Moving right along, very pleased to have JPMorgan Chase with us, once again, from the company of Daniel Pinto, President and Chief Operating Officer. Daniel, thank you. Thank you. Glad to be here. You know, obviously, we're gonna spend a lot of time talking about JPMorgan Chase this morning. But I'd love to get kind of your macro view of the world, inflation rates, geopolitical elections, obviously a lot going on. Maybe we could start with the consumer. You guys, I think 80 million customers, 11% deposit market share, 17% credit card market share. Yeah. So I think you're more well informed than almost anyone, kind of the real-time view of the health of the consumer. Your kind of unemployment rates have picked up of late. Maybe kind of what are you seeing? What we see is that the U.S. economy, even though we see some slowdown, is doing still okay, and the consumer is the main driver of that growth. What we see is consumption is still there, and we have seen some change in behavior, like discretionary consumption now stabilized, but it came down a bit, and non-discretionary is still growing at a slower pace, but it's growing. The consumer have delevered over a period of time, so the bulk of the mortgages have been refinanced at a lower rate. Employment rate has gone up a bit, but it's still within reasonable levels, and wages is still growing around 3.6% also. The consumers are in a relatively good shape. We see, for example, though, the excess savings coming from the pandemic, those are more or less spent, particularly in the lower segments. The cash buffer in the lower income segment is still elevated historical average because wages are growing faster than inflation, so the picture of the consumer is still not what it was a year ago, but it's still in a solid place. Maybe shift gears, you know, obviously you have a strong relationship with wholesale clients. Maybe kind of your thoughts around business sentiment at the moment. Business sentiment is okay. I think that there is quite a lot of dialogue in M&A, though concerns about geopolitics, concerns about the election in this country, what is going to happen with rates, or not. So the supply chain situation is pretty much normalized, but the tension between the U.S. and China is always an area of concerns. In general, there is dialogue, there is activity going on, but CEOs have in their mind all these concerns, so therefore they are more or less careful. Got it. We could put up the first ARS question that we've been asking all the companies, all the investors for each company, but so I guess you were here two years ago. It sounds like some things have changed since then, you know, others remain the same, but one thing is kind of the Corporate & Investment Banking kind of structure of the company. You combined Commercial Banking and Corporate Banking, or Corporate & Investment Banking, to kind of this new CIB, the Commercial and Investment Bank. Maybe just talk to the rationale and maybe provide some examples of- Yeah Kind of the benefits, or maybe even some challenges that have occurred. These were two very, very successful units. One of the biggest or the biggest C ommercial Bank in the United States, growing international, and the biggest Corporate & Investment Bank in the world. And we've been discussing with Jamie over a long period of time, several years, what is the right time to do this. And I think that the reason why, as it is, that we didn't do it before, several years ago, is because we wanted to be sure that the correct focus on the different client segments was there, that we were not going to be distracted with the large clients and not pay attention to the middle market, which is a huge opportunity in this country and all international. So we allowed this great business to grow to a very, very good place. So at some point, you realize that having two externally reported units give you one challenge, and the challenge is, w here is a client better served? And then as you ended up, every client that become bigger gets transferred to the Corporate & Investment Bank, so this unit would never grow. So I think that by putting it all together allows a proper coverage of the clients, whatever is the best place for them to be served, give us a more effective way to cover more the high end of the middle market outside the United States, a bit more with more resources, rather than just in the Commercial Bank. And over time, you are going to have some efficiencies and things like that. So it makes all the sense in the world. I think that, Jenn and Troy have done a very good job putting it together, and I think that it put us in a better place to compete across client segments, from the middle market all the way to the global, large international companies. You mentioned Jenn and Troy doing a good job putting it together. That kind of used to be your baby. So now with them in charge of the CIB, now, how are you spending most of your time? Well, before I did two things. I was running the Corporate & Investment Bank, and it was the same job as I have now. And the reality was that the strengths of the leaders in each of the lines of business, in Markets, in Payments, in Securities Services, in Banking, really didn't require me to do too much in the day-to-day. So these guys, women, they were running their operations very effectively. So essentially, I oversee a bit of that. But essentially, in the last several years, I've been focused with Jamie in overall management of