Greetings and welcome to the Diversey Holdings Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure today to introduce your host, Grant Graver, Investor Relations. Thank you, Grant. You may begin. Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Diversey's Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2021 Conference Call. With me today are Phil Wieland, our CEO, and Todd Herndon, our CFO. As a reminder, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements. Risk factors that may impact those statements and could cause actual future results to differ materially from currently projected results are described in this morning's press release and the reports we file with the SEC. The Company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements. Additionally, during today's call, the company will discuss certain non-GAAP measures and make references to certain supplemental data, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures and referenced supplemental data can be found on our website at ir.diversey.com and in our most recent annual report. Now I will pass the call over to Phil. Thank you, Grant, and good morning to all of you joining us. There are several areas that I would like to highlight this morning, as well as providing some additional context regarding our outlook and how we see our company navigating these unique times. Specifically, I'd like to highlight our results, provide a brief update regarding our long-term expectations, and how we are positioned to deliver our EBITDA and margin goals, along with some of the global dynamics we are managing and how our business model is uniquely built to tackle these challenges. I will then turn it over to Todd to provide further details on the quarter and our 2022 guidance. Firstly, it's important to say that we delivered our fourth quarter targets despite the increasingly tough operating environment. On top line, we grew 1% versus fourth quarter 2020, and our base institutional and food and beverage businesses, which together represent more than 85% of our revenue, grew 17% and 14%, respectively. On adjusted EBITDA, we delivered approximately 14% growth versus the fourth quarter of 2020, as we expanded margins to 16.3%. For the full year, we reported flat revenues versus the pre-pandemic year of 2019, demonstrating the resilience of the business with significant additional recovery remaining. Within this, we've seen an acceleration of market share gain, having won net new business equivalent to approximately 3% of annualized top line on both segments, while retaining 99% of our top customers' revenues. We delivered industry-leading adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 20% against 2019, and we saw adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 40 basis points against 2020 and 270 basis points against 2019. We leave 2021 with solid momentum on strategic drivers. While we've seen encouraging recovery as markets open up, we still have over $222 million of post-COVID market recovery in front of us. We're accelerating our market share growth from 2% net new business wins in 2020 to 3% annualized in 2021 and have seen further improvements to net new business in the first 10 weeks of 2022. We have also added five new businesses through M&A over the last 15 months. These strengthen our overall business in our most important geographies and bolster our supply chain efficiencies and customer service excellence. We have a full pipeline of further opportunities under review. We are pricing smartly but firmly to cover inflation. We took an average of over 3% in 2021, over 4% in Q4 2021, and anticipate taking over 6% in 2022. Reflecting the essential nature of our products and services, our price increases were well accepted across our institutional and F&B businesses, and we expect these increases to remain intact. We also remain committed to lowering fixed and variable costs. As such, we expect margins to accelerate when inflation begins to subside. While we cannot accurately predict the timing and speed of future inflation, we do anticipate maintaining our pricing discipline. We were pleased to deliver further margin accretion in 2021 despite the very tough environment. The opening of our new factory and warehouse in Kentucky at the end of 2022 will be another important milestone, adding 100 basis points to our group margins. We remain fully committed to our long-term target of 20% adjusted EBITDA margins. As a reminder, Diversey is one of only two large global players that offer a full suite of hygiene, infection prevention, and cleaning solutions in an industry that remains highly fragmented. We have spent the last three years transforming our business, strengthening our team, driving pricing discipline, delivering operational excellence, implementing our clear strategy to take market share, and strengthen our business through M&A. This leaves us increasingly well-positioned to take advantage of our growthful, yet fragmented $32 billion addressable market. Now, let me go back and unpack some of the headlines a little more. Our base institutional business, excluding infection prevention, grew by 17% in Q4, and 15% in the full year 2021. We previously explained that we temporarily lost approximately $400 million of mostly food service and hospitality revenues in 2020. The reopening of markets in some geographies, along with our pricing and market share gains, has driven this dramatic upswing. Our share gains are driven by our investments in US Food service and hospitality, commercial excellence, and global accounts, as well as our innovation pipeline and recently upgraded ESG plan, which becomes more important to customers with each passing quarter. Todd