Thanks, everyone, as we continue day one of the Barclays Global Autos and Mobility Conference. Very pleased to have with us Ford, Sherry House, company CFO. Also sitting here is Lynn Tyson in IR, Grace in IR. And so, this has actually been a very interesting year for yourselves and for the broader US OEM complex, just given tariffs and the way you've actually demonstrated some resiliency to those earnings. So I think a lot to unpack here. So what I'll do is I'll go through a series of fireside chat style questions. Anyone who has questions toward the end, we can take some Q&A. But let's kick it off. Maybe I think just from a very near-term perspective, 'cause I think what's been the focus of a lot of people on the near-term basis has been this Novelis issue, the fire, which you said was 90,000-100,000 units of lost volume on the F-Series side. Maybe you can just talk about the latest update there, gating factors on volume recovery, et cetera. Yeah, sure. Well, thank you very much. And hey, it's great to be here with you too. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, sure. So the Novelis fire, as we reported in the Q3 earnings, we were expecting it to be about a 90,000-100,000 unit impact in Q4. So that does mean that our Q4 Adjusted EBIT would be impacted, we're estimating, by $1.5-$2 billion. Now, the story doesn't stop there. We do think that as you move into 2025, we, as we move into 2026, we are putting very detailed plans in place to be able to make up a lot of that volume. At this point, we have line of sight to making up about 50,000 units. And the way that we're doing that is really a couple-fold. We are both looking at adding a third shift to our Dearborn Truck Plant. And we're also looking at increasing the line speed in our Kentucky Truck Plant. So these are some of the things that we are doing in order to be able to combat that, that situation. At this point, we are still on track with the hot mill, which is the part of the factory that was impacted, to be coming on board as we're getting into Thanksgiving and into kind of early December. And so you're gonna start to see a ramp up of that mill again as, as you're in December. But the, the recovery of this is really gonna be more of a Q1 and throughout 2026 activity. So we're doing all the things that you would expect us to be doing. We're checking with the supply chain. We've done 100% checks to make sure we're able to get the parts in that we need. We're stockpiling where that's, you know, required. Warehousing, we're required to make sure that we're gonna be able to recover as much as possible as we get into 2026. And thank you. And maybe just a point of clarification, 'cause I think what may have confused some people is you, you're losing 90-100,000 units, but you're adding incremental capacity. But I think the guidance you gave is you'll only get 50 back. So the reason why you're only getting 50 back, even though you're adding capacity, is because there's still supply constraints and it's different on engine variants. So maybe you could just help unpack or clarify on that point. There's lots of factors that play. There's line speed. There's the capacity of a single shift. It's the availability of parts. And so yes, we're managing all of those items. And you know, the hope is that we'll be able to creep up a bit from that. But those are the main boundary constraints to be larger than 50. So right now, for the foreseeable future, we are planning on having that third shift in the Dearborn Truck Plant. Okay. Why don't we pivot to more of the outlook on 2026? You gave us some breadcrumbs. Thank you. So, I think you gave us some broad parameters, but maybe we could just start first with, let's just set the stage on how you look at the industry environment right now, because I think there's been a lot of debate on what the go-forward industry looks like. We've had a lot of pull forward. There's been a lot of noise in SAAR and pricing relative to the tariffs. So help us maybe just start how you're looking at the industry environment right now. I know we're still two months out. You know, can we keep volume steady? Is flat price a reasonable expectation? How do we look at the industry environment where we stand today? Okay. Well, first off, I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on our October sales. Our October sales were up over 1.6%, and we had increase of share that was almost one full point. That is despite the industry in October going down by 5%, so Ford has continued to be strong despite a lot of the pullback that we have seen in EVs. Okay. As we exit this year, we think that this year is probably gonna be in the range of U.S. SAAR of about 16.8 million. And that's with heavy, just to clarify, because I think a lot of us look at it on a light vehicle basis. That includes medium heavy, correct? Yes. And so that is how we're thinking about it as you're exiting the year. We're not in a position yet to report what we're thinking going into, you know, kind of 2026, other than all signals have suggested that we're gonna continue to have some robustness to our industry. And Ford, in particular, is coming off eight straight quarters of increased sales. And that's a testament to the strength of our product lineup, the fact that we're giving our customers choice. And so we do continue to see that as we move forward into the early part of next