Good afternoon. Welcome to the Carvana Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Meg Kehan, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the investor relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The fourth quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q4, which can be found on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website. Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer, and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer. Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws, including but not limited to Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them whatsoever as a result of new developments or otherwise. Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial metrics. Unless otherwise specified, all references to GPU and SG&A will be to the non-GAAP metrics and all references to EBITDA will be to Adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our IR website. Now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie? Thanks, Meg, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. 10 years ago, in January 2013, we launched Carvana in Atlanta, Georgia. We were a passionate group of people who believed we could build something new in the world that we would be proud of. What we aimed to do was simple: to change the way people buy and sell cars. There were one million little reasons to bet against us, and most people who cared enough to even be aware of what we were trying to do would have. There were two big reasons why we believed we could do it. One, there was room for new offering that customers would love. Two, we were a scrappy group who cared and were ready to fight for our dream. We stand here 10 years later in a place it was hard to imagine from where we started. We built an offering customers do love. We have brought that offering to over 300 markets across the country. We have bought and sold cars in a whole new way to millions of people, and we've laid the foundations to buy and sell many millions more. The big things overpowered the little things. This story skips a lot of time, and as a result, it skips a lot of detail and gives too simple an impression. It feels linear. The truth is, there were a lot of ups and downs along the way. There were high highs, and there were low lows. There were fun days, and there were hard days. I think the truth of building something new in the world is that there are usually more hard days than there are easy days, even though it doesn't sound that way in the stories. This is still true. Progress is rarely linear. 2022 reminded us of that again. What happened in 2022? The story is straightforward. One, we came into the year positioned for growth similar to what we'd experienced in the prior nine years. Two, after the pandemic snarled automotive supply chains and historically rapidly rising interest rates combined to dramatically impact the affordability of used cars. Three, rising interest rates and market sentiment drove a significant shift in our priorities away from growth and toward profitability. Four, this combined to lead to markedly lower volumes than we had positioned for. As a result, we've been carrying excess costs. 2022 had a lot of hard days. We're a scrappy group. Hard days aren't always the worst thing in the world for scrappy people. Scrappy people find a way. We're finding a way. The hard days are making us better, and we're doing our best work right now. As part of this work, we have three major milestones that we are marching toward. The first step is to drive the business to break even Adjusted EBITDA. This is our current goal, and we will discuss the key drivers of this goal more in these remarks. The second step is to drive the business to significant positive unit economics. Break even Adjusted EBITDA is a milestone, but it is not our goal. Our goal is positive free cash flow. The third step is to return to growth. Since launching in 2013, we have made capital investments of more than $4 billion building the nation's largest used vehicle inspection and reconditioning infrastructure, first-party automotive logistics network, and last-mile automotive delivery network. We believe the investments we've already made lay the groundwork for not only significant growth in the future, but significantly more efficient growth that is significantly profitable. Today, we're focused on the first step. We are well on our way with high visibility to the progress we expect to make. First, we expect to continue our SG&A expense reduction plan by reducing quarterly SG&A expenses by approximately $100 million in aggregate over the next two quarters. This will complete over a $1 billion annualized SG&A cost reduction since the first quarter of 2022. We expect these expense reductions to be broad-based across all large SG&A expense components. Importantly, we do not expect a future reduction force to be part of this plan. Second, we expect our weekly retail unit sales volume to stabilize relative to the declines we saw in the second half of 2022 as the seasonal headwinds we faced at that time transition to seasonal tailwinds. Stabilizing weekly retail unit sales volume will allow our SG&A expense savings to catch up to retail unit volumes, allowing us to demonstrate SG&A leverage that was elusive during periods of retail unit declines. Third, we expect a substantial reduction in our inventory size, which we accelerated in Q4, to lead to significant gains in retail GPU. While we don't expect to see meaningful gains on retail GPU in Q1, we expect to see the benefits of reducing inventory size become apparent in the following quarters. The progress we are making shows up first in operational metrics and then flows into financial metrics later as those operational efficiencies get rolled out and utilized across the business. Across all operating groups, the operational progress we have already made and are continuing to make is significant. In logistics, our average delivery distance is down 25% since early 2022. In market operations, we have built scheduling systems that currently allow us to pair over one out of three retail deliveries with the vehicle pickup, up from one out of 14 retail sales just one year ago. In customer care, our advocates are spending 40% less time on the phone per sale than they were in early 2022. Our vending machine pickup rates have more than doubled since the start of last year, with 40% of our customers nationwide now picking up their car at a vending machine, even though we only have vending machines in a subset of our markets. Importantly, we have done all this while improving the quality of our customer experiences over the last six months. As is often the case when working through these transitions and when the operational progress is beginning to convert into financial progress, there are some one-time items and extrapolations that need to be made to really see the quality of the progress we are currently making. These are outlined in the shareholder letter. Mark will provide some color on them as well. The progress is really beginning to show up. This will continue to get clearer and to require less explanation over time, as we expect the combination of these three factors to lead to significantly improved Adjusted EBITDA profitability over the next two quarters. 