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Third Quarter 2025 Results November 5, 2025
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2 Forward-looking Statements This presentation contains, and of Warrior Met Coal, Inc.’s (the “Company”, “WMC” or “Warrior”) officers and representatives may from time to time make, forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, believes or anticipates will or may oc cur in the future are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the development of longwall operations (including the schedule for commissioning towards full production) anticipated expenditures on, anticipated financial performa nce of the Company related to, and the quality of coal to be produced from, the Blue Creek project, as well as statements regarding sales and pr oduction growth, ability to maintain cost structure, demand, pricing trends, profitability and cash flow generation, management of expenses, the Company's future ability to create value for stockholders, i nflationary pressures, and expected capital expenditures. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “estimate,” “project,” “target,” “foresee,” “should,” “would,” “could,” “potential,” “outlook,” “guidance” or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward -looking. These forward-looking statements represent management’s good faith expectations, projections, guidance, or beliefs concerning future events, and it is possible that the results described in this press release will not be achieved. These forward -looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of the Company’s control, that could cause actua l results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward -looking statements, including, without limitation, fluctuations or changes in the pricing or demand for the Company’s coal (or met co al generally) by the global steel industry, including the risk of a continued decline in the index price for premium low -vol steelmaking coal; the impact of global pandemics, including the impact of any suc h pandemic, on its business and that of its customers, including the risk of a decline in demand for the Company's met coal due to the impact of any such pandemic on steel manufacturers; the impact of i nflation on the Company, the impact of geopolitical events, including the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war; the inability of the Company to effectively operate its mines and th e resulting decrease in production; the inability of the Company to transport its products to customers due to rail performance issues or the impact of weather and mechanical failures at the Mc Duffie Terminal at the Port of Mobile; federal and state tax legislation; changes in interpretation or assumptions and/or updated regulatory guidance regarding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and t he One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025; legislation and regulations relating to the Clean Air Act and other environmental initiatives; regulatory requirements associated with federal, state and local regul atory agencies, and such agencies’ authority to order temporary or permanent closure of the Company’s mines; operational, logistical, geological, permit, license, labor and weather -related factors, includi ng equipment, permitting, site access, operational risks and new technologies related to mining and labor strikes or slowdowns; the timing and impact of planned longwall moves; the Company’s obligations surrounding reclamation and mine closure; inaccuracies in the Company’s estimates of its met coal reserves; any projections or estimates regarding Blue Creek, including the expected returns from this project, if any, and the ability of Blue Creek to enhance the Company's portfolio of assets, the Company's expectations regarding its future tax rate as well as its ability to effectively utilize i ts net operating losses to reduce or eliminate its cash taxes; the Company's ability to develop Blue Creek; the performance of the Blue Creek longwall; the Company’s ability to develop or acquire met coal reserves in an economically feasible manner, including the expansion of the Company’s met coal reserves through a federal lease acquisition; significant cost increases and fluctuations, and delay in th e delivery of raw materials, mining equipment and purchased components; competition and foreign currency fluctuations; fluctuations in the amount of cash the Company generates from operations, incl uding cash necessary to pay any special or quarterly dividend; the Company’s ability to comply with covenants in its indenture relating to its senior secured notes; integration of businesses that the Co mpany may acquire in the future; adequate liquidity and the cost, availability and access to capital and financial markets; failure to obtain or renew surety bonds on acceptable terms, which could affect the Company’s ability to secure reclamation and coal lease obligations; costs associated with litigation, including claims not yet asserted; and other factors described in the Company’s Form 10 -K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and other reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), which could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from tho se contained in any forward-looking statement. The Company’s filings with the SEC are available on its website at www.warriormetcoal.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov . Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and, except as required by law, the Company does n ot undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward -looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for the Company to predict all such factors. Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains certain Non -GAAP financial measures that are used by the Company’s management when evaluating results of operations and cash flows. Non -GAAP financial measures should not be construed as being more important than comparable Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) measures. The defi nition of these Non-GAAP financial measures and detailed reconciliations of these Non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures for the year ended December 31, 2024 can be found in the Appendix. In addition, detailed reconciliations of these Non -GAAP financial measures for certain other historical periods in this presentation can be found in earnings press releases located on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com within the Investors section.