will provide more color around the institutional base recovery a little bit later. Separately, we gained over $420 million of growth in 2020 in our institutional infection prevention. This has normalized since Q2 2021 at a level more than 20% ahead of the pre-pandemic level. We believe this represents a permanent step change in a growing market. Q1 2022 is therefore anticipated to be the last quarter of normalization at this new run rate level. Thereafter, we see good growth prospects for infection prevention, supported by a range of new and soon-to-be-launched products. For example, specialist food production wipes and hand care wipes. As well as our recently announced expanded distribution agreement with Reckitt Benckiser to bring their trusted brands to our portfolio in more parts of the world. Our F&B business has been gaining share over a sustained period. We anticipate this to continue, supported by our water treatment offering, which continues to be well-received by the market, and via our acquisition of Birko in the U.S., which strengthened our North American F&B presence, so that we now believe we're the number one or number two player in every region around the world. In M&A, our plan remains unchanged to add 2% to the top line annually, with targeted multiples ranging from 6-10x EBITDA on a trailing twelve-month basis, and less than 6x on a fully synergized basis. During the last 15 months, we acquired SaneChem in Poland, Avmor in Canada, Tasman in Australia, Birko in the U.S., and Shorrock Trichem in the U.K. These acquisitions all met the financial criteria above and strengthen our presence, supply chain, and customer service in important geographies. We are pleased to report that progress with integration is good and synergies are being delivered in line with the acquisition plans. During the fourth quarter, we completed the acquisition of Birko Corporation. This acquisition enhances our scale and competitive position in the global food and beverage market and transforms our North American food and beverage sales, manufacturing, and technical service footprint, which has been a strategic priority for us. Additionally, in January of 2022, we acquired Shorrock, which strengthens our leading institutional market position in the U.K. This acquisition expands our portfolio of products and services, including innovative sustainability solutions. It also enhances Diversey's sales and service capability through Shorrock's experienced employees and distribution infrastructure. I'd like to give a brief update on the use of funds from the equity issuance in November. Consistent with the rationale explained at the time, we've invested in the two transactions described above, Birko and Shorrock, which are strategically important to the U.S. and U.K., our two largest geographies. Secondly, we're investing in the new factory and warehouse in Kentucky, which, as described earlier, will add materially to our global margins. Thirdly, we're investing in an increased level of new business growth, which will become evident as we go through 2022. Now, we are clearly operating in an unprecedented environment with COVID variants impacting global economies, rising inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and other operating expenses that can be difficult to predict and challenging to manage. Against that background, I'm extremely pleased with the resiliency of our business model and our management team's ability to be agile in the short term while maintaining focus on our long-term goals. We remain confident that Diversey is positioned to maintain its targeted growth goals of double-digit percentage adjusted EBITDA growth. We are encouraged by the ongoing recovery in our institutional base business that continues to build as the markets around the globe stabilize and reopen. We enter 2022 with a larger sales force and more products that can drive growth as we realize the benefits from our acquisitions completed over the last few years. I would like to thank all of our dedicated and hardworking people at Diversey, including our new employees from Birko and Shorrock, for their dedication and delivery in uniquely tough times. This is a great time for Diversey to shine, and we thank you for everything you do. With that, let me now pass it over to Todd to further discuss our fourth quarter financial results and our outlook for 2022. Thanks, Phil. Let me start with a summary of our consolidated net results. Net sales for the quarter were $672.4 million and increased as expected, up $7.5 million or 1.1% versus third quarter and $5 million or 0.7% versus prior year. I'd like to take you through our segment performance, and you can reference page eight of the supplemental presentation posted today to our website for additional color. Our Institutional segment, which represents approximately three-fourths of our business in revenue, saw revenue decline 3.5% versus Q4 2020. However, as Phil mentioned, this decline is not reflective of our run rate revenue and underlying growth rate as we head into 2022. Our base Institutional business continues to recover with 17% revenue growth in the quarter as compared to fourth quarter 2020. However, this was offset by Infection Prevention's 51% decline as compared to the elevated demand in fourth quarter 2020, although it was still more than 20% above 2019 levels. As depicted on slide 10, we are encouraged by the recovery of our base business as markets reopen from COVID. We believe we have further opportunity to recapture at least $220 million of revenue that was lost during COVID. We also expect to continue to win market share while focusing on our pricing to cover rising input costs. I'd also like to note