year. How are you feeling about the competitive dynamic, because pricing has been very resilient, but we know that there's a few moving pieces. There may be some tariff cost that's been passed on in the model year 2026 pricing. There is some incremental capacity that's coming online from your sales and competition next year, 2027. What is the how would you frame the broad pricing environment right now? So right now, I would say that we see pricing for the full year up about a half a point. So the. For the industry. For the industry. That's right. We see it up about a half a point for the industry. Now, if you break that down, it isn't the same in every area. So we see a little bit more pressure in the commercial, and then we see more strength in the retail. But as we go forward, the way that we look at our business is really segment by segment, channel by channel, product by product, and we're looking at where are their dislocations, where are their opportunities for us to price, lean into pricing more. So for instance, with the new tariffs on the heavy-duty trucks, all of our trucks are already here in the United States. So that is going to enable us. We're there in Ohio. They're in Kentucky Truck. So these are, you know, this is gonna enable us to be able to be in a better position as our competitors have to take on some of those additional tariffs, for instance. So we think that there's going to be pockets where you're gonna see these, you know, pricing opportunities that are going to present themselves. And we'll have the opportunity to decide, do you wanna lean into volume? Do you wanna lean into price? Just, sorry, just to double-click on one of the comments there on the commercial side, Ford Pro, because I think you talked about there were some pressures in Pro related to contracts that had turned over. When do we lap those, I'd say, more difficult comps on the Pro side and some of that commercial pricing that, you know, contractually changed? I would say that the way that we kind of look at Pro is you've got the small and medium business, you know, you've got the rental business, you've got the government business. We've been seeing a lot more pressure on the government in the rental here recently. We do think that over time that may come back, you know, some of it with the government shutdown you see. You also see secondary impacts on the rental industry with the government shutdown that happened because there's less government employees that were traveling. That then is less pull on the rental, you know, the rental market as well. It's a complicated market. I think that over time that there will be, you know, some improvement, but we have seen this pressure, particularly on pricing, some hold-off on transactions occurring, that can only hold off for so long. Okay. And inventory, you're right now on a published basis using the third-party data, 84 days. I think that's probably on your basis more like 75- 80. I think you gave this target of 55- 59 days and exiting the year. That, that's still on track? Yeah. So you're right. We were at, I think, 545,000 gross stock units, which was at the 84 days. And our retail days were down around 71. Now, from where we started the year, that was 620,000 units in gross stocks. And so we're down about 12%. We do think that inventories are gonna continue to come down because of the Novelis impact and also the increased December sales cycle that you tend to see. So we think that we're gonna continue to kind of bring that down, you know, slightly as we exit December. Okay. Great. Why don't we pivot to cost? Mm-hmm. Perhaps, you can help us clarify. You gave a $1 billion number of improvement next year. That's a gross basis 'cause we know there's some investment that you have to do that'll net out against that. That's right. You'll disclose that. That $1 billion, you know, is that mostly warranty and material? Just help us understand what's going on there. Yeah. It's part of a greater trend that's happening within our business right now. So you'll recall that we just hit our fifth straight quarter of year-over-year cost improvements. In this year, we're still on track to have a net cost improvement of $1 billion. The largest composition of that is gonna be material cost, followed by warranty and also freight and duty. As we go into 2026, that good work that we've put in, in action, the work that we're doing to get lower design costs, we're being really careful not to over-design, not to over-content, and also not to overpay. And we've got a lot of tactics and initiatives that are enabling that improvement. We're expecting that to continue as we move into 2026. We also see an improvement, continued in warranty, particularly in warranty coverages. We think are gonna continue to improve faster than the FSAs, so the field service actions, we think still are going to be there a little bit longer. You'll recall that our initial quality has been improving substantially. In fact, the J.D. Power 2025 Initial Quality Study has us, Ford, as the most awarded brand. And so that's showing up in the improvements in coverages that we're expecting is going to happen again in 2026 because we saw those coverages really come down across many of our products this year. The F-150 hybrid, it came down. It came down in the Escape. It came down in the Explorer. So we're expecting that again as you get into 