Century Communities Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Tyler Langton, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Century Communities. Thank you. You may begin. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for Century Communities Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter, 2023. Before the call begins, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described or implied in the forward-looking statements. Certain of these risks and uncertainties can be found under the heading Risk Factors in the company's latest 10-K, as supplemented by our latest 10-Q and other SEC filings. We undertake no duty to update our forward-looking statements. Additionally, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this conference call. The company's presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Hosting the call today are Dale Francescon, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer, Rob Francescon, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President, and David Messenger, Chief Financial Officer. Following today's prepared remarks, we will open up the line for questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dale. Thank you, Tyler, and good afternoon, everyone. I want to start by saying that we are very pleased with our solid third quarter results, especially within the context of a challenging overall housing market. Despite rising interest rates, our sales activity performed in line with our expectations and typical seasonality, demonstrating the strong underlying demand that remains for affordable new homes. Our deliveries of 2,264 homes increased on a quarter-over-quarter basis and benefited from improved cycle times. Home sales revenues of $865 million grew by 6% over second quarter levels, with our average sales price gaining 4%. Our gross margins increased by 490 basis points sequentially to 24.6%, while our adjusted gross margins increased by 480 basis points to 25.8%. As a result, we delivered third quarter diluted earnings per share of $2.58, a 62% increase over second quarter 2023 levels. Turning to our sales activity, our net new contracts in the third quarter totaled 2,149 homes, a 63% improvement over the level of sales activity that we saw in the third quarter of 2022. We commented last quarter that we expected more typical seasonality to return this year, and we saw it play out in the third quarter, with our net orders declining 7% sequentially, roughly in line with the 6% quarter-over-quarter decline we saw in the third quarter of 2019. Our net orders in August and September both exceeded the levels we experienced in July, which we view as a positive trend given the continued increase in interest rates over the past several months. Looking out to the fourth quarter as a whole, if typical seasonality holds, we would expect our net orders to decline on a sequential basis. We are continuing to see good demand for affordable entry-level homes across both our Century Communities and Century Complete brands, and wanted to use this opportunity to go into a little more detail on the value that we see in our Century Complete business, which currently generates approximately 35% of our sales and deliveries. As we've discussed in the past, Century Complete targets entry-level customers with 100% of its deliveries within FHA limits and only acquires finished lots. It is a scalable business model, which requires less capital investment and yields quicker asset turns. The increase in interest rates over the past year has also reinforced some additional advantages of the Century Complete brand. In the third quarter, Century Complete had an average sales price of $265,000, and the large public home builders generally don't build at this price point. Century Complete tends to compete more with existing homes and smaller private home builders, which puts us in a strong position. Existing home inventories remain depressed due to the lock-in effect, so there is less competition from the used home market. Smaller, private, new home builders tend to borrow from local and regional banks. Their borrowing costs are generally higher than ours, and we think the local and regional banks will likely reduce the amount of credit that they are willing to extend to the smaller private builders. As a result, we think Century Complete is in a strong position to capture additional market share in the years ahead. Turning back to Century as a whole, we continue to maintain our focus on building some of the most affordable new homes in the markets we serve. More than 90% of third quarter deliveries were from homes priced below FHA limits, which allows us to target more potential buyers in any given market. Additionally, 99% of our home deliveries this quarter were from spec builds, which enables us to better control our costs and allows our buyers to purchase quick move-in homes and lock in their mortgage rates for certainty of financing. Our cancellation rate was 16% in the third quarter, consistent with our year-to-date rate and well below an average cancellation rate in the low- to mid-20% range in the years prior to COVID. We continue to believe that our cancellation rate is benefiting from buyers adjusting to the higher interest rate environment and our strategy of selling homes later in the construction cycle. In closing, we're encouraged by the improvement