2022 was a hard year, and we still have a lot of hard work in front of us to get to where we want to be, but we have a clear plan, and we are executing. This is still a 40 million unit a year market on average. We still have just 1% market share. We are still a passionate, scrappy group who cares and who's ready to fight for our dream. Our customers do love our offering. We have built the capabilities and laid the foundations to buy and sell cars with millions and millions of customers, and there are still a million little reasons to bet against us. We expect the big things to overpower the little things just as they have in the past. We are firmly on the path to building the nation's largest and most profitable automotive retailer into achieving our mission of changing the way people buy cars. The march continues. Mark. Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. Our results in 2022 were driven by numerous external factors as well as our internal decisions made to shift priorities toward profitability. We came into 2022 significantly overbuilt for the volume we ultimately realized. Through the year, we have been executing our plan to drive profitability by steadily reducing expenses, normalizing inventory size, and executing profitability initiatives that make us more efficient, more resilient, and more flexible. For the full year 2022, retail units sold totaled 412,296, a decrease of 3% year-over-year. While this was the first year that our retail units sold declined year-over-year, 2022 marked our ninth consecutive year of market share gains against a backdrop of double-digit industry declines. Revenue totaled $13.604 billion in 2022, an increase of 6% year-over-year, marking our ninth consecutive year of revenue growth. We finished the year as the second largest seller of used vehicles in the country for the third consecutive year. The scale that we have already achieved and the timeline on which we have achieved it demonstrates the long-standing strength of our customer offering. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our remaining reno-remarks on fourth quarter results with a particular focus on sequential changes and the unique items impacting the quarter, as well as our near-term outlook. Our long-term financial goal is to generate significant net income and free cash flow. In service of this goal, in the near term, our management team is focused on driving progress on a set of non-GAAP financial metrics that are inputs into this long-term goal. In order to provide clear visibility into our progress, beginning in Q4, we are reporting two new non-GAAP metrics, non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP SG&A expense, that adjust for certain non-cash and non-recurring revenues and expenses. We are also updating our Adjusted EBITDA definition to exclude revenue from Root warrants as well as share-based compensation and restructuring expenses. We provide more detail on these metrics in the supplemental financial tables available on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website and in our Form 10-K. In the fourth quarter, retail units sold totaled 86,977, a decrease of 23% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Our sequential decline in retail units sold was only slightly larger than the industry's sequential decline of 12%, despite several actions we are taking to increase near-term profitability, including, one, normalizing inventory size, two, reducing advertising, three, proactively adjusting to increases in benchmark interest rates, and four, continuing to focus on executing our profitability initiatives. Total revenue was $2.8 billion in Q4, a decrease of 24% year-over-year and 16% sequentially, approximately in line with retail units sold. Non-GAAP total GPU was $2,667 in Q4 versus $3,870 in Q3. Total GPU in Q4 was driven by several unique items across the retail, wholesale, and other components. Non-GAAP retail GPU was $632 in Q4 versus $1,267 in Q3. Retail GPU was impacted by a $52 million, or $598 per unit, adjustment to our retail inventory allowance, which was primarily driven by elevated industry-wide retail depreciation rates and higher than normalized inventory size relative to sales volumes. Other sequential changes in retail GPU were primarily driven by higher retail depreciation rates, partially offset by wider spreads between retail prices and acquisition prices and lower cost of sales. In addition to the allowance adjustment, retail GPU was also impacted by carrying a higher than normalized inventory size relative to sales, which resulted in longer turn times. Longer turn times lead to higher vehicle depreciation, which has a negative impact on retail GPU, other things being equal. One way to quantify the impact of extended turn times is to isolate retail GPU for vehicles sold within 90 days of the acquisition date. These vehicles realize approximately $600 per unit higher retail GPU in Q4 compared to retail units in aggregate. Non-GAAP wholesale GPU was $552 in Q4 versus $682 in Q3. Wholesale GPU co-included a combined $103 per unit impact due to a $5 million adjustment to our wholesale inventory allowance and a $4 million loss on certain retail vehicles we sold in the wholesale market in the quarter. Sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by these impacts and lower seasonal wholesale marketplace volume. Non-GAAP other GPU was $1,483 in Q4 versus $1,921 in Q3. Other GPU was primarily impacted by a shift in the timing of a sale of a pool of loans to Ally from December to January to align with the upsize and extension of our forward flow purchase agreement. We estimate this shift in timing reduced other gross profit by $42 million or $483 per retail unit sold based on the actual sales price of the loans we realized in January less incremental interest income we earned on the loans in December. In Q4, we made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses for the second consecutive quarter, reducing non-GAAP SG&A expense by $60 million sequentially following a greater than $60 million sequential reduction in Q3. These expense reductions were broad-based, including advertising, compensation and benefits, logistics, and other. While we significantly reduced SG&A expense over the past two quarters, we have not yet meaningfully levered SG&A expense per retail unit sold because retail units sold have declined at a pace similar to SG&A expense reductions. As Ernie discussed, we expect our weekly retail unit sales volume to stabilize relative to the declines we saw in the second half of 2022 as seasonal headwinds transition to seasonal tailwinds. We expect stabilizing retail unit sales to allow our SG&A expense savings to catch up to retail unit volumes, leading to SG&A leverage. Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was a loss of $291 million or 10.1% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by a total of $103 million due to the unique retail, wholesale, and other GPU items described above. As a result of the decline in trading prices of our securities by the end of the fourth quarter, we recorded a goodwill impairment expense of $847 million. The goodwill impairment was not related to changes in our long-term expectations for our business or the operations of any prior acquisitions. As we discussed previously, our goal is to manage the business to achieve over 4,000 total GPU and significant Adjusted EBITDA profitability at current, higher or lower volume levels. Focusing in on Q1, 2023, we currently expect the following. On retail units, we currently expect a sequential reduction in retail units sold in Q1 compared to Q4 as we continue to normalize our inventory size, optimize marketing spend, and make progress on our profitability initiatives. On GPU, we currently expect a sequential increase in total GPU in Q1 compared to Q4. We expect retail GPU to increase in Q1 due to multiple offsetting effects. First, we are quickly reducing our inventory size by purchasing fewer retail vehicles. Purchasing fewer retail vehicles means fewer low-age units are added to the website, which other things being equal, increases the average age of our inventory and of retail units sold and reduces retail GPU. At the same time, we expect our lower inventory size to lead to a retail inventory allowance adjustment benefit in Q1, leading total Q1 retail GPU to be higher than Q4. We also expect a sequential increase in other GPU in Q1 following the shift in the timing of loan sales from December to January previously discussed. On SG&A, we are currently targeting an aggregate of approximately $1 million reduction in quarterly non-GAAP SG&A expense by Q2 2023 compared to Q4 2022 as we continue to execute our plan across all areas of the business. On December 31st, we had approximately $3.9 billion in total liquidity resources, including $1.9 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including more than $1.1 billion of real estate acquired with ADESA. We also ended the quarter with approximately 1.3 million annual units of inspection and reconditioning center capacity at full utilization, including ADESA locations. Over the last several years, we've made significant investments into building out one of the auto industry's largest and most expansive inspection and reconditioning network. While we remain focused on more efficiently leveraging our existing footprint in the near term, we believe having access to this massive infrastructure positions us very well for growth with limited incremental investment in the future. Our liquidity position, production runway, and our clear and focused operating plan position us well to achieve our goal of driving positive cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer in the future. Thank you for your attention. We will now take questions. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question is from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Please go ahead. Hi. Good afternoon, Ernie. Hey, Sharon. You were talking really fast. I think you said 40% of vehicles were picked up at vending machines. I think it was in the fourth quarter. I didn't catch what that compared to maybe relative to a year ago. I guess, were you incentivizing to get to that number? It also begs the question kind of, you know, how high could that go? What is the kind of trade-off in terms of GPU when you get a customer to come to a vending machine for pickup? I noticed in the shareholder letter, you also mentioned starting to offer pickup at non-vending machine locations. I guess this is a long question to just ask. Are we seeing some sort of evolution in the model which would be kind of more what I would think of as an omni-channel model versus a pure e-com? Sure. First, apologies for the fast talking. That is my habit. In the prepared remarks, I didn't compare it to anything. It is 40 nationwide, at vending machines, even though we only have vending machines in a subset of markets. That is roughly double since early 2022. We are testing other pickup options as well, and we are incentivizing customers to do that. What I would say there is I think across the entire business, we're testing all kinds of opportunities to decrease our operational costs and then see what the impact is to both customer speed of getting them a car and also customer experience. I think this is one of many areas where we're seeing really strong results there. Can I just ask a follow-up? When you do customer research, I mean, how important is delivery in what the customers want? I mean, it would seem transparency, you know, quality of car, the car they're getting, all of that is very important. Is delivery really high on the list? I think it depends on the customer. I think that's why we've kind of structured the system to give them their option. I think all of those things are important, and I think the easiest thing that we can measure is in aggregate, how customers are responding to the sum total of their experience. You know, we are talking now about the vending machine, but there's many other examples there that I'll repeat that I kind of, you know, spoke about in my prepared remarks. You know, delivery distance is also down 25% since early 2022. We talked about activity pairings. That can be a bit of a confusing one to make sure that you're understanding. We've got obviously many customers that are buying cars from us. We have many customers that are selling cars to us. Activity pairing is building the logic into our scheduler that allows us to ensure that when a customer leaves a hub or a vending machine, they can complete two transactions in a single path, which is obviously a lot more efficient. That's gone from about one in 14 customers to approximately one out of three customers in the last year. We're making gains all over the place. We are seeing that really show up in operational gains first, which then I think you're starting to get a peek into the impact they'll have financially, but that does take more time 'cause we tend to roll these out in markets. We get a sense for the impact to both customer experience and cost and efficiency, and then we roll them out nationwide, and then we kind of are able to realize the dollar gains thereafter. I think, you know, you'll probably start to see more of those gains over the next two quarters, which is why we're feeling really good about our cost reduction plan over the next two quarters. We've been doing all of that and many more examples that would fit under the same umbrella, but would take different forms in every group. We've seen customer experiences go up in the last six months. I think overall, we're really excited about the way that's playing out. We still have a lot of work to do, but the teams are doing a great job. Okay. Last question for me. I know you said you're working towards EBITDA breakeven at current volumes. What's your line of sight on timing on that? As fast as possible. I think we're going to be moving as quickly as we possibly can. We gave, I think, some hopefully helpful guide rails in there around driving down SG&A dollars by $100 million over the next two quarters. I think Mark spoke quite a bit about some of the GPU visibility that we have that is very high. You know, something that is imposing a very significant cost across GPU right now is the choice to drive down our inventory rapidly. We're very confident that's the right choice for the business. Sales volumes are low relative to the inventory that we're carrying, and therefore, our turn times are high. Especially in a high depreciation environment, it's important to get those two things into balance. The transition from too large of inventory to the right size of inventory means the turn times are even longer. That showed up in lower GPU in the quarter and in an allowance that we're taking as more of