We will get going here with the next session. I'd first like to say welcome, thanks for being here. I have Chris Swift, Chairman, CEO. Beth Costello, CFO. I'm going to start it with just a high-level question. In mid-2021, you put forth some financial projections. Can you talk about some of the things you've executed on, some of the things you're still making progress towards? What are the areas of focus here for the next year? Sure. I would say first, it's always good to be here with you at your global headquarters. We make it very convenient for ourselves. Yeah. As you should. It's good to be with everyone and trying to get back to as much normalcy as we can. I would say over the last, say, 18 months, two years, I'm really pleased with the overall performance of the organization, really top to bottom. I'll just summarize some of the stats I provided during the third quarter earnings call that I think evidences the fact that we're performing at a high level. We've been able to grow core earnings 18%, 27% on an EPS basis, given our share buyback programs. We've been able to grow commercial top line about 12%. Commercial underlying combined ratios are 88.5. If you look at what we've done with our capital, we've returned about $1.6 billion to shareholders. We raised the dividend for the 10th consecutive year. You put that all together on a cumulative basis, we earned a 14.1% ROE for the first nine months of the year. I think by any measure, we're performing exceptionally well. If I take back even a further step and say strategically, we've gotten two deals integrated. We've finished restructuring the firm over the last three years. We've been investing both in our technology, digital capabilities, our product sets, as I like to call it. We knew we needed to expand some of our underwriting capabilities and product breadth. We had the distribution. We still have wonderful distribution, but we always felt we could put more through it. We've done all that, I just like to always remind investors that I think our peak performance is still to come. There's a compounding effect of all the activities and improvements and investments that we have been making, and continue to do that. If I look over the next six to eight quarters, I'm still very confident in our ability to perform at this high level and continue to generate superior returns. If you really say, what's the real focus? I wouldn't tell you all our detailed real focuses, but I would give you themes associated with there's still a technology journey we want to complete, and that ultimately involves moving to the cloud. There are major investments in one of our businesses, Group Benefits, from a platform side that we need to modernize a 40-year-old platform. I think we're going to continue to maximize the benefit of our full product breadth. But there are go-to-market strategies that we're refining, in essence, to capture more market share. Those are just a couple of them that come to mind. First and foremost is every day, every week, every month, we got to have our hands around the levers that produce the superior results that we're generating, whether it be pricing, returns, or excuse me, retention, new business discounts. Just managing the nuts and bolts of what we're asking our underwriters to do every day is critical. Beth and I and the team feel very, very confident that we get our arms around all the metrics and all the data we should be seeing to make those good risk-return trade-offs. Got it. That's very helpful. Next, I wanted to get your perspective on the environment, more generally for commercial property and casualty insurance. We've obviously gone through a period of prolonged price increases. We have inflationary pressures on loss costs. When we think through all those things, how do you feel about your price adequacy at this point in your positioning and willingness to grow? At a macro level, we feel good. We still think it is a good time to think about expanding margins from a portfolio side. As you know, everything then becomes a trade-off by line of business and where specific lines of businesses are in sort of a cyclical nature. You put it all together, I still feel good, and I'll tell you why specifically. Generally, in an inflationary environment, P&C companies perform pretty well. I'm sure Beth will talk about the investment portfolio, what that means. Generally, as exposures rise or values rise, there's opportunities to expand margins. Feel very comfortable that we have our arms around that environment. If you go top to bottom on a product line basis, we still see the need to be disciplined, and I think the smart management companies and teams will continue to be very disciplined on pricing because whether there's social inflation coming out of the court system, whether there be supply chain lingering inflation, whether there be Climate change, if you really want to get specific on the property market, and the reinsurers are driving price there. Just inflationary trends. I'd like to describe it on a secondary effect from all the social inflation activity. We have to keep up with loss cost trends. I think we will as an industry because one, it's needed, and two, I think everyone generally has pretty good insights into what's happening with their books. I'll spare you the by product line. Some are going to enjoy double-digit price increases, thinking casualty lines. Other lines, like E&O, D&O, are going to give back some rate. If you put it all together, the books of businesses, at least that we manage, are highly profitable, and I believe they will stay that way again over the next six to eight quarters. One of the things companies have talked about is they've discussed margin expansion has been this concept of unit exposure, it's not just economic growth, it's also the inflation aspect, higher insured values and so forth. I was hoping