how we see the Infection Prevention business normalizing in 2022. As shown on page 11 of the presentation, we continue to experience normalization after the first quarter of 2021. At the start of the pandemic, we saw our infection prevention business grow significantly in 2020 by more than $420 million in revenue. While we anticipated and communicated demand would moderate, during 2021, the normalization occurred much sooner and deeper than we expected. We expect a roughly $360 million year-over-year revenue decline for this line of business between the second quarter of 2021 through the end of the first quarter of 2022. The majority of this decline, approximately 80%, has already occurred and is captured in our 2021 reported revenue results. We expect the remaining 20%, or approximately $70 million, to occur in the first quarter of 2022. However, for the balance of 2022, we anticipate a return to growth in infection prevention driven by our expanding share with AHP Oxivir in healthcare, the further globalization of our market-leading products, our new product innovation launches, and our recently expanded partnership with Reckitt Benckiser. Note, the combination of the post-COVID reopening of over $220 million and the remaining infection prevention normalization of $70 million makes up $150 million of net post-COVID market recovery to come. Turning to our F&B segment, compared to Q4 2020, revenue grew by 14% and adjusted EBITDA grew by 15.8%. When comparing to Q4 2019, revenue expanded by 16.4% and our adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.8%. We're very pleased that our F&B business continues to grow its customer base and revenues through new business wins, acquisitions, and increasing traction in water treatment. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $109.5 million for the fourth quarter was 13.7% above 2020 and 16.1% above 2019. We are clearly operating in an unprecedented environment with COVID variants impacting our global economies, rising inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and other operating expenses that can be difficult to predict and challenging to manage. We've been extremely pleased with the resilience of our business model and our management team's ability to be agile in the short term while maintaining focus on controlling our fixed costs and leveraging our scale. This is reflected in our adjusted EBITDA margin, which was 16.3% in the fourth quarter, up 30 basis points sequentially, and up 190 basis points compared to fourth quarter of 2020, and 200 basis points higher than fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year, we increased adjusted EBITDA margin by 40 basis points versus 2020 and 270 basis points versus 2019 through operational efficiency programs and effective pricing. Now, let me touch specifically on cost for a moment. The current reality is that inflation is both difficult to predict and presents unique challenges to manage. This was already the case before the conflict in Eastern Europe and is now magnified further. This cost volatility can put pressure on margins in the short term, but over time, it will eventually turn positive as inflation recedes and we continue to price for the value we provide to our customers. To offset and get ahead of costs, our full year pricing expectation for 2022 is an increase of more than 6%. Combined with our steady productivity gains, we anticipate offsetting inflation first in dollars, and as inflationary pressures moderate, we believe we can capture long-term margin improvement. From a free cash flow perspective, in Q4, we took what we believe to be a prudent and conservative approach related to working capital. We maintained elevated inventory levels to be able to continue to service our customers while the supply chain environment remains under pressure. We also had higher receivables in the quarter, which are transitory in nature due to regional mix and a decision to end our European factoring program, which was expensive to maintain, and our needs were better met through optimization of our securitization program. We see expanded securitization in 2022 as a cash flow opportunity, along with the portion of the increase in working capital experienced in Q4, which should reverse and provide a tailwind in 2022 as the environment normalizes. Moving to our balance sheet, we successfully secured additional capital to support our infrastructure build-out and to support future growth opportunities, both organic and through accretive acquisitions by raising $215 million of net proceeds in a November 2021 follow-on. Our net debt leverage ended the year below 4.5x, which triggers a step-down of our interest rate, saving roughly $14 million per year in cash interest when compared to our rates before refinancing. The seasonality of our business typically drives free cash outflow in the first half of the year, but we are focused on generating increased cash flow for the full year 2022. We maintain a strong liquidity profile with over $600 million available as of year-end, which we view as a position of strength as we continue to selectively consider accretive M&A opportunities and generate operating free cash flow in 2022. We've completed two transactions funded by our follow-on stock offering in November, which Phil described earlier. Combined, these acquisitions are estimated to provide approximately $80 million of revenue and double-digit% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2022. Synergy opportunities are expected to improve profitability and accelerate growth over the next 24-36 months. Finally, let me provide our view on the general outlook for our business. We expect revenue to grow by high single-digit% from