those cars that we expect to sell in the future are likely to have negative margins. You know, that's a transitory cost. You know, if you look at the rate at which we're selling cars relative to the cars that we have in inventory, it's a much better number. The transition is expensive, so I think there's a lot of visibility there. Mark also spoke a bit about the visibility we have in finance, as we had a loan sale timing shift in Q4 that was costly. I think there's hopefully a lot of building blocks there that will give you a sense. Our goal is heads down sprint, and we'll get there as quickly as we can. Okay. Than k you. Thank you. The next question is from Chris Bottiglieri with Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. The first one is, in Q1, are you still taking provisions to increase the inventory allowance adjustment that's causing pressure to your field GPU and wholesale? Is there a way to frame out how much is left? Like what percentage of units are 90 days or older and are still in inventory today? What's normal look like? I'd imagine this happens routinely, but just give us context for what's left. Sure. I mean, I think there's a couple different ways to think about that. One, I wouldn't say there's any concept of what's left. I think, you know, yeah, to set the allowance on 12/31, you know, we looked at the cars that we had on balance sheet on 12/31 and then, you know, we formed expectations about the cars that we're going to sell at a loss and at what level those cars were going to sell at a loss, and then we recorded that allowance on that basis. You know, I do think some of the things that benefit the inventory allowance is inventory size. I think, you know, shrinking inventory, getting inventory more in line with, more in line with sales volume. you know, those are certainly beneficial from the standpoint of, you know, retail inventory allowance. As you sort of alluded to, you know, a retail inventory allowance is something that's always in our results. You know, we adjust our allowance every month and, you know, a retail inventory allowance is reflected in our results every quarter. It just happened to be particularly large on 12/31 in light of the dynamics that we saw in Q4 with much higher than normalized inventory size, and also, very, elevated industry-wide retail depreciation rates. That's why it had an outsized effect on Q4. I think, you know, just, you know, to take that point home, I do think, you know, we've made really strong moves in normalizing our inventory size in Q4 and so far in Q1. You know, our inventory size is much closer to a normal size relative to sales volumes than it certainly was in Q4. You know, we do think that over time, that will flow into positive tailwinds for retail GPU as we called out throughout our materials. Gotcha. Okay, thanks. Then just a bigger picture question if I can squeeze one more in. When you're speaking of these profitability at current levels, are you extrapolating market share of your immature markets to like some natural run rate of the mature business? If I take your national market share compared to Atlanta or some of their early market at similar point in time, was Atlanta profitable on that penetration? Like, I guess what gives you the visibility to achieve profitability at such a low volume level? I think personally you'll get well above that over time, so I'm not sure why this profitability level frankly matters in the near term. Just curious how you're thinking about all that. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think we mean that in the simplest way it can be interpreted, which is, you know, we believe that we can achieve EBITDA positive at the current volumes that we're at across the entire company. We're not extrapolating to kind of market shares that we have in some of our more mature markets. You know, we're making a ton of progress on SG&A, and there's room for a ton more progress, frankly, given all the operational gains that we're seeing. And there's a lot of visibility in GPU progress as well. I think, you know, this last year has been a massive change in priorities for the company. The world changed on us very, very quickly and we shifted our priorities very, very quickly. Undoubtedly, that's been a difficult transition. But I think there's no doubt that it's leading to a more efficient company. I think that is not yet fully showing up in the numbers, but there's no doubt it's showing up very clearly in the operational numbers and we expect it to show up in the numbers in the not too distant future. We believe that we can get to EBITDA positivity, you know, at current volumes and to significantly positive EBITDA at current volumes. Then we obviously expect to continue to grow from there and to get, you know, even more EBITDA positive on a unit basis from there as well. I think, you know, we've got a lot of work in front of us, but we've got a lot of great visibility as well. Gotcha. Thanks, Ernie. Thank you. The next question is from Rajat Gupta with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks for taking the question. Ernie, I think the elephant in the room is, you know, the $600 million or so of interest expense. Even if you get to EBITDA breakeven, you know, at some point next year or later next year, you know, you also need to add more debt at some stage to continue to just pay the ongoing additional debt. Is there anything you can do or are considering to reduce that burden? Perhaps some form of restructuring that can take place, you know, leveraging the real estate, and find some sort of a middle ground with the bondholders. You know, just curious, you know, what level of engagement you've had there, any broader thoughts on that? Thanks. I have a follow-up. Thanks. Sure. Well, I mean, yeah, I think, our plan, we try to break into three steps. Step one is get to EBITDA positive. You know, we've got to have mile markers along the way. Step two is get to meaningfully positive EBITDA per unit, you know, positive unit economics. Step three is to start to grow. And, you know, we believe that with that plan, you know, we have believed and continue to believe, that we have the opportunity to, you know, run that plan and to not need to raise additional capital. You know, obviously the question about whether or not we'll raise capital in the future is largely a function of the speed at which we drive down SG&A, the speed at which we drive up GPU and the speed at which we're able to also drive up units once we bottom. You know, subtle changes in the shape of those curves can change the answer quite a bit. You know, our plan is to not need to raise additional capital, but obviously, you know, we'll be paying attention. We'll do what we need to do that's right for the business. I think we have access to capital in many forms. You know, we've obviously got a lot of real estate that's very high quality. We have approximately $2 billion of real estate, approximately half in ADESA and half kind of original Carvana real estate. The majority of that is inspection centers, which are, you know, high quality, financeable properties. We've got a lot of other assets as well and, you know, we've got capacity to put in, you know, more secured debt. We've got capacity to put in more unsecured debt. Obviously, in the future, if we chose and we believed it was the right choice, we could raise