the, the consumer base kind of, kind of view the two different products? Yeah, I mean, I happen to be carrying this around, but just as a reminder, you know, a deck board is something in the middle, usually recycled, and then a cap on the outside. The benefit of PVC is it's lighter, it's cooler, it's less dense, and in particular, the way we manufacture it, it's 30 degrees cooler than our cap composite and other cap composites. And one of the other key aspects is PVC is used in, you know, conduit and other applications that are exposed to spark and flame and all that. PVC inherently, and the way we're using it, doesn't like to burn. So we've got a designation recently called Ignition Resistance, which is above any of the classes. There's, like, Class B flame spread, Class A, and then ignition resistant. You don't need to know what they mean, except the higher you go, the better for resisting flame, which is a really big deal in fire zones, right? You think you're putting a huge source of energy in a fire zone that can burn. You want something that doesn't burn. So those are basically the key differences. And then we happen to have an ability to get certain visuals out of the PVC product line, in addition to using recycled PVC. From a consumer set, we're ourselves and our competitors are solving the same problem, which is someone needs, you know, a good-looking, long-lasting deck. We have an ability to solve certain problems uniquely that I just described. And then it's a little easier to install. It's different to install, but it's easier to install. So once a contractor uses PVC, they usually don't want to go back. But we have both products. There are some contractors that like cap composite, that's just the way they do things, and we sell our cap composite product there. But, you know, we also have this differentiated and unique product line that it tends to skew much more premium. So in the good, better, best premium category, we tend to be, you know, better or best in premium with our PVC line. It tends to occupy that very high-end slot. Any questions from the audience? Ira? Can you just give us an update on the 10-Q, and when you think that might be filed? Yeah, we... and you can read our 8-K filing and all that, so I won't go through the description of it. But, we, we, because of an inventory misstatement issue, we are refiling the previous few years of 10-Ks, and we haven't yet filed our 10-Q. We, in our NYSE kind of notice of delinquency on May 12th, I think we said it would be about a month. We expect it to roughly be about a month from May 12th. So, you know, roughly next week is how you should interpret that. We and I'm not trying to box our auditors in or anything like that, but we're very much on track, and we're just working through the tail end of the audit. Thank you. Any other audience questions? Maybe just to switch the focus a little bit to more- By the way, just a quick comment. There's no impact to our future business. We've disclosed the expected impact of the restatement. You know, there isn't anything more except to get the appropriate paperwork filed. Yeah. Okay, good. And then maybe just on, you know, kind of switching focus a little bit to margins. So you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you've got this 27.5% margin that you've kind of, you know, outlined over by, I think, fiscal 2027. You know, with your guidance, I mean, you're kind of bumping up against that almost this year, you know, if not next year. I don't know if you're ever gonna kind of officially change the targets, but, I mean, what is the right kind of rhythm, I guess, on margins to kind of think about, you know, in a normalized scenario for AZEK? Yeah, and you know, we had a lot of catch-up over the last 18 months. We did a lot of great things that was masked by some inflation and within the supply chain. As that came out, the progress we made is showing up in our margins. And so I think our guide, roughly, for the 2024, roughly equates to 26% and change, EBITDA margins for the year if you look at the midpoint of our guide. So against that, you know, what we've said is our business has the capability to expand EBITDA margins about 100 basis points a year. And now, I'm not guiding to 2025 or anything like that. We may use some of that capability to reinvest in the business or do other things, but. And that would typically break out to about 75 basis points on gross margin and 25 basis points on SG&A leverage. We have not had SG&A leverage this year. That's a choice. We saw opportunities to continue to invest. I mean, we're always thinking about the next two years of our business. We never try to optimize the year we're in. That's not the model we're in. We're a long-term grower. We want to sustain double-digit growth for an extended period of time. So, we've made investments this year that will benefit us next year and this year. We may choose to do the same next year, but the model at 100 basis points would include 25 basis points of SG&A leverage if we choose to, you know, let that happen. Yep. Okay. And I guess under the surface, on the gross margin side, I mean, there's several things that you're kind of doing, right? So you've got recycling, you've got product reconfiguration, you know, you've got just the move between various grades. So I guess, how impactful are each of those as you kind of think about