that we have seen over the past several quarters in our deliveries and gross margins, which are benefiting from reduced levels of incentives, improved cycle times, and lower direct costs. As expected and previously messaged, our deliveries have increased sequentially in each of the last two quarters, and as Dave will detail in his remarks, we expect our fourth quarter deliveries to increase over third quarter levels and are increasing the midpoint of our 2023 delivery guidance. The sequential improvement in our margins and deliveries this year, coupled with the increase in our community count, which Rob will discuss further in his remarks, position us well for 2024. On behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank our team members and trade partners for their hard work and dedication that made these results possible. I'll now turn the call over to Rob to discuss our operations and land position in more detail. Thank you, Dale, and good afternoon, everyone. Given the market demand, we were able to reduce our level of incentives while still maintaining a healthy sales pace in the quarter. Incentives averaged roughly 700 basis points on closed homes in the third quarter of 2023, down roughly 200 basis points on a sequential basis. In the third quarter, incentives on new sales also averaged approximately 700 basis points and were primarily mortgage-related. While we are continuing to purchase forward loan commitments and are currently offering our customers 30-year fixed interest rates between 5% and 6%, depending on the loan type, with certain programs even lower, the cost to buy down these rates to these levels has been increasing over the past several months with the overall increase in interest rates. However, given the ability to significantly lower monthly payments, a below-market interest rate provides us a significant sales tool that continues to be one of the most sought-after incentive by our home buyers and allows us a competitive advantage over private builders that can't compete on this front. We experienced further improvement in our cycle times on completed homes in the third quarter, which generally averaged in the five to six month time frame. We expect our cycle times to see some additional improvement in the fourth quarter, such that by the end of the year, we are back to starting and completing homes in the more normalized 4- to 6-month time frame. Earlier this year, we discussed direct construction costs declining by roughly 11%, an average of approximately $20,000 per home, versus the high watermark in the second quarter of 2022. The homes with these savings will flow through in the fourth quarter as we deliver these lower-cost homes and help offset the rising cost of mortgage rate buydowns. Given the level of industry-wide new home starts, our direct construction costs on the homes we started in the third quarter, which will be delivered in 2024, increased approximately 1.5% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Turning to land, we ended the third quarter with approximately 69,000 owned and controlled lots, a 19% increase over second quarter 2023 levels as we continued our land acquisition efforts. This higher lot count was driven almost entirely by an 11,000 lot increase in our controlled land to 38,000 lots. Our controlled lots as a percentage of total lots increased to 56% in the third quarter, from 46% last quarter and 39% in the first quarter. Our 30,000 owned lots in the third quarter are consistent with levels over the last seven quarters and provide approximately three years of deliveries based on prior year volumes. In the third quarter, our community count of 252, a company record, increased by 16% from year-ago levels and by 8% on a sequential basis. Century Complete accounted for over 40% of our total community count, while the Southeast and Texas combined accounted for close to 30%.... as these markets are continuing to perform well, given their relative affordability and strong employment and population growth. We continue to expect our year-end 2023 community count to be in the range of 250-260 communities, showing strong year-over-year growth of 20%-25%. We believe this increased number of communities will represent a new base for Century Communities, which we will look to grow even further as we recognize increased deliveries in 2024 and beyond. I'll now turn the call over to Dave to discuss our financial results in more detail. Thank you, Rob. During the third quarter of 2023, pre-tax income was $112 million, and net income was $83.2 million, or $2.58 per diluted share, representing sequential increases of over 60% for all three metrics. EBITDA for the quarter was $125.3 million, a 56% increase over second quarter 2023 levels. Home sales revenues for the third quarter were $865.1 million, compared to $1.1 billion in the prior year quarter, and $818.4 million in the second quarter 2023. Our third quarter deliveries were 2,264 homes. For the fourth quarter, we are currently forecasting deliveries to be in the range of 2,200-2,600 homes. Our average sales price of $382,000 in the third quarter increased by 4% on a sequential basis as we continued to reduce incentives and selectively increase base prices. At quarter end, our backlog of sold homes was 1,887, valued at $707 million, with an average price of $375,000. In the third quarter, adjusted