equity. I think we have a lot of options if we choose that that's the right path for the company. Today we're focused on the operating plan. That's got our full attention and we're marching that to hit the numbers that we've outlined. Got it. That's clear. Maybe just on SG&A, you know, you talked about the additional $100 million in reduction in the first half year. You also mentioned coming across different buckets. I think one area where I believe you've not seen a meaningful reduction yet is the other SG&A, you know, seemingly a bigger fixed component of your SG&A. Is a good chunk of that $100 million coming from that particular line item? I think you mentioned also that you don't expect more forced reductions or forced reductions. Just curious, like, if you could help us understand, you know, where that $100 million is coming from. Thanks. Sure. Yeah. We talked a little bit about that in the letter. The. We do expect the SG&A reductions, the, you know, the $100 million in aggregate, in quarterly expense reductions that we're targeting over the next two quarters to come across the major line items. In that, I would include, you know, payroll. I would include, you know, advertising, logistics, and the other expense bucket. I do think there's. You know, we certainly see opportunities to reduce other SG&A expenses, including in categories that you may traditionally think of as fixed. You know, I think we, you know, have numerous projects ongoing to just be more efficient in our corporate and technology expenses. you know, I think there's, you know, many, many areas across that component of SG&A where we're very focused on efficiency and do expect to gain savings from that component as part of our plan over the next two quarters. Got it. Thanks. I'll get back in queue. Thank you. The next question is from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead. Thanks a lot, and good afternoon. Just to follow up on the last question. Even if you do hit your break-even EBITDA goal, you're still carrying $100 million+ in CapEx and $600 million in interest expense, so you'd be burning $700 million or so in cash. Your liquidity does support that for a period of time, but eventually you'll run out of time. How do you expect to address that conundrum? Sure. I think as we discussed, you know, step one of the plan is break even Adjusted EBITDA, and step two is to go beyond that. Step three is to grow. You know, that's undoubtedly a milestone in the plan, but is not the plan. We think we've got a lot of visibility beyond that. As we discussed, we're focused to hit that plan and we believe that if we hit it in the ways that we're aiming to hit it, we've got a real shot at not requiring additional capital. If we're wrong, then we have lots of ways to go out and get additional capital. Got it. Secondly, as it relates to the loan sales to Ally, could you help us understand the margins on those under the new agreement relative to the old agreement and whether there's still substantial loans on the balance sheet at this point in time relative to the $1.3 billion that you had at the end of the quarter? Sure. I think, you know, first order, you know, we completed the deal with Ally. It's the seventh year in that relationship. That's something that we're extremely proud of. We think it's been a great program for both of us. They've certainly been there for us in difficult times, including recently. They were there for us in COVID, and we would like to think that we've been great partners to them as well, especially in better times, and that they've had access to high quality loans that are generally outperforming similar credit quality loans across that entire time. I think that's been a great partnership for us. I think, as we headed to, you know, the end of the year, you know, we had a bunch of loans that we were looking to sell. We were also getting that renewal done. It made sense to kind of complete the renewal first and push that over the year. We had approximately $1 billion of extra loans that shifted over year-end. As part of that deal, as you'd imagine, you know, Ally does have more spread than they've historically had. That spread is reflective of market conditions, which is kind of the structure that we generally have in our deal. Then we take those spreads and, you know, we pass them on and that enables us to earn similar finance GPUs to what we've earned in the past. I think that's been a great deal for us. It gives us certainty of execution. They've been a great partner for a long time and we couldn't be happier with it. Then in addition, you know, today we also closed our first securitization of the year. You know, we'll continue to operate a multi-channel strategy. You know, we plan to catch up on loan sales in the first half of this year. Thank you. The next question is from Zachary Fadem with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks, guys. This is Sam Reid pinch hitting for Zach Fadem. First big picture, kind of what's the assumption for industry volumes that you're embedding in your Q1 unit outlook? Does that sequential pullback you're looking for mirror what you're seeing across the industry? Thanks, I've got one other industry follow-up. Sure. Yeah, let me start a little bigger picture. I think, you know, we're now a 10-year-old company, and I think for, Basically for nine years of our life, well, we were in a reasonably stable environment. We were certainly in a stable environment for 7.5 Years of our life, and then we went through COVID, but we still had somewhat similar, you know, used vehicle sales volume at the industry level. I think for the last year, we saw those volumes at the industry level drop by, you know, on the order of 10%, give or take. I certainly think that has correlated with a bunch of choices that we've made to shrink up and to focus on profitability, and I think basically with more pressure on independents, even relative to franchise dealers. Undoubtedly, the last year has been a, you know, much slower year for us. It's the first year where we actually shrunk by 3%. You know, we've grown very, very quickly in all previous years. So I think the correlation is there, where when the market was shrinking, you know, we were shrinking, and when the market was stable, we were growing. I do think that that is more correlation than it is direct causation. You know, the market moving up or down by 10% relative to all the growth rates that we've seen in every year of our life prior to this year would be very, very small, you know, relative to how quickly we were growing. I think, of course, we always have, you know, something of an embedded view around, you know, what's gonna happen at the industry level. We generally don't think that that's the biggest driver of our success. I think it happens to have correlated because many things occurred, most notably interest rates shooting up and car prices shooting up over the last year, that had a real impact on the industry in general, but us in particular. I would say probably the best way to evaluate that is, you know, we generally are looking at the market being flattish go forward. We also, I don't think are ever speaking in terms that are precise enough to where likely movements in the macro industry level sales volumes are that likely to impact us super dramatically. We would expect them to flow through to our results in the same way that they impact the industry in sum total. I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question? No, it's just another industry question here. You know, it kind of follows on advertising and volumes. You know, you guys have done a good job of pulling back on advertising, but what are you seeing kind of across the industry? Is there a similar pullback that's taking place across your peer set? As you pull back on advertising, you know, can you compare and contrast your share of voice today versus where it might have been before you started to pull back? Sure. Well, let's start with the maybe peers in automotive. 