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Warrior: Tier One, Low-Cost Assets for the Global Steel Market 3 Source: Company Information (1) Mst means million short tons (2) Including reserves, resources, and adjacent properties (3) Longwall expected to start early Q1 2026 One of the highest quality mixes of steelmaking coal products in the U.S. • Ramping to 14.0 Mst(1) annual nameplate capacity • Approximate 40 year reserve life(2) • Benchmark-equivalent, premium Low-Vol steelmaking coal product with strong coking properties • Historically achieves near benchmark pricing • Nameplate capacity is 5.6 Mst(1) annually • Approximate 20-year reserve life(2) Mine 7 Underground Operation with Two Longwall Systems • Premium High Vol A steelmaking coal product with strong coking properties • Expected to achieve pricing premium versus most U.S. steelmaking coals • Nameplate capacity is 6.0 Mst (1) annually • Approximate 40 year reserve life assuming a single longwall operation(2) Blue Creek Underground Operation with Single Longwall System(3) • Premium High Vol A steelmaking coal product with strong coking properties • Historically achieves pricing premium versus most U.S. steelmaking coals • Nameplate capacity is 2.4 Mst(1) annually • Approximate 35+ year reserve life(2) Mine 4 Underground Operation with Single Longwall System
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Third Quarter 2025 Highlights 4 (1) 1 short ton (“St”) is equivalent to 0.907185 metric tons. Due to the accelerated startup of the Blue Creek longwall, the Company updated and increased production (approximately 10%) and sales volume guidance for the full year 2025. Commenced the highly anticipated longwall operations at Blue Creek eight months ahead of schedule and on budget, where commissioning towards full production is expected to be completed in early 2026. Won the bidding in the federal coal lease sale of 58 million short tons (“St”)(1) of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves which are accessible by Warrior’s existing facilities and, subject to finalization of a binding lease agreement with the Bureau of Land Management, are therefore anticipated to extend the life of the Company’s mining operations. Achieved record quarterly sales volumes of 2.4 million St, including 378 thousand St sold form the Blue Creek mine. Reduced cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per St by 18% to $100.73 from $123.45 per St, driven by a combination of a variable cost structure, a disciplined approach to cost control and operational efficiency, and enhanced by the inherently lower cost structure of Blue Creek. Declared regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share.
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Key Metrics for Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 vs. 2024 5 For the three months ended September 30, 2025 2024 % Change Tons produced (in 000s St) 2,249 1,917 17% Tons sold (in 000s St) 2,355 1,861 27% Average net selling price (per St) $135.87 $171.92 (21%) Revenue (in millions) $328.6 $327.7 0% Net income (in millions) $36.6 $41.8 (12%) Cash cost of sales*(1) (per St) $100.73 $123.45 18% Adjusted EBITDA* (in millions) $70.6 $78.5 (10%) Free cash flow* (in millions) ($19.5) ($60.6) 68% Adjusted net income* (in millions) $36.6 $41.9 (13%) Diluted EPS/Adjusted Diluted EPS* $0.70 $0.80 (13%) *See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in the Appendix. 1 short ton is equivalent to 0.907185 metric tons. “St” means short ton (1) Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) is based on reported cost of sales and includes items such as freight, royalties, labor, fuel and other similar production and sales cost items, and may be adjusted for other items that, pursuant to GAAP, are classified in the Condensed Statements of Operations as costs other than cost of sales, but relate directly to the costs incurred to produce met coal. Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) is a non-GAAP financial measure which is not calculated in conformity with U.S. GAAP and should be considered supplemental to, and not as a substitute or superior to financial measures calculated in conformity with GAAP.
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Key Metrics for Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 vs. 2024 6 For the nine months ended September 30, 2025 2024 % Change Tons produced (in 000s St) 6,811 6,140 11% Tons sold (in 000s St) 6,746 6,088 11% Average net selling price (per St) $133.92 $198.48 (33%) Revenue (in millions) $926.1 $1,227.8 (25%) Net income (in millions) $34.0 $249.5 (86%) Cash cost of sales*(1) (per St) $104.62 $127.07 18% Adjusted EBITDA* (in millions) $163.7 $394.6 (59%) Free cash flow* (in millions) ($144.7) ($32.8) (341%) Adjusted net income* (in millions) $34.1 $249.8 (86%) Diluted EPS/Adjusted Diluted EPS* $0.65 $4.78 (86%) *See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in the Appendix. 1 short ton is equivalent to 0.907185 metric tons. “St” means short ton (1) Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) is based on reported cost of sales and includes items such as freight, royalties, labor, fuel and other similar production and sales cost items, and may be adjusted for other items that, pursuant to GAAP, are classified in the Condensed Statements of Operations as costs other than cost of sales, but relate directly to the costs incurred to produce met coal. Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) is a non-GAAP financial measure which is not calculated in conformity with U.S. GAAP and should be considered supplemental to, and not as a substitute or superior to financial measures calculated in conformity with GAAP.