you could help us think through how impactful that's been for your margin improvement. Do we need to consider anything about that potentially becoming less of a tailwind? Who knows whether we get a recession and so forth, but I would think even just with some moderating of inflation, you would expect that maybe that becomes a little less of a tailwind as we look into 2023. I'll start, and I'll ask Beth to add her commentary. Clearly, it's been beneficial. That's part of if we're in a, hopefully becoming a mild inflationary environment after inflation sort of spiked, generally that's positive. There's people at this conference that I'm sure you've interviewed. We've talked about it on our earnings call. When you talk about units of risk, units of risk have been expanding, but that's new risk. Conversely, if you have existing risk profiles that are getting paid more or if insured values are going up because of equipment or property values are going up, that is the component that sort of acts as rates going forward. Who knows really what's going to happen in the future and where the Fed is trying to land the gross economy. Generally, I still think it's going to be helpful to us in our ability to maintain or expand margins in the future. Beth, what would you add? The only thing I'd add to this conversation because I think it's definitely as you look at the rates that we post, obviously that has been a benefit. The inflationary pressures have also put pressure on our loss costs. To some extent that rate that we're getting that is manifesting itself in those inflation trends is offsetting some of that loss trend. If inflationary pressures start to dissipate, we also see the loss cost trends would change a little bit too. There's a little bit of a buffer there. We look at it as it's provided us some protection on the loss cost piece. It's not as if all of that additional rate just goes into margin because you have to think about the cost of the goods that we're selling. I think the key point in sort of the aggregate as we sit here today, and we said it in our third quarter call, we still think we're in aggregate, making about 100 basis points spread on a written basis between our cost of goods sold estimated and our total rate that acts as price. That's helpful. Next one I have to you is on property pricing. There's obviously been a ton of focus following Hurricane Ian, and I think some of the issues leading up to Hurricane Ian. A lot of focus on repricing of catastrophe reinsurance and to what degree it spills into other areas. I guess I'd just be interested in your perspective on what do you see in terms of as a primary pricing for property, what kind of increases do you think the industry will need to make in response to all that? Yeah. It's probably obvious to everyone here in the room. It's the most dynamic part of the market these days, particularly the last two weeks of the year. I would say just again, the context of our commentary in this area is going to be we have property capabilities in small, middle, large, and E&S. From a portfolio side, The Hartford is underweight property risk today. It's actually one of our growth areas, and we think it's actually a pretty decent time to sort of lean in in a thoughtful way. You've got to make sure that we're getting, not on a widespread cat basis, but just widespread property. Again, you've got to be very disciplined in making sure that you're making adequate risk-adjusted returns. I would say, again, observations more than anything, Alex, is that those that have had high leverage to reinsurance in their business model are probably most at risk. Those organizations that use reinsurance as a capital management tool or in some cases to manage some volatility should be fine. Prices are going up. I can let Beth share her point of view, we're in the market right now. As we sit here today, we've already made projections of where we see our reinsurance source going in 2023 because we're quoting business in January 1, February 1, March 1, and April 1 right now. Our mechanism then is to true up to our final reinsurance costs once they become known and once we sort of lock in our firm order terms. Beth, what would you add? Yes. Our cat renewals, our cat treaties have a one-one renewal, so those are per occurrence treaties. Then also we have an aggregate. As Chris said, we're in the market now. Just to sort of size, our premium associated with those programs in 2022 was a little under $100 million. Again, it's not a significant spend for us. As Chris said, we are anticipating to see increases and going through that process now. One thing that we've done to structure our program for many years is our top two layers that are $300 million of coverage each, we renew a third of that every year. When we've been renewing in the past, we renew it for three years. There's always a third of the contract that's coming up for renewal. That helps us a little bit too, as we think about going out for the market. Our performance on our treaties has been very good for our reinsurers. I think they recognize us as very good underwriters. As I said, we're managing through the process. We're not looking at making any wholesale changes in our program. We'll obviously look at where the costs come in by layer and make our final judgments and share that with all of you when we report our fourth quarter earnings. One last point is just to remind investors, we do have an assumed reinsurance business, relatively modest, maybe about $450 million-$500 million of premium. It will benefit from the hardening market. We consider it more of a specialty reinsurer. It's not a heavy cat-exposed type of reinsurer, so think in terms of specialty risk, casualty risk, a little bit of surety, a little bit of trade credit, political violence, and excess casualty here in the U.S. It does have some property exposures