'Cause I think the automotive world, yeah, there's been a lot of interesting things happening over the last year and a half that, you know, are probably more distorted than any period that I can remember in my career. When I say distorted, I just mean abnormal. There's been a lot of things that have been abnormal. You know, we went through this period where cars very rapidly appreciated, and for the most part, consumers were in a good enough spot to where that didn't necessarily impact industry level sales volumes that much. In 2022, as we saw, you know, cars start to slowly come down, but rates go up. We saw affordability stay in a pretty similar spot, we saw the industry generally get softer. I think franchise dealers have done incredibly well through the last two years. I think if you kind of graph their, you know, pick your kind of bottom line metric, to make it comparable to ours, if you graph their EBITDA margins over, you know, the last 20 years, you would see extreme outliers over the last couple years. I think that, you know, while new volumes have gone down, you know, new margins have gone up by more than the volumes have gone down. There's been a lot of profitability there. I think, given how high car prices are, they've been able to convert many would-be new car buyers into used car buyers. They've had an advantage supply of used cars as they've been returned off lease. Those off lease returns were priced in a completely different vehicle price environment, so they're able to acquire those cars at residuals that are far below the market value, you know, even though historically, on average, residuals roughly approximated the market value. I think for franchise dealers, it's been a great environment, and I think many of them have not been super aggressively pulling back if we speak kind of an aggregate over the last year and a half. I think for independents, there's probably two categories there as well. There's those that were buying strictly from auction and those that were buying elsewhere. I think for those buying strictly from auction, it's been a very tough environment because, you know, the auction is a place where there's also been, you know, dramatic changes over the last couple of years. It's been hard to acquire cars that carry a normal relative to history margin there. I think for those that have acquired cars from customers at meaningful scale, I think the last couple of years have actually been somewhat average from a profitability perspective. So I think, you know, most of those retailers have probably played kind of a relatively average game from an advertising perspective over the last couple of years. I think those things are starting to change a little bit as we saw the market soften a little bit in 2022. We've recently seen the market be reasonably strong as it relates to changes in prices early this year. I think a lot of dealers probably came into the year with low inventories and weren't feeling super confident after November and December. You know, there's normally kind of a seasonal inventory build and car price appreciation around this time of year when tax money is coming, and we've definitely seen that this year. Then I think there's another peer set as well, which is kind of, you know, growth companies and technology companies out there. I think that peer set has undoubtedly pulled back materially on marketing. I think the moves there have probably been, you know, much more dramatic. We are certainly pulling back pretty dramatically on marketing. I think, you know, you can see that in our results in Q4, and there's certainly more of that to come. You know, we're in a unique environment where GPUs are lower than they've been, in the recent past and kind of all else constant. That means fewer transactions make sense to acquire. We've also focused, you know, almost exclusively on profitability over the last year. That means many transactions that we would've, acquired because we believed that they made sense over a longer term, time horizon, we have not been acquiring more recently. The customer responsiveness is different, in this environment. So we've been retesting all of our different marketing channels, in many ways, most effectively through our many markets. You know, we'll use our markets as laboratories to turn on and off different marketing channels. To try to assess what we think the effectiveness is of any given marketing channel. I think that we found that in this environment, in most cases, there's room for us to probably pull back quite a bit on marketing, 'cause we're not getting the return that we've got in the past. So we're doing that. We're doing that purposefully. You know, we're making sure we roll out those tests and we do it in a way that doesn't derail the entire business and cause it to get out of balance. I think that there's real economic opportunity there for us to pull back on marketing. So we've been doing that and we'll likely do that. When we do that, we are much more likely to pull back in direct marketing channels than we are in brand channels. I think, you know, one of the reasons that we're able to efficiently pull back on marketing spend today is 'cause we've been able to build a high quality brand over a long period of time. We wanna be careful that we preserve that and continue to invest in that brand. I do think there's opportunities in these direct channels, and I think you're starting to see that show up in some of our results. That was a long answer to a question you partially asked. I hope it was helpful. But that's how we're thinking about all that. No, much appreciated. Thanks so much. Thank you. The next question is from Winnie Dong with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Hi, thanks so much for taking my question. I was wondering if you can give us an update on sort of the integration of ADESA and where you are with footprint integration relative to the logistical savings that can be achieved for the benefit of GPU. In your prepared remark mention, you know, getting back to that $4,000 in GPU. I was wondering if you can frame it around, you know, what you think the timeframe is to achieving that. That's my first question, and then I have a follow-up. Thanks. Great. Sure. I think, you know, we're making a ton of progress with the integration of ADESA. ADESA has 56, you know, incredible sites around the country. We currently have 75% of the cars that we buy from customers that we plan to sell wholesale that are now landing at ADESA properties. That's a really significant change from obviously where we were, you know, six months ago or certainly 12 months ago when we... You know, prior to the acquisition. That's very helpful from an efficiency perspective. It means those