the company and working with my partners in Wealth Management and Private Bank, or in the Retail Bank, now in the Corporate & Investment Bank, in areas where I believe there are opportunities for these companies, this company to grow. Essentially, I'm still doing pretty much the same. I'm working with Jamie in running the day-to-day and focusing all these areas, including technology, including artificial intelligence, every part of the company to make sure that the company that is performing very, very well continue in the same path. So you mentioned opportunities to grow. So maybe we could kind of maybe run through each of the major business lines and kind of where you see those opportunities. We could, you know, start with CCB. You know, one of the things that struck me at Investor Day was you talked about, you know, 15% deposit market share target, U.S. retail deposits are around 11%, or so now, 20% credit card market share, up from 17%. Let me just talk to how you plan to achieve those objectives, you know, how long it takes, to get there. The opportunity in retail here in the U.S., even though the business is an amazing business as it is, is really, really big. Deposits is one opportunity. We said we've been growing in normal periods around 30 basis points a year in market share in deposits. When you look at all the markets in the United States, and when you look at the markets where we have been there for a long period of time, that have very consolidated presence, we have market shares about 20%, 25%, 26%, things like that. There is a big segment of Markets where we've been for a long time, but not as long, and they are in the 10%, 15%. We've been expanding in the last several years in new markets where we've been for a very short period of time. And in those, in some places, we have 1% market share or 1.5% market share. So just continue investing in expanding the brand, optimizing and expanding the branch network in the new markets, continue creating a great client experience. We may talk later about how we are thinking about covering affluent clients. Things like that will naturally take us to that 15%, and it may be even higher, when you consider how we are doing in Markets over a long time, how we are very consolidated. Credit cards, we've been doing very, very well. So the revolving balances are roughly 25% above where they were pre-pandemic. But one thing hasn't recovered totally yet, which is when you think about number of clients that they are revolving, is still lower, substantially lower, than it was before the pandemic. And that will normalize over time. Just that will give you some growth. We have great assets. We're putting a lot of marketing dollars to continue growing that business through different channels. The investments that we are making in Travel Services, in Connected Commerce, and so we think that there are opportunities. There are opportunities in the starter segment of the population. There are opportunities to grow in business cards and big opportunities in the very, very premium segment, so we think that the credit card business, that is a fantastic business, that we have. I think that we've been growing, and I think that that momentum towards 20% over the next few years is very achievable. Got it. I guess, you know, there's, you know, two initiatives across the firm where you're targeting maybe a slightly different customer base. You know, first, maybe the First Republic integration, kind of taking a different, kind of new approaches with the branches there. Yeah. Second, obviously, U.K. retail banking, we're taking no branches. I guess there was an article yesterday, you hired someone to maybe take that to Germany. Maybe just provide us an update, kind of each of those areas. We focus there on retail. The other opportunity that we're really very focused on is Wealth Management in the sub-$10 million dollar segment. We are really, really small. We have 1.5% market share there, probably even lower. We're making a lot of progress, and essentially the strategy is to use the branch network and put advisors in the branches to capture the trillions of dollars of money that is being managed by someone else, of clients that they have their primary account with us. That is really doing very well. I think that those are the segments where we believe the retail business could continue. First Republic obviously they made a mistake, ended up where they ended up, but the company itself, it was amazing. The quality of the balance sheet, it was great. They got it at the wrong price, but the quality was real. So what we were expecting to get out of the $235 billion in assets that we acquired, performing totally according to plan, slightly better, number one. They did an amazing job servicing affluent clients. And we are learning a bit how we can, in a big company like us, that ended up a bit siloed between Credit Card, Banking, Business Banking, Mortgage, Auto Financing, how we can, for particularly for the millions of affluent clients, to provide a better experience, to have a single point of coverage that allow those customers to really navigate the company better. And we are experimenting in Boston and in New York to have these sort of coverage centers with bankers that will be branded JPMorgan. I think that Mark O'Donovan mentioned that at Investor Day, and see how we can deepen the relationship with those affluent customers that we have, in addition to the bankers that we acquired from First Republic, that