our full year 2021 revenue of approximately $2.62 billion. This reflects the post-COVID recovery, pricing, accelerating new business, and the M&A already described. We continue to operate in a challenging environment, which is further impacted by the conflict we are seeing in Ukraine. We previously anticipated that these challenges would persist through the first half of 2022 and begin to show improvements towards the back half of the year. However, in light of the concerns related to the impact on oil and oil-linked raw materials, we are including an additional $25 million-$35 million for what could be the adverse impact of oil prices on the business. Accordingly, our 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $380 million-$420 million. This guidance range is also inclusive of the approximately $30 million of adjusted EBITDA headwind in Q1 related to the normalization of $70 million of our infection prevention revenue previously outlined. While we're confident we can continue to address these challenges over time through pricing and rigorous cost management, where we land within the range will be dependent on timing in which the current environment begins to abate and the impact of actions we have or will be implementing to mitigate take effect. We're managing this business for the long term and remain confident that Diversey is positioned to maintain its target strategic goal of double-digit% adjusted EBITDA growth. Our business model has shown resiliency during the past few years, and we're encouraged by the ongoing recovery in our institutional base business that continues to build as the markets around the globe stabilize and reopen. This forecast assumes for the balance of the year, a moderation of inflation by the end of the year, and we expect pricing and continued country reopening's will create a great platform for sales and earnings growth as we launch into 2023 with pricing carryover, our new plant in Kentucky in full swing, and continued growth of new business we are currently experiencing. While it's not our intention going forward to provide quarterly guidance, given the timing of when we are reporting the challenges with inflation and our year-over-year comp, we wanted to try and provide some context on our revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook for the first quarter. At this time, we expect revenue to be approximately flat to Q1 2021, driven by the last quarterly headwind lap of infection prevention normalization. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter will be $56 million-$60 million, assuming no further changes in the current environment the last three weeks of the quarter. This outlook reflects approximately 7%-15% growth over Q1 2019 baseline and is similar to the pre-pandemic phasing of our business for Q1 relative to the remainder of the year. As a reminder, Q1 2022 will be the final year-over-year compare challenge from the normalization of infection prevention in our institutional segment, and we expect the opening of the markets and other key strategic growth initiatives to provide nice tailwinds for the remainder of fiscal 2022. With that, operator, would you please begin the Q&A session? Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the questioning queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Thank you, good morning, everyone. Todd, I'm wondering if you could just give a little more detail on the $25 million-$35 million you're anticipating for oil, you know, respecting the fact that it's very difficult to make these types of projections right now. I'm just really asking sort of what range of oil prices does that assume? What in particular are the actual derivative products that you're buying that you're most concerned about seeing inflation in? Then if maybe you just wanna talk broadly about raw materials and freight and what that overall picture looks like, even the ones that are not necessarily tied to oil and sort of what's embedded in the guidance. Yeah, sure. Thanks, Vincent, and thanks for coming on the call. You know, as you guys know, we're in exceptional time right now, and the environment's changing daily. This guidance was our best view as of inputs actually through yesterday. You know, oil's been floating around $125 a barrel since this past weekend. What we did was we extrapolated that impact across a basket of oil and energy-related materials, raw materials. We looked at pricing and tried to factor in a typical price cost lag, and we generated that range, you know, given what we know today. I think we've done a really excellent job delivering incremental pricing through excellent execution over this past year. Maybe to provide a little bit more color on direct materials and incremental costs and materials, you know, our direct materials, you know, are about 33% of net sales. You know, direct material costs were up about 10% in Q3 2021 and about 16% in Q4 2021. You know, direct material costs are up roughly about 30% based on the latest insights. You know, where it goes from here, of course, is dependent on what happens, you know, with Ukraine and continuing things there in the market environment. You know, at fiscal 2022, estimated direct material cost inflation is about 24%, you know, based on what I mentioned earlier on the assumption on oil and oil-based derivatives and products that are affected by that materials. That includes our current view on Russia, you know, Ukraine, as we sit here today. You know, based on all the work we've done and communicated, we are confident in at least 6% price growth. You know, based on the recent news of this past couple of weeks, you know, we're planning on going again with further pricing now