cars are on the ground in a location, where they can get rapidly inspected and sold. It means that the transportation to those locations is much less than it would have historically been because we're closer to ADESA. You'll start to see that flowing through in our wholesale margin. You know, that footprint is incredible and we really look forward to the gains that we'll continue to get in wholesale, in logistics, and ultimately in reconditioning over time. I think a lot of those gains will come, you know, more when we get to step three of the equation, which is turning growth back up. In the meantime, the ADESA team has been doing a great job. It's been a tough couple of years for auction businesses. I think, you know, post-pandemic has been a very odd time for the auction business in general. They've been doing a great job. They've got a great plan. We feel good about the path that they're on. We're excited there. As it relates to the timeframe to getting back to 4,000 GPU, you know, I apologize for not being more precise in this response, but I think we tried to give some building blocks that we think are pretty big. I'll repeat some of those. If you kind of, you know, start with our GPU that was at about 2,600, you look at kind of the retail allowance, which we obviously don't expect to be a recurring item, you know, that would get you up $600. If you look at our wholesale allowance, which is the same concept but exists in our wholesale inventory, that's another $100. If you look at the shift in our loan sale timing, that's just shy of $500. Mark gave a helpful stat that talked about our sales of cars that are less than 90 days aged in Q4, which would have been an additional $600 on top of all of that. You know, we still have significant room in our non-vehicle COGS. We called out that there was probably $600 of possible gains there, you know, in Q1 or Q2 relative to what we had achieved in the past. We probably have $300 or $400 of additional gains there to be had. We're getting those gains more slowly, as a result of shrinking our inventory than we might have otherwise if we weren't shrinking our inventory. Shrinking our inventory means that we're buying fewer cars, and it means that the overhead of the inspection centers is spread between fewer cars. There's some efficiency impacts when you're buying fewer cars, but that's also transitory. I think that's a big opportunity for us, and there are others. I think the opportunity is all there. It's very clear. We just have executing to do and we'll go get it. Great. Thanks so much. I was wondering if you can also comment on sort of like the go-forward strategy in terms of mix of inventory. I think you had previously indicated that you're going on a go-forward basis, going to tail it towards lower price inventory, just given the current macro conditions. Can you give us a sense if that something's doing the plan, you know, amid your plan to reduce inventory? Thanks. Sure. Yeah, I can take that one. Just to set the stage a little bit. The, you know, the way we typically approach inventory mix is, you know, by evaluating what our customers are shopping for on the site and balancing that against, you know, what we're seeing in the market in terms of what customers or other suppliers are selling. The combination of those two things, you know, dictate what mix of inventory we end up putting on the site. I would say, you know, we've talked a lot about inventory on this call, and certainly, our inventory has been too large relative to sales volume. We were working very ambitiously to correct that. In terms of mix, I wouldn't say there's any particular patterns to call out. You know, I think we'll continue to evaluate as we look forward from, you know, where we are here in Q1 and just, you know, be reading the demand signals, reading the supply signals, and doing our best to balance the two of those. Right now, I don't think that points to any particular shift that's worth calling out at this time. Okay, great. Thank you so much. The next question is from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to ask if I could, when do you think that you would be in a position to kinda switch back to offense with respect to taking market share again? You know, would it be potentially third quarter when the SG&A reductions would have been substantively made? If it is, you know, do you need to basically start growing SG&A at an accelerated pace to take market share? Do you think there's enough muscle that you could just be more productive, I guess, at a lower run rate moving forward? Sure. I think, it's the third step in the plan right now. The reason it's the third step in the plan is that I do think, you know, we were one of the more aggressive growth companies out there for, you know, the entirety of our life, basically from, you know, when we started 10 years ago until about a year ago. That requires an alignment of thousands of people with priorities and what's being, you know, done and how we're working on things and how we make decisions. I think that it's a lot of work and it's very difficult to turn that, you know, quickly and focus, you know, completely on profitability, which is what we've done over the last 12 months. There are definitely some, I would say, transition costs, you know, to just, you know, get thousands of people aligned on a new set of goals, that we're all equally excited about and that we have a lot of work to do and a lot of gains to be had. I think we paid those kind of fixed costs to transition. I think as a result, you know, we'll probably hang out here with priorities that look more like our current priorities, for a little longer than might even be kind of optimal given what the market is putting in front of us, just because it is expensive to have these big priority changes. I don't know exactly when that'll be. I think even over the last, you know, three or four months, we've learned a lot as we've gone. You know, many of these things that we do, we outline projects that we think make sense, and then we roll them out, and then we learn what the reality is. They have some impacts to customer experience, they have some impacts to customer conversion, they have some impacts to our underlying costs, and they suggest an optimal path forward as it relates to the balance of the way that we pull those levers and the volume that we sell. I think, you know, what we've seen over the last three or four months is more of our projects are probably having bigger operational gains than we may have kind of hoped for, but they're also pushing in the direction of fewer sales. You know, that's where we've aggressively shifted in the last several months toward a smaller inventory. We plan to kind of catch and bottom at a smaller level of sales than we probably would have imagined even six months ago. I think we still have learning to do 'cause there's still many of these projects in our backlog that we're rolling out. I don't think we know exactly what the answer to that question is. But I don't think it's obvious it has to be a super long time, and I think when it's time for growth, you know, we're gonna head into growth a much more efficient company. We're gonna head into growth a company that knows exactly how to do that. We're gonna head into growth a company that has infrastructure advantage that is materially different than the infrastructure