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39% 44% 16% 1% YTD 2025 62% 38% Q3 2025 Atlantic Pacific 59% 41% Q3 2024 Atlantic Pacific Customer Volumes by Coal Type and Geography Demonstrates Premium Product Mix and Logistical Cost Advantage to the Seaborne Market in the Quarter 7 56%44% YTD 2025 Customer Volume by Basin Customer Volume by Geography 43% 38% 18% 1% Q3 2025 Europe Asia South America US 57% 43% YTD 2024 44% 41% 15% 0% Q3 2024 Europe Asia South America US 39% 43% 17% 1% YTD 2024 57% 43% Q3 2025 PLV HVA 70% 30% Q3 2024 PLV HVA Customer Volume by Coal Type 56%44% YTD 2025 69% 31% YTD 2024
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Leverage and Liquidity Ratio 8 *See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”. (1) Calculated as of September 30, 2025, and represents total long-term debt of $154.1 million, plus financing lease obligations of $82.5 million, less cash and cash equivalents of $336.3 million, short-term investments of $46.4 million, net of $9.8 million posted as collateral, and long-term investments of $2.0 million. (2) Represents consolidated net cash of ($148.1) million divided by Adjusted EBITDA for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025 of $216.9 million. (3) Calculated as of September 30, 2025, and represents total long-term debt of $154.1 million plus financing lease obligations of $82.5 million divided by Adjusted EBITDA for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025 of $216.9 million. (4) Short-term investments is net of $9.8 million posted as collateral for self-insured black lung liability related claims. (5) Net of outstanding letters of credit of $2.5 million. Leverage (trailing twelve months ended Sept. 30, 2025) Adjusted EBITDA* 216.9$ Consolidated Net Cash* (1) (148.1) Net Leverage Ratio (2) (0.68x) Gross Leverage Ratio (3) 1.09x Liquidity (as of September 30, 2025) Cash and Cash Equivalents 336.3$ Short-term investments (4) 46.4 Long-term investments 2.0 Asset-Based Revolving Credit Agreement Availability (5) 140.5 Total Liquidity 525.2$ Financial Metrics ($ in millions except ratios)
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Breaking Down Warrior’s 2025 Capital Expenditures 9 2025 Capex Guidance Detail versus Actual ($ in millions) Sustaining Guidance QTD Actuals YTD Actuals High End Q3 2025 Q3 2025 Mines $90 $18 $51 Gas operations 10 1 4 Total Sustaining $100 $19 $55 Discretionary Guidance QTD Actuals YTD Actuals High End Q3 2025 Q3 2025 Blue Creek $250 $64 $171 Total Discretionary $250 $64 $171 Total $350 $83 $226 Approximately $887.7 million spent on Blue Creek project-to-date. Three CM units were in operation and produced 774 thousand short tons year to date in 2025. Commenced the highly anticipated longwall operations at Blue Creek in October 2025, eight months ahead of schedule and on budget, where commissioning towards full production is expected to be completed in early 2026. Blue Creek Project Update 2025 Capex Guidance ($ in millions) Capex Low End High End Existing Mines $90 $100 Blue Creek Project $225 $250 Total Capex $315 $350
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2025 Updated Guidance(1) (1) This guidance is subject to many risks that may impact performance, such as global trade and tariff uncertainties, market conditions in the steel and steelmaking coal industries and overall global economic and competitive conditions, all as more fully described under Forward-Looking Statements. The Company will continue to evaluate the impact of trade and tariff uncertainties on its business for the remainder of the year. *See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in the Appendix. The Company does not provide reconciliations of its outlook for cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) to cost of sales in reliance on the unreasonable efforts exception provided for under Rule 100(a)(2) of Regulation G. The Company is unable, without unreasonable efforts, to forecast certain items required to develop the meaningful comparable GAAP cost of sales. These items typically included non-cash asset retirement obligation accretion expenses and other non-recurring indirect mining expenses that are difficult to predict in advance in order to include a GAAP estimate. 1 short ton is equivalent to 0.907185 metric tons. 10 Coal Sales 9.2-9.6 Mst Coal Production 9.4-9.8 Mst Cash Cost of Sales (Free-on- Board Port)* $105-$110 per St Capital Expenditures for Existing Mines $90 - $100mm Blue Creek Project $225 - $250mm Mine Development $85 - $100mm Depreciation and Depletion $185 - $210mm S,G&A $65 - $75mm Interest Expense $10 - $15mm Interest Income $15 - $20mm Due to the accelerated startup of the Blue Creek Longwall, the Company is updating and increasing its production (approximately 10%) and sales volume guidance for full year 2025
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Update of Improved Transformational Blue Creek Project