2026. You are correct that we're expecting to continue to have about $1 billion in cost improvements next year, but we have some accretive things that we wanna go after, particularly on the ICE side, particularly on the hybrid side, and we think that it's going to behoove us as a company to take those dollars saved and invest them in creative opportunities for the business. Okay. EV, which we see, and I think many see as really the largest change in the U.S. industry, right? Mm-hmm. As you know, getting rid of the carrot, getting rid of the stick. So, you and your other US OEM peers are, have had considerable EV losses. You're modeling, you're on track for, call it, $4-$5 billion of losses this year. Maybe you can just help us unpack the opportunity to improve, and let's just maybe peel away at a few of these. So first of all, I wanna start with just the question on vehicle mix. How much opportunity is there? You've talked about performance. How much opportunity is there for both fewer EVs, which are presumably at negative variable margins, as well as increased performance mix because there's a more favorable compliance environment? Yeah. So I think that as we go forward into 2026, we're gonna be watching, first off, the end of this year and what's gonna be happening into November and December. We knew that October was gonna be off from an EV sales perspective. But, you know, we're really gonna be watching what's happening there. And then we're gonna be looking at how do we make adjustments going forward. And there'll be more, by the way, that we are going to report on this, in the near future. But what I can share with you today is that I'd expect there to be contraction in the U.S. EV market, particularly our sales, and us to lean more into some of the products that enable us to put, for instance, in our Mustangs, maybe a 5.0 L engine instead of the 2.3 L engine. I know that some people in the audience here just had a wonderful ride in some of our Raptors. And that's a product that I think that we're going to be doing a bit, a bit more of as well. We're gonna be leaning into these products that are just passion products. I mean, these are vehicles that people love. And what's interesting about those products is what comes with them is more accessories as well. And so it becomes a bit of an ecosystem. It isn't just you know kind of the product sale itself, but that in many ways becomes only the beginning of, of it. So yes, we'll be leaning more into mix, where, where it's possible. But I don't think you're gonna see the same effect in Europe as much because we're continuing to see the compliance requirements there. We've got a brand new lineup of three EVs there. That is what has enabled us to, you know, nearly double our EV volume this year is with that. And we've been able to keep losses the same, which means those products are more profitable than our, if you wanna call it, Gen 1A, which is, you know, our Lightning and our Mach-E products. Okay. I wanna unpack a comment that you made on the earnings call, which is of the year-to-date losses in your Model e segment, $3 billion are on Gen 1... Mm-hmm. ...products. So now some of this is Europe, which you just. And that's gonna be Europe as well as. Right. So some of that is Europe. And so that will continue. But there are presumably some losses related to the US product, your Lightning, Mach-E. How much of that can be pared back between whatever R&D is going into that as well as the fixed cost where that footprint, you know, the realities on the need for that footprint are changing dramatically? And Lynn said I can't ask about impairments, so I won't. But how do we think about that $3 billion and the pieces of that and what you can pull away? Yeah. So I mean, clearly, the U.S. market sentiment is changing. The carrots and the sticks are changing as it relates to the U.S. EV market. And so there's gonna be, you know, realities there. We will share, you know, as it makes sense. Rent credits, $600 million year-to-date? It did year-to-date. Yeah. That's right. What need is there in the future for regulatory credits? And maybe how much of that is European versus US regulatory credits spent? A very small portion of that is gonna be European credits. I think that, you know, you would be seeing quite a reduction with respect to the credit, credit need as we go global need as we go into 2026. What you also might remember is that we had on our, in our disclosures that we had about $2.5 billion of regulatory credit opportunities to purchase. And so we think a large portion of that's gonna go away. Just like we already had it go from $4.2 billion obligation down to the $2.5 billion, we think you're gonna see another dip as we get clarity on the CO2 emission policy here, probably in the next six weeks. Okay. And then maybe just the last one, and then I wanna transition that to maybe a broader talk on or question on EV. UEV, which I think is probably it's a very critical product for you. And I know you've talked about really the existential need to get this product right. So let's just start. How significant of a resource outlay is this on UEV? Because you're clearly reallocating some spend from the core EV Gen 1 to UEV, which is, you know, your next gen. How significant of a resource outlay is this? What's interesting is that, this is a, this is one of our major bets. This is our Gen 