they are doing a very good job. So I think that we need to do, and we are going to do, a better job in covering affluent clients, and we think that deepening that relationship will be a big plus for the retail business, and so far, so good, the First Republic. On international retail is going probably better than we were expecting. We are reaching, by now, around $28 billion in deposits. We have 2.3 million customers, 1.5 million, 1.6 million of those are highly engaged. We are adding more products. We are launching joint accounts, we are launching Credit Card, we are progressing with the integration of Nutmeg, the Wealth Management acquisition that we did, that at the moment have around $9 billion-$10 billion in assets under management and growing fast, to make a better and nicer experience through the app. The strategy, it is the same. We are not going to have branches or anything like that. It's all digital, and at some point, we will expand into the rest of Europe, but at no point we are going to. We talked in the last couple of Investor Days about the cash burn of the business, and we are way inside that, even though we are investing, because the business is performing and growing faster. The brand recognition is really very high now, and the client satisfaction is really good. So we need to do a lot of work to keep optimizing the operational size, side of it, just to make it more and more effective and less high- touch and more low- touch, and having a better client experience. So, but really, this one is going well, and we will continue assessing as time goes by. Got it. And maybe turning to CIB, you know, obviously, leading positions in many of the segments you compete in. You know, can you continue to grow share? And then maybe, you know, kind of what sub-pockets of business do you feel like you're not maybe living up to potential? We can expect improvement? In Markets, start with Markets, at the moment, we have 12.3% market share overall between Fixed Income and Equities. We have lost in the last three or four years a bit of market share in Fixed Income. When the wallet grow up again, some of the marginal players they took some of the wallet, but within Equities, we've been growing market share, and we continue to grow market share. According to Coalition, at the moment, we're number one, equal one in Equities. So that franchise is doing very, very well. And it's, but it is a tough business for us and for everyone else. We're going to continue investing in this franchise because I am a strong believer that the wallet in that segment will continue to consolidate, because the wallet now, the overall wallet, has been stable for the last two or three years, a bit up or a bit down. Even at those levels of wallet that is higher than it was in the past is still for banks or players that are not at scale, it is a low return proposition. As the wallet stabilizes, probably it will be more consolidation towards the top 5- 10 players. That is about continuing investing, managing the capital and the liquidity effectively, deepening into the relationship with the big clients. That is going very, very well. In banking, at the moment, 9.1% market share, according to Dealogic. And they are also the rest, but I don't know what is the potential, because at the end, you have conflicts, companies have to pay for the deployment of balance sheet to many banks, but I don't know what is. But probably it's more than 9.1%. So, and there are sectors and segments and geographies where we were not doing as good job as we could have done. So we are investing in hiring some bankers, optimizing our strategy, taking advantage of now the combination of the Commercial Bank and the Corporate & Investment Bank into the new unit. So I think that there is some growth there. Payments, we have done amazingly well. So we almost doubled market share in the last five, six years, we are heading towards 10% global market share in payments, and I think that is another business that it was very obvious to me that many years ago, that such a fragmented business with such a risk, like cyber attacks and things like that, was a need for investment and client experience, was something that marginal players will really struggle, so it was a wallet that it always was going to consolidate. That's why we invested so much. We doubled the market share, as I mentioned, and I think that will continue to grow. The growth is not just because interest rates went up. It's a lot of fee growth because we are winning pretty much everything that we are interested in winning, so we are in a very good position there. And then in Security Services, we are doing a good job. It's a very tight ship. We are a top three player. We continue to grow. We've been investing in technology to create a better client experience, so good returns, so it's a good business. So overall, the Corporate & Investment Bank has opportunities to grow, even though at the moment it's probably the biggest that exists in the world, still got more to go. Wonderful. And I guess, kind of look at Asset and Wealth Management, well run, solid, profitable business. Yeah, with many opportunities. Right. I think that on the, on the asset management side, yeah, we have a fantastic franchise growing amazingly well. We have a great franchise in Real Estate. That is doing fine, but I think that is mainly core and, you can expand into that. We have a great franchise in infrastructure, that is mainly core infrastructure, the