home building gross margin was 25.8%, compared to 21% in the second quarter 2023. Home building gross margin was 24.6%, compared to 19.7% in the second quarter of 2023. As expected, our gross margins increased sequentially in the third quarter due to improved cycle times, lower direct costs, and reduced levels of incentives. For the fourth quarter, we expect our gross margins to decline versus third quarter 2023 levels, primarily due to the increased cost of mortgage rate buydowns. SG&A, as a percent of home sales revenue, was 12.9% in the third quarter, compared to 9.9% in the prior year. The largest driver of this year-over-year increase was the spreading of our fixed costs over a lower revenue base, as well as more normalized commission rates on home sales. Looking out to next year, we expect our SG&A as a percent of home sales revenues to decline on a year-over-year basis as we look to grow our deliveries and keep our fixed levels of SG&A relatively constant. During the third quarter, financial services captured 71% of our closings and generated $23.6 million in revenues, compared to $23.3 million in the prior year. This business contributed $12.2 million in pre-tax income, compared to $9.3 million in the prior year quarter. Our net home building debt to net capital ratio decreased to 25.3%, compared to 32.5% in the prior year quarter. Our home building debt to capital ratio decreased to 30.8% at quarter end, compared to 36.3% at the end of the same period last year. During the quarter, we maintained our quarterly cash dividend at $0.23 per share and ended the quarter with a strong financial position, including $2.3 billion in stockholders' equity, $1 billion in total liquidity, and $246 million in cash. At quarter end, we had no borrowings outstanding on our $800 million unsecured revolving credit facility that does not mature until April 2026. Additionally, we have no senior debt maturities until June of 2027, providing us ample flexibility with our leverage management. Finally, back in September of this year, S&P upgraded our credit rating to B B from B B-. Now turning to guidance. Given the continued strength in our deliveries, which have benefited from improved cycle times and a continued sales pace, we are increasing the midpoints of our full year 2023 guidance for home deliveries to be in the range of 8,600-9,000 homes, and our home sales revenues to be in the range of $3.2 billion-$3.4 billion. With that, I'll open the line for questions. Operator? We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question is from Carl Reichardt with BTIG. Please go ahead. Hey, guys, how are you? Great. Thanks for the time, as always. Thanks for taking my question. I'm gonna talk about the margin change, 480 basis points, year-on-year, direct construction costs, incentives off, and improved cycle times. Can you talk a little bit about how each of those three contributed to that 480 basis points? Was there a lean in one direction or the other? I assume it was incentives, but maybe just sort of lay that out for us. ... Yeah, I think it was really a combination of all of them, Carl. You know, we saw the ability that we were pulling back on some incentives with the sales for our homes that closed during the third quarter. We saw the benefit of some lower direct costs that came through in those closings as well. And then being able to deliver a home in a more normalized construction period is helpful. And, you know, we had some markets where we're increasing base prices. And so the combination really of those, you know, three, four items, it's tough to parse out which is which and which one may have contributed more than another. But obviously, all four really contributed to, you know, some great gross margin performance we had this quarter, that we could talk about. Okay. And Dave, so then, if we look at fourth quarter and trying to think about the sequential change in margin, you'll have direct construction costs. I don't know if it'll be up or flat with third quarter on a per house basis. Incentives may come up, pricing power may flatten, and your cycle times, I think, will continue to improve. So if I add that all up, the change in gross margin from third quarter to fourth quarter should be relatively modest on a negative basis. Is that the right way to think about it based on what you're seeing today? Yeah, I think those are definitely all the components that we're weighing against each other, and it's really going to come into, you know, what are the costs of those mortgage rate buydowns or other incentives that we have in place in order to move product, and what does that do to margin? That, you know, as you know, sitting here today, not sure what the economic environment and rate environment will look like in 30-60 days as we're closing homes. But those are definitely the four, you know, the three or four components that we're looking at that'll impact margins in the fourth quarter. Okay, great. I'll get back in queue. Thanks so much. I appreciate it. The next question is from Jay McCanless with Wedbush. Please go ahead. Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. Could you talk about which markets or maybe what percentage of communities you've been able to raise price? You know, Jay, it really comes down to a community-by-community basis. Although, you know, generally, I'd say we have more pricing power in Texas, in our Southeast markets, and in Florida. It's just, you know, those markets have benefited more from having lower price points in general, more in-migration, stronger economies. So in general, if we were going to look at it, I'd say that most of the price increases came in those markets. Okay. And then, Dave, I think you said that you guys are expecting the SG&A margin, SG&A to sales margin in 2024 to kind of flatten out. So is this $112 million, is this the kind of run rate going forward on a quarterly basis? Yeah, I'd say, it... Yeah, we, we're looking at, you know, we feel comfortable with where we are from a fixed dollar perspective. So I think on the fixed dollars, you know, we feel good about that, and then, obviously, the variable is going to float as we see closings come through the pipeline. But, you know, the comment was really, we think that SG&A, as a percent of revenues, is going to decline on a year-over-year basis as we're looking to grow our deliveries next year. So I think that with fixed dollars being, you know, relatively constant, 2023 to 2024, we should see some leverage improvement in that line item next year. Okay. And then, I guess, kind of thinking ahead for 2024, if rates stay at these levels or even go up from here, I mean, should we expect gross margins to kind of settle in somewhere... You know, if, if it's going to be down sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter, how much more with, with what you're seeing in terms of these buydown costs, what type of, of impact might that have on fiscal 2024 gross margins? Especially if, if you're thinking you're going to have to carry a full year of buying down an 8% or 9% par rate down to, I think you guys said on your website, it's like 5%, 7%, 8% for some of these. I guess, how much more is that cost going to go up if you have to carry this for a full year versus may only call it three months, where, where rates have been around 8%? That's really tough to forecast in terms of where that mortgage market is going to be in terms of buydowns. We do expect that the cost of buydowns will go up, and accordingly, if you go ahead and move it to 9% or something above an 8%, it's going to get more costly. But we'll really look at that, you know, next year, and we'll try to evaluate that so we can still post, you know, the best margins possible. Because we'll look at how far do we want to buy down the rates. Are we buying them down across the board, or are we buying them down by community? And then what products are we utilizing in terms of government loans versus conventional, and then what do we want to be offering to the consumer? We'll look to stratify the offerings and try to minimize the impact, but we do expect that if rates are going to be at an elevated level for some time, it's going to cost more. Okay, and one more, and I'll jump back in queue. I guess, what are you guys thinking in terms of, of the community openings that are coming on? Where do you expect average pricing to go, and, and, and are you expecting Century Complete to, to flex higher as a percentage of the community count and maybe pull that ASP down a little bit in 2024 versus 2023? You know, Jay, we're looking from a community count growth, you know, at the 252, where we ended Q3, that's where we really think the base is going forward. So as we forecast out, let's just say, over the next 12 months, we think our community count is going to grow in that. But it's going to grow similar to where we've been now, with the same percentages of Century Complete versus the Communities brand. But again, it's off this higher base, which we feel really good about that, and that's why we're anticipating to have higher deliveries in 2024 than we did in, are going to have in 2023. Okay, sounds great. Thanks. That's my questions. The next question is from Alex Rygiel with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead. Thank you. Just following up on community count, will the contribution of new communities have a notable impact on your average selling price in 2024? No. They're, they're very, you know, they're very similar. We've continued to look at more entry-level offerings, so it will be very similar to the price points we're at now. And again, that's on a general statement. We have outlier communities that some are at higher price points, of course, for different markets and, you know, different niches and strategies within a particular market. But as a general statement, the new communities that we're opening are very similar from a price point standpoint to where we are today. Looking at the communities, again, Century Complete communities are down year-over-year. Most of the other regions are up. You've referenced a number of times the expectation to see some growth in Century Complete communities. Is it communities that are growing? Is it the average size of the community within Century Complete increasing? A little bit more color there would be helpful. Yeah. So the average size is definitely increasing in Century Complete, and also some of that's timing differences as well, because just as a reminder, Century Complete only buys finished lots, and so sometimes there may be delays on a developer bringing the lots to us, from a cycle time. And so there could just be, you know, certain, you know, mixed delays within these, within a particular