Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that the first quarter of 2021 press release is available to download at the investor relations website of Banco Macro at www.macro.com.ar/relations-investors/. Also, this event is being recorded, and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. So any participant need any assistance during this call please press star zero to signal the operator. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Nicolás Torres of Investor Relations. Now I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolás Torres. You may begin your conference, sir. Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's first quarter 2021 conference call. Any comment we may make today may include forward-looking statements which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. First quarter 2021 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's also available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of the first quarter of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through March 31st, 2021. I will now briefly comment on the bank's first quarter 2021 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 2.2 billion, 39% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 77% lower than the result posted a year ago. The bank's first quarter 2021 annualized ROE and ROA of 5.4% and 1.1%, respectively, remain healthy and show the bank's earnings potential. Net operating income before general and personal expenses for the first quarter of 2021 was ARS 37.2 billion, increasing 5% or ARS 1.8 billion quarter-on-quarter due to lower loan loss provisions and higher income from financial instruments at fair value through profit or loss. On a yearly basis, net operating income decreased 10% or ARS 4.1 billion due to lower net interest income and lower net fee income. Operating income after general, administrative, and personal expenses was ARS 18.9 billion, 16% or ARS 2.6 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2020 and 19% lower than in the first quarter of 2020. In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 23.8 billion, 3% or ARS 761 million lower than the result posted in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 22% or ARS 6.6 billion lower than the result posted one year ago as a result of different regulations adopted by the Central Bank that set caps on lending rates and floors on deposit rates. In the first quarter of 2021, interest income totaled ARS 45.1 billion, 4% or ARS 1.9 billion lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2% or ARS 1 billion higher than the previous year. Within interest income, interest on loans increased 1% or ARS 194 million quarter-on-quarter. Interest income decreased 20% or ARS 5.4 billion year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2021, interest on loans represented 50% of total interest income. Net income from government and private securities decreased 6% or ARS 1.3 billion quarter-on-quarter due to lower income from government securities. Compared to the first quarter of 2020, net income from government and private securities decreased 31% or ARS 4.9 billion. In the first quarter of 2021, FX gains including investments in derivative financing totaled a ARS 1.2 billion gain, 15% or ARS 221 million lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020. The gain in the quarter is due to the 10% Argentine peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar and the bank's long spot dollar position. On a yearly basis, FX gains increased 60% or ARS 456 million. In the first quarter of 2021, interest expenses totaled ARS 21.3 billion, 5% or ARS 1.1 billion lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 and 55% or ARS 7.6 billion higher on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits decreased 5% or ARS 1 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by a 7% decrease in the average volume of time deposits, which was partially offset by a 64 basis point increase in the average interest rate paid on deposits. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 61% or ARS 7.7 billion. In the first quarter of 2021, interest on deposits represented 95% of the bank's financial expenses. In the first quarter of 2021, the bank's net interest margin, including FX, was 17.4%, higher than the 16.3% posted in the fourth quarter of 2020 and lower than the 25.2% registered one year ago. In the first quarter of 2021, net fee income totaled ARS 5.9 billion, 7% or ARS 466 million lower than the fourth quarter of 2020. On a yearly basis, net fee income decreased 6% or ARS 393 million. In the first quarter of 2021, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss totaled ARS 4.6 billion gain, 23% or ARS 854 million higher than the previous quarter. This gain is mostly related to higher income from government securities and investment in equity instruments, mainly the market of our 4.5% Prisma stake. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS 1.6 billion, increasing 5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. On a yearly basis, other operating income increased 5% or ARS 81 million. In the first quarter of 2021, Banco Macro's personal and administrative expenses totaled ARS 10.7 billion, 12% or ARS 1.5 billion lower than the previous quarter, due to lower administrative expenses and lower employee benefits. On a yearly basis, personal and administrative expenses decreased 1% or ARS 116 million, showing the strict cost control policies adopted by the bank's senior management. In the first quarter of 2021, efficiency ratio reached 35.7%, improving from the 38.8% posted in the fourth quarter of 2020. In the quarter, expenses decreased 11%, while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income decreased 3%. In the first quarter of 2021, the results from the net monetary position totaled a ARS 14.4 billion loss, 20% or ARS 2.4 billion higher than the loss posted in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to higher inflation observed in the quarter, which was 163 basis points higher than the fourth quarter, going up from 11.33% to 12.95%. On a yearly basis, the loss related to the monetary position increased 75% or ARS 6.2 billion. This is the first quarter in which the result from the net monetary position is shown pursuant to Communication A 7211 of the Central Bank of Argentina, in which the inflation adjustment on our