less risk, lower return. I think that infrastructure is such a big thing, and it's just growing so much, but I think that expansion of that is the same. We've been analyzing what is our way for the Asset Management company to get into the private credit space. So there are opportunities. The private banking internationally, I think that is a very challenged, very fragmented business. We're adding bankers, we are creating the scale. We have done a lot of work with Mary to optimize the deployment of lending versus non-lending revenues, and we have a better mix that is increasing the returns of that business. So, there are opportunities. It's a very nice little business that is doing amazingly well. We have a lot of opportunities. I guess, in the Asset Management segment, would like an acquisition to kind of increase its contribution, makes sense? So contributions, I think that what we, we've been doing is very surgical, small acquisitions that add to the product offering. I am not a big fan of big acquisitions, because I think that if you put a big with another big, most likely you're going to lose a lot of the assets that you have, because clients need to diversify. They cannot have. So we are looking at everything. We look to thousands of things, and we have exactly- no, not thousands, 450 things we look at. We acquire five little things. So I think that there is- we will continue looking at, but we are in a good place. The other very successful story there is ETF. We have a lot of debate. We were a bit late to the party. What is the right strategy? Clearly, it was not to go and compete in the big- cap ETF with BlackRock, with iShares. What it was, is let's concentrate in managed ETF, and probably today is the most successful managed ETF platform that exists, totally built organically. So I think that there are opportunities there. You need to be smart about it, rather than trying to be everything for everyone, but there are opportunities. Makes sense. All right, maybe shifting to the income statement. Okay. We got to ask the recurring 3Q trading question, and get trading investment banking guidance out of the way. I know September is probably the strongest month of the quarter, so it's a little bit more challenging to come up with a number there. But just, you know, thoughts on how the quarter is progressing. August, obviously, a bit more volatility than maybe anticipated. Just kind of what are you thinking there? So, the quarter is doing fine, so far. In Investment Banking, it will be a solid quarter. We think that we are going to be around 15%± increase versus the third quarter of the previous year, IB fees. And when you look at what is the composition of that, very, very strong performance in Debt Capital Markets, that it continue to be. So what we are expecting in Debt Capital Markets, volumes in Institutional Loans and Leveraged Loans, kind of almost double. It will double from last year, though a lot of that is refinancing, and that comes with smaller fees. But it's a very, very solid activity, very solid performance this quarter in Equity Capital Markets. And in M&A is what we're expecting in M&A for the year is around probably flat volumes to last year, to slightly up. So M&A this quarter is being sort of flattish overall. But overall, banking fees will be around 15%± up. All Markets flattish to slightly positive, probably around 2% or so, plus or minus, mainly driven by Equities. We have very, very strong performance in Equities across the franchise, particularly in derivatives. Fixed Income, a bit weaker performance, driven by not necessarily client flows were fine. It was a bit more challenging environment to monetize client flows, particularly in rates. So Markets flat to slightly up 2%±. Year- over- year. Yeah, yes, on the third quarter of 2023. Got it. And then maybe, you know, net interest income, I think the guidance NII, both with and without Markets, $91 billion for the year. Maybe how you're feeling about that, you know, loan growth industry may be a bit softer than expected, but Card growth seems to be continuing. Yeah, I think that one we are tracking towards a number in that ballpark. So I think that the consensus of the analyst is around $91.5 billion or so. That consensus probably was calculated before the recent reduction in interest rates, but ballpark, we are going to be there. Where I would like to pause for a second is for 2025. So, 2025- That's my next question. Okay, so I'll tell you. 2025, we have the analyst consensus is a drop in NII of $1.5 billion, from $91.5 billion to $90 billion. So that is a bit is not very reasonable because the rate expectations is lower by 250 basis points. So I think that number will be lower. We are not going to guide on that now, but the $90 billion is a bit too high. Clearly, as rates go lower, you have less pressure on repricing of deposits, but as you know, we are quite asset sensitive, so lower interest rates, you see the EaR numbers. So therefore, you can have a sense of what will it be that is lower than what the analysts are expecting at the moment. Got it, but I guess kind of, maybe kind of longer term on NII, and Jamie and Jeremy both kind of been up front. Yeah On this overearning, on NII kind of thesis. But then, you know, earlier, talking about massive growth in kind of retail deposit market share, strong growth- Yeah - in credit card market share. Maybe just talk to kind of maybe more longer term. No, longer term, it will be very good. I think