2 platform. We are incredibly excited about it. It represents more than this first vehicle that's coming out in 2027. This is going to be a platform. So as we outlay cash associated with that, you're gonna see the ability to reuse a lot of that as we add additional top hats over time. Additionally, this is a really important program for Ford overall. It is teaching us to build vehicles differently. By us bringing together the designers and the manufacturing folks and the supply chain folks all housed together, we are designing more efficiently. We are designing more effectively, and our costs are lower. So just to give you a few statistics, this new platform is going to enable us to have 40% less manufacturing steps and 20% less parts. It's also going to enable us to produce the vehicles 15% faster. All of that translates into better product, better cost structure, better ability to compete, not just against the domestic competitors, but against the global competitors as well. So this UEV platform, we're incredibly excited about. It is on track. We already have sourced about 95% of the parts thus far. We have about two-thirds of the production tools ready to go, and we are already testing the product as well. So it's a very exciting next step for us. It is an investment. I did say that, as you just pointed out, we had that $3 billion, that was gonna be for the EV losses. And then we had the $0.6 billion last year that was going towards next generation. As we move into 2026, that is gonna be increasing. As you move into, you know, closer to your launch year, those expenses do increase as we're getting ready for that 2027 launch, and we are currently gonna be changing over our Louisville plant in order to enable that platform, launch. And the economics where you've talked about a $30,000 base price, which I think many of us would call that very, very ambitious if you can make the economics work. What is the line of sight to get your bill of materials on track? You're saying you're 95% sourced. I assume you have a line of sight to get the BOM where you need to hit that $30,000. And some of these things you've talked about, LFP, Unicasting, you know, parts reduction. That's right. Do you have that line of sight? What we know is that we are building the most cost-effective vehicle as it compares to other vehicles of its class. That is gonna put us in the best position to get the maximum margin. We continue to work on this pathway of reducing costs, of making sure that we have the best price. We'll then be able to enable us to get the best pricing possible. You've talked about just increased focus on making sure you're hitting proper ROIC and capital efficiency. I think in the past there was maybe a mentality of get the product out and we'll deal. I mean, it's sort of more of an industry dynamic. Mm-hmm. Is the mentality now that you will only launch this vehicle if you have a line of sight to hit profitability, however you wanna define that early on in the launch? So as I said, early on in the launch, you're always gonna have launch expenses. It tends to not be as profitable in the beginning as when you look at your life cycle average. So you're going to see improvements over time as you get out of that launch window. You're also going to see step function improvements as we launch additional top hats because then you are reusing that base technology in the base manufacturing footprint. So that's where you're going to see over time this increase profitability that exists. Okay. I wanna go back to prior comments that you made on cost. You've given in the past this metric that there's a $7 billion cost gap between you and your closest competitor. That's right. There's $1 billion on structural and the remaining $6 billion is sort of half warranty, half materials. You've made progress on that actually last year. You've made progress this year. You're talking more about it next year. So maybe you can just unpack what we've seen. Y ou talked a bit about warranty. What further line of sight you have to coverage is getting better, but the FSAs? And then maybe you can unpack what's going on on material where it seems like that's been really the dominant piece of these savings. Yeah. So let me first frame it up. So you mentioned the $7 billion. I reported in our Q2 earnings that we believed, based on our analysis, that we closed the gap to about $5.5 billion. So we think that that was about $5.5 billion. We think we've continued to make progress. We don't think that measuring against the competition is really where we need to keep our focus. We put it out there because we wanna be honest and transparent about where we are, and we wanna show our progress points and also kind of rile the troops internally. However, what's most important is that we continue to see this quarter-over-quarter cost improvement, this five, you know, consecutive quarters, like we said, of year-over-year cost improvement. So material cost, yes, if you unpack that a bit, it's coming in a lot of different forms. As I mentioned earlier, one of the things that we've been doing better is building that pipeline of design, cost-down ideas as you're entering the next year. So when we were going from 2024 into 2025, and as we're sitting here in 2025 going into 2026, we're building that pipeline, that queue of ideas that we know have a good reliability, a good chance of being