LELIQs and other government securities is included, which was previously shown in net income from financial instruments at fair value through profit or loss. In the first quarter of 2021, Banco Macro's prospective tax rate was 51.4%, higher than the 16.3% registered during the fourth quarter of 2020 and the 36.9% registered one year ago. In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector totaled ARS 259.4 billion, decreasing 9% or ARS 25.8 billion quarter-on-quarter, and 17% or ARS 54.1 billion lower year-on-year as a consequence of the economic recession that affected Argentina during 2020 and with low demand. Commercial loans decreased 13% or ARS 17.9 billion, among which others comes out as loans extended to SMEs as part of the relief package given the COVID-19 pandemic started to come in. Consumer lending decreased 5% or ARS 7.6 billion. Credit card loans decreased 9%. Within private sector financing, peso financing decreased 9% or ARS 23.9 billion, while U.S. dollar financing decreased 15% or $47 million. It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of March 2021 reached 7.3%. On the funding side, total deposits decreased 17% or ARS 94.8 billion quarter-on-quarter, and increased 3% or ARS 13.2 billion year-on-year. The private sector deposits decreased 14% quarter-on-quarter, while public sector deposits decreased 33% quarter-on-quarter. The decrease in private sector deposits was led by demand deposits, which decreased 16% or ARS 37.9 billion quarter-on-quarter, while time deposits decreased 13% or ARS 29.7 billion. Within private sector deposits, peso deposits decreased 19% or ARS 90.6 billion, while U.S. dollar deposits decreased 13% or ARS 134 million. As of March 2021, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 49% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share over private deposits as of March 2021 totaled 5.6%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing to total financial ratio reached 0.92%, and the coverage ratio measured as total allowances under expected credit losses over non-performing loans under Central Bank of Argentina rules totaled 387.82%. Consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 16 basis points up to 0.89% from 0.73% in the previous quarter, while commercial portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 10 basis points in the first quarter of 2021. Asset quality continues to be positively affected by risk measures adopted by the Central Bank of Argentina in the current pandemic context, particularly the 60-day grace period that was added to debt classification before a loan is considered as non-performing. In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 157.4 billion, which represented a total regulatory capital ratio of 37.7%, and a Tier 1 ratio of 30.3%. It should be noted that on April 30th, 2021, the shareholders meeting approved a dividend of up to ARS 10 billion in cash or dividend in kind. The ARS 10 billion from the dividend will be deducted from shareholders' equity in the second quarter of 2021. The effective distribution of the dividends as approved by the shareholders meeting is subject to Central Bank's authorization. Pursuant to Communication A 7181 from the Central Bank of Argentina, the distribution of profits by financial entities is suspended until June 30th, 2021. The bank's aim is to make the best use of the excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposits ratio reached 94%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position, asset quality remained under control, and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards, and we keep a well-optimized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions that you may have. Thank you. At this time, we're going to open it up for questions and answers. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your touch tone phone. Please unmute your phone and record your name clearly when prompted. One moment please for the first question. The first question will come from Pedro Nobrega with Citigroup. Please go ahead. Hi, everyone. Yes, this is Gabriel here. I just wanted to check in on the asset quality front. This quarter, we saw you booked almost no provisions. If you could just maybe give us a bit of color here. Did you maybe reverse any provisions which you had done in the last year, or are just really confident and uncomfortable with your current risk profile that you don't need to create these provisions? Just lastly, how should we think of provisions going forward? I'll ask you a second question afterwards. Thank you. Hi, Gabriel. This is Jorge Scarinci. The answer to your question is basically that we think that we have a reasonable level of provisioning. We were very conservative in 2020. Considering the situation of our loan book, we consider that the level of provisions is fair enough considering what is going on now and what we are expecting for the rest of the coming quarters. Going forward, I would assume as a cost of risk estimate between, let's say, 2% and 2.5% for the whole 2021. All right. That's very clear. As for my second question, looking at your capital base, I understand you have already declared these in dividends. Even if we were to subtract these dividends from your capital, your common equity Tier 1 ratio would still be above 20%. I just wanted to understand, are there any other strategies which the bank is pursuing on this excess capital? Do you maybe think that an acquisition makes sense right now? There's not a lot to do considering the regulations established by the Central Bank. Organic growth has been always an element present in Banco Macro strategy for the last 20 years. That could be a strategy. Of course, we are open to any possibilities. However, we have to see if there is any bank willing to leave the game. That could be an alternative. Apart from that, we are not finding for the moment another attractive element in order to put where to put the excess capital, honestly. All right. Fair enough. Thank you so much. Thanks, Gabriel. The next question will come from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Hi, morning, Jorge and Nicolás. My question is on inflation. Looking to April's inflation, it's already at 46%, so a little bit higher when compared to March. Do you expect it could be higher in the second quarter and then normalizing for the rest of the year? I just want