coming from various parts of the world, including the U.S. There's been some talk recently of competitive differences between the standard lines versus the E&S lines, and I thought I'd get your perspective on that. Are you finding that the standard lines market is getting more competitive? Is your positioning in small business in particular allow you to be a little insulated from what's going on? Well, I think the competitive positioning in both markets is increasing, right? They're both highly competitive markets, but still fairly rational. When you think of us as a standard line carriers, and now with the Navigators acquisition an E&S capability where we've got over $1 billion of E&S premiums coming through the new distribution channels that, and new relationships that we've had or inherited from Navigators, I'd like our positioning to be able to play in both markets. I think structurally, the E&S market is going through a change and will become a larger percentage of the commercial line pool going forward, just because of the great flexibility in terms and condition and pricing that you get, particularly for property risk and maybe certain elements of excess casualty risk going forward. We like our positioning. We play in both obviously. We manage both on a separate basis so that there's no conflicts. I think we picked the right time to purchase Navigators to be in the E&S marketplace, and we like our positioning. One specific point I would just share with you, maybe a little bit deeper on some of the go-to-market strategies. We do have a strategy to become a larger player in the E&S market in small commercial. You'll see us using our industry-leading tools, which is ICON and our data and analytics capabilities to be more of a major player in the E&S side of small commercial. That's mostly a casualty play and a property play. We think, again, with the capabilities that we have, the distribution we have, that's a logical extension of our marketplace to capture more market share. The next one I have for you is a little bit of a high-level question on your small and medium targeted market, that you really seem to have a bit of a differentiated franchise in. What are some of the things you do that differentiate the way you distribute product, that what's allowed you to be successful in that part of the market that may shield you from the discussion of some other larger competitors that are talking about trying to get bigger in that area? I boil it down just simply, it's an area that we've consistently invested in over 40 years, and we've committed ourselves to the small end of business. We have great insights, great data, great tools. It really comes down to, and if Stephanie Bush were here who leads this business, she would say it's just really simply three things, speed, accuracy, and just reliability. Speed matters when you're dealing with agents and brokers that are dealing with large volumes, but small premium values. You got to be quick, you got to be accurate to give them a bindable quote. Once you commit to it, you got to press the button, and it basically goes through to issuance. That's sort of the certainty side. Built, I think, a wonderful machine. We continue to invest in it to always be differentiated. If you look at any outside-in view, Celent is one of those raters of firms' capabilities. We've been number one four years in a row. There's a 20-point difference between us and our nearest competitors, and our aim and our goal is to maintain that differentiation. Also part of it is, though, the innovation in our product sets, too. We've reinvented the BOP, our Spectrum product once. It's going to go through another reinvention. How we interact with that agent that is producing business for their customers is centered to our thinking. We'll always have some experiments in other areas, Alex, but we're still committed to the agency and broker channel because that's where 95-plus% of the premiums are these days. Got it. You can't do one of these sessions without me asking about social inflation. As the courts have more fully reopened, have you gotten enough clarity from the pipes being cleared out from the pandemic and getting through a lot of the delayed settlements and so forth, that you have enough visibility at this point to sort of know where things stand and feel like you're fully priced for that kind of environment? Yeah. The nature of this area is complex, right? Point of views, and Beth will add her color, too. The court systems are fully opened, but there's still a backlog, right? Most people are getting back or continuing to work in a hybrid environment. I wouldn't say the backlogs have cleared in any material meaningful way. There's still backlogs. 2, all our data shows either on an aggregate basis by region, by product line, the effects of social inflation is dramatic. Meaning that awards settlements are just getting more costly to settle. That's not even dealing then with the frequency of nuclear verdicts that everyone is exposed to. That's sort of that halo effect or secondary effect that I talked about in our litigious society. Everyone thinks they're owed more for whatever injury or event happened. Look, that's what insurance is for, to sort of protect businesses and individuals from liability. I would say that the expectation of higher settlement values is real, and that's why you got to continue to be disciplined on pricing and anticipate that six, seven, eight, maybe even 10 points of trend that you need to get into your cost of goods sold. You need to charge your customers the appropriate rate, work with the agents to explain them why that is needed, and it sort of becomes that cycle that you got to manage. You got to be on top of your data first and foremost, and I think we are, Beth. Yes, I would agree. I think you touched on all the components and how we talk about it from watching