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Project Update: Eight Months Ahead of Schedule and On Budget 12 Source: Company information Warrior proactively expanded the original project scope by $130M in 2023 Dramatically improves transportation plan — adding overland belt and rail loadout De-risks ability to deliver product to Port of Mobile via multiple channels Other changes to budget and to operating plan include new mining best practices and technological advances developed since the start of the project Strong execution allowed the team to mitigate unprecedented inflationary pressures on the Blue Creek Project the last three years Total capital expenditure estimate reiterated in a range of: $995M to $1.075B Project to date capital expenditure spend as of 9/30/25: $887.7M Overall project is advancing on schedule and on budget: Continuous miner development commenced as expected in 3Q 2024 Preparation plant module A commenced in 2Q 2025 and remaining modules in October 2025 First sales of Blue Creek coal occurred early in 2Q 2025 Overland Belt completed in October 2025 Longwall startup commenced eight months ahead of schedule in October 2025 State of the art equipment = lower maintenance capex
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Hitting All Major Project Milestones On Schedule or Earlier 13 Source: Company information Q3 2024 Middle of 2025 Middle of 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
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Appendix/Reconciliations
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Appendix 15 *See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”. 1 short ton is equivalent to 0.907185 metric tons. For the three months ended September 30, 2025 (Unaudited) For the three months ended September 30, 2024 (Unaudited) Short Tons Metric Tons Short Tons Metric Tons Tons sold (in 000s) 2,355 2,137 1,861 1,688 Tons produced (in 000s) 2,249 2,040 1,917 1,739 Average net selling price per ton $135.87 $149.73 $171.92 $189.54 Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per ton* $100.73 $111.00 $123.45 $136.10
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Appendix 16 *See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”. 1 short ton is equivalent to 0.907185 metric tons. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025 (Unaudited) For the nine months ended September 30, 2024 (Unaudited) Short Tons Metric Tons Short Tons Metric Tons Tons sold (in 000s) 6,746 6,120 6,088 5,523 Tons produced (in 000s) 6,811 6,179 6,140 5,570 Average net selling price per ton $133.92 $147.61 $198.48 $218.79 Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per ton* $104.62 $115.32 $127.07 $140.07
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures Source: Company filings (1) Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income before net interest income, net, income tax (benefit) expense, depreciation and depletion, non-cash asset retirement obligation accretion, non-cash stock compensation expense, other non-cash accretion, non-cash mark-to-market gain on gas hedges and business interruption expenses. Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure of financial performance in accordance with GAAP, and we believe items excluded from Adjusted EBITDA are significant to a reader in understanding and assessing our financial condition. Therefore, Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered in isolation, nor as an alternative to net (loss) income, income from operations, cash flows from operations or as a measure of our profitability, liquidity or performance under GAAP. We believe that Adjusted EBITDA presents a useful measure of our ability to incur and service debt based on ongoing operations. Furthermore, analogous measures are used by industry analysts to evaluate our operating performance. Investors should be aware that our presentation of Adjusted EBITDA may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. (2) Adjusted EBITDA margin is defined as Adjusted EBITDA dividend by total revenues. Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA(1) and Adjusted EBITDA margin (2) to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP 17 (in thousands) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Net income 36,598$ 41,766$ 34,036$ 249,467$ Interest income, net (2,128) (7,257) (7,508) (22,616) Income tax (benefit) expense (13,746) 4,607 (15,466) 32,248 Depreciation and depletion 43,594 36,642 132,126 114,815 Asset retirement obligation accretion 1,331 1,302 3,993 3,897 Stock compensation expense 5,211 874 15,309 15,061 Other non-cash accretion 494 451 1,483 1,353 Non-cash mark-to-market gain on gas hedges (710) - (295) - Business interruption (3) 107 19 409 Adjusted EBITDA 70,641$ 78,492$ 163,697$ 394,634$ Total revenues 328,589$ 327,720$ 926,055$ 1,227,755$ Adjusted EBITDA margin (2) 21.5% 24.0% 17.7% 32.1% For the three months ended September 30, (Unaudited) For the nine months ended September 30, (Unaudited)