it? Because it seems like similar to your revenue growth, there's several things that are kind of contributing to the- Yeah ... to the share gains. Under the surface, on the margins, it seems like there's a couple things that are also contributing to the margin expansion. Yeah, I was trying to see if that slide had the word portfolio on it. We, you know, the language we'll use is on both growth and margin. We really think it's important to have a portfolio of actions. Nothing ever works out perfectly. You, you've got to have a bunch of stuff you're working on to make sure you, deliver, and over-deliver against the numbers. So as you pointed out on the margin side, recycle, I think we said in 2022, we had about 350 basis points, of recycle opportunity ahead of us. You should think since then, we're about halfway there.... but if I sit here now, halfway doesn't mean there's only 175 basis points left. There's still a ton of recycle opportunities, so, but we're halfway against what we talked about in 2022. In addition to that, we have done certain things to the product to make it configure better, and be able to better, you know, deliver, and then we have seen a nice, delivery against our lean initiatives. Lean's always a big deal, Lean Six S igma. You can always drive productivity. If I didn't have the other two things, I would be showing-- I'd do what other industrials do and show you a great example of, here's a lean project, we did this, and we save whatever, right? You should know that we are constantly executing just basic blocking and tackling projects. You know, in general, I would say our margin expansion so far is probably pretty equally weighted across those three. Moving forward, you know, I think there's an opportunity to continue to be equally weighted across those three. Okay. Okay, good. And I guess, like, as you muse, you know, you talked about the PVC business being kinda more high-end. As you incorporate more recycled material and kinda lower the cost of that product, I mean, is there opportunities to move the PVC product kind of downstream? Just 'cause I think the visuals on the product have always been pretty compelling on the high end. Yeah. And so, I mean, is that, is that a product opportunity over the long term? I think the benefit. So right now on decking, let's say we're in the 60s in terms of usage of recycled PVC. We're probably in the 40s in terms-- you know, low 40s, high 30s in terms of recycled on exteriors, our trim business. You know, we have opportunities to go much higher recycled in both those product lines. As we do that, it gives us a lot of flexibility on how we might position those products. And so, you know, the PVC product is, you know, the effectively, for a category standpoint, the most premium product in the market for its size. And you know, we will continue to develop products that take advantage of that. Whether or not we choose to, you know, bring the product in different areas, I think there's a reasonable... As you look at painting exteriors and painting trim, it gives us an opportunity to move downstream more, to be able to attack more segments in terms of wood replacement on the exterior side. Whether or not we do it in decking, I think remains to be seen. Okay. Okay, good. And then just from a cash flow perspective and a balance sheet perspective, you've been relatively active with the buyback this year. You have made some kind of smaller tuck-in acquisitions. You know, I guess, how is the pipeline? You know, and you know, I think you've been relatively disciplined there. How do you kinda toggle between M&A and buybacks? Yeah, in our Investor Day, I think we said, you know, up to $100 million a year in M&A. I think we're having a difficult time getting to that level. We really like our business model, and we wanna make sure anything we do is additive to that business model. Think of tuck-in acquisitions. You know, we bought Intex, a really super premium rail player. You know, it puts us in a nice position with our... Our customers were already buying it. It fits right in. We can bring recycled PVC to it. It's a great, you know, smaller acquisitions. I think we'll always continue to do that. I don't know what the number is on an annual basis, but, you know, you should think of we're always gonna spend, you know, tens of millions, if we can, to do these kinda tuck-ins that just expand the product portfolio. As you rightfully pointed out, it leaves a lot of cash left over. We're sitting with a lot of cash on the balance sheet right now. About half our debt is floating in terms of the term loan. And, you know, so we might consider what the right opportunity is there. We're getting interest on the cash we have, but, you know, at some point, it's logical to pay down some of that. And then we'll continue to reinvest in a buyback. Right? We, we've got authorization for another $75 million. We've gone through our $400 million authorization pretty fast. You know, we'll continue to be opportunistic and programmatic, both relative to using our cash. It's not just using our cash generation; we're sitting on a lot of cash right now. So, you know, there's an opportunity to continue to deploy that. Great. We're out of time, so please join me in thanking Jesse and the AZEK company for being here today. Great, thanks. Jesse and Ryan will be available for a breakout in the app.
Loading workspace