actual loss trends, how we incorporate our views of that into our pricing models to stay on top of trend. There's a very tight connection between what our claims folks are seeing, what our actuarial team is seeing, what our business partners are seeing, so we can put all that together because you don't want to get behind. I agree with Chris that although courts have reopened, you still sort of feel a little bit of a backlog, which we take into consideration as we make our loss reserve calls. If I could share just personally with you, and I hope I don't offend anyone in the room or their firms, but the number 1 invention in this area that's been absolutely terrible for American society is litigation financing. It's fundamentally backwards. Fundamentally. If you think about a system to, again, fairly compensate people who are injured, and then you're trying to put a profit margin on top of that for capital providers, that's bullshit. All right. We'll pivot over to personal auto with that. I want to touch on this. Obviously, the industry's pressured. You have a little bit of a unique business. You have focused a bit more on the AARP group. What is your experience so far, and what do you need to do to sort of restore full profitability in that business? Well, it's challenging, right? I think it's the macro environment all personal lines carriers are facing today, so we're not immune from it. I would say that our book of business tends to be a little bit more preferred, a little bit more stable, and it probably has a basis difference of performance compared to a national book of business, both on the auto and home. I think the simple strategy that we laid out at the end of third quarter is that the book just needs more rate on auto. We've been actually fairly disciplined in keeping up with rate on the homeowner side, if you look at a 12-quarter trend. We're going to try to get about eight, nine points of rate in the book in the fourth quarter, and then by mid-2023, hope to get about 14, 15 points of rate into the book so that at least on a written basis, as we close out 2024 excuse me, 2023 and head into 2024, I think we have a shot to make our targeted profitabilities By the second half of 2024. As things earn in, as we still expect inflation to be high but moderating. Okay. The moderation is occurring today. I look at used car prices quite a bit. I look at other supply chains. I look at cargo shipment all around the world. There is a coming slowdown, and I hope it continues to come and maybe even accelerates, but that's one still the great variables. Sure That we're just going to have to manage. I think the only, again, positive thing, particularly about our platform is we're rolling out a new platform that gives us greater flexibility with six-month policies as opposed to 12-month policies, and greater flexibility, particularly in auto and home, where we don't have lifetime renewability agreements. That is important, particularly as we roll out that platform we call Prevail to. About 45, 46 states in 2023. New business only. The in-force is going to stay where it is, at least for the time being. At least the new business we're putting on our books, we could be much more reactive and responsive to trends. Got it. As we've looked across some of the mutuals and even one of the stock companies, there's been some reserve refinements over the last couple quarters that have been sizable. I'd just be interested in your approach to reserving, if you've seen anything as you've gone through your reserve reviewing process. I'll start. You can add anything you want, Chris. We look at the majority of our lines every quarter and, specifically on personal lines obviously has been a focus. As I look at maybe first addressing prior years, I feel very comfortable with where we put our loss picks for 2021. Continue to monitor, obviously, those reserves, but things, for the most part, in line with what we expected. We had a little bit of actually favorable releases in the third quarter that related to, I think, the 2018 year in auto. As it relates to the 2022 accident year, obviously watching that very closely, and as we've shared previously, our loss picks for the auto line have been higher than what we would've anticipated at the beginning of the year. It's why we said in our second quarter earnings call that we anticipated to be 1-2 points above the high end of the underlying combined ratio guidance that we had provided for personal lines. I'd expect we'll be pretty close to that 2 points above. We're very focused on getting our 2022 accident year pick appropriate, watching lots of trends. We've, in the third quarter, had seen some increases in frequency, some impacts in bodily injury that we reacted to, and would anticipate we'll see more of that in the fourth quarter. I feel our process is very tight. It's always difficult when trends are changing underneath, which is why we're so connected with our claims folks, and really understanding what they're seeing and being able to react to that and ensure that we're providing appropriate provisions that allow us to feel good about the accident year. It's really just a lot of analysis, a lot of back and forth and making our best calls. Got it. Next topic I had was workers' compensation. We've seen some of these NCCI price decreases that have come out in certain states recently, and I know that doesn't always translate exactly to what your pricing will look like in a given state. Could you talk high level about what you're seeing in workers' compensation pricing? Are you able to achieve the kind of rate you need to hold up margins on an accident year basis there? Yeah, I would say, again, just context for everyone. It's a line of business we know extremely well. We're the second-largest provider. If you look back at the historical results, and if you look at things in an aggregate