able to be successful, successfully implemented in the year ahead. That gives us a really good head start. Additionally, we're getting a lot stronger, a lot smarter with respect to how we take each of our product, components and how we are working with our suppliers to find cost-down opportunities, to negotiate better pricing over time. So our negotiation skills have also improved quite a bit over time. So that's something that we've been focusing on. There's so many ways in which we are improving, you know, the material costs. But then on the warranty side, it's the initial quality. And that goes back to doing really detailed design reviews. It's making sure that you're getting out to all your suppliers before these products launch and you're checking that the product, the pre-production product approval processes are happening, that all of the run-at rates are happening, and that you're catching those problems earlier so they don't present themselves, you know, within the factory or within, you know, worse, a customer viewing the problems later on. So we're doing a lot of front-end. We're tracking that on balanced scorecards and metrics and making sure that that's happening on a daily basis. That material, that includes or excludes maybe some of the EV dynamics, but also I think you've also talked separately about manufacturing, some of the other overhead costs that are separate. Sounds like there's still a lot more wood to chop. There is. We've continued to get manufacturing efficiencies as well. But part of that is combating increased prices that we have in market factors. So inflation is there. The UAW contract is there. And we have to continually get leaner as an organization. We are doing that. We had implemented for all of our launches a cell manufacturing, cell-by-cell look in driving efficiencies in every one of those cells. We're now taking that approach, and we are taking it global. And so we're using these methodologies that have worked to drive more efficient processes, and we're taking that global. Okay. I wanna talk about technology. Mm-hmm. I know that that's an area where you, I think, have more passion. Can you just talk, first of all, what the AV roadmap is at Ford, be it advanced ADAS to sort of eyes-off L3 consumer? What does it look like? For us, the L3 is being designed in-house. One of the things that's really important about this, our next version of our BlueCruise, version 2.0 is going to be designed, you know, largely in-house. That's gonna enable us to have control over our costs, to have control over our roadmap, to have control over the feature release and the timing of all of that as well. That's really important to us. There's some really important statistics out there right now that I think are worth sharing. We have at this point about 500 million miles of hands-free driving. That is really important as we move to the next levels of autonomy. We also now have a BlueCruise car park that exceeds 1 million units. These are fantastic statistics that help to show the breadth of what we're doing and the effectiveness of what we're doing as well. Electrical architecture. Help us understand where this journey is because you did have FNV4. That was a more advanced electrical architecture that was scrapped, I believe, because that was more linked to EVs. So how are you, you've sort of repivoted to FNV3.X. How that journey looks? And maybe you could just talk about how you're thinking about the resource outlay on this, given it is still on ICE platforms. How are you doing this in an efficient manner? That was one of the main reasons why we went from the FNV4 to the FNV3.X, as it gives us the ability to have one electrical architecture that can be used throughout our portfolio. We believe it's a philosophy in the democratization of technology. We want to have this technology not just on our large Super Duty for commercial customers, but we also wanna have it on these new UEV platforms. UEV platform at the $30,000, you know, starting price point. We think it's very important to give customers choice and give them access to technology. That's gonna be a key part of what we are doing on a go-forward basis. I would say that, if I wanna just continue on in this theme a little bit because it is something, as you said, I'm passionate about. We're gonna also continue to give the customers choice as it relates to Apple CarPlay. We think that that is a product that our customers really enjoy. So we're gonna continue to allow them to have access to that. We also are going to bring in Gemini in 2026 as soon as that's available. And we're also going to continue to develop native apps that are going to enable us to get deeply connected with our customers. We've been doing this already. And some of the latest apps and features that we have natively developed within Ford have just gone up at about 20 points in engagement levels from our prior version of SYNC 4. So what you're seeing is this combination of bringing the best from the outside, complementing it with what we know about our customer base, you know, complementing it with native apps and bringing that all together across the entire portfolio of products. Just one last one on this. In light of this push to be, and I think we just addressed it a moment ago, but to be more capital efficient. Mm-hmm. What is that balance now of go it alone versus having partners