to know how it will be impacting the results of the net monetary position. If also you can share us your expectations for interest rates and the effective tax rate in the coming quarters will be very helpful. Thank you. Hi, Ernesto. In terms of inflation, yes. You know that we do not measure inflation, but according to the local economists that consider those mechanism of trying to estimate inflation, they say that the first quarter was the highest quarter. The coming quarters should be showing a bit lower of inflation. Expectations for 2021 are between 45%-47% approx. We should be seeing lower inflation levels second, third, and fourth quarter. That is going to have a, let's say, positive impact in our income statement, basically because the level of the monetary position should be below the level that we posted in the first quarter. In terms of the guidance for interest rates, honestly, for the moment, we are not seeing any movement on interest rates. In the second quarter, we think that the level is going to be maintained. However, according to some also local economists, they are expecting for some increase in the third and fourth quarter of the year, maybe between 100 and 200 basis points. Honestly, I don't know. When you look at the macroeconomic variables, we think that a higher level of nominal interest rates should be needed here. However, the Central Bank is not showing any movement or any guidance in that front. According to local economists, they are saying that in the third or fourth quarter, we should be seeing an increase in interest rates. Going forward, I would expect for second, third, and fourth quarter of this year, in terms of margins, I would assume an average between what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, considering the current level of interest rates. In terms of effective income tax rate, yes. You know that here in Argentina, tax is a bit of a mess, and we have a kind of accounting balance for taxes and another accounting balance for P&L. For estimation purposes, I would assume between 35% and 37% income tax rates as an average for the year. That is what we are expecting for this year according to what the local version of IRS has in its pockets. That's very helpful. For my second question, is there any update related to regulation? For example, if we should expect subsidies to continue or cut rates or floors or anything else? We think that for the moment, the regulations are going to be maintained. Honestly, we do not know what will happen by the end of the year after midterm elections. For the second quarter, and at least a big part of the third quarter, we are seeing that the present regulations are going to be maintained. Very good. Thank you so much. You're welcome, Ernesto. The next question will come from Alejandro Herenda with Itaú. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning Jorge and Nicolás. Thank you for the call. Just to have a little bit of color on what you're seeing on the deposit side and how are you thinking about the liability management. The second thing is that the Treasury has ARS 1.2 billion to roll over in the next three months, which looks quite challenging. We saw a measure yesterday from the Central Bank that it was really uninspiring. What do you expect in terms of additional measures going forward? What do you think that we could expect from them in the coming months? Hi, Alejandro. How are you? In terms of deposits, what we are seeing is, of course, the nominal level of deposits in the system is growing. In terms of our asset and liability management, we are trying to find what is the best level of deposit that we should have, because as you know, the loan demand is picking up, but in a very tiny speed. If we increase a lot of deposits, we have to apply that excess liquidity either in repos to the Central Bank of Argentina or funding the treasury in order to have an attractive interest rate in order to compensate the level of the deposit rate. Therefore, we are not aggressive or that aggressive in terms of increasing our deposit base. For the moment, we are trying to find out what is the best level, always keeping an eye, as all we have done, on the profitability of the bank. We do not want to increase market share if that is going to affect the profitability of the bank. In the first place, we put profitability. In terms of your second question, according to the regulation that the Central Bank put out yesterday, we understand that the treasury needs a lot of financing in the coming future, as you mentioned. This is a kind of a voluntary element in order to reduce the level of LELIQ and increase the level of local public bonds in pesos and put that as a way of the reserve requirement at the Central Bank. Of course, we are analyzing the measure. We consider that having the Central Bank as a debtor is better than having the treasury as a debtor. I think that public-owned banks are going to use this deregulation, but I don't know what will be the reaction of the rest of the banking system. Again, we still don't know what we are going to do. We are going to be, of course, pretty conservative and trying to find out which is the best for Banco Macro and, of course, keeping a close eye on depositors. That this is the key question here, if depositors would feel comfortable with their deposit being applied on these reserve requirements in the form of public sector bonds. That is what we are going to keep an eye on. Okay. Thank you very much. You are welcome. The next question will come from Alonso García with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Hello, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. My question is on the volume side, and we observed not only in Banco Macro, but in the rest of your peers, a low start in loan volumes in 2021. I know that seasonality has something to do with that. Also, the fact that you report in real terms and inflation was even higher in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. Is there something else? Could you please comment on how you are seeing demand dynamics both on the commercial side and on the retail side? Also, on your side, how is your risk appetite at the moment? Thank you. How you expect this to evolve for the remainder of the year? Thank you. Hi, Alonso. Loan demand is, of course, pretty tied to expectations. That is not new. Expectation here in Argentina for the