advantage we had, you know, when we were growing last time. I think that'll be an exciting time. It's not obvious it's that far away, but I don't think we yet know exactly when it is. And for now, we're gonna keep our heads down on the plan that we outlined. Got it. If I could just quickly follow up on one other angle was EBITDA. For this year, you know, I was getting to, you know, EBITDA loss in the $400 million-$600 million range for 2023, that's basically like a slight decline in units, you know, low 3,000s in total GPU, SG&A improvements like you've discussed, kind of a $1 billion+ of cash burn if you include the interest expense. I didn't know if you'd care to kind of comment on any of that or any key drivers that could give upside or downside to consider. I would suggest reading our shareholder letter. I think we talk a lot about some of the near-term drivers of profitability as well as a sort of broader way to think about our plan. I think that will most likely be helpful for, you know, trying to shed some light on our near-term expectations. Thank you. The next question is from Ron Josey with Citi. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks for taking the question. Hey, Ernie. Hey, Mark. I wanted to ask more about supply and just how you balance the supply reductions with demand and conversion rates, and wondering how the sort of conversion rates are trending. I'm assuming they're coming down simply because people might not have what they're looking for. Just historically, I understand inventory is coming down, just wondering on conversion there. Then maybe a flip side of the marketing questions. You know, Ernie, we've seen the reduced marketing investments. Just talk to us about any lessons learned in terms of maybe awareness or traffic as you pull back on advertising. I think you said some of it didn't have a positive or as positive an ROI. Maybe just talk about just inherent sort of awareness of Carvana, but you don't need to market as much going forward and maintain sort of the sales as they are. Thank you, guys. Yeah, thank you. Okay, sure. Let's start with the first question. I think, undoubtedly, you know, inventory impacts conversion. As inventory is reduced, we expect conversion to also be reduced and so sales to be reduced all else constant. I think the way that we can kind of try to think about that and reduce that to a math equation that is gonna kind of, you know, flow into the second question is we can basically say, okay, you know, given our estimates of inventory elasticity, what is the sales benefit of carrying a larger inventory? Then what is the depreciation cost of carrying a larger inventory? We can compare those two, and we can effectively get to a customer acquisition cost for those incremental transactions. You know, the way all that math works is, you know, you won at any given level of depreciation, you have kind of an optimal balance of inventory relative to sales, which shows up in a turn time goal. Then the way you kind of shift around that is when depreciation is higher, you wanna have a smaller inventory, and when depreciation is lower, you wanna have a larger inventory. I think, you know, we're in a. Right now we're actually kind of in a, you know, maybe even appreciating environment in the wholesale market. We've been for a year in a rapidly depreciating environment, and I think probably the smarter guess over the next year or two is that it'll be a depreciating environment on average because car prices are, you know, still elevated relative to other goods. That as well as the fact that we have, you know, until recently, had a large inventory relative to sales, both point in the same direction, which is the optimal inventory is smaller. As discussed earlier, that's costly, in terms of the margin that we realize as we're, as we're transitioning out of that large inventory and to some degree, it is also costly as it relates to sales. We can do all the math on that and try to make the smartest choices we can. I think, you know, we talked a lot on the way up about the positive feedback in the business. As the business gets bigger, it gets better. It is also true that when we are shrinking, that creates kind of negative feedback loops that we have to be mindful of, and make it a little bit harder. That's all taken into account as we build out our plans and, you know, calculate what we think is the best set of moves in this environment, given our current priorities. I think the impacts are exactly as you'd expect directionally, and then I hope that was helpful color in terms of the way that we think about it and the way that it impacts the business. On marketing, I would say, you know, there's a lot of potential learnings there. You know, we're in a pretty different world than we were two years ago. I think we ought to be careful to not extrapolate them as absolute truths. We have to evaluate what we're learning as things that are true in this environment. I think it is highly likely that our brand is materially stronger than it was a couple years ago. I think as we go through and we reevaluate various marketing channels, I think that does seem to be having an impact on what we think the ROI is of those various channels. You know, again, I reserve the right to kind of end up being wrong on that, but I think that's what the data looks like today. I think a general learning is it's important, you know, when you're growing fast and the business is rapidly changing to make sure that you revisit decisions that you previously made that might have been made under different contexts. I think that marketing looks like there may be some opportunities there as well, where under different contexts, there were choices that made more sense than they make under today's context. I think that so far, what we've learned has pushed us in the direction of lower marketing. Again, marketing is a. Marketing is a delicate thing because you're building a brand, which is a very hard to measure thing. And it's very important that you continue to build that brand. I think, you know, you wanna take care. It's, I think, easier to move with more conviction, in a more quantitative way when you're talking about direct channels because those have less of an immediate brand impact. They still have a brand impact because they show up in terms of extra transactions, and then those people that buy cars from me tell their friends and family about it. They have less brand impact than the brand channels. you know, we will be more careful with the brand channels, but we'll be careful in general, and we're definitely doing a lot of testing as we move down in total marketing spend. Thank you, Ernie. Appreciate it. Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garcia for any closing remarks. Perfect. Well, thank you everyone for joining the call. To everyone on Team Carvana, thank you so much for the work you guys are doing. This has been a tough year, undoubtedly. We've made huge strides, massive changes, a huge pivot in priorities. And I'm just always reminded of how much you care and how much you fight. This is a team of fighters. You guys have been fighting hard, and it is showing up. It's gonna keep showing up. We've still got some fighting left to do, but we're gonna do it. Thanks to all. We'll talk to you guys next quarter. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.