that, that particularly next year is going to be a bit more challenged. So all the things that I mentioned, we are really feel very comfortable that we're going to achieve them. So the performance of the company in the long term, it will be great. The performance of the company next year will be very good, too, but the NII expectations are a bit too high. That I just want to reprice that a bit. Got it. And so less than $90 billion, you want to maybe find, give us a range, or? Leave it to Jeremy. He's the CFO. Maybe we'll go to the next ARS question so I'm gonna push my luck here on 2025 but I guess maybe for 2024 expenses you got it kind of fairly consistent with that $92 billion number. You know, I think, I guess, how you're thinking about that and then maybe how you're kind of thinking about expenses as we approach next year. That is within the ballpark or is most likely going to happen. There are two components, so expenses this year will be slightly up based on revenue-related expenses. But then some of the investments, they've been the hiring related to certain areas of investment, they've been going slower than we were expecting, that more or less the two cancel each other. That's why the $92 billion is still a reasonable number to have in mind. For next year, I think that the numbers that the analysts are expecting is a bit, also a bit too optimistic because for a variety of reasons. So one of them is there is still inflation, so there is some inflation adjustment for next year. Some of the delays on investment of this year will hit, some will hit next year, and the annualization of the investment that we have done will hit next year, too. It will be some new investments that we are going to make. So there are a bunch of components that tell us that probably the number of expenses will be a bit higher than what is expected at the moment. That we will provide more guidance later in the year. But so something to keep in mind. Okay, so just to recap, trading up 15% year-on-year in 3Q, IB's flat, up 2% year- over- year in 3Q. Then it sounds like no change to the 2024 guidance of $91 billion in expenses and NII, $92 billion in expenses. As we begin to think about 2025, consensus of $90 billion for NII may be a little bit too optimistic, and I think consensus for expenses next year, $93.7 billion or so, will be higher than that. It will be a bit higher than that. And then, I guess when you think about, you mentioned investments, anything new in particular we haven't discussed or kind of more kind of business as usual? There are investments related to all the areas that I mentioned to our growth. And then we have the big agenda still continues to be technology and artificial intelligence. The process of modernization of the technology stack, going to the cloud, going to the new data centers, refactoring applications, having a technology stack that is modern and effective and efficient, that allow us to deliver more with the dollars of investment, there is still that agenda requires a lot of work. We make a huge amount of progress, but it's still a long way to go. And artificial intelligence, I think that it will be very transformational. At the moment, if you guys remember, at Investor Day, I mentioned one number that is the benefit that we see related to deployment of artificial intelligence. I said that it was last year between $1 billion-$1.5 billion. I think that this year is heading more towards $2 billion, and a lot of that is related to prevention of fraud. And there are all kind of benefits, but fraud is being a big beneficiary. Going forward, we think that artificial intelligence, large language models, will have, and we are doing a lot of work on this, over the medium to long term, a big impact in improving processes and efficiencies in the operational services that we have. We have, I don't know, 100,000- 150,000 people doing operational things or in call centers or things like that. Artificial intelligence will have a big impact in many domains, in the way that we manage documents, in the way that we manage voice, emails. And we are doing two things. So one is going through the big areas where we have operational services and look at every single process to be optimized using artificial intelligence and large language models. And the second one is we deploying what we call LLM, LLM Suite to hundreds, to almost every employees. At the moment, it's being deployed to 140,000 employees, and is to help them to do the job that they do, one, is optimized, as effective as possible. I think that the combination of the two over the next 3-5 years will really make a difference in either we'll be able to process a lot of more for the same money or to spend less. I think that operational efficiencies, in my view, it will be the biggest impact over the short to medium term, rather than any of the other use cases that you could probably heard about it. Helpful. And maybe just kind of touch on credit quality for a moment. I think the charge-off guidance for the Ubisoft Credit Card for the year 3.4% implies kind of a stableish loss rate in the back half of the year, tops, I think, 3.6% for next year. Any kind of maybe some recent softness in data changed that? No. Still, that is what we are expecting. Obviously, as we change a bit the mix over the medium- term, we expect probably that number to go up a bit, because we may do a bit more. We do very little in the less affluent segment, so using technology helps you to really