on which you can rely on, be it for electrical architecture, network architecture, ADAS, etc.? How do you get that right balance? So, you know, we're gonna continue to look at trade-offs and, you know, buy versus build. And as you look at things like L4, there's probably a much better perspective to be looking at partnerships. And this really goes across all of the decisions that we make for capital outlays. We think that there's wonderful opportunities for partnership. We have some really great partners today. We may have new partners in the future. And this is gonna enable us to be much more efficient with that capital outlay over time. Okay. One last one on free cash flow before capital allocation before I open it up. The 40%-50% distribution of your free cash flow to shareholder returns, is that still the right framework or does the macro environment change the view on that? And can you hold the base dividend even if you're maybe outside of the scope of that in a given year? I think what I look at most important metric is how is our free cash flow doing? And if you look at our free cash flow to date, year to date, it's been about $5.7 billion. We're continuing to have very good free cash flow. Our free cash flow over the last three years has been greater equal to or greater than 65%, you know, despite our goal of about 50%-60%. So the business is really providing a lot of positive free cash flow. So as we then look at, you know, where we're reinvesting and how we're gonna be spending that money, it is incredibly important to us to provide consistency to our shareholders. You will notice that at Q3 when we ended, we said that we wanna have a minimum of $20 billion of cash on our balance sheet. We had 33. We had $13 billion of buffer. That buffer enables us to handle the different uncertainties that can happen in a business, a big automotive business like our own, and still be able to provide that level of distributions to our shareholders on a regular, consistent basis. So I look at free cash flow conversion. I look at usages of the cash. And I also like the fact that we are committed to keeping a strong balance sheet. Anything unusual in the free cash flow this year related to working capital or restructuring or recall payments that reverses next year or is this a sustainable level? Absolutely. So in Q4, you'll note that we had $5.7 billion of year-to-date free cash flow by the time we ended Q3. We then guided at the end of Q3 that we would have $2-$3 billion in free cash flow for the year. We are going to have negative free cash flow in Q4. And the reason for that is Novelis. And that is expected whenever we've had big events happen, supply shocks like COVID, things like this in the future. What happens is you continue to pay your payables at a heightened rate, but your wholesales are reduced when you're taking your wholesales down, like we mentioned, by 90-100,000 units. So you are gonna see a free cash flow impact in Q4. And that does have a reversal effect as we get into 2026, as we have that makeup capacity. And over time, what you're gonna see happen is that there's going to be an adjustment where eventually that free cash flow is going to match the even. Okay. We have time to squeeze in one question. Any questions in the room? On the opportunity front, I look at Ford Pro. Mm-hmm. Is your European business ballpark similar margins as what we see with Ford Pro, you know, consolidated? And if true, what does that imply about the passenger car European business in Europe and how that's operating, your scale? Is that an area that could be under strategic review? I'm just kinda thinking about the opportunity 'cause I think Ford Pro Europe does pretty well, but I don't know if you've actually confirmed that. Yeah. So I would say I can talk in general terms about it. So you're gonna see the same type of phenomenon in Europe as you're seeing in the United States. You're gonna have a very strong, you know, pro business. The margins are gonna be stronger there. Now in Europe, you're dominated a bit more in EV. So you're gonna have that pressure downward on the EV profitability relative to the profitability of Pro. So that is gonna bring you down. But while that compliance environment remains as it is, it's gonna be important for us to continue to maintain that mix. We've got a fresh lineup of EV products. We just had the best order take, that we've had with these products in Q3. So we know that those products are in strong demand, which is great for us. The flip side of that is Ford Pro Europe is doing well. Mm-hmm. With nice prospects in the next several years. What about the passenger car or the retail pass car side of Ford Europe? Is that something that is under strategic review in terms of restructuring, downsizing? I assume it's a fairly tough outlook for Europe. The answer was just referring to the EVs and the fact that we have those three products out there right now that are doing quite well. We have other products in market as well. And yes, we're always under strategic review. As we've said before, we recognize, you know, clearly what's happening in the market today. And we'll share more information as we can. Thank you. Yeah. Great. You're welcome. All right. We'll leave it there. Sherry, Lynn, Grace, thank you so much. Thank you. What a pleasure. Thank you.
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