point in time. But as a general statement, the communities are getting bigger. Thank you. The next question is from Alan Ratner with Zelman and Associates. Please go ahead. Hey, guys, good afternoon. Nice quarter. Hi, Alan. Question on the incentives. So, sounds like they were pretty steady, both on orders and closings during the quarter, around 700 basis points. But based on your, I guess, comments for fourth quarter, it sounds like you expect an uptick there. What was the trend on orders, I guess, through the quarter into September and October? Have you seen that incentive number rising here thus far in October? Yeah, we have. As we look at the third quarter and coming into the fourth quarter, you know, interest rates have continued to stay high and actually continue to increase. So when we look at the cost of buying down mortgages to be able to offer something in that mid-5% range, it just becomes more costly, depending on as the rate continues to increase. So yes, we have definitely seen the increase, and we expect to continue to see an increase. Got it. Okay, that makes sense. And then the, the rate you're offering in that 5%-6% range, how are you thinking about that in... If rates continue to kind of gradually move higher from here, is that an important kind of, line in the sand, where you feel like once you get above a 6% rate or, you know, it's in the mid-6s, that you see a, a pretty dramatic pullback in demand? Or will that base kind of gradually move higher along with the, the current prevailing rate, it's just kind of you're trying to ease that, that, trajectory a little bit? You know, that's really hard to say. I mean, obviously, you know, the way we're mitigating the high, high rates is to buy them down, and we even have some programs, for a small dollar amount on very, very select communities that are in the high 4% range. Obviously, that's very costly right now and, but we like a 5 handle on it currently. If rates continue to go up and, you know, they get up approaching close to 9%, then the reality is, we're probably not going to be able to offer that, and our competitors aren't either, and the consumer will adjust to that, but it'll just raise up. But it's really hard to say how rates are going, other than what we do know for a fact is that at the current lifted rates, it is costing us more on the buydowns currently. Got it. Great. And if I could just sneak in one, one more. The big increase in your lot count this quarter, can you provide a little bit of color around, you know, what, what's the... These lots that you're tying up today, you know, when should we expect that to flow through to community count growth? What's the pricing trends in the land market today? And are you seeing any, you know, compelling distressed opportunities, either from BFR deals falling through or some other factors that might have contributed to the big jump in lot count this quarter? So we are buying from BFR operators, operators that had picked up lot positions. They were either going to get a fee builder on it or build it themselves. We've been successful in purchasing lots from those entities, so you know, that's been a positive. In terms of the timing of the increase, you know, as you see, it really increased our control percentage, and we telegraphed this in our previous calls, that we were going to increase our land based on, you know, how we changed in 2022 on some of our control positions with a decrease based on market conditions. We wanted to get back up to levels we felt comfortable with, and this has been a good start in the third quarter to get there. There are a variety of lot types from finished lots. That's obviously our preference, if we can get finished lots, in an adjusted time basis, and so we have some of those. As far as development deals that we are developing, you know, those depend on municipalities and timelines, Alan, as I know you know these answers are, they're anywhere from, you know, 12-24 months generally before they start development, and then, you know, you go from there. So, it's kind of an all across the board, structure on the land. But we feel really good about the control positions we have. They're in the markets we want them to be in, the higher growth markets, some of the markets Dale alluded to on this call, and we feel really good about them. Great. One just last thing. You also asked about distress. We have not seen any significant distress in the market. We are seeing things open up a little bit where financing is being tighter for the privates. They're not able to compete. It's really competition against public to public. So certain things are opening up. But as far as distress, I wouldn't go that far yet. Thanks very much. Appreciate it. You're welcome. The next question is from Alex Barron with Housing Research. Please go ahead. Yes, thank you. Yeah, I was curious if you guys could tell us how many homes you started this quarter? That's my first question. Yeah, this quarter, in terms of the starts, we did 2,434 homes. So we're pretty much matching what we're doing from a sales pace. Got it. Yeah, my other question was, you know, last year, I think, several builders engaged in trying to find the market clearing price, and obviously, that had an impact on margins. This year, it seems like everybody's focused on buying down rates instead, which I think is probably