underwrite properly; there probably will be more focus on that. That will, obviously, we will price accordingly and increase delinquencies a bit more over the medium term, but at the moment, 3.4% for this year, around 3.6% for next year is what we are seeing. We haven't seen any deterioration. And then on the commercial front, any areas you're keeping a closer eye on? Yeah. I think that from auto financing to mortgages, to small business, to middle market, to large corporates, we haven't seen any deterioration. Clearly, there is some challenges in the commercial real estate, and probably we haven't seen the bottom of it. We have around $15 billion or $16 billion exposure, and we are very well reserved for that. But as interest rates are coming down, that will benefit, and it will make easier the ability to refinance and do whatever needs to be done in the industry for that segment. Other than that, in multifamily lending, very, you know that we are not exposed or very little exposure to type A. We are mainly type C and type B, where the demand is very strong. Therefore, we haven't seen deterioration at all in multifamily, where the portfolio, that is $120+ billion. Great. Next ARS question, please. Three questions, three minutes. I guess first, Michael Barr is speaking right now. Yeah. I'm not gonna ask you to comment, but if we go by the headlines, it seems like the 20% increase in capital requirements in the industry is going to 10%. Is that good enough for the banks to kind of accept it? You know, there's originally supposed to be a 0% change in capital requirements. Kind of what are your thoughts? We don't know. Obviously, 10 is better than 20, so that's good. The issue is we have no idea what have they changed. And one of my area of concerns is, for example, Markets. So the increase in the original proposal, the increase of RWA for Markets was 60%. In a market that is already consuming a lot of capital, it will totally make everyone to rethink what do you do in Markets or what you don't. So if they are changing that, it will be good because it will be good for market liquidity and the proper function of market, but we don't know. And then there are many other areas. So it's not just the overall number, it's the composition of it, and we have no idea yet what the composition is. That's fair. Maybe put up the next ARS question. You know, Jamie downplays, you know, sizable share repurchase greatly above two times tangible book. You have excess capital. This rollback goes through, you know, a lot of iterations, but you have excess capital. Just, kind of what do you do with all it? Because that number is gonna continue to grow. Yeah. So, yeah, we have, we do have excess capital. So what we think is about the following. First, there is uncertainty about Basel III. Hopefully, that will be clear some way or the other in the next few months, and then we will know what we are going to face. But we are even though I said that the U.S. economy is doing well and it's all good, the valuations in the markets, they are very high. So the S&P close to the all-time highs and 31x earnings, credit spreads at the tightest point or close to the tightest point since the financial crisis. In an economy that is doing fine but is decelerating, with interest rates that they are coming down, but we are not going down to anywhere close to where they were in average in the last 20 years, so it make us think that probably is to continue the policy of modest buybacks for now is good. I think that we will continue to be cautious. We will continue to reassess the situation. Our strategy always going to be to deploy the capital to grow the franchise, but at some point, too much is too much, but at the moment, we are going to stay with the uncertainty around, we are going to be careful. And then we go to the last ARS question. Before we do that, I just want to make it clear for those on the webcast. When I was kind of reading back what Daniel said, I kind of reversed it. So Markets flattish year- over- year Investment Banking fees up 15%±. Just so that's clear. You see the value of having the ER people in the room. Exactly. And this is lastly, I guess, Daniel, you know, we've talked about 17% on average over time for JPMorgan. You know, is that the right number? Could you do better than that? And it was interesting, on the prior slide, kind of use of excess capital. I don't know if people saw it, but non-bank acquisitions was the number one audience response for that. I'm not sure if you want to comment to that. So I think that 17% is a good number for us. It's through the cycle. It will be years where it's higher, years will be lower. At the moment, deposit margins, in particular retail deposit margins, are substantially higher than they are off the highs, but higher than the historical averages. As asset price, as interest rates go down, those deposit margins will sort of correct over time. It will be years where we are above, it will be years where we are below, but 17% looks to be a reasonable place to be, and when you compare with the industry overall, it's not like it's an easy target. Overall, we feel good about it. We think that we can deliver on that. Like, for example, next year, the 17% may be a bit challenged. So, we will see, but the 17% looks fine. Clearly, we are planning at some point to run the company with a normalized amount of capital, so which have that. On that note, please join me in thanking Daniel for his time today. Thank you. Bye.