moment is a recovery in GDP compared to the big decline that Argentina suffered in 2020. The recovery of the GDP in return is expected to be between 6% and 7%. Inflation, as I mentioned before, between 45% and 47%. That is what the market is expecting. For the moment, we continue to see companies demanding working capital short-term in pesos. You know that having the midterm election around the corner is something that is a big question mark there, depending on the result, what will be the new policies that the government could be taking. In terms of consumers, what we are seeing is a bit of increase in consumer demand tied to the increase in the nominal level of salaries, tied to the negotiation between the unions and the companies. You have to consider that we continue to have the pandemic with us. You know that the last nine days, and this is going to last next Sunday, there was a big close of the economy here in Argentina and the commuting in order to reduce the level of people having this COVID-19. The level of the vaccine or the amount of the population having two doses of vaccine here is slightly below 3%. That is going a very slow motion or low speed. That is also affecting the behavior of consumers. We think that by the end of the year, loan increase in Banco Macro is going to be slightly positive in real terms. What we expected to see between the third and the fourth quarter, a pick-up in loan demand. Very clear. Thank you for your answer, Jorge. You are welcome, Alonso. The next question will come from Carlos Gomez with HSBC New York. Please go ahead. Hello, good morning. My question is a follow-up on the alternative to use Treasury paper for your liquidity requirements. We understand that it is optional at this point, and you have made very clear that you prefer the credit of the Central Bank. Do you think there's a possibility that in the future it might be an obligation that you might have to buy paper from the government? If that is the case, do you have any legal recourse against that? Thank you. Hi, Carlos. Yes, for the moment, it's voluntary. Honestly, we don't know if in the future we're going to be forced to that. If I have to guess, I would say no, because we had these type of experiences in the past in Argentina, and the conclusion or the ending of that was not good, not for the country, not for the banking sector. If that is the case, we are going to see if there is a legal alternative to go, and if it is, we are going to go for that. That is what I'm guessing for the moment. Again, I think that it will continue to be voluntary. We are assigning a very low probability of occurrence that the banks are going to be forced for that. Thank you. If I can follow up, you had a particularly high inflation adjustment this quarter. I understand that there was a change in accounting, and it was bigger also in the fourth quarter. Is it a normal level of adjustment or should we expect lower in the future, not only because inflation goes down but because there was something special in the quarter? No. Nothing special. Going forward, we think that with the declining inflation, the level of this monetary loss is going to go downwards. Very clear. Thank you. Welcome, Carlos. The next question will come from Santiago Petri with Templeton. Please go ahead. Yes. Hi. Good afternoon. Hope you are all fine. My question is related to this new regulation. Can you remind us what the percentage reserve requirement now, and does this new regulation has already stated what percentage of these reserve requirements can be integrated with public assets? Finally, can you remind us what the limit to total public sector asset holdings and if this reserve requirement eats into this limit? Thank you. Hi, Santiago. How are you? In terms of LELIQ, we can have up to 45% of transactional deposits and 27% of time deposits. For the moment, we have a level of close to ARS 125 billion in the LELIQs. Going forward, these regulations starting next Tuesday, the 3rd of June. We are going to continue as we are working right now with LELIQs, not putting the sovereign bonds there. Honestly, we think that this regulation is more targeting Banco Nación or maybe Banco Provincia. They have a huge amount of sovereign bonds in pesos. Besides, this is a way of leaving more room for the treasury to get extra financing and reducing the financing of the Central Bank through LELIQs. For the very beginning of June, we are going to continue as we are working right now. Sorry. Can you remind us the limit to public sector holdings? At the moment, it's capped, no? What is the limit? In terms of the public sector, we have ARS 130 billion in public bonds in pesos, denominated in pesos. That is around 21%, 22% of total assets. Okay. Thanks a lot then. Thanks. Bye. You're welcome. The next question will come from Rodrigo Nistor with AR Partners. Please go ahead. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. My question is regarding strategy. Well, it seems that many of the variables that determine the banking sector results like inflation, the level of monetary policy rates, are not under your control. My question is, what is your approach with the variables you can control? What can you share with us on that front? Hi, Rodrigo. What we are trying to do, and we did that in 2020, and we are trying to do in 2021, because of the pandemic that we are undergoing and how that is affecting the economy as a whole and the country, is to work maybe in expenses, to work on the quality on the credit risk, trying to manage the best level of the deposits that we have, asset and liability management. Basically, again, always looking on the profitability of the bank, and we are not caring about market share. That is something that in Banco Macro, we have been looking for that in the last 30 years. The idea is to continue for that. If there is a possibility to use the excess capital in any of the alternatives, we are going to study and go for the best. That is what we are working on a daily basis here in Banco Macro on those issues that I mentioned before. Thank you. That was really clear. Welcome. As there are no more questions at this time, this concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Nicolás Torres for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Good day. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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