healthier. I'm just kind of curious if, as we're approaching year-end, are you-- do you believe that's likely gonna continue to be the case, or are you starting to see, you know, some of that activity of people trying to compete on cutting prices? Well, I guess we'll see as we get closer to the end of the year. Right now, the incentive that buyers are most interested in is to have a below-market interest rate. And you can certainly see why it dramatically lowers their cost of ownership. And so that's where our focus has been, and as we look at our competitors, that's where their focus has been so far as well. Okay. Well, hopefully we'll keep our fingers crossed that it stays that way, because it seems like a more rational way to compete, I think. Yes. Yeah, other than that, do you believe in general that, you know, because you, you said you expect growth in units for next year, so do you believe you're just gonna, that's gonna happen based on growing community count, but maybe slightly lower sales pace? That's tough to say. You know, we think that we're well positioned. We're well positioned today, you know, if you know, call it 250-260 community count going into next year, given our current sales basis, we feel good about being able to deliver those homes. You know, we'll comment more on future guidance when we get into our fourth quarter call, and we may have a little bit of a better flavor on what we think absorption will be next year by then. Got it. Okay. Well, best of luck, guys. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Michael Rehaut with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Hi, guys. This is Andrew Azzi in for Mike. Thank you for taking my question. Congrats on the quarter. I just wanted to- Yeah. Yeah, I just wanted to ask if you guys have put out maybe an absorption target that you're managing the business to, if there's maybe a level where if that, if it gets below that, you would get much more aggressive on incentives and discounts, and things like that. No, we haven't done that. You know, we manage all the communities and our divisions and markets individually, but we do not have any company-stated absorption pace. Got it. Thanks. And then, I'm not sure if you guys have alluded to how demand has been trending in October, and I'm just curious. I believe I heard the cancellation was 13%, which is similar to last quarter. Just given how impressive orders were this quarter and the entry-level exposure, I'm curious how cancellation rates have stayed so low. Yeah. Our cancellation rates last quarter was 16%, which is consistent with where we had been running, down quite a bit from what we were experiencing pre-COVID in the low- to mid-20% range. And I think that's, as we said in our prepared remarks, it's really a reflection of two things. One, we're selling later in the construction cycle so that the consumer can know what his interest rate is, and we can lock that, which is the primary factor, as well as people are starting to adjust to these higher rates. With regard to the sales pace we're seeing so far this month, October is actually up over the same period in September. Although, as we get later in the year, we start really being impacted by seasonality that happens towards the end of the year. We expect that to certainly start slowing down. But so far, October has started out very well for us. Thank you. I appreciate that. The next question is a follow-up from Alex Barron with Housing Research. Please go ahead. Yeah, thank you. I was curious if you guys would be able to share some of your average statistics for, you know, what a typical consumer looks like, and maybe even break it down into a Century Complete. Meaning, like, what's the average household income? What's the average FICO? What's the average down payment? You know, those types of things. I'd say, I think that, you know, we can look at providing something like that offline, as opposed to going into all the nitty-gritty details here, or we can look at putting something into one of our investor decks going forward in the future. Okay. That, I think that would be helpful. Main, main reason I'm asking is because I think, you know, there's this, there's this notion that, you know, how can a median household income afford a home today? And I think the answer is, it's not your typical median household income buying homes. I think it's more like the upper, you know, quintile or something. So I think it'd be helpful for, you know, investors to see what the profile of a typical buyer today is. But, Yeah, we saw that in your piece today, Alex, so, you know, appreciate where you're coming from there, and Dave can, you know- Yeah, we'll take that into consideration. We have all those statistics. Dave could give you that. Got it. Thanks so much. Okay. This concludes our question and answer session. We will now turn the line back over to Dale for some brief closing remarks. Thank you, operator. To everyone on the call, thank you for your time today and interest in Century Communities. To our employees, thank you for your incredible efforts, dedication to Century, and commitment to our valued homebuyers. To our investors, we appreciate your continued support and look forward to speaking with you again next quarter and sharing our continued progress and outlook for 2024. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's press-