standard lines, small and middle, we're operating with accident year combined ratios in the 91-92 range. Again, still highly profitable. Generally trends, frequency and severity have been behaving. I would say frequency, we always keep a watchful eye on it, and generally within expectations in aggregate. Then severity probably is outperforming our long-term assumptions at this point. It's one of those areas you just got to really, really watch. And as Beth, she talks about from a reserving side, you've got to be very cautious to let the reserve season so that you're not releasing excess reserves too quickly. I think we have our arms around that line of business very tightly, and we still like it. We'll still try to grow it where it makes sense, but it is increasingly more challenged, given the rate environment and the rollbacks of rates that we anticipate in 2023. We do anticipate aggregate rate price decreases. We'll have to see what happens with exposures, both new and higher wages, to see how that might offset some of that pure rate decline. Okay. We'll have to continue to watch, obviously, frequencies and severities very closely and react appropriately. I think we got a proven track record that we know how to react and manage in various cycles in this line of business. Did you add anything else? No, I think you've covered off on it all, and we usually like to start and end with what you said, which is it's a very profitable line for us. Even going into the year, we expected to see a small amount of margin compression in small commercial. Given overall how small commercial performs and how that book performs and the growth that we have, that for us is a good trade-off. In middle market, obviously, they feel that pressure, too, but they also have been re-underwriting the book, so they've been able to compensate for some of that compression. Again, a very profitable line, and we know how to manage it. Yeah. Before we end, I want to make sure we touch on net investment income. Rates are obviously a lot higher. Could you talk about the benefit that you're getting from that? Any kind of color on where new money yields are relative to what's rolling off and how that will flow into your earnings there? Yes, we are seeing the benefit in our earnings from rising interest rates on our investment portfolio. We talked about on our third quarter call that looking to the fourth quarter, we'd expect to see about a 10 to 20 basis point increase in NII yield ex limited partnerships. Probably sitting here today, we're probably closer to the high end of that range. Next year, we'd expect to see another 50 to 60. It definitely is providing a tailwind. We've also talked about the fact that as we look at those earnings and the benefit we're seeing there, our objective with our underwriters is that we want to hold on to that benefit. Not looking to incorporate that from a pricing perspective, because I think there's still some uncertainty to know where exactly rates are going to go after we get through 2023. We're very mindful of that. The other component of our portfolio that has performed really well is our limited partnership portfolio. Again, that's comprised of about half of private equity and half of real estate funds. On the real estate side, just have had very strong performance. When we talked about our expectations going into fourth quarter on our third quarter call, we're expecting for the full year to be at the high end of our 8%-10% range that we typically talk about with LPs. I would just say fourth quarter is turning out to be another strong quarter on the real estate side. I think from a full year perspective, we'll be above that. I think the question that then does bring up is what does that mean for 2023? We'll have to see, because there obviously can be some volatility there, especially as you pull forward sales and so forth that remains to be seen. Overall, when we look at our investment portfolio, how we've allocated to various asset classes, just feel very good about how it's performed. Overall credit quality is still looking very strong. We obviously monitor that very closely. Maybe the last question that I'll have for you is just as we think through the next year, looking into 2023, what are some of the biggest opportunities and challenges that you see for The Hartford? Yeah, as I hopefully made clear, I'm optimistic about 2023 and 2024, and just the platform and all the capabilities that we've built, enhanced, or created here. The real opportunities that I see is just competing in the marketplace with what I think is pretty good capabilities. I think I made it clear that we do want to grow our property and general liability capabilities or lines of business after we've invested or acquired some of those capabilities, so that diversification to our portfolio. We didn't talk too much about Group Benefits, but Group Benefits I would just share with the group is back to normal. Always subject to change on any mortality trends, as we called this time last year, we thought the first half of the year would have more severe mortality trends, then the second half of the year would lighten up a little bit, and that's played out well. That business is a steady contributor with good tangible returns on equity in that 14%-15% range. It's the number 3 provider of core capabilities, and we've really built some other voluntary capabilities that are high margin that will continue to gain traction. As I said, there's other go-to-market strategies that we want to continue to maximize our distribution capabilities. There's a lot of opportunity, I think, for us to be thoughtful providers and lean in to expanding our market share as a national company. Great. I think we're at time, I'll leave it there. Thank you very much for being here with us. Thank you. Thanks, Alex.
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