that we've seen the impacts of this last several weeks and are working those plans as we speak. You know, historically, we've talked about, you know, materials that are linked to energy and oil-based, you know, price per barrel like caustic, like ethylene, propylene, and the derivatives that come off those products. You know, historically, those have been about 45% of our raw material purchases. You know, the remainder of the tail of raw materials aren't necessarily linked to that market basket or commodities and, you know, there's a long tail outside of that. Hopefully that provides you some color, I know on an issue that's you know, everybody's wondering about. Yeah, no, that's great. Obviously, very challenging to forecast right now. Just as a follow-up, you know, thank you for the color on the working capital in the fourth quarter, but maybe you could help bridge us to 2022 is how we should think about, you know, getting to a free cash flow number from your EBITDA forecast. Yeah, sure. You know, you guys can take the range you want starting with adjusted EBITDA. Our cash interest given the refinancing, you know, should come in around, you know, $71 million with a couple, $2, $3 million for securitization costs. $74-$75 million there. Our CapEx, you know, if you look at, you know, a base CapEx number around $100 million, and you know we have the finishing of our significant plant investment, which if you use about $30 million, you'll get to the right, you know, ballpark on CapEx. We, you know, have a range of cash taxes probably around $45-$50 million based on the range of EBITDA we gave you guys here on the call. I think our cash one-time cost next year will be around $75 million-$80 million. I do think we'll have positive impacts on working capital, you know, in the $20 million-$30 million range, resulting from some securitization benefit, some inventory benefit, because I do think, you know, as we move through this year, the supply chain challenges will relieve in the back half of this year, which will allow us to take, you know, a more aggressive actions in the inventory area. You know, we're working on a number of things in the working capital area to help us really drive improvement, you know, in the next 12 months. So all that gets you, Vincent, you know, to a number that... A free cash flow number, I think that's, you know, floating around $100 million. Okay. Thank you very much. I'll pass it along. Thank you. Our next question is from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question. Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to touch a bit on, you know, some of the comments you made on the net new sales and just, focusing mainly on the institutional business. You know, a lot of the growth might be, you know, part of the recovery, part of, you know, new sales. I was hoping you just help us break down, you know, that growth by, you know, pricing the new sales and just, the recovery and kind of, you know, the visibility, going forward. Yeah. Manav, it's Phil here. Let me do that. Let me start with the new business. We added about 3% of new business last year. That's what we won. In our number, probably a fraction less. We won that really consistent with the strategy we've talked about before. You know, the US F ood service focus, we did well there. We won well also in our global accounts business. And then the extra energy on commercial excellence across the world is also really starting to help. As we also alluded to, you know, we've seen that number accelerate. We were more like 2% in 2020, 3% last year, and we've had some really nice step up in the first part of this year. In terms of price, really a similar trend. We saw a bit over 3% across the full year, but we were more like 4.5% in the fourth quarter. You know, we've seen that accelerate as well. In terms of recovery, you know, we try to give some extra insight there. We said, you know, as we turn the year, there's something like something more than $220 million of recovery. I think the critical point there is that we are seeing it come all the way back. If you refer to, I think it's page nine on the supplemental, you'll see that in North America, we were back to 97% of pre-pandemic volumes. That's, of course, before offices reopened to any great extent. We think we're gonna be, you know, really fully recovered as offices reopen, whenever that is, hopefully in the next few months. The rest of the world's a bit behind, but it's coming back. We see it now. We see it starting to recover already this year. Hopefully that helps. You can see the different elements of what's driving the growth. Okay. Yeah, that's helpful. Then just the other question I had was, you know, you guys obviously have a very active M&A pipeline. You know, hopefully, your scale helps you in a better position in some of these targets you're going after. Does that mean the pipeline potentially gets bigger, and you try to be more active, or are we gonna see a slowdown of some sorts? Well, look, I think the first thing to say is, you know, the M&A that we've done has been entirely consistent with the strategic drivers, you know, around key geographies, strengthening supply chain, adding in the right areas of technology and product, and consistent with our financial targets. You know, 6-10x EBITDA with a post-synergy number of below six. We feel really good about that. The pipeline is just as strong. You know, we completed these five transactions, but we have a very long pipeline of possible deals that fit both the strategic rationale and the financial rationale. You know, I can't give you any more indication of exactly what we'll invest when, but we, you know that. We said we'd do at least 2% top line, and you know, we certainly have a pipeline that would support a number well north of that. All right. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question. Good morning. This is Kieran on for Chris. I was just wondering, I think it was slide nine, you broke out volumes on kind of the base institutional business by region. Can you just give us your insights into how we should think about growth by region into 2022 and how you see that progressing throughout the year? Specifically, you know, if you can highlight Europe and North America, that would be helpful. Yeah. Look, let me do that. As you can see from the chart on page nine, much of the recovery in North America has happened already. As I just said, there is more to come, specifically around offices. Also some of our contract caterers still have some volume to come back. I think more of the growth there is going to be from new business. As I said, you know, we've had some really good activity both in the back end of last year and also in the start of this year. We will see more growth coming in North America driven by new business. If I look at Europe, you know, there's a lot of recovery coming through now. You know, while we averaged 81%, as you can see on the chart, last year at volume versus pre-pandemic, you know, that number would be getting into the 90s now. You know, really a significant bounce back. The same is true rest of world. Rest of world is certainly behind Europe. If I think of Southeast Asia, for example, if I think of India, and also, Australia and New Zealand, they started reopening later than Europe, but we're now starting to see the upswing coming. Great. Maybe just a really quick follow-up on the pricing. Where, if you have the numbers available, like where did you exit the year, and how should we think about that pricing flowing through throughout the course of the year? You know, as we think towards the second half or 2023, you know, how do you view the stickiness of those prices as some of these costs kind of subside? Thank you. Yeah. Sure. It's a good question. In terms of exiting the year, you know, we were about 4.5% in the quarter, in the fourth quarter of last year. You know, we expect that the first quarter of this year to be getting up close to the 6% number that we described in what we said earlier. Now, you know, when we were building our plan for the year with the expectations, you know, using the forward view, we thought that that would be a good place to be. Of course, given the war and everything else that's going on, even in the few weeks before the war, we are now going out for further pricing. The 6%, you know, you should think of that as a floor. We'll be going out globally and pushing that inflation that you know is in the market through the business into customers, and therefore would expect to see that you know continuing to go up as we go through the year. Great. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question. Thank you, and good morning, guys. Just a follow-up on the pricing question. As you go to your customers, like, are you able to change the contract terms, like, to raise prices whenever? Or are those prices, like, set, like, once or twice a year? Yeah, look, the truth is there's a mix. You know, in some of our contracts, we're able to change prices simply by giving a period of notice at any stage. In some, there are a number of price windows. In a relatively smaller number, there are a single annual opportunity. Therefore, look, you know, we gotta work through all of those contracts. What we have seen, even with those that just have an annual view, actually a lot of customers understand what's going on here and have been pretty amenable to having an ex-contract discussion. Okay. Is your sense that by the end of the year as we exit 2022, like, you would have caught up with raws if raw prices don't move much higher from where they are right now? I think not quite. You know, in the guidance, Todd described a $25 million-$30 million gap. I think that's our view of, you know, absent the war, we absolutely would have been ahead of price versus cost. With the war giving an extra large surge in inflation, if that continues right through the year, we won't quite get a full recovery on a dollar basis within the year to the tune of the $25 million-$30 million. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Hi. Thanks. Good morning. You acknowledged that the supply chain issue is currently difficult to predict. Can you provide a state of the union on the supply chain and steps that you're taking to mitigate headwinds? Yeah, George, let me do that. Let me start with raw materials. Look, I think the bottom line is raw materials have not constrained us, but they have created a huge amount of extra effort and energy. Perhaps at times, you know, we've been a bit hand to mouth, but we've tended always to get there in the end. Labor has been less of an issue for us than others that we've, you know, read about across the market. Really, freight has been our biggest challenge. You know, we are somewhat dependent on third-party freight carriers. At times, that has been a little bit disruptive for us. You know, we've been let down late and last minute. You know, that's also driven a lot of cost in as we've sought to make sure that we've got appropriate insurance in place. You know, all in all, I couldn't sit here and say, you know, we've got millions of dollars of missed revenue, but it's certainly you know tough to manage, and it's certainly driving, you know, a lot of cost into the business. Got it. Within the Food and Beverage business, can you describe trends you're seeing with new business, what's driving the performance