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures Source: Company filings (1) Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities less purchases of property, plant and equipment and mine development costs. Free cash flow is not a measure of financial performance in accordance with GAAP, and we believe items excluded from net cash provided by operating activities are significant to the reader in understanding and assessing our results of operations. Therefore, free cash flow should not be considered in isolation, nor as an alternative to net cash provided by operating activities under GAAP. We believe free cash flow is a useful measure of performance and we believe it aids some investors and analysts in comparing us against other companies to help analyze our current and future potential performance. Free cash flow may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. (2) Free cash flow conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by Adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow(1) and Free Cash Flow Conversion(1) to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP 18 (in thousands) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Net cash provided by operating activities $ 104,694 $ 62,208 $ 153,157 $ 313,241 Purchases of property, plant and equipment and mine development costs (124,232) (122,778) (297,830) (346,086) Free cash flow(1) $ (19,538) $ (60,570) $ (144,673) $ (32,845) Adjusted EBITDA 70,641$ 78,492$ 163,697$ 394,634$ Free cash flow conversion(2) -27.7% -77.2% -88.4% -8.3% For the three months ended September 30, (Unaudited) For the nine months ended September 30, (Unaudited)
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Income(1) to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP 19 Source: Company filings (1) Adjusted net income is defined as net income net of business interruption expenses, net of tax (based on each respective period’s effective tax rate). Adjusted net income is not a measure of financial performance in accordance with GAAP, and we believe items excluded from adjusted net income are significant to the reader in understanding and assessing our results of operations. Therefore, adjusted net income should not be considered in isolation, nor as an alternative to net income under GAAP. We believe adjusted net income is a useful measure of performance and we believe it aids some investors and analysts in comparing us against other companies to help analyze our current and future potential performance. Adjusted net income may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. (in thousands) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Net income 36,598$ 41,766$ 34,036$ 249,467$ Business interruption, net of tax (2) 85 15 323 Adjusted net income 36,596$ 41,851$ 34,051$ 249,790$ Weighted average number of diluted shares outstanding 52,650 52,394 52,578 52,221 Adjusted diluted net income per share: $0.70 $0.80 $0.65 $4.78 For the three months ended September 30, (Unaudited) For the nine months ended September 30, (Unaudited)
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Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliation of Cash Cost of Sales (Free-on-Board Port)(1) to Cost of Sales Reported Under U.S. GAAP 20 Source: Company filings (1) Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) is based on reported cost of sales and includes items such as freight, royalties, labor, fuel and other similar production and sales cost items, and may be adjusted for other items that, pursuant to GAAP, are classified in the Condensed Statements of Operations as costs other than cost of sales, but relate directly to the costs incurred to produce met coal. Our cash cost of sales per short ton is calculated as cash cost of sales divided by the short tons sold. Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) is a non-GAAP financial measure which is not calculated in conformity with U.S. GAAP and should be considered supplemental to, and not as a substitute or superior to financial measures calculated in conformity with GAAP. We believe cash cost of sales (free-on- board port) is a useful measure of performance and we believe it aids some investors and analysts in comparing us against other companies to help analyze our current and future potential performance. Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. (in thousands) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Cost of sales $ 239,525 $ 231,598 $ 711,672 $ 778,489 Asset retirement obligation accretion (965) (702) (2,896) (2,107) Stock compensation expense (1,344) (1,152) (3,028) (2,777) Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port)(1) $ 237,216 $ 229,744 $ 705,748 $ 773,605 For the three months ended September 30, (Unaudited) For the nine months ended September 30, (Unaudited)
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Source: Company information