there, and then also discuss traction with your water treatment business? Yeah. Sure. Look, in terms of the trends on new business, it really is a continuation of what we've been seeing for over two years now. You know, we have a sweet spot with our products and our service that is just really appealing to customers. We have, you know, customers often trial with us, they like what they see on both product and service, and then they buy, you know, more fully across their sites. We've seen that, you know, consistently over the period that we've been seeing. That applies really to the different sectors and the different geographies. You know, we think as we look at our pipeline, we see no reason why that shouldn't continue. In terms of water treatment, you know, we're about sort of double-digit millions of revenue on our new water treatment proposition, which is a bit ahead of what we said. I think we said when we launched, we'd get a few million year one, we'd be more like this point year two, and then we'd get bigger growth in year three. You know, we're ahead of where we wanted to be, but that just reflects that, you know, customers like it. They're really open to it. They love the concept of being able to, you know, buy both the cleaning and hygiene products alongside water treatment from a single contact. That seems to really resonate in the market, and the quality of the product and service is additive. Yeah, you know, that continues to go from strength to strength. Very helpful. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Wittmann with Baird. Please proceed with your question. Oh, great. Thanks for taking my question, guys. I wanted to just get a little bit of detail on the guidance in here. You guys mentioned that there's a degree of M&A that's baked into the guidance, and I just wanted to clarify that to start out with. Todd, excuse me, is that include M&A that has not been yet closed, or does the M&A contribution in your guidance from deals that have been announced and closed, including this one that you did in January? Just trying to get at that component as well as the organic growth. Maybe you wanted to comment on the FX headwind that you're guiding with here, as well as the volume impact, recognizing that you already said that you're getting at least 6% price. Yeah, sure. What I would say to you is that the M&A that we've got in our forecast in the upper single digit kind of revenue growth guidance includes the two transactions that were you know closed, both Birko and Shorrock in December and January. Those are roughly $80 million in top line or about 3% M&A. In terms of the guidance for top line, we've not assumed you know in that revenue guide, incremental M&A in year that's not been closed yet. Just again, to talk about kind of the bridge you know year-on-year. You know, we think there's you know 3% growth from new business, as Phil mentioned, about 3% M&A. Phil referenced about 6% pricing. We do have some reopening you know of markets that you know range 2%-4%. We are giving back some you know 3%-4% likely negative currency year-on-year impacts. That $70 million of infection prevention normalization that we referenced in Q1 is another 2%-3% give back. If you wanna recap kind of to the high you know the upper single digits kind of revenue you know we're guiding to that's the kinda high level revenue bridge from our perspective. Great. That's really helpful. Just maybe a clarification to follow up on the EBITDA margin side here. I just wanna make sure I heard this correctly in your prepared remarks. I think you said that 33% of your revenue goes to direct cost of materials, and I think you said that your expectation was 24% increase in those costs for 2022. 24 of 33 is about 8% margin headwind, if I calculate that correctly. You said you're talking about like a 6% at least price increase. That's suggesting just on raw materials alone, you've got maybe a couple hundred basis points of margin. It looks like that's pretty consistent with the margin guidance that you've given here. Is that kind of a way of thinking about the implied adjusted EBITDA margins and why they're down and the reasons? Yeah For why they're down? Does that math hold, Todd? I think it does. Or you could do the math in dollars, right? 30% times our revenue times 24%, and that's also why, you know, Phil suggested we're also going back for more pricing given that guide includes a view towards the latest impact from Russia, Ukraine, right? Even at, you know, one of our values is bias for action. Even this next week, we're sitting down with the team talking about incremental pricing in addition to what we just, you know, talked about at the 6% level to make sure that we can go get those dollars covered at a minimum and then see margin accretion beyond that. Okay, great. The good- Thanks, Todd, for clarifying that. Oh, yeah. I think the good news too, maybe one last comment on that is, you know, the rose in that picture is that, you know, we believe that if and when inflation recedes, this is a business that doesn't historically give back a lot of the pricing it takes. So, you know, midterm, that's actually a good thing for our business from our perspective. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC. Please proceed with your question. Great. Thanks for taking my question. Two questions. You know, I think when we were going through the IPO, there was some commentary that you guys built in a $65 or $70 oil price assumption. Apologies if you touched on this, but how are you thinking about that now? Obviously, there's a lot of volatility out there, but do you feel that your guidance accurately or at least somehow kinda captures the current environment? Yeah. Look. $65 looks, slightly old-fashioned now, doesn't it? Right The guidance that Todd described earlier is based on, you know, us seeing a continuing view of the current sort of $125 that it's been bouncing around. Of course, the other thing that's true is we didn't talk about pricing at 6%+ in the IPO. Look, this is just a different world with different dynamics. There is higher inflation, and therefore, we are reacting and pricing accordingly. There'll always be a bit of a lag, but over time, that'll turn out to be a positive. You know, we've just gotta get through it. Right. Okay. Thanks for that. If you think about the full year guidance, you know, $380-$420, you know, it's about, again, maybe I think down maybe about 10%, from when we were thinking, you know, back then. Is that mostly reflective of that $220 recovery? Said another way, as that comes back, do you expect kind of to get back into that mid-400 range, maybe in 2023 or 2024? Or how are you thinking about getting back to kind of fully loaded earnings power? Yeah. Look, it's a really good question. I start by saying, look, it's got more to do with this price cost thing that we were just talking about. You know, if you were to add the $25-$30 back onto our guidance for the Ukraine situation, you know, that makes quite a difference. I think if I step back and think, you know, where are we versus the IPO, the recovery has been a bit later because obviously COVID, more variants and stuff, but now it's coming through really strongly. I think we are pricing more, as I said. We've done more M&A and better M&A than we might have believed, and we've got more momentum on our strategic volume drivers. You know, I said water treatment is ahead. I think the US F ood service is ahead. I think commercial excellence and global accounts are ahead. I think, you know, there's some delays, but also probably more momentum in the business as we go forward. Sorry, just to clarify. It actually sounds like when you do get full recovery of that, just given the pieces that you've added, the wins, the potential margin, the pricing, as you said, you don't give it back. You could actually be, you know, potentially beyond your earlier. I mean, I don't, you know, I don't wanna be aggressive, but it sounds like you're exiting this period with a better position. Is that a fair characterization? Yeah. We feel we've got really good momentum. You know, when this price cost thing unwinds and the recovery comes back, we think we're gonna be really, really well positioned in that kind of, you know, double-digit EBITDA year after year. That's where we're gonna get to. Great. Thanks a lot. Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Skowronski with UBS. Please proceed with your question. Thanks. Can you just walk us through how we should be thinking about margin cadence as we roll through the year once we're past the first quarter? Just trying to think of the price versus raw dynamic there and how that flows down to margins. Todd, do you want to take that one? Yeah, I can take a shot at that. You know, we're not giving quarterly guidance at this point, but clearly the inflation and the hyperinflation and the war is on us now. It's, you know, likely that the first quarter, the second quarter are much more challenged than the third quarter and the fourth quarter, primarily driven by this price cost lag that we've talked quite a bit about. You know, I would expect that, you know, as we make our way through the year, you would see margin improvement as the price starts to catch the costs, you know, given what we know today, which again, theoretically could change tomorrow. That would be the way I would think about margin progression, you know, likely lowest in Q1, hopefully recovering quarter-over-quarter as we go through the year. There is some seasonality in the business. We tend to have- Q2 and Q3 pre-COVID, our bigger quarters. You know, with that caveat, I'd say I think price catching cost, you know, accelerates through the year in general. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. You know, you've made a couple acquisitions since the last call. Can you just give us details on the seasonality of sales for these businesses, particularly Birko and Shorrock, and if this will skew typical sales cadence we've seen in the past? Todd, do you wanna carry on? Yeah, sure. You know, we haven't guided this to the quarterly seasonality of those acquisitions, but I would tell you that they're probably not material enough to swing any of our seasonality. It's about $80 million in total, as I mentioned, so on $2.78 billion, you know, it's not gonna have any material impact on our quarterly phasing. Thanks. Yep. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Phil Wieland for any closing comments. Yeah, look, thank you very much for that, and thanks to everyone for joining. I guess in closing, I would just say the highlights. Delighted to have hit Q4. Great to have strong momentum with the base coming back, with $220 million in front of us. New business accelerating from 3% last year. Price accelerating 6% in this year and rising, and the M&A coming through strongly. In addition, the U.S. factory and warehouse coming online towards the end of this year. Look, we feel good about the plan. That said, of course, these are very tough times. You know, the war is a horrific situation, and it's driving a lot of inflation into our business, and there's gonna be a price cost lag. We feel confident that we'll come out of that, you know, over time. Thank you for listening and participating, and have a good day. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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